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Trying to time bottoms is very hard. If you believe in the company long term I feel this price is a very strong entry point long term. Set it and forget for a while. When it doubles....take your

I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

sponks

14 minutes ago, Capella said:

Why bitcoin at 6500 :shock: I remember reading about people selling home equity to get it at 19k. 

I remember a thread in here about getting rich around that time, run by a guy who keeps his gambling hush hush from his wife. As PT Barnum said, there’s a sucker born every minute. The amount of money the early adopters made is staggering. Hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap back then. 50,000 btc was worth $4,000 mid 2010 and it made you a billionaire at the end of 2017. The amount of money lost by idiots who invested late 2017 is probably over $100 billion.

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8 minutes ago, Capella said:

Why bitcoin at 6500 :shock: I remember reading about people selling home equity to get it at 19k. 

If Amazon started their own coin, would you buy it? Possibly, they have a gigantic marketplace that you could transact using this, why would you own bitcoin when you could own dollars? Where is the benefit? The direction is clearly down, while there will be pops and spikes along the way, the real value is much closer to $0 than $6,500. 

My only real anger with Bitcoin is they didn't offer options, only futures - I prob would've made $1mm playing bitcoin options, futures too dangerous with undefined risk.

Bottom line; blockchain good, bitcoin worthless - been my main argument for years now. 

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1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said:

If Amazon started their own coin, would you buy it? Possibly, they have a gigantic marketplace that you could transact using this, why would you own bitcoin when you could own dollars? Where is the benefit? The direction is clearly down, while there will be pops and spikes along the way, the real value is much closer to $0 than $6,500. 

My only real anger with Bitcoin is they didn't offer options, only futures - I prob would've made $1mm playing bitcoin options, futures too dangerous with undefined risk.

Bottom line; blockchain good, bitcoin worthless - been my main argument for years now. 

I’ve said the same thing. If the buyer and seller just use bitcoin as the middleman and both use USD in and out, the price of bitcoin is meaningless. I don’t see Visacoin, Amexcoin or Debitcardcoin as an investment either. Investing in Visa, i.e. the exchange/network is a different story. 

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19 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I bought Tesla when it was around $315 just days ago, think it needs some pullback... Might take a nice profit, tbd... 

If any stock can just defy everything it is Tesla, but I'd rather lock it in, $290-$342 in 3 sessions... Prob time for some profit taking. They laid off about 9% of their labor force today - while the market sold the news, I think it is actually bullish, idk - anyone have any opinions here?

Out at $342, 8.5% in 3 days - I'm not a pig, foolish not to take that kind of return... If it pulls back, which it should, I'll look to enter again.

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1 minute ago, stbugs said:

I’ve said the same thing. If the buyer and seller just use bitcoin as the middleman and both use USD in and out, the price of bitcoin is meaningless. I don’t see Visacoin, Amexcoin or Debitcardcoin as an investment either. Investing in Visa, i.e. the exchange/network is a different story. 

Bingo, exactly what I was alluding to - if your end game is dollars in dollars out, what is the point? 

At this point, the majority of hodlers are speculators - they'll be slaughtered in time. 

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2 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I bought Tesla when it was around $315 just days ago, think it needs some pullback... Might take a nice profit, tbd... 

If any stock can just defy everything it is Tesla, but I'd rather lock it in, $290-$342 in 3 sessions... Prob time for some profit taking. They laid off about 9% of their labor force today - while the market sold the news, I think it is actually bullish, idk - anyone have any opinions here?

I think it is lipstick on a pig.  Honestly the restructuring plan is too little too late.  The majority, based on what I read, of the layoff are post acquisition and sales force from non core business (home depot).  Long story short, it is not a true restructuring plan.  Now if these idiots would ever look at the company they would figure out just how over valued it is.  What do I know though.

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10 minutes ago, sbonomo said:

I think it is lipstick on a pig.  Honestly the restructuring plan is too little too late.  The majority, based on what I read, of the layoff are post acquisition and sales force from non core business (home depot).  Long story short, it is not a true restructuring plan.  Now if these idiots would ever look at the company they would figure out just how over valued it is.  What do I know though.

Most overvalued company ever, no arguments from me on this one.

I know one thing about Tesla though, when the TSLA bulls are running, you want to be on the same side of the path as them. I see $310 as the line in the sand - over $310, I see the bulls in control. My charting sucks though, @siffoin is obviously our resident expert on this one. 

If we get some pullback towards the low $320’s, I’m prob taking another long here with a stop around $295ish. After the monster rally recently, you’d think pullback is in the cards, but this stock defies all logic, so who knows.

The short trade is so crowded too, but in the last 5 sessions, we’ve seen over 80mm shares exchange hands, so I’d think those looking to cover, have. Again, who the #### knows when it comes to Tesla though. When they get their 5k a week, we could see another leg up, but I’m trying to figure out if that’s what’s being priced in during this move... it’s just so hard to understand this one, but with the right discipline, could be a moneymaker.

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Let's pretend Trump and NK come to some sort of treaty and NK can start trading in some relatively soon period of time. How might the $6-10 trillions of minerals NK is sitting on affect things?

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2 hours ago, Hilts said:

Let's pretend Trump and NK come to some sort of treaty and NK can start trading in some relatively soon period of time. How might the $6-10 trillions of minerals NK is sitting on affect things?

I predict it will cause a monster run in amzn that lasts for several weeks ... possibly months.

 

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Quickly: The $TSLA chart is mostly bullish.  But it's not what I'd personally consider ideal.  Support is in the $305-$310 area which is where I'd want to buy it (if the chart were confirmed Bull).  The issue is - IF price were to drop into those support levels, I think the overall trend would be even less ideal than it is now - perhaps teetering on the edge of flipping Bearish.  What to do?

$TSLA probably going higher with the market in general.  But I'd consider it more of a coin flip type of trade.  In those types of situations I find the outcome more often than not: Heads I lose, Tails I lose.  Hopefully your results are better.

There seems to be many other positions that might offer equal results with less risk.

In general I think the overall market remains bullish - remember the LT chart from January-  and I expect to see us push toward (and perhaps exceed (perhaps significantly exceed)) the January highs.  With that said - I find the LT internals to be much weaker now than back in January/Feb/March/April.  How that shakes out I'm not sure.  I'm a cautious bull, and will likely remain so thru the end of this month and re-evaluate.

 

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56 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Quickly: The $TSLA chart is mostly bullish.  But it's not what I'd personally consider ideal.  Support is in the $305-$310 area which is where I'd want to buy it (if the chart were confirmed Bull).  The issue is - IF price were to drop into those support levels, I think the overall trend would be even less ideal than it is now - perhaps teetering on the edge of flipping Bearish.  What to do?

$TSLA probably going higher with the market in general.  But I'd consider it more of a coin flip type of trade.  In those types of situations I find the outcome more often than not: Heads I lose, Tails I lose.  Hopefully your results are better.

There seems to be many other positions that might offer equal results with less risk.

In general I think the overall market remains bullish - remember the LT chart from January-  and I expect to see us push toward (and perhaps exceed (perhaps significantly exceed)) the January highs.  With that said - I find the LT internals to be much weaker now than back in January/Feb/March/April.  How that shakes out I'm not sure.  I'm a cautious bull, and will likely remain so thru the end of this month and re-evaluate.

 

Nice write up, Siff!

I'm pretty glued to the Fed today - I'm prob a contrarian, but I think there going to be more hawkish than expected, I don't think the market will like that. 

With that being said, I agree with the cautious bullish stance and am still buying on weakness. 

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Bought Disney for my boys a month or so ago at $98.  These kids have good fortune.  FWIW I pay them $10 a week for chores and put another $10 in escrow until enough builds up to deposit in their brokerage account.  I've been wanting to buy DIS myself but too busy gambling on TVIX.  It keeps them interested in the markets and makes them want to earn more.  Plus they are both up almost 60% in 1.5 years.  #####. 

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6 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

16k   :puke:

Damn. I just did a quick $30 and $400 and rounded up. I was going to like the post but that seems in poor taste.

I’ve been thinking about net worth with AMZN, other investments, house, wife and my job and some inheritance (nice but only around 25% of gain) and I think ours has gone up 60ish % in the past year and a half not bad for being in our 40s. It’s been a hell of a recent run in all aspects we’ll aside from my wife’s dad passing. Just wasn’t really paying attention being so busy but it really has been a big run. Starting to get pretty antsy. 

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13 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

Bought Disney for my boys a month or so ago at $98.  These kids have good fortune.  FWIW I pay them $10 a week for chores and put another $10 in escrow until enough builds up to deposit in their brokerage account.  I've been wanting to buy DIS myself but too busy gambling on TVIX.  It keeps them interested in the markets and makes them want to earn more.  Plus they are both up almost 60% in 1.5 years.  #####. 

By the way, I like that idea. All three boys have enough in savings to make some investments. I wasn’t ever thinking about a brokerage account for their savings account but may do that. My oldest works and has one more year in high school so sort of his college money, but the other two have a few+ years, could be fun for them.

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2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

By the way, I like that idea. All three boys have enough in savings to make some investments. I wasn’t ever thinking about a brokerage account for their savings account but may do that. My oldest works and has one more year in high school so sort of his college money, but the other two have a few+ years, could be fun for them.

 I started with VOO which is an ultra low cost, and theoretically safe,  S&P 500 fund.  They both love Apple products so started putting additional money there and so on.  GLGB. :thumbup:

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On 6/12/2018 at 1:59 PM, skycriesmary said:

Seriously, I have THE anti-midas touch. I'm thinking about putting most of my Roth money into REIT's, but then I'd crash the real estate market.

Next time, please have the courtesy to notify us when you are shorting NFLX.

 

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7 minutes ago, St. Louis Bob said:

 I started with VOO which is an ultra low cost, and theoretically safe,  S&P 500 fund.  They both love Apple products so started putting additional money there and so on.  GLGB. :thumbup:

I wish I started a while ago. Not a ton of money in their savings but missed a nice run up. 

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3 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Nice write up, Siff!

I'm pretty glued to the Fed today - I'm prob a contrarian, but I think there going to be more hawkish than expected, I don't think the market will like that. 

With that being said, I agree with the cautious bullish stance and am still buying on weakness. 

Right on the former, wrong on the latter. 

Yield curve shrinks to under 40; 2.978% 10 year, 2 year 2.579% - worth keeping an eye on... bond markets are certainly getting more nervous than the equity markets.

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27 minutes ago, Bossman said:

Next time, please have the courtesy to notify us when you are shorting NFLX.

 

Between SDS, SDOW, OPK, and CBLLF, it's been a hellava year. I'm just trying to keep up with SLB.:X:banned::banned::X

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Re commodities: maybe I'm a little early, and it's weird my opinion shifts when the DOE report today was mostly bullish, but I don't see huge upside in them anymore. Maybe some fund managers chase them up a little higher with some FOMO, but I'm shifting from bullish to slightly bearish oil. A lot is riding on OPEC, so it is fluid, but the market is adequately supplied. If they bring bbls back to market next week, I think we move from balanced to surplus. We also have more than enough gas, prices really shouldn't be this high. Distillate is the only thing that should be up here when you look at storage YoY trends.

APC is my favorite E&P in the space still, but US production is exploding! We produced 10.9MM BPD this week, it was 10.8MM BPD just a week ago. While that kind of growth is unsustainable, the trend is clearly more barrels. 

Really can't make any definitive decisions until OPEC meets next week. The other wild cards are obviously how the world reacts to Iran sanctions and Venezuela - if a lot of Iran barrels start coming off market, then you need to think balanced or deficit, depending on the size. If Venezuela production keeps imploding too, same theory.

Commodities are a tough ####### gig...

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34 minutes ago, skycriesmary said:

Between SDS, SDOW, OPK, and CBLLF, it's been a hellava year. I'm just trying to keep up with SLB.:X:banned::banned::X

I'd have no trouble keeping up with SLB ... if it wasn't for this darn amzn. 

The good news ... locked in profit on NFLX.

The bad news ... a few weeks back when it was $337.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, skycriesmary said:

Between SDS, SDOW, OPK, and CBLLF, it's been a hellava year. I'm just trying to keep up with SLB.:X:banned::banned::X

 

2 minutes ago, Bossman said:

I'd have no trouble keeping up with SLB ... if it wasn't for this darn amzn. 

The good news ... locked in profit on NFLX.

The bad news ... a few weeks back when it was $337.

 

 

:lol: I'm still WAY up.  ;)

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1 hour ago, Steed said:

Musk taunting the shorts then putting in big orders pre and post market (when it’s at its most illiquid) is wild stuff.

How do you know it wasn’t during market hours?

Regardless, the guy owns like 37mm shares, buying 72k really isn’t a big deal, nor should it influence the price tomorrow (but it prob will).

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So today kind of blew me away.  It was about a 95% chance that the Fed was going to raise rates, and REITs still took it in the shorts.  No idea why it wasn't baked in.  Next Fed meeting I'll be very tempted to short if it's this obvious. 

That being said there are some incredible companies on sale right now in that space.

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7 hours ago, Sand said:

So today kind of blew me away.  It was about a 95% chance that the Fed was going to raise rates, and REITs still took it in the shorts.  No idea why it wasn't baked in.  Next Fed meeting I'll be very tempted to short if it's this obvious. 

That being said there are some incredible companies on sale right now in that space.

I’m practically oblivious to this sector. What do you recommend?

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Thinking about shooting for a lotto ticket here. Boeing - apparently everyone has forgotten about our trade skirmish with China... Supposedly, we're gonna announce our tariff list on $50B worth of goods tomorrow. If this does happen, I'd expect Boeing to get crushed. $360 puts for tomorrow are about $1.40 right now, could easily see Boeing at $350 tomorrow if that did happen, or a profit of about 600%. Debating lighting $600 on fire chasing a $4k profit. 

ETA: The $357.50's might be the better ticket here.

ETA 2: Taking the shot if BA can get to $365.

ETA 3: I got #### to do, I bought 9 at 82 cents... Prob $720 that I just donated, but whatever, one can dream.

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6 hours ago, pecorino said:

I’m practically oblivious to this sector. What do you recommend?

Single stock issues - my two largest holdings are O (triple net lease company) and VTR (senior care).  Both are the big dogs in those areas.  VTR is the biggest holding as I believe the macro pressures there (elderly population growing strongly) provides a tailwind.

I do have some other more speculative plays - KIM, SKT, CHCT.

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15 minutes ago, DevilDog919 said:

IQ. Up over 120% in a few months. They Call it the Netflix of China, and it’s sure looking like it will be a big winner in my portfolio.

If my IQ went up 120%, I wouldn't hang in this ####hole anymore.

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Today should be an interesting day on Wall Street with the big tariffs announced and everyone and their brother trying to figure out the real effect, on which companies and how to price that into the stock.  I'll pretty much just sit the next week or so out and let others figure it out - most of the stocks I'm invested in shouldn't be too influenced by this - but I do believe there will be opportunities to make a few bucks in trades.

I did have a question, not sure if anyone would know or not.  I enjoy watching Mad Money with Jim Cramer.  Guy is a blow hard, but at least he is not afraid to give his opinions on stocks and his thoughts on the market.  Some I agree on, some I don't, but for a quick recap of the market and a few quick hitters on some stocks, he keeps me entertained.  But, as I was watching last night, the CEO of THOR came on.  Now I'm not a daily watcher of his show, i mean I may watch it 2-3x per week when I have nothing going on, but I swear this is at least the 3rd time in the last year I've seen this guy.  Nothing about THOR interests me, but I am wondering - does this company pay Cramer to have their stocks touted, their CEO get screen time?  I imagine if you have an eloquent CEO who can answer a few pre-screened questions in an optimistic tone, this could do nothing but help the stock a little bit, no?  Should this be reported from the show?  As there are thousands of publicly traded companies, how can one company have their CEO on 2-3x per calendar year without using some kind of influence?  Maybe that's more than one question, but I figured I'd throw that out there to see if anyone had some insight.

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21 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Thinking about shooting for a lotto ticket here. Boeing - apparently everyone has forgotten about our trade skirmish with China... Supposedly, we're gonna announce our tariff list on $50B worth of goods tomorrow. If this does happen, I'd expect Boeing to get crushed. $360 puts for tomorrow are about $1.40 right now, could easily see Boeing at $350 tomorrow if that did happen, or a profit of about 600%. Debating lighting $600 on fire chasing a $4k profit. 

ETA: The $357.50's might be the better ticket here.

ETA 2: Taking the shot if BA can get to $365.

ETA 3: I got #### to do, I bought 9 at 82 cents... Prob $720 that I just donated, but whatever, one can dream.

Like how this one is shaping up.

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7 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Like how this one is shaping up.

If we stay here at open, hopefully can get $1.50, sell 5, free roll 4.

ETA:

$2.04 :confetti:

free roll on 5

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10 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

If we stay here at open, hopefully can get $1.50, sell 5, free roll 4.

ETA:

$2.04 :confetti:

free roll on 5

$4.25 on 3, $1200 locked, letting the last 2 ride.

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1 hour ago, guru_007 said:

Today should be an interesting day on Wall Street with the big tariffs announced and everyone and their brother trying to figure out the real effect, on which companies and how to price that into the stock.  I'll pretty much just sit the next week or so out and let others figure it out - most of the stocks I'm invested in shouldn't be too influenced by this - but I do believe there will be opportunities to make a few bucks in trades.

I did have a question, not sure if anyone would know or not.  I enjoy watching Mad Money with Jim Cramer.  Guy is a blow hard, but at least he is not afraid to give his opinions on stocks and his thoughts on the market.  Some I agree on, some I don't, but for a quick recap of the market and a few quick hitters on some stocks, he keeps me entertained.  But, as I was watching last night, the CEO of THOR came on.  Now I'm not a daily watcher of his show, i mean I may watch it 2-3x per week when I have nothing going on, but I swear this is at least the 3rd time in the last year I've seen this guy.  Nothing about THOR interests me, but I am wondering - does this company pay Cramer to have their stocks touted, their CEO get screen time?  I imagine if you have an eloquent CEO who can answer a few pre-screened questions in an optimistic tone, this could do nothing but help the stock a little bit, no?  Should this be reported from the show?  As there are thousands of publicly traded companies, how can one company have their CEO on 2-3x per calendar year without using some kind of influence?  Maybe that's more than one question, but I figured I'd throw that out there to see if anyone had some insight.

Understand that shows like Mad Money and networks like CNBC primary mission isn't to provide financial news/information to make you an informed investor but rather to act as advertisers for financial instruments in an effort to sell you financial products mostly for the benefit of companies selling those instruments and you making money as a result is not in the top 10 of their corporate goals.

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I understand CNBC is in the entertainment industry.  I just think it would be disingenuous on their part to bring on CEO's of various companies without a disclaimer stating that said company pays CNBC or Mad Money a fee.  Maybe they don't, I have no idea.  Maybe these CEO's are the only one's that respond to CNBC's requests to be interviewed.  I was curious.

 

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