Stock Thread (16 Viewers)

[General Malaise]

should we expect a stock market crash if 401ks are allowed to use private market investments?

401(k)s have investment committees that have to sign off on allowing these investments. Adoption will be slow and, if these committees have any sense, very limited. I'd say a nothing burger on the scale of things.

401(k) custodians are worse than mother's of teen girls in football rich environments. They won't greenlight investments like this unless their fees are augmented massively and even then, they don't want to risk their careers on being the agent that permitted Orange&Blue from losing all his retirement money in a buddy's carwash company.

Custodians move at a glacial pace. We will be 3 presidents deep before this ever even sees the congressional floor.

My last custodian at my company (who was part of a committee) steadfastly refused to add a real estate fund in 2007. I tried to talk to him about how it was a relatively uncorrelated asset and should be part of being diversified, etc. That jackass refused and told me not to mention it again (he was a VP, so, yeah, didn't want to get fired) - he said it had lost too much lately and couldn't in good conscience add it. That MFer probably cost me a couple hundred K as that was the ****ing bottom. Moron, complete moron.

My experience with those folks.

They're like consultants in the hedge fund space - they can't afford to stick their neck's out. One bad investment manager who blows up and your career is over. Scared money never wins. That's why they're consultants and not money managers.

 

[General Malaise]

Good day to own drone stocks.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hegseth-drone-stocks-d1f08f9c?mod=barronsgooglenews

I see I found my way to your ignore list. :kickrocks:

Totally missed it, GB. I currently have a "drone stock" at about 6% of my stuff, so today is a good day.

Just busting your balls. Yeah, I got an after-hours call from a partner all geeked up over Red Cat (the way we're playing drones). So LETSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4801554-new-military-memo-could-send-red-cat-stock-sky-high

Also on my drone stock list - KTOS, AVAV. Any others?

I'll respond more tomorrow and post snippets from our quarterly report. We like autonomous warfare stocks as a thematic investment. Kraken Robotics KRKNF is an underwater robotics company that has some really cool technology that's 400 meters above my paygrade to understand, but they have drone-like capability to launch hell from the water unmanned. Been reluctant to bring it up in here prior because I wasn't sure it was "Sponge worthy" but it's getting there for me.

 

[BassNBrew]

Good day to own drone stocks.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hegseth-drone-stocks-d1f08f9c?mod=barronsgooglenews

I see I found my way to your ignore list. :kickrocks:

Totally missed it, GB. I currently have a "drone stock" at about 6% of my stuff, so today is a good day.

Just busting your balls. Yeah, I got an after-hours call from a partner all geeked up over Red Cat (the way we're playing drones). So LETSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4801554-new-military-memo-could-send-red-cat-stock-sky-high

Also on my drone stock list - KTOS, AVAV. Any others?

I'll respond more tomorrow and post snippets from our quarterly report. We like autonomous warfare stocks as a thematic investment. Kraken Robotics KRKNF is an underwater robotics company that has some really cool technology that's 400 meters above my paygrade to understand, but they have drone-like capability to launch hell from the water unmanned. Been reluctant to bring it up in here prior because I wasn't sure it was "Sponge worthy" but it's getting there for me.

Looks good from a technical standpoint.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Speaking of glacial pace, is it time to cut losses on LYB and DOW? How likely are they to keep the current dividend?

Interested in thoughts on these. I own both and consider commodities to be ballast in my portfolio for times when tech is down and with good dividends. Are you trading these as growth stocks?

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Fed Chair about to be fired. Surely this will be good for the market. Make sure to not discuss this in any political form or fashion as in the numerous other topics that should not be discussed in any political form or fashion.

-QG

Good for the market, he said sarcastically, or good for the market is truly what QG believes?

I would assume he's firing Powell so he can put someone more doveish in that will be more likely to cut rates. Which would probably make the markets soar, at least for now until we're back in another inflation mess in a few years.

The inflation mess was caused by the massive cash gusher in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Inflation was already rising due to COVID and the cash infusions put in place there, but those two acts added massive liquidity at a time when the market couldn't absorb it. About 3T worth of gasoline on a fire.

Nothing on that scale currently. I don't think a rate cut is a good thing and don't think Powell should be replaced, but a rate cut or two isn't going to spike inflation to 9% again.

IRA was passed and signed into law in Aug 2022. Peak inflation was June 2022 (at over 9%). Infra bill was passed in Nov of 2021, six months prior to peak inflation.

 

[pecorino]

Good day to own drone stocks.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hegseth-drone-stocks-d1f08f9c?mod=barronsgooglenews

I see I found my way to your ignore list. :kickrocks:

Totally missed it, GB. I currently have a "drone stock" at about 6% of my stuff, so today is a good day.

Just busting your balls. Yeah, I got an after-hours call from a partner all geeked up over Red Cat (the way we're playing drones). So LETSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4801554-new-military-memo-could-send-red-cat-stock-sky-high

Also on my drone stock list - KTOS, AVAV. Any others?

I'll respond more tomorrow and post snippets from our quarterly report. We like autonomous warfare stocks as a thematic investment. Kraken Robotics KRKNF is an underwater robotics company that has some really cool technology that's 400 meters above my paygrade to understand, but they have drone-like capability to launch hell from the water unmanned. Been reluctant to bring it up in here prior because I wasn't sure it was "Sponge worthy" but it's getting there for me.

Sounds like they are worth investing in just for the name alone. Release the Kraken!

ETA: Vanguard will not allow its investors to release the Kraken, sadly. On to Fidelity.

 

[pecorino]

Speaking of glacial pace, is it time to cut losses on LYB and DOW? How likely are they to keep the current dividend?

I'm holding both. Been selling covered calls on DOW for almost a year which helps ameliorate the sting a bit.

 

[BassNBrew]

Speaking of glacial pace, is it time to cut losses on LYB and DOW? How likely are they to keep the current dividend?

Interested in thoughts on these. I own both and consider commodities to be ballast in my portfolio for times when tech is down and with good dividends. Are you trading these as growth stocks?

Bought them as value stocks expecting a 15-20% gain, not a 30-50% loss. Dividend helps. I really don't understand why the earnings of these two giants are off by 75% and not really expected to recover.

 

[BassNBrew]

Small positions initiated in KOPN, MXL, CRDO, and the colored cat.

 

[Sand]

Sounds like they are worth investing in just for the name alone. Release the Kraken!

ETA: Vanguard will not allow its investors to release the Kraken, sadly. On to Fidelity.

 

[Runkle]

I have now taken a long term position in VRT

My 12 month price target is $130-$135 based on continued best in class Computer/Server cooling systems that will be a major part of the AI data center infrastructure build out. THis company started this type of tech back in 1965, was acquired by EMR and then sold to Private Equity in 2016, then went public in 2020 as Vertiv Holdings.

Long term type of AI infrastructure play here in the power and cooling aspect of AI/Data Center build out.

High teens year over growth, extremely well run company and higher stock prices are in this company's future.

The stock has been beaten down this year and is down almost 7% today.

Briefly tickled 130 last week, and crossed it again today. In 4 months instead of 12. Loving it so far!

 

[BassNBrew]

I have now taken a long term position in VRT

My 12 month price target is $130-$135 based on continued best in class Computer/Server cooling systems that will be a major part of the AI data center infrastructure build out. THis company started this type of tech back in 1965, was acquired by EMR and then sold to Private Equity in 2016, then went public in 2020 as Vertiv Holdings.

Long term type of AI infrastructure play here in the power and cooling aspect of AI/Data Center build out.

High teens year over growth, extremely well run company and higher stock prices are in this company's future.

The stock has been beaten down this year and is down almost 7% today.

Briefly tickled 130 last week, and crossed it again today. In 4 months instead of 12. Loving it so far!

I added 7 days ago at $120 on the stupid pullback. Wall Street gobbling up fake news just gifting us money now.

 

[Sand]

Good day to own drone stocks.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hegseth-drone-stocks-d1f08f9c?mod=barronsgooglenews

I see I found my way to your ignore list. :kickrocks:

Totally missed it, GB. I currently have a "drone stock" at about 6% of my stuff, so today is a good day.

Just busting your balls. Yeah, I got an after-hours call from a partner all geeked up over Red Cat (the way we're playing drones). So LETSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4801554-new-military-memo-could-send-red-cat-stock-sky-high

Also on my drone stock list - KTOS, AVAV. Any others?

I'll respond more tomorrow and post snippets from our quarterly report. We like autonomous warfare stocks as a thematic investment. Kraken Robotics KRKNF is an underwater robotics company that has some really cool technology that's 400 meters above my paygrade to understand, but they have drone-like capability to launch hell from the water unmanned. Been reluctant to bring it up in here prior because I wasn't sure it was "Sponge worthy" but it's getting there for me.

UWMC sold. The Kraken has been let loose (bought). Small position to see where this goes.

 

[General Malaise]

Good day to own drone stocks.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hegseth-drone-stocks-d1f08f9c?mod=barronsgooglenews

I see I found my way to your ignore list. :kickrocks:

Totally missed it, GB. I currently have a "drone stock" at about 6% of my stuff, so today is a good day.

Just busting your balls. Yeah, I got an after-hours call from a partner all geeked up over Red Cat (the way we're playing drones). So LETSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4801554-new-military-memo-could-send-red-cat-stock-sky-high

Also on my drone stock list - KTOS, AVAV. Any others?

I'll respond more tomorrow and post snippets from our quarterly report. We like autonomous warfare stocks as a thematic investment. Kraken Robotics KRKNF is an underwater robotics company that has some really cool technology that's 400 meters above my paygrade to understand, but they have drone-like capability to launch hell from the water unmanned. Been reluctant to bring it up in here prior because I wasn't sure it was "Sponge worthy" but it's getting there for me.

Looks good from a technical standpoint.

So, here's a small snippet from the letters we sent out today:

The other theme your fund is “playing” is unmanned warfare as the unfortunate but likely future of military confrontations. Look no further than the employment of drones in the Russia/Ukraine war, but there are other avenues of autonomous warfare which prominently include the sea and unmanned submarines. Names we are using to play this theme include Kraken (PNG CN), Red Cat Holdings (RCAT), and Exail (EXA FP). Rocket Labs (RKLB) is a small but very profitable position for us on the Space side of the portfolio.

And then, this is dated - it's from our Q3 2024 newsletter, but we wrote a whole paragraph on Kraken, why we liked it back then, catalyst to own and reasons why it could climb. Back then (Oct 16, 2024) the stock closed at $0.37 USD. Today, $2.55 USD. (Thanks a lot for posting this NOW, GM. )

A new name we have added to the portfolio is Kraken Robotics (PNG CN). We believe the upside is tremendous for this high growth, small cap marine technology company that is proving to be invaluable for military and commercial offshore energy customers. Kraken specializes in ultra-high-resolution software-centric sonar and sensors, power systems, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) and batteries. Their customers include the Danish Navy, UK Royal Navy, Australian and Canadian governments, Anduril, ConocoPhilips, to name a few. What sets this company apart from its bigger brethren are twofold. First, Kraken’s sonar systems offer unmatched resolution, range, and affordability that provide ultra-high imagery ideal for subsea mine detection and critical underwater infrastructure inspection. The second catalyst-rich business line for Kraken is in subsea batteries. These pressure-tolerant battery systems can reach depths 6000 meters below surface to power underwater vehicles and devices for long durations. One customer in particular, Anduril, a private VC-backed defense company with billions of funding, has big ambitions of developing hundreds of AUVs per year, slated for production in the coming months. Analysts believe that each Anduril AUV will be equipped with $2.5M of Kraken batteries. This one customer alone for Kraken could be worth $500M + in annual revenue at full production! Kraken press released early this year that their sales pipeline exceeds $900M and we have strong indication that number has grown significantly since then. The stock trades roughly 12x EV/EBITDA which is in-line with its peer group, but we feel this stock deserves a hefty premium considering it is growing 2-3x industry average and could quite easily be an acquisition target for a whole host of companies. The ugly face of warfare is changing, as unmanned weaponry such as drones demonstrate above ground, while a company such as Kraken does so beneath the sea. The final frontier is, indeed, space, but here on earth, our oceans are still largely unexplored and unmapped. The company’s non-military related equipment is also providing wonderful innovation.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Yeah, but you loaded up at $.37, right?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I'm up about 60% on it, after reading all about it at the end of something you sent me on our little tin miner (boss' visit, I think).

Pretty, pretty good.

 

[General Malaise]

Yeah, but you loaded up at $.37, right?

Narrator: "He did not".

 

[General Malaise]

I'm up about 60% on it, after reading all about it at the end of something you sent me on our little tin miner (boss' visit, I think).

Pretty, pretty good.

Sweet! Skattaburgers on Sacamano next time out!

 

[McBokonon]

Good day to own drone stocks.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hegseth-drone-stocks-d1f08f9c?mod=barronsgooglenews

I see I found my way to your ignore list. :kickrocks:

Totally missed it, GB. I currently have a "drone stock" at about 6% of my stuff, so today is a good day.

Just busting your balls. Yeah, I got an after-hours call from a partner all geeked up over Red Cat (the way we're playing drones). So LETSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4801554-new-military-memo-could-send-red-cat-stock-sky-high

Also on my drone stock list - KTOS, AVAV. Any others?

I'll respond more tomorrow and post snippets from our quarterly report. We like autonomous warfare stocks as a thematic investment. Kraken Robotics KRKNF is an underwater robotics company that has some really cool technology that's 400 meters above my paygrade to understand, but they have drone-like capability to launch hell from the water unmanned. Been reluctant to bring it up in here prior because I wasn't sure it was "Sponge worthy" but it's getting there for me.

UWMC sold.

FINALLY

 

[Sand]

UWMC sold.

FINALLY

Funny enough, when sold I was at 1.5% overall profit, not including dividends. So not a debacle or anything. I still like the company, but the housing market is just woeful and that has persisted for way longer than I anticipated.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Might finally have to take a look at UWMC

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Capitulation and all

 

[Harry Frogfish]

So rosy in here, which is great, but we might want to take a few shots when there's an open jumper, right?

Let's talk about your best hedging ideas. Don't get carried away now, everything's fine, but besides covered calls, what are some other strategies for protection?

And please don't make this your first condom implementation either, we all know how to buy an expensive put on our BGFF, NVDA.

And I'm not talking about hitting TJ at 15. More like a 3-night fishing trip at 30, when Juan has to wake you up on a bite. Vamanos compadres! Y muchas gracias.

 

[jwb]

PDYN... Palladyne AI. I got into them a few months ago when I learned PLTR was invested. They have an interesting history - they were a robotics company, seemed to be on the rise, and I don't know exactly what happened, but they fell to the point of almost being delisted. They went in a new direction - software, specializing in AI for robotics. Company name was changed from Sarcos to Palladyne AI. Now they seem to be making some headway. Got an Air Force contract recently, and like I mentioned, I saw PLTR (who I obviously like and was in on early) was onboard.

Popped 20-something % today to about $12. They have done this before, and they could easily dip back to the $8-9 range, but the overall trend does seem to be up - I think there's something here. It fits right in with this AI / Drone / Defense stuff that seems to be on everyone's mind. Might be worth a dart throw as a long-term play.

 

[Sand]

So rosy in here, which is great, but we might want to take a few shots when there's an open jumper, right?

Let's talk about your best hedging ideas. Don't get carried away now, everything's fine, but besides covered calls, what are some other strategies for protection?

I have a bit of money in ORR - long/short ETF designed to hit 50% long exposure. Thread.

If you are really worried there are edge risk ETFs out there (ones that print when volatility spikes). They're expensive for what they offer, but they're out there.

 

[BassNBrew]

So rosy in here, which is great, but we might want to take a few shots when there's an open jumper, right?

Let's talk about your best hedging ideas. Don't get carried away now, everything's fine, but besides covered calls, what are some other strategies for protection?

And please don't make this your first condom implementation either, we all know how to buy an expensive put on our BGF, NVDA.

And I'm not talking about hitting TJ at 15. More like a 3-night fishing trip at 30, when Juan has to wake you up on a bite. Vamanos compadres! Y muchas gracias.

Pocket some gains and slowly build cash for the next opportunity.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

So rosy in here, which is great, but we might want to take a few shots when there's an open jumper, right?

Let's talk about your best hedging ideas. Don't get carried away now, everything's fine, but besides covered calls, what are some other strategies for protection?

And please don't make this your first condom implementation either, we all know how to buy an expensive put on our BGF, NVDA.

And I'm not talking about hitting TJ at 15. More like a 3-night fishing trip at 30, when Juan has to wake you up on a bite. Vamanos compadres! Y muchas gracias.

Pocket some gains and slowly build cash for the next opportunity.

I've never been a proponent of that, not for my profile anyway, but appreciate the feedback, sincerely.

Got some cash that I'll put into play as protection, have some ideas, or options as it were, but always like seeing what others are doing/thinking in a similar situation.

 

[Sand]

When thinking of hedging. In single stocks stuff, maybe a good idea if they have exploded. In the overall market, though, it's generally a bad idea.

All Time Highs are Bullish. One does better buying at ATHs than at other times. Crazy, but there it is.

 

[pecorino]

So rosy in here, which is great, but we might want to take a few shots when there's an open jumper, right?

Let's talk about your best hedging ideas. Don't get carried away now, everything's fine, but besides covered calls, what are some other strategies for protection?

And please don't make this your first condom implementation either, we all know how to buy an expensive put on our BGFF, NVDA.

And I'm not talking about hitting TJ at 15. More like a 3-night fishing trip at 30, when Juan has to wake you up on a bite. Vamanos compadres! Y muchas gracias.

I’m not rosy at all. The market is overbought. I do a bit of long / short and for the short side, I buy near-the-money SPY puts for a couple months out as downside protection. I tried to short CRWV when it was near $180 (posted it here a few pages back) but Vanguard would not allow it.

 

[Capella]

So is nvda just going to casually go to 5 trillion?

 

[BassNBrew]

So is nvda just going to casually go to 5 trillion?

Very likely.

TSM reports tomorrow, that will be telling.

 

[BassNBrew]

Just increased my MU position substantially. Forward PE now below 10.

Goldman's Sacks downgraded a competitor, warning that NVDA is gaining pricing power which could impact margins. This has impacted MU's price. Personally I need to see someone's growth slow before becoming majorly concerned.

 

[BassNBrew]

Netflix posted an earnings beat Thursday, as revenue grew 16% during the second quarter of 2025.

The company updated its full-year revenue forecast, noting that it expects revenue to be between $44.8 billion and $45.2 billion, up from a range of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion. Netflix’s higher forecast reflects the weakening of the U.S. dollar compared with other currencies as well as “healthy” member growth and ad sales, the company said in a statement.




Notably, this is the second quarter that Netflix is not releasing quarterly updates on subscription data.

“Year-over-year revenue growth was primarily a function of more members, higher subscription pricing and increased ad revenue,” the company said in a statement.

Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: $7.19 vs. $7.08, according to LSEG
• Revenue: $11.08 billion vs. $11.07 billion, according to LSEG

Net income for the period was $3.1 billion, or $7.19 per share, up from $2.1 billion, or $4.88 per share, during the same quarter a year earlier.

Revenue in the second quarter jumped nearly 16% year over year, reaching $11.08 billion.




The company reported net cash generated from operating activities during the quarter was $2.4 billion, up more than 84% from the prior-year period. Free cash flow also grew, reaching $2.3 billion, a 91% increase. Netflix increased its full-year free cash-flow guidance to between $8 billion and $8.5 billion, up from around $8 billion.

Netflix emphasized its second-quarter operating margin of 34.1%, an improvement of nearly 3 percentage points from the prior quarter and of nearly 7 percentage points from the year-earlier period.

However, it warned that “operating margin in the second half of 2025 will be lower than the first half due to higher content amortization and sales and marketing costs associated with our larger second half slate.”

 

[Bob Sacamano]

How much money are other streaming services making? Are they a net positive to their organizations? I genuinely have no idea. I know Disney+ WAS a loser for Disney, but I also recognize it takes time to build all that out and NFLX has a huge headstart on them.

It just feels like most of these competitors would be/would have been better off continuing to license their content to NFLX rather than build out the capability themselves and have to compete with 50 different streaming services for eyes.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How much money are other streaming services making? Are they a net positive to their organizations? I genuinely have no idea. I know Disney+ WAS a loser for Disney, but I also recognize it takes time to build all that out and NFLX has a huge headstart on them.

It just feels like most of these competitors would be/would have been better off continuing to license their content to NFLX rather than build out the capability themselves and have to compete with 50 different streaming services for eyes.

I have no idea the actual answer, but my impression is that all of them other than Netflix are hemorrhaging money.

 

[Sand]

The stablecoin bill has passed. This should be a good thing for US markets, particularly currency and bond markets. Both USDT and USDC are pretty much all US bond holdings - as these grow they will support the bond market here. Almost as importantly these are all pegged to the dollar, so the dollar as the reserve currency of the world gets a new anchor.

If I had any clue about the currency market I'd be betting on a turnaround of the dollar. It's way oversold and this is a pretty decent sized catalyst.

 

[General Malaise]

The stablecoin bill has passed. This should be a good thing for US markets, particularly currency and bond markets. Both USDT and USDC are pretty much all US bond holdings - as these grow they will support the bond market here. Almost as importantly these are all pegged to the dollar, so the dollar as the reserve currency of the world gets a new anchor.

If I had any clue about the currency market I'd be betting on a turnaround of the dollar. It's way oversold and this is a pretty decent sized catalyst.

Short gold.

 

[Orange&Blue]

I'd like to bring up AXP...

I have a fairly decent amount in them through my brokerage account. I've had it for years and currently have a 195% cost basis.

Probably my own skittishness, but I've been a bit concerned the past 6 months. Twice it's gone up to 330ish territory only to slip back. I know of at least one knowledge investor (monness) that have lowered their outlook.

Add in Stablecoin bill which will hurt credit card companies, not banks like Chase, and I'm becoming more convinced to sell.

Am I crazy?

 

[Hastur]

Hey, do you guys salt the stock while it is simmering, or wait to the end?

 

[Dezbelief]

Hey, do you guys salt the stock while it is simmering, or wait to the end?

Depends on what kind of pot I'm using.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

So rosy in here, which is great, but we might want to take a few shots when there's an open jumper, right?

Let's talk about your best hedging ideas. Don't get carried away now, everything's fine, but besides covered calls, what are some other strategies for protection?

And please don't make this your first condom implementation either, we all know how to buy an expensive put on our BGFF, NVDA.

And I'm not talking about hitting TJ at 15. More like a 3-night fishing trip at 30, when Juan has to wake you up on a bite. Vamanos compadres! Y muchas gracias.

Short JPM.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Running a little hot: https://companiesmarketcap.com/jp-morgan-chase/pb-ratio/

 

[BassNBrew]

So is nvda just going to casually go to 5 trillion?

Actually TSM reported yesterday....

Nvidia Stock Gains. Why Taiwan Semi’s Outlook Is Good News for the Chip Maker.​

By Adam Clark



Nvidia chips are the dominant choice for training artificial-intelligence models. (Joel Saget/AFP via Getty Images)
Nvidia


NVDA
+0.95%
stock rose on Thursday. The chip maker is continuing to feel the benefits of resumed access to the Chinese market.


Nvidia shares were up 1% at $173 in Thursday trading. The stock rose 0.4% on Wednesday.

Continued demand for artificial-intelligence chips was underlined Thursday by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing


TSM
+3.38%
—Nvidia’s key supplier—which reported a 61% jump in quarterly profit and raised its revenue outlook for the year. American depositary receipts of TSMC gained 3.4%.


“TSMC’s tone in AI is more positive than three months ago, and we think that reflects the recent sovereign demand and all [the] new gigawatt data center plans globally,” wrote Jefferies equity sales specialist William Beavington.



On a conference call after the earnings report, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said the AI mega-trend continues to be strong and the company has not seen any changes in customer behavior for the second half of this year.

He also said, “demand from AI is getting stronger and stronger if you pay attention to the $4 trillion company CEO,” referencing Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

That boom is only likely to get bigger with Nvidia’s return to the Chinese market. During a media briefing in Beijing on Wednesday, Huang praised the country’s technology development, the same week it was confirmed the Trump administration would allow Nvidia to resume selling H20 AI chips in China.

 

[BassNBrew]

This is a little more TSM specific...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), better known as TSMC, on Thursday beat earnings estimates for the second quarter. It also guided above views for the current period. TSMC stock rose on the news.

TSMC, the world's largest contract chip manufacturer, earned $2.47 per U.S. share on sales of $30.07 billion in the June quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of $2.38 a share on sales of $30.21 billion. In the year-earlier period, the chipmaker earned $1.47 a share on sales of $20.66 billion.



Nvidia Can Sell AI Chips To China Again. Why That's A Big Deal.
See All Videos

In local currency, TSMC earnings increased 60.7% year over year while sales rose 38.6%.

For the current quarter, TSMC expects revenue of $31.8 billion to $33 billion. The midpoint of $32.4 billion topped Wall Street's target of $30.7 billion. In the third quarter last year, it posted sales of $23.62 billion.

"Our business in the second quarter was supported by continued robust AI and HPC-related demand," Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said in a news release. TSMC is a top maker of chips for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.


"Moving into third quarter 2025, we expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies," he said.

In the second quarter, shipments of 3-nanometer chips accounted for 24% of TSMC's total wafer revenue and 5-nanometer chips accounted for 36%. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and smaller nodes, accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue.

TSMC Stock Is a Recent Breakout​

TSMC also raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to about 30% from the previous 24% to 26%.

"TSMC delivered a strong beat-and-raise quarter, with the Q3 revenue outlook vastly exceeding consensus estimates and implied EPS guidance well ahead of the Street, despite the gross-margin headwinds due to FX and overseas fab production ramp," Needham analyst Charles Shi said in a client note. He rates TSMC stock as buy with a price target of 270.

 

[General Malaise]

Guess the interview went well with Maria for UAMY....

 

[QUEZILLA]

I’ve been tracking Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK) since 2020 and started accumulating shares last summer at approximately $0.28, anticipating a favorable political shift with Trump’s potential re-election. Post-election, the stock surged, driven by market optimism, but recently plummeted to around $1.04.
My sell triggers were activated during a significant drop before the July 4th weekend, leading me to exit part of my position. I re-entered at a lower price point, retaining half my original stake. The stock rebounded after the holiday, fueled by news of negotiations with the EPA, but crashed again this week, with headlines attributing the decline to insider selling. I suspect market manipulation may be at play, and I remain optimistic about NAK’s potential. If the Pebble Project secures permitting, I believe the stock could rapidly climb to $2.30 or higher.
There’s also speculation that the U.S. government might take a stake in NAK, similar to its recent investment in MP Materials, which could further boost its value.

 

[BassNBrew]

Draganfly up 16% today. Took 1/2 my stake of the table at 132% gain. It had grown to 0.5% of my portfolio which is high for a company I bought solely on technical analysis, has declining revenue, and loses money.

The Fidelity name is probably another warning sign....DRAGANFLY INC COM NPV (POST REV SPLIT)

 

[Sand]

Release the Kraken!!!

Up 5% today.

I'm liking having this stock a bunch. Pretty much just because I now have the moral authority to scream "Release the Kraken!!!" whenever I damn well please.

 

[pecorino]

Anyone wading into Centene (CNC)? Down 50% the past month, down 60% the past year. Trading at PE of 4. Been a falling knife for a couple weeks now.

 

[pecorino]

Lockheed (LMT) with a big swing and a miss on earnings this morning, down 8%. I'll be watching.