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TE Hunter Henry, NE (3 Viewers)

CaptainJT said:
Wow. Based on all the replies it seems I am off base on my Hunter Henry assessment.  I agree that when he has been utilized he has put up good numbers but so far in his career it is impossible to rely on him consistently.  Is that because the Chargers feel like they owe Gates? Is it that Gates is a better player? A better blocker? Maybe the team doesnt think Henry is as good as the fans do?  Maybe Henry isnt able to pick up the playbook?
I dont know what the reason is keeping Henry back, but if he were clearly better than Gates, he would play more and get more opportunities. Football is a business and the Chargers main goal is to win games and they must not feel that Henry gives them a better chance to win or they would use him more.
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It is the Chargers and it is what they do.

 
CaptainJT said:
Wow. Based on all the replies it seems I am off base on my Hunter Henry assessment.  I agree that when he has been utilized he has put up good numbers but so far in his career it is impossible to rely on him consistently.  Is that because the Chargers feel like they owe Gates? Is it that Gates is a better player? A better blocker? Maybe the team doesnt think Henry is as good as the fans do?  Maybe Henry isnt able to pick up the playbook?
I dont know what the reason is keeping Henry back, but if he were clearly better than Gates, he would play more and get more opportunities. Football is a business and the Chargers main goal is to win games and they must not feel that Henry gives them a better chance to win or they would use him more.
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not being a top 6 TE by his second year shouldn't really be a blow to his dyno value.

a few top tight ends had good-to-great second seasons (gronk, graham, gates, kelce) but it's a difficult position to learn and a lot of other tight ends take a bit longer to develop. 

tony g: less than 1000 yards and 4 TDs combined in his first two seasons

greg olsen: third season was fine, but he wasn't really an every week start until his 6th year.

vernon davis: didn't really start flirting with "must start" status until his 4th season and he was basically a must start (when healthy) for about 5 or 6 years.

zach ertz: TE9 was his best year until this year, his 5th season.

sure, it's disappointing second season for henry because we were hoping to build on the 488 & 8 season and we all wanted to see a kelce-ish sophomore year but he still put up 100 more yards and caught 9 more passes. and judging by the grades and the general eye-ball consensus around here, i think we'll keep seeing steps forward.

 
CaptainJT said:
Wow. Based on all the replies it seems I am off base on my Hunter Henry assessment.  I agree that when he has been utilized he has put up good numbers but so far in his career it is impossible to rely on him consistently.  Is that because the Chargers feel like they owe Gates? Is it that Gates is a better player? A better blocker? Maybe the team doesnt think Henry is as good as the fans do?  Maybe Henry isnt able to pick up the playbook?
I dont know what the reason is keeping Henry back, but if he were clearly better than Gates, he would play more and get more opportunities. Football is a business and the Chargers main goal is to win games and they must not feel that Henry gives them a better chance to win or they would use him more.
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This is a fair assessment, in that all the gaudy stats and numbers are meaningless if the Chargers just don't use him.

Looking at some numbers, the big stat that would be cause for concern would be the role of the TE overall in the Chargers' passing offense.  Looking at target share over the years:

2013:  27%
2014:  24%
2015:  24%
2016:  26%
2017:  21%

There does seem to be a fairly discernible drop-off this year.  I guess the question is whether that is an aberration or a trend.

This is the game-by-game targets for all TE in 2017:  3-12-5-8-11-8-6-4-4-9-7-13-9-6

I'm not sure I can see much of a trend there.  A lot of variability, and certainly Hunter felt that with two zero-target games.

I guess for me I'm just hard-pressed to see why the Chargers wouldn't use him as a featured player going forward.  As you noted, he's done nothing but produce when given the chance.

 
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CaptainJT said:
Wow. Based on all the replies it seems I am off base on my Hunter Henry assessment.  I agree that when he has been utilized he has put up good numbers but so far in his career it is impossible to rely on him consistently.  Is that because the Chargers feel like they owe Gates? Is it that Gates is a better player? A better blocker? Maybe the team doesnt think Henry is as good as the fans do?  Maybe Henry isnt able to pick up the playbook?
I dont know what the reason is keeping Henry back, but if he were clearly better than Gates, he would play more and get more opportunities. Football is a business and the Chargers main goal is to win games and they must not feel that Henry gives them a better chance to win or they would use him more.
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He clearly is better than Gates and if you don't see that then you are in fact way off base on your HH assessment. Debating if he's top 5 dynasty TE is one thing, debating if he's better then this version is Gates is not.

I don't assume coaches all know best, they err like the rest of us.

 
rschroeder1 said:
This is a fair assessment, in that all the gaudy stats and numbers are meaningless if the Chargers just don't use him.

Looking at some numbers, the big stat that would be cause for concern would be the role of the TE overall in the Chargers' passing offense.  Looking at target share over the years:

2013:  27%
2014:  24%
2015:  24%
2016:  26%
2017:  21%

There does seem to be a fairly discernible drop-off this year.  I guess the question is whether that is an aberration or a trend.

This is the game-by-game targets for all TE in 2017:  3-12-5-8-11-8-6-4-4-9-7-13-9-6

I'm not sure I can see much of a trend there.  A lot of variability, and certainly Hunter felt that with two zero-target games.

I guess for me I'm just hard-pressed to see why the Chargers wouldn't use him as a featured player going forward.  As you noted, he's done nothing but produce when given the chance.
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I think it would be a good exercise to find out how each team the Chargers played ranked against the TE and see if the games where the Chargers had the TE heavily involved were against the weaker teams against the TE's.  It is possible that the Chargers dont see their TE position as a strength (that they can utilize no matter the matchup like a Gronkowski), and determine how they will use their TE based more on their opponents strength/weakness.  Whereas their strengths would lie with Keenan Allen, who when healthy likely has an advantage no matter who is lining up opposite him, or Gordon, who can change the momentum of a game at any time and carry his team to a win.

 
menobrown said:
He clearly is better than Gates and if you don't see that then you are in fact way off base on your HH assessment. Debating if he's top 5 dynasty TE is one thing, debating if he's better then this version is Gates is not.

I don't assume coaches all know best, they err like the rest of us.
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I am not saying that one is better than the other. For some reason the Chargers seem to be noncommital to HH.  It could be as simple as the fact that Rivers trusts Gates, knows what he will do in any given situation and where he will be.
As far as the Chargers dynasty TE thing... we were told for a couple years it was going to be Ladarius Green and that Gates was finished.  Then we were told it was going to be Hunter Henry and Gates was finished.  Well 5 years later Gates is still the #1 TE for the Chargers.  Though this time it really does seem like his last year, who knows...

 
CaptainJT said:
I am not saying that one is better than the other. For some reason the Chargers seem to be noncommital to HH.  It could be as simple as the fact that Rivers trusts Gates, knows what he will do in any given situation and where he will be.
As far as the Chargers dynasty TE thing... we were told for a couple years it was going to be Ladarius Green and that Gates was finished.  Then we were told it was going to be Hunter Henry and Gates was finished.  Well 5 years later Gates is still the #1 TE for the Chargers.  Though this time it really does seem like his last year, who knows...
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Funny how the #2 TE for the Chargers has over twice as many receptions, nearly 3 times the yardage and double the TDs of the still #1 TE for the Chargers.

 
CaptainJT said:
I think it would be a good exercise to find out how each team the Chargers played ranked against the TE and see if the games where the Chargers had the TE heavily involved were against the weaker teams against the TE's.  It is possible that the Chargers dont see their TE position as a strength (that they can utilize no matter the matchup like a Gronkowski), and determine how they will use their TE based more on their opponents strength/weakness.  Whereas their strengths would lie with Keenan Allen, who when healthy likely has an advantage no matter who is lining up opposite him, or Gordon, who can change the momentum of a game at any time and carry his team to a win.
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Den: 3
Mia: 12
KC: 5
Phi: 8
NYG: 11
Oak: 8
Den: 6
NE: 4
JAX: 4
BUF: 9
Dal: 7
Cle: 13
Wash: 9
KC: 6

We know Cleveland is weak against the tight end, so that stands out.  Other than that, I still don't really see anything discernible here.  You bring up a fair question, do the Chargers not see the TE position as one to utilize/feature?  My follow-up would be, is that coming from Anthony Lynn, because the same OC is in place (Wisenhunt) from last year, when the TE was featured moreso in the game plan (although in fairness, Allen was hurt last year).

 
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In 2016, the Chargers attempted 580 passes. Here is a breakdown:

  • 304 (52.4%) to WRs

    Allen 7 (1.2%) - in less than two quarters
  • Tyrell 119 (20.5%)
  • Benjamin 75 (12.9%) - in 14 games
  • Inman 97 (16.7%)
  • Others 6 (1.0%)

[*]148 (25.5%) to TEs

  • Gates 93 (16.0%)
  • Henry 53 (9.1%)
  • Others 2 (0.3%)

[*]106 (18.3%) to RBs

[*]22 (3.8%) non targets (throwaways, spikes, etc.)

The Chargers have attempted 506 passes in 2017 so far. Here is a breakdown:

  • 271 (53.6%) to WRs

    Allen 137 (27.1%)
  • Tyrell 59 (11.7%)
  • Benjamin 52 (10.3%)
  • Mike William 19 (3.8%)
  • Inman 4 (0.8%)

[*]105 (20.8%) to TEs

  • Henry 62 (12.3%)
  • Gates 38 (7.5%)
  • Others 5 (1.0%)

[*]119 (23.5%) to RBs

[*]11 (2.2%) non targets (throwaways, spikes, etc.)

This year's offense was less reliant on the TEs, but was it more due to the TEs or due to the return of Allen and improvement of the RBs in the passing game, which included the emergence of Ekeler?

Even with that, Henry improved his target share. Next year, Gates will be gone, so he should be expected to improve his target share again. Give him Gates' targets this season, and he would be tied with Walker for #3 in TE targets. He might not get quite that high next season, but that level of potential is there, especially when considering how good Henry was when targeted.

 
Just Win Baby said:
This year's offense was less reliant on the TEs, but was it more due to the TEs or due to the return of Allen and improvement of the RBs in the passing game, which included the emergence of Ekeler?
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Given your knowledge of the Chargers, do you see this as a trend for the future or more of a one-off aberration?

 
rschroeder1 said:
Given your knowledge of the Chargers, do you see this as a trend for the future or more of a one-off aberration?
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As long as Allen and the RBs who can catch effectively are healthy, I doubt we will see the Chargers get back to 24%+ of the targets for TEs. But with Gates gone, that isn't necessary for Henry to be a top 5 fantasy TE. As I mentioned, he could get 100 targets next season. That is about 50% more than this season, and about 100% more than his rookie season.

 
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Faust said:
With Antonio Gates gone, Hunter Henry is ready to be the man at tight end for the Chargers
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Hunter Henry says he is 'ready to step up'

Hunter Henry said he is "ready to step up" with Antonio Gates not returning.

On Friday, the Chargers announced they would move on from Gates, who had been with the organization since 2003. While Henry talked about how "incredible" it was to play with a future Hall of Famer, he said he is ready to take over. Fantasy owners who saw him post a 45/579/4 line on just 62 targets last year are also ready to see Henry get a full workload. Henry should be drafted as a clear TE1 and is arguably a top-five option at the position.

Source: Los Angeles Times

May 1 - 9:20 AM

 
Stunner from LA: Chargers’ TE Hunter Henry suffered a season-ending torn ACL today, per league source. Did it during a drill, running downfield, untouched. Second opinion coming Wednesday.

From schefter

 
wow. That sucks. For Henry, for Rivers, and for the offense as a whole.

Chargers had a real chance to make some noise in the playoffs. Now, I'm not so sure.

 
Took him in 15 out of 28 MFL10 live drafts. My highest owned player. Loved the guy this year. So sick.

 
Nipsey said:
Took him in 15 out of 28 MFL10 live drafts. My highest owned player. Loved the guy this year. So sick.
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Had him as my #2 TE this year after Gronk. Figured I'd get him in every draft ranking him that high. Feel bad for him, and the Chargers who have the best roster in the AFC West by a wide margin in the AFC West in my opinion, but it never seems to get to be on the field together.

Would think bringing Gates back is now a priority.

 
Pwingles said:
things are lining up for Bennett or JT to be a charger this year :X
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Coby Fleener. Maybe Mercedes Lewis. I would worry about Bennet or Thomas ever being healthy enough to suit up. 

But if I was GM I'd rather give a conditional pick  for somebody like Scott DeValve, Dion Sims, Stephen Anderson, Jerell Adams, Eric Swoops, Clive Walford, Jace Amaro, or Maxx Williams a shot. Most of those guys will be on a roster bubble so it would cost next to nothing to acquire them. People give up on TE's too quickly imo. The next project is always more appealing than the last. Sims is the only one that is making much $ out of that group.

 
He' and his 25 years experience with Rivers will be more useful to the team for 2018 than anyone new they'll bring in IMO, Think he could still be good for at least a handful of TDs

 
BoltBacker said:
But if I was GM I'd rather give a conditional pick  for somebody like  Maxx Williams 
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With the recent TE additions and Williams' unimpressive start to his Ravens career, I could see this as a decent move.  Williams has been crap but profiles similarly to Henry if I recall.

 
With the injury occuring now...i think the bolts either bring in gates or shift their offense to where a te is just an extra blocker more or less and get keenan mikenwill and tyrell on the field as much as possible.  Bringing in maxx or fleener or julius thomas isnt appealing

The cantrell kid they,drafted is an interesting idea

 
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