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QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (7 Viewers)

Jackson started 7 games to end the regular season in 2018.  The defenses he played ranked 32, 31, 30, 28, 27, 26 and 9.    In his playoff game he was sitting at 3 completions for 25 yards with 9 minutes left in the game. He had been sacked 5 times and was picked once at that point. Derwin James blew an easy pick on 4th and long.  After that Jackson was able to salvage his fantasy day against the Chargers prevent defense.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        There is too much hype at this point.

 
JoeKappBudGrant said:
Jackson started 7 games to end the regular season in 2018.  The defenses he played ranked 32, 31, 30, 28, 27, 26 and 9.    In his playoff game he was sitting at 3 completions for 25 yards with 9 minutes left in the game. He had been sacked 5 times and was picked once at that point. Derwin James blew an easy pick on 4th and long.  After that Jackson was able to salvage his fantasy day against the Chargers prevent defense.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        There is too much hype at this point.
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Excellent post.

 
JoeKappBudGrant said:
Jackson started 7 games to end the regular season in 2018.  The defenses he played ranked 32, 31, 30, 28, 27, 26 and 9.    In his playoff game he was sitting at 3 completions for 25 yards with 9 minutes left in the game. He had been sacked 5 times and was picked once at that point. Derwin James blew an easy pick on 4th and long.  After that Jackson was able to salvage his fantasy day against the Chargers prevent defense.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        There is too much hype at this point.
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There may be too much hype - not arguing that.  But the fact that he was a 21 year old rookie who was being fit into an existing offense not originally tailored to his strengths has to be a part of any analysis of the 7 games he played in.  

 
JoeKappBudGrant said:
Jackson started 7 games to end the regular season in 2018.  The defenses he played ranked 32, 31, 30, 28, 27, 26 and 9.    In his playoff game he was sitting at 3 completions for 25 yards with 9 minutes left in the game. He had been sacked 5 times and was picked once at that point. Derwin James blew an easy pick on 4th and long.  After that Jackson was able to salvage his fantasy day against the Chargers prevent defense.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        There is too much hype at this point.
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So it only took him 9 minutes to salvage his day under the worst of circumstances?

He was also a known-developmental rookie QB that got zero starting prep his entire pre-season.​
 
How many games do you expect Baltimore to be down 20 points this year?  Last year in 17 games they only allowed more than 24 points twice in regulation.

 
Ketamine Dreams said:
So where are we on this guy? Colossal bust who can only run and will get his block knocked off? A guy who is uber talented and the light is turning on and we are expecting dynasty gold? I can’t figure it out. 
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What he is, is a guy who can beat weakly coached teams but come playoff time will eventually hit a team that singles toe WRs and stops him from running. See Tim Tebow. Bill Belicheck will show the world how to stop him later this year.

JoeKappBudGrant said:
How many games do you expect Baltimore to be down 20 points this year?  Last year in 17 games they only allowed more than 24 points twice in regulation.
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That's' the only way they can win. Play solid top 10 D.

 
lod001 your critism of Jackson has really slipped since earlier on in the thread. Has Jackson begun to win you over?

I wish someone would talk poorly of Jackson and drive the price down so I could actually get him in redraft leagues.

 
Biabreakable said:
lod001 your critism of Jackson has really slipped since earlier on in the thread. Has Jackson begun to win you over?

I wish someone would talk poorly of Jackson and drive the price down so I could actually get him in redraft leagues.
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I can no longer tell ya what I really think of his QB skills because someone would hit the report button on this board. Sad but that is what has become of this place. I just got back from a  time out because I made a joke.

Go rad all the bashing I did on Tim Tebow and insert this guys name and that is what I think.

 
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You are wrong about Lamar Jackson

This is a great article about Jackson.  If you already believe, it will help reinforce.  If you think he is a bad passer, and a guaranteed flop, you should read and re-think your position.  I am sure many will dig their heels in, but those with open minds will see that there is a potentially huge opportunity ahead for Jackson and those FFB owners who believe.   Just a couple snippets:

"Of 45 first-round quarterbacks drafted since Peyton Manning with at least 150 attempts their rookie season, Lamar Jackson posted a HIGHER YPA and a BETTER PASSER RATING in his rookie season than these QBs drafted above him over the last several years:

Andrew Luck (1st overall)

Jared Goff (1st overall)

Sam Bradford (1st overall)

Carson Palmer (1st overall)

Peyton Manning (1st overall)

Carson Wentz (2nd overall)

Mitchell Trubisky (2nd overall)

Sam Darnold (3rd overall)

Just to name a few."

"There have been only eleven quarterbacks in NFL history to attempt at least 150 passes when they were 21-years old or younger.

Lamar Jackson was one of eleven.

Where did he rank in passer rating?

Number one of eleven.

He also ranked number two in adjusted yards per attempt and number two in completion rate.

The list includes Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Drew Bledsoe, among others."

 
Warren Sharp

@SharpFootball

You think Lamar Jackson passed poorly last yr. But you always thought he couldn't pass & are are suffering from confirmation bias & negativity bias (greater recall of unpleasant memories). You're wrong. He was the NFL's best 21-yr old passer in history.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
"There have been only eleven quarterbacks in NFL history to attempt at least 150 passes when they were 21-years old or younger.

Lamar Jackson was one of eleven.

Where did he rank in passer rating?

Number one of eleven.

He also ranked number two in adjusted yards per attempt and number two in completion rate.

The list includes Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Drew Bledsoe, among others."
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This is nice trivia, but I don't think it is particularly meaningful.

Let's consider the full sample size, in chronological order. First off, PFR says there are 12, not 11. Here they are:

  1. 1946 Bob Hoernschemeyer
  2. 1947 George Ratterman
  3. 1961 Fran Tarkenton
  4. 1993 Drew Bledsoe
  5. 2005 Alex Smith
  6. 2009 Matt Stafford
  7. 2009 Josh Freeman
  8. 2015 Jameis Winston
  9. 2017 DeShone Kizer
  10. 2018 Sam Darnold
  11. 2018 Josh Rosen
  12. 2018 Lamar Jackson
IMO you can strike the first 7 off this list as not being valid comparisons. NFL offensive philosophy/scheme/coaching and rule changes favoring the passing game have evolved significantly, even since 2009. So to me the arguably valid sample size is 5, which is very small and IMO non-predictive. Considering this sample:

  1. Jackson had the best coaching staff by far
  2. Jackson had the best supporting cast of players by far
  3. Jackson was in the most capable/functional (i.e., least dysfunctional) organization by far
  4. Jackson didn't start until week 11; each of the others started at least 13 regular season games
  5. Yes, his passer rating was the best, but he attempted just 170 passes, well below half of the number of attempts for each of the others
  6. His passer rating (84.5) was only slightly better than Winston's (84.2), and Winston was at least slightly better in other metrics -- Winston was the one who had higher completion percentage and AY/A


ChuckLiddell said:
"Of 45 first-round quarterbacks drafted since Peyton Manning with at least 150 attempts their rookie season, Lamar Jackson posted a HIGHER YPA and a BETTER PASSER RATING in his rookie season than these QBs drafted above him over the last several years:

Andrew Luck (1st overall)

Jared Goff (1st overall)

Sam Bradford (1st overall)

Carson Palmer (1st overall)

Peyton Manning (1st overall)

Carson Wentz (2nd overall)

Mitchell Trubisky (2nd overall)

Sam Darnold (3rd overall)

Just to name a few."
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He was behind these QBs in both YPA and passer rating: Griffin, Mariota, and Bridgewater. He was also behind Winston in YPA.

Wonder why those names weren't mentioned? Probably because that doesn't fit the narrative of the article.

ChuckLiddell said:
If you think he is a bad passer, and a guaranteed flop, you should read and re-think your position.
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I wouldn't go so far to say he is a guaranteed flop, but I do think he is a bad passer by NFL starting QB standards, and I do not expect him to be a long-term starting NFL QB. I am not prepared to re-think my position until and unless he shows sustained passing success in real (non-preseason) games. The running success will inevitably fade.

ChuckLiddell said:
those with open minds will see
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So I suppose that means I don't have an open mind.

 
Just Win Baby said:
This is nice trivia, but I don't think it is particularly meaningful.

Let's consider the full sample size, in chronological order. First off, PFR says there are 12, not 11. Here they are:

  1. 1946 Bob Hoernschemeyer
  2. 1947 George Ratterman
  3. 1961 Fran Tarkenton
  4. 1993 Drew Bledsoe
  5. 2005 Alex Smith
  6. 2009 Matt Stafford
  7. 2009 Josh Freeman
  8. 2015 Jameis Winston
  9. 2017 DeShone Kizer
  10. 2018 Sam Darnold
  11. 2018 Josh Rosen
  12. 2018 Lamar Jackson
IMO you can strike the first 7 off this list as not being valid comparisons. NFL offensive philosophy/scheme/coaching and rule changes favoring the passing game have evolved significantly, even since 2009. So to me the arguably valid sample size is 5, which is very small and IMO non-predictive. Considering this sample:

  1. Jackson had the best coaching staff by far
  2. Jackson had the best supporting cast of players by far
  3. Jackson was in the most capable/functional (i.e., least dysfunctional) organization by far
  4. Jackson didn't start until week 11; each of the others started at least 13 regular season games
  5. Yes, his passer rating was the best, but he attempted just 170 passes, well below half of the number of attempts for each of the others
  6. His passer rating (84.5) was only slightly better than Winston's (84.2), and Winston was at least slightly better in other metrics -- Winston was the one who had higher completion percentage and AY/A


He was behind these QBs in both YPA and passer rating: Griffin, Mariota, and Bridgewater. He was also behind Winston in YPA.

Wonder why those names weren't mentioned? Probably because that doesn't fit the narrative of the article.

I wouldn't go so far to say he is a guaranteed flop, but I do think he is a bad passer by NFL starting QB standards, and I do not expect him to be a long-term starting NFL QB. I am not prepared to re-think my position until and unless he shows sustained passing success in real (non-preseason) games. The running success will inevitably fade.

So I suppose that means I don't have an open mind.
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Instead of taking it personally, why not put the full statement in context.

"those with open minds will see that there is a potentially huge opportunity ahead for Jackson and those FFB owners who believe."  

If you are saying that you dont see a "potentially huge opportunity ahead...", then no, I dont believe you are opening your mind.  There obviously is the potential there.  If you cannot see that, you dont want to see it.  I think you are falling victim to the "confirmation bias & negativity bias" that Warren Sharpe was referencing.  

Also - Jackson's supporting cast was far better than pretty much nobody ever.  His best offensive paymaker was a guy I had never heard of until week 10 - Gus Edwards.  He had pure trash at WR.  His best receving threat was a rookie TE - Mark Andrews.  Thats "the best supporting cast by far"?  Please.  Maybe his OL was better than some of the others, but his skill position players were awful.  Confirmation and negativity bias on full display.

ETA - 

Jackson had the best coaching staff by far - OK, but he still does and they are planning to cater an offense to his strengths.

Jackson had the best supporting cast of players by far - Nonsense

Jackson was in the most capable/functional (i.e., least dysfunctional) organization by far - He still is.

Jackson didn't start until week 11; each of the others started at least 13 regular season games - Why on earth does that matter?  Logically, wouldnt someone get better with experience rather than worse?

Yes, his passer rating was the best, but he attempted just 170 passes, well below half of the number of attempts for each of the others - OK?

His passer rating (84.5) was only slightly better than Winston's (84.2), and Winston was at least slightly better in other metrics -- Winston was the one who had higher completion percentage and AY/A - OK?

 
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ChuckLiddell said:
Instead of taking it personally, why not put the full statement in context.
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Didn't take anything personally. Just reacted to your implication that anyone who doesn't have high expectations for Jackson after reading the article isn't open-minded. :shrug:  

ChuckLiddell said:
If you are saying that you dont see a "potentially huge opportunity ahead...", then no, I dont believe you are opening your mind.  There obviously is the potential there.
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Sure, Jackson has a "huge opportunity," as does pretty much every young QB who gets the chance to be a team's annointed starter in the NFL. Opportunity does not always result in success... plenty of those QBs do not fulfill their apparent potential.

ChuckLiddell said:
Also - Jackson's supporting cast was far better than pretty much nobody ever.
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Supporting cast includes OL, defense, and special teams, not just skill positions.

ChuckLiddell said:
Jackson had the best coaching staff by far - OK, but he still does and they are planning to cater an offense to his strengths.

Jackson had the best supporting cast of players by far - Nonsense

Jackson was in the most capable/functional (i.e., least dysfunctional) organization by far - He still is.
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Sure, he still is. The point is that he had advantages that Darnold, Rosen, Kizer, and Winston didn't have, which helps to explain why he had a better passer rating. And, despite having a better passer rating, he wasn't a good passer.

ChuckLiddell said:
Jackson didn't start until week 11; each of the others started at least 13 regular season games - Why on earth does that matter?  Logically, wouldnt someone get better with experience rather than worse?
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Many believe it is more beneficial for a young QB not to be immediately pushed into starting.

ChuckLiddell said:
Yes, his passer rating was the best, but he attempted just 170 passes, well below half of the number of attempts for each of the others - OK?

His passer rating (84.5) was only slightly better than Winston's (84.2), and Winston was at least slightly better in other metrics -- Winston was the one who had higher completion percentage and AY/A - OK?
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It is often the case that rate metrics like passer rating are better with low volume and regress when scaled up. Winston had almost the same QB rating on 535 pass attempts. IMO that is more impressive. YMMV.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Didn't take anything personally. Just reacted to your implication that anyone who doesn't have high expectations for Jackson after reading the article isn't open-minded. :shrug:  

Sure, Jackson has a "huge opportunity," as does pretty much every young QB who gets the chance to be a team's annointed starter in the NFL. Opportunity does not always result in success... plenty of those QBs do not fulfill their apparent potential.

Supporting cast includes OL, defense, and special teams, not just skill positions.

Sure, he still is. The point is that he had advantages that Darnold, Rosen, Kizer, and Winston didn't have, which helps to explain why he had a better passer rating. And, despite having a better passer rating, he wasn't a good passer.

Many believe it is more beneficial for a young QB not to be immediately pushed into starting.

It is often the case that rate metrics like passer rating are better with low volume and regress when scaled up. Winston had almost the same QB rating on 535 pass attempts. IMO that is more impressive. YMMV.
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If you want to actively look for obscure reasons not to like a player, you will find them.  I am not going to address each item individually because it is clear to me that these are things that cannot be debunked in the eyes of someone who has clearly dug in their heels on this topic - thus I would be wasting my time.  A lyric from the greatest rock and roll band of all time comes to mind though - "You aint gonna learn what you dont want to know".

We will have to agree to disagree on the topic of whether or not Lamar Jackson has a chance to be a valuable fantasy commodity.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
If you want to actively look for obscure reasons not to like a player, you will find them.
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I haven't looked for any obscure reasons not to like him. I have made it clear that I don't think he is a good NFL passer at this point, which hardly seems obscure or controversial. I don't think he can be a long term success as an NFL starter without improving a lot as a passer over what we saw from him last year.

ChuckLiddell said:
We will have to agree to disagree on the topic of whether or not Lamar Jackson has a chance to be a valuable fantasy commodity.
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I have never said he cannot be a valuable fantasy commodity for some period of time. He had fantasy value once he began starting last year. How much value depended on league parameters.

My concern is the period of time he can be valuable. Two issues:

  1. IMO if he keeps running like he did last year, he will inevitably get hurt. I don't think that much running is sustainable. But that is really where his fantasy value came from last season. So to remain valuable as a fantasy player, IMO he will have to get much more production from passing.
  2. If he doesn't improve sufficiently as a passer, it is unlikely BAL can win enough to keep him as their starting QB long term.
I have not said that he has no chance to improve sufficiently as a passer. But his college passing and his NFL passing as a rookie last year do not provide confidence that he can.

I realize there are many people who are all in on him, and I own Jackson in a dynasty league, so I hope he proves me wrong.

 
Jonas Shaffer @jonas_shaffer

Harbaugh on Lamar Jackson: "The haters out there can say what they want, and they can smirk and they can be snarky and they can say whatever they want, but they're all going to be proven wrong. They're going to have to eat their words soon enough, and I'm looking forward to it."
Click to expand...

 
Just Win Baby said:
Supporting cast includes OL, defense, and special teams, not just skill positions.
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I'm OK with your other points, but this one is just off.

We are talking about passer rating for a QB. I am failing to see how defense and special teams really factor in here. I think you can admit he had a pretty poor surrounding cast last year, not even close to the "best supporting cast by far."

 
kutta said:
Just Win Baby said:
Supporting cast includes OL, defense, and special teams, not just skill positions.
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I'm OK with your other points, but this one is just off.

We are talking about passer rating for a QB. I am failing to see how defense and special teams really factor in here. I think you can admit he had a pretty poor surrounding cast last year, not even close to the "best supporting cast by far."
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Well, you ignored that I mentioned OL, so I assume you aren't disagreeing with that.

The reason defense matters is because BAL had the best defense in the NFL, and they allowed fewer than 19 ppg during Jackson's starts. The reason special teams matters is because he had an All Pro PK in Tucker. The combination of Tucker and the defense enabled BAL to run a conservative offense in which Jackson attempted fewer than 25 passes per game. The benefit of that to the passer rating of a rookie QB should be obvious.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Well, you ignored that I mentioned OL, so I assume you aren't disagreeing with that.

The reason defense matters is because BAL had the best defense in the NFL, and they allowed fewer than 19 ppg during Jackson's starts. The reason special teams matters is because he had an All Pro PK in Tucker. The combination of Tucker and the defense enabled BAL to run a conservative offense in which Jackson attempted fewer than 25 passes per game. The benefit of that to the passer rating of a rookie QB should be obvious.
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As others have already pointed out to you, literally none of your subjective opinions have any connection to the statistical facts that Warren Sharp presented, yet here you are talking about Justin effin Tucker while discussing a QB.  Tom Brady is no longer the GOAT guys, he had Adam Vinatieri followed by Gostkowski.  GTFO.

 
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Holy #### you guys have decided that more words win the argument. Can we please get back to actual evaluation rather than penis measuring that can be done via PM. 

I love the upside of Lamar because his floor is great due to his legs. I am not a huge fan of him as a passer just yet but I’m erring on the side that he will surprise me from a passing standpoint and kill it on the ground.  

 
BINGBING said:
As others have already pointed out to you, literally none of your subjective opinions have any connection to the statistical facts that Warren Sharp presented, yet here you are talking about Justin effin Tucker while discussing a QB.  Tom Brady is no longer the GOAT guys, he had Adam Vinatieri followed by Gostkowski.  GTFO.
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Well, the great thing is that we can agree to disagree. And we will start finding out which one of us is right in a few short weeks. :thumbup:  

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Well, you ignored that I mentioned OL, so I assume you aren't disagreeing with that.

The reason defense matters is because BAL had the best defense in the NFL, and they allowed fewer than 19 ppg during Jackson's starts. The reason special teams matters is because he had an All Pro PK in Tucker. The combination of Tucker and the defense enabled BAL to run a conservative offense in which Jackson attempted fewer than 25 passes per game. The benefit of that to the passer rating of a rookie QB should be obvious.
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That’s a stretch and I think you know it.

Usually when talking about a QB’s surrounding cast we are talking about his WR’s, TE’s, RB’s, and OL. Can you at least admit that Lamar had pretty bad skill position players last year?

 
It is not subjective to factor in the quality of the defenses that Jackson started against last year.  The seven teams he started against allowed an average passer rating of 96.  Six of the seven teams finished in the bottom nine in  rushing yards allowed.

 
JoeKappBudGrant said:
It is not subjective to factor in the quality of the defenses that Jackson started against last year.  The seven teams he started against allowed an average passer rating of 96.  Six of the seven teams finished in the bottom nine in  rushing yards allowed.
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Agreed. But that’s not his “surrounding cast.”

 
kutta said:
That’s a stretch and I think you know it.

Usually when talking about a QB’s surrounding cast we are talking about his WR’s, TE’s, RB’s, and OL. Can you at least admit that Lamar had pretty bad skill position players last year?
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It's what I was thinking about when I posted that point. Perhaps I used poor wording to get my point across. :shrug:  

Regardless, Uncle. I won't argue the point any further. We will soon find out if Nate Silver's data held any predictive value whatsoever.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
It's what I was thinking about when I posted that point. Perhaps I used poor wording to get my point across. :shrug:  

Regardless, Uncle. I won't argue the point any further. We will soon find out if Nate Silver's data held any predictive value whatsoever.
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Deal. Agree it will be an interesting year for him. Should be fun to watch.

 
Love him in week 1 against an inexperienced, probably bad D in Miami, bringing out a playbook nobody has seen yet.  I have him in over Wilson and Dak.  May even trade Wilson for a nice haul thats on the table - I believe!

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Love him in week 1 against an inexperienced, probably bad D in Miami, bringing out a playbook nobody has seen yet.  I have him in over Wilson and Dak.  May even trade Wilson for a nice haul thats on the table - I believe!
Click to expand...
Just switched out Russ for him in a pretty standard scoring league.....torn, cuz Russ has a nice matchup and he's home.  But, the phins are soooo bad!  BUT, you how the NFL is.....sometimes when it looks good on paper, it doesn't play out that way.....could Miamis defense play well at home?  

 
The problem I see with Jackson this week is can Miami hang with Baltimore's defense long enough to keep the game close? I can see this being a low scoring, run heavy script with Jackson's upside being limited. Safe floor no doubt though.

 
Almost every single ranking site has Jackson ranked MUCH higher than Goff this week (like 7th vs 18th type disparity).

 
This is going to be fun to watch.  Top 5 potential, but major bust games probably part of the process, with high risk for injury from the running that is so valued.  What the hell, I'm in, took him early so I didn't lose him in my draft (probably too early) in about QB 8 range.  Didn't want to play safe, shoot for the moon and see what happens!

 
I decided Im 100% rolling with Jackson over Goff. Goff's home/road splits from last year are just too much to ignore.

 
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