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WR Michael Thomas, NO (2 Viewers)

Saints selected Ohio State WR Michael Thomas with the No. 47 overall pick in the 2016 draft.
Thomas (6'3/212) made 27 starts for the Buckeyes, parlaying 113 career catches into 1,602 yards (14.2 YPR) and 18 touchdowns. Thomas has the best hands in the draft, dropping just 5-of-157 targets over the last two seasons. His Combine was mediocre for such a highly-touted prospect, running 4.57 with a 35-inch vertical. Dangerous after the catch with an explosive second gear on tape, Thomas has drawn Michael Crabtree comparisons as an efficient playmaker with elite ball skills. His route running needs a ton of work, however, and there are questions about Thomas' long-term ceiling. In New Orleans, Thomas will compete for targets with Willie Snead and Brandon Coleman behind Brandin Cooks and Coby Fleener.

 
Apr 29 - 8:25 PM

 
The Hopkins comparison posted further up in combo with Brees should have fans and dynasty owners really excited, I think this can pay off right away.

 
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He looks very uncoordinated to me; reminds me of an awkward teenage boy who grew really fast, and his coordination hasn't caught up to his body.

Watching him go through all the combine drills, it seemed like he was trying to run/cut on a Slip'N Slide.

That said, he did go to the perfect landing spot in New Orleans.  If he can't produce there, he can't produce anywhere.

I wasn't even going to consider him at 1.10 in my rookie draft before he went to the Saints.

 
Second-round WR Michael Thomas is expected to have an immediate role on offense.
 
Not groundbreaking news, but noteworthy. With the release of Marques Colston and drop-prone Brandon Coleman as the Saints' other "big" receiver, Thomas may not face much competition. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead will provide the speed, while Thomas and Coby Fleener will be the tall towers for Drew Brees. Thomas also brings a run-after-catch element that Coleman lacks.

 
 
Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune 
May 18 - 9:23 AM
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steelers1080 said:
I didn't even have him on my radar prior to last night, but there was a teaser special about Mariuchi doing a WR camp on the NFL network.  During the teaser they covered Michael Thomas and how he performed during last season, and what he needs to improve.  He looks fairly talented to me.  My first pick isn't until pick 10 in this year's rookie draft, but I'm hoping he's still around.

I also think it doesn't help having the same name as Mike Thomas.  I just heard about Michael Thomas in passing and was like "Oh yeah, he played for the Jags."  The buzz on him seems to be way less than Treadwell, Doctson, Fuller, Coleman, Miller, Cooper, Caroo, etc.  Not sure why.
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Actually there was a Mike Thomas out of USM who I thought was a pretty good sleeper, picked in the 6th by the Rams.

 
Grabbed him at 1.05 last week. Tried to trade down to 1.06 or 1.07, but no dice. Like him more than I think Draft Twitter does. Seems to me to have a higher ceiling than Shepherd and I like NO as his landing spot.

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Grabbed him at 1.05 last week. Tried to trade down to 1.06 or 1.07, but no dice. Like him more than I think Draft Twitter does. Seems to me to have a higher ceiling than Shepherd and I like NO as his landing spot.
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Agreed.

It is not really an easy choice between them, so close. I think Thomas has more upside to actually become a TD threat and better chance of becoming their top WR although I see both as being the WR 2 for their teams.

I like both of the head coaches and organizations, so even when Brees (or Eli) retires I think these offenses will still be good because of their head coaches.

I could see going either way. I lean more towards Shephard in PPR leagues, Thomas in standard leagues.

 
Biabreakable said:
Agreed.

It is not really an easy choice between them, so close. I think Thomas has more upside to actually become a TD threat and better chance of becoming their top WR although I see both as being the WR 2 for their teams.

I like both of the head coaches and organizations, so even when Brees (or Eli) retires I think these offenses will still be good because of their head coaches.

I could see going either way. I lean more towards Shephard in PPR leagues, Thomas in standard leagues.
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Took Thomas in 3 drafts this year, twice at the 7 slot, and twice Shepard was the next WR drafted. Shepard will be no better than the WR2 on his own team no matter how well he plays for the next several years while THomas could be the #1 on his team as soon as September THIS YEAR.

 
 

Saints.com's John DeShazier does not think second-rounder Michael Thomas will beat out Brandon Coleman for the No. 3 receiver job.
We will have to respectfully disagree. Coleman has been in the system for two seasons and played well down the stretch last year, but Thomas was drafted to fill a specific role in the offense. The New Orleans Advocate's Nick Underhill expects Thomas to do "a lot of the things that Marques Colston used to do." It would be surprising if Thomas did not see more snaps and targets than Coleman this season.

Related: Brandon Coleman
 
Source: Saints.com 
Jun 4 - 11:21 AM
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
They had enough opportunity last year and Coleman failed to step up. I don't see how he holds off Thomas.
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I own Coleman and drafted Thomas, so I feel pretty confident that I will wind up with a quality starter, even if not immediately. I only have box scores with which to judge Coleman, but it looks like he was showing signs of life in the final quarter of 2015. Cherry-picking in the most favorable way, his stats from the best 4 of his last 5 games in 2015 are 18-261-1.

Did he really not look all that impressive? Based on what little I saw of the Saints last year, I am inclined to write off any struggles he had due to the offense looking out of rhythm. Your opinion is appreciated.

 
 

Saints.com believes second-round WR Michael Thomas' size has "shown very well" this offseason.
Standing in at 6-foot-3, 212 pounds, Thomas has been playing with a "confidence about him." Per in-house reporter Sean Kelley, Thomas is "going to be a star." Kelley, of course, literally gets paid to write positive things about Saints players, but he's just part of a larger chorus praising Thomas' early progress. It would be stunning were Thomas not to claim No. 3 duties, and perhaps even push Willie Snead opposite Brandin Cooks.

 
 
Source: neworleanssaints.com 
Jun 14 - 6:36 PM


 
The New Orleans Times-Picayune believes "fantasy owners should consider Michael Thomas in their fall drafts."
Reporter Jeff Duncan doesn't go into detail, but says Thomas has "gained the trust of Drew Brees." Saints receivers are a bit infamous for getting overhyped during the offseason, but this is different than a Brandon Coleman or Seantavius Jones, as Thomas is a second-round pick. Thomas could end up being a bit of fool's gold in fantasy with Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead not going anywhere, but will push for immediate WR4 status.

 
 
Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune
Jun 16 - 8:02 PM
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Thomas has so much inside knowledge how to play in the NFL that I have a good feeling he contribute during his rookie year. Drafted this kid with confidence and will be fun to watch how good he ends up to be  :popcorn:

 
He's so cheap right now, such a great late buy in redraft. You should be able to tell pretty quick if he's part of the gameplan or not. 

 
moved up from 1.14 to 1.09 to take him in my 16 team (with IDP) dyno

 
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Gonna be so good. The least sexy possession types always get undervalued as the draft approaches, and even on draft day. We and the NFL never learn.

 
Him and cooks together is a great young wr combo.  Might make brees look a few years younger

 
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ConnSKINS26 said:
Gonna be so good. The least sexy possession types always get undervalued as the draft approaches, and even on draft day. We and the NFL never learn.
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Plus tOSU didn't have much of a passing game and especially not the kind of timing based passing game that Thomas could best excel in. If he played on a team that threw more, he might have got more attention.

 
I like Thomas a lot in dynasty.  Not so sure he's a value this season in redraft.  Cooks, Fleener, Snead, Thomas.  Unless he's so good, he outshines Cooks and becomes the #1, I see a mediocre rookie season for fantasy.

 
If you think Fleener is over valued you may want to check out the year by year progression of other top TEs not named Gronk. For instance, Fleener's stats through 4 years are better (slightly) than Greg Olsen. Typically, TEs take 5 years to get up to speed. Fleener's progression and switch to a more TE friendly scheme indicates  good things in the coming years. 

 
Some take off after a few years and some don't. I haven't seen the kind of flashes from Fleener (and that's 7 years together with Luck) that I think the very good ones show - but I don't see all the Indy games. Brees, until age bites him, may be a small improvement as may be the system, but I fear Cody is one of those guys I'll always be a little late and a little cheap on to own.

 
Catbird said:
Some take off after a few years and some don't. I haven't seen the kind of flashes from Fleener (and that's 7 years together with Luck) that I think the very good ones show - but I don't see all the Indy games. Brees, until age bites him, may be a small improvement as may be the system, but I fear Cody is one of those guys I'll always be a little late and a little cheap on to own.
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Fleener has only 4 years in the league. Where are you getting 7?

 
Mister CIA said:
It's like Colston, Meachem, Henderson rolled into one, with upside.
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3 brandin cooks miscast as a wr1, ben watson, and willie snead rolled into one, with jimmy graham/colston/maybe even better upside.  

Brees hasn't had less than 4800 yards and 32 tds in 5 years.  His high water marks are a record setting 5476 yards and 46 touchdowns.  I doubt he approaches either this year, but his receiving options are almost inarguably better than what he had last year.

Ben watson had 74 catches for 825 yards and 6 tds.  Was that because watson suddenly improved?  Or did brees elevate a mediocre target?   See also: snead, willie.  

Fleener could step in to Watson's role.  But so could Thomas.  Thomas is a big body - not 6'6" like Fleener, but a solid 6'3" which is the same height as watson.  He's also a much better hands catcher. Fleener is notorious for making bad drops.  That won't get him the kind of targets he needs to be the main reciever.   

Watson and snead had 211 targets last year - 110 and 101 respectively.  I expect snead to drop down considerably and fleener to get fewer than watson did.  

I also don't expect cooks (129) to get many more targets.  He was miscast as a wr1, with 41 catches on 66 targets for 532 yards and 3 tds the first half of the season compared with 43 catches on 63 targets for 607 yards and 6 tds the second half.  Some of that is normal variance, but they seem to believe he is better going downfield than playing closer to the line of scrimmage.

Thomas probably caps out around 120 targets and 80-90 receptions, but he could catch 8-10 touchdowns and average in the low mid teens yards per reception. 1100 yards and 9 tds would be low end wr1 or high end wr2 numbers.

Edit to add those are probably year 2 numbers.  Year one i would expect a little less, although a mediocre rookie like snead almost had 1000 yards just catching balls from brees.

 
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I think its totally reasonable for all 3 to be fairly relevant (sans snead, i feel he will be the fourth wheel sooner than later)

Fleener wouldnt need huge numbers to be a TE1, i could even see him sneaking into the 5-8 range. Assume cooks has bottom end wr1-top end wr2 type of season, I think thomas could put together a middling wr3 or even top end wr3 season. Is he gonna win a league for you? Prolly not this season. But I see 1 of those 3 getting a lot of single coverage looks any given game. With Ingram hopefully running well, someone is gonna have a mis match or no safety help or something. Saints gonna throw a TON

 
He's really flipped the script from predraft chatter, where I feel like I read a lot of people saying he wasn't special, and was a bit of a diva.

I took him 9th in a May 31 rookie draft.   Where would he be going in rookie drafts now? 3rd? 4th? 

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
If you think Fleener is over valued you may want to check out the year by year progression of other top TEs not named Gronk. For instance, Fleener's stats through 4 years are better (slightly) than Greg Olsen. Typically, TEs take 5 years to get up to speed. Fleener's progression and switch to a more TE friendly scheme indicates  good things in the coming years. 
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Olsen is the exception, not the rule, I think. Doesn't mean Fleener can't break out (and I think he might). Graham, Kelce, Reed, Eifert, most top level guys do well by their 2nd year (Eifert was hurt his 2nd year, but close enough).

 
massraider said:
I took him 9th in a May 31 rookie draft.   Where would he be going in rookie drafts now? 3rd? 4th? 
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I saw him traded for Treadwell already (he added Cameron to Treadwell, but I assume that was just his initial strong offer).

He went 5th in a draft that started this week.

 
tangfoot said:
Lol, no.
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Not sure the question is lol-worthy. I've felt 1.3-1.12 was a crapshoot since the NFL draft. Due to ADP in other rookie drafts, I knew I could land Thomas maneuvering to 1.6. That said, I personally value him over the 3 guys selected in front of him.

 
BigJim® said:
That said, I personally value him over the 3 guys selected in front of him.
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Then trade down.  1.2 - 1.4 are, have been, and will continue to be Treadwell, Coleman and Doctson.  Thomas may move up to 1.5, but I doubt it (Shepard).  At 1.6 it starts getting interesting with the other RBs vs Thomas.  I suspect he won't climb any higher than 1.6-1.7 between now and opening day.

 
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