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3 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

Bought 500 UCO at $6.96

 

GBCos, you still have your 2000 at $6.00?

 

I'm just going to say be careful, per usual...

 

A) They didn't curb production

B) Even keeping at current production levels (which are still near record levels) is contingent on Iraq/Iran and others... Rumors are trickling in that they will play ball, but who knows

C) Most importantly, this deal has no impact on NGLs, which is where the rise in production is coming from in 2016 anyways

 

Just a few things to be cognizant of... I expect a short covering rally, but nothing sustained as of yet. You might be a little early to the party, just my .02

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Just now, fantasycurse42 said:

 

I'm just going to say be careful, per usual...

 

A) They didn't curb production

B) Even keeping at current production levels (which are still near record levels) is contingent on Iraq/Iran and others... Rumors are trickling in that they will play ball, but who knows

C) Most importantly, this deal has no impact on NGLs, which is where the rise in production is coming from in 2016 anyways

 

Just a few things to be cognizant of... I expect a short covering rally, but nothing sustained as of yet. You might be a little early to the party, just my .02

I just want some skin in the game, that's all.  Think it's very likely we test mid $20's.

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Disclaimer: I know nothing about the stock market. 

 

Question: I will get a chance to buy stock in my company at a 5% discount. Is that a no brainer, or should that money just go into my 401k?

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2 hours ago, St. Louis Bob said:

200 FAZ at $58.03

Glutton for punishment aren't ya. We could rally to S&P 1950.

 

2 hours ago, Annyong said:

Disclaimer: I know nothing about the stock market. 

 

Question: I will get a chance to buy stock in my company at a 5% discount. Is that a no brainer, or should that money just go into my 401k?

Think Enron. Maybe some $ in company stock but not all of it even if you have a great grasp of your companies finances. Best to spread it out.

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2 hours ago, Annyong said:
9 minutes ago, lod01 said:

Glutton for punishment aren't ya. We could rally to S&P 1950.

 

 

Meh, I think the rally can stall tomorrow... What exactly are we rallying on anyways?

 

We're in a climate of sell the rips, don't buy the dips as far as I'm concerned right now. Problem is, everyone is just conditioned to buy dips, eventually this will fail - The market going down is perfectly healthy and cyclical - The market going straight up for 7 years in a row on printed money and 0% interest is not, some people are starting to realize this.

 

Others I've read on MW write articles about a 20 year bull market :lmao:

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42 minutes ago, FatUncleJerryBuss said:

Depends on your company.  

We make plastic pellets from ethylene gas.  Stock price has dropped from about $90 to $77 in the last year. 

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25 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

 

Meh, I think the rally can stall tomorrow... What exactly are we rallying on anyways?

 

We're in a climate of sell the rips, don't buy the dips as far as I'm concerned right now. Problem is, everyone is just conditioned to buy dips, eventually this will fail - The market going down is perfectly healthy and cyclical - The market going straight up for 7 years in a row on printed money and 0% interest is not, some people are starting to realize this.

 

Others I've read on MW write articles about a 20 year bull market :lmao:

Who the hell knows. Short Covering rally. Dead cat bounce. Oversold bounce. Elliott wave predicting it to goes to 1950 or so. That's the one I'm banking on. I'm certainly not sticking around for long but anytime I can make 3%+ in a couple days I'll take it. Options expire on Friday and I have no idea if the market needs to go up or down by then but it will end at a level that loses the most $ for people.

This did happen (posted Feb. 8 - last week): If the market breaks down early in the coming week, and drops down into the 1823-1851SPX region, it will likely set us up for a (c) wave rally back up toward the 1945-1968SPX region to complete this larger 4th wave pattern over the next few weeks. Such a rally will set up the final decline toward the 1750-1775SPX region.

And then: Ultimately, the 1823-51SPX region is the support that will need to be broken to tell me that we are heading to lower lows sooner rather than later. Until such time, if we drop to that support region, and then begin an impulsive structure off support, it would strongly suggest that we are heading back up toward the 1945-1968SPX region for the more drawn out 4th wave, which will then set up the 5th wave decline to lower lows to complete this correction.

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22 minutes ago, Annyong said:

We make plastic pellets from ethylene gas.  Stock price has dropped from about $90 to $77 in the last year. 

If you post the stock symbol someone here might be able to give you good advice.   I would think in this market the 5% discount is the best route but I am no expert.

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30 minutes ago, lod01 said:

Who the hell knows. Short Covering rally. Dead cat bounce. Oversold bounce. Elliott wave predicting it to goes to 1950 or so. That's the one I'm banking on. I'm certainly not sticking around for long but anytime I can make 3%+ in a couple days I'll take it. Options expire on Friday and I have no idea if the market needs to go up or down by then but it will end at a level that loses the most $ for people.

This did happen (posted Feb. 8 - last week): If the market breaks down early in the coming week, and drops down into the 1823-1851SPX region, it will likely set us up for a (c) wave rally back up toward the 1945-1968SPX region to complete this larger 4th wave pattern over the next few weeks. Such a rally will set up the final decline toward the 1750-1775SPX region.

And then: Ultimately, the 1823-51SPX region is the support that will need to be broken to tell me that we are heading to lower lows sooner rather than later. Until such time, if we drop to that support region, and then begin an impulsive structure off support, it would strongly suggest that we are heading back up toward the 1945-1968SPX region for the more drawn out 4th wave, which will then set up the 5th wave decline to lower lows to complete this correction.

 

I agree with this.  The apparent decoupling with oil is VERY interesting though.

 

As for FAZ, if the market goes down today, I make money.  If it doesn't, I make a lot of money.  Just a short term gamble. :shrug:

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Annyong said:

LYB. It's actually a 10% discount. 

From a techinical analysis perspective...your stock has a lot of support at the $70 level. If you look at the weekly it traded down to that area Jan and Aug of 2015 and now recently.

If you are getting stock at 70 bucks or so ...I think you should probably take it. Stock is in a nice triangle and consolidating. Could break out to the downside (especially if the market goes to ####)...but could also breakout to the upside.

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Do you get the discount at the original buy price or the close price?  Do you get a lower basis or more shares if it goes down in the interim period, is there even an interim period?  Can you CNX the transaction mid stream? These things all matter.

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31 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

 

I agree with this.  The apparent decoupling with oil is VERY interesting though.

 

As for FAZ, if the market goes down today, I make money.  If it doesn't, I make a lot of money.  Just a short term gamble. :shrug:

 

 

Also of note. Max pain for the SPY is 194 which puts the S&P at about 1940 on Friday to cause the most losses for options players. http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/

For QQQ it is 102.

 

 

Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker still isn't sure what is going on in the markets.

Parker has some of the most blunt and honest writing we read from Wall Street.

Coming into 2016, he basically told clients that he was not sure what was going to happen to the stock market, which is probably something a lot of people who have to forecast think but won't say.

Specifically, Parker said nobody can forecast the price-to-forward earnings ratio for the S&P 500 more than a few years out.

And in a note on Tuesday, Parker writes that in 2016, his clients would have been better off doing the opposite of some of his team's recommendations.

COSTANZA!!!!

 

Edited by lod01
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8 minutes ago, metoo said:

You never know. i worked at UPS around the time they went public and I know plenty of guys who took big loans just to buy stock. 

 

This is the how an economic collapse can happen... Gigantic margin debt, recession, insane losses.

 

Huge gamble

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

 

This is the how an economic collapse can happen... Gigantic margin debt, recession, insane losses.

 

Huge gamble

I don't mean this as a dig, but you've turned from the guy who got me into taking the stock market seriously to negative nancy over the past few months :D

You're probably way more plugged in than I so I actually do take your comments seriously but you seem really down on things lately. Are you thinking of a re-entry point as things turn around (or IF things turn around, I should say?).  Would love to hear your take.

 

Also COMING UP NEXT ON CNBC - Rick Springfield joins the trading desk.  Rick ####### Springfield, why?

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Maybe I'm wrong but I thought buying fully in on ESPP was a no brainer?  My company's setup is nice 15% discount on the lower of the closing price of the 1st day or last day in a 6 month period.  Worked out nicely on the IPO but we were limited to 15% of our salary unfortunately.  At a 15% discount is there a time it wouldn't be worth it to max?

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8 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

 

This is the how an economic collapse can happen... Gigantic margin debt, recession, insane losses.

taking

Huge gamble

No gamble at all, they knew it was going public. Managers were taking out huge loans to buy UPS stock weeks before the announcement of the stock going public.

Edited by metoo
I suck
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3 minutes ago, Card Trader said:

Maybe I'm wrong but I thought buying fully in on ESPP was a no brainer?  My company's setup is nice 15% discount on the lower of the closing price of the 1st day or last day in a 6 month period.  Worked out nicely on the IPO but we were limited to 15% of our salary unfortunately.  At a 15% discount is there a time it wouldn't be worth it to max?

Yeah, our ESPP is 15% as well.

 

When I started 9 years ago I was dirt poor and had no money to consider these things.  Our stock then was $7.82, it's now touched $130.00 within the last year.  Biggest regret I have.  I might already be tired.  I got in in much later years with less of a nut, but if you believe in your company and the future of it, I don't think it's a bad thing to consider.  Especially if you can just defer a bit out of your paycheck during the stock buying periods.

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9 minutes ago, metoo said:

No gamble at all, they knew it was going public. Managers were taking out huge loans to buy UPS stock weeks before the announcement of the stock going public.

 

I don't understand... Pre-IPO you have stock options, if the stock was going public, they could only buy their vested shares at a set strike price, no? If the company was going to IPO, I'm sure the strike price was below the IPO price, so it makes sense to buy all of your options (whether you execute and hold or execute and sell is how bullish you are on your company). But I don't understand why take out a loan anyways, as you can execute a trade which sells some of your vested shares to cover costs of other vested shares.

 

If so, this wouldn't be a similar situation to a stock already public with an employee purchase plan at 15% discount (which is the situation outlined above). Borrowing money to buy an employee stock plan is extremely risky, unless you have some superb information, at which point you might be welcoming a visit from the SEC as to why you took a loan with interest to buy company stock.

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19 minutes ago, John Bender said:

I don't mean this as a dig, but you've turned from the guy who got me into taking the stock market seriously to negative nancy over the past few months :D

You're probably way more plugged in than I so I actually do take your comments seriously but you seem really down on things lately. Are you thinking of a re-entry point as things turn around (or IF things turn around, I should say?).  Would love to hear your take.

 

Also COMING UP NEXT ON CNBC - Rick Springfield joins the trading desk.  Rick ####### Springfield, why?

lol...

 

We are circling back to a bad news is good news cycle (completely unhealthy). Look no further than China or Japan for confirmation of this. Both had terrible data Monday, the result? Talks of stimulus and monster rallies. This has been going on for 7 years now - I'm far from a permabear or a permabull, but eventually an economy and stock market has to stand on its own two feet.

We're still sitting on basically 0% interest and the Fed is terrified to lift this (we've been here for almost a decade), that is not bullish by any stretch and should scare anyone who reads into it. We've had one of the most bullish stretches ever over the last 7 years, fueled by these low interest rates and central bank stimulus and the where are we right now? Either the central banks will stop propping up the market or continue to kick the can down the road, either way, reality and market values always will intersect at some point, we aren't close to reality right now, look at some of these valuations and how they've grown. Meanwhile, revenue has now declined across the board for 3 straight quarters, inflation is nowhere to be found, and global growth is at an alarming stand still, with the second biggest economy in the world teetering on disaster.

I see nothing at all that screams the market is cheap or buy happening right now. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if we wind up with another stimulus fueled rally, just makes for a harder landing, which will happen, and I'm not all in until we get there. I'm fairly confident I'll be able to buy most of the major indexes at a nice discount to today's prices in the next 1-3 years, when we enter our next recession, I'll be all-in... Look at history, we've never gone more than 10 years without some sort of recession in the last 100 years, it has been 7 since the last one (some think we never really got out of it to begin with). While I don't think our next recession will be 2007-2009 like, it will be highly unpleasant and the central banks are low on tools to solve with rates already at 0% or negative in some places. Patience is a virtue right now IMO - Sure I could watch a rally from 16-18k and be unhappy about it, but nothing about the global economy says this is fair market value, which is what I'm waiting for.

Show me one piece of bullish news and I'll show you three pieces that are bearish. Just my .02 on the market right now.

I enjoyed this video yesterday, nothing of real substance in here, but I think his opinion is spot on - http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/15/investing/jim-rogers-central-banks-stock-markets/index.html

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-worst-quarter-for-company-earnings-since-2009-2016-02-16?link=MW_home_latest_news

 

Another good article, just dropped 5 minutes ago. And the forecasts that companies are putting out are ridiculously soft to begin with. Amazingly, we're 250% higher than 2009 (the last time we had this soft of growth). IDK, 2+2 just isn't equaling 4 when I'm looking at the market as a whole. & even worse it feels like markets are just shrugging this #### off, makes for an eventual hard landing. I just can't find anything saying buy.

 

 

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Bender asked, I'm just responding... Another bull turned bear - this dude is polished too, listen to the interview, Deutsche Chief US Economist:

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/16/deutsches-lavorgna-all-markets-point-to-growth-problem.html

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2 hours ago, St. Louis Bob said:

 

Didn't cover.  Going to give it until tomorrow at close, latest.

I have pretty much been on the other side of you this entire time, GB. Although I got flat on Friday at the close. Should have held on cuz I thought the market was going higher...but I don't like being long in what I believe is a counter trend rally over a three day weekend. 

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Someone on FBG tipped me off to an application named Robinhood.  Let's you trade commission free.

 

Anywho, I'm thinking of adding some Kroger stock for my next purchase.  In economic downturn, people still need to eat and Kroger offers a decent price.

 

Blue chip with continued growth potential.  Almost a public offering of ALDI, imo.

Edited by Eminence
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13 hours ago, SIDA! said:

I have pretty much been on the other side of you this entire time, GB. Although I got flat on Friday at the close. Should have held on cuz I thought the market was going higher...but I don't like being long in what I believe is a counter trend rally over a three day weekend. 

 

Totally understand GB. :lol:

 

Out at $54.34 for a loss of $738.00 :(

 

Also sold 330 BNY for a profit of $240.01. :confetti:

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1 hour ago, TheWalkmen said:

My unrealized loss is now only  -$4,094.78 or  -87.31%

 

:thumbup::thumbup:

Up another 20% so far today. Found this:

Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (PTM)(nyse mkt:PLG) ("Platinum Group" or the "Company") is responding to a request from the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) on behalf of the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) following recent trading activity. Platinum Group is not aware of any corporate developments to account for this activity. Platinum Group's policy is not to comment on rumors or speculation, and accordingly does not intend to comment further.

 

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53 minutes ago, John Bender said:

Is anyone taking the chance here to take some of their gains this week out of the market and look for another pullback?

CAT is killing it for me up nearly 17%.  The profit is looking really tasty right now.

Been long the SPY since 182 (sold the close on Friday and bought back in on Tues). Not sure how much upside there is here. Debating between taking my profits or see if we can push up to 195. 

ETA: On the 5 minute chart...we are touching the 20 EMA for the first time today. Expecting another bounce...but not sure if we will just retest the day's highs and fail or get another run up.

Edited by SIDA!
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2 hours ago, BeTheMatch said:

Up another 20% so far today. Found this:

Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (PTM)(nyse mkt:PLG) ("Platinum Group" or the "Company") is responding to a request from the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) on behalf of the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) following recent trading activity. Platinum Group is not aware of any corporate developments to account for this activity. Platinum Group's policy is not to comment on rumors or speculation, and accordingly does not intend to comment further.

 

Keeps climbing. And no one knows why. If this isn't insider trading, I don't know what is.

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@John Bender

FWIW...since I am trading the SPY...I just put in a stop order at 192.50 on the re-test of the daily high here. We will see what happens. But the market has gone up pretty good here the last few days and I wouldn't be surprised if we get a pullback. If this breakout above the day's high holds  and continues...I will move my stop up to somewhere in the 193 range. 

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1 hour ago, SIDA! said:

@John Bender

FWIW...since I am trading the SPY...I just put in a stop order at 192.50 on the re-test of the daily high here. We will see what happens. But the market has gone up pretty good here the last few days and I wouldn't be surprised if we get a pullback. If this breakout above the day's high holds  and continues...I will move my stop up to somewhere in the 193 range. 

I would expect the close on Friday for SPY to be between 191 and 193 so if it closes up higher tomorrow, I will bail on my vssgx and go back to cash and hope this was a short covering rally/dead cat bounce in the markets. If it closes lower, I will hold and sell on Friday as I expect it to climb back up to end the day in the 191-193 range. I can't imaging anything keeping me in the market at 4:00 on Friday.

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