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Dion Lewis (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
mbrasi
Footballguy
We have always given BB a hard time about his RB usage, but what I've noticed over the past 5-6 years is that he ends up settling into a predictable usage pattern with his RBs as the season progresses. I think he develops his strategy by making adjustments in RB usage as the season progresses.
Right now, its clear that he is bringing Dion Lewis into the picture more. There could be multiple reasons why he wasn't in the picture earlier in the season (breaking him in slowly due to injury/White getting first crack/testing out Gillislee). It seems to me that Gillislee is losing favor and Lewis is gaining favor...this may change again (as Burkhead gets his chances), but what I think we are seeing is the slow development of the NE running game that includes more Dion. I picked him up of waivers last week in two leagues...traded for him as a throw in an another...and want him in my last league.
He can be had for waiver scraps or a throw in for a trade...there is virtually no risk and I want to fill my bench with guys who have upside. I believe Lewis has upside.
I could be wrong and partial because this guy got me to championships in the past.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I just think they have had a different role for him this year. My thought this year is that BB is really using 2 RB positions, passing back and rushing back. The rushing back was 1. Gillislee and 2. Lewis, and passing back was 1. White and 2. Burkhead. Burkhead was starting to emerge in the Saints game, but then he got hurt. And Lewis might have slid past Gillislee for the lead rushing back role. I don't think BB will stop using White as that lead passing back. Burkhead will come in for mismatches with LBs once healthy. I could easily see Lewis just popping up with a 2 TD game, especially as Gillislee doesn't seem as effective lately.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Seems right. It just.....seems weird. Isn't that telegraphing the plays too much?
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
JFS171
Footballguy
I actually think that last part is why Lewis is starting to emerge ahead of Gillislee. I think teams know what's coming when Gillislee is in the game. You can say the same thing for White though.
With Lewis and Burkhead, the Pats can be much more multiple.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
One thing I will say about Lewis is that he is 'in theory' the cuff to both White & Gillislie and an injury to either would probably vault his touches up a solid margin. I simply think he is more dynamic than Burkhead and if White were to get hurt-- he would do so much more with 6-8 backfield targets than Burkhead would.
packersfan
Footballguy
I think he's their best all-around RB which is why his lack of work early on was so surprising to me. He can be a lead back (unlike White or Burkhead) and he's as good in the passing game if not better than White and Burkhead (unlike Gillislee). Durability is really the only concern I've had with Lewis. I'd love to see him a situation where he was locked into around 15 or so touches each game. Maybe he wouldn't hold up with that kind of workload but from a talent perspective I believe he's deserving of it.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I do not hold the same opinion on Lewis in the passing game as you (and others) hold. If you watch White, he is exceptional and lining up where Brady wants him, taking out rushers and giving Brady extra time, and still sneaking out and getting open for dump offs. He also lines up outside and can run receiver routes. And he doesn't get hurt very often. IMO, he has a greater skill set in the passing game than Lewis does, even if Lewis may be quicker / faster / more elusive.
As for workload, NE does not share the same perspective on how much they want to give Lewis the football. He's had 15 touches in 4 games out of 23 games with New England. Given that this year they have 4 puzzle pieces in play (with Burkhead coming back), I don't think any of the backs will be getting 15 touches very often.
packersfan
Footballguy
I'm in Wisconsin. I've seen White plenty.
Like him a lot. Like Lewis more in the passing game. I also agree the Patriots aren't going to give Lewis 15 touches per game consistently. I said I'd like to see him on a team that would.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I like Lewis also, however he does struggle to stay healthy. Not sure that changes much no matter what team he is on. Given BB;s comments in general (games in the first half of season aren't quite as important as later in the year), we may see more of Lewis in December into January than we do now (whatever that means).I'm in Wisconsin. I've seen White plenty.
packersfan
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think it's reasonable to see 10-12 touches from him consistently. Let's say he's the "starter" and gets goal line carries. Is it absurd to think he could get 8 carries a game? Maybe 3 goal line looks and 5 during the rest of the game? Also I think it's reasonable to also count on 2 targets a game.I'm in Wisconsin. I've seen White plenty.
A running back getting goal line carries and 10 touches a game is worth owning IMO and has flex appeal. If he gets 2 catches a game for 10 total yards, maybe 40-50 yards and 50% chance for a score... that's on average 10 points a game in PPR... Maybe not much to see here, but definite turns my head a little. Then again I've barked up this tree before, not sure I want to this year
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Except I am not sure he gets that. Gillislee got a proverbial timeout for fumbling last week. Burkhead has been out and is returning. And we all know the Pats game plan gets revamped from week to week.
As stated above, 15 touches 4 times in 23 games with NE (17%). 12 touches 8 times (35%). 10 touches 11 times (43%). IMO, it's hard to trust a fantasy RB to score consistently when more than half the time he doesn't touch the ball 10 times a game.
Of course, if NE were to start changing how they use him and feed him the ball, have him go back to getting a ton of catches, and giving him the ball regularly at the goal line then that would be different. But they haven't done that, so not really worth discussing that as an outcome at this point.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Going forward, at what point do we call his usage a trend rather than a statistical anomaly? Honest question...
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
He's had 0 games with 15 touches and just had his first game with 10 touches. With injuries and bye weeks, there are probably worse players to slot into your lineup in a pinch. The way things are set up at the moment, Lewis is essentially TD dependent. He doesn't get the ball enough to get big yardage totals, and in PPR leagues he hasn't been very involved in the passing game.
As for what constitutes a trend, we haven't seen anything repeatable from Lewis so far. White has had 10 or more touches in 5 games and Gillisee has 10+ carries in all 6 Pats games. I am not sure things have changed as much as some people are alluding to. NE is still rotating their backs a lot, usually drive to drive and sometimes based on down and distance.
Bottom line, I am not sure Lewis has moved the needle all that much (although he has done a decent job in his limited usage). IMO, he probably gets a couple more touches a game compared to his role to start the season, but no matter how you slice it, he is in a timeshare backfield.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Patriots running game just feels like throwing darts blindfolded. I think the only real reason to have one is just in case a couple of other guys get hurt.
zamboni
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Just to clarify, Gillislee didn't just "get a timeout for fumbling." He actually didn't start the game - Dion did - and didn't get the first carry - Dion did.
THEN Gillislee fumbled the next series, at which point he was benched til the game was at 24-14.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Mostly irrelevant who "started" the game IMO. IIRC, Lewis "started" games this year and has been #1 on the RB depth chart . . . yet literally played a handful of snaps.
Gillislee barely played for the middle half of the game, yet they put him back in for what last year was the Blount role (take time off the clock). Gillislee still got 10 carries mostly sitting out after he fumbled early on.
No matter how people want to dissect this, no one individual RB is getting a ton of touches in this offense, and BB has shown no propensity this year to have a lead dog RB with the other guys serving as back ups.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Just looked at the game logs. No evidence that Lewis started games before this - week 6 was definitely the first week where Lewis got first drive carries.
Agree though that no RB will be a true bell cow.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Games started this season: Gillislee 2, Burkhead 2, White 1, Lewis 1. About as clear as everything else.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Well, you are the one who implied earlier that Lewis started more than once ("games" was the word you used). So not sure why you are disagreeing with yourself.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
At the start of the year, Lewis was listed as "the starter" and number one on the depth chart. I confused that for "starting." He's now been listed as the actual starter for NE 14 times (in 23 games) in his tenure with NE. Has he ever really seen starter touches? He "started" 5 games last year and Blount had a zillion more carries than Lewis.
My point pretty much remains that whoever starts in NE doesn't really matter. Burkhead started twice this year and had 9 touches combined in those games. Put another way, my fantasy teams don't get any extra points because Lewis started a game.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Ok. Agree with your conclusions. Sorry for being difficult - wasn't my intent but can see it might come across that way.
Appreciate your perspective.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
No worries. As a fan, I wished they would utilize Lewis more but he literally hasn't made it through an entire season since he came into the league in 2011. Not sure how that came to be, as one year in college he had 350 touches. He hasn't had that total over his his entire NFL career yet.
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Insein
Footballguy
For guessing who gets the TD it is. Dion seems to be the lead back right now though. They leaned on him to close out the game.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
What is disconcerting for Lewis (and any of the backs) is that the Pats seemed to just rotate them series by series. I am not saying they didn't intend Lewis to be the one closing out the game, but I don't think we can rule out that it was just his series to be in the game either. Burkhead looked good in his time playing. Gillislee not as much. ANd it seems like they are going to stick with White in the passing game.
JFS171
Footballguy
I do agree it looks like they're rotating by series.
One thing that jumped out to me though, on the first drive of the 3rd quarter, Pats get 1st and goal from the 9. Lewis gets 4 up the middle on back-to-back plays, then gets subbed out on the 1 for Gillislee, which was hugely frustrating as a Lewis owner. Then Gillislee watches the seas part right up the gut, and proceeds to run right along the LOS and ultimately lose 2 yards. Had to be super frustrating as a Patriots fan and Gillislee owner, and was frustrating to me as a Lewis owner. Just a gift TD that he completely whiffed on due to lack of vision I have to think.
Probably doesn't help Gillislee's case for goal line work moving forward.
You should join my league, which offers 10-point bonuses if your guy is listed at the top of the depth chart. We also get extra points if, during the week, the coach says, "We need to get him more involved."
I still can't get past the fact that, two years ago, Lewis looked to be the future of the position, the evolutionary Woodhead/Sproles. When he got hurt in '15, White was a clear downgrade in that role. Two years later, White is locked in as a passing back -- but from a fantasy perspective, he's not much more valuable than predecessors like Faulk and Vereen -- and Lewis has become a two-down back who gets targeted about as often as Alex Collins. What happened? Did the injuries take away the burst that made him so deadly in '15?
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He's averaging a career high 5.3 ypc on only 1st and 2nd downs, so no, he seems fine. For reasons we'll never know, he's being pigeon-holed into an early down role.
Yeah, that's the weirdest part. If he were being phased out because he couldn't regain his form, that would make sense. Or if he were a former three-down back shifting to a mostly passing-back role (think Forte or LT with the Jets), that would also be logical. But I can't think of another example of a guy who switched from being a CoP back to a two-down banger. Also, if they trust him on first and second, why not also use him in the passing game where he was so electric two years ago to increase versatility and keep defenses guessing?
Obviously, there's always a lot going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. But I'm having a lot of difficulty understanding the Pats' thought process here.
zamboni
Footballguy
Hard to say with BB, but White is really good in the passing game and maybe BB doesn't need to change what's working.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
BB this week talked a little about Lewis. Said he was doing a good job . . . but so were all the other backs. Also said that Lewis' role will change from week to week. Hoodie sounded like he liked the 4 headed hyrdra approach at running back. I know, not exactly covering any new ground. More confirming what we already expected. He could have been more praiseworthy about Lewis and could have said that he's earned more carries or a bigger role. But he didn't. All the backs are going to continue to have have to carve out a role in limited snaps and opportunities.
Yeah, like I said "reasons we'll never know." There's nothing special about White, but he's getting those fantasy-valuable targets and it doesn't appear that is going to change.
I bit the bullet and picked Dion up in a couple leagues over the last week or two, but haven't been bold enough to start him. He may remain a fringe RB3 the rest of the year, but he'll be a very interesting guy to watch during free agency. I'm going to
if he re-signs with NE.I picked him up, but if he stays at the level he's at now it's unlikely I would start him over my other RBs (Bell, Miller, Duke, BAllen). It was more for the potential of him becoming something close to what he was two years ago. And if Parker doesn't play this week, I may have to drop him for a WR.Yeah, like I said "reasons we'll never know." There's nothing special about White, but he's getting those fantasy-valuable targets and it doesn't appear that is going to change.
I bit the bullet and picked Dion up in a couple leagues over the last week or two, but haven't been bold enough to start him. He may remain a fringe RB3 the rest of the year, but he'll be a very interesting guy to watch during free agency. I'm going to
I'm sure it's something like that, but White is nowhere close to peak Dion. Also, even if you're going to put White in on obvious passing downs, it's weird that Lewis hasn't been getting any targets on stuff like designed screens. Two years ago they were lining him up out wide and having him run slants.
Rushmore
Footballguy
I'm a Lewis owner and also believe he should see a few throws and more usage overall, but I also think White looks a little better than he seems to get credit for. When he got his first action a few years ago, I thought he looked like garbage, but he's gotten much better since then.
Yes, he's definitely better (as he showed in last year's Super Bowl), but I would say he's gone from being worse than Vereen/Woodhead/Faulk to about equal. Speaking in fantasy terms, he's the kind of guy who will put up the occasional monster game, the occasional decent one, and will completely disappear if he gets the wrong gamescript. Which is pretty much par for the course for receiving backs.
In an admittedly small sample, 2015 Lewis was way more than that. He played eight games that year, but he played hurt vs Indy and tore his ACL during the Washington game. In the other six, he either went over 100 YFS or scored a TD. He had reached unequivocal set-it-and-forget-it RB1 status, which is incredibly rare for a receiving back (only others I can think of are SD-era Woodhead and Sproles during his first season in NO, and even they were probably only RB2s).
It just seems weird that the Pats haven't even tried to rediscover that magic.
Shutout
Footballguy
I agree. You would think the Pats would be wanting to see if they can recapture what was pure football magic less than two years ago. If there is any reason to even think they might question their logic, they should go back and watch that play he had against the cowboys where he broke every ankle that could even get into the screenshot. Lewis pulled moves like that routinely that year and there simply are less than a handful of players that can do that consistently. If I were them, I'd put him and white in the game every play and shift during the pre-snap to where one or the other becomes the slot guy. I think it would destroy defenses as any of three patriots wrs flared out, worked the slot or stayed in. Gronk taking his role. Cooks down the sidelines. I think they have all the pieces in the world but haven't shaken the hangover and remorse of what they WANT to do when they had Edleman. That is pretty uncharacteristic of the Pats.
Why would they need White on the field for that? White is a capable receiving back, but he's not better than Amendola or Hogan in the slot.
It seems like every year we hear in preseason that teams with two talented RBs plan to use them both on the field at the same time, which seems like a really smart strategy, but, much like all those red-zone touches Falcons coaches promise for Julio Jones, it somehow never ends up happening. I'd really be curious to hear an explanation as to why.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Bottom line, his carries are trending up, regardless of who is in the game. He had more carries with Burkhead in the game than without. He might have hit a high point this week, or he could keep trending up, but with his injury history I doubt they let him touch the ball more than 15-16 times a game, so he is almost there already.
He has been a very efficient producer in past seasons with that amount of usage.
He has been a very efficient producer in past seasons with that amount of usage.
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packersfan
Footballguy
Loving what I'm seeing but baffled by his lack of usage in the passing game where he so often excelled in the past. That's what's preventing me from going after him too aggressively on the WW in leagues where he's available. I'd be happy to trade 3-4 carries for 3-4 targets in the passing game. If that was happening I think his value would soar.
ahartig
Footballguy
I'm spending about 13% of my total FAAB, 12 team 0.5 ppr. Thinking I might spend more. Seems that he could be a league winner if the Dion of old appears
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
Well we all know he can catch from past seasons, and if its there for a big gain Brady will get it to him. Last game there was not much need for it with a huge lead, but he is 8 for 8 with targets/recs which suggests they are not forcing him the ball, but will take it if opportunity presents it I would like to see him stop returning kickoffs and move those touches to offense. Let Gilly return. I am anxious to see what adjustments they make after the bye. Watching him run he looks great, like Dion of 2015, and his avg of 5.3 ypc suggests it as well. If he had got that TD last game he would be #1 WW, but he's still pretty much under the radar.
ETA: It was a treat to see the behind the QB camera angles toward the latter half of the game (I assume because of fog). Seeing Dion hit those holes was beautiful to watch!
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I loved the carries at the goal line. Being 'that' back in NE can be very valuable.
