I don't mean this as a dig, but you've turned from the guy who got me into taking the stock market seriously to negative nancy over the past few months
You're probably way more plugged in than I so I actually do take your comments seriously but you seem really down on things lately. Are you thinking of a re-entry point as things turn around (or IF things turn around, I should say?). Would love to hear your take.
Also COMING UP NEXT ON CNBC - Rick Springfield joins the trading desk. Rick ####### Springfield, why?
lol...
We are circling back to a bad news is good news cycle (completely unhealthy). Look no further than China or Japan for confirmation of this. Both had terrible data Monday, the result? Talks of stimulus and monster rallies. This has been going on for 7 years now - I'm far from a permabear or a permabull, but eventually an economy and stock market has to stand on its own two feet.
We're still sitting on basically 0% interest and the Fed is terrified to lift this (we've been here for almost a decade), that is not bullish by any stretch and should scare anyone who reads into it. We've had one of the most bullish stretches ever over the last 7 years, fueled by these low interest rates and central bank stimulus and the where are we right now? Either the central banks will stop propping up the market or continue to kick the can down the road, either way, reality and market values always will intersect at some point, we aren't close to reality right now, look at some of these valuations and how they've grown. Meanwhile, revenue has now declined across the board for 3 straight quarters, inflation is nowhere to be found, and global growth is at an alarming stand still, with the second biggest economy in the world teetering on disaster.
I see nothing at all that screams the market is cheap or buy happening right now. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if we wind up with another stimulus fueled rally, just makes for a harder landing, which will happen, and I'm not all in until we get there. I'm fairly confident I'll be able to buy most of the major indexes at a nice discount to today's prices in the next 1-3 years, when we enter our next recession, I'll be all-in... Look at history, we've never gone more than 10 years without some sort of recession in the last 100 years, it has been 7 since the last one (some think we never really got out of it to begin with). While I don't think our next recession will be 2007-2009 like, it will be highly unpleasant and the central banks are low on tools to solve with rates already at 0% or negative in some places. Patience is a virtue right now IMO - Sure I could watch a rally from 16-18k and be unhappy about it, but nothing about the global economy says this is fair market value, which is what I'm waiting for.
Show me one piece of bullish news and I'll show you three pieces that are bearish. Just my .02 on the market right now.
I enjoyed this video yesterday, nothing of real substance in here, but I think his opinion is spot on -
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/15/investing/jim-rogers-central-banks-stock-markets/index.html