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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (2 Viewers)

Lets take Henry Ellard for example. He is an elite small WR. You can only hope Watkins has a career like Ellards right? He is 10th on the all time receiving yards list. He average a little over 4 rec TD's a year.

Now lets take the big WR who is number 9 on the all time list right above Ellard. 6'3 Cris Carter. He played one more season then Ellard but he had 65 more TD's. That's not a typo he average twice as many Rec TDs as Ellard.
Couple things here 1) Cris Carter as good as anyone to ever live at catching TDs and 2) Henry Ellard was 5'11" (at some point height matters but I dont' think Watkins is below the cut off)

Another point would be, that in some leagues, players don't have to be TD machines to be WR1s. If you lead the league in yards, you probably are a WR1 in most leagues. Well at least in my league that would be the case.

 
6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol.
6-1 and shorter WR's in the top 15 all-time in receiving yards:

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Henry Ellard

Reggie Wayne

Torrey Holt

Steve Largent

Irving Fryar
That's about right. You need to take Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne off the list. No way they are on that list with out playing with Manning. Now how many TD's did these guys average per year? Minus Wayne and Harrison of course.

Basically 2/3rds of the WR on the top 15 all-time receiving list are over 6-1. Then when you factor in TD's you see why rating WR under 6'1 as elite prospects is a bad idea.
You shouldn't take people off the list without adding to the list all the WRs under 6-1 who had terrible QB situations. No need to cherry pick. The list is the list.
lol yeah Harrison would have caught 128 TD without manning no problem. Thumbs up. Same with Wayne.

If you want to draft 6'0 WR. Go for it. It's significantly less likely they'll be elite. Doesn't mean it can't happen but people need to factor that in when they are valuing a small WR like Watkins.
We have different viewpoints. Why do you care THIS much that he isn't elite? Did you trade him away or something? Or maybe you just don't like anyone smaller than 6'2"? Did you hate Percy Harvin and Steve Smith too? What about Wes Welker?

Watkins is practically 6'1" btw. We are talking 1/8 of an inch I believe.
I do favor big WR and Watkins is not a big WR. Add in his non-elite athletic traits and I don't understand the love. I mean a bigger Percy Harvin? Nope.

Steve Smith is awesome btw. He still doesn't prove that a trend exists.

 
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Lets take Henry Ellard for example. He is an elite small WR. You can only hope Watkins has a career like Ellards right? He is 10th on the all time receiving yards list. He average a little over 4 rec TD's a year.

Now lets take the big WR who is number 9 on the all time list right above Ellard. 6'3 Cris Carter. He played one more season then Ellard but he had 65 more TD's. That's not a typo he average twice as many Rec TDs as Ellard.
Couple things here 1) Cris Carter as good as anyone to ever live at catching TDs and 2) Henry Ellard was 5'11" (at some point height matters but I dont' think Watkins is below the cut off)

Another point would be, that in some leagues, players don't have to be TD machines to be WR1s. If you lead the league in yards, you probably are a WR1 in most leagues. Well at least in my league that would be the case.
Well I tried to take the guy that was right next to Ellard. lol Sorry he was a 6'3 monster.

 
Receivers 6-1 and under in the top 22 receiving TD's all time (59%):

Harrison

Brown

Largent

Hutson

Bruce

Maynard

Alworth

Ward

Warfield

Rison

McDonald

Fryar

Clayton

Also, the NFL all time leader is a whopping 1 inch taller than Watkins.

 
NFL Network’s Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this year’s draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

“He’s one of the best wide receivers I’ve seen on tape in the last 10 years,” Mayock said. “Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all he’s going to do is catch the football, and if he doesn’t get hurt he’s a Top 10 pick.”

------------------------------------------------------------

[SIZE=1em]NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah says Watkins is the best receiver in the class and a Top 5 player overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins has dynamic speed and is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. He is explosive in his release, runs crisp routes, and attacks the ball in the air. He can high-point in traffic as well as track the ball over his shoulder. After the catch, he is very elusive, has the strength to pull through tackles and the burst to run away from defenders. He has all of the tools to be a No. 1 wide receiver[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]------------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]Mel Kiper Jr., from ESPN.com also has Watkins as the best receiver in the class.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins plays bigger than he measures, runs bigger than his listed size and has always had explosive speed. He fights through contact to make plays on the ball, and once he has it, he's devastating after the catch. Watkins blends polish with a high level of explosiveness and can turn catches on the edges or between the hashes into big plays. He accelerates with ease and displays top-end speed combined with the willingness to power through tackles. He also does a good job of working back to the ball to become a big factor when plays break down"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]-------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]Rob Rang of CBSSports.com says it’s possible that Watkins becomes the next wide receiver to be drafted in the Top 5.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins doesn't have the elite size that helped A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson earn top-six selections since 2007, but he does have virtually everything else -- including instant acceleration, impressive body control and the natural hands to pluck the ball outside of his frame. Watkins could go as high as No. 2 to the St. Louis Rams."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

 
NFL Network’s Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this year’s draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

“He’s one of the best wide receivers I’ve seen on tape in the last 10 years,” Mayock said. “Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all he’s going to do is catch the football, and if he doesn’t get hurt he’s a Top 10 pick.”

------------------------------------------------------------

[SIZE=1em]NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah says Watkins is the best receiver in the class and a Top 5 player overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins has dynamic speed and is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. He is explosive in his release, runs crisp routes, and attacks the ball in the air. He can high-point in traffic as well as track the ball over his shoulder. After the catch, he is very elusive, has the strength to pull through tackles and the burst to run away from defenders. He has all of the tools to be a No. 1 wide receiver[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]------------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]Mel Kiper Jr., from ESPN.com also has Watkins as the best receiver in the class.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins plays bigger than he measures, runs bigger than his listed size and has always had explosive speed. He fights through contact to make plays on the ball, and once he has it, he's devastating after the catch. Watkins blends polish with a high level of explosiveness and can turn catches on the edges or between the hashes into big plays. He accelerates with ease and displays top-end speed combined with the willingness to power through tackles. He also does a good job of working back to the ball to become a big factor when plays break down"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]-------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]Rob Rang of CBSSports.com says it’s possible that Watkins becomes the next wide receiver to be drafted in the Top 5.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins doesn't have the elite size that helped A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson earn top-six selections since 2007, but he does have virtually everything else -- including instant acceleration, impressive body control and the natural hands to pluck the ball outside of his frame. Watkins could go as high as No. 2 to the St. Louis Rams."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]
lol I stopped reading at "because his combine was so good"

 
6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol.
6-1 and shorter WR's in the top 15 all-time in receiving yards:

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Henry Ellard

Reggie Wayne

Torrey Holt

Steve Largent

Irving Fryar
That's about right. You need to take Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne off the list. No way they are on that list with out playing with Manning. Now how many TD's did these guys average per year? Minus Wayne and Harrison of course.

Basically 2/3rds of the WR on the top 15 all-time receiving list are over 6-1. Then when you factor in TD's you see why rating WR under 6'1 as elite prospects is a bad idea.
You shouldn't take people off the list without adding to the list all the WRs under 6-1 who had terrible QB situations. No need to cherry pick. The list is the list.
lol yeah Harrison would have caught 128 TD without manning no problem. Thumbs up. Same with Wayne.

If you want to draft 6'0 WR. Go for it. It's significantly less likely they'll be elite. Doesn't mean it can't happen but people need to factor that in when they are valuing a small WR like Watkins.
I'm not a mathematician, but pretty sure 8/15 is not 1/3. How are you coming up with 7/15 being 2/3?

In 2012, with a QB other than Manning, Wayne had 106-1,355-5, the second most receptions and tied-second in yards. That was at the age of 34. So the theory that we need to "take Harrison and Wayne off the list" doesn't hold up. Do we take everybody off the list if they had a good QB? Why? Just to prove a point about WRs only being "really good" unless they are 6'5" 240 lbs?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WaynRe00.htm

If Watkins is "small", what is "average", 6'2"-6'3" and 215-220 lbs?

There aren't elite WRs in every draft, so if you take a WR, a team has to restrict themselves to who is actually there. Do you take a stiff like Bemjamin over Watkins just because he is bigger? Some have compared Evans to the top half dozen WRs. While he has the size of some of them, he falls short on speed or some other trait/s. He isn't Calvin, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Dez, Gordon, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, etc.

*Excerpt from an article about Clemson's pro day.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/06/clemson-pro-day-wont-hurt-sammy-watkins-or-help-tajh-boyd/

"NFL Network’s Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this year’s draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

“He’s one of the best wide receivers I’ve seen on tape in the last 10 years,” Mayock said. “Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all he’s going to do is catch the football, and if he doesn’t get hurt he’s a Top 10 pick.”

** EBF in this thread... I think the VJ is within a half inch of what A.J. Green did, so doesn't need to be a deathblow-type measureable.

"He came in way heavier than expected at the combine and that was the big surprise to me. He is massive for his height. Right near the top of the WR range. Here are relevant combine numbers from other WRs in the 28+ BMI range:

NAME - BMI / 40 / BROAD JUMP / VERTICAL

Sammy Watkins - 28.1 / 4.43 / 10'5" / 34"

Andre Johnson - 29.5 / 4.41 / 10'9" / 41"

Vincent Jackson - 28.8 / 4.46 / 10'9" / 39"

Dez Bryant - 28.8 / 4.52 / 11'0" / 38"

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 / 4.35 / 11'7" / 42.5"

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2 / 4.48 / ?? / ??

Victor Cruz - 28.2 / 4.47 / 10'5" / 41.5"

Watkins has one of the best 40 times among elite players from this size range. Only Calvin and Andre were faster. So I think it's fair to say that his speed is freakish for his size."

 
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That list is an argument for longevity more than anything.
Right. It is hard to make statistical All Time leader lists in any metric playing just a few years. It isn't obvious why so many 6'1" and under WRs played at a high level longer than bigger WRs, if the premise that bigger WRs are far more likely to be elite is true.

To the thread, there are a few ways to look at the last sentence. It is one thing to look years after the fact and say, this cluster of elite WRs is big. But that isn't how it works in the NFL draft and fantasy drafts. You don't get to draft years later with hindsight. So if we are talking about drafting without foreknowledge, is it true that "big WRs" bust less than "average" size WRs (some continue to call Watkins "small", but he is at least average)?

 
NFL Network’s Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this year’s draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

“He’s one of the best wide receivers I’ve seen on tape in the last 10 years,” Mayock said. “Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all he’s going to do is catch the football, and if he doesn’t get hurt he’s a Top 10 pick.”

------------------------------------------------------------

[SIZE=1em]NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah says Watkins is the best receiver in the class and a Top 5 player overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins has dynamic speed and is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. He is explosive in his release, runs crisp routes, and attacks the ball in the air. He can high-point in traffic as well as track the ball over his shoulder. After the catch, he is very elusive, has the strength to pull through tackles and the burst to run away from defenders. He has all of the tools to be a No. 1 wide receiver[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]------------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]Mel Kiper Jr., from ESPN.com also has Watkins as the best receiver in the class.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins plays bigger than he measures, runs bigger than his listed size and has always had explosive speed. He fights through contact to make plays on the ball, and once he has it, he's devastating after the catch. Watkins blends polish with a high level of explosiveness and can turn catches on the edges or between the hashes into big plays. He accelerates with ease and displays top-end speed combined with the willingness to power through tackles. He also does a good job of working back to the ball to become a big factor when plays break down"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]-------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]Rob Rang of CBSSports.com says it’s possible that Watkins becomes the next wide receiver to be drafted in the Top 5.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins doesn't have the elite size that helped A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson earn top-six selections since 2007, but he does have virtually everything else -- including instant acceleration, impressive body control and the natural hands to pluck the ball outside of his frame. Watkins could go as high as No. 2 to the St. Louis Rams."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]
lol I stopped reading at "because his combine was so good"
LOL says the arm chair GM who is focused soley on measureables.

It is being reported by the best in the business that not only was his combine good (remember the players do drills as well), but his tape proves he is one of the best WR's to come out in the last while.

I will trust Mayock and Cossell more than your view point.

 
6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol.
6-1 and shorter WR's in the top 15 all-time in receiving yards:

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Henry Ellard

Reggie Wayne

Torrey Holt

Steve Largent

Irving Fryar
That's about right. You need to take Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne off the list. No way they are on that list with out playing with Manning. Now how many TD's did these guys average per year? Minus Wayne and Harrison of course.

Basically 2/3rds of the WR on the top 15 all-time receiving list are over 6-1. Then when you factor in TD's you see why rating WR under 6'1 as elite prospects is a bad idea.
You shouldn't take people off the list without adding to the list all the WRs under 6-1 who had terrible QB situations. No need to cherry pick. The list is the list.
lol yeah Harrison would have caught 128 TD without manning no problem. Thumbs up. Same with Wayne.If you want to draft 6'0 WR. Go for it. It's significantly less likely they'll be elite. Doesn't mean it can't happen but people need to factor that in when they are valuing a small WR like Watkins.
I'm not a mathematician, but pretty sure 8/15 is not 1/3. How are you coming up with 7/15 being 2/3?

In 2012, with a QB other than Manning, Wayne had 106-1,355-5, the second most receptions and tied-second in yards. That was at the age of 34. So the theory that we need to "take Harrison and Wayne off the list" doesn't hold up. Do we take everybody off the list if they had a good QB? Why? Just to prove a point about WRs only being "really good" unless they are 6'5" 240 lbs?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WaynRe00.htm

If Watkins is "small", what is "average", 6'2"-6'3" and 215-220 lbs?

There aren't elite WRs in every draft, so if you take a WR, a team has to restrict themselves to who is actually there. Do you take a stiff like Bemjamin over Watkins just because he is bigger? Some have compared Evans to the top half dozen WRs. While he has the size of some of them, he falls short on speed or some other trait/s. He isn't Calvin, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Dez, Gordon, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, etc.

*Excerpt from an article about Clemson's pro day.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/06/clemson-pro-day-wont-hurt-sammy-watkins-or-help-tajh-boyd/

"NFL Networks Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this years draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

Hes one of the best wide receivers Ive seen on tape in the last 10 years, Mayock said. Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all hes going to do is catch the football, and if he doesnt get hurt hes a Top 10 pick.

** EBF in this thread... I think the VJ is within a half inch of what A.J. Green did, so doesn't need to be a deathblow-type measureable.

"He came in way heavier than expected at the combine and that was the big surprise to me. He is massive for his height. Right near the top of the WR range. Here are relevant combine numbers from other WRs in the 28+ BMI range:

NAME - BMI / 40 / BROAD JUMP / VERTICAL

Sammy Watkins - 28.1 / 4.43 / 10'5" / 34"

Andre Johnson - 29.5 / 4.41 / 10'9" / 41"

Vincent Jackson - 28.8 / 4.46 / 10'9" / 39"

Dez Bryant - 28.8 / 4.52 / 11'0" / 38"

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 / 4.35 / 11'7" / 42.5"

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2 / 4.48 / ?? / ??

Victor Cruz - 28.2 / 4.47 / 10'5" / 41.5"

Watkins has one of the best 40 times among elite players from this size range. Only Calvin and Andre were faster. So I think it's fair to say that his speed is freakish for his size."
I'm taking Harrison and Wayne out because they played with the GOAT. I doubt either one is on that list without manning. There is also a few guys from a different era that doesn't translate well.

 
Also, someone link me the last year we didnt have an analyst hyping a WE as "one of the best in the last x years".

An extremely vague compliment.

 
NFL Networks Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this years draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

Hes one of the best wide receivers Ive seen on tape in the last 10 years, Mayock said. Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all hes going to do is catch the football, and if he doesnt get hurt hes a Top 10 pick.

------------------------------------------------------------

NFL.coms Daniel Jeremiah says Watkins is the best receiver in the class and a Top 5 player overall.

"Watkins has dynamic speed and is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. He is explosive in his release, runs crisp routes, and attacks the ball in the air. He can high-point in traffic as well as track the ball over his shoulder. After the catch, he is very elusive, has the strength to pull through tackles and the burst to run away from defenders. He has all of the tools to be a No. 1 wide receiver

------------------------------------------------------------

Mel Kiper Jr., from ESPN.com also has Watkins as the best receiver in the class.

"Watkins plays bigger than he measures, runs bigger than his listed size and has always had explosive speed. He fights through contact to make plays on the ball, and once he has it, he's devastating after the catch. Watkins blends polish with a high level of explosiveness and can turn catches on the edges or between the hashes into big plays. He accelerates with ease and displays top-end speed combined with the willingness to power through tackles. He also does a good job of working back to the ball to become a big factor when plays break down"

-------------------------------------------------

Rob Rang of CBSSports.com says its possible that Watkins becomes the next wide receiver to be drafted in the Top 5.

"Watkins doesn't have the elite size that helped A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson earn top-six selections since 2007, but he does have virtually everything else -- including instant acceleration, impressive body control and the natural hands to pluck the ball outside of his frame. Watkins could go as high as No. 2 to the St. Louis Rams."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lol I stopped reading at "because his combine was so good"
LOL says the arm chair GM who is focused soley on measureables.It is being reported by the best in the business that not only was his combine good (remember the players do drills as well), but his tape proves he is one of the best WR's to come out in the last while.

I will trust Mayock and Cossell more than your view point.
good that means I'll get the best big wr prospect in this draft with the #2 pick in the draft and you can have the best small wr in the draft.

 
NFL Network’s Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this year’s draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

“He’s one of the best wide receivers I’ve seen on tape in the last 10 years,” Mayock said. “Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all he’s going to do is catch the football, and if he doesn’t get hurt he’s a Top 10 pick.”

------------------------------------------------------------

[SIZE=1em]NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah says Watkins is the best receiver in the class and a Top 5 player overall.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins has dynamic speed and is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. He is explosive in his release, runs crisp routes, and attacks the ball in the air. He can high-point in traffic as well as track the ball over his shoulder. After the catch, he is very elusive, has the strength to pull through tackles and the burst to run away from defenders. He has all of the tools to be a No. 1 wide receiver[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]------------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]Mel Kiper Jr., from ESPN.com also has Watkins as the best receiver in the class.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins plays bigger than he measures, runs bigger than his listed size and has always had explosive speed. He fights through contact to make plays on the ball, and once he has it, he's devastating after the catch. Watkins blends polish with a high level of explosiveness and can turn catches on the edges or between the hashes into big plays. He accelerates with ease and displays top-end speed combined with the willingness to power through tackles. He also does a good job of working back to the ball to become a big factor when plays break down"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]-------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]Rob Rang of CBSSports.com says it’s possible that Watkins becomes the next wide receiver to be drafted in the Top 5.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]"Watkins doesn't have the elite size that helped A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson earn top-six selections since 2007, but he does have virtually everything else -- including instant acceleration, impressive body control and the natural hands to pluck the ball outside of his frame. Watkins could go as high as No. 2 to the St. Louis Rams."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=1em]---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]
I have been banging this drum all season. He is one of the best college wideouts that I have ever seen. His speed and instincts for the ball are mind blowing.

 
Whose to say he isn't still growing at 20? Maybe Watkins will grow half an inch and satisfy the height police

 
Also, someone link me the last year we didnt have an analyst hyping a WE as "one of the best in the last x years".

An extremely vague compliment.
2011 with Green and Jones was the last draft I remember with this level of consensus on a WR being elite. Calvin Johnson before that.

Not so vague.

 
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6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol.
6-1 and shorter WR's in the top 15 all-time in receiving yards:

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Henry Ellard

Reggie Wayne

Torrey Holt

Steve Largent

Irving Fryar
That's about right. You need to take Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne off the list. No way they are on that list with out playing with Manning. Now how many TD's did these guys average per year? Minus Wayne and Harrison of course.

Basically 2/3rds of the WR on the top 15 all-time receiving list are over 6-1. Then when you factor in TD's you see why rating WR under 6'1 as elite prospects is a bad idea.
You shouldn't take people off the list without adding to the list all the WRs under 6-1 who had terrible QB situations. No need to cherry pick. The list is the list.
lol yeah Harrison would have caught 128 TD without manning no problem. Thumbs up. Same with Wayne.If you want to draft 6'0 WR. Go for it. It's significantly less likely they'll be elite. Doesn't mean it can't happen but people need to factor that in when they are valuing a small WR like Watkins.
I'm not a mathematician, but pretty sure 8/15 is not 1/3. How are you coming up with 7/15 being 2/3?

In 2012, with a QB other than Manning, Wayne had 106-1,355-5, the second most receptions and tied-second in yards. That was at the age of 34. So the theory that we need to "take Harrison and Wayne off the list" doesn't hold up. Do we take everybody off the list if they had a good QB? Why? Just to prove a point about WRs only being "really good" unless they are 6'5" 240 lbs?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WaynRe00.htm

If Watkins is "small", what is "average", 6'2"-6'3" and 215-220 lbs?

There aren't elite WRs in every draft, so if you take a WR, a team has to restrict themselves to who is actually there. Do you take a stiff like Bemjamin over Watkins just because he is bigger? Some have compared Evans to the top half dozen WRs. While he has the size of some of them, he falls short on speed or some other trait/s. He isn't Calvin, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Dez, Gordon, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, etc.

*Excerpt from an article about Clemson's pro day.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/06/clemson-pro-day-wont-hurt-sammy-watkins-or-help-tajh-boyd/

"NFL Networks Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this years draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

Hes one of the best wide receivers Ive seen on tape in the last 10 years, Mayock said. Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all hes going to do is catch the football, and if he doesnt get hurt hes a Top 10 pick.

** EBF in this thread... I think the VJ is within a half inch of what A.J. Green did, so doesn't need to be a deathblow-type measureable.

"He came in way heavier than expected at the combine and that was the big surprise to me. He is massive for his height. Right near the top of the WR range. Here are relevant combine numbers from other WRs in the 28+ BMI range:

NAME - BMI / 40 / BROAD JUMP / VERTICAL

Sammy Watkins - 28.1 / 4.43 / 10'5" / 34"

Andre Johnson - 29.5 / 4.41 / 10'9" / 41"

Vincent Jackson - 28.8 / 4.46 / 10'9" / 39"

Dez Bryant - 28.8 / 4.52 / 11'0" / 38"

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 / 4.35 / 11'7" / 42.5"

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2 / 4.48 / ?? / ??

Victor Cruz - 28.2 / 4.47 / 10'5" / 41.5"

Watkins has one of the best 40 times among elite players from this size range. Only Calvin and Andre were faster. So I think it's fair to say that his speed is freakish for his size."
I'm taking Harrison and Wayne out because they played with the GOAT. I doubt either one is on that list without manning. There is also a few guys from a different era that doesn't translate well.
But that is wrong. Wayne put up among the best stats of his career without Manning. At 34.

Again, should we throw out all the good stats compiled by bigger WRs like Jerry Rice because he played with Montana and Young? Or are you just looking to throw out the stats of the WRs that don't fit comfortably into your big = intrinsically better, not big = intrinsically worse theory?

 
good that means I'll get the best big wr prospect in this draft with the #2 pick in the draft and you can have the best small wr in the draft.
BTW, I've never said not to take Evans over Watkins. It's very close IMO.
 
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It would be interesting to have a Mike Evans vs. A.J. Green discussion:

Evans: 6-4.6, 231, 4.53, 1.53 10split, 37" vertical, 7.08 3cone, 4.26 SS

Green: 6-3.5, 211, 4.48, 1.55 10split, 34.5" vertical, 6.91 3cone, 4.21 SS

 
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2014 Pro Days: Clemson's Watkins wows 'em one last time


By Jeff Reynolds | NFLDraftScout.com

March 6, 2014 12:48 pm ET

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins wowed rows of scouts and left legions of fans looking in via mobile streaming on ESPN pining for the potential top five draft pick.

Watkins did not run the 40-yard dash, choosing to let his 4.43 at the NFL Scouting Combine last month stand, but he displayed big, soft and powerful hands, explosive speed into and out of breaks and the ability to go get the ball at its highest point as a receiver for quarterback Tajh Boyd.

At least 31 teams were accounted for at the workout, which featured Watkins, wide receiver Martavis Bryant, Roderick McDowell and Boyd.

The St. Louis Rams, who own the Nos. 2 and 13 overall picks and could draft Watkins as a No. 1 receiver after average results from 2013 top-10 pick Tavon Austin, were well represented, including general manager Les Snead. The Rams haven't been to the playoffs since 2004 with first-round wide receiver Torry Holt and second-rounder Isaac Bruce. But St. Louis is in need of playmakers despite drafting receivers Austin (8th overall, 2013), Brian Quick (33rd, 2012), Chris Givens (96, 2012), Austin Pettis (78, 2011) and Mardy Gilyard (99, 2010) in the top 100 in recent years.

Detroit sent a good chunk of its front office. General manager Martin Mayhew, who stated wide receiver help for Matthew Stafford opposite All-Pro Calvin Johnson was a priority, was spotted.

New York Jets general manager John Idzik and head coach Rex Ryan -- whose son Seth is a walk-on at Clemson -- were early arrivals.

Delegates from the Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders were also in attendance as were Carolina Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith -- working for ESPN -- and former Clemson running back C.J. Spiller of the Buffalo Bills.

Watkins is the No. 1 wide receiver in NFLDraftScout.com's rankings. The last wide receiver drafted first overall was Keyshawn Johnson (Jets), who was also at Clemson's workout Thursday.

Wide receivers are considered difficult projections by most scouts, and while the fouls and corkscrew swinging misses stand out when reviewing first-round receivers -- Mike Williams, Reggie Williams, David Terrell, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Ted Ginn were top-10 picks -- the more recent trend is more positive.

Johnson, Julio Jones of the Falcons, A.J. Green of the Bengals and Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) were drafted in the top 10 and have Pro Bowl resumes.

Fitzgerald stood and saluted Watkins' world-beater performance against Ohio State in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl: 16 receptions for 227 yards and two touchdowns. On his 31-yard third quarter touchdown reception, Fitzgerald said in realtime via Twitter: "Sammy Watkins = Snag!"

Follow Jeff Reynolds on Twitter @ReynoldsJD
 
Also, someone link me the last year we didnt have an analyst hyping a WE as "one of the best in the last x years".

An extremely vague compliment.
2011 with Green and Jones was the last draft I remember with this level of consensus on a WR being elite. Calvin Johnson before that.

Not so vague.
Is he putting Watkins in that class, or just saying "since"... vague.

Is he one of the top 10 in the last X years, top 8.. top 15? Vague.

 
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Since Calvin 7 years ago there have been seven WR's taking in the top 15 picks of the draft:

Austin

Blackmon

Floyd

Green

Jones

DHB

Crabtree

With the exception of DHB (who was a reach because he was a physical freak) and Austin (who the jury is still out on), all of them have proven to be good WR's. I expect Watkins and Evans to follow the pattern.

 
6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol.
6-1 and shorter WR's in the top 15 all-time in receiving yards:

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Henry Ellard

Reggie Wayne

Torrey Holt

Steve Largent

Irving Fryar
That's about right. You need to take Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne off the list. No way they are on that list with out playing with Manning. Now how many TD's did these guys average per year? Minus Wayne and Harrison of course.

Basically 2/3rds of the WR on the top 15 all-time receiving list are over 6-1. Then when you factor in TD's you see why rating WR under 6'1 as elite prospects is a bad idea.
You shouldn't take people off the list without adding to the list all the WRs under 6-1 who had terrible QB situations. No need to cherry pick. The list is the list.
lol yeah Harrison would have caught 128 TD without manning no problem. Thumbs up. Same with Wayne.If you want to draft 6'0 WR. Go for it. It's significantly less likely they'll be elite. Doesn't mean it can't happen but people need to factor that in when they are valuing a small WR like Watkins.
I'm not a mathematician, but pretty sure 8/15 is not 1/3. How are you coming up with 7/15 being 2/3?

In 2012, with a QB other than Manning, Wayne had 106-1,355-5, the second most receptions and tied-second in yards. That was at the age of 34. So the theory that we need to "take Harrison and Wayne off the list" doesn't hold up. Do we take everybody off the list if they had a good QB? Why? Just to prove a point about WRs only being "really good" unless they are 6'5" 240 lbs?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WaynRe00.htm

If Watkins is "small", what is "average", 6'2"-6'3" and 215-220 lbs?

There aren't elite WRs in every draft, so if you take a WR, a team has to restrict themselves to who is actually there. Do you take a stiff like Bemjamin over Watkins just because he is bigger? Some have compared Evans to the top half dozen WRs. While he has the size of some of them, he falls short on speed or some other trait/s. He isn't Calvin, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Dez, Gordon, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, etc.

*Excerpt from an article about Clemson's pro day.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/06/clemson-pro-day-wont-hurt-sammy-watkins-or-help-tajh-boyd/

"NFL Networks Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this years draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

Hes one of the best wide receivers Ive seen on tape in the last 10 years, Mayock said. Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all hes going to do is catch the football, and if he doesnt get hurt hes a Top 10 pick.

** EBF in this thread... I think the VJ is within a half inch of what A.J. Green did, so doesn't need to be a deathblow-type measureable.

"He came in way heavier than expected at the combine and that was the big surprise to me. He is massive for his height. Right near the top of the WR range. Here are relevant combine numbers from other WRs in the 28+ BMI range:

NAME - BMI / 40 / BROAD JUMP / VERTICAL

Sammy Watkins - 28.1 / 4.43 / 10'5" / 34"

Andre Johnson - 29.5 / 4.41 / 10'9" / 41"

Vincent Jackson - 28.8 / 4.46 / 10'9" / 39"

Dez Bryant - 28.8 / 4.52 / 11'0" / 38"

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 / 4.35 / 11'7" / 42.5"

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2 / 4.48 / ?? / ??

Victor Cruz - 28.2 / 4.47 / 10'5" / 41.5"

Watkins has one of the best 40 times among elite players from this size range. Only Calvin and Andre were faster. So I think it's fair to say that his speed is freakish for his size."
I'm taking Harrison and Wayne out because they played with the GOAT. I doubt either one is on that list without manning. There is also a few guys from a different era that doesn't translate well.
But that is wrong. Wayne put up among the best stats of his career without Manning. At 34.

Again, should we throw out all the good stats compiled by bigger WRs like Jerry Rice because he played with Montana and Young? Or are you just looking to throw out the stats of the WRs that don't fit comfortably into your big = intrinsically better, not big = intrinsically worse theory?
No but when a WR like Marvin Harrison is such a statistical anomaly we should take into account some outside factors. Playing with the best QB to ever play the game does affect how I interpret a WR's stats. It's silly to ignore that don't you think?

 
It would be interesting to have a Mike Evans vs. A.J. Green discussion:Evans: 6-4.6, 231, 4.53, 1.53 10split, 37" vertical, 7.08 3cone, 4.26 SSGreen: 6-3.5, 211, 4.48, 1.55 10split, 34.5" vertical, 6.91 3cone, 4.21 SS
Me three on Evans.

I coincidentally was just going to post about him.

But first, it seems some are missing a point about the scouting consensus. Maybe they will be wrong about him (like any prospect, even big ones), but they aren't qualifying it like, he is elite... FOR A NON-BIG WR. The fact that he isn't 6'3" 220 lbs. falls into the category of information they already possess. Nonetheless, they are saying, nearly in unison, reaching a crescendo :) , that Watkins is the best WR in the class. His physical stature (or lack thereof for some) is BAKED into the OVERALL GRADE. They have evaluated and vetted his skill set, along with his size, in making that judgement and coming to that conclusion.

An analysis that says little more than he isn't big so he probably won't be great is not on the same level of scouting report, at least if stated in that kind of a skeletal, stripped down form with zero additional context. Roddy White is a top 10 WR. If Robinson is similar in many ways to White (or Crabtree or Nicks - when healthy recently borderline top 10 WRs), and is similarly equipped to "beat the odds" as to more contemporary elite WRs being big, why not project him similarly.

Back to Evans, if I really thought he had comparable speed to Calvin, Julio, Demarius, Andre Johnson, even with his relative positional experience (late bloomer as a prep), with that hypothetical awesome size/speed combo, why not swing for the fences. Just like Watkins could have a career like White if he IS White in many ways measurables-wise, Evans could be like the current Pro Bowl athletic marvel giants, if he WAS them. But he isn't. He isn't that fast. So now who are we really comparing him. Lesser WRs, than all of a sudden maybe they aren't top 10 WRs, and those comps aren't as compelling and no brainer. Addressing the above Evans to Green comp, Green has acrobatic, contortionist on muscle relaxants, Gumby/Larry Fitzgerald-like body control and aerial skills. Evans looked very good to me, and impressed in agility and gauntlet drills, but IMO, he isn't on Green's level in those pure attributes/traits.

Maybe Evans will be as good as the top big WRs in the game today, anything could happen (Beckham could be Harvin/Cobb, Cooks could be Steve Smith?). But it won't be because he has the elite speed of the top WRs, or elite body control of Green, it will have to be for other reasons. At the risk of being ham handedly didactic, what are those hypothetical other attributes and traits that will help him compensate for and ultimately overcome the areas in which he lacks relative to the top WRs and suffers in the comparison.

Of course, Watkins isn't as fast as some of the above WRs, either (though per EBFs post above, in his BMI class among the top WRs, only Calvin and Andre came up faster, so he actually does have elite speed when viewed through a BMI lens and not rigidly by height), but I'm not comparing Watkins to them, like some are Evans to Julio and Demarius. I'm comparing him to White, perhaps a faster and more explosive Crabtree and Nicks.

To extend the analysis beyond big - good, not big - bad :) , that by necessity leads to breaking down their skill sets and games more in-depth. To cite merely one example, Evans, while not lumbering, does not appear to have the same level of suddenness, burst and short area explosion as Watkins, which makes the latter a far more dangerous open field runner, and more likely to take it to the house on a slant if a DB takes a bad angle or misses a tackle. On the surface, Evans height advantage and power forward rebounder-like skill set given his hoops background should make him a better jump ball receiver. Anyways, these are the kinds of strengths and weaknesses that need to be explored first, if the analysis is to be more than an automated, mechanistic slotting by size.

 
6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol.
6-1 and shorter WR's in the top 15 all-time in receiving yards:

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Henry Ellard

Reggie Wayne

Torrey Holt

Steve Largent

Irving Fryar
That's about right. You need to take Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne off the list. No way they are on that list with out playing with Manning. Now how many TD's did these guys average per year? Minus Wayne and Harrison of course.

Basically 2/3rds of the WR on the top 15 all-time receiving list are over 6-1. Then when you factor in TD's you see why rating WR under 6'1 as elite prospects is a bad idea.
You shouldn't take people off the list without adding to the list all the WRs under 6-1 who had terrible QB situations. No need to cherry pick. The list is the list.
lol yeah Harrison would have caught 128 TD without manning no problem. Thumbs up. Same with Wayne.If you want to draft 6'0 WR. Go for it. It's significantly less likely they'll be elite. Doesn't mean it can't happen but people need to factor that in when they are valuing a small WR like Watkins.
I'm not a mathematician, but pretty sure 8/15 is not 1/3. How are you coming up with 7/15 being 2/3?

In 2012, with a QB other than Manning, Wayne had 106-1,355-5, the second most receptions and tied-second in yards. That was at the age of 34. So the theory that we need to "take Harrison and Wayne off the list" doesn't hold up. Do we take everybody off the list if they had a good QB? Why? Just to prove a point about WRs only being "really good" unless they are 6'5" 240 lbs?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WaynRe00.htm

If Watkins is "small", what is "average", 6'2"-6'3" and 215-220 lbs?

There aren't elite WRs in every draft, so if you take a WR, a team has to restrict themselves to who is actually there. Do you take a stiff like Bemjamin over Watkins just because he is bigger? Some have compared Evans to the top half dozen WRs. While he has the size of some of them, he falls short on speed or some other trait/s. He isn't Calvin, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Dez, Gordon, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, etc.

*Excerpt from an article about Clemson's pro day.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/06/clemson-pro-day-wont-hurt-sammy-watkins-or-help-tajh-boyd/

"NFL Networks Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this years draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

Hes one of the best wide receivers Ive seen on tape in the last 10 years, Mayock said. Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all hes going to do is catch the football, and if he doesnt get hurt hes a Top 10 pick.

** EBF in this thread... I think the VJ is within a half inch of what A.J. Green did, so doesn't need to be a deathblow-type measureable.

"He came in way heavier than expected at the combine and that was the big surprise to me. He is massive for his height. Right near the top of the WR range. Here are relevant combine numbers from other WRs in the 28+ BMI range:

NAME - BMI / 40 / BROAD JUMP / VERTICAL

Sammy Watkins - 28.1 / 4.43 / 10'5" / 34"

Andre Johnson - 29.5 / 4.41 / 10'9" / 41"

Vincent Jackson - 28.8 / 4.46 / 10'9" / 39"

Dez Bryant - 28.8 / 4.52 / 11'0" / 38"

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 / 4.35 / 11'7" / 42.5"

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2 / 4.48 / ?? / ??

Victor Cruz - 28.2 / 4.47 / 10'5" / 41.5"

Watkins has one of the best 40 times among elite players from this size range. Only Calvin and Andre were faster. So I think it's fair to say that his speed is freakish for his size."
I'm taking Harrison and Wayne out because they played with the GOAT. I doubt either one is on that list without manning. There is also a few guys from a different era that doesn't translate well.
But that is wrong. Wayne put up among the best stats of his career without Manning. At 34.Again, should we throw out all the good stats compiled by bigger WRs like Jerry Rice because he played with Montana and Young? Or are you just looking to throw out the stats of the WRs that don't fit comfortably into your big = intrinsically better, not big = intrinsically worse theory?
No but when a WR like Marvin Harrison is such a statistical anomaly we should take into account some outside factors. Playing with the best QB to ever play the game does affect how I interpret a WR's stats. It's silly to ignore that don't you think?
Its silly to ignore that he isn't an anomaly (check the top historical WRs embedded in the quote above), to say more than 1/2 is 1/3, to make a point about Wayne that is mistaken or to arbitrarily not also throw out Rice's stats when he clearly was the beneficiary of maybe the best 1-2 punch at QB in NFL history (since Waterfield and Van Brocklin?). Don't you think?
 
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good that means I'll get the best big wr prospect in this draft with the #2 pick in the draft and you can have the best small wr in the draft.
BTW, I've never said not to take Evans over Watkins. It's very close IMO.
That's not what the consensus is.

My point is this. Why take a 6'0 4.4 guy at #2 overall with a draft this deep at WR? Hell you can have a 6'3 4.4 guy in the second round that has a great shot at being better anyway imo. The wr is so deep a premium shouldn't be put on Watkins. It should have the exact opposite effect on where he's drafted.

St Louis should draft

#2 OT Matthews or OT Robinson

#13 DT Aaron Donald

and in the second round they should steal Jordan Matthews if he's still there. Which I have a feeling a smart team is going to grab late in the first but he could fall to the second.

A big LOL @ any team that takes a 6'0 4.4 wr in the top 5.

 
Maybe Evans will be as good as the top big WRs in the game today, anything could happen (Beckham could be Harvin/Cobb, Cooks could be Steve Smith?). But it won't be because he has the elite speed of the top WRs, or elite body control of Green, it will have to be for other reasons. At the risk of being ham handedly didactic, what are those hypothetical other attributes and traits that will help him compensate for and ultimately overcome the areas in which he lacks relative to the top WRs and suffers in the comparison.
You're right, it's not fair to compare Evans to Green, a guy who is 20 lbs. lighter and plays more like Moss than a guy like Evans.

Evans: 6-4.6, 231, 4.53, 37" vertical, 7.08 3cone, 4.26 SS

Marshall: 6-4.4, 229, 4.52, 37" vertical, 6.91 3cone, 4.31 SS

 
6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol.
6-1 and shorter WR's in the top 15 all-time in receiving yards:

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Henry Ellard

Reggie Wayne

Torrey Holt

Steve Largent

Irving Fryar
That's about right. You need to take Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne off the list. No way they are on that list with out playing with Manning. Now how many TD's did these guys average per year? Minus Wayne and Harrison of course.

Basically 2/3rds of the WR on the top 15 all-time receiving list are over 6-1. Then when you factor in TD's you see why rating WR under 6'1 as elite prospects is a bad idea.
You shouldn't take people off the list without adding to the list all the WRs under 6-1 who had terrible QB situations. No need to cherry pick. The list is the list.
lol yeah Harrison would have caught 128 TD without manning no problem. Thumbs up. Same with Wayne.If you want to draft 6'0 WR. Go for it. It's significantly less likely they'll be elite. Doesn't mean it can't happen but people need to factor that in when they are valuing a small WR like Watkins.
I'm not a mathematician, but pretty sure 8/15 is not 1/3. How are you coming up with 7/15 being 2/3?

In 2012, with a QB other than Manning, Wayne had 106-1,355-5, the second most receptions and tied-second in yards. That was at the age of 34. So the theory that we need to "take Harrison and Wayne off the list" doesn't hold up. Do we take everybody off the list if they had a good QB? Why? Just to prove a point about WRs only being "really good" unless they are 6'5" 240 lbs?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WaynRe00.htm

If Watkins is "small", what is "average", 6'2"-6'3" and 215-220 lbs?

There aren't elite WRs in every draft, so if you take a WR, a team has to restrict themselves to who is actually there. Do you take a stiff like Bemjamin over Watkins just because he is bigger? Some have compared Evans to the top half dozen WRs. While he has the size of some of them, he falls short on speed or some other trait/s. He isn't Calvin, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Dez, Gordon, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, etc.

*Excerpt from an article about Clemson's pro day.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/06/clemson-pro-day-wont-hurt-sammy-watkins-or-help-tajh-boyd/

"NFL Networks Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this years draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

Hes one of the best wide receivers Ive seen on tape in the last 10 years, Mayock said. Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all hes going to do is catch the football, and if he doesnt get hurt hes a Top 10 pick.

** EBF in this thread... I think the VJ is within a half inch of what A.J. Green did, so doesn't need to be a deathblow-type measureable.

"He came in way heavier than expected at the combine and that was the big surprise to me. He is massive for his height. Right near the top of the WR range. Here are relevant combine numbers from other WRs in the 28+ BMI range:

NAME - BMI / 40 / BROAD JUMP / VERTICAL

Sammy Watkins - 28.1 / 4.43 / 10'5" / 34"

Andre Johnson - 29.5 / 4.41 / 10'9" / 41"

Vincent Jackson - 28.8 / 4.46 / 10'9" / 39"

Dez Bryant - 28.8 / 4.52 / 11'0" / 38"

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 / 4.35 / 11'7" / 42.5"

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2 / 4.48 / ?? / ??

Victor Cruz - 28.2 / 4.47 / 10'5" / 41.5"

Watkins has one of the best 40 times among elite players from this size range. Only Calvin and Andre were faster. So I think it's fair to say that his speed is freakish for his size."
I'm taking Harrison and Wayne out because they played with the GOAT. I doubt either one is on that list without manning. There is also a few guys from a different era that doesn't translate well.
But that is wrong. Wayne put up among the best stats of his career without Manning. At 34.Again, should we throw out all the good stats compiled by bigger WRs like Jerry Rice because he played with Montana and Young? Or are you just looking to throw out the stats of the WRs that don't fit comfortably into your big = intrinsically better, not big = intrinsically worse theory?
No but when a WR like Marvin Harrison is such a statistical anomaly we should take into account some outside factors. Playing with the best QB to ever play the game does affect how I interpret a WR's stats. It's silly to ignore that don't you think?
Its silly to ignore that he isn't an anomaly (check the top historical WRs embedded in the quote above), to say more than 1/2 is 1/3, to make a point about Wayne that is mistaken or to arbitrarily not also throw out Rice's stats when he clearly was the beneficiary of maybe the best 1-2 punch at QB in NFL history (since Waterfield and Van Brocklin?). Don't you think?
5'11 175 pound Marvin Harrison is a Red Zone monster in your eyes? If that's the case then this conversation is over. Maybe think about that for a while.

 
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Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.

 
5'11 175 pound Marvin Harrison is a Red Zone monster in your eyes? If that's the case then this conversation is over. Maybe think about that for a while.
He has 8 seasons with double digit TD's to Andre Johnson's 0.

 
Since Calvin 7 years ago there have been seven WR's taking in the top 15 picks of the draft:

Austin

Blackmon

Floyd

Green

Jones

DHB

Crabtree

With the exception of DHB (who was a reach because he was a physical freak) and Austin (who the jury is still out on), all of them have proven to be good WR's. I expect Watkins and Evans to follow the pattern.
Good point, for a few years there were some prominent busts, like Terrell, Koren Robinson, every DET WR but Megatron, etc.

The scouts seem to be doing a better job at the position lately, at least in that range of the draft (or random variance in a small historical sample?).

Within this subset, Green, Blackmon and Julio had the highest pedigree. Hard to evaluate Blackmon given his implosion, but regardless, Green and Jones would be the cream of the crop. We are left with neither WR matching up with them for various reasons. But who has a better projection. Will Watkins superior explosiveness and speed and more polished receiving skills overcome Evans size advantage?

Going by this very limited data set, pedigree matters. So if Watkins is drafted in the top 5-6 (where Green, Blackmon and Julio went), that carries some weight with me.

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.

 
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6'0" 4.4+ WR with no vert lol.
6-1 and shorter WR's in the top 15 all-time in receiving yards:

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Henry Ellard

Reggie Wayne

Torrey Holt

Steve Largent

Irving Fryar
That's about right. You need to take Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne off the list. No way they are on that list with out playing with Manning. Now how many TD's did these guys average per year? Minus Wayne and Harrison of course.

Basically 2/3rds of the WR on the top 15 all-time receiving list are over 6-1. Then when you factor in TD's you see why rating WR under 6'1 as elite prospects is a bad idea.
You shouldn't take people off the list without adding to the list all the WRs under 6-1 who had terrible QB situations. No need to cherry pick. The list is the list.
lol yeah Harrison would have caught 128 TD without manning no problem. Thumbs up. Same with Wayne.

If you want to draft 6'0 WR. Go for it. It's significantly less likely they'll be elite. Doesn't mean it can't happen but people need to factor that in when they are valuing a small WR like Watkins.
I'm not a mathematician, but pretty sure 8/15 is not 1/3. How are you coming up with 7/15 being 2/3?

In 2012, with a QB other than Manning, Wayne had 106-1,355-5, the second most receptions and tied-second in yards. That was at the age of 34. So the theory that we need to "take Harrison and Wayne off the list" doesn't hold up. Do we take everybody off the list if they had a good QB? Why? Just to prove a point about WRs only being "really good" unless they are 6'5" 240 lbs?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WaynRe00.htm

If Watkins is "small", what is "average", 6'2"-6'3" and 215-220 lbs?

There aren't elite WRs in every draft, so if you take a WR, a team has to restrict themselves to who is actually there. Do you take a stiff like Bemjamin over Watkins just because he is bigger? Some have compared Evans to the top half dozen WRs. While he has the size of some of them, he falls short on speed or some other trait/s. He isn't Calvin, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Dez, Gordon, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, etc.

*Excerpt from an article about Clemson's pro day.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/06/clemson-pro-day-wont-hurt-sammy-watkins-or-help-tajh-boyd/

"NFL Networks Mike Mayock considers Watkins not just the best receiver in this years draft but one of the most complete wide receivers to come out of college in many years.

Hes one of the best wide receivers Ive seen on tape in the last 10 years, Mayock said. Because his Combine was so good a couple weeks ago, I think all hes going to do is catch the football, and if he doesnt get hurt hes a Top 10 pick.

** EBF in this thread... I think the VJ is within a half inch of what A.J. Green did, so doesn't need to be a deathblow-type measureable.

"He came in way heavier than expected at the combine and that was the big surprise to me. He is massive for his height. Right near the top of the WR range. Here are relevant combine numbers from other WRs in the 28+ BMI range:

NAME - BMI / 40 / BROAD JUMP / VERTICAL

Sammy Watkins - 28.1 / 4.43 / 10'5" / 34"

Andre Johnson - 29.5 / 4.41 / 10'9" / 41"

Vincent Jackson - 28.8 / 4.46 / 10'9" / 39"

Dez Bryant - 28.8 / 4.52 / 11'0" / 38"

Calvin Johnson - 28.3 / 4.35 / 11'7" / 42.5"

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.2 / 4.48 / ?? / ??

Victor Cruz - 28.2 / 4.47 / 10'5" / 41.5"

Watkins has one of the best 40 times among elite players from this size range. Only Calvin and Andre were faster. So I think it's fair to say that his speed is freakish for his size."
I'm taking Harrison and Wayne out because they played with the GOAT. I doubt either one is on that list without manning. There is also a few guys from a different era that doesn't translate well.
But that is wrong. Wayne put up among the best stats of his career without Manning. At 34.

Again, should we throw out all the good stats compiled by bigger WRs like Jerry Rice because he played with Montana and Young? Or are you just looking to throw out the stats of the WRs that don't fit comfortably into your big = intrinsically better, not big = intrinsically worse theory?
No but when a WR like Marvin Harrison is such a statistical anomaly we should take into account some outside factors. Playing with the best QB to ever play the game does affect how I interpret a WR's stats. It's silly to ignore that don't you think?
Its silly to ignore that he isn't an anomaly (check the top historical WRs embedded in the quote above), to say more than 1/2 is 1/3, to make a point about Wayne that is mistaken or to arbitrarily not also throw out Rice's stats when he clearly was the beneficiary of maybe the best 1-2 punch at QB in NFL history (since Waterfield and Van Brocklin?). Don't you think?
5'11 175 pound Marvin Harrison is a Red Zone monster in your eyes? If that's the case then this conversation is over. Maybe think about that for a while.
You are tacitly conceding and back pedaling on Wayne. Maybe you are wrong about Harrison, too.

Why again are you arbitrarily not throwing out Rice's numbers? Should we throw out what Emmitt Smith did because he had a great OL, that would be no less arbitrary of you?

We were talking about historically top WRs OVERALL, not historical red zone monsters. Now you are shifting the boundaries to make your point (there are ways to score other than being a red zone monster, especially in PPR leagues). :)

Maybe think about that for a while.

 
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Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
You're missing the point. Obviously all things being equal bigger is better, but that doesn't mean a smaller receiver can be a stud in the NFL.

I prefer big WR's (10 of my top 12 WR's in dynasty are 6-2+) but I'm not writing off guys based on their height.

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
You're missing the point. Obviously all things being equal bigger is better, but that doesn't mean a smaller receiver can be a stud in the NFL.

I prefer big WR's (10 of my top 12 WR's in dynasty are 6-2+) but I'm not writing off guys based on their height.
Very well said. It seems ridiculous to write off a prospect like Watkins due to height.

 
I'm not conceding anything. I take into account 2 of the small WR that happen to be in the conversation as top 15 greatest of all time played with the greatest QB of all time. One of them happened to score like 128 TD's at 5'11 175 pounds. I find that to be an anomaly.

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
You're missing the point. Obviously all things being equal bigger is better, but that doesn't mean a smaller receiver can be a stud in the NFL.

I prefer big WR's (10 of my top 12 WR's in dynasty are 6-2+) but I'm not writing off guys based on their height.
You should if 10 of your top 12 are 6'2 or better. That's a lot of misses.

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
You're missing the point. Obviously all things being equal bigger is better, but that doesn't mean a smaller receiver can be a stud in the NFL.

I prefer big WR's (10 of my top 12 WR's in dynasty are 6-2+) but I'm not writing off guys based on their height.
Very well said. It seems ridiculous to write off a prospect like Watkins due to height.
lol did you not see what he wrote? 10 of his top 12 WR in FF are 6'2+. Go ahead draft another midget. I mean Watkins "could" be a top 12 WR in FF but it looks like Evans has a lot better chance. I looks like 83% of the top 12 WR's are 6'2 or better. This is probably to simple but hey that leaves 17% under 6'2. Of the two under 6'2 any of them over 6'1?

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
You're missing the point. Obviously all things being equal bigger is better, but that doesn't mean a smaller receiver can be a stud in the NFL.

I prefer big WR's (10 of my top 12 WR's in dynasty are 6-2+) but I'm not writing off guys based on their height.
Very well said. It seems ridiculous to write off a prospect like Watkins due to height.
lol did you not see what he wrote? 10 of his top 12 WR in FF are 6'2+. Go ahead draft another midget. I mean Watkins "could" be a top 12 WR in FF but it looks like Evans has a lot better chance. I looks like 83% of the top 12 WR's are 6'2 or better. This is probably to simple but hey that leaves 17% under 6'2. Of the two under 6'2 any of them over 6'1?
Here is the list of all top-ten WRs going back to the draft where Andre Johnson was taken, the 2003 draft.

The year and height/weights.

2003

Charles Johnson 6’3 and 202 lbs BUST!

2004

Larry Fitzgerald 6’3 and 225 lbs

Roy Williams 6’4 and 210 lbs BUST!

Reggie Williams 6’4 and 225 lbs BUST!

2005

Braylon Edwards 6’3 and 211 lbs BUST!

Troy Williams 6’1 and 203 lbs BUST!

Mike Williams 6’5 and 229 lbs BUST!

2007

Calvins Johnson 6’5 and 239 lbs

Tedd Ginn 5’11 and 178 lbs

2009

Darrius Heyward-Bey 6’2 and 205 lbs BUST!

Michael Crabtree 6’2 and 215 lbs

2010

A.J. Green 6’4 and 205 lbs

Julio Jones 6’3 and 220 lbs

2012

Justin Blackmon 6’1 and 210 lbs

2013

Tavon Austin 5’9 and 174 lbs

---------------------------------------

7 busts so far and 6 of the 7 were 6'2 or taller.

I'm sure you will explain this. I mean you are the guy who laughed at Sammy Watkins having a great combine where measureables are determined when you are arguing measureables being some sort of indicator on whether or not a WR should be drafted in the top-ten based on his height.

 
What can I add to this discussion that hasn't been said? I love this Watkins kid and if he's the consolation for missing out on Teddy Bridgewater, I'll be tickled pink. Give me another cup of the Sammy Watkins koolaid. :banned:

 
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Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
You're missing the point. Obviously all things being equal bigger is better, but that doesn't mean a smaller receiver can be a stud in the NFL.

I prefer big WR's (10 of my top 12 WR's in dynasty are 6-2+) but I'm not writing off guys based on their height.
Very well said. It seems ridiculous to write off a prospect like Watkins due to height.
lol did you not see what he wrote? 10 of his top 12 WR in FF are 6'2+. Go ahead draft another midget. I mean Watkins "could" be a top 12 WR in FF but it looks like Evans has a lot better chance. I looks like 83% of the top 12 WR's are 6'2 or better. This is probably to simple but hey that leaves 17% under 6'2. Of the two under 6'2 any of them over 6'1?
You seem to be too fixated on height. I get that there are a lot of big WR's in the NFL and they are doing well. There are also a lot of guys under 6'2 doing a good jot too and they were no where near the prospect Watkins was coming out.

Take a look at this list: Cobb, Harvin, Brown, Welker, Hilton, Garcon, Wright, M. Wallace, D. Jackson, T. Smith, Cruz, Shorts, Steve Smith, Austin etc..

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
You're missing the point. Obviously all things being equal bigger is better, but that doesn't mean a smaller receiver can be a stud in the NFL.

I prefer big WR's (10 of my top 12 WR's in dynasty are 6-2+) but I'm not writing off guys based on their height.
Very well said. It seems ridiculous to write off a prospect like Watkins due to height.
lol did you not see what he wrote? 10 of his top 12 WR in FF are 6'2+. Go ahead draft another midget. I mean Watkins "could" be a top 12 WR in FF but it looks like Evans has a lot better chance. I looks like 83% of the top 12 WR's are 6'2 or better. This is probably to simple but hey that leaves 17% under 6'2. Of the two under 6'2 any of them over 6'1?
Here is the list of all top-ten WRs going back to the draft where Andre Johnson was taken, the 2003 draft.

The year and height/weights.

2003

Charles Johnson 6’3 and 202 lbs BUST!

2004

Larry Fitzgerald 6’3 and 225 lbs

Roy Williams 6’4 and 210 lbs BUST!

Reggie Williams 6’4 and 225 lbs BUST!

2005

Braylon Edwards 6’3 and 211 lbs BUST!

Troy Williams 6’1 and 203 lbs BUST!

Mike Williams 6’5 and 229 lbs BUST!

2007

Calvins Johnson 6’5 and 239 lbs

Tedd Ginn 5’11 and 178 lbs

2009

Darrius Heyward-Bey 6’2 and 205 lbs BUST!

Michael Crabtree 6’2 and 215 lbs

2010

A.J. Green 6’4 and 205 lbs

Julio Jones 6’3 and 220 lbs

2012

Justin Blackmon 6’1 and 210 lbs

2013

Tavon Austin 5’9 and 174 lbs

---------------------------------------

7 busts so far and 6 of the 7 were 6'2 or taller.

I'm sure you will explain this. I mean you are the guy who laughed at Sammy Watkins having a great combine where measureables are determined when you are arguing measureables being some sort of indicator on whether or not a WR should be drafted in the top-ten based on his height.
Nice lets change the subject because we were talking about how 10 of the top 12 WR in FF are 6'2+

GJGE

It's pretty clear it helps a lot to be tall/big.

I think in Sammy Watkins case there is some recency bias going on. If Evans had ended the season with his two big games and Sammy had his early in the year we would be talking about Evans going top 5. This is media driven. Case in point somebody talking about how good of a combine Watkins had. He didn't blow the combine up. His vert is average to below average and his 40 time was slower than he was telling everybody he was going to run. One word describes his combine.

Meh

 
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good that means I'll get the best big wr prospect in this draft with the #2 pick in the draft and you can have the best small wr in the draft.
BTW, I've never said not to take Evans over Watkins. It's very close IMO.
That's not what the consensus is.My point is this. Why take a 6'0 4.4 guy at #2 overall with a draft this deep at WR? Hell you can have a 6'3 4.4 guy in the second round that has a great shot at being better anyway imo. The wr is so deep a premium shouldn't be put on Watkins. It should have the exact opposite effect on where he's drafted.

St Louis should draft

#2 OT Matthews or OT Robinson

#13 DT Aaron Donald

and in the second round they should steal Jordan Matthews if he's still there. Which I have a feeling a smart team is going to grab late in the first but he could fall to the second.

A big LOL @ any team that takes a 6'0 4.4 wr in the top 5.
We're kind of jumping around here.

I'm not sure the consensus is that Watkins is the second best player in the draft, I don't think he is likely to go there. Probably Robinson, or Clowney (if aval) or a QB through a trade up.

Watkins could go to CLE, OAK or STL after a trade down (though they might prefer Matthews).

1.13 could be Donald (I think he is gone), HCD, Dennard, Gilbert or Evans. Maybe a trade down, and an OL like Martin or XSF if they don't take a LT with the first pick.

I get that you think WR Mathews can be as good as Watkins, but that is an extreme outlier position.

If we were GMs or HCs, and the scouts of our team came back with a top 5 grade on Watkins and top 15 on Evans, a big LOL at overriding the higher grade because that WR isn't as big. :)

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
You're missing the point. Obviously all things being equal bigger is better, but that doesn't mean a smaller receiver can be a stud in the NFL.

I prefer big WR's (10 of my top 12 WR's in dynasty are 6-2+) but I'm not writing off guys based on their height.
Very well said. It seems ridiculous to write off a prospect like Watkins due to height.
lol did you not see what he wrote? 10 of his top 12 WR in FF are 6'2+. Go ahead draft another midget. I mean Watkins "could" be a top 12 WR in FF but it looks like Evans has a lot better chance. I looks like 83% of the top 12 WR's are 6'2 or better. This is probably to simple but hey that leaves 17% under 6'2. Of the two under 6'2 any of them over 6'1?
You seem to be too fixated on height. I get that there are a lot of big WR's in the NFL and they are doing well. There are also a lot of guys under 6'2 doing a good jot too and they were no where near the prospect Watkins was coming out.

Take a look at this list: Cobb, Harvin, Brown, Welker, Hilton, Garcon, Wright, M. Wallace, D. Jackson, T. Smith, Cruz, Shorts, Steve Smith, Austin etc..
Yeah I agree to a certain extent but #1 pick in FF drafts this year is Torrey Smith good? He's most likely going to end up being a top 20ish WR. He's good but this hype is insanely out of line and top 5 pick is LOL.

 
Also keep in mind the way the NFL defends the pass is a fluid situation. DB's are getting bigger not smaller.
Someone should explain to 5-10, 186 lb. Antonio Brown why he shouldn't have caught passes last year.
Yep and how tall are the other 4 in the top 5? I never said it was impossible. It's just significantly less likely.
It takes more than being tall to be a great WR.

It still comes down to who to take in THIS draft, absent those freaks. Evans isn't magically going to turn into Calvin, Julio or Andre when he isn't as fast, just because he is tall. He is not going to become Green or Bryant when he doesn't have their elite body control and ball skills, just because he is tall.

 
Bob,

I really think a case can be made for Watkins being the best player in the draft. I could make a healthy argument for Robinson and Clowney as well. All three of them sitting on super-elite tier status. Having said that, I'm hopeful that the Raiders somehow land Bridgewater because the QB position is has to be the highest priority 'get' if you don't have one. But I really think you are undervaluing Watson. Don't be surprised to see the pundits fall in love with Watson especially after the pro day writeups. He's soaring up the charts now with a bullet!... as Kasey Casem used to say.

 

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