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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

D_House said:
This is a good posting. Just for kicks I went to the first two pages of the thread (from Jan 2013) and looked up tickers that were being discussed as buys.

Only two (QQQ and something called CPRX) of about fifteen tickers beat a boring S&P index fund if held until today. Five lost money. And this is in a near-continuous bull market.

Notably, there was heavy AAPL discussion - but mostly people unsure of whether to stay with it or sell, not buy. AAPL subsequently did twice as well as an S&P index. There was also someone who shorted AMZN (didn't go well).

I enjoy reading about the trades here, but I don't have the stomach for it. I'm sticking with my target date fund.
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I think there was way more day trading/gambling on long shots back then, too. There's people here who obviously still do those things but as participant numbers grow, we have a much better blend of long-termers, too. And for us (the mainly long-termers) there's WAY more information available to us than there was even 7 years ago.

That said I'm not ignoring these gains in the past year are nuts, but I'm also on record as someone who thinks we're moving through a legitimate industrial revolution. 

 
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D_House said:
This is a good posting. Just for kicks I went to the first two pages of the thread (from Jan 2013) and looked up tickers that were being discussed as buys.

Only two (QQQ and something called CPRX) of about fifteen tickers beat a boring S&P index fund if held until today. Five lost money. And this is in a near-continuous bull market.

Notably, there was heavy AAPL discussion - but mostly people unsure of whether to stay with it or sell, not buy. AAPL subsequently did twice as well as an S&P index. There was also someone who shorted AMZN (didn't go well).

I enjoy reading about the trades here, but I don't have the stomach for it. I'm sticking with my target date fund.
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I don't do the target date fund but similar simplicity for 90% of our accounts. 

My bonds holdings have fallen from 10% to like 7%, enough to make me think about upping that to 15%.

 
Lomez said:
My understanding of IIPR's business is that some (many?) of the properties they're buying are because a number of these weed companies can't use traditional financing due to the illegality of marijuana at the federal level. If banks can't/won't do business with you, how do you get the financing you need to grow your grow? Many of them own properties they're choosing to sell to IIPR to get the cash up front in order to finance operations or grow their business, and in the process they're signing long-term lease agreements with IIPR to continue using those properties.

Because those lease agreements are long-term, it's not like IIPR is going away any time soon. I'm not remotely concerned about that. But growth is a component of their run up to where they are. If the US government makes it easier to pursue traditional financing for companies residing in states where legalization has already occurred, does IIPR lose the source of that growth? Again, it's not like they're folding. And I'm sure they'll still find willing participants. But if they come fewer and further between or that puts pressure on their pricing model, then it's possible we've reached a top. 
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Got it.  Thanks for taking the time here.  :thumbup:

 
-OZ- said:
I know nothing.

But today increased my accounts by more than two months salary 🤷🏾‍♂️
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4 months for me! Heck of a day, although yesterday was down almost half of today. I think it was my biggest daily dollar gain. The 100%+ return for 2020 makes a big day in 2021 look bigger.

 
-OZ- said:
I don't do the target date fund but similar simplicity for 90% of our accounts. 

My bonds holdings have fallen from 10% to like 7%, enough to make me think about upping that to 15%.
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Bonds schmonds! Seriously though, isn’t this about as good as it gets for bond prices? I know I have some exposure in my non-self directed accounts with some target funds and the other mutual funds, but I have no desire to own bonds. I posted that article that talked about how long term treasuries had beaten the S&P back in April (when stocks were still down almost 20%) for 20 years because 20 years ago from April the market was also at a high before the dot com meltdown. Only 8 months later and the S&P with dividends was 1% better over 20 years.

If interest rates go up, bond prices go down and interest rates can’t really go down more. I think I’m at a point where I’ve got enough to weather a drop without worrying so I’m not sure I'd want to stick in bonds. I’ve got around 15 years before SS although I will happily retire myself (hoping wife keeps working closer to 10, pray for me), but even though I’m kind of close it’s still 5+ years before I’m even remotely in that boat.

I’d be genuinely interested in a compelling argument telling me I’m wrong, not just a standard increase bonds when you get closer to retirement.

 
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stbugs said:
Bonds schmonds! Seriously though, isn’t this about as good as it gets for bond prices? I know I have some exposure in my non-self directed accounts with some target funds and the other mutual funds, but I have no desire to own bonds. I posted that article that talked about how long term treasuries had beaten the S&P back in April (when stocks were still down almost 20%) for 20 years because 20 years ago from April the market was also at a high before the dot com meltdown. Only 8 months later and the S&P with dividends was 1% better over 20 years.

If interest rates go up, bond prices go down and interest rates can’t really go down more. I think I’m at a point where I’ve got enough to weather a drop without worrying so I’m not sure I'd want to stick in bonds. I’ve got around 15 years before SS although I will happily retire myself (hoping wife keeps working closer to 10, pray for me), but even though I’m kind of close it’s still 5+ years before I’m even remotely in that boat.

I’d be interested in a compelling argument telling me I’m wrong, not just a standard increase bonds when you get closer to retirement.
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I'm just looking for a way to lock in gains without going to cash.

I agree with most of your points though.

 
Lomez said:
My understanding of IIPR's business is that some (many?) of the properties they're buying are because a number of these weed companies can't use traditional financing due to the illegality of marijuana at the federal level. If banks can't/won't do business with you, how do you get the financing you need to grow your grow? Many of them own properties they're choosing to sell to IIPR to get the cash up front in order to finance operations or grow their business, and in the process they're signing long-term lease agreements with IIPR to continue using those properties.

Because those lease agreements are long-term, it's not like IIPR is going away any time soon. I'm not remotely concerned about that. But growth is a component of their run up to where they are. If the US government makes it easier to pursue traditional financing for companies residing in states where legalization has already occurred, does IIPR lose the source of that growth? Again, it's not like they're folding. And I'm sure they'll still find willing participants. But if they come fewer and further between or that puts pressure on their pricing model, then it's possible we've reached a top. 
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Funny you said that, just got off the phone with a guy who owns a few successful dispensaries here in Colorado.  He said he was celebrating the Georgia Senate election results last night (guess how a guy that owns a dispensary celebrates?), main reason is that he expects new federal laws in place soon "so he can actually talk to banks and secure some traditional loans to help him expand a few more stores...  and to be able to open a checking account like all other businesses."

 
Buttonhook said:
Funny you said that, just got off the phone with a guy who owns a few successful dispensaries here in Colorado.  He said he was celebrating the Georgia Senate election results last night (guess how a guy that owns a dispensary celebrates?), main reason is that he expects new federal laws in place soon "so he can actually talk to banks and secure some traditional loans to help him expand a few more stores...  and to be able to open a checking account like all other businesses."
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I'm looking forward to legalizing federally. 

Mostly so I can invest. (Perhaps also partake)

 
stbugs said:
Lol, don’t you want to retire in Hilton Head? Poor my ###! Compounding is a helluva drug. One year ago I’d have needed almost an 8% up day to equal the dollars gained today.
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Nah, that was a plan at one point. Now we're probably going to retire on the Tennessee river and travel. Renting beach homes in the off season anywhere we want. 

 
-OZ- said:
I'm just looking for a way to lock in gains without going to cash.

I agree with most of your points though.
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I gotcha, just don’t know bonds all that well. Pretty sure bond funds can go down and do when interest rates go up unless you hold the bond itself to maturity like treasury bonds.

I do miss my GE money market fund that I had after working there for a couple years after college. Held my house sale gains for  a handful of months while our current house was being build. Those 5%+ interest rates back in the 90s and 00s don’t exist anymore. I think I made almost $2k in interest every month. I wish I was smarter and put that money to work and got a 1 year arm. Probably would have made more than enough to pay off the mortgage and a dream retirement home by now.  :kicksrock:

 
-OZ- said:
Nah, that was a plan at one point. Now we're probably going to retire on the Tennessee river and travel. Renting beach homes in the off season anywhere we want. 
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Yeah, I just hope my investments stay ahead of house prices. Damn it if the nice lake homes I’ve been looking at haven’t gone up a ton due to CV-19. Will have to wait a bit till that settles down.

 
General Malaise said:
Got it.  Thanks for taking the time here.  :thumbup:
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Yeah, that was really interesting. That stock was on my watch list and changes in the Federal laws would be a huge problem as I’m sure it’s getting a nice premium from people who can’t go elsewhere. Now they can and not pay a premium.

 
stbugs said:
Yeah, that was really interesting. That stock was on my watch list and changes in the Federal laws would be a huge problem as I’m sure it’s getting a nice premium from people who can’t go elsewhere. Now they can and not pay a premium.
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I have no idea how it will play out. That's just how I'm analyzing the situation based on two completely separate sets of information. There might be something out there by a reputable source telling you why I'm wrong and a moron. I haven't looked, and I'm not sure I'm selling. But my cost basis is quite low, so I have some cushion to wait and see how things develop.

 
$SRPT missed on their primary endpoint for their Muscular Dystrophy treatment, halted after hours (yeesh, never mind, now down 52%)

I don't own any biotechs and generally don't, but this could cause the XBI to fall and bring some biotechs with it as collateral damage if you're looking for a pullback in anything.

 
-OZ- said:
I don't do the target date fund but similar simplicity for 90% of our accounts. 

My bonds holdings have fallen from 10% to like 7%, enough to make me think about upping that to 15%.
Click to expand...


-OZ- said:
I'm just looking for a way to lock in gains without going to cash.

I agree with most of your points though.
Click to expand...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/10-year-yield-rises-above-1percent-ways-to-play-the-bond-move.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/jim-cramers-9-dividend-stocks-with-potential-market-upside.html

Personally I would be looking for reliable dividend producing stocks that will yield more than bonds.

 
Buttonhook said:
Funny you said that, just got off the phone with a guy who owns a few successful dispensaries here in Colorado.  He said he was celebrating the Georgia Senate election results last night (guess how a guy that owns a dispensary celebrates?), main reason is that he expects new federal laws in place soon "so he can actually talk to banks and secure some traditional loans to help him expand a few more stores...  and to be able to open a checking account like all other businesses."
Click to expand...
I'm currently working with dispensaries in the Portland market, and amazed that we still don't have banking infrastructure for this industry that is blowing up. I understand why we don't, but still. How do you expect me to sling your product if we can't process payment by check. Really?

 
Desert_Power said:
Which lake are you targeting? 
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Haven’t finalized anything but I have looked at Keeowee and Hartwell, which was because some homes in that area were actually on Hartwell. Hartwell is cheaper than Keowee. Jocassee looked nice but every home was ridiculous because there’s only like 40 homes on it. Might be a good lake for a little fishing.

Other lakes in Tennessee and Alabama but just looking on Zillow so far and nan the prices have jumped since the summer.

I think it was Kiplinger that had an article on best states to retire and SC was at the top with taxes for retirees. Tennessee was 10th, SC 7th and nothing else in the Southeast.

 
not yuge numbers but a ceo bought $0.02+5,000,000 for BSPK    CBD company

Bespoke Extracts, Inc. is engaged in developing of natural cannabidiol (CBD) products in the form of tinctures, capsules and pastilles for the nutraceutical and veterinary markets. It extracts all CBD products for adults, children, and pets. It offers a range of products, such as CBD lemon-lime sport tincture, CBD manuka honey tincture, CBD bacon flavored pet tincture, CBD softgel capsules, CBD pain relief cream, and CBD isolate powder. The Company's retail line of premium CBD extracts comes in the form of tinctures including all natural, pure hemp-derived CBD extract with raw manuka honey and all-natural, pure hemp-derived CBD extract for pets with bacon flavoring. CBD, one of the more powerful compounds in the hemp plant, binds to this system helping humans.

 
McBokonon said:
Roblox doing a direct listing instead of an IPO now. If they come out like Palantir, meaning a reasonable price, I might have to back up the truck.
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Very interested in ROBLOX

 
What a day today.  I would of had a great week except Monday and Tuesday afternoon killed me.  Then today the drop in BTC put a little damper but MARA and RIOT recovered nicely.  Only dog in the show was SOS.

Had a great day today with FTFT MARA RIOT

DMGGF is continuing its run

CLSK so grateful for this board on that pick.

LI had positive news today pushing it to 35.

Looking forward to tomorrow may have to wait and see how MARA and RIOT react to the BTC price drop tonight.  Hopefully it recovers in the AM

 
McBokonon said:
I think there was way more day trading/gambling on long shots back then, too. There's people here who obviously still do those things but as participant numbers grow, we have a much better blend of long-termers, too. And for us (the mainly long-termers) there's WAY more information available to us than there was even 7 years ago.

That said I'm not ignoring these gains in the past year are nuts, but I'm also on record as someone who thinks we're moving through a legitimate industrial revolution. 
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We were alot younger (and dumber in my case) back then too.

 
Todem said:
Congratulations!!! That is great for your son. 

Yeah Ivy’s do not offer scholarships. Hence why they do not compete in football, basketball or even baseball. They are all about the education and the money LOL. 

It will be interesting what path my son wants to pursue. When he visits a D1 school he may want that lifestyle and say screw it I can walk on and tryout and hopefully get a recommendation from some of my various coaches. Or he goes to some D2 campus’s and feels comfortable and wants to actually play. I told him....it comes to if it is about the love of the hat or the love of the game. He has a passion for the game so I am already preparing for a D2 tuition bill. Hopefully he keeps his grades at this high level (I am sure he will) and get’s academic money (which is very attainable for him in Florida D2 schools). Time will tell.
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Gainesville I hear has a good Baseball program 😀 and the social life even during Covid is pretty strong according to my son.  We joined him pre-covid for the UF/Auburn game and the girls were at another level compared to my alma mater. 

 
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