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Stock Thread (11 Viewers)

General Malaise said:
Harry Frogfish said:
I'm heavily in big tech, always have been, save for one now and then, like Donkey Kong, which I've been biding my time to switch out of, btw. And into Fanduel. I believe FLUT has won this race. It's Coke and Pepsi, and I liked DKNG's more dedicated mobile sports gaming/app/states appeal, but it just seems like Fanduel will end up best in show to me. I'll keep DKNG, just gonna flip like half into FLUT. The states that didn't adopt are so dumb (and I underestimated the Indian Casion lobbies). Cali, Fla, Tex are all losing tons of money to their neighbors.

Anyway, I'm here for a reveal. Had a baby, finally. And it's called BROS. Triggered at 65 today. Dipped my foot in the pool and will go deeper if the bears start eating.

So finally, I'm a proud Papa with many of the rest of you. I haven't been this excited (except I hate the timing of the overall market) since SBUX in the 90s. This thing is gonna go. They are the Disney of energy/coffee/cool drinks for kids and laugh all you want, there is a ton of money that flocks to this kind of ****.

It will be an actual trade, for me anyway. 2 to 3 years, tops. Unless the Boba hits the fan.

So yeah, LFG BROS!
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My wife just took the kids to BROS and said it was slammed with cars. It's 5pm here in Oregon and BROS was 10 deep with cars. She said it was very efficient and pleasant and I'm buying more stock tomorrow. :lmao:
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Gonna give this stock another try..

Maybe the 4th time will be the charm

😜
 
Harry Frogfish said:
Patience. This is Budweiser/Marlboro type ****, like it or not.
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I guess the difference I see is that the safety concerns have started really early. California is moving to ban sweeps and potentially DFS? When they expanded here last year, I thought more states would continue, but it seems to have slowed. The state-by-state approach to lobbying and regulation has to be a big drain of cash. I think we see some consolidation as I do not know how something like ESPNBet stays in business. And, you're right, maybe that is bullish for the big two.

I've made more off these firms using their own promos than on their stocks. Good luck.
 
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McBokonon said:
Harry Frogfish said:
That's what I was bringing up the other day. Look at all the connections tied to DKNG. Soros, Jerry Jones, Kraft and sons, NY Yankees, WWE, the Celtics owner, MSG, Wrigley, the list goes on. I would wager DKNG gets the NY online sports wagering license coming up. Their agreements with MLB, NFL, etc. are huge. I realize margins are razor thin and there are some big players jockeying for a piece of the pie, but with the gambling door open now -- and it's not closing -- who is better aligned than DKNG?
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They all have connections like that, and many entities have partnerships with multiple betting partners. Just to pick one at random, Fanduel has agreements or connections with the Associated Press (they’re using only Fanduel odds across all publications), the Ringer, Charles Barkley, the NHL, Turner Sports, Broncos, Suns, the NFL (along with DK and Caesers), Fox, etc. Similar stories for the other ones. In Arizona, all major sports teams, the TPG golf course, etc. each have their own betting partner. We’ll have something like 10 different sportsbooks to choose from.

Fanduel is building an in-person sportsbook on the first floor of the Suns’ arena in downtown Phoenix (just read this the other day which is why Fanduel is top of mind.)

This is right in the middle of Downtown Phoenix. This is a city with a metropolitan population of 5 or 6 million something like that. Not a bad advertisement.

I’m not predicting failure here. This is a growing industry, but I think the rapid growth ceiling will be here sooner than people think. And there may be some consolidation(like with DK/Nugget), but it won’t be Coke and Pepsi. Barriers to entry aren’t even in the same dimension. No worries about manufacturing, distribution, any of that. Most existing books outside of DK also have brick and mortar casinos and other revenue streams of which online sports betting is but a piece. DK will need to find more ways than DFS and betting to continue accelerated growth for years and years. Can they do something successful that’s not easily replicated by MGM, Caesar’s, Penn/Bartsool, Fanduel, William Hill, Bally’s, Wynn, etc.?

I think DKNG could make people money here in the short term for sure, but for my time horizon of holding stuff for 5-10 years, I just think there’s better options.
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Closing price for $DKNG the day of this post nearly four years ago was $54.61. It’s down to around $43 today? Dead/negative money for the entire time and the landscape is probably even worse. Again, they’re not dying, but I still don’t see the investment case here.
 
McBokonon said:
McBokonon said:
Harry Frogfish said:
That's what I was bringing up the other day. Look at all the connections tied to DKNG. Soros, Jerry Jones, Kraft and sons, NY Yankees, WWE, the Celtics owner, MSG, Wrigley, the list goes on. I would wager DKNG gets the NY online sports wagering license coming up. Their agreements with MLB, NFL, etc. are huge. I realize margins are razor thin and there are some big players jockeying for a piece of the pie, but with the gambling door open now -- and it's not closing -- who is better aligned than DKNG?
Click to expand...
They all have connections like that, and many entities have partnerships with multiple betting partners. Just to pick one at random, Fanduel has agreements or connections with the Associated Press (they’re using only Fanduel odds across all publications), the Ringer, Charles Barkley, the NHL, Turner Sports, Broncos, Suns, the NFL (along with DK and Caesers), Fox, etc. Similar stories for the other ones. In Arizona, all major sports teams, the TPG golf course, etc. each have their own betting partner. We’ll have something like 10 different sportsbooks to choose from.

Fanduel is building an in-person sportsbook on the first floor of the Suns’ arena in downtown Phoenix (just read this the other day which is why Fanduel is top of mind.)

This is right in the middle of Downtown Phoenix. This is a city with a metropolitan population of 5 or 6 million something like that. Not a bad advertisement.

I’m not predicting failure here. This is a growing industry, but I think the rapid growth ceiling will be here sooner than people think. And there may be some consolidation(like with DK/Nugget), but it won’t be Coke and Pepsi. Barriers to entry aren’t even in the same dimension. No worries about manufacturing, distribution, any of that. Most existing books outside of DK also have brick and mortar casinos and other revenue streams of which online sports betting is but a piece. DK will need to find more ways than DFS and betting to continue accelerated growth for years and years. Can they do something successful that’s not easily replicated by MGM, Caesar’s, Penn/Bartsool, Fanduel, William Hill, Bally’s, Wynn, etc.?

I think DKNG could make people money here in the short term for sure, but for my time horizon of holding stuff for 5-10 years, I just think there’s better options.
Click to expand...

Closing price for $DKNG the day of this post nearly four years ago was $54.61. It’s down to around $43 today? Dead/negative money for the entire time and the landscape is probably even worse. Again, they’re not dying, but I still don’t see the investment case here.
Click to expand...

I am not big on DKNG but it's not really fair to compare stock price to business success over that time frame as a lot of these upside stocks had way overextended and unsustainable multiples back then.

PLTR from four years ago was flat up until about May of last year, and then bang. SHOP is still down about 30% from 4 years ago even though revenue is up 500%. Heck DKNG's revenue is up 500% over that span too.

These things were way overextended back then with ATH's that would allegedly never be seen again. Yet most of them have bounced way back from the lows and once they catch a breeze they can shoot to the moon pretty fast (PLTR, CVNA, etc).
 
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FreeBaGeL said:
McBokonon said:
McBokonon said:
Harry Frogfish said:
That's what I was bringing up the other day. Look at all the connections tied to DKNG. Soros, Jerry Jones, Kraft and sons, NY Yankees, WWE, the Celtics owner, MSG, Wrigley, the list goes on. I would wager DKNG gets the NY online sports wagering license coming up. Their agreements with MLB, NFL, etc. are huge. I realize margins are razor thin and there are some big players jockeying for a piece of the pie, but with the gambling door open now -- and it's not closing -- who is better aligned than DKNG?
Click to expand...
They all have connections like that, and many entities have partnerships with multiple betting partners. Just to pick one at random, Fanduel has agreements or connections with the Associated Press (they’re using only Fanduel odds across all publications), the Ringer, Charles Barkley, the NHL, Turner Sports, Broncos, Suns, the NFL (along with DK and Caesers), Fox, etc. Similar stories for the other ones. In Arizona, all major sports teams, the TPG golf course, etc. each have their own betting partner. We’ll have something like 10 different sportsbooks to choose from.

Fanduel is building an in-person sportsbook on the first floor of the Suns’ arena in downtown Phoenix (just read this the other day which is why Fanduel is top of mind.)

This is right in the middle of Downtown Phoenix. This is a city with a metropolitan population of 5 or 6 million something like that. Not a bad advertisement.

I’m not predicting failure here. This is a growing industry, but I think the rapid growth ceiling will be here sooner than people think. And there may be some consolidation(like with DK/Nugget), but it won’t be Coke and Pepsi. Barriers to entry aren’t even in the same dimension. No worries about manufacturing, distribution, any of that. Most existing books outside of DK also have brick and mortar casinos and other revenue streams of which online sports betting is but a piece. DK will need to find more ways than DFS and betting to continue accelerated growth for years and years. Can they do something successful that’s not easily replicated by MGM, Caesar’s, Penn/Bartsool, Fanduel, William Hill, Bally’s, Wynn, etc.?

I think DKNG could make people money here in the short term for sure, but for my time horizon of holding stuff for 5-10 years, I just think there’s better options.
Click to expand...

Closing price for $DKNG the day of this post nearly four years ago was $54.61. It’s down to around $43 today? Dead/negative money for the entire time and the landscape is probably even worse. Again, they’re not dying, but I still don’t see the investment case here.
Click to expand...

I am not big on DKNG but it's not really fair to compare stock price to business success over that time frame as a lot of these upside stocks had way overextended and unsustainable multiples since then.

PLTR from four years ago was flat up until about May of last year, and then bang. SHOP is still down about 30% from 4 years ago even though revenue is up 500%. Heck DKNG's revenue is up 500% over that span too.

These things were way overextended back then with ATH's that would allegedly never be seen again. Yet most of them have bounced way back from the lows and once they catch a breeze they can shoot to the moon pretty fast (PLTR, CVNA, etc).
Click to expand...

True, but the point I was making in that post was specifically that there were much better investment ideas at that time with a 5-10 year time horizon, and the reasons I felt that way haven’t changed today. You’re not wrong, though.
 
I added some $113s in Feb that are going to get called at $155 'cause I hedged the potential downside risk with the tariffs. There are certainly worse things. They were an add to a full position anyway. I expected a full recovery from them, but kinda surprised they got back to new highs so quickly.
 
kevzilla said:
General Malaise said:
ALMTD - Tungsten. Move over Antimony. It's all Tungsten now!
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But...but...UAMY just bought some tungsten properties! :kicksrock:

Looking for an exogenous event that could bump this volatile issue from a scalping to merely a single-digit haircut. I doubt I'll have to wait all summer.
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I still like the thesis and the CEO seems to be the right driver, but I went from a four bagger to a single too damn quickly for my liking. Plus, I saw opportunity elsewhere. This thing needs a new catalyst and it needs to start hitting on their promises. "Always under promise and over deliver" wasn't the vibe I was getting from Gary.

I can always jump back in but my original cost basis - once cherry - was beginning to look like the next floor down on the elevator. No thanks.
 
Can't believe the MP (Mountain Pass) boys aren't up in here today. Stock is up 47% on the day.....

LAS VEGAS -- July 10, 2025

MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) (“MP Materials” or the “Company”) today announced it has entered into a transformational public-private partnership with the United States Department of Defense (“DoD”) to dramatically accelerate the build-out of an end-to-end U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain and reduce foreign dependency.

With a multibillion-dollar package of investments and long-term commitments from DoD, MP Materials will construct the Company’s second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the “10X Facility”) at a soon-to-be-chosen location to serve both defense and commercial customers. Once the new facility is completed, expected to begin commissioning in 2028, MP Materials’ total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity will reach an estimated 10,000 metric tons.

The Company also expects to add additional heavy rare earth separation capabilities at its Mountain Pass, California, facility, solidifying its status as a national strategic asset where high-purity rare earth materials are extracted, separated and refined all in one location.

“This initiative marks a decisive action by the Trump administration to accelerate American supply chain independence,” said James Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of MP Materials. “We are proud to enter into this transformational public-private partnership and are deeply grateful to President Trump, our partners at the Pentagon, and our employees, customers and stakeholders for their unwavering support and dedication.”

Rare earth magnets are one of the most strategically important components in advanced technology systems spanning defense and commercial applications. Yet today, the U.S. relies almost entirely on foreign sources. This strategic partnership builds on MP Materials’ operational foundation to catalyze domestic production, strengthen industrial resilience, and secure critical supply chains for high-growth industries and future dual use applications.

The agreements comprise a comprehensive, long-term package – including convertible preferred equity, warrants, loans, and price floor and offtake commitments – that extend for more than a decade.

  1. DoD has entered into a 10-year agreement establishing a price floor commitment of $110 per kilogram for MP Materials’ NdPr products stockpiled or sold, reducing vulnerability to non-market forces and ensuring stable and predictable cash flow with shared upside.
  2. For a period of 10 years following the construction of the 10X Facility, DoD has agreed to ensure that 100% of the magnets produced at the 10X Facility will be purchased by defense and commercial customers with shared upside.
  3. The Company has obtained a commitment letter from JPMorgan Chase Funding Inc. and Goldman Sachs Bank USA to provide $1.0 billion of financing for the costs of constructing and developing the 10X Facility, subject to customary terms and conditions set forth therein. In addition, within 30 days, the Company expects to receive the proceeds of a $150 million loan from DoD in connection with its plan to expand its heavy rare earth separation capabilities at Mountain Pass.
  4. As part of the agreement, DoD agreed to purchase $400 million of a newly-created series of the Company’s preferred stock convertible into shares of the Company’s common stock, and a warrant permitting DoD to purchase additional shares of the Company’s common stock. The initial conversion price and exercise price are $30.03 per share of common stock. The purchase is scheduled to close on July 11, 2025. The Company intends to use the proceeds of this investment to expand its existing rare earths separation and processing capabilities, as well as its magnet production capacity.
  5. As a result of the strategic investment, DoD is positioned to become the Company’s largest shareholder. On an as-converted and as-exercised basis, the convertible preferred stock and the warrant represent, in the aggregate, 15% of the Company’s issued and outstanding shares of common stock as of July 9, 2025, without giving effect to the issuance of such shares.
MP Materials currently operates the world’s second-largest rare earth mine in Mountain Pass, California, where it extracts, refines, and separates rare earth materials. The Company is commissioning a magnetics facility in Texas, known as Independence, which anchors its downstream capabilities.
 
McBokonon said:
General Malaise said:
Any thoughts on VRT dropping today on the news that AWS has developed (quickly) its own cooling technology? Buying in here? Selling? Where is Todem when you need him? ;)
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All the tuff I'm seeing is that what AWS is doing is not the same thing as what VRT does:

Click to expand...

I'm up 40% on this one even after today's decline. I'm going to watch it closely and if I get spooked, might sell half.

Just curious what others are thinking here with VRT. It's not my field of expertise, far from it.
 
I defenestrated the MP position. I'm acting like someone who thinks we're about to take it in the shorts. I don't believe that.

:oldunsure:
 
Berlin said:
What happened to @Todem?
I miss his posts here - big time.
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Maybe he drowned in all the profits we made off his list in April
General Malaise said:
McBokonon said:
General Malaise said:
Any thoughts on VRT dropping today on the news that AWS has developed (quickly) its own cooling technology? Buying in here? Selling? Where is Todem when you need him? ;)
Click to expand...
All the tuff I'm seeing is that what AWS is doing is not the same thing as what VRT does:

Click to expand...

I'm up 40% on this one even after today's decline. I'm going to watch it closely and if I get spooked, might sell half.

Just curious what others are thinking here with VRT. It's not my field of expertise, far from it.
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Yeah, not really sure about this company. Only have it from Todem's list.
 
General Malaise said:
kevzilla said:
General Malaise said:
Can't believe the MP (Mountain Pass) boys aren't up in here today.
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Regrettably, I have to work sometimes. Seriously considering selling it all on the news. Anybody else?
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Our firm unloaded a big chunk.....
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Thanks for the heads up. You don't go broke selling at a profit. Sold half at a 129% gain and put a trailing stop of 15% on the other half. It was only 1% of my portfolio, not life changing, but the final push over plus 50% since the low.
 
General Malaise said:
McBokonon said:
General Malaise said:
Any thoughts on VRT dropping today on the news that AWS has developed (quickly) its own cooling technology? Buying in here? Selling? Where is Todem when you need him? ;)
Click to expand...
All the tuff I'm seeing is that what AWS is doing is not the same thing as what VRT does:

Click to expand...

I'm up 40% on this one even after today's decline. I'm going to watch it closely and if I get spooked, might sell half.

Just curious what others are thinking here with VRT. It's not my field of expertise, far from it.
Click to expand...
It rebounded.
 
Todem said:
So I am checking out CRWV (Coreweave).

Fair value is at best 105 a share….thing is being ridden up hard right now.

I would wait till it has a crash….because it will.

Wait till this dips down into the low 60’s. Then pounce. I would even be comfortable long term adding shares in the low to mid 70’s.

Selling some way out of the money puts may also be a nice way to play it going out a maximum of 6 months on the expiration. I will have to check out the premiums first.

They have a huge competitive advantage right now in cloud infrastructure to provide automation and efficiency in managing complex AI infrastructure.

It’s a red hot stock (and a new issue at that as well). Great IP.

But it’s way overvalued here short term. We are gonna wait for a sale.

Be prudent with this one. It does have a narrow moat.

Best to wait for a fire sale on this one and then add it to your AI sector of your portfolio.
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Down from $185 to $138
 
Sand said:
General Malaise said:

I'll continue to bang the drum on other critical metals that aren't getting talked about as much - things like germanium, antimony and tungsten are all very critical metals for military purposes. And we don't have enough supply of these metals, so if we want to continue a strong military with the right ammo and machines and technology, we better figure this part out as well because China isn't going to play nice.
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Tungsten is a byproduct of molybdenum mining, so there we need moly deposits. I don't know if we have any, to be honest. We could use supplies of both metals.
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I bet there are a bunch of guys that would be happy to donate their Tungsten wedding bands.
 
DOJ moving stocks. Today we saw Mountain Pass scream on big news. Tomorrow, look for drone related stocks to pop.

One we like is RCAT. Red Cat Holdings. Up pretty big after hours.

There's a performative tweet from that newsguy suggesting a "Drone Surge".

We are living in very different times.
 
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