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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
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Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Nobody is going to argue with you that Evans is a Calvin, Julio, or Andre clone. He's a big guy that has excellent deep ball tracking skills and athleticism/length to make smaller corners look silly on 50/50 throws. He is very much a system fit for a QB with a big arm that isn't afraid of taking shots downfield. His short game and even intermediate game is a little more iffy. The route running not as precise as a Watkins, and the quickness, the suddenness inside 15 yards isn't as smooth. But get this guy on deep fly's and nines and he'll make his QB's day. I love Evans but I think his current mocks are overselling his upside.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
The list shows that there are already WR's in the NFL under 6'2 that are having success. If you are a GM and you think Watkins has a ceiling higher than those guys and you are in need of a WR I don't think you LOL at it if you have a top 10 pick.
Why out of that whole list do you point out Torrey Smith? Why not point out Brown? Because he is successful? Because he is coming off a top 3 scoring fantasy football year.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
When the talk is of a draft prospect the talk isn't limited to one topic.
Watkins is 6' 3/4 tall. I don't feel his skills set would improve dramatically if he were 1.25 inches taller but you have argued the 6'2 WR rule.
Comparing Evans and Watkins stating its recency bias?
Not buying that one either.
Watkins is faster, timed faster, plays faster. He's the only WR in all college football to score twice on plays covering 95 yards or longer last year. I like Evans but Watkins isn't rated higher do to recency bias, he is better.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
WRs don't materialize out of thin air. They need to be drafted. You have been talking about the draft implicitly with the LOL at top 5 refrain, and explicitly in saying expected to be lower drafted WRs like Mathews will be as good.
You effortlessly changed the subject when it suited your purposes to ignore the Wayne mistake, or don't address the subject when asked why not throw out Rice's or Emmitt Smith's numbers.
There are different biases, like confirmation. Clearly you are only interested in data that supports the big - good, not big - bad theory and want no part of data that recently drafted big WRs could be (gasp!
) bad. That isn't easily processed by the narrow, rigid "screen" or "filter" that lower graded big WRs are better than higher graded WRs not as big.Maybe you are right, but repeating big - good and LOL top 5 is not analysis, it is a mantra. There are good and bad mantras, but if it is wrong (see the last sentence in the above paragraph), no amount of repitition will make it right.
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Milkman
Footballguy
I never stated Watkins wouldn't have success or he sucks. I don't think Watkins ceiling is higher though. We can use Brown. He had the best year out of the bunch. Again I'm not saying it doesn't happen I'm saying statistically it's less likely to happen. Watkins is def in the discussion and very well could be the top WR in this draft class. It's possible but less likely than a bigger WR becoming the best WR in this draft class. He doesn't have the size or the elite athleticism to become a top ten WR in the league. It's still possible just more unlikely.
It's funny I've heard top 5 WR in the league. Top 5 pick. He might be the best prospect in this draft. lol nope.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Is Marvin Harrison and anomaly or not? I'll address Wayne in a moment because it's pretty clear to see how good wayne would have done with an average to below average QB.Bob Magaw said:WRs don't materialize out of thin air. They need to be drafted. You have been talking about the draft implicitly with the LOL at top 5 refrain, and explicitly in saying expected to be lower drafted WRs like Mathews will be as good.Milkman said:
You effortlessly changed the subject when it suited your purposes to ignore the Wayne mistake, or don't address the subject when asked why not throw out Rice's or Emmitt Smith's numbers.
There are different biases, like confirmation. Clearly you are only interested in data that supports the big - good, not big - bad theory and want no part of data that recently drafted big WRs could be (gasp!
Maybe you are right, but repeating big - good and LOL top 5 is not analysis, it is a mantra. There are good and bad mantras, but if it is wrong (see the last sentence in the above paragraph), no amount of repitition will make it right.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Raider,Raiderfan32904 said:
I 'm not sure if I'm undervaluing Watkins (you wrote Watson but assume you meant Sammy?), I've consistently been one of his biggest advocates for Watkins in multiple threads. I noted just upthread I could see him going to CLE or OAK. It wouldn't shock me if he goes higher, some teams may give him a top 2-3 grade (no Luck in the class). More out of 2014 draft context, I think STL and JAX could go in a different direction at #2 and #3. But I'm very high on Watkins.
Agree, Bridgewater would be good for OAK, but if he isn't there (and say Bortles is also gone), not as sure Manziel (or Carr) would be better than a top 5 graded non-QB?
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
On Harrison, he isn't an anomaly based on height, yes on weight (maybe you could get back to my points, too ).
The above list we have both commented on (top historical WRs), you may recall, was sorted by HEIGHT. Let's not change the subject (wouldn't want to do that).
As to the weight, Watkins is about 30 lbs. heavier than Harrison, so even if you are concerned about a WR with Harrison-like size, that has nothing to do with Watkins.
Not changing the subject but elsewhere you dismissed Watkins speed based on the fact that he didn't take a run at 4.2 likemhemsaid Elsewhere, EBF showed in his comp BMI index, only Calvin and Andre were faster (admittedly they are all the more impressive relative to Watkins for doing it at a bigger size), so clearly he is plenty fast. He is definitely faster than Evans, and not just on the track, but his functional, game speed is unmistakably superior.
).The above list we have both commented on (top historical WRs), you may recall, was sorted by HEIGHT. Let's not change the subject (wouldn't want to do that).
As to the weight, Watkins is about 30 lbs. heavier than Harrison, so even if you are concerned about a WR with Harrison-like size, that has nothing to do with Watkins.
Not changing the subject but elsewhere you dismissed Watkins speed based on the fact that he didn't take a run at 4.2 likemhemsaid
Elsewhere, EBF showed in his comp BMI index, only Calvin and Andre were faster (admittedly they are all the more impressive relative to Watkins for doing it at a bigger size), so clearly he is plenty fast. He is definitely faster than Evans, and not just on the track, but his functional, game speed is unmistakably superior.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Ok now check out Wayne's 2011 stats. That's the year Manning missed because of his neck.On Harrison, he isn't an anomaly based on height, yes on weight (maybe you could get back to my points, too
The above list we have both commented on above (top historical WRs), you may recall, was sorted by HEIGHT. Let's not change the subject (wouldn't want to do that).
As to the weight, Watkins is about 30 lbs. heavier than Harrison, so even if you are concerned about a WR with Harrison-like size, that has nothing to do with Watkins.
Not changing the subject but elsewhere you dismissed Watkins speed based on the fact that he didn't take a run at 4.2.
75 catches 960 yards 4 TD's. This guy is like the GOAT 6'0 and under WR too. I mean he's at least in the discussion. Still think Manning didn't help him?
As far as Watkins being faster than Evans. No doubt. I agree. He better be because he "has" to create separation to win in the NFL. Evans at 6'4 230+ pounds, with long arms, and an above average vertical doesn't need separation to win in the NFL.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I've encountered several times in different threads the belief that Evans has higher upside than Watkins based specifically on the underpinning belief that he is more like the contemporary half dozen or so speed merchant giants.I'm just saying, not so fast. If he isn't those guys (has the giant but not the speed merchant part), people might be disappointed with a comp that off the mark. Let's do a better job of figuring out who he is. Than we can do a realistic comparison of Evans WR X comp with Watkins Roddy White comp (haven't heard that questioned, Xue also brought it up independently).Raiderfan32904 said:
Only at that stage could you give an intelligible explanation as to why, counter-intuitively as it may be to some, it might be possible for a WR not as big as another to be higher graded.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Going in reverse order, good job, I think it is more constructive to talk about specifics that separate Evans and Watkins. There is uncertainty with Watkins, separation could be harder to come by against NFL CBs that are more talented, faster, more athletic with better technique, but that goes for Evans, too. He proved adept with Johnny jump balls in college, but the windows are smaller in the pros. Maybe Herman Moore is a good comp for Evans, that would be pretty good, that could be better or comparable to Roddy White for Watkins. I guess I think Watkins is more likely to be White than Evans live up to the Moore comp.Ok now check out Wayne's 2011 stats. That's the year Manning missed because of his neck.75 catches 960 yards 4 TD's. This guy is like the GOAT 6'0 and under WR too. I mean he's at least in the discussion. Still think Manning didn't help him?On Harrison, he isn't an anomaly based on height, yes on weight (maybe you could get back to my points, too
The above list we have both commented on above (top historical WRs), you may recall, was sorted by HEIGHT. Let's not change the subject (wouldn't want to do that).
As to the weight, Watkins is about 30 lbs. heavier than Harrison, so even if you are concerned about a WR with Harrison-like size, that has nothing to do with Watkins.
Not changing the subject but elsewhere you dismissed Watkins speed based on the fact that he didn't take a run at 4.2.
As far as Watkins being faster than Evans. No doubt. I agree. He better be because he "has" to create separation to win in the NFL. Evans at 6'4 230+ pounds, with long arms, and an above average vertical doesn't need separation to win in the NFL.
Some of the top seasons by reception were put up by Harrison and Welker not because they are big, but quick and precise route runners (that isn't necessarily Watkins, either, just illustrating the principal that smaller WRs can excel for different reasons).
As to Wayne's 2011 stats, why didn't you say we could only include stats put up by one of the worst QB situations in the past decade in which IND may have been tanking for Luck, I wouldn't have brought it up.
I don't think that kind of cherry picking of confirmation bias stats is any better of a strategy than throwing out stats due to a good QB. Harrison isn't the only WR to benefit from a good QB.Purely in the interest of consistency, shouldn't you also lose Rice on the same basis. How about Holt and Bruce?
Milkman
Footballguy
LOL they could both bust. hahahaha
As far as cherry picking Wayne you were pushing hard on Wayne saying Wayne had his best year without Manning. You were suggesting Wayne and Harrison didn't benefit from Manning. I disagree. I think it's pretty clear they both did.
Take Andre Johnson's year this year. Pretty bad QB situation. That's cherry picking to though. It's probably not productive for this debate........
As far as cherry picking Wayne you were pushing hard on Wayne saying Wayne had his best year without Manning. You were suggesting Wayne and Harrison didn't benefit from Manning. I disagree. I think it's pretty clear they both did.
Take Andre Johnson's year this year. Pretty bad QB situation. That's cherry picking to though. It's probably not productive for this debate........
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matuski
Footballguy
And none of those are the players I would expect in a top 5 pick of an NFL draft... maybe Harvin would be an exception sans injury.Carter_Can_Fly said:
Calvin, Fitz, Johnson, Green, Marshal, Julio, Demarius... maybe Dez.
All it comes down to for me, will Watkins be the guy every game where you know he is going to go up and make the game-breaking catch that nobody else on the field can? I don't think so, I do think he will be like so many other productive WRs in the league along the lines of those you list.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Sammy Watkins is the most cant miss prospect since Andrew Luck.
There is no way this kid isnt top 10 in catches and yards in 2-3 years
There is no way this kid isnt top 10 in catches and yards in 2-3 years
Milkman
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
There are about three layers of scouting information in this immediate tangent, so we should drill down and excavate the different respective senses and meanings to avoid confusion.matuski said:
1) It was prompted by a statement from Mayock that Watkins was one of the best WRs prospects he has evaluated in the past decade (something to that effect).
2) Balance (who you seem to think similarly to
) threw out a comment about one hypothetical scout or another stating that often.3) I talked about the last time I recall this kind of consensus on a WR being a rare, special prospect was in the 2011 class with Green and Jones. Most scouts think Watkins isn't as good as Green or Jones, imo. If they did, they might phrase it "as good" more often, but they generally use the word since. You can call that vague, but it does impart specific information. If true, it means he is the best WR prospect after Green and Jones in the past four drafts. I also mentioned before the 2011 draft, Calvin was the last draft before that I can recall with this level of consensus that the WR is a rare, special prospect (I don't recall it with Thomas or Bryant, etc.).
Mayock, IMO doesn't say every year this is one of the best WR prospects in a decade. If I am wrong I'll gladly stand corrected on the point and concede it in the thread. So, if that is accurate, by definition, Mayock is touting WRs on that level more sparingly. How much more so? Every two drafts? Three? Four (which would span from 2011, the Green/Jones draft)? Even if it was every other draft, you are still taking about a select group of five or so WRs in a decade (maybe more, as Green and Jones went in the same draft, but sometimes 3-4 years go by without a WR prospect as rare, like the interval between Calvin in 2007 and 2011). Not sure if that is vague, but even if we don't nail down exactly HOW impressive that is in a decade span with Spock-like precision, it would be impressive to be one of the five or so top prospects in a decade. If that isn't impressive, how rare does a prospect have to be to get our attention or earn our respect? If only once or twice a decade-type prospects, that is IMO a draconian standard
As to your, or maybe it was Balance's mention that "some" scouts say something like one of the best WRs in the past decade all the time (and presumably should be dismissed on this basis), I'm not talking about some trendy Eskimo or Yanamano Rain Forest Indian scout with a lot of hits on his site. Any yokel could say anything.
That gets back to my point. It makes sense to look at the consensus (not some Eskimo scout). I'll again gladly stand corrected and concede the point, but I don't think there is anything like a consensus of this scope that Watkins is getting in 2014, on a yearly basis. Or an every other year basis. Even if it is vague to not know exactly where he stands in the past decade (top five, top six best WRs of the past decade?), it conveys enough of a sense of how rare he is to at least have an approximate sense of his value.
Short of a Mayock historian or scouting consensus historian familiar with every utterance and scrap of information in the past decade, we may not get exactitude on that question, that could be an unrealistic standard. But to me, that wasn't the issue. It was, is this said that often (and I don't mean by a random Eskimo scout) that it renders those kinds of statements useless. I don't think the statement by Mayock or this kind of consensus happens with that kind of frequency, it is more rare. Anyways, rare ENOUGH to convey useful information.
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Bob Magaw said:Were Crabtree, Nicks, Roddy White and Reggie Wayne destined to be WR2s? They are "small" by your definition. If not, what separated them AT A COMPARABLE STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT?
When I say "small" I'm talking about slot/speed/possession/underneath receivers, with "big" being more deep/jumpball/Redzone threats. Percy Harvin and Calvin Johnson have completely different jobs on sunday while both are considered wide receivers, so that's why I group the that way.
Reggie Wayne is a "small" receiver to me considering what he does best. While I could say having two of the best QB prospects ever throwing the ball to him helped Wayne's case, just like how I said Watkins situation will mean everything, I won't. I seen Wayne literally take over games singlehandedly and carry the passing attack when needed in recent years. He's great. I won't attempt to debate that. Pre-Luck he was a great 1a/1b WR playing with Manning to me so I bought in. Pair Watkins with a once in generation QB and I'll fight for him with you. Put him in Torrey Smith's shoes and I'll let you have him at his market value.
We'd have to look within the margins at the others. Nicks is a bit taller, has massive size hands, and has a better vert in comparison to Watkins. In their inaugural college season Nicks hauled in 54% of his teams TD passes while Watkins caught 30% of his teams while playing on a more pass happy offense. It's safe to say Nicks would fit into the "big" bucket much better than the "small" one. To use a football cliché, "it's a game of inches."
When you're 6"+ and 205+ I'll see how you fit in as a "big" WR, for the record, but another red-flag would lead to another downgrade like Torrey Smith's small hands. I've rejected the Roddy White comp as well. Even though they have virtually the same body type, lets look within the margins. White has a 40"+ vert compared to Watkins 34" vert. White also caught 50%+ of his teams TDs in his final season. I've said it before, with all things considered White grades out just fine as a "big" WR if that's wht you need him to do on Sunday. He showed he can get up and catch TDs at a "elite" rate in pads and in his undies, Watkins not so.
I don't know Crabs numbers off hand. He's not really one of "my guys." I'll check but I hop you get my drift.
Again, maybe the scouts look deeper than just grading all the WR prospects, or any position for that matter, strictly by height and weight. It would make scouting a lot easier, but than anybody capable of counting could do it. Stephen Hill is tall, can run like a deer and jump out of the stadium. But he can't catch and he can't play, so all his physical tools and athletic gifts come to nothing. There are big WRs that are good, bad and average, same with average size WRs and small WRs (Steve Smith, Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, etc. being good examples in the latter category). There aren't dozens of WRs like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. One option is to wait for years for the right opportunity to land one like them. Some teams may opt to not wait for years. If those teams agreed with you that later WRs were just as good, just because they are comparable height and weight, I'm sure they would do that. If they don't agree with that rationale, it is presumably because they see something in his skill set that separates him from WRs available later.
I said it pre-combine and I'll say it now, supply and demand. It's simple economics. There is a number of "small" WRs in this draft that will saturate the market. It's not that Watkins isn't a great prospect, it's that these other guys are too.
Watkins plays the ball in the air better and is much stronger after the catch, so those lacking attributes in Torrey Smith that cause him to be a sub-optimal WR1 aren't applicable to Watkins. All the above WRs drew top CBs at some point and did fine, not obvious why it would be different for him? You are comparing him to WRs he isn't like and leaving out WRs that he is like.
I agree Clowney, Donald (I am probably in the minority in thinking he belongs in the top 10 conversation) and the OTs are great prospects, I just think Watkins is, too. Watkins won't necessarily go before Clowney and both of the top LTs. If he does, maybe that team will grade Watkins comparably to some of the others on your list, and are in need of a WR more. If they have comparable grades, it wouldn't be a positonal reach. If he went to CLE, a possible destination as high as 1.4, he wouldn't have to be the WR1 opposite Gordon.
Compared to what we are hearing from scouts, Watkins is a legit top 5-10 candidate. Maybe you are right, but it is definitely a contrarian, outlier position. In recent years, Crabtree, Blackmon and Austin were picked in the top 10, all similar size or smaller than Watkins. If JAX had not taken Blackmon, STL would have (Fisher slammed his glasses down with the pick). If STL hadn't traded up for Austin, NYJ reportedly interested in taking him. Clearly, there are multiple teams in the NFL that don't think being 6'0"+ and 210 lbs. is a death blow to the chances of being a top 10 pick and a future WR1.
I can't say I disagree. But look at what you passed up for Crabtree, Blackmon and Austin, even just at WR. You could have had Nicks, Alshon and Allen just to name a few off the top of my head. Pass up Matthews and Evans and we could be saying the same thing about Watkins in 2-3 years if Watkins career trajectory is like Torrey Smith's (which isn't as bad as some make it seem, especially him as a Terrapin) while Evans and Matthews look like AJ and Julio in output.
If Watkins is *SMALL*, what is average? 6'5" 230-240 lbs? Calvin Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans?
Roughly 6'2 220 would be the avg of the #1 FF WRs. RotoViz has some stuff on that actually. They call it a "WR footprint" I think.
* I think we might be mixing up and jumbling together different subjects and conversations. Compared to the elite WRs, some might call Watkins "small" compared to Calvin Johnson. But you seemed to be referring to all WRs in the draft. By that measure and standard, calling him small seems an exaggeration. Do you really think 6'2"-6'3"+ and 215-220 lbs is the "average" size of an NFL WR?
No, it's above avg and therefor rare.
Not throwing eggs, any more than I think you are. If you disagree with what I'm saying, you don't pretend to agree just to go along. I'm no different. By putting different takes out there, others can decide if one makes more sense, or some kind of blend and middle ground best explains the evidence. I appreciate your role in the process everybody might benefit from in sharpening our collective thinking about these matters.
Not you at all. This is the reason I come back for more. My blade looks a little sharper. Stupid stuff like "have you seen him play" pisses me off when I probably watch as much/more FB as anyone. I just don't trust my eyes as much as some might. As if a whole short-essay worth of content and 2000+ post isn't enough to figure out if I'm any good at this or consistent with my thought process. I found the ignore feature last night so back to talking FB.
And FF is getting tougher and tougher by the year with all of the information available. You have to find a edge somewhere. Letting mainstream make your league mates believe Tavon Austin is the next Percy Harvin for FF is one. I don't trust their eyes either.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Sure they could both bust. More likely neither. The question is who is more likely to be better, looking deeper than just size.Of the two years Wayne didn't have Manning, why gloss over 2012 just because it doesn't make the point you want? Why emphasise 2011. It is like you need to resort to one of the worst QB situations of the decade to find more defensible ground, when you didn't care for the 2012 data. That is cherry picking.
Again, to be consistent, don't you have to throw out Rice? Holt and Bruce? How many others (and seasons) will you throw out to make your point?
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Good post.You definitely make me think harder and help me to be clearer in articulating my positions, so that is a good thing, and I mean it as a compliment. I respect your well reasoned thoughts and also appreciate the civil tenor.Bob Magaw said:Were Crabtree, Nicks, Roddy White and Reggie Wayne destined to be WR2s? They are "small" by your definition. If not, what separated them AT A COMPARABLE STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT? When I say "small" I'm talking about slot/speed/possession/underneath receivers, with "big" being more deep/jumpball/Redzone threats. Percy Harvin and Calvin Johnson have completely different jobs on sunday while both are considered wide receivers, so that's why I group the that way.
Reggie Wayne is a "small" receiver to me considering what he does best. While I could say having two of the best QB prospects ever throwing the ball to him helped Wayne's case, just like how I said Watkins situation will mean everything, I won't. I seen Wayne literally take over games singlehandedly and carry the passing attack when needed in recent years. He's great. I won't attempt to debate that. Pre-Luck he was a great 1a/1b WR playing with Manning to me so I bought in. Pair Watkins with a once in generation QB and I'll fight for him with you. Put him in Torrey Smith's shoes and I'll let you have him at his market value.
We'd have to look within the margins at the others. Nicks is a bit taller, has massive size hands, and has a better vert in comparison to Watkins. In their inaugural college season Nicks hauled in 54% of his teams TD passes while Watkins caught 30% of his teams while playing on a more pass happy offense. It's safe to say Nicks would fit into the "big" bucket much better than the "small" one. To use a football cliché, "it's a game of inches."
When you're 6"+ and 205+ I'll see how you fit in as a "big" WR, for the record, but another red-flag would lead to another downgrade like Torrey Smith's small hands. I've rejected the Roddy White comp as well. Even though they have virtually the same body type, lets look within the margins. White has a 40"+ vert compared to Watkins 34" vert. White also caught 50%+ of his teams TDs in his final season. I've said it before, with all things considered White grades out just fine as a "big" WR if that's wht you need him to do on Sunday. He showed he can get up and catch TDs at a "elite" rate in pads and in his undies, Watkins not so.
I don't know Crabs numbers off hand. He's not really one of "my guys." I'll check but I hop you get my drift.
Again, maybe the scouts look deeper than just grading all the WR prospects, or any position for that matter, strictly by height and weight. It would make scouting a lot easier, but than anybody capable of counting could do it. Stephen Hill is tall, can run like a deer and jump out of the stadium. But he can't catch and he can't play, so all his physical tools and athletic gifts come to nothing. There are big WRs that are good, bad and average, same with average size WRs and small WRs (Steve Smith, Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, etc. being good examples in the latter category). There aren't dozens of WRs like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. One option is to wait for years for the right opportunity to land one like them. Some teams may opt to not wait for years. If those teams agreed with you that later WRs were just as good, just because they are comparable height and weight, I'm sure they would do that. If they don't agree with that rationale, it is presumably because they see something in his skill set that separates him from WRs available later. I said it pre-combine and I'll say it now, supply and demand. It's simple economics. There is a number of "small" WRs in this draft that will saturate the market. It's not that Watkins isn't a great prospect, it's that these other guys are too.
Watkins plays the ball in the air better and is much stronger after the catch, so those lacking attributes in Torrey Smith that cause him to be a sub-optimal WR1 aren't applicable to Watkins. All the above WRs drew top CBs at some point and did fine, not obvious why it would be different for him? You are comparing him to WRs he isn't like and leaving out WRs that he is like.
I agree Clowney, Donald (I am probably in the minority in thinking he belongs in the top 10 conversation) and the OTs are great prospects, I just think Watkins is, too. Watkins won't necessarily go before Clowney and both of the top LTs. If he does, maybe that team will grade Watkins comparably to some of the others on your list, and are in need of a WR more. If they have comparable grades, it wouldn't be a positonal reach. If he went to CLE, a possible destination as high as 1.4, he wouldn't have to be the WR1 opposite Gordon.
Compared to what we are hearing from scouts, Watkins is a legit top 5-10 candidate. Maybe you are right, but it is definitely a contrarian, outlier position. In recent years, Crabtree, Blackmon and Austin were picked in the top 10, all similar size or smaller than Watkins. If JAX had not taken Blackmon, STL would have (Fisher slammed his glasses down with the pick). If STL hadn't traded up for Austin, NYJ reportedly interested in taking him. Clearly, there are multiple teams in the NFL that don't think being 6'0"+ and 210 lbs. is a death blow to the chances of being a top 10 pick and a future WR1. I can't say I disagree. But look at what you passed up for Crabtree, Blackmon and Austin, even just at WR. You could have had Nicks, Alshon and Allen just to name a few off the top of my head. Pass up Matthews and Evans and we could be saying the same thing about Watkins in 2-3 years if Watkins career trajectory is like Torrey Smith's (which isn't as bad as some make it seem, especially him as a Terrapin) while Evans and Matthews look like AJ and Julio in output.
If Watkins is *SMALL*, what is average? 6'5" 230-240 lbs? Calvin Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans?
* I think we might be mixing up and jumbling together different subjects and conversations. Compared to the elite WRs, some might call Watkins "small" compared to Calvin Johnson. But you seemed to be referring to all WRs in the draft. By that measure and standard, calling him small seems an exaggeration. Do you really think 6'2"-6'3"+ and 215-220 lbs is the "average" size of an NFL WR?No, it's above avg and therefor rare.
Not throwing eggs, any more than I think you are. If you disagree with what I'm saying, you don't pretend to agree just to go along. I'm no different. By putting different takes out there, others can decide if one makes more sense, or some kind of blend and middle ground best explains the evidence. I appreciate your role in the process everybody might benefit from in sharpening our collective thinking about these matters.Not you at all. This is the reason I come back for more. My blade looks a little sharper. Stupid stuff like "have you seen him play" pisses me off when I probably watch as much/more FB as anyone. I just don't trust my eyes as much as some might. As if a whole short-essay worth of content and 2000+ post isn't enough to figure out if I'm any good at this or consistent with my thought process. I found the ignore feature last night so back to talking FB.
And FF is getting tougher and tougher by the year with all of the information available. You have to find a edge somewhere. Letting mainstream make your league mates believe Tavon Austin is the next Percy Harvin for FF is one. I don't trust their eyes either.
I think we got to the root of two differences which aren't really differences.
You were calling Watkins small in a functional/role sense, I meant it in an actual size sense, so I was puzzled by calling him small instead of at least average size, if not technically bigger than strictly average (league median?). Not sure I agree, but at least I know where you are coming from.
The other disconnect is I thought you were talking about all WRs in the daft, not the elite WRs already in the league. From my sense, Watkins is at least average, not small, but from your sense, he is small by THAT comparison. I agree when qualified in your sense.
Whether those reading the thread find your points more compelling, or mine, or a mix, the PROCESS of you maybe making me think of something new (by exploring what is in the margin, well put), or vice verce, or additional people prompting and spurring new thoughts in others, can hopefully be useful and make us just a little better informed than we would have been without the thread, and therefore worth the effort in bridging the gaps in our respective understanding.
Keep up the good work.
* Mayock mentioned Watkins stood on his Combine for the speed/explosiveness tests and agility drills, but looked great getting put through the paces as a WR, got into and out of his breaks easily. He said top 5 pick in any draft.
One advantage to a big WR that comes to mind, all things being equal (though they rarely are), is that in the current climate with rules that favor offense (except SEA inexplicably), except for the very best route runners that can always get open, and against the very best CBs (like Sherman) who can shut down almost anybody, it ought to help make it even easier getting more advantageous, favorable position against the DBs downfield, in effect leveraging their size advantage even more due to the changed rules.
But than with less Mel Blount-force trauma-type coverages, that would seemingly also enable the speed WRs to get downfield faster, so that could be an equalizer.
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cstu
Footballguy
Speed, quickness, agility, hands, strength, toughness...other than him being too short
he's a perfect WR.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Yep, that about sums it up.Speed, quickness, agility, hands, strength, toughness...other than him being too short
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Reggie Wayne put up 75/960/4 at age 33 with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky under center. If you think this proves anything, then I'd love to hear your thoughts on 6'3" Larry Fitzgerald after he put up 71/798/4 at age 29 with Skelton/Kolb/Lindley under center. Or on Randy Moss after his Oakland tenure.Ok now check out Wayne's 2011 stats. That's the year Manning missed because of his neck.On Harrison, he isn't an anomaly based on height, yes on weight (maybe you could get back to my points, too
The above list we have both commented on above (top historical WRs), you may recall, was sorted by HEIGHT. Let's not change the subject (wouldn't want to do that).
As to the weight, Watkins is about 30 lbs. heavier than Harrison, so even if you are concerned about a WR with Harrison-like size, that has nothing to do with Watkins.
Not changing the subject but elsewhere you dismissed Watkins speed based on the fact that he didn't take a run at 4.2.
75 catches 960 yards 4 TD's. This guy is like the GOAT 6'0 and under WR too. I mean he's at least in the discussion. Still think Manning didn't help him?
As far as Watkins being faster than Evans. No doubt. I agree. He better be because he "has" to create separation to win in the NFL. Evans at 6'4 230+ pounds, with long arms, and an above average vertical doesn't need separation to win in the NFL.
There's no question that Peyton Manning helped Reggie Wayne. Peyton Manning is perhaps the best quarterback to ever play the game. There's no question that Montana and Young helped Rice. If you want to suggest that Reggie Wayne isn't an elite WR because he "only" put up 1,000 yards receiving on a 2-14 team with some of the worst quartback play in recent memory, then I'd be curious to see if you give the same treatment to Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Cris Carter, and a lot of the other "big" receivers who put up sub-1000 yard seasons in crappy situations.
Also, there's no way Wayne is even in the discussion for the greatest 6' and under WR in history. Hell, he doesn't even make my top 5. Alworth has the GOAT distinction on lockdown, and brooks no discussion. Largent is pretty clearly ahead of Wayne, and Marvin Harrison is obviously better, as evidenced by the fact that he was the top dog when they shared the field. I'd take Holt, Steve Smith, and Tim Brown, too. Wayne might make my top 10.
ETA: Forgot about Sterling Sharpe. 6'0", 207 pounds, and the only guy who was more dominant than Jerry Rice in his prime. He'd make my top 5 6'-and-under WR list, with Alworth, Largent, Harrison, and Smith. Sterling could score some touchdowns, too.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah you're kind of taking it out of context. Another poster basically said Wayne had his best year without Manning. He was implying Manning didn't make Harrison and Wayne better.Reggie Wayne put up 75/960/4 at age 33 with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky under center. If you think this proves anything, then I'd love to hear your thoughts on 6'3" Larry Fitzgerald after he put up 71/798/4 at age 29 with Skelton/Kolb/Lindley under center. Or on Randy Moss after his Oakland tenure.Ok now check out Wayne's 2011 stats. That's the year Manning missed because of his neck.On Harrison, he isn't an anomaly based on height, yes on weight (maybe you could get back to my points, too
The above list we have both commented on above (top historical WRs), you may recall, was sorted by HEIGHT. Let's not change the subject (wouldn't want to do that).
As to the weight, Watkins is about 30 lbs. heavier than Harrison, so even if you are concerned about a WR with Harrison-like size, that has nothing to do with Watkins.
Not changing the subject but elsewhere you dismissed Watkins speed based on the fact that he didn't take a run at 4.2.
75 catches 960 yards 4 TD's. This guy is like the GOAT 6'0 and under WR too. I mean he's at least in the discussion. Still think Manning didn't help him?
As far as Watkins being faster than Evans. No doubt. I agree. He better be because he "has" to create separation to win in the NFL. Evans at 6'4 230+ pounds, with long arms, and an above average vertical doesn't need separation to win in the NFL.
I'd argue Manning had a bigger impact on both those WR red zone efficiency than anything else. Which is really what sets Big WR's apart from small WR. They're both good/great small WR.
If you guys want to keep thinking Watkins is the best prospect in this draft and a can't miss elite WR. More polished bigger Percy Harvin who's going to lead the league in yards and be a red zone monster. LOL I guess it's possible. Watkins is a first round WR no doubt. Top 5? Meh
What do you guys think of DeAndre Hopkins? Should he have been drafted top 5? Is he a can't miss top 5 elite WR?
Milkman
Footballguy
I can't take credit for this I got it from somewhere else but it's something to think about.
Same offense same QB
7.8 rec., 112.6 yards, 0.92 TDs per game = Watkins (13 games in 2013)
6.3 rec., 108.0 yards, 1.38 TDs per game = DeAndre Hopkins (13 games in 2012)
Bad comparison, good thread. Watkins will be decent, never a RZ machine but he'll have that outlier year where is totals are pretty high. I am honestly worried about him staying healthy. I don't think there'll be as much "garbage yards" as he saw in college.
But to me, I see a more athletic Michael Crabtree.
But to me, I see a more athletic Michael Crabtree.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Yeah, no, he didn't take it out of context, and that isn't what I said.Yeah you're kind of taking it out of context. Another poster basically said Wayne had his best year without Manning. He was implying Manning didn't make Harrison and Wayne better.I'd argue Manning had a bigger impact on both those WR red zone efficiency than anything else. Which is really what sets Big WR's apart from small WR. They're both good/great small WR.Reggie Wayne put up 75/960/4 at age 33 with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky under center. If you think this proves anything, then I'd love to hear your thoughts on 6'3" Larry Fitzgerald after he put up 71/798/4 at age 29 with Skelton/Kolb/Lindley under center. Or on Randy Moss after his Oakland tenure.Ok now check out Wayne's 2011 stats. That's the year Manning missed because of his neck.75 catches 960 yards 4 TD's. This guy is like the GOAT 6'0 and under WR too. I mean he's at least in the discussion. Still think Manning didn't help him?On Harrison, he isn't an anomaly based on height, yes on weight (maybe you could get back to my points, too
The above list we have both commented on above (top historical WRs), you may recall, was sorted by HEIGHT. Let's not change the subject (wouldn't want to do that).
As to the weight, Watkins is about 30 lbs. heavier than Harrison, so even if you are concerned about a WR with Harrison-like size, that has nothing to do with Watkins.
Not changing the subject but elsewhere you dismissed Watkins speed based on the fact that he didn't take a run at 4.2.
As far as Watkins being faster than Evans. No doubt. I agree. He better be because he "has" to create separation to win in the NFL. Evans at 6'4 230+ pounds, with long arms, and an above average vertical doesn't need separation to win in the NFL.
If you guys want to keep thinking Watkins is the best prospect in this draft and a can't miss elite WR. More polished bigger Percy Harvin who's going to lead the league in yards and be a red zone monster. LOL I guess it's possible. Watkins is a first round WR no doubt. Top 5? Meh
What do you guys think of DeAndre Hopkins? Should he have been drafted top 5? Is he a can't miss top 5 elite WR?
You wanted to "throw out" Wayne and Harrison from a group of WRs who were in the top 15 historically (note that wasn't a historical red zone monster list
), bizarrely, because Manning was his QB.I than pointed out that he had one of his best (not best - reread it) seasons in 2012 without Manning, which is true. You didn't like the implications of that, so you switched to 2011, and arbitrarily cherry picking abandon only wanted to discuss Harrison without Manning if it involved a season with one of the worst QB situations in the past decade, which was noted by two different people, for obvious reasons. You were also asked by two different people (by me several times) isn't it arbitrary to not throw out Rice, Holt, Bruce and every QB with a good QB, again, for completely obvious reasons. You arbitrarily didn't answer.
When somebody wanted to bring up all the tall WRs drafted that busted, even though you had been talking about the draft throughout the thread, that was called "changing the subject". More cherry picking.
Is that the actual context you are referring to?
Why again not throw out Rice, too, if you aren't going to be arbitrary? Didn't he have a good QB situation, too? Did Montana and Young "make Rice". Or are WRs only "made by the QB" when they are Watkins height or shorter on the top 15 list, to help make your point that only giant WRs are good? Has it occurred to you that it isn't mutually exclusive that Manning and Wayne could both be good (what else could you conclude from 2012 when MANNING DIDN'T EVEN PLAY WITH WAYNE?).I guess if Watkins does well, it will be because he "was made" by his QB? But if he doesn't, it will because he wasn't very good, which you knew already, because of course only giant WRs can succeed on their own.
Hopkins didn't go in the top 5 (or 10 or 15 or 20 or 25), where Watkins is approximately graded at. Maybe scouts were looking at other factors, like Watkins edge in speed (4.43 at combine, Hopkins nearly 1.5 tenths of a second slower at his combine with a 4.57)?
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Milkman
Footballguy
You were implying Manning didn't make Wayne better. You picked the 2012 season as proof. At least that's the way I took it. Maybe you weren't implying that and you can clarify that. I don't think I ever said Wayne or Harrison sucked.Yeah, no, he didn't take it out of context, and that isn't what I said.Yeah you're kind of taking it out of context. Another poster basically said Wayne had his best year without Manning. He was implying Manning didn't make Harrison and Wayne better.I'd argue Manning had a bigger impact on both those WR red zone efficiency than anything else. Which is really what sets Big WR's apart from small WR. They're both good/great small WR.Reggie Wayne put up 75/960/4 at age 33 with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky under center. If you think this proves anything, then I'd love to hear your thoughts on 6'3" Larry Fitzgerald after he put up 71/798/4 at age 29 with Skelton/Kolb/Lindley under center. Or on Randy Moss after his Oakland tenure.Ok now check out Wayne's 2011 stats. That's the year Manning missed because of his neck.75 catches 960 yards 4 TD's. This guy is like the GOAT 6'0 and under WR too. I mean he's at least in the discussion. Still think Manning didn't help him?On Harrison, he isn't an anomaly based on height, yes on weight (maybe you could get back to my points, too
The above list we have both commented on above (top historical WRs), you may recall, was sorted by HEIGHT. Let's not change the subject (wouldn't want to do that).
As to the weight, Watkins is about 30 lbs. heavier than Harrison, so even if you are concerned about a WR with Harrison-like size, that has nothing to do with Watkins.
Not changing the subject but elsewhere you dismissed Watkins speed based on the fact that he didn't take a run at 4.2.
As far as Watkins being faster than Evans. No doubt. I agree. He better be because he "has" to create separation to win in the NFL. Evans at 6'4 230+ pounds, with long arms, and an above average vertical doesn't need separation to win in the NFL.
If you guys want to keep thinking Watkins is the best prospect in this draft and a can't miss elite WR. More polished bigger Percy Harvin who's going to lead the league in yards and be a red zone monster. LOL I guess it's possible. Watkins is a first round WR no doubt. Top 5? Meh
What do you guys think of DeAndre Hopkins? Should he have been drafted top 5? Is he a can't miss top 5 elite WR?
You wanted to "throw out" Wayne and Harrison from a group of WRs who were in the top 15 historically (note that wasn't a historical red zone monster list
I than pointed out that he had one of his best (not best - reread it) seasons in 2012 without Manning, which is true. You didn't like the implications of that, so you switched to 2011, and arbitrarily cherry picking abandon only wanted to discuss Harrison without Manning if it involved a season with one of the worst QB situations in the past decade, which was noted by two different people, for obvious reasons. You were also asked by two different people (by me several times) isn't it arbitrary to not throw out Rice, Holt, Bruce and every QB with a good QB, again, for completely obvious reasons. You arbitrarily didn't answer.
When somebody wanted to bring up all the tall WRs drafted that busted, even though you had been talking about the draft throughout the thread, that was called "changing the subject". More cherry picking.
Is that the actual context you are referring to?
I guess if Watkins does well, it will be because he "was made" by his QB? But if he doesn't, it will because he wasn't very good, which you knew already, because of course only giant WRs can succeed on their own.
Hopkins didn't go in the top 5 (or 10 or 15 or 20 or 25), where Watkins is approximately graded at. Maybe scouts were looking at other factors, like Watkins edge in speed (4.43 at combine, Hopkins nearly 1.5 tenths of a second slower at his combine with a 4.57)?
Like I said if you guys want to draft the #1 small wr in front of the #1 Big WR go ahead.
Hopkins put the same numbers up Watkins did in the same offense with the same QB. Actually from a fantasy perspective slightly better depending on scoring. I was just merely throwing that out there because one would think, if Watkins is truly an elite prospect, he would have done better than a late first round pick who runs a 4.57 40. Especially considering they ran the same offense and played with the same QB.
You know now that I think about it..........Hopkins is a little taller though.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I wasn't implying anything, just stating the obvious that it makes no sense to "throw out" Wayne among the historical top 15 WR list upthread due to Manning "making him" when Wayne had one of his best seasons in 2012, when Manning was in Denver. Could you explain what Manning had to do with 2012?
Do you see how it is arbitrary and cherry picking to not throw out every WR with a good QB from that list? Are you not throwing out Rice because he is taller than Watkins and that fits the confirmation bias?
If Watkins grades higher than Evans, don't be surprised if he is drafted before Evans. We're mixing different levels of discourse in the thread, sometimes talking about the NFL draft, at others fantasy drafts.
One answer to your last question. The year before Hopkins last season, Watkins was coming off the only season in NCAA history in which a true freshman WR was AP first team All American (and only fourth period, with RBs Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk and Adrian Peterson, pretty good company - Hopkins didn't do that [[LOL, no giant WRs did, either]], scouts look at a body of work, not just what a prospect did their last season). He might have seen extra attention as a result, which could have helped Hopkins.
In other words, Hopkins had Watkins across from him in 2012, but needless to say, Watkins didn't have the benefit of playing across from Watkins in 2013.
Do you see how it is arbitrary and cherry picking to not throw out every WR with a good QB from that list? Are you not throwing out Rice because he is taller than Watkins and that fits the confirmation bias?
If Watkins grades higher than Evans, don't be surprised if he is drafted before Evans. We're mixing different levels of discourse in the thread, sometimes talking about the NFL draft, at others fantasy drafts.
One answer to your last question. The year before Hopkins last season, Watkins was coming off the only season in NCAA history in which a true freshman WR was AP first team All American (and only fourth period, with RBs Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk and Adrian Peterson, pretty good company - Hopkins didn't do that [[LOL, no giant WRs did, either]], scouts look at a body of work, not just what a prospect did their last season). He might have seen extra attention as a result, which could have helped Hopkins.
In other words, Hopkins had Watkins across from him in 2012, but needless to say, Watkins didn't have the benefit of playing across from Watkins in 2013.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
All of those above are true but its his instincts that stand out to me. He just seems to understand the flow of the game.Speed, quickness, agility, hands, strength, toughness...other than him being too short
cstu
Footballguy
I was going to add in intelligence but the list was getting pretty long.All of those above are true but its his instincts that stand out to me. He just seems to understand the flow of the game.Speed, quickness, agility, hands, strength, toughness...other than him being too short
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I agree with you Bob, about the "not so fast" part. It's important to evaluate a draft prospect not only on the measurements and physical accomplishments but also by the tape. We need to benchmark the skillset of the player and find a reasonable NFL comp like you said where Evans = WR X and Watkins = WR Z. You know that I'm already on record that I think both will have brilliant NFL careers. But it's sloppy to end it there. Within the skillsets, you will have a player that has all the measures of a Steve Breaston or a Roddy White, or a Jonathan Baldwin or a Justin Blackmon. At one time or another it was hard to distinguish between these guys.I've encountered several times in different threads the belief that Evans has higher upside than Watkins based specifically on the underpinning belief that he is more like the contemporary half dozen or so speed merchant giants.I'm just saying, not so fast. If he isn't those guys (has the giant but not the speed merchant part), people might be disappointed with a comp that off the mark. Let's do a better job of figuring out who he is. Than we can do a realistic comparison of Evans WR X comp with Watkins Roddy White comp (haven't heard that questioned, Xue also brought it up independently).Raiderfan32904 said:
Only at that stage could you give an intelligible explanation as to why, counter-intuitively as it may be to some, it might be possible for a WR not as big as another to be higher graded.
At this point in time, all we have is what our eyes are telling us. And the discussion is as you noted works best when a thousand different eyes are looking at the same thing. If we aren't afraid of expressing what we observe on tape, the truth will eventually come out in a strange synthesis of opinions, and hopefully a lot of the bias will be filtered out.
I tell you what I see in Watson: Elite body control, instincts, eye-hand coordination, balance - especially relevant with his keeping his hips square when straddling the sideline. He seems to have suction cups for hands and the ball literally looks like it's being sucked into his paw. Cat like reflexes and can box out defenders from INT's when the ball is uncatchable (to him). Super fast and quick out of breaks, very sudden. Runs excellent routes and can make defenders look silly. The knock on him at Clemson was he had a limited route tree, but I have no doubts that he has the physical tools and smarts to learn NFL route running. I really can't find any flaws worth discussing. Like I said before, I see Watson as belonging to his own tier with the WR prospects, the super elite tier. I guess the only thing he lacks is height, but that is being waaaay overblown. It's like trying to knock a straight A student for getting a 98% grade when he should have gotten a 100. Pretty low brow and petty if you ask me.
I tell you what I see in Evans: Big, prototypical stud WR size and better football speed than most people give him credit for. It's really just enough speed to get separation and that is all that matters imo. He's not a burner, but he doesn't have to be with the rest of his natural tools. When the ball is thrown his direction, his length and arm span give him a tremendous catch radius, and he knows what to do when it's coming his way. He does a lot of things in the split second of the eye. He boxes out his defender, like a power forward does on a low post alley oop play. He always knows just the perfect instant when to elevate and then uses his body, elbows, and physicality to take over at the top of the route. Finally, he puts away the ball with his outstretched hands and catches the ball where the defender can only dream of being. It's almost unfair. The thing I will stress on this entire process that Mike Evans has is his tremendous body control. Not a lot of big guys have that kind of eye hand coordination mixed with physicality and quickness. He's probably not going to run away from the safetys in the NFL too often. But he's not a slug either. He's going to have his share of catch and runs and decent YAC, but not on the scale of Watson. Evans forte is the deep ball, and he can put a lot of "wow" plays in that area. But I think as an intermediate and short route runner, he doesn't have the suddenness or the quickness to take the ball upfield (thinking about slot motion type out patterns). He's not Wes Welker. He can't be used that way. And that's fine, it's not his niche. He needs to be put outside and cast in the "go route" role. I'm very confident he'll be a star if used that way and matched up with a big arm NFL QB in a deep passing game system. He'd be an awful fit ina dink and dunk WCO.
And Bob, like I said previously, I know that you are high on Watson, but I think I am maybe just a litte higher on him than you but that's ok.
I have no problem putting Watson in the super special ultra elite tier with Robinson and Clowney, and I know I'll get flamed for calling him a freak because supposedly you need to be at least 6'3" or more to qualify for that label. But I see him as a freak talent. As for Evans, a system fit and worth a first round pick for sure, but his stock is right now overvalued compared to the names that are being mocked around him. I could see a Sammy Watson going #1 overall and I would not flinch. I could see Mike Evans going top 10 and I would groan just a bit.This shouldn't be overlooked. After Watkins's freshman season we were anticipating his availability for rookie drafts in a similar way to emerging stars like Julio Jones of A.J. Green (that is NOT a body type comparison
) and then after a tough sophomore season he renewed that enthusiasm this year. This isn't a guy who we recently got excited about, or who came out of nowhere, so trying to explain or downplay his potential through height/weight/speed parameters that are being disproved again and again in this thread as historical barriers to elite NFL production seems odd to me. We have two production seasons' worth of tape where he displays elite WR skills (as Raiderfan summarizes perfectly above my post); why doesn't more of the conversation focus on whether those specific skills translate to the NFL?
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Englishteacher
Footballguy
Pre-draft measurables Ht Wt 40-yd dash 10-yd split 20-yd split 20-ss 3-cone Vert Broad BP 6 ft 0 in 192 lb 4.38 s 1.57 s 2.62 s 37 in 9 ft 10 in 40-yard dash result is from NC State Pro Day workout, all other values from 1999 NFL Scouting Combine.[2][3]
2014 NFL Draft[SIZE=small][[/SIZE]edit] Pre-draft measurables Ht Wt Arm length Hand size 40-yd dash 10-yd split 20-yd split 20-ss 3-cone Vert Broad BP 6 ft 1 in 211 lb 32 in 9 ⅝ in 4.43 s 4.34 s 6.95 s 34 in 10 ft 6 in 16 reps All values from NFL Combine[17]
Top: Torry Holt
Bottom: Sammy Watkins
Sorry for the formatting... was going to fix it but just got a phone call and have to leave...
Anyways... Top 10 WR... comparable size and speed... Watkins more pwoerful though... but I thought of these two guys as their alpha wideouts but on the smaller side...
2014 NFL Draft[SIZE=small][[/SIZE]edit] Pre-draft measurables Ht Wt Arm length Hand size 40-yd dash 10-yd split 20-yd split 20-ss 3-cone Vert Broad BP 6 ft 1 in 211 lb 32 in 9 ⅝ in 4.43 s 4.34 s 6.95 s 34 in 10 ft 6 in 16 reps All values from NFL Combine[17]
Top: Torry Holt
Bottom: Sammy Watkins
Sorry for the formatting... was going to fix it but just got a phone call and have to leave...
Anyways... Top 10 WR... comparable size and speed... Watkins more pwoerful though... but I thought of these two guys as their alpha wideouts but on the smaller side...
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Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Milkman,
For the record I own Hopkins and think he has a very bright future ahead of him. He is a great player and was a first round pick. Do I think he was deserved of a top 10 pick? I am not sure, but he could have at least been in the discussion for a team like St. Louis last year who went with Austin instead.
Watkins has the stats that are better than Hopkins at Clemson and the tape is also showing that Watkins is a better prospect. That does not take anything away from Hopkins who is going to be a very good NFL wr and had a good rookie year.
Watkins has a chance at being a top 6 or 7 pick. You have gone on record saying Watkins is a first round pick. Where does that first round pick have to be before you think it is worth it?
For the record I own Hopkins and think he has a very bright future ahead of him. He is a great player and was a first round pick. Do I think he was deserved of a top 10 pick? I am not sure, but he could have at least been in the discussion for a team like St. Louis last year who went with Austin instead.
Watkins has the stats that are better than Hopkins at Clemson and the tape is also showing that Watkins is a better prospect. That does not take anything away from Hopkins who is going to be a very good NFL wr and had a good rookie year.
Watkins has a chance at being a top 6 or 7 pick. You have gone on record saying Watkins is a first round pick. Where does that first round pick have to be before you think it is worth it?
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah he's def a 1st round pick. Top 5? No. #1 prospect in this draft? No. Without looking at it to hard he probably should go in the 15-25ish range. He could very well be the best WR in this draft to. 6'0 4.4 speed guys that can't jump are really going to have a hard time being mega-elite.
Milkman
Footballguy
Ok I took a look at a few numbers. Here is a list of players I calculated their 5 year peaks. I used PPR scoring 1PPR 6 pt per TD 1 point every 10 yards receiving.
1. 6'0 Harrison - 21.44
2. 6'3 TO - 20.31
*3. 6'5 Megatron - 19.72
4. 6'2 Rice - 19.34
**5. 6'3 A. Johnson - 19.00
6. 6'0 Holt - 18.76
7. 6'4 Moss - 18.63
8. 6'3 Cater - 18.12
9. 6'3 Fitz - 17.78
10 6'4 Marshall - 17.56
11. 5'9 Welker - 17.53
12. 6'2 Irvin - 17.32
13. 5'9 Smith - 17.15
14. 6'1 White - 17.05
15. 6'1 Rison - 16.94
16. 6'0 Brown - 16.57
17. 6'0 Wayne - 16.33
18. 6'0 Ward - 16.00
19. 5'10 Mason - 15.44
20. 6'0 Bruce - 15.05
21. 6'0 Fryar - 14.56
***22. 6'3 Lofton - 14.37
23. 5'11 Ellard - 14.25
24. 6'2 Reed 14.12
* Calvin Johnson may not have peaked yet.
** I took out AJ's 2011 where he missed 9 games
*** I took out Lofton's 82 season where he missed 6 games.
A couple of things to note here. First I probably missed somebody so if you can think of a player that would fit in this top 24 that I don't have in here please mention it and we can put him in here.
Second there are 13 WR on this list under 6'2. However, there is only 10 under 6'1. Watkins is under 6'1. Also if you notice the top 10 is dominated by BIG WR with 8 out of the 10. Third I think this shows how much of an anomaly Harrison really is. I mean I don't think anybody has him as their #1 WR of all time. He played with the GOAT QB and it shows. Harrison is still good I'm not going to argue that. He is def not the GOAT WR though. He is the only finesse receiver that I can see that was an elite red zone target. His stats at the very least are questionable.
Another thing to keep in mind is there are 6 young elite WR in the league that are 6'2 and above that have a great shot at breaking into this top 24. Dez, D. Thomas, Green, Jones, Gordon, Jeffery. 10 of the bottom 12 wr on this list are 6'2 or smaller. Guess who these BIG WR are going to bump off this list in the next 10 years. It seems, at least at this point, to be a trend.
Of all the small WR on this list it looks to me like being a tough strong wr like Steve Smith matters. Is Watkins that kind of WR? He came into the combine at a great weight and he has some tape showing him trucking over defenders. I think it's def possible. He does not have elite speed or size but his speed is great and his size for a small wr is good. Looking at these stats we need to ask ourselves if we think he is tough enough to be elite.
In closing it's obvious that size does in fact matter. In ten years I would estimate that 15-16 of the WR in the top 24 ff performers will in fact be 6'2 or taller with 9 of the top ten being 6'2 or bigger.
1. 6'0 Harrison - 21.44
2. 6'3 TO - 20.31
*3. 6'5 Megatron - 19.72
4. 6'2 Rice - 19.34
**5. 6'3 A. Johnson - 19.00
6. 6'0 Holt - 18.76
7. 6'4 Moss - 18.63
8. 6'3 Cater - 18.12
9. 6'3 Fitz - 17.78
10 6'4 Marshall - 17.56
11. 5'9 Welker - 17.53
12. 6'2 Irvin - 17.32
13. 5'9 Smith - 17.15
14. 6'1 White - 17.05
15. 6'1 Rison - 16.94
16. 6'0 Brown - 16.57
17. 6'0 Wayne - 16.33
18. 6'0 Ward - 16.00
19. 5'10 Mason - 15.44
20. 6'0 Bruce - 15.05
21. 6'0 Fryar - 14.56
***22. 6'3 Lofton - 14.37
23. 5'11 Ellard - 14.25
24. 6'2 Reed 14.12
* Calvin Johnson may not have peaked yet.
** I took out AJ's 2011 where he missed 9 games
*** I took out Lofton's 82 season where he missed 6 games.
A couple of things to note here. First I probably missed somebody so if you can think of a player that would fit in this top 24 that I don't have in here please mention it and we can put him in here.
Second there are 13 WR on this list under 6'2. However, there is only 10 under 6'1. Watkins is under 6'1. Also if you notice the top 10 is dominated by BIG WR with 8 out of the 10. Third I think this shows how much of an anomaly Harrison really is. I mean I don't think anybody has him as their #1 WR of all time. He played with the GOAT QB and it shows. Harrison is still good I'm not going to argue that. He is def not the GOAT WR though. He is the only finesse receiver that I can see that was an elite red zone target. His stats at the very least are questionable.
Another thing to keep in mind is there are 6 young elite WR in the league that are 6'2 and above that have a great shot at breaking into this top 24. Dez, D. Thomas, Green, Jones, Gordon, Jeffery. 10 of the bottom 12 wr on this list are 6'2 or smaller. Guess who these BIG WR are going to bump off this list in the next 10 years. It seems, at least at this point, to be a trend.
Of all the small WR on this list it looks to me like being a tough strong wr like Steve Smith matters. Is Watkins that kind of WR? He came into the combine at a great weight and he has some tape showing him trucking over defenders. I think it's def possible. He does not have elite speed or size but his speed is great and his size for a small wr is good. Looking at these stats we need to ask ourselves if we think he is tough enough to be elite.
In closing it's obvious that size does in fact matter. In ten years I would estimate that 15-16 of the WR in the top 24 ff performers will in fact be 6'2 or taller with 9 of the top ten being 6'2 or bigger.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
2 things.
1. The problem with your data in regards to fantasy points is that it doesnt take into consideration of the mutations of the NFL offense. Comparing Andre Reed/Michael Irvin to the players of 2013 is just dumb. Its a totally and completely different league then it was just 8-10 years ago. The number of 4000 yd passers are insane. The game has changed to favor the qb and wr.
2. You have completely too much time on your hands
1. The problem with your data in regards to fantasy points is that it doesnt take into consideration of the mutations of the NFL offense. Comparing Andre Reed/Michael Irvin to the players of 2013 is just dumb. Its a totally and completely different league then it was just 8-10 years ago. The number of 4000 yd passers are insane. The game has changed to favor the qb and wr.
2. You have completely too much time on your hands
pantherclub
Footballguy
also where are you getting that Watkins doesnt have elite speed? Have you watched any of his games?
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
If you are going to throw around cherry-picked lists, here is one (cited often enough) that should make everyone pay attention:
Number of college All-Americans as true freshman, ever: 4
Their names:
1. Herschel Walker
2. Marshall Faulk
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Sammy Watkins
Now let's exclude running backs and just list the number of college All-Americans as true freshman amongst wide receivers in the history of the NCAA:
1. Sammy Watkins
None of those 24 superstar wide receivers above accomplished this. Calvin, Dez, AJ Green Julio...none of those guys could do it. He walked onto a college football field as an 18 year old true freshman, and dominated the landscape enough to be named an All-American. At a position that is considered very difficult to learn. Competing against 21 and 22 year olds that have been in college for 3-4 years and he crushed them as an 18 year old kid with maybe a few months of college training camp.
Yes, he is 6' 3/4" tall. And yes, he is special.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
As a cool wayback machine post, here is an article about Watkins when he was a true freshman from 10/19/11, as he was 7 games through his freshman season:
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/31040/clemson-wr-sammy-watkins-playing-above-his-age
This past summer, Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen kept watching, waiting for true freshmanSammy Watkins to act his age.
Go to the wrong locker. Wear the wrong uniform. Get lost on campus. Get leveled at practice. Anything.
It never happened.
"Sammy steps on campus at 6-2, 205-210 -- he’s put together, now -- and I’m just like, 'Let's see what he does in our first summer workouts,'" Allen said. "We go out for summer workouts and he burns by people. I’m like, 'OK, that’s going to stop in fall camp when we put the pads on.' We put the pads on, and we were going through blocking drills, Sammy was running full speed, low, running through guys, blocking his tail off, and I’m like, 'Does he catch every pass, too?' I just keep looking for holes, and I tell you, there are none."
[+] Enlarge
Jeff Fishbein/Icon SMISammy Watkins accounts for 89 of his school-record 345 all-purpose yards with this kickoff return for a touchdown against Maryland.
At only 18 years old, Watkins has made it easy to forget he is only a true freshman. After all, Watkins already owns 11 school freshman records and he’s on pace to set more with five games remaining. Watkins has captured the attention of college football fans across the country with his speed, his exciting versatility, and his uncanny ability to single-handedly change a game. Equally if not more impressive, though, has been his maturity off the field. He’s a regular in the academic center, has developed a reputation for his business-like attitude on and off the field, and he has managed to remain humble despite the abundance of individual and team success this year.
“(Receivers) coach (Jeff Scott) tells me, ‘Don’t be a typical freshman,’ so I can’t do what all the other freshmen do,” he said. “Like being late, dressing up in the wrong stuff, or getting into trouble and not making the tutoring and stuff like that.
“I just know from my point of view, I just have to keep working and getting better and better,” he said. “I can’t say, ‘Oh, I’m a freshman, I got this or that.’ That doesn’t matter. At the end of the day, I have to keep performing every game.”
Watkins' combination of talent and attitude should concern the rest of the ACC. And it does.
“I don’t know if anybody’s got somebody that can cover Sammy Watkins," said Duke coach David Cutcliffe. "What I watched Saturday night, I’d have to call him right now the best player in college football. He’s a brand new ‘Cat, but good gosh! He looked like that on tape too. The only thing I know to cover him is to have him arrested before the ballgame.”
And it's just the beginning. Much like No. 7 Clemson as a team, Watkins has yet to reach his peak.
“He’s smart enough to know that he has not arrived, and he has one of the best work ethics on our football team,” said former offensive line coach Brad Scott, who recruited Watkins with his son, receivers coach Jeff Scott. “… He keeps it all in perspective. That’s what I think is pretty unique about him.”
That and his instant success.
Watkins enters Saturday’s game against North Carolina ranked No. 10 in the nation in all-purpose running (172.1) and No. 18 in receiving yards per game (104). He is tied for third in touchdown receptions with eight.
His 345 all-purpose yards in last week’s 56-45 win over Maryland were not only a Clemson record, but the fourth-highest single game total in ACC history.
“His performance at Maryland was one of the best individual performances I’ve seen since -- who’s that one guy we had a couple of years ago, C.J. Spiller?” Allen said with a laugh.
Watkins broke Spiller’s all-purpose yardage record last week and now has 46 receptions for 728 yards and eight touchdowns, all school freshman records. He leads all freshmen nationally in reception yards per game, all-purpose running yards per game and touchdown receptions.
“He looks like Spider-Man," said Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. "The ball just sticks to his hands."
Brad Scott, who has since moved into an administrative role as director or recruiting, began watching Watkins at South Fort Myers High in Florida in the spring before his sophomore season.
“I’ve coached for a little over 32 years, so you’ve seen some good players, and I was around some good teams,” Scott said. “As I kept watching him into his senior year ... the further along I just kept seeing him doing some amazing things in a high school game and having the ability to single-handedly put his team on his back and carry them to victory.
“I remember walking away the last game I saw him in, just kind of shaking my head and thinking, ‘Hey, this guy could be really special,’” Scott said. “He’s right up there in the category with some of the very best I’ve ever seen in high school.”
Despite the fact he was oozing with potential, Watkins was given no promises about playing time. In fact, he said he was surprised he cracked the starting lineup so early. It wasn’t until the week of the Auburn game that Watkins realized just how much of a factor he was expected to be in the new offense. The coaches had designed the plays for Watkins to be the first option, and he has repeatedly come through for them and first-year starting quarterback Tajh Boyd.
“When God made this one,” Swinney said, “He was in a great mood that day.”
Not a bad start -- for a freshman.
http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/31040/clemson-wr-sammy-watkins-playing-above-his-age
This past summer, Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen kept watching, waiting for true freshmanSammy Watkins to act his age.
Go to the wrong locker. Wear the wrong uniform. Get lost on campus. Get leveled at practice. Anything.
It never happened.
"Sammy steps on campus at 6-2, 205-210 -- he’s put together, now -- and I’m just like, 'Let's see what he does in our first summer workouts,'" Allen said. "We go out for summer workouts and he burns by people. I’m like, 'OK, that’s going to stop in fall camp when we put the pads on.' We put the pads on, and we were going through blocking drills, Sammy was running full speed, low, running through guys, blocking his tail off, and I’m like, 'Does he catch every pass, too?' I just keep looking for holes, and I tell you, there are none."
[+] Enlarge
Jeff Fishbein/Icon SMISammy Watkins accounts for 89 of his school-record 345 all-purpose yards with this kickoff return for a touchdown against Maryland.At only 18 years old, Watkins has made it easy to forget he is only a true freshman. After all, Watkins already owns 11 school freshman records and he’s on pace to set more with five games remaining. Watkins has captured the attention of college football fans across the country with his speed, his exciting versatility, and his uncanny ability to single-handedly change a game. Equally if not more impressive, though, has been his maturity off the field. He’s a regular in the academic center, has developed a reputation for his business-like attitude on and off the field, and he has managed to remain humble despite the abundance of individual and team success this year.
“(Receivers) coach (Jeff Scott) tells me, ‘Don’t be a typical freshman,’ so I can’t do what all the other freshmen do,” he said. “Like being late, dressing up in the wrong stuff, or getting into trouble and not making the tutoring and stuff like that.
“I just know from my point of view, I just have to keep working and getting better and better,” he said. “I can’t say, ‘Oh, I’m a freshman, I got this or that.’ That doesn’t matter. At the end of the day, I have to keep performing every game.”
Watkins' combination of talent and attitude should concern the rest of the ACC. And it does.
“I don’t know if anybody’s got somebody that can cover Sammy Watkins," said Duke coach David Cutcliffe. "What I watched Saturday night, I’d have to call him right now the best player in college football. He’s a brand new ‘Cat, but good gosh! He looked like that on tape too. The only thing I know to cover him is to have him arrested before the ballgame.”
And it's just the beginning. Much like No. 7 Clemson as a team, Watkins has yet to reach his peak.
“He’s smart enough to know that he has not arrived, and he has one of the best work ethics on our football team,” said former offensive line coach Brad Scott, who recruited Watkins with his son, receivers coach Jeff Scott. “… He keeps it all in perspective. That’s what I think is pretty unique about him.”
That and his instant success.
Watkins enters Saturday’s game against North Carolina ranked No. 10 in the nation in all-purpose running (172.1) and No. 18 in receiving yards per game (104). He is tied for third in touchdown receptions with eight.
His 345 all-purpose yards in last week’s 56-45 win over Maryland were not only a Clemson record, but the fourth-highest single game total in ACC history.
“His performance at Maryland was one of the best individual performances I’ve seen since -- who’s that one guy we had a couple of years ago, C.J. Spiller?” Allen said with a laugh.
Watkins broke Spiller’s all-purpose yardage record last week and now has 46 receptions for 728 yards and eight touchdowns, all school freshman records. He leads all freshmen nationally in reception yards per game, all-purpose running yards per game and touchdown receptions.
“He looks like Spider-Man," said Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. "The ball just sticks to his hands."
Brad Scott, who has since moved into an administrative role as director or recruiting, began watching Watkins at South Fort Myers High in Florida in the spring before his sophomore season.
“I’ve coached for a little over 32 years, so you’ve seen some good players, and I was around some good teams,” Scott said. “As I kept watching him into his senior year ... the further along I just kept seeing him doing some amazing things in a high school game and having the ability to single-handedly put his team on his back and carry them to victory.
“I remember walking away the last game I saw him in, just kind of shaking my head and thinking, ‘Hey, this guy could be really special,’” Scott said. “He’s right up there in the category with some of the very best I’ve ever seen in high school.”
Despite the fact he was oozing with potential, Watkins was given no promises about playing time. In fact, he said he was surprised he cracked the starting lineup so early. It wasn’t until the week of the Auburn game that Watkins realized just how much of a factor he was expected to be in the new offense. The coaches had designed the plays for Watkins to be the first option, and he has repeatedly come through for them and first-year starting quarterback Tajh Boyd.
“When God made this one,” Swinney said, “He was in a great mood that day.”
Not a bad start -- for a freshman.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
