Stock Thread (20 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

You AMD backers in here need a big old hug and a bottle of top shelf spirits. Wowsers.

Hoping this is Palantir part two in the making. I read they are hiking the MI350 price by 70%. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-hikes-mi350-ai-gpu-205052675.html. That only happens if you are selling everything in sight.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Fed Chair about to be fired. Surely this will be good for the market. Make sure to not discuss this in any political form or fashion as in the numerous other topics that should not be discussed in any political form or fashion.

-QG

Good for the market, he said sarcastically, or good for the market is truly what QG believes?

I would assume he's firing Powell so he can put someone more doveish in that will be more likely to cut rates. Which would probably make the markets soar, at least for now until we're back in another inflation mess in a few years.

The inflation mess was caused by the massive cash gusher in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Inflation was already rising due to COVID and the cash infusions put in place there, but those two acts added massive liquidity at a time when the market couldn't absorb it. About 3T worth of gasoline on a fire.

Nothing on that scale currently. I don't think a rate cut is a good thing and don't think Powell should be replaced, but a rate cut or two isn't going to spike inflation to 9% again.

Josh Hawley introduces legislation to support tariff checks. Link I don't think this is going to drive the Fed to lower interest rates.

So we are collecting a new tax on people only to turn around and give it back to the people being taxed? Why not just remove/reduce the tax?

 

[urbanhack]

Fed Chair about to be fired. Surely this will be good for the market. Make sure to not discuss this in any political form or fashion as in the numerous other topics that should not be discussed in any political form or fashion.

-QG

Good for the market, he said sarcastically, or good for the market is truly what QG believes?

I would assume he's firing Powell so he can put someone more doveish in that will be more likely to cut rates. Which would probably make the markets soar, at least for now until we're back in another inflation mess in a few years.

The inflation mess was caused by the massive cash gusher in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Inflation was already rising due to COVID and the cash infusions put in place there, but those two acts added massive liquidity at a time when the market couldn't absorb it. About 3T worth of gasoline on a fire.

Nothing on that scale currently. I don't think a rate cut is a good thing and don't think Powell should be replaced, but a rate cut or two isn't going to spike inflation to 9% again.

Josh Hawley introduces legislation to support tariff checks. Link I don't think this is going to drive the Fed to lower interest rates.

While the US had an unheard of surplus in June (27B) thanks to tariff revenue, not sure this is the best way to spend it. Maybe fill in the Grand Canyon size hole in our treasury first. Signaling that would help the sentiment of a stable US dollar, which is all important.

The tariff revenue that was paid directly to the US from American businesses and individuals? So essentially a tax?

 

[Sand]

The tariff revenue that was paid directly to the US from American businesses and individuals? So essentially a tax?

The data so far says that the tariffs are largely being eaten by foreign suppliers. Inflation is low. Who knows how long that lasts, but so far it has been a net positive (again, spread across all sectors).

 

[Sparky Polastri]

The tariff revenue that was paid directly to the US from American businesses and individuals? So essentially a tax?

The data so far says that the tariffs are largely being eaten by foreign suppliers. Inflation is low. Who knows how long that lasts, but so far it has been a net positive (again, spread across all sectors).

Show me. I've been following this pretty closely and everything I've seen lends to the "this is pretty muddy and it's still really unclear who is footing the increases right now". As an example, our current situation is really based on goods stockpiled prior to tariffs taking effect. Those stockpiles are estimated to last through the month of August, so Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec are going to be where we see meaningful impacts on supply side of the equation. The one area that seems to be impacted where we can see tangible impacts is the auto industry and if the bold is true, the automakers are lying (which is entirely possible. Just don't know)

 

[Runkle]

NVO and LLY taking a hit... might be looking at getting some more shares if they continue to dip...

 

[General Malaise]

The tariff revenue that was paid directly to the US from American businesses and individuals? So essentially a tax?

The data so far says that the tariffs are largely being eaten by foreign suppliers. Inflation is low. Who knows how long that lasts, but so far it has been a net positive (again, spread across all sectors).

Inflation is low? It's $4.35/Gallon for unregular gas out here. Groceries are NOT coming back down. Where is inflation low?

And the fact that we don't roll health care premiums into the inflation number is BS. Our premiums are jumping from $6,800 to $9,400 if we stay with Regence without changing a thing to our policy. Low inflation my eye.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Objectively, inflation is "stuck". It's crept up a tiny bit in the last couple months, but it's not made much progress getting back to that 2% goal this year.

 

[Sand]

Inflation is low? It's $4.35/Gallon for unregular gas out here. Groceries are NOT coming back down. Where is inflation low?

Maybe go to a place that has regular gas? Prices are definitely not coming down, but they, at least right now, are not increasing much. Economists are terrified of deflation, so that one is definitely not going to happen.

BTW, I'm paying $2.89/gallon here. So it's likely your state is taxing the living **** out of you.

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

And the fact that we don't roll health care premiums into the inflation number is BS. Our premiums are jumping from $6,800 to $9,400 if we stay with Regence without changing a thing to our policy. Low inflation my eye.

Insurance is eating my budget, as well. I'm not sure how that is rolled into CPI.

 

[Sand]

The tariff revenue that was paid directly to the US from American businesses and individuals? So essentially a tax?

The data so far says that the tariffs are largely being eaten by foreign suppliers. Inflation is low. Who knows how long that lasts, but so far it has been a net positive (again, spread across all sectors).

Show me. I've been following this pretty closely and everything I've seen lends to the "this is pretty muddy and it's still really unclear who is footing the increases right now". As an example, our current situation is really based on goods stockpiled prior to tariffs taking effect. Those stockpiles are estimated to last through the month of August, so Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec are going to be where we see meaningful impacts on supply side of the equation. The one area that seems to be impacted where we can see tangible impacts is the auto industry and if the bold is true, the automakers are lying (which is entirely possible. Just don't know)

I'll have to go dig. It might have been on CNBC.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Coreweave. Feels like Roblox 2.0.

IPO.
Shoots up like crazy.
Drops like crazy.
Slowly goes up over a few years with really nice % gains.

Might be worth looking at. Still kicking myself for not going in post IPO, but that was a rough patch in the market and I was worried.

 

[General Malaise]

Inflation is low? It's $4.35/Gallon for unregular gas out here. Groceries are NOT coming back down. Where is inflation low?

Maybe go to a place that has regular gas? Prices are definitely not coming down, but they, at least right now, are not increasing much. Economists are terrified of deflation, so that one is definitely not going to happen.

BTW, I'm paying $2.89/gallon here. So it's likely your state is taxing the living **** out of you.

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

And the fact that we don't roll health care premiums into the inflation number is BS. Our premiums are jumping from $6,800 to $9,400 if we stay with Regence without changing a thing to our policy. Low inflation my eye.

Insurance is eating my budget, as well. I'm not sure how that is rolled into CPI.

Think the word I was looking for there was 'unleaded'.

Gas prices on the west coast are stupid bad. But if that's a tax for me living here and not Missouri or a state that begins with the letter 'I' so be it.

 

[Sand]

Inflation is low? It's $4.35/Gallon for unregular gas out here. Groceries are NOT coming back down. Where is inflation low?

Maybe go to a place that has regular gas? Prices are definitely not coming down, but they, at least right now, are not increasing much. Economists are terrified of deflation, so that one is definitely not going to happen.

BTW, I'm paying $2.89/gallon here. So it's likely your state is taxing the living **** out of you.

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

And the fact that we don't roll health care premiums into the inflation number is BS. Our premiums are jumping from $6,800 to $9,400 if we stay with Regence without changing a thing to our policy. Low inflation my eye.

Insurance is eating my budget, as well. I'm not sure how that is rolled into CPI.

Think the word I was looking for there was 'unleaded'.

Gas prices on the west coast are stupid bad. But if that's a tax for me living here and not Missouri or a state that begins with the letter 'I' so be it.

Maybe then don't do stuff like this out there if you want reasonable fuel prices?

https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/gas-could-spike-to-8-per-gallon-as-two-major-refineries-shut-down-and-thats-not-all-are-the-states-strong-regulations-worth-the-cost

 

[General Malaise]

Inflation is low? It's $4.35/Gallon for unregular gas out here. Groceries are NOT coming back down. Where is inflation low?

Maybe go to a place that has regular gas? Prices are definitely not coming down, but they, at least right now, are not increasing much. Economists are terrified of deflation, so that one is definitely not going to happen.

BTW, I'm paying $2.89/gallon here. So it's likely your state is taxing the living **** out of you.

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

And the fact that we don't roll health care premiums into the inflation number is BS. Our premiums are jumping from $6,800 to $9,400 if we stay with Regence without changing a thing to our policy. Low inflation my eye.

Insurance is eating my budget, as well. I'm not sure how that is rolled into CPI.

Think the word I was looking for there was 'unleaded'.

Gas prices on the west coast are stupid bad. But if that's a tax for me living here and not Missouri or a state that begins with the letter 'I' so be it.

Maybe then don't do stuff like this out there if you want reasonable fuel prices?

https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/gas-could-spike-to-8-per-gallon-as-two-major-refineries-shut-down-and-thats-not-all-are-the-states-strong-regulations-worth-the-cost

No disagreement here. Not sure I have any control over that. Guess I'll go EV soon.

 

[Runkle]

Coreweave. Feels like Roblox 2.0.

IPO.
Shoots up like crazy.
Drops like crazy.
Slowly goes up over a few years with really nice % gains.

Might be worth looking at. Still kicking myself for not going in post IPO, but that was a rough patch in the market and I was worried.

Waiting for it to hit the Todem price

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Hopped on the Kraken bandwagon today.

 

[urbanhack]

Inflation is low? It's $4.35/Gallon for unregular gas out here. Groceries are NOT coming back down. Where is inflation low?

Maybe go to a place that has regular gas? Prices are definitely not coming down, but they, at least right now, are not increasing much. Economists are terrified of deflation, so that one is definitely not going to happen.

BTW, I'm paying $2.89/gallon here. So it's likely your state is taxing the living **** out of you.

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

And the fact that we don't roll health care premiums into the inflation number is BS. Our premiums are jumping from $6,800 to $9,400 if we stay with Regence without changing a thing to our policy. Low inflation my eye.

Insurance is eating my budget, as well. I'm not sure how that is rolled into CPI.

Think the word I was looking for there was 'unleaded'.

Gas prices on the west coast are stupid bad. But if that's a tax for me living here and not Missouri or a state that begins with the letter 'I' so be it.

Maybe then don't do stuff like this out there if you want reasonable fuel prices?

https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/gas-could-spike-to-8-per-gallon-as-two-major-refineries-shut-down-and-thats-not-all-are-the-states-strong-regulations-worth-the-cost

Lack of refineries or issues with refineries on the west coast has been an issue with gas prices for a number of years now.

 

[BassNBrew]

Inflation is low? It's $4.35/Gallon for unregular gas out here. Groceries are NOT coming back down. Where is inflation low?

Maybe go to a place that has regular gas? Prices are definitely not coming down, but they, at least right now, are not increasing much. Economists are terrified of deflation, so that one is definitely not going to happen.

BTW, I'm paying $2.89/gallon here. So it's likely your state is taxing the living **** out of you.

12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

www.bls.gov

And the fact that we don't roll health care premiums into the inflation number is BS. Our premiums are jumping from $6,800 to $9,400 if we stay with Regence without changing a thing to our policy. Low inflation my eye.

Insurance is eating my budget, as well. I'm not sure how that is rolled into CPI.

Think the word I was looking for there was 'unleaded'.

Gas prices on the west coast are stupid bad. But if that's a tax for me living here and not Missouri or a state that begins with the letter 'I' so be it.

Maybe then don't do stuff like this out there if you want reasonable fuel prices?

https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/gas-could-spike-to-8-per-gallon-as-two-major-refineries-shut-down-and-thats-not-all-are-the-states-strong-regulations-worth-the-cost

No disagreement here. Not sure I have any control over that. Guess I'll go EV soon.

You won't regret it. Tax credit drops off September 30th so time is of the essence if you want that.

 

[BassNBrew]

The tariff revenue that was paid directly to the US from American businesses and individuals? So essentially a tax?

The data so far says that the tariffs are largely being eaten by foreign suppliers. Inflation is low. Who knows how long that lasts, but so far it has been a net positive (again, spread across all sectors).

Inflation is low? It's $4.35/Gallon for unregular gas out here. Groceries are NOT coming back down. Where is inflation low?

And the fact that we don't roll health care premiums into the inflation number is BS. Our premiums are jumping from $6,800 to $9,400 if we stay with Regence without changing a thing to our policy. Low inflation my eye.

Just wait until you approach 60. We are $1035 per person with a $7000 deductible and $9200 out of pocket. I guess I can't say that it's not inflationary because it would be stupid to pay that in the first place. Between negotiating cash payments and tax deductions we would need a $90-$100k for the insurance to make sense. All that said, your point make 100% sense.

 

[BassNBrew]

Ouch...glad I dodged this one...

Spotify shares dropped more than 11% Tuesday for their worst day since July 2023 after the music streaming service fell short of Wall Street’s expectations and posted weak guidance for the current quarter.

Here’s how the company did versus LSEG estimates:

• Loss: Loss of .42 euros vs. earnings of 1.90 euros per share expected
• Revenue: 4.19 billion euros vs. 4.26 billion expected

The Swedish platform’s revenues rose 10% from about 3.81 billion euros in the year-ago period. The company posted a net loss of 86 million euros, or a loss of .42 euros per share, down from net income of 225 million euros, or 1.10 euros per share a year ago.

Spotify said that higher personnel, marketing and professional services costs and 115 million euros worth of what it called social charges contributed to the results.

Third-quarter guidance came up short of Wall Street’s forecast.

The company expects revenues to reach 4.2 billion euros, compared to a 4.47 billion euro estimate from StreetAccount. Spotify said the forecast accounts for a 490-basis-point headwind due to foreign exchange rates.

 

[Nick Vermeil]

The tariff revenue that was paid directly to the US from American businesses and individuals? So essentially a tax?

The data so far says that the tariffs are largely being eaten by foreign suppliers.

Anecdotally, not in my case. Not one vendor is eating the tariff. Tariffs plus dollar weakness against the euro is hurting us, particularly on previously duty free goods (loose stones that can't be sourced in the US).

 

[Harry Frogfish]

So what's the board think about the Palo Alto / CyberArk deal? PANW is one I've wanted for a long time.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

So what's the board think about the Palo Alto / CyberArk deal? PANW is one I've wanted for a long time.

Have lots of PANW and love it. Need to check the deal details. Up biggly at this point and it’s almost always under the Morningstar fair value.

 

[BassNBrew]

Sold half my Sofi on the 17% pop. Most of those were double up and the weighting in the portfolio had grown uncomfortably large.

Damn I got lucky....dilution wiped out the entire pop.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) (“SoFi” or the “Company”) today announced an underwritten public offering of $1.5 billion of shares of its common stock. In connection with the offering, SoFi expects to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15% of the shares of common stock offered in the offering. All of the shares of common stock in the offering will be sold by SoFi. SoFi intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including working capital and other business opportunities.

Now I need to think about selling the balance because Sofi will be stuck in a channel for quite awhile.

 

[BassNBrew]

FUBO: This was a yawner today until after hours where it's up 7%.

FuboTV raises Q2 revenue view to $373.5M from $352M, consensus $353.77M​

Sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA at least $20M. The company said, “Fubo‘s second quarter net loss is expected to be approximately $8 million, an improvement of approximately $18 million year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be at least $20 million, an increase of at least $30 million YoY, which would represent Fubo’s first quarter of positive AEBITDA. The Company is also expected to end the quarter with at least $285 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash. The Company is pleased with its preliminary second quarter results, including the YoY improvement in net loss and achievement of positive AEBITDA. At this time, Fubo will pause providing guidance of future results while the proposed business combination with Hulu + Live TV is pending. The Company remains committed to operating its business to align with long-term value creation, in the best interests of its shareholders. Fubo recognizes the need to retain flexibility during this period leading up to the anticipated business combination. As a result, Fubo is withdrawing its previously communicated 2025 profitability target, and pausing providing subscriber and revenue guidance.”

I'll be looking to add on a pullback.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

CSCO. Not as easy a sell as I thought. So many others I'd rather have, duh, and it's like seeing one of the FBG top 486 songs from the 90's list or whatever.

But if you look a little deeper, and even just on technicals, it's hard to dump the whole lot.

 

[The Z Machine]

The tariff revenue that was paid directly to the US from American businesses and individuals? So essentially a tax?

The data so far says that the tariffs are largely being eaten by foreign suppliers.

Anecdotally, not in my case. Not one vendor is eating the tariff. Tariffs plus dollar weakness against the euro is hurting us, particularly on previously duty free goods (loose stones that can't be sourced in the US).

My company posted earnings and the stock dropped like 7%. Tariffs took 3% of operating margin. This is a US based company with 100+ year old roots in the Northeast. We've been raising prices and trying to mitigate but you can't undo deals and plans made that quickly.

 

[urbanhack]

So what's the board think about the Palo Alto / CyberArk deal? PANW is one I've wanted for a long time.

Have lots of PANW and love it. Need to check the deal details. Up biggly at this point and it’s almost always under the Morningstar fair value.

buying more on this big drop. wow

 

[MTskibum]

The bubble is coming.

35% of the stock market is supported by 6 companies buying GPU's.

Bloomberg estimates that Microsoft spends roughly 47% of its capital expenditures directly on Nvidia’s chips and accounts for nearly 19% of Nvidia’s revenue on an annualized basis.

Meanwhile, 25% of Meta's capital expenditures go to Nvidia and the company accounts for just over 9% of Nvidia’s annual revenue.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-spending-drove-nvidias-rise-154027146.html


Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla will have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI in the last two years, all to make around $35 billion. That spending will go down soon, and NVDA will tank because demand for GPU's will tank.

Microsoft, Meta Face Investor Scrutiny Over AI Spending Binge

Earnings season for a handful of megacap tech firms has morphed into capex season with the AI arms race showing no signs of slowing.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[ConstruxBoy]

So what's the board think about the Palo Alto / CyberArk deal? PANW is one I've wanted for a long time.

Have lots of PANW and love it. Need to check the deal details. Up biggly at this point and it’s almost always under the Morningstar fair value.

buying more on this big drop. wow

Just did the same

 

[BassNBrew]

Big Cake fan.....

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.16 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.06 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.09 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +9.43%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this restaurant chain would post earnings of $0.81 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.93, delivering a surprise of +14.81%.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

So what's the board think about the Palo Alto / CyberArk deal? PANW is one I've wanted for a long time.

Have lots of PANW and love it. Need to check the deal details. Up biggly at this point and it’s almost always under the Morningstar fair value.

buying more on this big drop. wow

Just did the same

lol. I sold half my position earlier this year just shy of $189.

Buying back 3% cheaper?

 

[identikit]

The bubble is coming.

35% of the stock market is supported by 6 companies buying GPU's.

Bloomberg estimates that Microsoft spends roughly 47% of its capital expenditures directly on Nvidia’s chips and accounts for nearly 19% of Nvidia’s revenue on an annualized basis.

Meanwhile, 25% of Meta's capital expenditures go to Nvidia and the company accounts for just over 9% of Nvidia’s annual revenue.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-spending-drove-nvidias-rise-154027146.html


Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla will have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI in the last two years, all to make around $35 billion. That spending will go down soon, and NVDA will tank because demand for GPU's will tank.

Microsoft, Meta Face Investor Scrutiny Over AI Spending Binge

Earnings season for a handful of megacap tech firms has morphed into capex season with the AI arms race showing no signs of slowing.

www.bloomberg.com

Oh noes

 

[Schmeabs]

The bubble is coming.

35% of the stock market is supported by 6 companies buying GPU's.

Bloomberg estimates that Microsoft spends roughly 47% of its capital expenditures directly on Nvidia’s chips and accounts for nearly 19% of Nvidia’s revenue on an annualized basis.

Meanwhile, 25% of Meta's capital expenditures go to Nvidia and the company accounts for just over 9% of Nvidia’s annual revenue.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-spending-drove-nvidias-rise-154027146.html


Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla will have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI in the last two years, all to make around $35 billion. That spending will go down soon, and NVDA will tank because demand for GPU's will tank.

Microsoft, Meta Face Investor Scrutiny Over AI Spending Binge

Earnings season for a handful of megacap tech firms has morphed into capex season with the AI arms race showing no signs of slowing.

www.bloomberg.com

Except we are still in the early stage of the AI boom

 

[MTskibum]

The bubble is coming.

35% of the stock market is supported by 6 companies buying GPU's.

Bloomberg estimates that Microsoft spends roughly 47% of its capital expenditures directly on Nvidia’s chips and accounts for nearly 19% of Nvidia’s revenue on an annualized basis.

Meanwhile, 25% of Meta's capital expenditures go to Nvidia and the company accounts for just over 9% of Nvidia’s annual revenue.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-spending-drove-nvidias-rise-154027146.html


Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla will have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI in the last two years, all to make around $35 billion. That spending will go down soon, and NVDA will tank because demand for GPU's will tank.

Microsoft, Meta Face Investor Scrutiny Over AI Spending Binge

Earnings season for a handful of megacap tech firms has morphed into capex season with the AI arms race showing no signs of slowing.

www.bloomberg.com

Except we are still in the early stage of the AI boom

I am planting my flag, although I think we are still ~9-18 months away.

I have not posted about upcoming bubble in last few months, and this is last time i will bring it up for next 2-3 months unless something major happens.

Everyone in the world disagrees with me, or else NVDA wouldnt be most valuable company in world.

I should make a meme using below site, lol

Yes, you are all wrong Meme Generator - Imgflip

Insanely fast, mobile-friendly meme generator. Make Yes, you are all wrong memes or upload your own images to make custom memes

imgflip.com

 

[BassNBrew]

My worry is that we haven't even seen any of the bad effects of the tariffs.

• Inflation
• Reduced capital expenditure from fortune 500 companies
• Increase in US Debt due to 30 year bond interest rates

When people start seeing these effects will the market continue to go down or by the time these effects are realized the market should be stabilized. On one hand the market is supposed to be forward looking, however the market didn't really start tanking until tariff's went into effect. So this kind of goes against the forward looking aspect.

I still think the market will tank caused mainly by NVDA and AI market tanking.

On the venture capital front as soon as they quit pumping money into these companies that will be a major source of income for nvidia that will dry up. Also, not just the venture capital. Fortune 500 companies today are investing in AI, however investments by fortune 500 companies is going to go down over next few quarters and software/AI teams are going to part of those cuts. This will further weaken nvidia's market.

Preliminary data from PitchBook for the fourth quarter of 2024 shows that, in value terms, 50.8% of global VC funding was deployed in AI-focused companies, almost double its share from the same quarter of 2023. By number of deals, VC investment into AI-focused companies fell by 16.6% over the same period, but due to a declining number of total VC investments, AI’s share of deals still rose from 21.4% to 25.9%.

AI dominates venture capital funding in 2024

Half of all VC invested worldwide in the fourth quarter went to AI-focused companies

www.fdiintelligence.com

The bubble is coming.

35% of the stock market is supported by 6 companies buying GPU's.

Bloomberg estimates that Microsoft spends roughly 47% of its capital expenditures directly on Nvidia’s chips and accounts for nearly 19% of Nvidia’s revenue on an annualized basis.

Meanwhile, 25% of Meta's capital expenditures go to Nvidia and the company accounts for just over 9% of Nvidia’s annual revenue.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-spending-drove-nvidias-rise-154027146.html


Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla will have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI in the last two years, all to make around $35 billion. That spending will go down soon, and NVDA will tank because demand for GPU's will tank.

Microsoft, Meta Face Investor Scrutiny Over AI Spending Binge

Earnings season for a handful of megacap tech firms has morphed into capex season with the AI arms race showing no signs of slowing.

www.bloomberg.com

Inflation flat, capex up, debt down. While you are correct the 35% of the market is supported by 6 companies, most of those companies aren't all in on AI.

Amazon - cloud, groceries, deliveries, media
Meta - advertising, social media
Google - advertising, cloud, media, business suite, taxis
Microsoft - software, cloud
Tesla - cars, robotics, taxis
Apple - phones, computers, media

Personally I'm encouraged by the fact that AI sucks at the moment. More money is going to be dumped into it chasing relevant use. These companies would still be dominant w/o AI, they are chasing another pillar.

Also this rally has been supported by huge non-AI values like Cake, Celsius, Fubo, Elf, EL, Sofi. Cake's forward PE is 16 and I'm not sure that takes into account their big beat. Flower Child and North Italia expanding to support growth year it's trading a non-growth company.

Personally I've been trimming and locking in profits where I see a potential bubble. That said, AMD isn't raising their prices by 70% because demand is slowing.

 

[BassNBrew]

The bubble is coming.

35% of the stock market is supported by 6 companies buying GPU's.

Bloomberg estimates that Microsoft spends roughly 47% of its capital expenditures directly on Nvidia’s chips and accounts for nearly 19% of Nvidia’s revenue on an annualized basis.

Meanwhile, 25% of Meta's capital expenditures go to Nvidia and the company accounts for just over 9% of Nvidia’s annual revenue.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-spending-drove-nvidias-rise-154027146.html


Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla will have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI in the last two years, all to make around $35 billion. That spending will go down soon, and NVDA will tank because demand for GPU's will tank.

Microsoft, Meta Face Investor Scrutiny Over AI Spending Binge

Earnings season for a handful of megacap tech firms has morphed into capex season with the AI arms race showing no signs of slowing.

www.bloomberg.com

Except we are still in the early stage of the AI boom

I am planting my flag, although I think we are still ~9-18 months away.

I have not posted about upcoming bubble in last few months, and this is last time i will bring it up for next 2-3 months unless something major happens.

Everyone in the world disagrees with me, or else NVDA wouldnt be most valuable company in world.

I should make a meme using below site, lol

Yes, you are all wrong Meme Generator - Imgflip

Insanely fast, mobile-friendly meme generator. Make Yes, you are all wrong memes or upload your own images to make custom memes

imgflip.com

Your perspective is welcome and definately a gut check. Even though I strongly disagree, please keep posting. The last thing we need is an echo chamber of FOMO.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I think it's good perspective. But I also think it makes sense. Up front, who is most likely to spend the most to get the early-mover advantage in AI? Of course it is the companies listed. If it proves out, you're going to have lots of fast-followers. If it doesn't, it was never going to be anyway.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

So what's the board think about the Palo Alto / CyberArk deal? PANW is one I've wanted for a long time.

Have lots of PANW and love it. Need to check the deal details. Up biggly at this point and it’s almost always under the Morningstar fair value.

buying more on this big drop. wow

Just did the same

lol. I sold half my position earlier this year just shy of $189.

Buying back 3% cheaper?

This was a little disheartening. So I looked.

2/25/25 Sold PANW $188.86
2/25/25 Bought KRKNF $1.55

I can live with that.

 

[General Malaise]

Anybody got any thoughts on Graphene? Got another lottery stock here if anybody is mildly curious about graphene. Check out Hyrdropraph. I haven't made it much further than the "Leadership" tab for, uh, reasons.

 

[BassNBrew]

Again major props to @Todem on VRT

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.95 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.67 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +14.46%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.62 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.64, delivering a surprise of +3.23%.


Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Vertiv, which belongs to the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, posted revenues of $2.64 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.86%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.95 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Vertiv shares have added about 25.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.3%.

Stock ran to $151 before profit taking knocked it back to $140...currently at $145 up 2%. YoY you have a 42% increase in earnings and 35% in revenue which supports the price appreciation.

 

[BassNBrew]

Teradyne up 21% and I don't know why...I'm fully exiting here.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Again major props to @Todem on VRT

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.95 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.67 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +14.46%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.62 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.64, delivering a surprise of +3.23%.


Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Vertiv, which belongs to the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, posted revenues of $2.64 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.86%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.95 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Vertiv shares have added about 25.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.3%.

Stock ran to $151 before profit taking knocked it back to $140...currently at $145 up 2%. YoY you have a 42% increase in earnings and 35% in revenue which supports the price appreciation.

I’m up 95% since loading up after Liberation Day.

 

[General Malaise]

Again major props to @Todem on VRT

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.95 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.67 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +14.46%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.62 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.64, delivering a surprise of +3.23%.


Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Vertiv, which belongs to the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, posted revenues of $2.64 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.86%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.95 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Vertiv shares have added about 25.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.3%.

Stock ran to $151 before profit taking knocked it back to $140...currently at $145 up 2%. YoY you have a 42% increase in earnings and 35% in revenue which supports the price appreciation.

Indeed. I really couldn't tell you what these guys do and I'm up 66% on the position.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Anybody got any thoughts on Graphene? Got another lottery stock here if anybody is mildly curious about graphene. Check out Hyrdropraph. I haven't made it much further than the "Leadership" tab for, uh, reasons.

https://gifs.cackhanded.net/ghostbusters/yes-have-some.gif

If that makes me a Nazi, so be it.

 

[Capella]

NVDA March buys (think it was March, maybe Feb?) taking me to heights I didn’t think I’d see for a few more years. I run projections every year and I didn’t think I’d be here until late 2027. Crazy. Not bragging at all bc it could tank tomorrow just feeling very fortunate.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Again major props to @Todem on VRT

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.95 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.67 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +14.46%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.62 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.64, delivering a surprise of +3.23%.


Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Vertiv, which belongs to the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, posted revenues of $2.64 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.86%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.95 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Vertiv shares have added about 25.6% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.3%.

Stock ran to $151 before profit taking knocked it back to $140...currently at $145 up 2%. YoY you have a 42% increase in earnings and 35% in revenue which supports the price appreciation.

Indeed. I really couldn't tell you what these guys do and I'm up 66% on the position.

They build and run data centers. Pretty important in the world of AI.

 

[Sand]

NVDA March buys (think it was March, maybe Feb?) taking me to heights I didn’t think I’d see for a few more years. I run projections every year and I didn’t think I’d be here until late 2027. Crazy. Not bragging at all bc it could tank tomorrow just feeling very fortunate.

Yeah - I have to check on my kid. I had him move some money around and he ended up buying on the exact worst day and a decent bit was NVDA. He should be doing really well with that.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

NVDA March buys (think it was March, maybe Feb?) taking me to heights I didn’t think I’d see for a few more years. I run projections every year and I didn’t think I’d be here until late 2027. Crazy. Not bragging at all bc it could tank tomorrow just feeling very fortunate.

Plus most of us (that didn't leave the market) are in the same boat.

I'm up 174% on a pretty large holding with NVDA (dates back to the market crash during Trump's previous admin).

 

[Schmeabs]

NVDA March buys (think it was March, maybe Feb?) taking me to heights I didn’t think I’d see for a few more years. I run projections every year and I didn’t think I’d be here until late 2027. Crazy. Not bragging at all bc it could tank tomorrow just feeling very fortunate.

Yeah those add one on dips below $100 were awesome