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WR Stefon Diggs, HOU (1 Viewer)

I truly believe he's hampered by the fact Keenum can't throw his routes. If/when Teddy/Bradford ever take hold of the reigns (2018), he has a chance to become top dog again. I can recollect at least 4-5 throws where Keenum missed him on big plays just because he can't throw those routes with any sort of consistency. 
Bridgewater's arm is even weaker than Keenum's.

 
Also last year it was "Bradford doesn't have enough time to throw Diggs' routes because the OL is so bad." 

Enough with the excuses... Diggs is the reincarnation of Chad Johnson for fantasy purposes and he's landed on the "never again" list for me

 
Bridgewater's arm is even weaker than Keenum's.
Unless I'm mistaken, Diggs is all Teddy looked for. Pretty much how me came on the scene. 

I traded for him a few weeks ago so I'm not invested past this season anyway. I have a seasons worth of frustration in 3 games. 

 
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JuniorNB said:
He did what he always does.  Has one big game early on, misses time with injury, then comes back and gives his owners 4.7 points every week. 
Add this with the fact that Diggs is always being ranked every week in the top 25 on every Expert's Rankings. 

He is one of the biggest reasons why i had not one, but two 6-7 teams this year and just missed the playoffs.

Diggs has become the "Crowell" of WRs

 
I'm not even considering him behind Adams and AJ. Its sad that Diggs and Evans are in my wr3 conversation along with Amendola and Rishard Matthews. Keenum is just lasered on Thielen and until a DC stops them, it'll keep going that way. 

 
Week 14 is essentially a BYE for my Diggs team. It at least gives me a chance to see if anything changes. FFB is a funny thing...Diggs has had some big games this year. And he’s disappeared at times as well.

While I certainly don’t wish for it, one Rudolph or Thielen injury and Diggs value goes well north. For that reason alone I don’t see him as droppable. 

Tough week to trust him with a difficult matchup, but in week 15 I may be starting him at home against Cinci. Crowder isn’t exactly captain consistent either, so....Diggs is probably my ride or die in the playoffs. At this point he’s got more upside than anyone I could pick up.  :shrug:

Diggs production is the worst byproduct of the Bradford injury for sure.  I keep hoping he has that big game right when I need it. Not holding my breath. 

 
The Vikings offense played a very conservative game last week. As long as the defense is as effective as it was, this is something they may do again. Its not good for fantasy, but it does win games.

The Vikings had a 15 play drive that chewed up almost all of the 3rd quarter. Then they used up the last five minutes of the 4th quarter and decided to just down the ball and run the rest of the clock out. Because they could.

I figured with the Falcons being out two of their starting corners, that the Vikings would have a match up advantage with their receivers, the Falcons defense with those starters is weaker against the run than it is the pass, and that weakness didn't go away due to the starting corners being out. The Vikings ran the ball 31 times and passed it 30 times.

Keenum threw the ball 30 times against the Falcons. He targeted 9 different players and no player had more than 5 targets. McKinnon, Thielen, Rudolph and Diggs each had 5 targets. Thats 20 of them. In the first half he misfired going to Diggs twice that I recall, He seemed more accurate in the second half.

Diggs is averaging 6.5 targets per game so far this season. He missed two games. This would be 78 targets over 12 games at this rate which would make him the 2nd most targeted receiver for the Vikings. It is faulty reasoning to think he is behind Rudolph without accounting for the 2 missed games. 

In the two games that Diggs did not play (week 6 and 7) Keenum threw the ball 69 times. The Vikings have attempted 404 passes over 12 games so far. Subtracting the 69 pass attempts from 404 is 335 pass attempts. Diggs is getting 19.4% of the targets when he has played. 

Adam Thielen has 27.7% of the Vikings targets this year. This is a really high market share for any WR, and as such less targets remain for other receivers, which the Vikings do use a lot of different players in the passing game. Thielens market share likely will go down, I think it is partially inflated because of Diggs missing two games.

Kyle Rudolph has 17.3% of the Vikings targets this year.

Clearly Diggs is the 2nd most targeted receiver.

The Vikings are averaging 33.6 pass attempts per game this year. 19.4% of that is 6.5 targets per game.

Last year the Vikings were very ineffective running the ball and they averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game.

I am sorry that folks have over drafted Diggs and that spurts keep ranking him highly, but it is what it is. The Vikings are not throwing the ball enough for you to expect Diggs to have more than 6.5 targets per game right now. There are plenty of other teams throwing the ball more than that, and players getting more opportunities than Diggs is. So do what you need to do for your fantasy teams.

As far as Diggs the player, nothing has really changed. He is still very good, the Vikings are not losing though, so they don't need him to produce as much right now as they have previously.

At the current pace Diggs will have 91 targets in 14 games played.

Last season DIggs had 112 targets in 13 games played, he was averaging 8.6 targets per game instead of 6.5 this year. It is basically the difference in the average passing attempts per game of 3 from last season to this season.

As a rookie in 2015 Diggs averaged 6.5 targets per game as well with Teddy Bridgewater, but the Vikings threw the ball a lot less then, 28.4 pass attempts per game and Diggs has 22% of the targets in the games he played. Adam Thielen had not emerged yet in the offense at that point.

 
@Biabreakable an excellent point about the defense. Unfortunately I don’t see week 14 as a shootout either, though sometimes it’s the games one least expects. That said, CAR is pretty good against the run so Diggs might get a little more love as the Vikes lean on dink & dunk passes.  :shrug:

Week 15 might be opened up a little - Bengals at home & looking like they’re on a roll offensively.  Could force the Vikes to throw a bit more there as well. 

But overall I agree with your post - I don’t get why Diggs is getting all th hate. He’s a super talented WR & the Vikes don’t really have a QB capable of getting him the ball deep. That’s not on Diggs. He’s still capable of putting up the big game. A lot has to do with game script. 

 
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Yeah I am not sure how the match up against Carolina will pan out. I haven;t really evaluated their defense yet.

I expect the Vikings to be able to keep Carolina from scoring though, so I wouldn't really expect much.

Against the Bengals the Vikings will be at home. This could be more favorable for Diggs? I dunno, something to look in to as far as his home and away games I think.

Week 16 against the Packers is where I can see them needing Diggs the most. So out of the next 3 match ups, I think he has a bigger game there than the other two. But I will look into the home/away splits and the next two defenses and follow up with a post after I have.

 
So in regards to the Bengals game, I noticed something interesting from the home and away career splits

Diggs averaged 75% catch rate in games at home compared to 62% in games away. He averages 71 receiving yards in home games compared to 55 yards in away games.

The bad news is that Diggs has his best games September-November and his worst games are in December.

As far as their defenses, Carolina and Cincinatti are slightly above average overall in points allowed, 11th and 10th respectively.

Both are also above average against the pass, in terms of passing yards allowed, 7th and 8th respectively. The Panthers allow 64% completions and the Bengals 58.5% however the Panthers have had fewer pass attempts against them than the Bengals have. Yards per attempt for the Panthers is 7 for the Bengals 6.5 both teams have a high sack percentage, 8% of pass attempts for the Panthers have resulted in sacks (4th highest in the league right now) and 7.5% for the Bengals (8th highest in the league).

The Vikings offensive line has done a very good job of protecting Keenum this season, and Keenum has good pocket presence, the ability to escape pressure and get the ball out (sometimes recklessly in my opinion, but it hasn't really cost the Vikings yet).

So I don't think they will sack Keenum as much as they have been averaging against other teams. Without the sacks, the yards given up would be higher than they rank in that category.

The Panthers are 4th overall in rushing yards given up. Very good. The Bengals are 28th in rushing yards given up, not so good. In yards per attempt they are both giving up 4 which is slightly above average (tied with the Bengals 13th to 15th in the league right now) The Panthers have faced a lot fewer rushing attempts than the Bengals have.

In terms of defense vs WRs it paints a different picture, The Bengals have given up the 3rd fewest points to WR so far this year, while the Pathers have given up 21st fewest points to WR, which is below average. This is for standard scoring, but using Draftkings 1pt per reception scoring is no difference for Carolina and the Bengals drop one spot to 4th fewest.

Another way to look at it this projects Diggs to have 4.2 recptions 63 yards .5 TD against the Pathers, or 9.4 points in standard, 13.4 points in PPR. These projections are based on ."playing percentages, fantasy points, and opponent fantasy points allowed"

Overall I would expect the game against the Panthers to be low scoring and the above projections seem optimistic, or too high based on the information about the splits for Diggs and also just how good the Panthers defense is against the run and the pass.

The Bengals game does look more promising because the Vikings are at home, but considering the Bengals weakness against the run, and how few points they have allowed to WR so far this season, that isn't looking like a promising match up in my opinion either.

For the Packers game I would throw all of the above out the window. I expect Rodgers to be back and the Vikings to need Diggs to have a big game in order to beat them. I think he comes through in week 16.

 
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I don't think that is the case, your working off old information if you think that.
old information? did Bridgewater get some kind of injection that I missed? Last time I saw him play (maybe I missed some news) he had a notorious weak arm - which isn't to say I don't think he's any good. I've always compared him to Chad Pennigton, who I thought very highly of but also had a weak arm.

Maybe it's possible Keenum's arm is weaker - if that's your point - but if so the difference is not significant.

 
old information? did Bridgewater get some kind of injection that I missed? Last time I saw him play (maybe I missed some news) he had a notorious weak arm - which isn't to say I don't think he's any good. I've always compared him to Chad Pennigton, who I thought very highly of but also had a weak arm.

Maybe it's possible Keenum's arm is weaker - if that's your point - but if so the difference is not significant.
Could be the difference between relative strength and absolute strength. Absolute strength Bridgewater does not have a very good deep ball. Relatively, maybe he is better than Keenum, I'm not sure, I don't have knowledge to form an opinion there. What I do know is that Bridgewater never seemed to be known for throwing the ball deep. Doesn't make him a bad QB

But I'm with you... I've never heard of someone with a weak arm suddenly getting super strong (at least without raising some eyebrows). maybe his arm strength was under-sold during the draft process? No idea. 

No one is doubting Diggs' talent. The "hate" is directed toward his fantasy production. He's the epitome of what Chad Johnson was. And Chad Johnson was a great WR. Fantasy nightmare, but great WR. He would get all of his points in 3-4 games and then the remaining 12-13 he'd put up 8 points. He'd finish top 25, so when you drafted him you were pretty happy with your WR2, until they started playing games and you realized "oh crap why did I think that'd be any different?" Diggs is getting dangerously close to this status the more years he puts in with productions like this. 

We can make all the excuses we want to: 
OL doesn't give the QB enough time to throw the ball to his deep routes
QB doesn't have the arm to throw to his deep routes
The game scripts haven't been fitting his skill set
He isn't recovered from _______ yet
He drew (insert shut down corner here) all game
That game was in bad weather
That game was against the best pass defense in the league

There are a lot of WRs on teams with poor OL, QB with a weak arm, drawing the opposing team's #1 QB, play banged up, and who are on good teams who win a lot... and they seem to do just fine with putting up 15+ fantasy points. Look at DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, AJ Green.

I drafted Diggs as my Flex/WR3 round 6. Seems reasonable right? At this point I am benching him for DeDe Westbrook


Biabreakable makes a great point that Diggs is the second most targeted player on this offense. So really, Thielen is the WR to own. I should go back and dig through posts from this summer so I can find where I was ridiculed for suggesting such a thing... almomst drafted Thielen as well. Would have if I didn't keep Diggs for a 6th rounder. 
But if we approach Diggs as the 2nd WR on his team, expectations are tempered and more realistic. 

 
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So in regards to the Bengals game, I noticed something interesting from the home and away career splits

Diggs averaged 75% catch rate in games at home compared to 62% in games away. He averages 71 receiving yards in home games compared to 55 yards in away games.

The bad news is that Diggs has his best games September-November and his worst games are in December.

As far as their defenses, Carolina and Cincinatti are slightly above average overall in points allowed, 11th and 10th respectively.

Both are also above average against the pass, in terms of passing yards allowed, 7th and 8th respectively. The Panthers allow 64% completions and the Bengals 58.5% however the Panthers have had fewer pass attempts against them than the Bengals have. Yards per attempt for the Panthers is 7 for the Bengals 6.5 both teams have a high sack percentage, 8% of pass attempts for the Panthers have resulted in sacks (4th highest in the league right now) and 7.5% for the Bengals (8th highest in the league).

The Vikings offensive line has done a very good job of protecting Keenum this season, and Keenum has good pocket presence, the ability to escape pressure and get the ball out (sometimes recklessly in my opinion, but it hasn't really cost the Vikings yet).

So I don't think they will sack Keenum as much as they have been averaging against other teams. Without the sacks, the yards given up would be higher than they rank in that category.

The Panthers are 4th overall in rushing yards given up. Very good. The Bengals are 28th in rushing yards given up, not so good. In yards per attempt they are both giving up 4 which is slightly above average (tied with the Bengals 13th to 15th in the league right now) The Panthers have faced a lot fewer rushing attempts than the Bengals have.

In terms of defense vs WRs it paints a different picture, The Bengals have given up the 3rd fewest points to WR so far this year, while the Pathers have given up 21st fewest points to WR, which is below average. This is for standard scoring, but using Draftkings 1pt per reception scoring is no difference for Carolina and the Bengals drop one spot to 4th fewest.

Another way to look at it this projects Diggs to have 4.2 recptions 63 yards .5 TD against the Pathers, or 9.4 points in standard, 13.4 points in PPR. These projections are based on ."playing percentages, fantasy points, and opponent fantasy points allowed"

Overall I would expect the game against the Panthers to be low scoring and the above projections seem optimistic, or too high based on the information about the splits for Diggs and also just how good the Panthers defense is against the run and the pass.

The Bengals game does look more promising because the Vikings are at home, but considering the Bengals weakness against the run, and how few points they have allowed to WR so far this season, that isn't looking like a promising match up in my opinion either.

For the Packers game I would throw all of the above out the window. I expect Rodgers to be back and the Vikings to need Diggs to have a big game in order to beat them. I think he comes through in week 16.
Great analysis. I would toss the dec stats. It's only 9 games.   One was Seattle, one was Arizona, 2 at Gren Bay which could have been weather being the last game of the year

 
Great analysis. I would toss the dec stats. It's only 9 games.   One was Seattle, one was Arizona, 2 at Gren Bay which could have been weather being the last game of the year
Yeah things look way better when you cherry pick your stats... If we get rid of every bad game that has some remote kind of excusable explanation for his poor production, he looks like the GOAT

 
old information? did Bridgewater get some kind of injection that I missed? Last time I saw him play (maybe I missed some news) he had a notorious weak arm - which isn't to say I don't think he's any good. I've always compared him to Chad Pennigton, who I thought very highly of but also had a weak arm.

Maybe it's possible Keenum's arm is weaker - if that's your point - but if so the difference is not significant.
Before Teddy was injjured he was showing an improved deep ball in preseason play.

While he has been recovering, he has added strength and muscle.

Talk about him having a weak arm was exaggerated to begin with.

One of Keenum's weaknesses is throwing the deep ball with accuracy, it is quite possible that Bridgewater is better than Keenum in this area. Another weakness of Keenum is putting zip on throws that need them and Bridgewater may be better than Keenum is this area as well.

From last month TEDDY BRIDGEWATER HAS ‘EVERYONE RAVING’ ABOUT HIS ARM STRENGTH

 
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Great analysis. I would toss the dec stats. It's only 9 games.   One was Seattle, one was Arizona, 2 at Gren Bay which could have been weather being the last game of the year
Good point.

Im usually reluctant to put much stock into splits because disecting splits reduces the sample size your looking at. Your post shows a very good example of that happening.

 
Before Teddy was injjured he was showing an improved deep ball in preseason play.

While he has been recovering, he has added strength and muscle.

Talk about him having a weak arm was exaggerated to begin with.

One of Keenum's weaknesses is throwing the deep ball with accuracy, it is quite possible that Bridgewater is better than Keenum in this area. Another weakness of Keenum is putting zip on throws that need them and Bridgewater may be better than Keenum is this area as well.

From last month TEDDY BRIDGEWATER HAS ‘EVERYONE RAVING’ ABOUT HIS ARM STRENGTH
I dunno not sure how much a qb can really meaningfully improve arm strength; seems like it’s something you either have or you don’t.

 
I dunno not sure how much a qb can really meaningfully improve arm strength; seems like it’s something you either have or you don’t.
What makes you think that?

I don't think it was a weakness of Bridgewater to begin with. He threw deep effectively in college. Certainly not to the extent of comparing him to Chad Pennington.

Of course there are others like Greg Cosell and so on who disagree, but I am pretty sure they are wrong based on watching Teddy play myself at the college and pro level.

 
What makes you think that?

I don't think it was a weakness of Bridgewater to begin with. He threw deep effectively in college. Certainly not to the extent of comparing him to Chad Pennington.

Of course there are others like Greg Cosell and so on who disagree, but I am pretty sure they are wrong based on watching Teddy play myself at the college and pro level.
Well some qbs seemed to always have had weak arms; seems like if they could have made them stronger they would have. 

 
Well some qbs seemed to always have had weak arms; seems like if they could have made them stronger they would have. 
So I did a quick google search on QBs improving arm strength from college to the pros.

Most common examples given are Tom Brady (was compared to Drew Henson as far as arm strength as a QB prospect), Drew Brees who had a shoulder surgery that was successful and he gained arm strength following that, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers and there are more.

You didn't give a reason why you think it can't be improved, but there is some opinion that once a player reaches a certain age that their throwing velocity will not improve in baseball. Do you have any reason why you think arm strength is a static trait that cannot be improved besides age?

Most players gain strength in the NFL because the strength and conditioning programs are much better at the pro level than they are in college, also because most players enter the NFL at a young age and their bodies are still growing and developing after they become pros. Why would this not also be true for arm strength or throwing the deep ball?

BTW Teddy was 21 years old when he was drafted. A young rookie.

Deep passing can be improved through technique and mechanics, even if this were not considered "pure arm strength" whatever that is.

Norv Turner certainly didn't think this was a weakness of Teddy Bridgewater, and one of the main things that I think pidgeon holed Teddy Bridgewater as having a weak arm was pundits thinking a Norv Turner QB needs to have a strong arm. That is why people were projecting the Vikings and Norv Turner to be interested in Zach Mettenberger or Tom Savage not Teddy. They obviously were wrong and Norv Turner said as much.

 
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Before Teddy was injjured he was showing an improved deep ball in preseason play.
Throwing a deep ball well isn’t really indicative of arm strength. Pennington had one of the highest completion % on deep balls in the NFL.  It’s the out routes where it really comes into play.

With that said Teddy may have been improving but he wasn’t a great deep ball passer and he did lack arm strength. He may be better than Keenum - I’ll concede that, but that doesn’t mean it’s a strength.

 
Throwing a deep ball well isn’t really indicative of arm strength. Pennington had one of the highest completion % on deep balls in the NFL.  It’s the out routes where it really comes into play.

With that said Teddy may have been improving but he wasn’t a great deep ball passer and he did lack arm strength. He may be better than Keenum - I’ll concede that, but that doesn’t mean it’s a strength.
Meh.

One of the main routes Diggs was winning on with Teddy is the out route.

 
Throwing a deep ball well isn’t really indicative of arm strength. Pennington had one of the highest completion % on deep balls in the NFL.  It’s the out routes where it really comes into play.
Omg you just gave me flashbacks to Pennington throwing the out route and the DB jumping it and taking it to the house. Every. Single. Time.

 
Teddy Bridgewater 2015-2016 Extended Highlights

See plays at the 3 minute mark. 3:16 @ 3:30 @ 3:36 @ 3:49 @ 4:00 @ 4:50 all out routes.

4:58 is a deep route to Diggs that Teddy over throws a bit but Diggs is able to get under it.

This is followed by 4 more deep out routes (among other plays).

Preseason 2016 before Teddy was injured. See the deep out at the 48 second mark of the clip.

Teddy is not Cam Newton (thank god) but he has plenty of arm strength to make all of the throws.

 
I think Stefon Diggs will have a good game against the Panthers corners this week. All 3 of their corners are beatable (Diggs has also had good games against some of the best corners in the league before, such as Aqib Talib ,Marcus Peters) and the Panthers are so good against the run, that I think the Vikings will need to pass the ball more. The Panthers also like to use Kurt Coleman in the box a lot in run support, meaning that either Theilen or Diggs should see single coverage a lot.

I expect that to be Diggs more often than Thielen more often than Diggs, and for the Vikings to find Diggs open on crossing routes and with double moves.

 
I’ll gladly watch him blow up on my bench.  Another 30 yard effort would sink any chances of me staying alive in the playoffs, he’s done that 3 of the last 5. 

 
I’ll gladly watch him blow up on my bench.  Another 30 yard effort would sink any chances of me staying alive in the playoffs, he’s done that 3 of the last 5. 
:shrug: Do what you think is best for your team.

I am just looking at this match up for tomorrow over the past couple days and I have come to the conclusion that I think the Vikings are going to pass the ball a bit more and that Diggs may have a good game because of it.

 
I appreciate the breakdown Biabreakable but he's too risky for me even with his boom ability, which I need. Sitting him for Goodwin and Gio as I think this game may resemble more of a slugfest than shootout.

 
One of the best WR with the ball in his hands, in the NFL.

As to why they don't want the ball in his hands more, I couldnt tell you. Man runs some crisp routes. 

 
Got Josh Gordon, Baldwin, & Diggs; leaning Baldwin over Gordon over Diggs. 

Sure the targets were there, but it’s just so hard to trust him when it’s lose & go home. 

 
Have Diggs on the bench. Theilen and Jeffrey in over him and Ivory in at flex.
Down 17-5 (Stafford v. Allen) and am the underdog, so am debating putting Diggs in over Ivory to pair with Keenum.

 
Have Diggs on the bench. Theilen and Jeffrey in over him and Ivory in at flex.
Down 17-5 (Stafford v. Allen) and am the underdog, so am debating putting Diggs in over Ivory to pair with Keenum.
in this instance, I might start Diggs as a "swing for the fences" type of guy. Low floor, but high ceiling.

 
in this instance, I might start Diggs as a "swing for the fences" type of guy. Low floor, but high ceiling.
That’s where I’m at. I drafted Diggs in the 5th. I’m gonna start him. Plus while Thielen is playing, he’s a little gimpy, and Rudolph was doubtful as of Friday - both lead me to thinking his floor might be a bit higher than last week. No Pac-Man, weakened Bengals LB corps, and at home. Maybe I’m being optimistic, but I’m rolling with Diggs. 

 
Dre Kitpatrick is out for the Bengals which should lead to better match ups for the WRs and Diggs.

Rudolph was upgraded to questionable and it sounds like he may play, but with the ankle injury I am not thinking they will be asking Rudolph to block much. Rudolph may be used in the red zone as a receiver though.

The Bengals have struggled with stopping the run, which I think means the Vikings should have more success running with Murray this week, which helps the play action passing game and Keenum, but more rushing attempts and fewer passes to the receivers.

 
Tough call, seems like he has a shot to have a good game. Of course, I've been thinking that for a while now...

 
Don't have the numbers but, as a Vikings' fan, he seems to be better at home...
Looked it up before last week.

Diggs averaged 75% catch rate in games at home compared to 62% in games away. He averages 71 receiving yards in home games compared to 55 yards in away games.

Watching Vikings game day right now and they had a poll where 49% of Vikings fans expect Diggs to have well over 100 yards receiving today. Seems optimistic.  :homer:

I do think Diggs could have a better game than he did last week though.

 
Thoughts on him tonight?  Looks like wind won't be a factor but it will be around 10 degrees (yikes).  Will Keenum be able to throw worth a damn?

 
It's to bad the Bradford injury killed off Diggs season. He was a surefire top 5 PPR. Keenum has a crappy arm and has less than desirable talent to throw to a top 5 WR talent like Diggs. I'm starting Diggs over Westbrook because of the talent. 

 

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