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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
mikel0254
Footballguy
Pretty much sums it up. But I'll add, "The worst kind of FF player, until an injury, then he'll be the best kind of FF player"
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You would think it's obvious, but we're still blasted with a barrage of people touting the merits of ignoring RBs early because you can just plug in insert-name-of-inconsistent-guy-that-explodes-on-your-bench-and-does-diddly-in-your-lineup here.
How many people played Ridley over Hill last week, and then Hill over Ridley this week? How many people had Ridley or Pierre Thomas in their lineups last week and then on their bench this week? Most, I would wager.
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That's kind of a separate issue, although I think people waste way too much time and effort arguing the merits of one strategy over another- it all depends on the actual players you get, not what strategy you used or the order you get them in.
That being said, I was talking more about the "analysis". Clearly Hill is their #2 RB, and when they aren't able to run the ball much his numbers are going to suffer. It's also pretty clear that they like to run the ball, and most games won't be like this one. It's also obvious that there is a "big difference" between the RB who gets the ball more than the one who doesn't. Etc.
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shader
Footballguy
I think this is the week he explodes onto the scene. Bengals really need to use him. I'd give him more carries than Gio and let Gio play a little WR.
If he gets 5-7 carries, it would be criminal. The Bengals are down to Sanu, Gio and Hill. Everyone else on the offense sucks. Who else is gonna get the ball?
If he gets 5-7 carries, it would be criminal. The Bengals are down to Sanu, Gio and Hill. Everyone else on the offense sucks. Who else is gonna get the ball?
shader
Footballguy
Dismattle
Footballguy
The short passing game can be effective too
I think what We would be banking on is an over used Bernard, leading to a second half cruise to a Win..
Basically Hill earning a positive split in time-share for the latter part of the game
The Team should be motivated after that huge Loss..
A strong running game builds character..
However, I still have Hill on the BN.. Im also not too sure about Eagles players in general..
Dismattle
Footballguy
Yeah, I guess that has to be the right Call
If its start two RB, that would make for RB32 having value!
ignore my last post!
Yeah, it's definitely the kind of league where you grab anyone who has value.
Not to get too far into the weeds, but the only limitation is that we can only start 2 RBs (our flex is a WR/TE). Since my starters are DeMarco and Ellington, Hill would have to really bust out to make it into the lineup. OTOH, given the injury history of those two (plus Bradshaw, my RB3), he would be a nice insurance policy.
bostonfred
Footballguy
So the consensus this week is to bench him? Or start him?
ForWhoForWhat
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Sounds a little like roster poison. But that's not what I'm asking. Are we starting him or sitting him this week?You can't start him but you can't drop him. End of story.
Sounds a little like roster poison. But that's not what I'm asking. Are we starting him or sitting him this week?You can't start him but you can't drop him. End of story.
You starting your boy Freeman?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If he's talking about dropping him, he's obviously talking redraft. In a redraft league, one had to imagine that he wasn't going to be a huge contributor as a rookie unless Bernard was injured.Sounds a little like roster poison. But that's not what I'm asking. Are we starting him or sitting him this week?You can't start him but you can't drop him. End of story.
In a dynasty the notion that he is "roster poison" is laughable. Most owners aren't, or shouldn't be, relying on their rookie picks to be in their line-ups week in and week out. You have championed Freeman as a better rookie option in this thread, because he was more likely to be a feature back. Has that worked out well for you?
I started him last week due to byes and injuries. This week I will not be because I have better options.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
If AJ is out, I can see Hill having a good fantasy day. Didn't he rack up his best stats in week 2 when AJ left the game with an injury?
TartanLion
Footballguy
Any chance they get Hill and Gio out on the field at the same time this week ?
That was also against ATL so cant really judge it. ATL makes every rb they face a superstar.
bostonfred
Footballguy
No, but i would still take freeman over hill in dynasty. Freeman has been surprisingly good so far. He had one nightmare game with 11 rushes for 12 yards and a fumble in mop duty in a blowout. Everyone knew he was in to run the clock out, and he sucked at it. But in his other for games, he has 8 rushes for 61 yards and 11 catches for 96 yards. Even with that game, he's averaging 3.9 ypc with 12 for 103 receiving. Not bad considering he's in for spot duty. And while antone smith has stolen the show with big plays this season, they aren't talking about him as a feature back, and they still seem determined to get freeman carries. In fact, Jacquizz is losing touches while Freeman is slowly gaining them. So the momentum, while slow, is positive.Sounds a little like roster poison. But that's not what I'm asking. Are we starting him or sitting him this week?You can't start him but you can't drop him. End of story.
I don't think we will see a changing of the guard right away, but I do still see real long term upside in freeman that I don't see in hill while bernard is there. Which is basically what I've said all along: I want a potential stud, not a touchdown dependent part time back, and in willing to risk drafting a bust to get the higher upside player.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Your assumption is that the job will be Freeman's all alone some day. That isn't likely to be the reality. He looks far more like a complimentary back than Hill does.No, but i would still take freeman over hill in dynasty.Freeman has been surprisingly good so far. He had one nightmare game with 11 rushes for 12 yards and a fumble in mop duty in a blowout. Everyone knew he was in to run the clock out, and he sucked at it. But in his other for games, he has 8 rushes for 61 yards and 11 catches for 96 yards. Even with that game, he's averaging 3.9 ypc with 12 for 103 receiving. Not bad considering he's in for spot duty. And while antone smith has stolen the show with big plays this season, they aren't talking about him as a feature back, and they still seem determined to get freeman carries. In fact, Jacquizz is losing touches while Freeman is slowly gaining them. So the momentum, while slow, is positive.Sounds a little like roster poison. But that's not what I'm asking. Are we starting him or sitting him this week?You can't start him but you can't drop him. End of story.
I don't think we will see a changing of the guard right away, but I do still see real long term upside in freeman that I don't see in hill while bernard is there. Which is basically what I've said all along: I want a potential stud, not a touchdown dependent part time back, and in willing to risk drafting a bust to get the higher upside player.
So the guy who is 4th on the depth chart behind pedestrian RBs and who hasn't played well is a potential stud, but the guy who is 2nd on the depth chart and has played well isn't. Gotcha.No, but i would still take freeman over hill in dynasty.Freeman has been surprisingly good so far. He had one nightmare game with 11 rushes for 12 yards and a fumble in mop duty in a blowout. Everyone knew he was in to run the clock out, and he sucked at it. But in his other for games, he has 8 rushes for 61 yards and 11 catches for 96 yards. Even with that game, he's averaging 3.9 ypc with 12 for 103 receiving. Not bad considering he's in for spot duty. And while antone smith has stolen the show with big plays this season, they aren't talking about him as a feature back, and they still seem determined to get freeman carries. In fact, Jacquizz is losing touches while Freeman is slowly gaining them. So the momentum, while slow, is positive.Sounds a little like roster poison. But that's not what I'm asking. Are we starting him or sitting him this week?You can't start him but you can't drop him. End of story.
I don't think we will see a changing of the guard right away, but I do still see real long term upside in freeman that I don't see in hill while bernard is there. Which is basically what I've said all along: I want a potential stud, not a touchdown dependent part time back, and in willing to risk drafting a bust to get the higher upside player.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Panthers aren't exactly gangbusters vs. the run either.
I own Hill in a league where we play two at Flex. If Green is out, Hill will be my Flex2 this week. I doubt Hue will be reticent to take the air out of the ball against Carolina if AJ can't go. The Bengals get up early and Hill could see a relatively nice bump in touches this week.
Green plays then he'll be going back on my bench.
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Jrodicus
Footballguy
I'm probably starting him in 3 leagues. Not a consensus as I'm starting Stacy, Miller, and Richardson over him in some other leagues.
SecondString
Footballguy
Serious skills, the kind of talent that can't be suppressed. Too bad he's playing behind Gio, because they will continue to hurt each others' FF ceiling. But give the rookie a few more games, he will seriously cut into Gio's value. Good for the Bengals, bad for FF owners. His touches will increase, I see a fairly even split before season's end. Bottom line, another dreaded RBBC, but with a little more production than most.
RBM
Footballguy
Is this just a funny feeling kind of thing? I mean there's no evidence that even remotely says even split.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Have you seen the guy play? In his limited opportunity he's shown he has ability and potential.
Squintz82
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I think he's going to be huge the 2nd half of the year. No way would I cut him.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
I kept him this week instead of Zac Stacy. Short benches and with Foles on a bye next week I had to grab Brady vs the Jets while I could.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
With that depleted Wr core I don't see how anyone can't see him not getting more opportunity. ......regardless of Gio. Gio isn't going to get 40 touches a game.Squintz82 said:
groin pains
Footballguy
I have to start him this week as I benched T Rich and his 10 points last night. Oh well.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
This would make sense and is a logical proposition. However, Marvin Lewis is the coach, so throw this idea out the window as it has 0% chance of happening.
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just_want_2_win
Footballguy
just_want_2_win
Footballguy
TD! This is why you held him.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Week 1 mostly not started.
Week 2 spot started.
Week 3 consistently started.
Week 4 bye
Week 5 consistently started
Week 6 spot started.
Through five games, he's averaging 50 total yards and .6 touchdowns per game. He has yet to get 100 total yards in a game, although he does have touchdowns in three games.
Both weeks that he was "consistently started", he had just 9.9 points. His two best weeks, with 17.6 and 13.5, he was spot started, and benched in favor of other low quality options.
Over this four week stretch (not counting week 1 or the bye) he is somewhere between rb15 and rb25, which is about what his supporters expected from him, and I agreed with that evaluation out even a slightly better one. Yet the actual performance they've gotten from him so far has been two ten point performances in ppr, or similar yuck in non ppr, which is a substantially worse pace.
This is what I've been trying to say the entire thread. And it has nothing to do with his current performance. By most accounts, he's looked good, and is doing well, and maybe even exceeding expectations even in fantasy. Yet he's am extremely frustrating player who lulls you into starting him after a good week, then you bench him after a bad week, because the tendency is to chase points, which by definition means starting him after he scored well instead of before it.
Again, he's a very good player, and I agreed with everyone who saw talent in him. But until or unless gio gets hurt or leaves town, hill will be extremely frustrating to own. Even if you see him as more than that, chances are good that his owner will eventually trade him for a loss so he would be cheaper to acquire after the draft than during it.
At this point, nothing has been "proven" one way or the other, and I'm not here to call anyone out, but I wanted to clarify my point during the season because it seemed like people misunderstood what I was saying this offseason. This is exactly the kind of player I think you should avoid, even if it means taking a player with a lower probability of success but a higher ceiling.
Week 2 spot started.
Week 3 consistently started.
Week 4 bye
Week 5 consistently started
Week 6 spot started.
Through five games, he's averaging 50 total yards and .6 touchdowns per game. He has yet to get 100 total yards in a game, although he does have touchdowns in three games.
Both weeks that he was "consistently started", he had just 9.9 points. His two best weeks, with 17.6 and 13.5, he was spot started, and benched in favor of other low quality options.
Over this four week stretch (not counting week 1 or the bye) he is somewhere between rb15 and rb25, which is about what his supporters expected from him, and I agreed with that evaluation out even a slightly better one. Yet the actual performance they've gotten from him so far has been two ten point performances in ppr, or similar yuck in non ppr, which is a substantially worse pace.
This is what I've been trying to say the entire thread. And it has nothing to do with his current performance. By most accounts, he's looked good, and is doing well, and maybe even exceeding expectations even in fantasy. Yet he's am extremely frustrating player who lulls you into starting him after a good week, then you bench him after a bad week, because the tendency is to chase points, which by definition means starting him after he scored well instead of before it.
Again, he's a very good player, and I agreed with everyone who saw talent in him. But until or unless gio gets hurt or leaves town, hill will be extremely frustrating to own. Even if you see him as more than that, chances are good that his owner will eventually trade him for a loss so he would be cheaper to acquire after the draft than during it.
At this point, nothing has been "proven" one way or the other, and I'm not here to call anyone out, but I wanted to clarify my point during the season because it seemed like people misunderstood what I was saying this offseason. This is exactly the kind of player I think you should avoid, even if it means taking a player with a lower probability of success but a higher ceiling.
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
35 total yards
4 catches
1 touchdown
Solid day as a flex player/low end RB2 in PPR again.
19th highest scoring RB this week.
4 catches
1 touchdown
Solid day as a flex player/low end RB2 in PPR again.
19th highest scoring RB this week.
LawFitz
Footballguy
bostonfred, I own Hill and I agree with much of what you're saying, but not your conclusion.
I wouldn't be happy starting Hill weekly, but his spot start / matchup play value is here now and if Gio goes down, he could easily be a top 5 PPG RB with Hue Jax leading his reins. I never root for players to go down, but RB is where you play the high upside backup game to fantasy championships.
Cheers.
I wouldn't be happy starting Hill weekly, but his spot start / matchup play value is here now and if Gio goes down, he could easily be a top 5 PPG RB with Hue Jax leading his reins. I never root for players to go down, but RB is where you play the high upside backup game to fantasy championships.
Cheers.
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Juzaba
Footballguy
Yeah, this is all true for idiots who chase points. Much like many of the secondary committee backs, you look for good running match ups - bad front 7's, good expected game scripts, weak opposing offenses, etc. So far, the Atl and Ten matchups were juicy and the Carolina matchup was doable. I think Hill has been far from "frustrating" and "unpredictable."
As an example, my RBs are Shady, Joique, Hill, Bradshaw, Asiata, and Kadeem Carey as a lottery ticket. So McCoy has always started, and the second spot has been the guy with the best matchup. For me, that was only Hill once - vs Atl - but I think it's a good example of how RB2 works in standard redraft fantasy works these days.
At this point, Hill looks good to me in the following matchups: wk 9 vs Jac, wk 10 vs Cle, wk 13 @ TB, wk 14 vs Pit. Next week @ Ind and wk 12 @ Hou are possibilities, but since I don't expect the Bengals to run away with those games, I'd be nervous.
Going forward, Hill has 4 startable weeks with handcuff upside on a powerful running team. That is a good outlook for a guy you drafted in the 11th round.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
True. I only started him one of three leagues I own him, and I almost have to (thanks to Ingram's injury and Chris Johnson sucking). Fortunately, I am stacked everywhere else (Romo, Demarco, four really good WRs, Gronk, etc.), so I am fine with his meager weekly production.
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Jack White
Footballguy
The problem with starting Hill -- unless you're desperate, of course -- is that there really is no way to predict which game he'll score a TD.True. I only started him one of three leagues I own him, and I almost have to (thanks to Ingram's injury and Chris Johnson sucking). Fortunately, I am stacked everywhere else (Romo, Demarco, four really good WRs, Gronk, etc.), so I am fine with his meager weekly production.
Without a TD, he doesn't get enough touches to be worthy of starting.
Will be interesting to see if he gets more consistent touches as the season wears on.
I doubt I would start him unless Gio missed a game, in which case he's an RB1.
