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Look at what happens when a whisper of an OPEC meeting hits the market. A whisper of a 5% production cut.

When it is official....(and I am not saying this is coming in their next supposed rumored meeting in February) you will see massive short covering and oil will jump to the mid 40's easy.

Be patient. Once the mass destruction of all the small oil/shale/gas players is complete (this is all by design as I will continue to maintain by OPEC) production cuts will come and the price of oil will jump fast and furious. Just like how it fell......it can rise again just as fast. I still believe this has a good 12-18 months to play out realistically. But who really knows. It is a cartel like industry.

This is day traders market right now. Look at these numbers today!

DVN up 10%

HP up 7.5%

WPZ up 5.3%

COP up 5.55%

Crazy volatile market we have in oil. Wow. Traders are having fun with this.

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In the meantime. For you longs out there. Here is a company I think is stupid cheap.

GILD

I also love other bio-pharma like BMY, MRK and LLY. And AGN, BIIB and AMGN

I think long term value in these companies is robust. They sold off briskly last year....take advantage.

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The market opens up big, then gives it all back plus some in the first hour. It's like Groundhog Day, except we usually don't open up big...

Ya gross.

AAPL taking a beating too. Like everything else, glad I got in a week ago when it was only 95 dollars and beat the market!!! /sarcasm

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We will go sideways most of the year. After the election things will happen.

Market hates uncertainty (stating the obvious).

Sideways would be a big win at this point (for longs).

There is way more uncertainty out there than just the election, which is why I'm struggling to find good reasons to buy.

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We will go sideways most of the year. After the election things will happen.

Market hates uncertainty (stating the obvious).

Sideways would be a big win at this point (for longs).

There is way more uncertainty out there than just the election, which is why I'm struggling to find good reasons to buy.

Oh yeah I agree there are more uncertainties. But a big one for our country is who will lead and our economy is growing. Slowly...but still growing.

China, Oil and Europe are the big headwinds.

Yeah...I want sideways LOL. Yield is oh so important during these side way, and short term down market cycles. I am however still convinced we have this year and next year left in the bull cycle. Then 2018 I will go into with extreme caution.

Edited by Todem
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We will go sideways most of the year. After the election things will happen.

Market hates uncertainty (stating the obvious).

Sideways would be a big win at this point (for longs).

There is way more uncertainty out there than just the election, which is why I'm struggling to find good reasons to buy.

Oh yeah I agree there are more uncertainties. But a big one for our country is who will lead and our economy is growing. Slowly...but still growing.

China, Oil and Europe are the big headwinds.

Yeah...I want sideways LOL. Yield is oh so important during these side way, and short term down market cycles. I am however still convinced we have this year and next year left in the bull cycle. Then 2018 I will go into with extreme caution.

The strong dollar is another big headwind.

I'm not sure if you've mentioned it, but what about the 800 lb. gorilla in the room? This bull market has been propelled by QE and ZIRP. What happens when that all goes away?

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I still have over 500 shares of FCX I got at $10.08

I'm fine with holding it for a while, but should I shave some off with this week's pop? todem?

I did a lot of shopping this week:

50 Shares of AAPL (I'm happy with the number I got most of these at.) <$96 - we can speculate all day about their future issues with technology development, but it's as safe a bet as it comes these days to have a stake in IMO.

200 of Citigroup © @ 40.97 - this was just to get some diversification of my long term stuff, as I had no banking stocks. I liked C the best after the research I did over the past month or so

140 CAT @ 58.14 - again just to spread some of the portfolio because I knew I'd be buying a lot of oil this week (I'm with todem on his thoughts there)

The rest is FCX...

and...

SLB (110), XOM (220), UCO (350), KMI (600)

So, yeah....

Go oil.

Can anyone reach out to me with the layman explanation on a margin account and more specifically, the drawbacks of operating one for yourself (besides the obvious of losing your shirt). Specifically, tax implications or credit implications?

I would look to get out on any real rally to the upside. The stock is under immense debt pressure. It's a pretty incredible story considering the amount of assets they do have. But the oil acquisitions have bit them really hard.

It is 50/50 if they survive as FCX at this point.

It's a tough call though to eat a huge loss. I can see a 30% and be happy I am out. but once you get to the 50% plus it is very hard to ever recover that.

Monitor the company closely, read all news related to it. It's a very tough call. I will do some more research as well because it looks like a nice stock to day trade right now (something I rarely do). I have traded the stock the last 3 years and have had an overall loss ....I gave up on it on the last time I was stopped out. I had gains as high as 35% sold it....bought it back...stopped out after going down 20%, bought it back 20% more down...sold 15% up etc etc....it's been a roller coaster. But I got murdered on it this past year.

I've got 2000 shares of FCX, which is a lot for me. I'm in at about $6 a share. It's money I don't really need, but if oil gets back up, and if copper stays above $2 or goes higher, this company could survive. It's a big gamble but this company has a ton of really good assets and Carl Icahn. I'm hoping for a little luck and putting a little faith in Carl.

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We will go sideways most of the year. After the election things will happen.

Market hates uncertainty (stating the obvious).

Sideways would be a big win at this point (for longs).

There is way more uncertainty out there than just the election, which is why I'm struggling to find good reasons to buy.

Oh yeah I agree there are more uncertainties. But a big one for our country is who will lead and our economy is growing. Slowly...but still growing.

China, Oil and Europe are the big headwinds.

Yeah...I want sideways LOL. Yield is oh so important during these side way, and short term down market cycles. I am however still convinced we have this year and next year left in the bull cycle. Then 2018 I will go into with extreme caution.

The strong dollar is another big headwind.

I'm not sure if you've mentioned it, but what about the 800 lb. gorilla in the room? This bull market has been propelled by QE and ZIRP. What happens when that all goes away?

Well we have been waiting for that for a good 2 years now. Here we are. The Fed is finally moving (very slowly though) and we have not had QE for a year.

We have seen this rodeo before when interest rates were near bottom (2002) and started to rise 2003-2007. Then the real estate bubble/CMO's burst.

If our economy is truly recovering we will be fine as interest rates rise (slowly) over the next 2 years. This is why I am confident that we can squeak a positive return this year (if you have good dividend yield in your portfolio I expect a low single digit return in a still historically low interest rate environment) and in 2017 I think we see a much better year for equities. After that I am going to get really cautious and build a lot of cash again (taking profits) and have a highly defensive posture. I am not as bullish on Europe as many so called experts. I realize there stocks look very cheap and some of them I really like and own (UN, TOT, ETN to name a few) but overall I have 90% of allocation to US based stocks. I believe their culture/work ethic is not like ours and their recovery will take far longer and some smaller countries? Forget it.

I am not a wild aggressive investor. My mix is currently 70/30 stocks to bonds in my current portfolio. So when I say get defensive for me that will look like 40% stocks 35% bonds and 25% cash. I have a long term goal and am far away from retirement. I was 100% equity from age 17-35. Once I hit 36 I started pairing back my equity exposure and building out a more asset allocated approach using fixed income and equity hedges. My average client sits at a 50/50 stocks to bonds ratio. Some more aggressive, some more conservative. All depends on their risk tolerance, needs and goals.

Again I am bullish for another 2 years. Then we can re-evaluate equities and bonds going forward in a higher interest rate environment. But from experience I have done really well with stocks in rising interest rate environments. It's bumpy and volatile in the first 6-8 months when rates start to rise, then you get a nice pop....then you need to re-evaluate growth positions.

Certain stocks I still have from 20 years ago that are up 2-300% Stalwarts like XOM, CVX, KO, MO, PM, NEE, NSC, T, VZ, PG, BA, LMT, KHC, GIS, CLX, MCD, WMT, you get the picture. Long term dividend (growing dividend) blue chips.

I keep accumulating shares in great dividend paying companies in down cycles. I am a classic long term value investor. It has worked for me even through two of the worst corrections in our generations history (2002 and 2008). If you can't handle volatility stay out of the stock market. If you need the money in less than 3 years stay out of the market. Seriously just stay out of it.

For me I don't commit money to stocks I am not willing to give at least 5 years to grow. Too many people who sell at lows and the first sign of trouble really don't understand what they are getting into. It's crazy. The lack of experience in the market and the sheer emotional selling is what creates those opportunities for guys like me.

Edited by Todem
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I still have over 500 shares of FCX I got at $10.08

I'm fine with holding it for a while, but should I shave some off with this week's pop? todem?

I did a lot of shopping this week:

50 Shares of AAPL (I'm happy with the number I got most of these at.) <$96 - we can speculate all day about their future issues with technology development, but it's as safe a bet as it comes these days to have a stake in IMO.

200 of Citigroup © @ 40.97 - this was just to get some diversification of my long term stuff, as I had no banking stocks. I liked C the best after the research I did over the past month or so

140 CAT @ 58.14 - again just to spread some of the portfolio because I knew I'd be buying a lot of oil this week (I'm with todem on his thoughts there)

The rest is FCX...

and...

SLB (110), XOM (220), UCO (350), KMI (600)

So, yeah....

Go oil.

Can anyone reach out to me with the layman explanation on a margin account and more specifically, the drawbacks of operating one for yourself (besides the obvious of losing your shirt). Specifically, tax implications or credit implications?

I would look to get out on any real rally to the upside. The stock is under immense debt pressure. It's a pretty incredible story considering the amount of assets they do have. But the oil acquisitions have bit them really hard.

It is 50/50 if they survive as FCX at this point.

It's a tough call though to eat a huge loss. I can see a 30% and be happy I am out. but once you get to the 50% plus it is very hard to ever recover that.

Monitor the company closely, read all news related to it. It's a very tough call. I will do some more research as well because it looks like a nice stock to day trade right now (something I rarely do). I have traded the stock the last 3 years and have had an overall loss ....I gave up on it on the last time I was stopped out. I had gains as high as 35% sold it....bought it back...stopped out after going down 20%, bought it back 20% more down...sold 15% up etc etc....it's been a roller coaster. But I got murdered on it this past year.

I've got 2000 shares of FCX, which is a lot for me. I'm in at about $6 a share. It's money I don't really need, but if oil gets back up, and if copper stays above $2 or goes higher, this company could survive. It's a big gamble but this company has a ton of really good assets and Carl Icahn. I'm hoping for a little luck and putting a little faith in Carl.

I don't think it's a bad bet. They are selling assets right now though to take some of that high debt pressure off. So they are restructuring already. they have too. $6 a share is low. So you can trade this puppy on news. Tread with caution.

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I still have over 500 shares of FCX I got at $10.08

I'm fine with holding it for a while, but should I shave some off with this week's pop? todem?

I did a lot of shopping this week:

50 Shares of AAPL (I'm happy with the number I got most of these at.) <$96 - we can speculate all day about their future issues with technology development, but it's as safe a bet as it comes these days to have a stake in IMO.

200 of Citigroup © @ 40.97 - this was just to get some diversification of my long term stuff, as I had no banking stocks. I liked C the best after the research I did over the past month or so

140 CAT @ 58.14 - again just to spread some of the portfolio because I knew I'd be buying a lot of oil this week (I'm with todem on his thoughts there)

The rest is FCX...

and...

SLB (110), XOM (220), UCO (350), KMI (600)

So, yeah....

Go oil.

Can anyone reach out to me with the layman explanation on a margin account and more specifically, the drawbacks of operating one for yourself (besides the obvious of losing your shirt). Specifically, tax implications or credit implications?

I would look to get out on any real rally to the upside. The stock is under immense debt pressure. It's a pretty incredible story considering the amount of assets they do have. But the oil acquisitions have bit them really hard.

It is 50/50 if they survive as FCX at this point.

It's a tough call though to eat a huge loss. I can see a 30% and be happy I am out. but once you get to the 50% plus it is very hard to ever recover that.

Monitor the company closely, read all news related to it. It's a very tough call. I will do some more research as well because it looks like a nice stock to day trade right now (something I rarely do). I have traded the stock the last 3 years and have had an overall loss ....I gave up on it on the last time I was stopped out. I had gains as high as 35% sold it....bought it back...stopped out after going down 20%, bought it back 20% more down...sold 15% up etc etc....it's been a roller coaster. But I got murdered on it this past year.

I've got 2000 shares of FCX, which is a lot for me. I'm in at about $6 a share. It's money I don't really need, but if oil gets back up, and if copper stays above $2 or goes higher, this company could survive. It's a big gamble but this company has a ton of really good assets and Carl Icahn. I'm hoping for a little luck and putting a little faith in Carl.

I don't think it's a bad bet. They are selling assets right now though to take some of that high debt pressure off. So they are restructuring already. they have too. $6 a share is low. So you can trade this puppy on news. Tread with caution.

Been flirting with the idea of averaging down and scalping in and out of a stock like this or some other stock that has gotten hammered down low liek CENX.

For example, buy 500 shares at intervals of a 1/4 point and then scalp them out for a 1/4.

Example:

500 @ 4.00

500 @ 3.75

500 @ 3.50

500 @ 3.25

500 @ 3.00

Buy the 3.50s and sell them for 3.75...rebuy at 3.50, etc.

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Well we have been waiting for that for a good 2 years now. Here we are. The Fed is finally moving (very slowly though) and we have not had QE for a year.

We have seen this rodeo before when interest rates were near bottom (2002) and started to rise 2003-2007. Then the real estate bubble/CMO's burst.

If our economy is truly recovering we will be fine as interest rates rise (slowly) over the next 2 years. This is why I am confident that we can squeak a positive return this year (if you have good dividend yield in your portfolio I expect a low single digit return in a still historically low interest rate environment) and in 2017 I think we see a much better year for equities. After that I am going to get really cautious and build a lot of cash again (taking profits) and have a highly defensive posture. I am not as bullish on Europe as many so called experts. I realize there stocks look very cheap and some of them I really like and own (UN, TOT, ETN to name a few) but overall I have 90% of allocation to US based stocks. I believe their culture/work ethic is not like ours and their recovery will take far longer and some smaller countries? Forget it.

I am not a wild aggressive investor. My mix is currently 70/30 stocks to bonds in my current portfolio. So when I say get defensive for me that will look like 40% stocks 35% bonds and 25% cash. I have a long term goal and am far away from retirement. I was 100% equity from age 17-35. Once I hit 36 I started pairing back my equity exposure and building out a more asset allocated approach using fixed income and equity hedges. My average client sits at a 50/50 stocks to bonds ratio. Some more aggressive, some more conservative. All depends on their risk tolerance, needs and goals.

Again I am bullish for another 2 years. Then we can re-evaluate equities and bonds going forward in a higher interest rate environment. But from experience I have done really well with stocks in rising interest rate environments. It's bumpy and volatile in the first 6-8 months when rates start to rise, then you get a nice pop....then you need to re-evaluate growth positions.

Certain stocks I still have from 20 years ago that are up 2-300% Stalwarts like XOM, CVX, KO, MO, PM, NEE, NSC, T, VZ, PG, BA, LMT, KHC, GIS, CLX, MCD, WMT, you get the picture. Long term dividend (growing dividend) blue chips.

I keep accumulating shares in great dividend paying companies in down cycles. I am a classic long term value investor. It has worked for me even through two of the worst corrections in our generations history (2002 and 2008). If you can't handle volatility stay out of the stock market. If you need the money in less than 3 years stay out of the market. Seriously just stay out of it.

For me I don't commit money to stocks I am not willing to give at least 5 years to grow. Too many people who sell at lows and the first sign of trouble really don't understand what they are getting into. It's crazy. The lack of experience in the market and the sheer emotional selling is what creates those opportunities for guys like me.

We've never seen this rodeo before IMO. This time they kept rates lower for much longer, plus pumped trillions of dollars into the system via several rounds of QE, which undoubtedly contributed quite a bit to this extremely long bull run we've had. Even after this sell off, the market is up ~175% from the lows in 2009. It's impossible to say how much of that was due to these policies, but it has to be a decent amount. Why shouldn't we give back a chunk of those gains when the fuel is taken away? That's not even factoring in that at some point, that fuel is going to turn into water if/when they remove those trillions of dollars from the system.

Edited by humpback
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Well we have been waiting for that for a good 2 years now. Here we are. The Fed is finally moving (very slowly though) and we have not had QE for a year.

We have seen this rodeo before when interest rates were near bottom (2002) and started to rise 2003-2007. Then the real estate bubble/CMO's burst.

If our economy is truly recovering we will be fine as interest rates rise (slowly) over the next 2 years. This is why I am confident that we can squeak a positive return this year (if you have good dividend yield in your portfolio I expect a low single digit return in a still historically low interest rate environment) and in 2017 I think we see a much better year for equities. After that I am going to get really cautious and build a lot of cash again (taking profits) and have a highly defensive posture. I am not as bullish on Europe as many so called experts. I realize there stocks look very cheap and some of them I really like and own (UN, TOT, ETN to name a few) but overall I have 90% of allocation to US based stocks. I believe their culture/work ethic is not like ours and their recovery will take far longer and some smaller countries? Forget it.

I am not a wild aggressive investor. My mix is currently 70/30 stocks to bonds in my current portfolio. So when I say get defensive for me that will look like 40% stocks 35% bonds and 25% cash. I have a long term goal and am far away from retirement. I was 100% equity from age 17-35. Once I hit 36 I started pairing back my equity exposure and building out a more asset allocated approach using fixed income and equity hedges. My average client sits at a 50/50 stocks to bonds ratio. Some more aggressive, some more conservative. All depends on their risk tolerance, needs and goals.

Again I am bullish for another 2 years. Then we can re-evaluate equities and bonds going forward in a higher interest rate environment. But from experience I have done really well with stocks in rising interest rate environments. It's bumpy and volatile in the first 6-8 months when rates start to rise, then you get a nice pop....then you need to re-evaluate growth positions.

Certain stocks I still have from 20 years ago that are up 2-300% Stalwarts like XOM, CVX, KO, MO, PM, NEE, NSC, T, VZ, PG, BA, LMT, KHC, GIS, CLX, MCD, WMT, you get the picture. Long term dividend (growing dividend) blue chips.

I keep accumulating shares in great dividend paying companies in down cycles. I am a classic long term value investor. It has worked for me even through two of the worst corrections in our generations history (2002 and 2008). If you can't handle volatility stay out of the stock market. If you need the money in less than 3 years stay out of the market. Seriously just stay out of it.

For me I don't commit money to stocks I am not willing to give at least 5 years to grow. Too many people who sell at lows and the first sign of trouble really don't understand what they are getting into. It's crazy. The lack of experience in the market and the sheer emotional selling is what creates those opportunities for guys like me.

We've never seen this rodeo before IMO. This time they kept rates lower for much longer, plus pumped trillions of dollars into the system via several rounds of QE, which undoubtedly contributed quite a bit to this extremely long bull run we've had. Even after this sell off, the market is up ~175% from the lows in 2009. It's impossible to say how much of that was due to these policies, but it has to be a decent amount. Why shouldn't we give back a chunk of those gains when the fuel is taken away? That's not even factoring in that at some point, that fuel is going to turn into water if/when they remove those trillions of dollars from the system.

That's the big misconception. I think it has been pumped up...indeed. But. Corporate earnings are good. Corporate balance sheets are fantastic. Strip out the energy companies and earnings last year were very good overall.

Fundamentally stocks are trading at around 14-15 multiples. Not cheap. But not at the 30 multiples in 2007 when we hit that 14,000 high then was oversold to the hilt in Feb/March 2009. The world was ending. That was a once in a generation correction my friend.

Stocks long term are priced where they should be. Some expensive, some rock bottom cheap and some just right (it is a true stock pickers market right now not an indexing market like 2013). Markets are recalibrating and normalizing right now. I will say it again. 2 more years then get very cautious. This bull cycle is not over yet. This is a normal and healthy correction during a bull cycle. Also Oil has really been a left hook. China an upper cut. But it is all priced in now.

A real recession like correction is still a ways off. Our economy is doing fine right now. Not amazing, not bad. But getting better.

Edited by Todem
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Anyone follow citron research? Left has been on fire for as long as I've been paying attention. One call that hasn't panned out (yet) is Wayfair. They wrote an exhaustive article about it here:

http://www.citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/wayfair-pre-final-d.pdf

It is extremely volatile (and puts are pricey) making it pretty tough to make an entry. Can anyone offer any advice on from a technical standpoint?

"buy": http://www.barchart.com/opinions/stocks/W

Curious as to how this reacts to the AMZN news. The 200 day has served as support on recent pullbacks. If it closes below that, I'll make my entry.

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Well we have been waiting for that for a good 2 years now. Here we are. The Fed is finally moving (very slowly though) and we have not had QE for a year.

We have seen this rodeo before when interest rates were near bottom (2002) and started to rise 2003-2007. Then the real estate bubble/CMO's burst.

If our economy is truly recovering we will be fine as interest rates rise (slowly) over the next 2 years. This is why I am confident that we can squeak a positive return this year (if you have good dividend yield in your portfolio I expect a low single digit return in a still historically low interest rate environment) and in 2017 I think we see a much better year for equities. After that I am going to get really cautious and build a lot of cash again (taking profits) and have a highly defensive posture. I am not as bullish on Europe as many so called experts. I realize there stocks look very cheap and some of them I really like and own (UN, TOT, ETN to name a few) but overall I have 90% of allocation to US based stocks. I believe their culture/work ethic is not like ours and their recovery will take far longer and some smaller countries? Forget it.

I am not a wild aggressive investor. My mix is currently 70/30 stocks to bonds in my current portfolio. So when I say get defensive for me that will look like 40% stocks 35% bonds and 25% cash. I have a long term goal and am far away from retirement. I was 100% equity from age 17-35. Once I hit 36 I started pairing back my equity exposure and building out a more asset allocated approach using fixed income and equity hedges. My average client sits at a 50/50 stocks to bonds ratio. Some more aggressive, some more conservative. All depends on their risk tolerance, needs and goals.

Again I am bullish for another 2 years. Then we can re-evaluate equities and bonds going forward in a higher interest rate environment. But from experience I have done really well with stocks in rising interest rate environments. It's bumpy and volatile in the first 6-8 months when rates start to rise, then you get a nice pop....then you need to re-evaluate growth positions.

Certain stocks I still have from 20 years ago that are up 2-300% Stalwarts like XOM, CVX, KO, MO, PM, NEE, NSC, T, VZ, PG, BA, LMT, KHC, GIS, CLX, MCD, WMT, you get the picture. Long term dividend (growing dividend) blue chips.

I keep accumulating shares in great dividend paying companies in down cycles. I am a classic long term value investor. It has worked for me even through two of the worst corrections in our generations history (2002 and 2008). If you can't handle volatility stay out of the stock market. If you need the money in less than 3 years stay out of the market. Seriously just stay out of it.

For me I don't commit money to stocks I am not willing to give at least 5 years to grow. Too many people who sell at lows and the first sign of trouble really don't understand what they are getting into. It's crazy. The lack of experience in the market and the sheer emotional selling is what creates those opportunities for guys like me.

We've never seen this rodeo before IMO. This time they kept rates lower for much longer, plus pumped trillions of dollars into the system via several rounds of QE, which undoubtedly contributed quite a bit to this extremely long bull run we've had. Even after this sell off, the market is up ~175% from the lows in 2009. It's impossible to say how much of that was due to these policies, but it has to be a decent amount. Why shouldn't we give back a chunk of those gains when the fuel is taken away? That's not even factoring in that at some point, that fuel is going to turn into water if/when they remove those trillions of dollars from the system.

That's the big misconception. I think it has been pumped up...indeed. But. Corporate earnings are good. Corporate balance sheets are fantastic. Strip out the energy companies and earnings last year were very good overall.

Fundamentally stocks are trading at around 14-15 multiples. Not cheap. But not at the 30 multiples in 2007 when we hit that 14,000 high then was oversold to the hilt in Feb/March 2009. The world was ending. That was a once in a generation correction my friend.

Stocks long term are priced where they should be. Some expensive, some rock bottom cheap and some just right (it is a true stock pickers market right now not an indexing market like 2013). Markets are recalibrating and normalizing right now. I will say it again. 2 more years then get very cautious. This bull cycle is not over yet. This is a normal and healthy correction during a bull cycle. Also Oil has really been a left hook. China an upper cut. But it is all priced in now.

A real recession like correction is still a ways off. Our economy is doing fine right now. Not amazing, not bad. But getting better.

So keeping interest rates at zero for ~7 years and pumping ~$4 Trillion into the system via QE didn't have much of an impact?

Corporate earnings are not good- we've had multiple quarters in a row of declining earnings and revenues, which are technically in a recession. Sure, it's not as bad if you strip out energy, but that's like saying "take away their best/worst plays and things look different". Well, no kidding, but you can't do that- they all count.

Likewise, corporate balance sheets are far from fantastic. Corporations added $29 Trillion dollars in debt since the financial crisis, their debt-to-earnings ratio is at a 12 year high, and last year they had the most downgrades of corporate debt since the financial crisis in 2009.

P/E ratio's aren't sky-high, but they are a decent amount above historical averages even after this drop. Margin interest is at all-time highs (well, lower than the all time high set in April, but higher than any other time, including the nasdaq bubble). All of this with unprecedented levels of Fed intervention.

Just curious- why are you optimistic for 2 more years and then pessimistic?

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To be clear, the old man has plenty of dry powder. But 1000 shares would make AAPL his second-largest position, and I don't think he likes it that much. A hundred shares is more likely. He's also 79, and whatever cash position helps him to sleep at night is fine with me.

My retention bonus from last year is on its way to my brokerage account. I don't think the pain is over, but I think there might be some compelling values in the spring.

Update: $95 turned out to be good enough for him on AAPL. Fortunately, he bought 100 shares, not 1000.

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Well we have been waiting for that for a good 2 years now. Here we are. The Fed is finally moving (very slowly though) and we have not had QE for a year.

We have seen this rodeo before when interest rates were near bottom (2002) and started to rise 2003-2007. Then the real estate bubble/CMO's burst.

If our economy is truly recovering we will be fine as interest rates rise (slowly) over the next 2 years. This is why I am confident that we can squeak a positive return this year (if you have good dividend yield in your portfolio I expect a low single digit return in a still historically low interest rate environment) and in 2017 I think we see a much better year for equities. After that I am going to get really cautious and build a lot of cash again (taking profits) and have a highly defensive posture. I am not as bullish on Europe as many so called experts. I realize there stocks look very cheap and some of them I really like and own (UN, TOT, ETN to name a few) but overall I have 90% of allocation to US based stocks. I believe their culture/work ethic is not like ours and their recovery will take far longer and some smaller countries? Forget it.

I am not a wild aggressive investor. My mix is currently 70/30 stocks to bonds in my current portfolio. So when I say get defensive for me that will look like 40% stocks 35% bonds and 25% cash. I have a long term goal and am far away from retirement. I was 100% equity from age 17-35. Once I hit 36 I started pairing back my equity exposure and building out a more asset allocated approach using fixed income and equity hedges. My average client sits at a 50/50 stocks to bonds ratio. Some more aggressive, some more conservative. All depends on their risk tolerance, needs and goals.

Again I am bullish for another 2 years. Then we can re-evaluate equities and bonds going forward in a higher interest rate environment. But from experience I have done really well with stocks in rising interest rate environments. It's bumpy and volatile in the first 6-8 months when rates start to rise, then you get a nice pop....then you need to re-evaluate growth positions.

Certain stocks I still have from 20 years ago that are up 2-300% Stalwarts like XOM, CVX, KO, MO, PM, NEE, NSC, T, VZ, PG, BA, LMT, KHC, GIS, CLX, MCD, WMT, you get the picture. Long term dividend (growing dividend) blue chips.

I keep accumulating shares in great dividend paying companies in down cycles. I am a classic long term value investor. It has worked for me even through two of the worst corrections in our generations history (2002 and 2008). If you can't handle volatility stay out of the stock market. If you need the money in less than 3 years stay out of the market. Seriously just stay out of it.

For me I don't commit money to stocks I am not willing to give at least 5 years to grow. Too many people who sell at lows and the first sign of trouble really don't understand what they are getting into. It's crazy. The lack of experience in the market and the sheer emotional selling is what creates those opportunities for guys like me.

We've never seen this rodeo before IMO. This time they kept rates lower for much longer, plus pumped trillions of dollars into the system via several rounds of QE, which undoubtedly contributed quite a bit to this extremely long bull run we've had. Even after this sell off, the market is up ~175% from the lows in 2009. It's impossible to say how much of that was due to these policies, but it has to be a decent amount. Why shouldn't we give back a chunk of those gains when the fuel is taken away? That's not even factoring in that at some point, that fuel is going to turn into water if/when they remove those trillions of dollars from the system.

That's the big misconception. I think it has been pumped up...indeed. But. Corporate earnings are good. Corporate balance sheets are fantastic. Strip out the energy companies and earnings last year were very good overall.

Fundamentally stocks are trading at around 14-15 multiples. Not cheap. But not at the 30 multiples in 2007 when we hit that 14,000 high then was oversold to the hilt in Feb/March 2009. The world was ending. That was a once in a generation correction my friend.

Stocks long term are priced where they should be. Some expensive, some rock bottom cheap and some just right (it is a true stock pickers market right now not an indexing market like 2013). Markets are recalibrating and normalizing right now. I will say it again. 2 more years then get very cautious. This bull cycle is not over yet. This is a normal and healthy correction during a bull cycle. Also Oil has really been a left hook. China an upper cut. But it is all priced in now.

A real recession like correction is still a ways off. Our economy is doing fine right now. Not amazing, not bad. But getting better.

So keeping interest rates at zero for ~7 years and pumping ~$4 Trillion into the system via QE didn't have much of an impact?

Corporate earnings are not good- we've had multiple quarters in a row of declining earnings and revenues, which are technically in a recession. Sure, it's not as bad if you strip out energy, but that's like saying "take away their best/worst plays and things look different". Well, no kidding, but you can't do that- they all count.

Likewise, corporate balance sheets are far from fantastic. Corporations added $29 Trillion dollars in debt since the financial crisis, their debt-to-earnings ratio is at a 12 year high, and last year they had the most downgrades of corporate debt since the financial crisis in 2009.

P/E ratio's aren't sky-high, but they are a decent amount above historical averages even after this drop. Margin interest is at all-time highs (well, lower than the all time high set in April, but higher than any other time, including the nasdaq bubble). All of this with unprecedented levels of Fed intervention.

Just curious- why are you optimistic for 2 more years and then pessimistic?

Ok clearly your quite bearish. Were you able to to take advantage of 2009-2014? I hope so.

I said no question the zero rates and QE helped, and it was needed badly from where we were in 2008/2009. We are seeing the hang over here. But to think it's all due to QE and zero interest rates is crazy. Companies are doing good. The economy is recovering. Bears scream and pound and once a decade they get it right.

Bull cycles typically last 7-10 years. I am just using my own investing experience since 1987. My own money and wealth has taught me my lessons...not a text book.

I will leave it at that.

Good luck and I hope you do well. If the market corrects some more....so be it. If we go down to 14,000 again so be it. I am highly confident in the companies I own, the dividends they pay and the fact that we will again go north and make new highs.

Like the last 100 years.

Really I don't want to keep going back and forth....it's not worth it. Not because I can't answer.....I just don't need to anymore. For every point I make their will always...always be a bear counter point. It's like those debates you see on CNBC.

This is probably the most hated stock rally in history because so many bears missed the entire run from 6700 to 18,000!!!!

Good luck to everyone though.

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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

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I went with BP and RDS:A again. I put a stake in them last year and bought, in part, for the dividend but also to lower my average per share. I'm now sitting at an average for BP about $34.xx and RDS:A about $41.xx. Still down like most in the past year but that average is much easier to stomach than the previous ones.

Those averages do incorporate the last year of dividends in them. If we're strictly talking about my dollar output, the average would be a little lower but not much. I'm in for the long for the most part so I'm alright with where things are at right now.

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Glad Japan has showed us the way... 20 years of 0% has been doing great for them :thumbup:

Interest rates are a thing of the past - The consumer will only pay them, never receive them ever again.

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That's the big misconception. I think it has been pumped up...indeed. But. Corporate earnings are good. Corporate balance sheets are fantastic. Strip out the energy companies and earnings last year were very good overall.

Fundamentally stocks are trading at around 14-15 multiples. Not cheap. But not at the 30 multiples in 2007 when we hit that 14,000 high then was oversold to the hilt in Feb/March 2009. The world was ending. That was a once in a generation correction my friend.

Stocks long term are priced where they should be. Some expensive, some rock bottom cheap and some just right (it is a true stock pickers market right now not an indexing market like 2013). Markets are recalibrating and normalizing right now. I will say it again. 2 more years then get very cautious. This bull cycle is not over yet. This is a normal and healthy correction during a bull cycle. Also Oil has really been a left hook. China an upper cut. But it is all priced in now.

A real recession like correction is still a ways off. Our economy is doing fine right now. Not amazing, not bad. But getting better.

So keeping interest rates at zero for ~7 years and pumping ~$4 Trillion into the system via QE didn't have much of an impact?

Corporate earnings are not good- we've had multiple quarters in a row of declining earnings and revenues, which are technically in a recession. Sure, it's not as bad if you strip out energy, but that's like saying "take away their best/worst plays and things look different". Well, no kidding, but you can't do that- they all count.

Likewise, corporate balance sheets are far from fantastic. Corporations added $29 Trillion dollars in debt since the financial crisis, their debt-to-earnings ratio is at a 12 year high, and last year they had the most downgrades of corporate debt since the financial crisis in 2009.

P/E ratio's aren't sky-high, but they are a decent amount above historical averages even after this drop. Margin interest is at all-time highs (well, lower than the all time high set in April, but higher than any other time, including the nasdaq bubble). All of this with unprecedented levels of Fed intervention.

Just curious- why are you optimistic for 2 more years and then pessimistic?

Ok clearly your quite bearish. Were you able to to take advantage of 2009-2014? I hope so.

I said no question the zero rates and QE helped, and it was needed badly from where we were in 2008/2009. We are seeing the hang over here. But to think it's all due to QE and zero interest rates is crazy. Companies are doing good. The economy is recovering. Bears scream and pound and once a decade they get it right.

Bull cycles typically last 7-10 years. I am just using my own investing experience since 1987. My own money and wealth has taught me my lessons...not a text book.

I will leave it at that.

Good luck and I hope you do well. If the market corrects some more....so be it. If we go down to 14,000 again so be it. I am highly confident in the companies I own, the dividends they pay and the fact that we will again go north and make new highs.

Like the last 100 years.

Really I don't want to keep going back and forth....it's not worth it. Not because I can't answer.....I just don't need to anymore. For every point I make their will always...always be a bear counter point. It's like those debates you see on CNBC.

This is probably the most hated stock rally in history because so many bears missed the entire run from 6700 to 18,000!!!!

Good luck to everyone though.

I'm not necessarily bearish right now (far from a bear in general), I'm actually looking for reasons to be bullish which is why I like to hear other viewpoints. Unfortunately, it usually comes down to the same things that you're saying- platitudes like "balance sheets are fantastic, corporate earnings are good", etc., but that's just not reality right now. If you have actual data that shows this to be the case, I'd love to see it, but simply saying it doesn't make it so. Debt-to-earnings are at 12 year highs, and earnings and revenues have been falling- how is that "fantastic" or "good"?

Yes, I certainly took advantage of the huge drop, but that's in the past and I'm trying to position myself for the future. I'm not sure if you're actually reading the posts at this point, but clearly I never said the entire move was due to QE and ZIRP- if I thought that was the case I'd be expecting an apocalyptic scenario. However, putting things into perspective, if you think that say ~20% of the move was due to those policies, and we've had a 175% move up during that time, that's a pretty substantial amount.

No worries if you don't want to keep going back and forth- I'm more interested in data than rhetoric myself.

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My feelings on the market are also becoming more bearish - I was kinda neutral, but I see no reason for optimism. Revenues have been declining steadily and without free money from the government, I don't see the growth - Furthermore, with debts ballooning, I can see another crisis in the next 2-3 years coming. I'm staying sidelined for the most part until we hit another "world is over" kinda moment. It prob sounds insane to those that are optimists, but we have become a global economy heavily reliant on central banks and stimulus.

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I'd just be careful on the oil GB...

Russia/OPEC all play this same "maybe there will be cuts" bull#### frequently. None of them are giving up market share - There won't be cuts, be careful.

In fact, it is the opposite... More and more oil is coming online while demand is fizzling.

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Is there any benefit to owning PSX, OXM, HOL, etc individually, as opposed to owning an ETF like VDE instead?

Bueller?

It's the same as owning any individual stock vs. the broader ETF. You're generally going to get a higher risk/reward in the individual stock than you will in the ETF.

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My feelings on the market are also becoming more bearish - I was kinda neutral, but I see no reason for optimism. Revenues have been declining steadily and without free money from the government, I don't see the growth - Furthermore, with debts ballooning, I can see another crisis in the next 2-3 years coming. I'm staying sidelined for the most part until we hit another "world is over" kinda moment. It prob sounds insane to those that are optimists, but we have become a global economy heavily reliant on central banks and stimulus.

I'm awarding you with this song today

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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

CVX is already showing cap ex is being slashed and production is being cut. The Saudis won.

This was their intention.

It's playing out like I thought and consolidation will be coming all year. Hang in. Own the majors and collect your dividend. I think the dividends will hold on those two you mentioned.

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I'd just be careful on the oil GB...

Russia/OPEC all play this same "maybe there will be cuts" bull#### frequently. None of them are giving up market share - There won't be cuts, be careful.

In fact, it is the opposite... More and more oil is coming online while demand is fizzling.

I watch it by the minute. Turned a few hundred on UCO and sold it. Have some long stuff in there XOM, SLB, KMI and short stuff that I play with when I feel it's time. I'm being as careful as I can while still trying to make some dough.

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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

CVX is already showing cap ex is being slashed and production is being cut. The Saudis won.

This was their intention.

It's playing out like I thought and consolidation will be coming all year. Hang in. Own the majors and collect your dividend. I think the dividends will hold on those two you mentioned.

8%?

Sure, if there intention is going bankrupt.

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That's the big misconception. I think it has been pumped up...indeed. But. Corporate earnings are good. Corporate balance sheets are fantastic. Strip out the energy companies and earnings last year were very good overall.

Fundamentally stocks are trading at around 14-15 multiples. Not cheap. But not at the 30 multiples in 2007 when we hit that 14,000 high then was oversold to the hilt in Feb/March 2009. The world was ending. That was a once in a generation correction my friend.

Stocks long term are priced where they should be. Some expensive, some rock bottom cheap and some just right (it is a true stock pickers market right now not an indexing market like 2013). Markets are recalibrating and normalizing right now. I will say it again. 2 more years then get very cautious. This bull cycle is not over yet. This is a normal and healthy correction during a bull cycle. Also Oil has really been a left hook. China an upper cut. But it is all priced in now.

A real recession like correction is still a ways off. Our economy is doing fine right now. Not amazing, not bad. But getting better.

So keeping interest rates at zero for ~7 years and pumping ~$4 Trillion into the system via QE didn't have much of an impact?

Corporate earnings are not good- we've had multiple quarters in a row of declining earnings and revenues, which are technically in a recession. Sure, it's not as bad if you strip out energy, but that's like saying "take away their best/worst plays and things look different". Well, no kidding, but you can't do that- they all count.

Likewise, corporate balance sheets are far from fantastic. Corporations added $29 Trillion dollars in debt since the financial crisis, their debt-to-earnings ratio is at a 12 year high, and last year they had the most downgrades of corporate debt since the financial crisis in 2009.

P/E ratio's aren't sky-high, but they are a decent amount above historical averages even after this drop. Margin interest is at all-time highs (well, lower than the all time high set in April, but higher than any other time, including the nasdaq bubble). All of this with unprecedented levels of Fed intervention.

Just curious- why are you optimistic for 2 more years and then pessimistic?

Ok clearly your quite bearish. Were you able to to take advantage of 2009-2014? I hope so.

I said no question the zero rates and QE helped, and it was needed badly from where we were in 2008/2009. We are seeing the hang over here. But to think it's all due to QE and zero interest rates is crazy. Companies are doing good. The economy is recovering. Bears scream and pound and once a decade they get it right.

Bull cycles typically last 7-10 years. I am just using my own investing experience since 1987. My own money and wealth has taught me my lessons...not a text book.

I will leave it at that.

Good luck and I hope you do well. If the market corrects some more....so be it. If we go down to 14,000 again so be it. I am highly confident in the companies I own, the dividends they pay and the fact that we will again go north and make new highs.

Like the last 100 years.

Really I don't want to keep going back and forth....it's not worth it. Not because I can't answer.....I just don't need to anymore. For every point I make their will always...always be a bear counter point. It's like those debates you see on CNBC.

This is probably the most hated stock rally in history because so many bears missed the entire run from 6700 to 18,000!!!!

Good luck to everyone though.

I'm not necessarily bearish right now (far from a bear in general), I'm actually looking for reasons to be bullish which is why I like to hear other viewpoints. Unfortunately, it usually comes down to the same things that you're saying- platitudes like "balance sheets are fantastic, corporate earnings are good", etc., but that's just not reality right now. If you have actual data that shows this to be the case, I'd love to see it, but simply saying it doesn't make it so. Debt-to-earnings are at 12 year highs, and earnings and revenues have been falling- how is that "fantastic" or "good"?

Yes, I certainly took advantage of the huge drop, but that's in the past and I'm trying to position myself for the future. I'm not sure if you're actually reading the posts at this point, but clearly I never said the entire move was due to QE and ZIRP- if I thought that was the case I'd be expecting an apocalyptic scenario. However, putting things into perspective, if you think that say ~20% of the move was due to those policies, and we've had a 175% move up during that time, that's a pretty substantial amount.

No worries if you don't want to keep going back and forth- I'm more interested in data than rhetoric myself.

Things also depend on what companies you look at and what you own. I am specifically talking about my portfolio and what I manage for my clients.

It's all high quality mega/large cap names. I don't buy much in the way of small cap or mid cap on an individual basis (here and there but quite rare). I utilize actively manged institutional share class mutual funds for small cap stocks both value and growth (and is the space that is taking a beating and is under extreme debt pressure in some cases), small oil and shale companies are in over their head with debt. But when I am looking at my portfolio here are the names we are talking about and why I don't have long term concerns:

I started this equity portfolio (I am not including my fixed income and hedge positions just the individual stocks) in earnest in 1995 and have of course bought and sold, covered calls, added back, add to etc etc (when I had accumulated just shy of 100K of my own savings since turning 17 and started investing in stocks). Maybe if you see what my money is in you will understand why I block a lot of noise out and look at this massive amount of QE and low interest rate environment with some caution but not immense concern moving forward for the next 20 years.

AAPL

AEP

AGN

AMGN

ASH

BA

BMY

BP

BPL

BUD

CAT

CELG

CLX

CMI

COP

CSCO

CSX

CVX

DEO

DE

DIS

DD

DOW

DVN

EMR

ETN

EXC

FB

GE

GILD

GIS

GOOGL

GSK

HCP

HON

HP

HRS

INTC

JNJ

JPM

KHC

KO

LLY

LMT

MCD

MRK

NEE

NKE

NSC

NSRGY

O

OXY

PG

PPL

QCOM

RDS'A

SAVE

SBUX

SLB

SO

STR

T

TGT

TUP

UN

UNP

UTX

VLO

VGR

VOD

VZ

WFC

WMT

XOM

YUM

Just the equity portion and here is the performance numbers on it.

Worst 12 month period over the last decade was Mar 2008-2009 (-30.36%)

Best 12 month period over the last decade was Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 (+50.92%)

Worst 36 month period over the last decade was Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 (-2.98%)

Best 36 month period over last decade was Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 (28%)

10 year average annual return was 12.79%

5 Year - 14.18 S&P 500 did 7.31

3 Year - 14.82 S&P 500 did 12.57

My standard deviation over 10 years = 13.19

S&P 500 = 15.06

My alpha over 10 years = 5.79!!!

My Beta over 10 years = .85

Those are hard factual numbers of what my money has done. That is why I am not concerned.

The starting point for this exercise was Investing 500K in December 31st of 2005

You know what number looks like now? With the great recession? 1,696,834

Oh and the dividend yield on this portfolio is 3.5%

No rhetoric. Just my statement telling me how much I made. That is what my long time clients see on there statements. I remind them all the time we go through gyrations like this...remember 2002? Remember 2008 and Q1 2009? Remember 2011?, Flash Crash, this correction, that correction?

And what did we do every time we had a major down turn? Oh yeah. Re-balanced, bought more and profited and made new highs.

And what did we hear every time we had a 10% down turn or more?

This time it's different. This time we are in big trouble, this time......

I lived through 2008 with my clients. I was at a major bank at the time and knew how bad it was. And believe me we were on the brink and many many people don't even realize how close we were. But I also knew the Fed was going to back stop the banks and create a bridge loan for AIG. Once I saw the AIG bailout I felt very confident to go in and re balance and hoard stocks. I could go on and on. I truly lived this recession in the industry and kept my clients calm and I did not have one...not one liquidation. My practice grew 200% after the down turn because of how I managed their assets (and they sent plenty of introductions to me after the downturn when there neighbors ask how much are you down? And they say 18% that was winning not losing back then). I manage them like they are my own.

All I know is Walmart will still be here, Coca Cola will still be here, tractors, earth movers, planes and cars will still be needed, gas will still be pumped, electric will still be turned on and off and people will need drugs to stay alive.

Those are my facts. It's not rocket science. It's common sense and experience. My life experience right there for you.

I will tell you how to prepare for the next 10 years. Stay invested, gradually move to a more balanced portfolio as you get older, if your 5 years or less away from retirement under weight stocks down to a max of 30-35% of your total portfolio. Some clients I get them down to 20%. it all depends on their income goals and risk tolerance.

I have been doing this for over 20 years. I can tell you growing the money is the easy part.

But harvesting (for income) takes a ton more skill and discipline. I have 30% of my practice in retirement and living off their savings. Those clients are the ones who worry far more than my savers. It's challenging when you can't use CD's and Money Markets as part of the equation for harvesting income. But eventually the pendulum will swing and rates will move higher. We are not going to be Japan. Absolutely not IMO.

How do you prepare for a rising rate environment? Stay short and high quality with your bonds, buy high quality growing dividend large cap US based stocks and buckle up for some storms and wind. You don't need this pot of money yet and not for a long time. If so...stay out of the market it does not belong in there if you have no long term time horizon.

You will be fine in the long run.

For my retired clients, they have guaranteed variable annuities working for them (no more than 30% of their total net worth ever) and paying them between 15K-30K a year for life (started these 5-9 years ago with great step up riders, great death benefits and withdrawal for life benefits), their social security paying them 17-21K a year (so both of those amounts cover their mailbox bills) and a small portion of their net worth in growth (large cap stocks that pay dividends) and a majority of their net worth in a diversified investment grade (for the most part as we need high yield in there as well) and good quality muni-bond portfolio (individual and mutual funds depending on asset size).

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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

CVX is already showing cap ex is being slashed and production is being cut. The Saudis won.

This was their intention.

It's playing out like I thought and consolidation will be coming all year. Hang in. Own the majors and collect your dividend. I think the dividends will hold on those two you mentioned.

8%?

Sure, if there intention is going bankru

This one little nugget strikes me as just how out of whack our market is...

FB currently has the same value as Google did last year. I just can't believe the premiums people are paying

Been going on for 100 years now. It's called speculation. If your up 100% plus in a stock like FB you sell half, now you own it on house money forever. If you believe in the brand and the company and the future growth...sell half.

If you don't then cash out.

A huge mistake investors make is not taking profits. Anytime I doubled my money in any company I sold half and looked for another company to add to my overall portfolio. It is how I built it. Also selling covered calls has worked great.

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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

CVX is already showing cap ex is being slashed and production is being cut. The Saudis won.

This was their intention.

It's playing out like I thought and consolidation will be coming all year. Hang in. Own the majors and collect your dividend. I think the dividends will hold on those two you mentioned.

8%?

Sure, if there intention is going bankrupt.

No they won't. This is not lasting as long as the TV is making many think.

By year end oil will have rallied to over 40 in my opinion. But keep thinking what you think. I am not saying your wrong...you may be right.

And even if they cut the dividend 25% your still getting 6%....so the stock will tank more. Then wait till they announce a dividend cut if your so confident they will cut and then buy it. That is prudent.

I am already in these names long term and have been for 15-20 years......they are high quality companies. Not ma and pa frackers.

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That was quite the wall of text. It's fine if you think that we'll just bounce back because we have every other time, but I think it's dangerous to dismiss the massive amounts of unprecedented global intervention that has gone on, which makes this period of time very different from others. Case in point, despite a bad earnings season so far, we rallied hard today because Japan went to negative interest rates for the first time ever, and our GDP was weaker than the already low expectations so we'll have low interest rates for longer. Yay I guess?

It gives me pause that bad news is good news and we need so much intervention in order to keep things propped up.

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That was quite the wall of text. It's fine if you think that we'll just bounce back because we have every other time, but I think it's dangerous to dismiss the massive amounts of unprecedented global intervention that has gone on, which makes this period of time very different from others. Case in point, despite a bad earnings season so far, we rallied hard today because Japan went to negative interest rates for the first time ever, and our GDP was weaker than the already low expectations so we'll have low interest rates for longer. Yay I guess?

It gives me pause that bad news is good news and we need so much intervention in order to keep things propped up.

I am with you on the fact's of the immense central bank intervention. I think the roosters will come home to roost...hence my cautioning a couple of more years.

I still see a lot of cheap stocks out there. But more importantly you have a boat load of baby boomers in and going into retirement. Banks are paying nothing....zilch and it's not changing for a few more years.

Where you think the money is going?

Stocks. Not Bonds. Buying investment grade bonds in this interest rate market is like running in front of steam roller to pick up a penny.

They need yield. They need income. Stocks provide that.

But I am not dismissing the unprecedented intervention of central banks. My entire point is I remain bullish for 24 more months max. Then I take a major look at my portfolio. Not that I don't tweak and rebalance between now and then. But a major rebalance in preparation for a major downturn.

What we have had the past 6-7 months has been a healthy and long over due correction.

I am cautiously optimistic for the next couple of years. And never fight the fed.

Edited by Todem
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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

CVX is already showing cap ex is being slashed and production is being cut. The Saudis won.

This was their intention.

It's playing out like I thought and consolidation will be coming all year. Hang in. Own the majors and collect your dividend. I think the dividends will hold on those two you mentioned.

In that case would XOM be the better choice or same issues all around? XOM looks like it's at a 16 P/E and a 4% dividend while CVX is at an 18 P/E but a 5% dividend.

Once you look a step smaller at COP and BP the dividend is at 8% but are losing $.

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