SproutDaddy
Footballguy
So he has 2 broken ribs?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
TE Travis Kelce, KC (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bucky86
- Start date
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
Looks a lot like Greg Olsen of last week.
Maybe Waldman can declare him a season long bust in this week's gut check.
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
Oops!! Did I speak too soon?
imjackdupp
Footballguy
Much different game than last week but overall it could have been worse. If it weren't for that last catch the doomsday guys will be dropping him for O'Shaughnessy.
This game was a good reminder that you can't be Baby Gronk when you have Infant Brady throwing you the ball. Kelce is going to have games like this because Smith is going to have games like this.
That said, Denver is a really good defense, so I can't hold this game against Smith too much.
That said, Denver is a really good defense, so I can't hold this game against Smith too much.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Welcome to the world of Andy Reid.
gethugefast1
Footballguy
Tony Gonzo pregame Kelce man-crush was awkward 
Faust
MVP
Travis Kelce's TD punch inspired by Donkey Kong in 'Super Smash Bros.'
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25306286/travis-kelces-td-punch-inspired-by-donkey-kong-in-super-smash-bros
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25306286/travis-kelces-td-punch-inspired-by-donkey-kong-in-super-smash-bros
Faust
MVP
LOOK: Chiefs' Kelce shows up at TNF with sleeveless flannel shirt
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25306370/look-chiefs-te-kelce-shows-up-at-tnf-with-sleeveless-flannel-shirt-entourage
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25306370/look-chiefs-te-kelce-shows-up-at-tnf-with-sleeveless-flannel-shirt-entourage
solorca
Footballguy
Gronk had a game very similar to this in week two last year. It happens. A 4/59 statline isn't exciting, but it's nothing to panic about with a TE.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Catches every target. Needs more targets!
Burying your head in the sand and pretending a guy making a play is the same as busted coverage is stupid. Recognizing when a busted play has inflated a guy's value is smart. Busted plays happen and they're nice, but they're also rare. When a guy has hype and he gets a busted play week 1, it's time to capitalize.So...no other teams will ever have that.Nope. Nope. Nope. You missed what I wrote. The key is "busted coverage". Abdullah made a play. Kelce made a play to score his other TD. The big one, however, was the result of busted coverage. Most people, like you, don't realize it. So that's why it's a great time to capitalize.
Point is...things like that happen.
And the guy has shown in the past to be able to make plays as well.
Taking away things is stupid and a fools errand in FF.
Nobody can predict exact numbers, but historical numbers help give an idea. I mean, there was a report that Reid limited Kelce's snaps early last year due to the microfracture surgery, but if you look at his splits, his targets (42 vs. 45) were basically identical in each half of the season despite Kelce being very productive during the first 8 games (strangely, he only scored 1 TD off those 45 targets). And looking at the past two years, there aren't going to be a ton of passes to go around and a lot of them are going to the RBs. Add to this the fact that Reid brought in the guy he himself drafted in the first round while in Philly and you have to be concerned about Kelce's chances of topping 100 targets on the year. So far Maclin has led the team in targets both games.
As to what I'd have done if I had spent a 5th round pick on Kelce and wanted to cash in? Yeah, I'd have pursued Eifert (not ASJ, tho). Perhaps his owner will think it was a fluke and would throw in an extra player for the hyped up Kelce. Personally, Eifert was the guy I targeted in every league. If not Eifert, then maybe try to get Olsen. Or try to improve at another position and use my backup (Vernon Davis, Heath Miller). I think Vernon will get around the same number of targets as Kelce this season and he's even more athletic. I'm not saying they'll score the same, but the points drop off would be more than offset by the player you got in return for Kelce if you do it right.
RUSF18
Footballguy
You're so far off on this, it's crazy.Burying your head in the sand and pretending a guy making a play is the same as busted coverage is stupid. Recognizing when a busted play has inflated a guy's value is smart. Busted plays happen and they're nice, but they're also rare. When a guy has hype and he gets a busted play week 1, it's time to capitalize.So...no other teams will ever have that.
Point is...things like that happen.
And the guy has shown in the past to be able to make plays as well.
Taking away things is stupid and a fools errand in FF.
If you're acquiring a player or holding on to them because you casually saw in in the box score that he put up 100 yards and a TD, but his 75 yard TD came on a busted play and it was only 1 of 3 receptions in the game, yes, you're burying your head in the sand and not doing enough work for your roster.
But if outside of that 75 yard TD on a busted play, he also put up 5 for 60 and a TD, that isn't a fluke. It's a good player who also benefited from a random play.
You could have made plenty of reasonable arguments why people should pump the breaks on anointing Kelce as the next Gronk. You just chose the absolute worst one because, I don't know, you happened to see a busted play take place and wanted to make sure we all knew how observant you are? Congratulations, your vision is spectacular.
You are actually missing my main point which is that Kelce will be lucky to break 100 targets. He was overvalued before the draft, so that busted play just gave you guys an out. The busted play is merely a secondary point to the main point. If you want to focus on that, go for it, but that's not the important part. It is hard to score points if you don't get targets. He'll have a few 5-60-1 games, but a lot of 3-40-0 games, too. Just not enough targets to be worth a TE3 price when guys who will get 90+ targets were available much, much, much later.You're so far off on this, it's crazy.Burying your head in the sand and pretending a guy making a play is the same as busted coverage is stupid. Recognizing when a busted play has inflated a guy's value is smart. Busted plays happen and they're nice, but they're also rare. When a guy has hype and he gets a busted play week 1, it's time to capitalize.So...no other teams will ever have that.
Point is...things like that happen.
And the guy has shown in the past to be able to make plays as well.
Taking away things is stupid and a fools errand in FF.
If you're acquiring a player or holding on to them because you casually saw in in the box score that he put up 100 yards and a TD, but his 75 yard TD came on a busted play and it was only 1 of 3 receptions in the game, yes, you're burying your head in the sand and not doing enough work for your roster.
But if outside of that 75 yard TD on a busted play, he also put up 5 for 60 and a TD, that isn't a fluke. It's a good player who also benefited from a random play.
You could have made plenty of reasonable arguments why people should pump the breaks on anointing Kelce as the next Gronk. You just chose the absolute worst one because, I don't know, you happened to see a busted play take place and wanted to make sure we all knew how observant you are? Congratulations, your vision is spectacular.
matttyl
Footballguy
Lets say that it is in fact his lowest yardage output - and he plays a full 16 games. If both are true, he's a lock for 1,000 yards this year. Only 2 TEs did that last year.
I understand your point. Unfortunately, that is these threads and people take any discussion as a slight. He is a solid TE, will likely finish as TE2 or in a tier of a few guys under the Gronk tier. That doesn't mean that he isn't a great TE, but I agree that busted coverage plays won't happen every game and might not happen again. I think after week 1, Kelce is now going to get a lot more attention, so I think busted coverage (same as Gronk, although he probably gets a target there anyway, so that TD wasn't unlikely for him) will be even more rare.You are actually missing my main point which is that Kelce will be lucky to break 100 targets. He was overvalued before the draft, so that busted play just gave you guys an out. The busted play is merely a secondary point to the main point. If you want to focus on that, go for it, but that's not the important part. It is hard to score points if you don't get targets. He'll have a few 5-60-1 games, but a lot of 3-40-0 games, too. Just not enough targets to be worth a TE3 price when guys who will get 90+ targets were available much, much, much later.You're so far off on this, it's crazy.Burying your head in the sand and pretending a guy making a play is the same as busted coverage is stupid. Recognizing when a busted play has inflated a guy's value is smart. Busted plays happen and they're nice, but they're also rare. When a guy has hype and he gets a busted play week 1, it's time to capitalize.So...no other teams will ever have that.
Point is...things like that happen.
And the guy has shown in the past to be able to make plays as well.
Taking away things is stupid and a fools errand in FF.
If you're acquiring a player or holding on to them because you casually saw in in the box score that he put up 100 yards and a TD, but his 75 yard TD came on a busted play and it was only 1 of 3 receptions in the game, yes, you're burying your head in the sand and not doing enough work for your roster.
But if outside of that 75 yard TD on a busted play, he also put up 5 for 60 and a TD, that isn't a fluke. It's a good player who also benefited from a random play.
You could have made plenty of reasonable arguments why people should pump the breaks on anointing Kelce as the next Gronk. You just chose the absolute worst one because, I don't know, you happened to see a busted play take place and wanted to make sure we all knew how observant you are? Congratulations, your vision is spectacular.
Last edited by a moderator:
3nOut
Footballguy
any TE. Are you really expecting him to score a TD every week? That's a minimum of 17 for the year, which is not sustainable. If you were told he would average 1 TD per week, what would you have said? Well, that's what he's averaging now. There will be more games like this, which has to be acceptable.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
I was troubled by the lack of targets in the 1st half last night but the bigger picture looks good for Kelce to me.
In a game where the Chiefs had 4 turnovers, went 0-7 on 3rd downs, lost an offensive possession to a defensive TD, A. Smith and A. Reid did not have good nights, and they played a very good defense Kelce was still the leading receiver on the team and didnt kill you last night in PPR.
The targets issue is one to keep an eye on but as was pointed out already in this thread, Gates was the #2 TE last year with just 6 targets a game. People love to talk about justifying draft position after the fact but this is not a dissertation and draft position is irrelevant once the season starts. Kelce owners need fantasy points from him and as it stands right now I still like his chances of producing as many or more FF points than any TE not named Gronk.
In a game where the Chiefs had 4 turnovers, went 0-7 on 3rd downs, lost an offensive possession to a defensive TD, A. Smith and A. Reid did not have good nights, and they played a very good defense Kelce was still the leading receiver on the team and didnt kill you last night in PPR.
The targets issue is one to keep an eye on but as was pointed out already in this thread, Gates was the #2 TE last year with just 6 targets a game. People love to talk about justifying draft position after the fact but this is not a dissertation and draft position is irrelevant once the season starts. Kelce owners need fantasy points from him and as it stands right now I still like his chances of producing as many or more FF points than any TE not named Gronk.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
No complaints.
How did he do it? 12 TDs. Would love to see the list of guys to grab 12 TDs on less than 100 targets. I expect that list is less than or equal to 5 individual seasons. But it helps when your QB is Rivers, who has thrown for over 30 TDs on many occasions (he's averaged 30 TDs the past 7 years). Alex Smith has cracked 20 once (23).VaTerp said:
As someone else said, Kelce is an underutilized stud.
matttyl
Footballguy
Just in the last 6 seasons (TEs bolded) as targets weren't tallied prior to that....
Julius Thomas '14
Antonio Gates '14
Vernon Davis '13
Julius Thomas '13
James Jones '12
Jordy Nelson '11
V Shank '09
Lower the bar to 10 TDs and you get....
Torrey Smith '14
J Catch '13
Marvin Jones '13
Rob Gronk '12
L Robinson '11
Antonio Gates '10
Gronk '10
M Lewis '10
Mike Wallace '10
It happens.
Last edited by a moderator:
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
This. They played a Top 5-ish D with probably the best pass rush in the NFL. Smith was pressured all night. Kelce led all Chiefs in receiving yards last night.VaTerp said:
matttyl
Footballguy
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I still am not fully grasping how you are SO sure on the targets thing? In the 2 games so far, he took advantage in week one catching 6 of 6 targets. In the second half, they were in clock chewing mode trying to hold off a Texans comeback. Tossing to your TE who is rampaging through an opponents secondary in that scenario doesn't generally happen. Last night as has been pointed out, he suffered somewhat from 4 turnovers and losing an offensive possession after a defensive touchdown which gave the ball back to the Broncos, plus the opponent has a fierce pass rush too so there was blocking to be done.FF Ninja said:Burying your head in the sand and pretending a guy making a play is the same as busted coverage is stupid. Recognizing when a busted play has inflated a guy's value is smart. Busted plays happen and they're nice, but they're also rare. When a guy has hype and he gets a busted play week 1, it's time to capitalize.So...no other teams will ever have that.
Point is...things like that happen.
And the guy has shown in the past to be able to make plays as well.
Taking away things is stupid and a fools errand in FF.
Nobody can predict exact numbers, but historical numbers help give an idea. I mean, there was a report that Reid limited Kelce's snaps early last year due to the microfracture surgery, but if you look at his splits, his targets (42 vs. 45) were basically identical in each half of the season despite Kelce being very productive during the first 8 games (strangely, he only scored 1 TD off those 45 targets). And looking at the past two years, there aren't going to be a ton of passes to go around and a lot of them are going to the RBs. Add to this the fact that Reid brought in the guy he himself drafted in the first round while in Philly and you have to be concerned about Kelce's chances of topping 100 targets on the year. So far Maclin has led the team in targets both games.
As to what I'd have done if I had spent a 5th round pick on Kelce and wanted to cash in? Yeah, I'd have pursued Eifert (not ASJ, tho). Perhaps his owner will think it was a fluke and would throw in an extra player for the hyped up Kelce. Personally, Eifert was the guy I targeted in every league. If not Eifert, then maybe try to get Olsen. Or try to improve at another position and use my backup (Vernon Davis, Heath Miller). I think Vernon will get around the same number of targets as Kelce this season and he's even more athletic. I'm not saying they'll score the same, but the points drop off would be more than offset by the player you got in return for Kelce if you do it right.
Yes, it was a bit of a dud compared to week one but not unexpected and was against tough opponents and a game situation that really didn't favor him too much. I think we revisit mid-season and see what's what as far as targets go, to me they're far too game-dependent to be certain either way and offenses can change year to year so basing on last year isn't 100% solid either.
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
On pace for 80 catches, 1300 yards and 16 TDs
cubbie5150
Footballguy
I didn't delude myself into thinking Kelce would be a target monster in this offense, not by a long shot. 11 targets through 2 games, however, does have me concerned. I'll happily take his production to date, but there are likely tough times ahead once the catch rate normalizes.
Faust
MVP
Von Miller tweets at Travis Kelce, calls him 'fake Gronk'
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25307029/von-miller-tweets-at-travis-kelce-calls-him-fake-gronk
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25307029/von-miller-tweets-at-travis-kelce-calls-him-fake-gronk
Ilov80s
Footballguy
metoo
Footballguy
You both pulled it from DirecTV.
I like Miller calling him fake Gronk head a$$ and slamming him to the ground. Boss move.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
thecardiackid
Footballguy
.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Did he get suspended last year or the year before 4 games for using a banned substance?
Buffaloes
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
.Evan Silva @evansilva 2h2 hours ago
#Chiefs Travis Kelce is 14th among TEs in targets through 2 weeks. He's 1st in catch rate, 2nd in yds, 3rd in TDs & 2nd in yds after catch.
#Chiefs Travis Kelce is 14th among TEs in targets through 2 weeks. He's 1st in catch rate, 2nd in yds, 3rd in TDs & 2nd in yds after catch.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Won't matter. Andy will always spend targets on 3rd string TE's & 4th string WR's.someone retweet that @AndyReid
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Last week's loss stung and had to leave a mark.Won't matter. Andy will always spend targets on 3rd string TE's & 4th string WR's.someone retweet that @AndyReid
Andy has a history of stubbornly putting on blinders during a game and sticking to his script.
Its been a longer stretch between games and he's heard a lot of criticism.
Some may have sunk in so here's hoping he'll figure it out and use the 'Flying Burrito' more than he did last game.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Similar threads
