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Stock Thread (30 Viewers)

FreeBaGeL said:
I could be totally off base here as I am far from an expert in these things, but isn't one major difference that with a SPAC the company negotiates the price themselves whereas with an IPO a 3rd party dictates what they think is a fair price?

So if ABNB believed they were a $100 billion company they could have shopped around to find a SPAC that was willing to merge at that price.  But going the IPO route ABNB believing that they were $100 billion company is irrelevant because a 3rd party decided they were a $30 billion company and priced them there.
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That’s like saying that the SPAC guys who usually put in secondary money are just going to bend over and take whatever valuation the company wants. Why would I go IPO if the underwriters tell me they think we are worth half and I’ll just have to take it? I’d think the valuation for any company whichever route should be similar, right? One main difference I see is that with an IPO, they get to test out the valuation and gauge interest and in the recent hot IPOs they basically doubled the agreed upon valuation.

ABNB got over $3B in cash. There’s no SPAC so far that has had that much cash and just like SPACs, all companies are giving up just a portion of their company so the pop is good for any of the companies.

I think @CR69 said something that I think is telling. He said that if WeWork went SPAC they wouldn’t have had an issue and I think he’s right. I don’t think that all of these SPACs are run by solid teams so there are a lot of questionable companies going public and as long as the promoters walk away (that Harvard study showed the fees were way more in  typical SPACs) with money they don’t care. The investors aren’t their clients so lower quality companies can go public.

Don't get me wrong, I’m still into some SPACs that haven’t merged and owned a bunch of them, but I think there’s a lot of meh ones that have big premiums.

 
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[icon] said:
$FLGT Holders: this have room to run or should we be locking in some gains and waiting on a dip? What are your targets/endgame? 
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Long term it will do well. I bought back in at $109 and probably should have bought more but I do think they’ve run up way too fast. No idea if I’ll get in cheaper or not. Just hard to buy this high.

 
stbugs said:
That’s like saying that the SPAC guys who usually put in secondary money are just going to bend over and take whatever valuation the company wants. Why would I go IPO if the underwriters tell me they think we are worth half and I’ll just have to take it? I’d think the valuation for any company whichever route should be similar, right? One main difference I see is that with an IPO, they get to test out the valuation and gauge interest and in the recent hot IPOs they basically doubled the agreed upon valuation.
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Well of course, they have to find someone willing to pay it, or negotiate on a number in between, which might still be a win given how miserable these underwriters have been at pricing IPOs lately.

If you sell your house you list it for a price that you think it's worth, say $800k, and try to find a buyer willing to pay that.  If a buyer comes in and thinks it's too much you can either negotiate it down or reject their offer and wait for another buyer to pay more, repeating until you eventually find a price a buyer is willing to pay that you're willing to take.

Going the IPO route is like saying "I want to sell my house, and this buyer is interested, so we're going to agree to a sale and we'll price it at whatever the appraiser says it's worth".  Only the appraiser is known for hideously underpricing houses and he's probably going to price it at $400k even though the same model home next door is currently worth $750k.

This all kind of circles back to the discussion of whether the market is supply and demand or just a pit of fundamentals.  The dinosaur underwriters still see it as the latter, but the market is clearly not behaving that way.  What would an IPO underwriter price ZM or TSLA at if they were going public right now?

 
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Nigel said:
Had an order loaded up this am and didn't pull the trigger, f me. 
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Same. Wasn't going big, but some.

🤷🏽‍♂️ This would have been in the account which seems to be my rabbit foot.  It's gone up 125% since Jan 1 2020. None of my other accounts come close. 

 
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stbugs said:
ABNB got over $3B in cash. There’s no SPAC so far that has had that much cash and just like SPACs, all companies are giving up just a portion of their company so the pop is good for any of the companies.

I think @CR69 said something that I think is telling. He said that if WeWork went SPAC they wouldn’t have had an issue and I think he’s right. I don’t think that all of these SPACs are run by solid teams so there are a lot of questionable companies going public and as long as the promoters walk away (that Harvard study showed the fees were way more in  typical SPACs) with money they don’t care. The investors aren’t their clients so lower quality companies can go public.

Don't get me wrong, I’m still into some SPACs that haven’t merged and owned a bunch of them, but I think there’s a lot of meh ones that have big premiums.
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CCIV is 2B.  IPOE is 1.1B.  So there are some big ones out there.

I'm interested in ones you think are meh.  I'm in 9 right now, I think.  All have either great managers (Chamath, Thiel), have proven themselves with a good deal in a previous one, or recommended by SFBayDuck.  The latter being the best ones, of course.  :P

 
FreeBaGeL said:
.

Going the IPO route is like saying "I want to sell my house, and this buyer is interested, so we're going to agree to a sale and we'll price it at whatever the appraiser says it's worth".  Only the appraiser is known for hideously underpricing houses and he's probably going to price it at $400k even though the same model home next door is currently worth $750k.
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So, they're getting a VA loan? 

 
@stbugs @FreeBaGeL

So I also understand the IPO process to be the same with a third party setting the price with the expectation that there's a cushion built in because of course they don't want their big fish to lose money when trading starts. But if I'm wrong then yeah there's not that much of a difference except like you said where these SPACs are getting nowhere near the scrutiny companies do during an IPO. It's like there's no way half of these EV companies pan out but suddenly they're all worth billions via a SPAC. Wild times friends. 

 
Sand said:
CCIV is 2B.  IPOE is 1.1B.  So there are some big ones out there.

I'm interested in ones you think are meh.  I'm in 9 right now, I think.  All have either great managers (Chamath, Thiel), have proven themselves with a good deal in a previous one, or recommended by SFBayDuck.  The latter being the best ones, of course.  :P
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PSTH is 5B.

But yea I only brought up ABNB because I was familiar with them so I could spit out some off the cuff numbers without having to take the time to look it up.  The question was presented more of a general one though, and in general companies aren't looking for near the cash ABNB was.

 
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BassNBrew said:
FU Bezos.  Get out of dodge now and not 3rd QTR.  You're single-handedly dragging down the NASDAQ. 
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Please post 1 week before Bezos is out.  I'm gonna load up  :lmao: :banned:

 
Sand said:
CCIV is 2B.  IPOE is 1.1B.  So there are some big ones out there.

I'm interested in ones you think are meh.  I'm in 9 right now, I think.  All have either great managers (Chamath, Thiel), have proven themselves with a good deal in a previous one, or recommended by SFBayDuck.  The latter being the best ones, of course.  :P
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You also have PIPEs that add cash to the deals increasing the reach. UWMC was a $16B deal, just with even lower than usual float.

I personally think SPACs are pretty fascinating things. It's allowing public investors to access companies at an earlier stage than before. I think we are in the very early innings of how this story will play out and I am enjoying the profits so far.

 
Sand said:
CCIV is 2B.  IPOE is 1.1B.  So there are some big ones out there.

I'm interested in ones you think are meh.  I'm in 9 right now, I think.  All have either great managers (Chamath, Thiel), have proven themselves with a good deal in a previous one, or recommended by SFBayDuck.  The latter being the best ones, of course.  :P
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Starting a position in IPOE in the AM

 
Desert_Power said:
I personally think SPACs are pretty fascinating things. It's allowing public investors to access companies at an earlier stage than before. I think we are in the very early innings of how this story will play out and I am enjoying the profits so far.
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I crunched the numbers on my SPAC exposures tonight. I currently own 13 different SPACs, 2 are post-merger (I started a DKNG position months post merger, so is not included). This activity started in mid-October. I have not sold any shares thus far.

Mean price per unit was at 11.51. Total return to date is 73%. LOAK (now DNMR) is the leader at 402%. Only RBAC (1%) and VSPR (3%) have lost money.

 
KGB said:
Starting a position in IPOE in the AM
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3 stocks to look into purchasing from Motley. 

1. DermTech

Between 4 million and 4.5 million surgical skin biopsies are performed each year. Only around 180,000 cases of melanoma are found from these biopsies. That's a lot of cutting that ultimately proves unnecessary. Worse, these skin inspections sometimes fail to detect when melanoma or other skin cancer is present.

DermTech (NASDAQ: DMTK) addresses these problems. The company currently markets its Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA) for diagnosing melanoma. There's no cutting required. Instead, an adhesive patch is placed on the skin, then removed and sent to a lab. Genomic testing is performed on the lesion to determine if the individual has melanoma. 

This approach is 17 times less likely to miss a melanoma diagnosis. It's nearly 25% less expensive than surgical biopsy. Is there a big market for such a game-changing technology? You bet. DermTech estimates its total addressable market in skin cancer is close to $10 billion per year. 

For now, the company is focused only on melanoma. However, its pipeline includes other products in development that could enable DermTech to target other types of skin cancer. The company's market cap currently stands at around $1 billion. DermTech should have a massive growth runway ahead of it. 

2. Fiverr

Welcome to the gig economy. Freelancing is bigger than ever. The COVID-19 pandemic poured fuel on the fire, with more people working from home or out of work altogether and looking for ways to make more money. 

There are multiple websites that connect freelancers to buyers. But Fiverr (NYSE: FVRR) removes the friction with its technology platform. Freelancers don't have to bid on work. They simply post their price. Buyers of digital services know exactly what they'll get for exactly how much money.

Fiverr's "service-as-a-product" approach creates a flywheel effect. The more freelancers use its platform, the more buyers spend on the platform. The more buyers use Fiverr, the more they like it. That results in increased spending, which attracts even more freelancers to even more opportunities. 

After its stock skyrocketed 730% in 2020 and rose by a double-digit gain so far this year, Fiverr's market cap is now close to $8 billion. Huge growth prospects still lie ahead, though. Fiverr estimates its addressable market is around $115 billion. 

3. Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings V 

If you really want to get in early on a great growth stock, check out Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings V (NYSE: IPOE). It's one of Chamath Palihapitiya's special purpose acquisitions companies (SPACs). IPOE is in the process of taking fintech start-up SoFi public in the near future.

SoFi provides an app that pulls a full suite of financial products into one integrated solution. These include peer-to-peer payments, buying and selling stocks and cryptocurrencies, and securing home loans. SoFi also offers a credit card and has a customer rewards program.

The fintech company projects 75% member growth in 2021. It expects to almost double the number of its members who use multiple products under its umbrella.

Buying IPOE now allows investors to get in early on SoFi's tremendous growth potential. The SPAC stock is already up more than 20% year to date. It could go a lot higher before the SoFi IPO.

 
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Anyone see the release of Motley's new stock this week through Extreme Opportunities: Augmented Reality & Beyond has uncovered?

 
Desert_Power said:
I crunched the numbers on my SPAC exposures tonight. I currently own 13 different SPACs, 2 are post-merger (I started a DKNG position months post merger, so is not included). This activity started in mid-October. I have not sold any shares thus far.

Mean price per unit was at 11.51. Total return to date is 73%. LOAK (now DNMR) is the leader at 402%. Only RBAC (1%) and VSPR (3%) have lost money.
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I also looked at Motley Fool stocks I have bought since Sept. That average return is 31% on 31 different securities

 
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Any of you have an opinion on 403b accounts through equitable?  My rate of return is 2.67% ( that's only this YTD, last year was 18.46%, not bad).  Just awful. Seems like a waste to invest through there. 

Does anyone know if and how you can move money invested in a 403b out and elsewhere?  Penalties?

 
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Desert_Power said:
I crunched the numbers on my SPAC exposures tonight. I currently own 13 different SPACs, 2 are post-merger (I started a DKNG position months post merger, so is not included). This activity started in mid-October. I have not sold any shares thus far.

Mean price per unit was at 11.51. Total return to date is 73%. LOAK (now DNMR) is the leader at 402%. Only RBAC (1%) and VSPR (3%) have lost money.
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Anyone trailing me on SPACs should be listening to you instead!  I own 15 at a mean cost of $11.02.  But I'm only up 22%, with ACTC at 145% and DPHC/RIDE at 125% the leaders, none in the negative as of today.  SPAQ/FSR and DPHC/RIDE are the only post-merger ones I'm currently holding.  Other than those two I didn't really get into this until I bought IPOF in mid-December, so you've got two months on me.  I have trimmed some gains from QELL and RIDE to invest in others.  

For me most of this is my "savings account" money, as I'm really focused on buying not too far above that $10 mark with the goal of earning a few points with minimal downside risk, and the hope to hit a double or triple here and there.

 
Swaymoney said:
Any of you have an opinion on 403b accounts through equitable?  My rate of return is 2.67%.  Just awful. Seems like a waste to invest through there. 

Does anyone know if and how you can move money invested in a 403b out and elsewhere?  Penalties?
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Equitable usually has high expenses, I’d leave them if you can.  If you are no longer working for the institution that offered the plan you can roll it over to an IRA.  If you are still working at said institution then explore other providers if that’s offered.  If you are still working but over 59 1/2 you may be able to do an in-service rollover.  Depends on the plans rules. 

 
SFBayDuck said:
For me most of this is my "savings account" money, as I'm really focused on buying not too far above that $10 mark with the goal of earning a few points with minimal downside risk, and the hope to hit a double or triple here and there.
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This is exactly my strategy as well. Only started last week and I already have more gains than I would’ve gotten in 2 years with my high-yield savings account. Should’ve been doing this a long time ago.

 
SFBayDuck said:
Anyone trailing me on SPACs should be listening to you instead!  I own 15 at a mean cost of $11.02.  But I'm only up 22%, with ACTC at 145% and DPHC/RIDE at 125% the leaders, none in the negative as of today.  SPAQ/FSR and DPHC/RIDE are the only post-merger ones I'm currently holding.  Other than those two I didn't really get into this until I bought IPOF in mid-December, so you've got two months on me.  I have trimmed some gains from QELL and RIDE to invest in others.  

For me most of this is my "savings account" money, as I'm really focused on buying not too far above that $10 mark with the goal of earning a few points with minimal downside risk, and the hope to hit a double or triple here and there.
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I bought the IPOD/E/F on their first day of trading after someone mentioned them in here. Getting in early seems key. Also why I like SPCX so much since it just rides the early NAV pops.

 
Sand said:
I think it still has room to run as long as the SoFi deal goes through.  Luckily I've been in since they IPO'ed and it's far and away my best performer in the last few months.  I should have bought 30k shares instead of 300, though.  :P

Not selling.   ♦️ ✋🤚
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Hope it does too!  I need to start getting in early on these SPACs.  

 
KGB said:
Hope it does too!  I need to start getting in early on these SPACs.  
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Given how good Chamath seems to be with his IPOC/D/E/F series I'd expect more.   I'll be buying on IPO day and I'm sure there will be chatter in here when G/H/I come around.

 
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Lion to myself said:
Equitable usually has high expenses, I’d leave them if you can.  If you are no longer working for the institution that offered the plan you can roll it over to an IRA.  If you are still working at said institution then explore other providers if that’s offered.  If you are still working but over 59 1/2 you may be able to do an in-service rollover.  Depends on the plans rules. 
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Still working there and not close to that age. I'll have to give them a call. Thx

 
OK, Been reading this thread for months, finally going to enter the fray with basically some Savings that wouldn't kill me if I lost some.  

Looking for some recommendations on some entries to start.  Really looking to learn more.  Been a 3 fund portfolio guy for a while.

 
rick6668 said:
OK, Been reading this thread for months, finally going to enter the fray with basically some Savings that wouldn't kill me if I lost some.  

Looking for some recommendations on some entries to start.  Really looking to learn more.  Been a 3 fund portfolio guy for a while.
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DIS

EBS

are 2 picks im in from Todem.

IF you are looking for riskier, I would just follow when/what people are buying.  but some are more dangerous.  

 
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