So in regards to the Bengals game, I noticed something interesting from the home and away
career splits
Diggs averaged 75% catch rate in games at home compared to 62% in games away. He averages 71 receiving yards in home games compared to 55 yards in away games.
The bad news is that Diggs has his best games September-November and his worst games are in December.
As far as their defenses, Carolina and Cincinatti are slightly above average overall in points allowed, 11th and 10th respectively.
Both are also above average against the pass, in terms of passing yards allowed, 7th and 8th respectively. The Panthers allow 64% completions and the Bengals 58.5% however the Panthers have had fewer pass attempts against them than the Bengals have. Yards per attempt for the Panthers is 7 for the Bengals 6.5 both teams have a high sack percentage, 8% of pass attempts for the Panthers have resulted in sacks (4th highest in the league right now) and 7.5% for the Bengals (8th highest in the league).
The Vikings offensive line has done a very good job of protecting Keenum this season, and Keenum has good pocket presence, the ability to escape pressure and get the ball out (sometimes recklessly in my opinion, but it hasn't really cost the Vikings yet).
So I don't think they will sack Keenum as much as they have been averaging against other teams. Without the sacks, the yards given up would be higher than they rank in that category.
The Panthers are 4th overall in rushing yards given up. Very good. The Bengals are 28th in rushing yards given up, not so good. In yards per attempt they are both giving up 4 which is slightly above average (tied with the Bengals 13th to 15th in the league right now) The Panthers have faced a lot fewer rushing attempts than the Bengals have.
In terms of
defense vs WRs it paints a different picture, The Bengals have given up the 3rd fewest points to WR so far this year, while the Pathers have given up 21st fewest points to WR, which is below average. This is for standard scoring, but using Draftkings 1pt per reception scoring is no difference for Carolina and the Bengals drop one spot to 4th fewest.
Another way to look at it this projects Diggs to have 4.2 recptions 63 yards .5 TD against the Pathers, or 9.4 points in standard, 13.4 points in PPR. These projections are based on ."playing percentages, fantasy points, and opponent fantasy points allowed"
Overall I would expect the game against the Panthers to be low scoring and the above projections seem optimistic, or too high based on the information about the splits for Diggs and also just how good the Panthers defense is against the run and the pass.
The Bengals game does look more promising because the Vikings are at home, but considering the Bengals weakness against the run, and how few points they have allowed to WR so far this season, that isn't looking like a promising match up in my opinion either.
For the Packers game I would throw all of the above out the window. I expect Rodgers to be back and the Vikings to need Diggs to have a big game in order to beat them. I think he comes through in week 16.