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Anybody buying on Demarco Murray? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter xenon
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Koya
Footballguy
Murray was a great surprise this year - primarily because he stayed mostly healthy. That said, more on this board seemed to doubt his skillset than I think is appropriate. He has a nice size / speed combo, decent vision and not bad cutting ability, plus can catch the ball (can also drop it, hardly faulk, but he's great when he does catch it).
The big missing ingredient had been Murray putting in most of a season, which he did. IF he can stay healthy next year, no reason he can't hover around top 6 or so overall, with some upside if they just gave him the damn ball. Then again, you weigh the extra workload with the fear of injury.
The big missing ingredient had been Murray putting in most of a season, which he did. IF he can stay healthy next year, no reason he can't hover around top 6 or so overall, with some upside if they just gave him the damn ball. Then again, you weigh the extra workload with the fear of injury.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Murray quietly put up an awesome fantasy season, and could easily be an underrated fantasy asset going into next year if the Cowboys don't bring in some major competition for him.
I know the question with Murray has always been health, but I think people who didn't own him this year don't realize just how good he was this year when healthy. Part of the reason he fell so much in his year 3 preseason ranking compared to year 2 was that, not only did he not stay healthy in year 2, but when he was healthy he wasn't as good as that super dynamic FF-championship running back we saw in his few starts as a rookie.
This year, he was.
Part of the reason that it's overlooked is that so many of the yards came as a receiver, but an even bigger part is that people aren't really accounting for the fact that he didn't just miss two games, but he was sparingly used in the two games around his injury as well (left in the 1st quarter of the game he got hurt and was eased back in the week he came back). People look at his numbers and think of them as coming in 14 games, which then translates to almost a full season, but really they came in just 3/4's of a season.
In the 12 games around his injury he actually put up 1371 total yards and 9 TDs at over 5ypc. Prorated over a full season that's 1850/12, which would have made him the #3 RB behind only Charles and McCoy.
In short, there seems to be the general perception that he's an injury prone guy that can be a low-end RB1 or solid RB2 when healthy. The reality, this year at least, was that he's an injury prone guy that can be a top 3 overall RB that carries your team on his back when healthy.
I know the question with Murray has always been health, but I think people who didn't own him this year don't realize just how good he was this year when healthy. Part of the reason he fell so much in his year 3 preseason ranking compared to year 2 was that, not only did he not stay healthy in year 2, but when he was healthy he wasn't as good as that super dynamic FF-championship running back we saw in his few starts as a rookie.
This year, he was.
Part of the reason that it's overlooked is that so many of the yards came as a receiver, but an even bigger part is that people aren't really accounting for the fact that he didn't just miss two games, but he was sparingly used in the two games around his injury as well (left in the 1st quarter of the game he got hurt and was eased back in the week he came back). People look at his numbers and think of them as coming in 14 games, which then translates to almost a full season, but really they came in just 3/4's of a season.
In the 12 games around his injury he actually put up 1371 total yards and 9 TDs at over 5ypc. Prorated over a full season that's 1850/12, which would have made him the #3 RB behind only Charles and McCoy.
In short, there seems to be the general perception that he's an injury prone guy that can be a low-end RB1 or solid RB2 when healthy. The reality, this year at least, was that he's an injury prone guy that can be a top 3 overall RB that carries your team on his back when healthy.
Warrior
Footballguy
Murray was a great calculated risk this year.
Next year, he'll be way over-valued. People will pay for 16 games of his production and will likely get far less than that. Just like DMC a couple years back. Just like countless other injury-prone backs after they have a great season.
Buyer beware. Anyone can get injured, but his chances are much higher than most.
Next year, he'll be way over-valued. People will pay for 16 games of his production and will likely get far less than that. Just like DMC a couple years back. Just like countless other injury-prone backs after they have a great season.
Buyer beware. Anyone can get injured, but his chances are much higher than most.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Im buying.a player like him in last year of a rookie contract will be looking to post lofty numbers to secure a huge contract going forward...he was a pure stud this season..Now, 2015 is a different story, once players get the money they become fat cats who underacheive like CJ 1.2k..
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I like the kid. When he's on the field he scores points. Definitely buying but in a dynasty situation his price is probably a bit high now. Time to buy him is when he gets hurt again.
Koya
Footballguy
If he is able to stay healthy again (I'll consider 14 games with a minor injury good enough), he could be in line for a decent pay day. RB is a devalued position in the NFL today monetarily, but there will be a couple teams that could use what he brings to the field... again, if he can stay on the field.
As far as Fantasy, he has just about as much upside as anyone outside of the elite 3 backs or so, especially on a game by game basis. However, for that to happen he needs both health and the right playcalling which has killed him, at no fault of his own. With that in mind, he likely will go a bit too high this year, but once you get to other backs with question marks in the second half of the first round he should be in that mix.
As far as Fantasy, he has just about as much upside as anyone outside of the elite 3 backs or so, especially on a game by game basis. However, for that to happen he needs both health and the right playcalling which has killed him, at no fault of his own. With that in mind, he likely will go a bit too high this year, but once you get to other backs with question marks in the second half of the first round he should be in that mix.
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Faust
MVP
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Who makes the better handcuff for Murray - Dunbar or Randle?
Xue
Footballguy
Dunbar by a fairly large margin. Then Randle. And personally I wouldn't even bother with R Williams in all but VERY deep dynasty leagues. Ruptured patella injuries historically are a killer for NFL-caliber RBs.
How many guys have had them? I know Carnell Williams had two in back-to-back years and when he came back from the second one, he looked about as good in 2009 as he did previously. It's not like he ever set the world on fire. Best season was his rookie year where he managed 4.1 ypc, but he became a much more well rounded back as he got older which helped him (pass blocking, pass catching).
Actually, I couldn't wait. I did a quick google and Buckhalter came up. I don't know if you guys remember him, but he had a few nice seasons later in his career. Better than his earlier years in terms of per touch metrics. This is a rough injury, but not really career threatening.
Given that Williams is only 24 and is 3 years removed from his injury, I don't think that should be your main cause for concern. Personally, the fact that he only had one good season in college (and in the ACC at that) is what would worry me.
Not my biggest concern at all. That would be the fact that he's #4 on the depth chart, with a slim chance at moving to #3….but I wouldn't count on him beating out Randle. My #2 concern is what the ARZ coaching staff thought of him last yr, as he was a healthy scratch in ALL 16 games for ARZ, which is very telling. He wasnt't on the injury report, but yet he apparently wasn't considered either talented or valuable enough to dress even once for the ENTIRE 2013 season.
As for Cadillac Williams, he was a 2005 1st Rd draft pick and put up nearly 1200 rushing yds in 14 games his rookie year. He was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year. It was his only memorable season in the NFL. His 2006 season was a major disappointment and he tore his patella tendon in 2007 and was never quite the same after that. He tried to come back midway through the 2008, but tore the other patella tendon. In his final three seasons (2009-2011) he played in 43 games and rushed for a TOTAL of 7 rushing TDs & 1630 rushing yds. Not even close to the runner he was in his rookie year or at Auburn. In 2010 he did actually have a decent year as he became the 3rd down back in TB, catching 46 balls, after losing his job to the rookie, L Blount.
After a great career at Nebraska, Buckhalter's NFL career was riddled with injuries including an ACL tear and the patella tear. He was never more than a role player throughout his career, as he was part of a 3-headed RBBC in Philly. Only once in his career did he ever receive 150+ touches.
As for Cadillac Williams, he was a 2005 1st Rd draft pick and put up nearly 1200 rushing yds in 14 games his rookie year. He was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year. It was his only memorable season in the NFL. His 2006 season was a major disappointment and he tore his patella tendon in 2007 and was never quite the same after that. He tried to come back midway through the 2008, but tore the other patella tendon. In his final three seasons (2009-2011) he played in 43 games and rushed for a TOTAL of 7 rushing TDs & 1630 rushing yds. Not even close to the runner he was in his rookie year or at Auburn. In 2010 he did actually have a decent year as he became the 3rd down back in TB, catching 46 balls, after losing his job to the rookie, L Blount.
After a great career at Nebraska, Buckhalter's NFL career was riddled with injuries including an ACL tear and the patella tear. He was never more than a role player throughout his career, as he was part of a 3-headed RBBC in Philly. Only once in his career did he ever receive 150+ touches.
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Wasn't there talk of Randle being cut? I'm not sure Williams is entrenched as the RB4.
Caddy was indeed a 1st round draft pick, but he merely compiled his numbers via many touches. His 4.1 ypc in 2005 was not far off from his 3.9 ypc in his first season back from the second patella injury. Best not to confuse totals with talent. A mistake far too many make here.
Sure, Buckhalter never got a ton of touches, but his productivity per touch actually increased after his injuries. The fact that both of these players did not see a steep drop off in productivity per touch after injuries is what leads me to believe that this injury is not as definitively debilitating as I had once thought.
I think the question posed by 'cloppbeast' actually was "Who is Murray's handcuff?" The answer I provided is that it is Dunbar, who despite coming off a torn ACL, is still the 2nd-best RB in Dallas. So, maybe instead of you and I debating/disagreeing on the degree of debilitation a torn patella tendon is to a team's#3 or #4 RB is, we should give an opinion to the question that was posed. He wasn't looking for who is the better option for #3 RB; he wants to know who is the backup to Murray.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Before asking, I kind of thought myself that Dunbar made the better handcuff - just based on measureables. I couldn't find much footage on him though, besides a ridiculous run against the Raiders. I wish I had a better grasp of his instincts and playing style. But, from what little I've seen of him, I not only think he makes a good handcuff to an injury ridden starter, but also a decent dynasty stash.
As for Randle, he doesn't have power, lacks elusiveness, and most importantly, has little burst. Needless to say, I wasn't too impressed.
I didn't even know Ryan Williams found his way to the Cowboys - not that it makes much difference. His injury ridden career has him relegated to 'show me' status. I wouldn't have him on my team until after a decent game.
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Ridgelake
Footballguy
As a Cowboy homer, I see regular reports of Dunbar doing exciting things. I believe the latest news blurb was Linehan comparing him to Reggie Bush. He makes things happen when he has the ball. He'll get regular touches IF HE CAN STAY HEALTHY. That's his issue. Can he stay healthy? So to answer the question, yes, he is the handcuff for Murray.
Not much news on Randle. Or Williams. Or any other RB.
I found the topic of patella tendon injuries more interesting than early June depth charts.
I found the topic of patella tendon injuries more interesting than early June depth charts.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I've been high on Murray before he came into the league and one issue that had hampered him in the past was a weak offensive line but I'm really impressed with how Dallas has rebuilt and strengthened their O-Line.
Fluff piece for the most part that indicates DeMarco should see an increased number of carries but I think the key is the mention of the improved Dallas offensive line.
I think Murray can do damage behind that line if he stays healthy.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/demarco-murray-feels-he-can-handle-an-elevated-workload-in-2014-071614
Fluff piece for the most part that indicates DeMarco should see an increased number of carries but I think the key is the mention of the improved Dallas offensive line.
I think Murray can do damage behind that line if he stays healthy.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/demarco-murray-feels-he-can-handle-an-elevated-workload-in-2014-071614
Faust
MVP
I'm targeting Murray but also expecting him to miss a couple of weeks. I'm hedging that a bit by also targeting Dunbar and investing more heavily in another RB, although I admittedly don't know how Randle would/could be used....the article below makes it sound like Dunbar could be in line for additional work this season.
I think Linehan / the Cowboys will lean more on Demarco in his contract year...not simply because it's his contract year, but because he's one of their best players, the offensive line should be great, and they were more successful in 2013 when the ball was in his hands 20+ times a game. It's anyone's guess as to how many games he'll step on the field for, but I'm confident he'll deliver RB1 value while he's playing. I can get him cheaper than Foster and for the same price as Ball, Bell, Doug Martin, and Zac Stacy, so sign me up.
http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys/post/_/id/4731500/by-sitting-lance-dunbars-value-shows-through
I think Linehan / the Cowboys will lean more on Demarco in his contract year...not simply because it's his contract year, but because he's one of their best players, the offensive line should be great, and they were more successful in 2013 when the ball was in his hands 20+ times a game. It's anyone's guess as to how many games he'll step on the field for, but I'm confident he'll deliver RB1 value while he's playing. I can get him cheaper than Foster and for the same price as Ball, Bell, Doug Martin, and Zac Stacy, so sign me up.
http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys/post/_/id/4731500/by-sitting-lance-dunbars-value-shows-through
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chad in Indy
Footballguy
I've never been a huge believer in "contract year" theories. Been burned too many times chasing it. I do however think the following1.) if he can manage 14 games for the season, I can't see him finishing outside the top 10.
2.) if he makes it through a season AND the coaches implement him like the preseason talk is going, he could finish top 3 (pretty bullish)
3.)He's one of the few backs w/o someone to steal 3rd downs and/or goal line carries. I don't see Dunbar as a threat. Murray is a good pass catching back and has been good in pass protection too.
I think his ADP is accurate, but I think he's a much safer pick and has better upside than Ball who is going in the same range. Personally, I'm buying.
need2know
Footballguy
how would you rank the rbs around murray? say foster, ball, murray, lynch, gio, bell
is dunbar the sure handcuff?
chad in Indy
Footballguy
I like doing tiers instead of pure ranking, but if I was forced i(with these players) I'd go Murray, Lynch, Bell, Ball, Gio, Foster.
FWIW, I will be avoiding Foster, and Gio would have to come at a discount for me this year.
I started a thread about the effects of the refs calling pass interference/holding. It's speculation, but I think if it carries into reg. season, players like Gio/Spiller/Ellington will lose touches. For players already at risk of losing goal line carries, they now become threatened to lose plays between the 20's to defensive penalties.
Imagine those players losing dump offs/check downs. Scenario: 1st and 10; check down that goes for 9yds, but also has an illegal contact flag. That leaves the coach a choice of 2nd/1 or take the 5 yds and get a 1st/10. They'll take the 1st down all day and you lose 9 yds for fantasy purposes. You can extrapolate the effects over a game/season. If the flags keep flying, regardless of whether or not defenses adjust, it will mean more downfield passing. While this has a negative effect on all RBs it will have less an effect on those guaranteed the lions share of running plays and goal line carries.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't think this is at all far-fetched, and I don't think it requires any new implementation of him. Murray was nearly a top 3 back in PPG last year.
The thing most people overlook when looking at his numbers is that his stats really came in 12 games, no 14. He was hurt and missed two games so people take those out, but neglect to notice that the game he got hurt in he only played a couple of snaps before his injury, and the game he came back he barely played as they eased him back in (I think he only had 3 carries).
In the 12 games that Murray was healthy for last year he put up 1381/8, which over a full season projects out to 1841/11 and would have put him at RB4 just behind Forte/McCoy/Charles.
I understand that counting on Murray to stay healthy is a longshot, but I think people underrate how good he's been when he actually is healthy. All signs from the offseason only point to that improving, so his upside from a PPG standpoint is much higher than people give him credit for.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
When you look at what Bell/Bush did last year, it makes me pretty comfortable that Murray can catch 80 passes and mitigate that.
bigmiiiiike
Footballguy
The D was awful last year too and Murray still put up great per game numbers.
As a Cowboys fan, acknowledging how bad our D is this year, I pray that Garrett/Linehan lean heavily on the run and short passing game to control the clock, a la what the Chargers did down the stretch last year. With Smith, Free, Fredrick, and Martin, we have an offensive line that can allow us to sustain long drives, and ball control is the only way I see us keeping opposing teams from scoring 30+ points. I am unsure that it'll play out this way, as Garrett historically is quick to abandon the run (Murray will still catch passes and be a RB1 for fantasy purposes), but I don't think this is the best way to manage the Cowboys this season. Either way, Murray should be a stud if healthy.
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MattFancy
Footballguy
I like Murray the most outside of the big 5 RBs (McCoy, Charles, Forte, AP, Lacy). Think he'll be a factor in the passing game and if Dallas is smart, they'll run the ball more this year since their defense is so awful. Think he has the best chance of anyone to crap the top 5 at the RB position.
jurb26
Footballguy
I was going to say this exact thing. The defense was awful last year and Murray was a stud. The D has little to no bearing on him IMO. He's already proven to clear that hurdle with ease. I hope Dal sticks to the run more this year vs. last. Some of their play calling and decisions in the 2nd half of games was mind numbingly silly. I don't think Murray needs then too but it would be nice.
Dondante
Footballguy
Not a dig, but this is really the key part of this prediction. Have they been? Will they be? The Dal offense as a whole is on my radar simply because of the talent there - primarily the O-Line (surprised to say that at this point). IMO they're a wildcard for all the wrong reasons. From a fantasy standpoint I'll be looking for value from them, but I won't reach bc of the unknowns.
Faust
MVP
Is DeMarco Murray a 'bell cow?'
http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas-cowboys/post/_/id/4731699/is-demarco-murray-a-bell-cow
http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas-cowboys/post/_/id/4731699/is-demarco-murray-a-bell-cow
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
If I were going to pick up someone I'd go with Randle. So I guess it isn't clear. I just think Randle fits the 3-down role better, while Dunbar seems more like a COP.
need2know
Footballguy
drfeelgood
Footballguy
I think Murray will be very good this year if he stays healthy, but I'm not sure limiting his touches will make a difference in his health. He has been underused since playing for Dallas, but he still manages to get hurt. I think his tendency to get banged up has more to do with his running style than how many times he touches the ball.
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