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Oh dear lord. My whole post was asking about that summit where it felt like we got warm fuzzies. I’ll tone down my rhetoric for you, but seems a topic when we all know he appears to meddle in things for personal reasons which we don’t normally see in any other president. He appears IMHO to be trying to monkey with the markets and in particular certain companies. Luckily, Amazon appears to be rolling right now even if Trump has a personal vendetta against Bezos. Also, to be clear I think it’s very unpresidential to be attempting to mess with the markets for seemingly personal reasons. Nothing to do with politics, just goes to my disdain of graft and lobbying and politics for personal/friends gain. 

 
Jul 13 GM $40 puts are good lotto tickets at 35 cents, IMO:

What I’m thinking is simple - China/US tariffs go into effect on Jul 6th, if that does happen, you better believe this US car king will get clobbered, if not, you’re punting $35 dollars per 100 shares. If we do see some escalation, $36-$37 is very possible IMO - at $37, you’re around 900% gain. I’m prob taking a shot on 10. 

US auto I think will be coming under pressure sooner or later, so I get the sense this could give investors a reason to sell, as they might be looking for one anyways.

 
Also, if you want to pair that with BA, some cheap high upside 7/6 calls should tensions ease, BA is a rocket ship... 

gonna play with the calculator and figure this out.

 
mquinnjr said:
Wow, this is an impressive level of detail. Thanks for posting, siffoin. I have a general question for you, no urgency to respond at all, just me wondering.

I fully understand how options work, but never felt the need to executed trades on them, as it doesn't fit my investment objectives. I don't pick many stocks, but the few that I own for growth outside of retirement, etc. planning are positions where I want to be long because I'm confident in my DD of the company's core business and where I feel they're headed, supported by a deep dive into the financials and basic ratio analysis to get a feel for value. When you talk about 60-minute price trends and longer term price trends with historical support, do you already know all the underlying details of the company/DD is done and are purely focusing on price trends at that point for very short term trading? TSLA for example, I'm assuming you know them inside and out before going to price movements to make a decision on put/call options. 

I'm sure it's because I don't actively trade, but I tend to not care (potentially at my peril and all) about price trends if I'm comfy with all other analysis that I've done since I'm buy and hold. Just genuinely curious, thanks. 
Click to expand...
I will address this.  Give me a little time...hopefully today.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Also, if you want to pair that with BA, some cheap high upside 7/6 calls should tensions ease, BA is a rocket ship... 

gonna play with the calculator and figure this out.
Click to expand...
What do you think about extending the date to August 17 since that’s on the other side of earnings? Many multiples of the premium, I know, but those extra five weeks (plus the earnings report) might justify the higher price. I like the way you’re thinking here with BA.

 
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Sand said:
Hey,  There's a whole board dedicated to this.  Talking about political decisions on the markets is fine, but if we could keep it otherwise neutral that keeps this thread clean and concentrated on what's important - green.

Thanks.   :thumbup:
Click to expand...
disagree. His policies have huge impacts and are relevant. I understand you not wanting this thread to disintegrate into partisan politics, but there is no more  impact on the market than his daily words and actions.

 
cosjobs said:
disagree. His policies have huge impacts and are relevant. I understand you not wanting this thread to disintegrate into partisan politics, but there is no more  impact on the market than his daily words and actions.
Click to expand...
This is the key.  The rest follows from that.   :thumbup:

 
Funny how the potus takes the blame whenever the market turns slightly red for a couple days.

He gets no credit for the economy overall? As if markets would just continue green every day if it weren't for Don.

Not sure bout you guys, but my portfolio has never been healthier.  I don't expect lack of China imports / exports to effect that much.

OK, enough of that. Lets make this thread GREAT again.

 
So, I'm thinking tonight about opportunity based on latest events here - specifically SCOTUS ruling on interstate/internet taxation.  So with this who wins?  My thoughts:

1.  Amazon - they already wanted this as they want delivery times to be low and a presence in each state is a good thing for them overall. Not that this needs more tailwinds!

2.  Main street - maybe hard to buy into on a stock basis

3.  Retail B&M - so this is an interesting area.  Retail has gotten trampled lately.  I've bought into a few pummeled REITs lately, SKT and KIM, and am giving thought to buying more.  Yields are already good and I can't help but think this will push more people into physical stores. 

Thoughts?  Any other good targets?  

 
I look at the tax ruling from a consumers stand point.

As an Amazon customer, I could give a rats balloon knot about paying state sales tax.

If I go to a b&m, I'm paying state sales tax there as well. ... and costing me my time & fuel to get to the store and back.

I use amazon for the variety, research, and convenience of having the stuff at my door in 2 days. 

This ruling changes almost nothing imo and all that it did was create a buying opportunity for amzn stock. Wish it fell even lower tho.

 
Walking Boot said:
Some business tax firms going to have to have a field day, right? Am I correct that this means every online retailer will have to comply with every end-user's local tax code? There's gotta be a few hundred different sales tax setups they'll all need help to navigate. I mean, my city has at least 4 different sales tax rate bases. Then the local rules about what gets taxed when (for example, in one area, Subway has to charge a different amount of tax based on whether your sandwich is "toasted" or not, because they tax prepared/warm food different than grocery/cold food). So not only are your online retailers going to be navigating their own tax systems, but they'll need help with figuring out if, say, they're selling a case of candy bars from Hershey PA to a customer in Queens NY means they'll be subject to the NYC sugar tax or not on top of the rest of the sales taxes. 

No online retailer could be expected to know what different tax to charge for every different item to every different zip code. Compliance is going to be a monster.
Click to expand...
Not really.  Most OOS systems now account for this by zipcode which is all that is required, unless something changed yesterday that requires more granularity than zip.

 
Walking Boot said:
I don't know. I didn't think there was a framework in place that automatically calculated not only the different state sales taxes, but, could tell product by product what added rate to apply. Back to candy bars, I read that one state taxes them differently based on whether or not they contain flour, for example. Not sure how many online retailers who aren't based in that state already knew that and have it correctly built in to their system. Plus then county and city tax rules can be so arcane, and change so regularly. It's not as simple as "Shipping to Connecticut, add 6.35%".

This article on compliance says that a small business would now need to fill out 48 state corporate or gross receipts tax returns, even if they have no liability in a state. Seems good for accountants. 
Click to expand...
This is way overblown.  QuickBooks handles all this stuff seamlessly.  It may be a pain for someone doing ebay type transactions, not sure on that.  But for you average internet warehouser this is nbd.  

With Trump in whitehouse and hating Amazon so much I'm a little surprised he let this thru.  It helps Amazon quite a bit since they were doing this already.

Keep in mind, that as a consumer you were supposed to levy the tax against yourself if not already collected.  Pretty sure the compliance on this will be all over the place.  

 
Walking Boot said:
I get that Quick Books can figure out sales tax. But I am asking because I don't know, at what point does it ask you what categories your products fall in? I mean, if you say you sell candy bars, does it ask if any contain flour so it can figure out the different tax? If you sell men's clothing and ship a belt to Texas, does the software ask if the buckle is detachable/replaceable, which is taxed at a different rate? Or is the user supposed to know and separate that all out when adding products to the system? 
Click to expand...
Your POS should have appropriate coding. Most of the time tbh user will end up paying higher tax just due to vendor laziness. Especially on non luxury items.  

End user can approach their local tax office for a refund if they feel slighted. 

 
mquinnjr said:
Wow, this is an impressive level of detail. Thanks for posting, siffoin. I have a general question for you, no urgency to respond at all, just me wondering.

I fully understand how options work, but never felt the need to executed trades on them, as it doesn't fit my investment objectives. I don't pick many stocks, but the few that I own for growth outside of retirement, etc. planning are positions where I want to be long because I'm confident in my DD of the company's core business and where I feel they're headed, supported by a deep dive into the financials and basic ratio analysis to get a feel for value. When you talk about 60-minute price trends and longer term price trends with historical support, do you already know all the underlying details of the company/DD is done and are purely focusing on price trends at that point for very short term trading? TSLA for example, I'm assuming you know them inside and out before going to price movements to make a decision on put/call options. 

I'm sure it's because I don't actively trade, but I tend to not care (potentially at my peril and all) about price trends if I'm comfy with all other analysis that I've done since I'm buy and hold. Just genuinely curious, thanks. 
Click to expand...
Ok.  Let me try and tackle this. Let me preface this by saying - I often struggle with my own trades...and there are times (like this week) when I have a plan and follow the plan but execution fails and often at the very worst spot (ie this week there were a number of trades I made where I was right on time and direction but for one reason or another got stopped for a loss only to watch the position become profitable had I held literally for 1-2 minutes longer).  Like Mike Tyson says: "everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth".

#1:  When someone here asks me to take a look at $XYZ company on a chart - I do ZERO DD on that stock.  (Honestly - I personally don't hold a lot of stock positions.  Most everything is in ETFs or Mutual Funds.)  But ideally what we want to find are positions where DD (fundamentals) and technicals all aligned.  Ideally fundamentals tell you WHAT to buy (or sell) and technicals tell you WHEN to buy (or sell) it.

#2: TIME FRAME: When you are looking at a position Time Frame is critical.  How long do you plan to hold this position?  For example:  If I'm day trading $NQ (emini future of the Nasdaq) well I'm going to be trading off a very short term chart - like a 1, 3 or 5 minute chart (where one bar of the chart represents all the price movement in 1, 3 or 5 minutes) - because I'm looking to trade that for a small gains a couple of times per day.  If I'm looking at an ETF for my kids college fund, I'm looking at holding that for at least a few months and ideally for a few years.  In that case we're looking at daily chart (where one bar represents all the price movement in a single trading day).  So how long we plan to hold the position represents the base TIme Frame Set Point.  Example: Day Trading= 1 minute chart; Swing Trading= 60 minute chart; Investing= daily chart; VLT Market View= Weekly or Monthly Chart. Execution involves the time frame set point AND the next closest set point.  So if I'm day trading the NQ on a 1 minute chart, ideally I want my trades to be in the same direction as the hourly trend.  What I have found is that my odds of a successful trade are greater when I'm trading in the direction of the next highest trend - so if the 60 minute chart is bullish I want to take long day trades off the 1 minute chart.

#3: Taking a position.  Let's say I've done my DD on $XZY and believe it to be fundamentally strong but just now entering a new Daily Bull Trend.  Where and when do I take the position?  Example: $XYZ trading at $50.  $XYZ has support at $48 and $42.  In a perfect world - I wait for the 60 minute chart to turn bearish and then execute the long position as soon as the 60 minute trend flips back to bullish.  Giddy if it flips near that first level of support ($48).  Doing this means I have set odds in favor of having a positive position from the get-go and makes my stress level less.

#4: Managing the position:  I'm not a believer in hold forever.  Don't fall in love with a stock.  Squeeze as much juice as you can, but there will be a time to sell.  You should have that target in mind when you take the position.  You should also be prepared to take a loss on the position and have that target in mind before you ever buy it.  I'm very strict with my day trades and have a spreadsheet with formula to determine how much I will make or lose on the position.  It's not a secret.  I will risk $1 to make $2.  But because every day is different...and intraday is different - the profit/loss varies on each trade.  Typically someone might say "place a stop at a 10% loss."  That's great in theory.  However, if we look at our $XYZ position trading at $50 with bottom support at $42...I'm going to want to have a little more flexibility in that trade than a hard 10% loss ($45) because of that $42 support level.  And I'm going to want to have some flexibility around $42 because price will often tag a support level and exceed it slightly.  It sucks if you have a hard stop at $42 and find that $XYZ has a ST pullback to $41.75...only to see it 6 months later trading at $70 and you being the sucker who got stopped out $.25 from the bottom of a great stock in a bull trend.  (I KNOW THE FEELING - I'VE BEEN THERE - JUST YESTERDAY.  Don't be like me.)  What I'm saying is you need to think of support levels like a zone and what we set is a SOFT stop at $42 and watch on pins and needles and pray to the ghost of Jessie Livermore that she reverses right there. In our example: $XYZ at $50 with bottom support at $42 - we say $40-$42 is where we believe the position is wrong - that's a 20% loss...so therefore we need to believe that $XYZ will return 40% over the length we plan to hold the position. Risk $1 to make $2.  So on the $XYZ IF we're going to be willing to risk $10, but we better be sure our DD suggest a return of $20+.  Now on a day trade I have strict rules for targets.  But on an investment position- I'm going to allow the trend to take me out of the trade.  In reality $XYZ might go to $75 - top - and then enter into a bear trend...and that bear trend might confirm at $65...and at that point I'd exit the position.  Ideally, the trend would last forever and the party never end.  But don't count on that.

#5: Options: In the original post I was answering the question to someone who had purchased $TSLA Puts. When I first started trading all I did was options trades. But I don't TRADE options at all anymore.  Rather I will use them to hedge or insure my long positions that are profitable - especially positions with large gains and a low volatility market.  In a perfect world, if I can insure a position at 3-5% for 6-12+ months I will do that everyday.  Sure I'm giving up 3-5% potential gain, but the longer this bull market continues the closer we get to it ending.  Once it ends or volatility increases the cost of that insurance will rise significantly.  Naked puts and calls are pure gambling in every aspect.  You are playing in a casino with odds stacked against you - granted you can win and win big but over time you lose.

#6: Finally.  I hope that answers your questions.

#7: I saw that Sand posted a note about having this thread devoid of partisan politics. I respect Sand quite a bit and have learned much from him over the years.  As well as many of you who post in here. It's rare I don't inspect further any thoughtful post from you guys.  Here's my thoughts about this.  Overall, I'm really discouraged by Footballguys. I'm not a political person at all.  But over the past couple of years I have read many threads where people post outright lies, half-truths, hateful ideology and in general the entire place has become much more mean spirited.  I believe such posts are encouraged.  My goal in coming here for 12+ years has been to escape for a few minutes.  I've learned a lot.  Even made new friends.  But I personally don't want to be tainted by negativity.  I'm sure these threads are good for the business of FBG, but it's not good for me.  And I plan to take a break from it all. I need to make sure my personal compass is set to appreciate everyone for who they are, where they are, and where they hope to go.  It's not forever, but for now. 

 It's possible there are some question some might have regarding the trading/investing details from this post and I will do my best to answer those.  As always, I'm sincere when I say "Good Luck", because that is what I want for everyone.

Good Luck!

 
Sand said:
So, I'm thinking tonight about opportunity based on latest events here - specifically SCOTUS ruling on interstate/internet taxation.  So with this who wins?  My thoughts:

1.  Amazon - they already wanted this as they want delivery times to be low and a presence in each state is a good thing for them overall. Not that this needs more tailwinds!

2.  Main street - maybe hard to buy into on a stock basis

3.  Retail B&M - so this is an interesting area.  Retail has gotten trampled lately.  I've bought into a few pummeled REITs lately, SKT and KIM, and am giving thought to buying more.  Yields are already good and I can't help but think this will push more people into physical stores. 

Thoughts?  Any other good targets?  
Click to expand...
Bought some more KIM.  Also, noted to myself that I bought a big hunk 6 weeks ago or so at 14.5.  Up 20+% on that one already, so nailed it.  This is unusual, as my short term timing (i.e. luck) tends to be pretty terrible on purchases and sales.

 
siffoin said:
#7: I saw that Sand posted a note about having this thread devoid of partisan politics. I respect Sand quite a bit and have learned much from him over the years.  As well as many of you who post in here. It's rare I don't inspect further any thoughtful post from you guys.  Here's my thoughts about this.  Overall, I'm really discouraged by Footballguys. I'm not a political person at all.  But over the past couple of years I have read many threads where people post outright lies, half-truths, hateful ideology and in general the entire place has become much more mean spirited.  I believe such posts are encouraged.  My goal in coming here for 12+ years has been to escape for a few minutes.  I've learned a lot.  Even made new friends.  But I personally don't want to be tainted by negativity.  I'm sure these threads are good for the business of FBG, but it's not good for me.  And I plan to take a break from it all. I need to make sure my personal compass is set to appreciate everyone for who they are, where they are, and where they hope to go.  It's not forever, but for now. 
Click to expand...
Just to comment on this.  That post in question was very mild (and STbugs is a good dude), but given the sniping in the political forum (and I do wade in there in all good fun and all that) I want to try and keep this thread as clean as possible as this thread along with some others in the FFA is absolutely awesome.  I don't think this thread has degraded at all (still awesome) and I sure hope that you continue to post here as I learn a great deal from your perspective.  

I am working (and have been working) on compiling some recession indicators that I think combine with your outlook quite nicely.  I agree this train has to end sometime (crystal ball: very cloudy) and there are definitely things that have worked well in the past to try and time hedges on the market when that time comes.

 
siffoin said:
Ok.  Let me try and tackle this. Let me preface this by saying - I often struggle with my own trades...and there are times (like this week) when I have a plan and follow the plan but execution fails and often at the very worst spot (ie this week there were a number of trades I made where I was right on time and direction but for one reason or another got stopped for a loss only to watch the position become profitable had I held literally for 1-2 minutes longer).  Like Mike Tyson says: "everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth".

#1:  When someone here asks me to take a look at $XYZ company on a chart - I do ZERO DD on that stock.  (Honestly - I personally don't hold a lot of stock positions.  Most everything is in ETFs or Mutual Funds.)  But ideally what we want to find are positions where DD (fundamentals) and technicals all aligned.  Ideally fundamentals tell you WHAT to buy (or sell) and technicals tell you WHEN to buy (or sell) it.

#2: TIME FRAME: When you are looking at a position Time Frame is critical.  How long do you plan to hold this position?  For example:  If I'm day trading $NQ (emini future of the Nasdaq) well I'm going to be trading off a very short term chart - like a 1, 3 or 5 minute chart (where one bar of the chart represents all the price movement in 1, 3 or 5 minutes) - because I'm looking to trade that for a small gains a couple of times per day.  If I'm looking at an ETF for my kids college fund, I'm looking at holding that for at least a few months and ideally for a few years.  In that case we're looking at daily chart (where one bar represents all the price movement in a single trading day).  So how long we plan to hold the position represents the base TIme Frame Set Point.  Example: Day Trading= 1 minute chart; Swing Trading= 60 minute chart; Investing= daily chart; VLT Market View= Weekly or Monthly Chart. Execution involves the time frame set point AND the next closest set point.  So if I'm day trading the NQ on a 1 minute chart, ideally I want my trades to be in the same direction as the hourly trend.  What I have found is that my odds of a successful trade are greater when I'm trading in the direction of the next highest trend - so if the 60 minute chart is bullish I want to take long day trades off the 1 minute chart.

#3: Taking a position.  Let's say I've done my DD on $XZY and believe it to be fundamentally strong but just now entering a new Daily Bull Trend.  Where and when do I take the position?  Example: $XYZ trading at $50.  $XYZ has support at $48 and $42.  In a perfect world - I wait for the 60 minute chart to turn bearish and then execute the long position as soon as the 60 minute trend flips back to bullish.  Giddy if it flips near that first level of support ($48).  Doing this means I have set odds in favor of having a positive position from the get-go and makes my stress level less.

#4: Managing the position:  I'm not a believer in hold forever.  Don't fall in love with a stock.  Squeeze as much juice as you can, but there will be a time to sell.  You should have that target in mind when you take the position.  You should also be prepared to take a loss on the position and have that target in mind before you ever buy it.  I'm very strict with my day trades and have a spreadsheet with formula to determine how much I will make or lose on the position.  It's not a secret.  I will risk $1 to make $2.  But because every day is different...and intraday is different - the profit/loss varies on each trade.  Typically someone might say "place a stop at a 10% loss."  That's great in theory.  However, if we look at our $XYZ position trading at $50 with bottom support at $42...I'm going to want to have a little more flexibility in that trade than a hard 10% loss ($45) because of that $42 support level.  And I'm going to want to have some flexibility around $42 because price will often tag a support level and exceed it slightly.  It sucks if you have a hard stop at $42 and find that $XYZ has a ST pullback to $41.75...only to see it 6 months later trading at $70 and you being the sucker who got stopped out $.25 from the bottom of a great stock in a bull trend.  (I KNOW THE FEELING - I'VE BEEN THERE - JUST YESTERDAY.  Don't be like me.)  What I'm saying is you need to think of support levels like a zone and what we set is a SOFT stop at $42 and watch on pins and needles and pray to the ghost of Jessie Livermore that she reverses right there. In our example: $XYZ at $50 with bottom support at $42 - we say $40-$42 is where we believe the position is wrong - that's a 20% loss...so therefore we need to believe that $XYZ will return 40% over the length we plan to hold the position. Risk $1 to make $2.  So on the $XYZ IF we're going to be willing to risk $10, but we better be sure our DD suggest a return of $20+.  Now on a day trade I have strict rules for targets.  But on an investment position- I'm going to allow the trend to take me out of the trade.  In reality $XYZ might go to $75 - top - and then enter into a bear trend...and that bear trend might confirm at $65...and at that point I'd exit the position.  Ideally, the trend would last forever and the party never end.  But don't count on that.

#5: Options: In the original post I was answering the question to someone who had purchased $TSLA Puts. When I first started trading all I did was options trades. But I don't TRADE options at all anymore.  Rather I will use them to hedge or insure my long positions that are profitable - especially positions with large gains and a low volatility market.  In a perfect world, if I can insure a position at 3-5% for 6-12+ months I will do that everyday.  Sure I'm giving up 3-5% potential gain, but the longer this bull market continues the closer we get to it ending.  Once it ends or volatility increases the cost of that insurance will rise significantly.  Naked puts and calls are pure gambling in every aspect.  You are playing in a casino with odds stacked against you - granted you can win and win big but over time you lose.

#6: Finally.  I hope that answers your questions.

#7: I saw that Sand posted a note about having this thread devoid of partisan politics. I respect Sand quite a bit and have learned much from him over the years.  As well as many of you who post in here. It's rare I don't inspect further any thoughtful post from you guys.  Here's my thoughts about this.  Overall, I'm really discouraged by Footballguys. I'm not a political person at all.  But over the past couple of years I have read many threads where people post outright lies, half-truths, hateful ideology and in general the entire place has become much more mean spirited.  I believe such posts are encouraged.  My goal in coming here for 12+ years has been to escape for a few minutes.  I've learned a lot.  Even made new friends.  But I personally don't want to be tainted by negativity.  I'm sure these threads are good for the business of FBG, but it's not good for me.  And I plan to take a break from it all. I need to make sure my personal compass is set to appreciate everyone for who they are, where they are, and where they hope to go.  It's not forever, but for now. 

 It's possible there are some question some might have regarding the trading/investing details from this post and I will do my best to answer those.  As always, I'm sincere when I say "Good Luck", because that is what I want for everyone.

Good Luck!
Click to expand...
Wow, this is incredible insight. Thank you for the time that it took to post!

 
cosjobs said:
Sand said:
Hey,  There's a whole board dedicated to this.  Talking about political decisions on the markets is fine, but if we could keep it otherwise neutral that keeps this thread clean and concentrated on what's important - green.

Thanks.   :thumbup:
Click to expand...
disagree. His policies have huge impacts and are relevant. I understand you not wanting this thread to disintegrate into partisan politics, but there is no more  impact on the market than his daily words and actions.
Click to expand...
I agree with both of you GB's.  Let's keep this on the markets and investing when speaking about the current administration.  I don't have time to be in here deleting posts.

 
Sand said:
Just to comment on this.  That post in question was very mild (and STbugs is a good dude), but given the sniping in the political forum (and I do wade in there in all good fun and all that) I want to try and keep this thread as clean as possible as this thread along with some others in the FFA is absolutely awesome.  I don't think this thread has degraded at all (still awesome) and I sure hope that you continue to post here as I learn a great deal from your perspective.  

I am working (and have been working) on compiling some recession indicators that I think combine with your outlook quite nicely.  I agree this train has to end sometime (crystal ball: very cloudy) and there are definitely things that have worked well in the past to try and time hedges on the market when that time comes.
Click to expand...
My .02 - you kind of need to bring politics to the conversation as it can have an enormous impact.  The new tax law, Brexit, trade war/negotiation, oil in general.... all major factors.

i think the Guys in here have done a good job over the years keeping the discussion pertinent to the markets and not where the press secretary is allowed to eat, as an example.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
200 more at $48.89 for 700 at $66.54

It was either this or sell stocks I really don't want to sell at this time. 
Click to expand...
Congrats to you for having the balls to stay in through all of this. It looks like my crystal ball could have been right, just a couple of months early. I already threw it out though after taking my lovely 7k+ loss.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Jul 13 GM $40 puts are good lotto tickets at 35 cents, IMO:

What I’m thinking is simple - China/US tariffs go into effect on Jul 6th, if that does happen, you better believe this US car king will get clobbered, if not, you’re punting $35 dollars per 100 shares. If we do see some escalation, $36-$37 is very possible IMO - at $37, you’re around 900% gain. I’m prob taking a shot on 10. 

US auto I think will be coming under pressure sooner or later, so I get the sense this could give investors a reason to sell, as they might be looking for one anyways.
Click to expand...
80 cents now, sold half, have profit, free roll on the balance. 

 
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good deal on amzn today.

I'd buy more if I wasn't already loaded.

She'll be back over 1700 in no time ... probably today.

 
JPM is below the 200 DMA - when the biggest bank in the world turns bearish, you're playing with fire - I'd be extremely cautious if JPM doesn't retake that average. 

Just my .02

GL

 
fantasycurse42 said:
JPM is below the 200 DMA - when the biggest bank in the world turns bearish, you're playing with fire - I'd be extremely cautious if JPM doesn't retake that average. 

Just my .02

GL
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Standing by this - if JPM doesn't find buyers soon, you'll see the spray effect here. They're 13.5% from their Jan highs. If you believe that the biggest stakeholder - JPM has more say/control with everything in the monetary system than anyone else on Earth (excluding governments). They keep falling, more pain ahead for basically everything else. 

Also, you gotta love CNBC. Their headlines always give me a chuckle:

- "In a trade war, consumers may take a hit at the cash register" MAY? I didn't click on the article, the headline was enough to know it was most likely useless - if you need CNBC to tell you that, you prob shouldn't be investing.

If our economy has ever been in a position to withstand a trade war, I'd think now is as good a time as any. I've spent the last few weeks reading heavily about trade, as I've said from the beginning, I don't think this guy is ####### around. Sure, there is a lot of rhetoric, but I don't see him backing down unless there are some serious changes to policy. Furthermore, he is in too deep, ego is too big, he can't walk away now. 

Depending on what circle you're in, prob not the most popular opinion, but there are def areas of trade policy that should be leveled off and more favorable for us. Now, I'm not a Trump fan at all, I don't like the guy, and I think he should be going about this much differently, but I'm JoeSchmo FBG, so my say doesn't go much further than this post. 

The bottom line IMO:

If these tariffs are still scheduled to go ahead by July 3rd, July 5th the latest, you prob will want to trim positions. Think you could see a serious tidal wave of rhetoric flowing on 7/6 and onwards, it will heavily rattle the market and you'd be better suited holding cash waiting for some dust to settle. I think you'll be able to buy back into the names you want for a nice discount in the following weeks/months. Crystal ball is telling me 7/6 or 7/9 can be a severe bloodbath - market is nowhere near pricing in the impact of a real trade war, but if those tariffs go through, market will have no choice, as that will officially be live ammunition being fired. 

 
Bank stress tests seem to have snapped the losing streaks of JPM and others at least short-term. Nice dividend increase and buyback announcements all around. :thumbup:

 
GM puts looking good, hoping we see some more buying tomorrow, I’ll be heavying up if so.

Got another, I like this one a lot, but you need to strap in if you’re gonna play it. I’m getting fairly aggressive. I’m playing the Cal Spreads on oil - love the front, hate the back. Think an oil spike is coming now, but production will be there by next year and demand will decrease. 

If you’re looking for high risk/high reward, the fundamentals are screaming this trade to me.

 
Trying to evaluate how to read all these reports that stock buybacks are inflating overall S&P performance.  I have a lot of stuff going long term at the end of the month and will need to do some rebalancing short of some sort of crash.

I think I may spread out my exposure a bit to more sector based ETFs and push out of the large caps which are a bit juiced.  

I have no idea how to manage international stuff.  My international stuff has done #### this year.  

A more defensive approach may be warranted imo in the 2H this year.  I would bet the technicals of the SNP without all the buybacks would look much more grim.

 
culdeus said:
Trying to evaluate how to read all these reports that stock buybacks are inflating overall S&P performance.  I have a lot of stuff going long term at the end of the month and will need to do some rebalancing short of some sort of crash.
Click to expand...
They are, and IMO a lot of them are destructive as they're buying high.  C and JPM may be exceptions as they have been pummeled lately.  C looks compelling, but I can't bring myself to buy a company that has had a significant negative return over the last 20 years.  Talk about a terrible record for investors.  These big banks do no put the stockholder at the top of the list.

 
So I sold the rest of my Tesla puts today - probably too soon but this stock, from a chart, perspective still looks bullish.  How is this possible????  90% gain on a gamble.  I still like them (puts) and will rebuys on an up tick.   We have all learned our lesson but, will put earnings back on the table for what I see as a complete loser.

eta : offset the losses from cobalt.  Time will tell

 
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@fantasycusre42 - we talked about amazon at 1665 ish still like it?  I have a ton of dry powder on the side lines ( long term money) burning  a hole in my pocket.

 
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sbonomo said:
@Sandpost more about what you are buying selling!   I have always made money with u!
Click to expand...
My turnover is quite low, to be honest.  Next purchase will probably be to flip out some muni CEF items.  Got with with an unexpected dividend drop (bad, Blackrock, bad!).  Other than that nothing is really hitting me.

 
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