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Trying to time bottoms is very hard. If you believe in the company long term I feel this price is a very strong entry point long term. Set it and forget for a while. When it doubles....take your

I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

sponks

1 hour ago, Sand said:

BTW, on the Todem list EXC today has dropped a good bit and is at the bottom of it's channel.  For those looking for a good utility (3.6% yield) this might be a good entry.

Yes, it's boring.

As a corollary to this the long bond is in full crash mode.  Holy moly it has plummeted this year.  This is part of the drop in this one - it's interest rate sensitive.  If one thinks inflation will spike then holding off on this buy may be prudent.  I'm not smart enough to know how badly utilities will be affected by this trend.  If the divvy gets really juicy I'll close my eyes and buy more.

Very glad I rotated out of TLT, though, - saved myself easily 10k this year.

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2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Lol. It’s not just AMZN. All of FAANG is down as well as Tesla. When did they all become boring? At least Amazon is still up with the past two days but boring is not in now. 

People want 10-20% a year, month, week, day now 

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5 minutes ago, SFBayDuck said:

I think there's something to this "CNBC effect" that someone who just trades in and out all day could take advantage of.

Used to be the Wallstreet Journal

Then it was CNBC

Now it is becoming Twitter and newer forms of media that are beating television to the punch (CNBC is shooting itself in the foot with marketing and political content IMHO)

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10 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

Josh Brown just talked about it on CNBC

Thanks for the heads up.

6 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

That's 133%. Sold enough to get my basis out of the commons and warrants. Will freeroll the rest. 

30% in 3 days.  Adios.

6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Freaking crazy. Press releases announcing the date of earnings calls can pop stocks.

Love it.  I've probably been in and out of this thing several times.  After trimming some small dogs earlier, I'm getting back fundamentals.  See profit, bank profit.

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2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Here’s one I might trim. Billy Beanea SPAC RBAC Was suggested by several people here. Sounds like a good story but are people in the business world going to take him seriously? Hi only hold 20 shares so this seems like a good place to start trimming. Thoughts?

I sold mine a while ago for small profit

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Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

NGA has never come close to regaining the highs it reached after the Lion CEO was on Mad Money. Should have seen that one coming, but it's one I kinda want to hold l-t.

Oh, these type of pops never hold.

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1 hour ago, eaganwildcats said:

$100 or bust 😉

For HGEN I'm also in this mode right now with a 5/21 $17.50 call option I have open.  Its up 90% at the present second.  Most people would say I did great on this, perhaps I should cash it out.  In most universes, I would do the same (in fact probably be out well before 90%) but I'm holding for the granddaddy mega hit here. 

 

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3 minutes ago, SFBayDuck said:

Just sold GRAMF on this 13% spike, will look to get back in if it drops back into the low $10s.

Jay-Z will be on CNBC Monday morning, so must be people getting in on the expected pop.

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37 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Lol. It’s not just AMZN. All of FAANG is down as well as Tesla. When did they all become boring? At least Amazon is still up with the past two days but boring is not in now. 

If I didn’t feel so strongly about it going to 4K this year and 10k by 2025 and/or splitting I might have sold some of it off. 

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1 hour ago, hooter311 said:

Grayscale still the best direct exposure. 

2 Canadian ETF's have been approved in the last couple weeks, a us one might be around the corner.

 

Gbtc is only trading at about a 6% premium which is a fraction of historical trend.  I think even an etf will trade at a 2-4% premium.

 

2017 bull run had gbtc trading at a 200% premium.

Added 75 tig ol bitty shares of this one just now. :thumbup:

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2 minutes ago, Capella said:

If I didn’t feel so strongly about it going to 4K this year and 10k by 2025 and/or splitting I might have sold it off. 

I feel strongly as well. It’s tough to watch stuff pop all over the place but I’m sticking to my double in five years goal. I’m about 10% there so far in 1.5 months and any 401k contributions and bonuses just get added into the return. It’s hard, but I’m going to stick to the plan and not get lulled into chasing too much.

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1 hour ago, Sand said:

Damn should have bought that yesterday!

I would honestly treat UUUU the way @Todem treats BLDP.....sure, you can trade it, but I think this is a 10 bagger in due time.  I have it on good authority that management of UUUU is going to seek out some assistance from a rare earth elements processor and the jockey of that particular company is the Mike Smith of REE company execs.  If they can get in bed with him and harness the potential they are sitting on, this is a freaking home run.******


*****In this environment.  In other words, as long as we're seeing a seachange back into REE and industrial metals (uranium, tin, lithium, cobalt, etc) there will be a few beneficiaries of this inflow and if you look around our country at companies that are positioned to benefit from processing rare earths, UUUU is the most attractive gal at the party.  And really, one of the only ones too.

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13 minutes ago, Capella said:

If I didn’t feel so strongly about it going to 4K this year and 10k by 2025 and/or splitting I might have sold some of it off. 

:jawdrop:

 

Curse you if you suck me along past 4k.

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4 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I feel strongly as well. It’s tough to watch stuff pop all over the place but I’m sticking to my double in five years goal. I’m about 10% there so far in 1.5 months and any 401k contributions and bonuses just get added into the return. It’s hard, but I’m going to stick to the plan and not get lulled into chasing too much.

I mean, look...things are great right. Everything is popping. But how are you going to know when to sell and get out and get Amazon back before it moons up again. Being panicked and chasing highs isn’t a strategy. I’ll just keep playing with some of these stocks at 1-2% of my account and keep my Amazon blockade. It’s frustrating though. Might push tesla out the door soon. 

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I've thought long and hard about cutting some AMZN, even if I have to buy it back higher later.

It's just a terrible fit for the current market.  They basically don't care at all about the stock price or shareholders, instead relying on creating a great business that should, over the long run, create a great stock price.

And in a normal market that's true.  But right now the market doesn't care at all about your actual business.  It's all PR and momentum and price action driven.  Companies doing what they can to improve stock price is what gets people interested right now.  AMZN can sell a bajillion dollars worth of goods and it's not 10% as effective in moving the stock price as TSLA/AAPL announcing a split or rumors of an SP500 inclusion or an announcement about share buybacks or whatever.

AMZN is by far my largest holding, and with the way it grew prior to this consolidation it became well over what people would normally recommend for a % that one stock should make up in your account.  But generally I'm OK with that since it's such a great company.  But it's kind of wasted money right now.  Yeah I'm pretty confident it will be up at least 25% in 5 years, but in this current market with that money you can make 25% in 5 days.

I haven't sold yet because I'm just so sure it's going to finally get that spike to $4000 right after I finally give in and hit the sell button on some.  But realistically if I had to buy it back at $4000 in a year the chances are pretty good that money could return more than that difference over the same span.

Of course this is all just thinking out loud.  I've been too chicken #### to actually hit the sell button (I've never sold a share of it) and I probably won't.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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10 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

I would honestly treat UUUU the way @Todem treats BLDP.....sure, you can trade it, but I think this is a 10 bagger in due time.  I have it on good authority that management of UUUU is going to seek out some assistance from a rare earth elements processor and the jockey of that particular company is the Mike Smith of REE company execs.  If they can get in bed with him and harness the potential they are sitting on, this is a freaking home run.******


*****In this environment.  In other words, as long as we're seeing a seachange back into REE and industrial metals (uranium, tin, lithium, cobalt, etc) there will be a few beneficiaries of this inflow and if you look around our country at companies that are positioned to benefit from processing rare earths, UUUU is the most attractive gal at the party.  And really, one of the only ones too.

Is <6 a good entry point IYO?

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1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:

:jawdrop:

 

Curse you if you suck me along past 4k.

It’s going there eventually. When the fun runs out people are going to head back to stocks like this for safety. 

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12 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Do you, you know, work?  I can't keep pace with you.  AND I WORK FOR A HEDGE FUND!!!!!11111

Well I only have to trade and don't have to spend time fleecing little old ladies and the retail investor. 😉

On a serious note...Unless I want to work past 70, I'm short on time and have a lot of ground to make up.  Stupidity had my money in company target accounts and the limited past employer index funds for almost 20 years and fell behind.  Keeping up with this thread is like having 30+ advisors working for me.  Pros like you and Todem pop in with great suggestions.  We've got a bitcoin expert, a few guys that track every SPAC available, guys stalking Cathie Wood.  It's the dumbed down Reader's Digest version of the WSJ and IBD combined.  

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59 minutes ago, Sand said:

As a corollary to this the long bond is in full crash mode.  Holy moly it has plummeted this year.  This is part of the drop in this one - it's interest rate sensitive.  If one thinks inflation will spike then holding off on this buy may be prudent.  I'm not smart enough to know how badly utilities will be affected by this trend.  If the divvy gets really juicy I'll close my eyes and buy more.

Very glad I rotated out of TLT, though, - saved myself easily 10k this year.

I feel the same way.  Added a little more at $41.44.  We will see how it goes.  Willing to add more if it goes lower.

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28 minutes ago, Capella said:

If I didn’t feel so strongly about it going to 4K this year and 10k by 2025 and/or splitting I might have sold some of it off. 

I wish I paid more attention here before.  Bought Amazon at $1700 in the spring and then sold around $2400 when Bezos said he didn't care about shareholders and was going to invest heavily in safety infrastructure for Covid.  Dumb dumb dumb and shortsighted.

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What sites do you guys go to for market news? Sometimes I just want a quick and simple explanation of what caused movement in an index that day.

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9 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I've thought long and hard about cutting some AMZN, even if I have to buy it back higher later.

It's just a terrible fit for the current market.  They basically don't care at all about the stock price or shareholders, instead relying on creating a great business that should, over the long run, create a great stock price.

And in a normal market that's true.  But right now the market doesn't care at all about your actual business.  It's all PR and momentum and price action driven.  Companies doing what they can to improve stock price is what gets people interested right now.  AMZN can sell a bajillion dollars worth of goods and it's not 10% as effective in moving the stock price as TSLA/AAPL announcing a split or rumors of an SP500 inclusion or an announcement about share buybacks or whatever.

AMZN is by far my largest holding, and with the way it grew prior to this consolidation it became well over what people would normally recommend for a % that one stock should make up in your account.  But generally I'm OK with that since it's such a great company.  But it's kind of wasted money right now.  Yeah I'm pretty confident it will be up at least 25% in 5 years, but in this current market with that money you can make 25% in 5 days.

I haven't sold yet because I'm just so sure it's going to finally get that spike to $4000 right after I finally give in and hit the sell button on some.  But realistically if I had to buy it back at $4000 in a year the chances are pretty good that money could return more than that difference over the same span.

Of course this is all just thinking out loud.  I've been too chicken #### to actually hit the sell button (I've never sold a share of it) and I probably won't.

This is me to a T.  Amazon is currently 27% of my account.  It had been closer to 35%, but the gang of 158 has beat it back. Some pretty smart guys here own blockades of the stuff so I'm hesitant to do anything.  When my 78 yo MIL abandon the HSN for Amazon, I took notice.

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2 minutes ago, Capella said:

It’s going there eventually. When the fun runs out people are going to head back to stocks like this for safety. 

Yep, it will run out and that’s why I’d rather be in solid companies than holding a bag. Heck, I’ve benefited from a lot of these runs, but I’m far enough along the road now that I can’t risk too much. If I know I can get to where I want to be with solid market beating returns, that’s all I need.

I’ll throw out a company I mentioned before KNSL. Earnings last night. Expectations were $.79 for earnings, they got $1.14, $122M for revenue, they got $139M. Stock’s down today. Revenue growth has been 30%, 20%, 40% and almost 50% from 2017 to 2020. Price to sales is about 9, but they are boring. That sales growth is better than APPN who didn’t beat that well and they have a P/S of 50.

I may buy some more KNSL because in 5 years they will be a boring stock but at multiples of today assuming they continue to grow and that should be a decent assumption as the growth rate has actually been increasing the past few years. 

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5 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

This is me to a T.  Amazon is currently 27% of my account.  It had been closer to 35%, but the gang of 158 has beat it back. Some pretty smart guys here own blockades of the stuff so I'm hesitant to do anything.  When my 78 yo MIL abandon the HSN for Amazon, I took notice.

Well, there’s no doubt about their numbers, it’s just the share price that hasn’t followed. That’s why I’m comfortable considering how stretched we are right now. It’s nice to have something growing 30%+ and know that it’s likely undervalued.

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6 minutes ago, EYLive said:

What sites do you guys go to for market news? Sometimes I just want a quick and simple explanation of what caused movement in an index that day.

No such thing.  Most days aren't headline driven and are essentially Brownian noise on top of a line with a slight upward slope.

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19 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Well I only have to trade and don't have to spend time fleecing little old ladies and the retail investor. 😉

On a serious note...Unless I want to work past 70, I'm short on time and have a lot of ground to make up.  Stupidity had my money in company target accounts and the limited past employer index funds for almost 20 years and fell behind.  Keeping up with this thread is like having 30+ advisors working for me.  Pros like you and Todem pop in with great suggestions.  We've got a bitcoin expert, a few guys that track every SPAC available, guys stalking Cathie Wood.  It's the dumbed down Reader's Digest version of the WSJ and IBD combined.  

My PO said it's ok to drive by, I just can't stop and take my pants off anymore.  

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5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Yep, it will run out and that’s why I’d rather be in solid companies than holding a bag. Heck, I’ve benefited from a lot of these runs, but I’m far enough along the road now that I can’t risk too much. If I know I can get to where I want to be with solid market beating returns, that’s all I need.

I’ll throw out a company I mentioned before KNSL. Earnings last night. Expectations were $.79 for earnings, they got $1.14, $122M for revenue, they got $139M. Stock’s down today. Revenue growth has been 30%, 20%, 40% and almost 50% from 2017 to 2020. Price to sales is about 9, but they are boring. That sales growth is better than APPN who didn’t beat that well and they have a P/S of 50.

I may buy some more KNSL because in 5 years they will be a boring stock but at multiples of today assuming they continue to grow and that should be a decent assumption as the growth rate has actually been increasing the past few years. 

I've gotten smacked around on KNSL.  Down 13%.  Just added 50% more.

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1 hour ago, beef said:

People want 10-20% a year, month, week, day now 

Yep

It's funny in a way. My projections are set at 4% annual return plus inflation. 

But if I'm not up 4% in a month (overall) I'm kinda 😡 trading account i expect better. 

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For the utility stock guys, is this just a few that seem to stand out as values like the ones Todem has pointed to, or we thinking a sector jump? 

I've been holding UTSL for a little while now and basically pretty flat.   

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4 minutes ago, Keerock said:

Is <6 a good entry point IYO?

This is the kind of stock I'd advise my MIL to buy and hold and I wouldn't advise on an entry point.  Just put some in your PA and forget about it for a few months to a year.


Unless your MIL goes by the FBG handle BrassNBooooo in which case, have her set an alarm 35 times during trading hours every day to try and scalp pennies.

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26 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Well I only have to trade and don't have to spend time fleecing little old ladies and the retail investor. 😉

On a serious note...Unless I want to work past 70, I'm short on time and have a lot of ground to make up.  Stupidity had my money in company target accounts and the limited past employer index funds for almost 20 years and fell behind.  Keeping up with this thread is like having 30+ advisors working for me.  Pros like you and Todem pop in with great suggestions.  We've got a bitcoin expert, a few guys that track every SPAC available, guys stalking Cathie Wood.  It's the dumbed down Reader's Digest version of the WSJ and IBD combined.  

I know GB....it's just more fun to poke fun at you.  Good on you for finding a nice trading pattern.  :thumbup:

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Just now, General Malaise said:
28 minutes ago, Keerock said:

Is <6 a good entry point IYO?

This is the kind of stock I'd advise my MIL to buy and hold and I wouldn't advise on an entry point.  Just put some in your PA and forget about it for a few months to a year.


Unless your MIL goes by the FBG handle BrassNBooooo in which case, have her set an alarm 35 times during trading hours every day to try and scalp pennies.

Thanks GB.  I'm in at $5.70

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2 hours ago, The Ref said:

What is the best way to get exposure to BTC without buying the coin?

seems like MSTR, Greyscale and the miners are all through the roof and already trading at huge premiums.

 

Any btc stock that has not gone through the roof is not tracking btc very well.

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40 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I've thought long and hard about cutting some AMZN, even if I have to buy it back higher later.

It's just a terrible fit for the current market.  They basically don't care at all about the stock price or shareholders, instead relying on creating a great business that should, over the long run, create a great stock price.

And in a normal market that's true.  But right now the market doesn't care at all about your actual business.  It's all PR and momentum and price action driven.  Companies doing what they can to improve stock price is what gets people interested right now.  AMZN can sell a bajillion dollars worth of goods and it's not 10% as effective in moving the stock price as TSLA/AAPL announcing a split or rumors of an SP500 inclusion or an announcement about share buybacks or whatever.

AMZN is by far my largest holding, and with the way it grew prior to this consolidation it became well over what people would normally recommend for a % that one stock should make up in your account.  But generally I'm OK with that since it's such a great company.  But it's kind of wasted money right now.  Yeah I'm pretty confident it will be up at least 25% in 5 years, but in this current market with that money you can make 25% in 5 days.

I haven't sold yet because I'm just so sure it's going to finally get that spike to $4000 right after I finally give in and hit the sell button on some.  But realistically if I had to buy it back at $4000 in a year the chances are pretty good that money could return more than that difference over the same span.

Of course this is all just thinking out loud.  I've been too chicken #### to actually hit the sell button (I've never sold a share of it) and I probably won't.

I hate to say this.....and please do not take this the wrong way.

Your post is exactly why this market is going to have a sharp correction at some point. Maybe not right away...but the storm clouds are certainly gathering.

Instead of chasing fast money which is never a smart idea with your nest egg, look to trim and rotate into more defensive, boring sectors such as staples, utilities and IMO infrastructure stocks (which IMO are going to be a great sector over the next 4 years of this administration) and are value stocks.

Just some friendly advice.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sand said:

I know why you bought GHVI.  Any thoughts on the others?

I bought GSAH because its Goldman Sachs and they're often the smartest guys in the room. It was mostly sideways until a decent pop today,

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30 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Well I only have to trade and don't have to spend time fleecing little old ladies and the retail investor. 😉

On a serious note...Unless I want to work past 70, I'm short on time and have a lot of ground to make up.  Stupidity had my money in company target accounts and the limited past employer index funds for almost 20 years and fell behind.  Keeping up with this thread is like having 30+ advisors working for me.  Pros like you and Todem pop in with great suggestions.  We've got a bitcoin expert, a few guys that track every SPAC available, guys stalking Cathie Wood.  It's the dumbed down Reader's Digest version of the WSJ and IBD combined.  

Speaking of little old ladies, we have a gal in two of our funds who is in her 70s and runs a goat farm in Jamaica.  She sent me a picture this morning with our Xmas gift next to one of her goats.  She also plays in the NFL pick 'em contest run by @St. Louis Bob and has won a time or two.  Big Dolphins fan because that's the team of Jamaica, mon.  Firecracker of a lady who could buy and sell us 10 times over.

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7 minutes ago, Todem said:

I hate to say this.....and please do not take this the wrong way.

Your post is exactly why this market is going to have a sharp correction at some point. Maybe not right away...but the storm clouds are certainly gathering.

Instead of chasing fast money which is never a smart idea with your nest egg, look to trim and rotate into more defensive, boring sectors such as staples, utilities and IMO infrastructure stocks (which IMO are going to be a great sector over the next 4 years of this administration) and are value stocks.

Just some friendly advice.

 

 

I'm sitting on a big pile of cash in my new rollover IRA and I've used 20% to do some riskier equities but I'm looking for some more less risk adverse options. Any chance you can list a few of the boring infrastructure stocks?  TIA

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16 hours ago, eaganwildcats said:

This probably belongs in the penny stock thread, but I don't frequent there and $FORT caught my eye tonight. Don't think I can trade it on TD, but probably is available on fidelity. 

Market cap = ~26 million

Cash = 7.4M

Bitcoin = 163 coins at ~50K = 8M

Mining ~.15 coins / day -> ~2.8M in revenue at ~50K. Operating costs of ~1M / year. 

Q4 financials should come out soon which may help it get 'discovered'. Fundamentally, I'm not sure it's a great biz, but compared to the other miners does seem to be undervalued. 

Caveat emptor penny stocks usually don't work - do your own diligence :)

 

Welp, thanks a lot TD Ameritrade. Up 55% as of typing, lol. 

 

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3 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

Welp, thanks a lot TD Ameritrade. Up 55% as of typing, lol. 

 

I cannot see $FORT in Schwab or Etrade.  Is the symbol "FORT"?  

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