**Lions at Chargers** (+3, 48.5) 4:05 (1 Viewer)

[BobbyLayne]

6th time in 9 games the Lions have drawn the network's top announcing crew. Last Thanksgiving v the Bills was the last time Detroit drew Jim and Tony.

Short week for the Los Angeles, who headed back home across the country after a 'dominant' win over the hapless Jets offense. Slightly more difficult test in Detroit, which is coming off a bye week. Expect a lot of Lions fans to show up for this game, Detroit's fanbase is travelling well these days regardless of where they are playing. This is the healthiest the Lions have been since Week 1. A plethora of injuries have forced 7 OL combinations in 8 games but this week everyone will be back to their normal starting assignments up front.

The Chargers are equally healthy; ED/LB Joey Bosa (DNP - illness) and QB Justin Herbert (FP - finger) were the only two on the injury report.

For Detroit, this week they are welcoming back RB David Montgomery and two Pro Bowl OL, LG Jonash Jackson and C Frank Ragnow. The Lions practice report had reserves RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (back) and DI Levi Onwuzurike (hip) listed as out for Thursday's practice session, while backup OL Dan Skipper (ribs) and the newly acquired Donovan Peoples-Jones (ribs) were limited participants. Vaitai and Onwuzurike both missed all of 2022 while getting spinal fusion surgery (L4-L5 for the OL, L4-L5 for the DL.) Hal has started 3 games while Levi has been limited to 66 snaps.

101 out of 106 active roster players being FP with not more than 2 being at risk of not suiting is about as good as you can hope for at this stage of the season. The Texans had 23 players on the injury report this week lol.

It is notable that head coach Dan Campbell named reliable Graham Glasgow as the starting RG going forward; he has started 6 games already at three positions. When we last saw the Lions GG, an 8 year veteran, was calling the line protection in lieu of Ragnow (out - calf, toe) while Kayode Awosika was making his 4th career start at LG and 5th round rookie Colby Sorsdal was making his NLF starting debut. They kept Jared Goff clean (0 sacks, 3 hits) while paving the way for 222 rushing yards. The capable job the reserve OL have performed has been an unsung aspect of Detroit's solid 6-2 start.

---

The Chargers are 2.5 games back of the Chiefs in the AFC West and a full game behind the red hot Bengals for the last Wild Card spot (CIN and PIT are also 5-3.)

Detroit has a 1.5 game lead over Minnesota and three games over Green Bay. Currently the number 2 seed, with a favorable remaining schedule. Heady stuff for Lions fans, who haven't been to the playoffs since 2016, last won a division title (then called the NFC Central) in 1993, and last hosted a playoff game when George Herbert Walker Bush (#41) was the President. The franchise has one playoff win in the last 66 years.

Remaining games for the two teams:

Week	Detroit Lions	Los Angeles Chargers
10.	at LAC	DET
11.	CHI	at GB
12.	GB (Thanksgiving)	BAL
13.	at NO	at NE
14.	at CHI	DEN
15.	DEN	at LV
16.	at MIN	BUF
17.	at DAL	at DEN
18.	MIN	KC

---

Fantasy relevant players

	Honolulu Blue & Silver	Powder Blue & Sunshine Gold
QB	Goff QB6	Herbert QB5
WR	ARSB WR2	Allen WR5, Johnston WR45
RB	Gibbs RB18, Montgomery RB19	Ekeler RB2
TE	LaPorta TE1	Everett TE18
K	Patterson K8	Dicker K6
DST	DST20	DST22

 

[BobbyLayne]

@FBG Moderator @Joe Bryant

Please pin at your leisure

@Ministry of Pain

'sup

 

[Rubi]

Chargers defense has looked good the last two games against The Bears and Jets. This is a step up.
It's sort of a homecoming for Goff and sort of an indoor game.
Chargers on a short week,Lions off a bye. Seems like a lot of this sort of thing in this years schedule.
Chargers are a home dog but will they have a home crowd advantage?
I usually love home dogs,but in this one...

Motor City Lions- 27
Other Team In Los Angeles- 23

 

[doeseatplace]

Monty and LaPorta are going to feast on the Bolts

 

[BobbyLayne]

PFF Season Long Team Grades	Detroit Lions	Los Angeles Chargers
Points For	25.0 (9th)	25.1 (8th)
Points Against	20.6 (14th)	21.8 (21st)
Overall	87.0 (6th)	76.7 (17th)
Offense	82.1 (3rd)	69.5 (19th)
Passing	84.8 (3rd)	72.1 (14th)
Pass Blocking	75.3 (3rd)	63.4 (18th)
Receiving	75.2 (7th)	73.6 (11th)
Rushing	79.8 (12th)	67.2 (29th)
Run Blocking	72.3 (3rd)	48.3 (31st)
Defense	72.5 (15th)	71.6 (18th)
Run Defense	70.6 (8th)	61.2 (24th)
Tackling	59.4 (17th)	69.0 (9th)
Pass Rush	70.3 (19th)	73.1 (14th)
Coverage	70.2 (17th)	74.2 (15th)
Special Teams	72.2 (22nd)	78.4 (15th)

 

[Snotbubbles]

I don't know what to make of the Chargers. They're at home, and it's tough to win on the road in the NFL. For that, I give them the slight edge in this game. But I certainly don't feel strong about them winning.

 

[rzrback77]

I don't know what to make of the Chargers. They're at home, and it's tough to win on the road in the NFL. For that, I give them the slight edge in this game. But I certainly don't feel strong about them winning.

Every “home” Charger game I have watched has them with far fewer fans, particularly the noisy fans.

Lions by 10 or more.

Do Lions’ fans see 50/50 for Montgomery/Gibbs?

 

[BoltNlava]

I don't know what to make of the Chargers. They're at home, and it's tough to win on the road in the NFL. For that, I give them the slight edge in this game. But I certainly don't feel strong about them winning.

The Chargers will find an unexplainable/really unusual way of losing this close game in the 4th qtr. Please don't even worry about this. It's in the bag. You'll just have to wait until there is less than a minute left. There WILL BE a little drama to make you think -Oh no- but then relief as whatever it is that the Chargers do to lose...they will do it. It's called 'Chargering' and we are numb to it.

 

[doeseatplace]

The Chargers ability to lose games in so many gut-wrenching ways is uncanny

I watched Blake Bortles throw 2 INTs in the final 2 minutes of a game against the Philip Rivers-led Bolts….and the Jags still won.

And if you’re looking for more agony, google “Big Game Nate”, and give yourself 30 minutes to scroll through the search results

 

[BobbyLayne]

Lions final practice report for Week 10

Ruled OUT​

• G Halapoulivaati Vaitai (back)

Vaitai took part in a limited practice on Tuesday but was unable to practice the rest of the week, so his being ruled out was anticipated. With Graham Glasgow entrenched as the team’s starter at right guard and Vaitai relegated to a depth role, his absence from this game won’t be as significant as it would have been in the past.

Doubtful​

• DL Levi Onwuzurike (hip)

Onwuzurike practiced early in the week but missed practices on Thursday and Friday, which is typically not a great sign of his availability. That being said, he was a healthy scratch the last two games, so it’s unclear if he was headed for playing time this week anyway.

Questionable​

• WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (ribs)
• OL Dan Skipper (ribs) — Full practice on Friday

 

[BobbyLayne]

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Player	Injury	Wednesday*	Thursday	Friday	Game Status
OLB Joey Bosa	Illness	----	DNP	Full	----
CB Michael Davis	Illness	----	----	DNP	----
QB Justin Herbert	Left Finger	Full	Full	Full	----

 

[BobbyLayne]

Detroit Offense

Offensive Starters	Name	Snaps	PFF Grade
QB	Jared Goff	569	88.3 (4th of 37)
WR	Amon-Ra St Brown	463 (7g)	84.4 (9th of 113)
WR	Josh Reynolds	422	74.1 (35h of 113)
TE	Sam LaPorta	469	72.7 (7th of 102)
TE	Brock Wright	279	41.8 (98th of 102)
HB	Jahmyr Gibbs	246 (6g)	73.6 (16th 0f 63)
LT	Taylor Decker	436 (6g)	75.4 (16th of 61)
LG	Jonah Jackson	338 (5g)	63.2 (28th of 60)
C	Frank Ragnow	486 (7g)	77.5 (5th of 32)
RG	Graham Glasgow	455 (7g)	77.1 (4th of 60)
RT	Penei Sewell	572	82.4 (4th of 61)
Offensive Reserves	Name	Snaps	PFF Grade
HB	David Montgomery	201 (5g)	69.6 (34th of 63)
LG	Halapoulivaati Vaitai	192 (3g)	68.3
WR	Kalif Raymond	181	75.2 (32nd of 113)
WR	Marvin Jones Jr (released)	178 (6g)	43.8
LG	Kayode Awosika	134 (3g)	69.5
RG	Colby Sorsdal	122 (2g)	47.8
HB	Craig Reynolds	119	80.1 (7th of 63)
WR	Jameson Williams	111 (4g)	46.0 (113th OF 113)
WR	Antoine Green	89 (7g)	50.2
RT	Matt Nelson (IR)	85 (3g)	58.0
RG-RT	Dan Skipper	45 (3g)	56.6
FB	Jason Cabinda (IR-R)	27 (3g)	40.4
TE	James Mitchell	26 (5g)	43.3
TE	Darrell Daniels	22 (3g)	69.9
HB	Zonovan Knight (IR)	9 (2g)	62.1
HB	Devine Ozigbo	8 (2g)	66.5
WR	Dylan Drummond	5 (1g)	59.1
FB	Malcolm Rodriquez	4 (3g)	60.0
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	3 (1g)	60.6
K	Riley Patterson	43	60.3

 

[BobbyLayne]

I don't know what to make of the Chargers. They're at home, and it's tough to win on the road in the NFL. For that, I give them the slight edge in this game. But I certainly don't feel strong about them winning.

Their defense has played well in three games: Raiders, Bears, Jets. There offense is able to do just enough - their only other win was 28-24 over Minnesota at home. Last two years they’re 2-9 v teams with a winning record; losses this year have been to MIA TEN DAL KC.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Interesting (to me) the Chargers elected to spend the night in NYC. Had a nice team meal in the ballroom of their hotel, team was feeling loose after a dominant win. Get a good nights sleep, start the rest & recovery cycle, then travel. Smart move IMO.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Interesting (to me) the Chargers elected to spend the night in NYC. Had a nice team meal in the ballroom of their hotel, team was feeling loose after a dominant win. Get a good nights sleep, start the rest & recovery cycle, then travel. Smart move IMO.

I have no data to support this, but it would seem the 13/6 difference in days off should be an advantage for the bye week team, maybe slightly more than the standard 14/7 split we see a lot more of.
Of course on the other side is that Campbell is 0-2 off a bye. Maybe that can be changed up like the slow start to the season they also had his first 2 years?

 

[BobbyLayne]

Of course on the other side is that Campbell is 0-2 off a bye. Maybe that can be changed up like the slow start to the season they also had his first 2 years?

In context that's such a lazy cite (not directed toward you friend, I just heard it a lot this week on preview shows/YT clips & it's said like you're supposed to react "oh wow, I had no idea".)

• Y1 - team was 0-8, ARSB was an inconsistent rookie a month away from his incredible YE run, team was three weeks from it's first win under Campbell, A Lynn had just been demoted from OC. With MCDC calling plays for the first time they went to Pittsburgh and tied the Steelers 16-16. Ryan Santoso, who is probably teaching math in St Paul, MN these days, missed an XP and what could have been the go ahead 48 yarder. For where they were at then, with the roster they had after stripping it down, baby steps man.
• Y2 - team was 1-4 but boy they gave Dallas all they could handle and then some. Led at halftime on the road, were down 10-6, 1st & goal at the 1, game was about to take a big swing.....and Jamaal fumbled. Wut? Few punts later Jared had an awful stretch, INT and strip sack fumble - Cowboys scored two short field TDs off the turnovers.

Correct, Campbell has never won coming out of the bye.

 

[Tau837]

The Chargers are equally healthy; ED/LB Joey Bosa (DNP - illness) and QB Justin Herbert (FP - finger) were the only two on the injury report.

You are missing the key players on IR in this summary. The Chargers are missing 3 starters on offense who are on IR:

• C Corey Linsley
• WR2 Mike Williams
• WR3 Josh Palmer

Linsley is their 2nd most important player on offense behind Herbert; the OL play has been much worse since he went on IR.

Entering the season, it seemed the Chargers had a deep set of targets but missing 2 of their top 3 WRs is tough and leaves them with this behind WR1 Allen:

• Rookie 1st round pick Quentin Johnston, who has not been very involved in the offense up to this point - 14/128/0 receiving on 23 targets in 245 snaps (45%)
• Veteran Jalen Guyton, who played his first game last week since tearing his ACL last season - still shaking off the rust and would have slotted in as WR5 to open the season if healthy
• Rookie 4th round pick Derrius Davis, who was primarily drafted to be a returner on special teams but has 15 touches for 113 YFS and 0 TDs in 62 snaps on offense, with 8 receptions and 7 rushing attempts
• Practice squad signee Simi Fehoko, who has played 19 snaps on offense and has 1 reception
• Practice squad signee Keelan Doss, who has played 20 snaps on offense and has 0 touches

Linsley, Williams, and Palmer all played in the first 3 games. The Chargers averaged 417 yards and 29 points per game in those 3. Williams and Linsley haven't played since game 3, and Palmer got hurt in game 7. In the last 5 games, the Chargers offense has averaged 246 yards and 18 points per game (ignoring a punt return TD last week).

Some of the stark difference there has to do with playing tougher defenses over the past 5 games and some has to do with Herbert playing with a fractured finger, but there is no question that losing these 3 starters has been very impactful.

Their defense has played well in three games: Raiders, Bears, Jets. There offense is able to do just enough - their only other win was 28-24 over Minnesota at home. Last two years they’re 2-9 v teams with a winning record; losses this year have been to MIA TEN DAL KC.

Yeah, it just so happens the defense has played well in all 3 games in which it has faced backup QBs - rookie O'Connell in his first ever start instead of Jimmy G (LV); rookie Bagent in his first ever start instead of Fields (CHI); and Zach Wilson instead of Rodgers (NYJ). I wonder if there is any correlation there.

I'm not holding my breath for a strong defensive showing against this impressive Lions offense.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The Chargers are equally healthy; ED/LB Joey Bosa (DNP - illness) and QB Justin Herbert (FP - finger) were the only two on the injury report.

You are missing the key players on IR in this summary. The Chargers are missing 3 starters on offense who are on IR:

• C Corey Linsley
• WR2 Mike Williams
• WR3 Josh Palmer

Linsley is their 2nd most important player on offense behind Herbert; the OL play has been much worse since he went on IR.

Entering the season, it seemed the Chargers had a deep set of targets but missing 2 of their top 3 WRs is tough and leaves them with this behind WR1 Allen:

• Rookie 1st round pick Quentin Johnston, who has not been very involved in the offense up to this point - 14/128/0 receiving on 23 targets in 245 snaps (45%)
• Veteran Jalen Guyton, who played his first game last week since tearing his ACL last season - still shaking off the rust and would have slotted in as WR5 to open the season if healthy
• Rookie 4th round pick Derrius Davis, who was primarily drafted to be a returner on special teams but has 15 touches for 113 YFS and 0 TDs in 62 snaps on offense, with 8 receptions and 7 rushing attempts
• Practice squad signee Simi Fehoko, who has played 19 snaps on offense and has 1 reception
• Practice squad signee Keelan Doss, who has played 20 snaps on offense and has 0 touches

Linsley, Williams, and Palmer all played in the first 3 games. The Chargers averaged 417 yards and 29 points per game in those 3. Williams and Linsley haven't played since game 3, and Palmer got hurt in game 7. In the last 5 games, the Chargers offense has averaged 246 yards and 18 points per game (ignoring a punt return TD last week).

Some of the stark difference there has to do with playing tougher defenses over the past 5 games and some has to do with Herbert playing with a fractured finger, but there is no question that losing these 3 starters has been very impactful.

Their defense has played well in three games: Raiders, Bears, Jets. There offense is able to do just enough - their only other win was 28-24 over Minnesota at home. Last two years they’re 2-9 v teams with a winning record; losses this year have been to MIA TEN DAL KC.

Yeah, it just so happens the defense has played well in all 3 games in which it has faced backup QBs - rookie O'Connell in his first ever start instead of Jimmy G (LV); rookie Bagent in his first ever start instead of Fields (CHI); and Zach Wilson instead of Rodgers (NYJ). I wonder if there is any correlation there.

I'm not holding my breath for a strong defensive showing against this impressive Lions offense.

Thanks - was going to cover more injuries when I made posts for the Lions D, Chargers O and Chargers D.

Lions have had 10 players go on IR, 7 of those are done for the season. 10 man games missed on the OL (7 combinations used), shoot one game we had a rookie G log 36 snaps as the 4th string RT bc the 2nd and 3rd stringers both got hurt - Decker was out, Penei swung over, both backups got hurt lol. Monty has been hurt twice (3g missed), Gibbs missed a couple, ARSB missed only the 2nd start of his career (team scored 42 points), the defense lost both it's starting S, a guy they signed to be their #1 CB - coming off ACL - tore his other ACL, highest graded defender (rookie Slot CB Brian Branch) missed several games, D-line has been banged up all year, their best designated pass rusher broke his leg, the spiritual heart and soul of the team (CJ Gardner-Johnson) went out after 2 weeks, et al.

But that's life in the NFL, everyone has injuries. Every week. Go with what you got, next man up.

Detroit embodies that cliché as well as any team around, they literally do not care. You're one of 69 players and we need all of ya. The mentality is never just don't do any harm, no, they expect production. Detroit is built for adversity, the mentality is they expect practice squad players to do their job, they're not surprised when 3rd and 4th stringers step up, that's why they were there in the first place.

Past Lions teams would have folded and used the injuries as an excuse. That doesn't fly on the Brand New Lions. It's just a mentality, seems so simple, every team says it, but in Detroit they actually believe it.

 

[Ilov80s]

Big game for Detroit because it's really the last "tough" game until Dallas on New Years weekend.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Big game for Detroit because it's really the last "tough" game until Dallas on New Years weekend.

Big game bc there’s the path to the one seed doesn’t allow for missteps. Let down games and weeks they bring their C game need to still result in dubs (which good teams do.) Stakes are higher this week year, every week matters.

 

[Despyzer]

69 players

That's hot.

 

[Tau837]

Lions have had 10 players go on IR, 7 of those are done for the season.

How many starters? (I don't know the answer.)

10 man games missed on the OL (7 combinations used), shoot one game we had a rookie G log 36 snaps as the 4th string RT bc the 2nd and 3rd stringers both got hurt - Decker was out, Penei swung over, both backups got hurt lol. Monty has been hurt twice (3g missed), Gibbs missed a couple, ARSB missed only the 2nd start of his career (scored 38 points), the defense lost both it's starting S, a guy they signed to be their #1 CB - coming off ACL - tore his other ACL, highest graded defender (rookie Slot CB Brian Branch) missed several games, D-line has been banged up all year, their best designated pass rusher broke his leg, the spiritual heart and soul of the team (CJ Gardner-Johnson) went out after 2 weeks, et al.

We are talking about this upcoming game, right? How much of this is relevant to this game? Can't tell.

I didn't post any of that to try to compete on who has had a tougher go with injuries this season, who has the best next man up mentality, etc. I was addressing this game.

 

[BobbyLayne]

We are talking about this upcoming game, right? How much of this is relevant to this game? Can't tell.

I didn't post any of that to try to compete on who has had a tougher go with injuries this season, who has the best next man up mentality, etc. I was addressing this game.

You were expecting Williams and Palmer to play this week? Because I was not expecting James Houston IV or Emmanuel Moseley or CJGJ to suit up for Detroit.

 

[BobbyLayne]

On the road all day, will post more later.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Joe Bryant
@FBG Moderator

-I would just like to say, Bobby does an outstanding job of not just firing up a Lions' game thread, he makes you feel like you really know the team as he fills up the thread with stats and observations.

This is the official game thread for Det/LA so if you would be so kind and pin it with the others tomorrow morning, much appreciated.

 

[FarFromHome]

Wow. Thanks for giving me such a great detailed preview. Great job man

 

[BobbyLayne]

L.A. Chargers Defense

Defensive Starters	Name	Snaps	PFF Grade
LB	Kenneth Murray Jr.	533	62.9
CB	Asante Samuel Jr.	526	75.1
CB	Michael Davis	498	50.2
S	Derwin James Jr.	436	60.7
ED	Khalil Mack	436	88.9
CB	Ja'Sir Taylor	398	54.4
ED	Tuli Tuipulotu (5 GS but now a key reserve)	368	70.4
S	Alohi Gilman (speculation could shadow ARSB)	346	85.7
LB	Erick Kendricks	342	74.8
DI	Sebastian Joseph-Day	312	63.3
Defensive Reserves	Name	Snaps	PFF Grade
ED	Joey Bosa (3 GS in 7 g including the last 2)	260	78.9
S	Dean Marlowe	242	62.9
DI	Nick Williams	235	57.7
DI	Morgan Fox	216	63.9
LB	Nick Niemann	157	68.2
DI	Scott Matlock	131	35.7
ED	Chris Rumph II	103	58.2
CB	J.C. Jackson (traded)	85	48.2
S	Raheem Layne (IR)	76	61.5
S	J.T. Woods (NFI-R)	61	54.8
DI	Otito Ogbonnia	37	82.9
CB	Deane Leonard	27	74.3
LB	Daiyan Henley (rookie starting to come on)	27	64.7
CB	Essang Bassey	27	80.6
S	AJ Finley	22	63.8
ED	Brevin Allen	12	29.8
ED	Andrew Farmer	10	55.5
LB	Amen Ogbongbemiga	5	71.1

 

[BobbyLayne]

Had hoped to post the Chargers offense and Lions defense but probably won't get to it.

It's pretty simple though, right? The Chargers have three offensive stars and Detroit has Hutchinson. Giddy up, LFG. /s Personally I don't think either of these defenses can stop the offenses.

Dealing with some family stuff. While I was killing time in the hospital today I wrote out some random notes.

---

NFL Pressure Leaders:

1. Maxx 53
2. Micah 49
3. Hutch 46

Lions PR loves trotting this one out bc then they can gloss over the fact he has 4.5 sacks with basically the second most true pass set opportunities.

The Lions have the fourth-slowest average time to pressure at 2.65 seconds. Quarterbacks’ average time to throw, the Lions have allowed the second longest time to throw at 2.99 seconds. And then average time to sack, the Lions have the slowest average time to sack in the NFL at 4.17 seconds.

Detroit ranks 25th in pass rush win rate, 30th in run stop win rate on defense and 15th in pass block win rate on offense and 23rd in run block win rate. Those of us who have closely observed Aaron Glenn have noted he is not a DC known to make adjustments. Their basic philosophy is "Here is what we do. We think our dudes can beat your dudes." When things go south, we hear the same thing over and over: "Guys have to trust the man beside them. Do your job and trust your teammate will do his job. The scheme is fine, we just have to win our individual battles."

Man do I sincerely hope that guy gets a HC gig in the offseason. Would be nice to upgrade and land two 3rd round picks for doing so.

---

Whenever there is a close spread, we often revert to cliches like “well this will come down to the turnover battle.” Since most close games do follow that narrative, usually it’s a pretty safe branch to step out on.

Consider this:

• 2023 Detroit Lions are even steven on that front, with the 5th fewest 10 turnovers (5 INT, 5 FL) AND 6th fewest 10 takeaways (7 INT 3 FR.) Record: 6-2-0
• 2023 LA Chargers have never lost the turnover battle this season; it’s been 11 games since they lost it in a game. This year they’re 4-1 when they win it, and 0-3 when the turnovers are even. They are second with only 6 turnovers (4 INT, league-low 2 FL) AND 15 takeaways (6 INT, league-best 9 FR.) Record: 4-4-0

Well this week I’m going with another cliche: this game will be won in the trenches. The Chargers have 3 awesome Edge rushers and Detroit has two elite Offensive Tackles. Something’s gotta give.

---

Sunday marks six weeks since Justin Herbert’s bone punctured the skin of his left middle finger, completing the timeline originally given for him to heal from the injury. Whether Herbert plays without the splint he’s had on since breaking the finger is yet to be determined.

---

Power rankings are a tedious exercise with little value, but play along with me for a minute.

Chargers Wins:

• On the road #12 Vikings (really? OK I grabbed CBS PR, they moved them up 11 spots lol)
• #23 Raiders
• #29 Bears
• #20 Jets

Chargers Losses:

• #8 Dolphins
• #21 Titans
• #7 Cowboys
• #4 Chiefs

Lions Wins:

• On the road #4 Chiefs
• #22 Falcons
• On the road #28 Packers
• #32 Panthers
• On the road #25 Buccaneers
• #23 Raiders

Lions Losses:

• #11 Seahawks
• On the road #2 Ravens

Confession: I started this blurb with the thought “OK let me demonstrate how weak those Bolts are by showing they only beat bad teams and lose to good teams.” Typing out the Lions wins was pretty humbling TBH. What the heck have we accomplished?

First NFC team to ever beat Mahomes in Kansas City. OK, can't take that away. Do you get a banner for that?

---

Have to keep winning. Chargers are hungry, this one is going to be a dogfight. Get out of here with a hard fought dub and this season might end up being something special.

Detroit 30 Villains 21

 

[travdogg]

This feels like the difference between a top-8 team and a .500-ish team. I think there are points aplenty in this one.

For the Chargers, I think they end up spreading it out more than normal as I think the Lions try to bracket Keenan Allen. That isn't what their defense typically does, but I think they make an exception with the Chargers on the #4 and #5 WRs.

For the Lions, this feels like more of a pass heavy gamescript to me. I think Amon-Ra could have a monster game, and I wouldn't be surprised if Josh Reynolds was a sneaky good start this week. I do think we see a 50-50 split at RB, and I wonder of the Chargers lock Derwin James onto Sam LaPorta.

I like the Lions 30-21.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Detroit Defense

Position	Player	Snaps	PFF Grade
CB	Cameron Sutton	489	61.7
LB	Alex Anzalone	480	72.6 (39th out of 155; 21st amongst starting LB)
ED	Aidan Hutchinson	444	90.0 (6th out of 180 ED players graded)
CB	Jerry Jacobs	429	65.7
S	Kerby Joseph	355	59.4 what is this garbage? NFL passer rating 43.6 0 TDs allowed & balling out
			RDEF 80.0 TACK 81.1 PRUSH 87.4 and then COV 51.9? put down the crack pipe. I digress...we move on.
S	Tracy Walker III	354	66.2
DI	Alim McNeill	333	84.6 (7th out of 191 DI players graded)
LB	Derrick Barnes	302	63.6
DI	John Cominsky	283	59.1
Slot CB/S	has been stellar when healthy - best defender in the back 7, great on run D or coverage Brian Branch	276	77.5 (among 54 rookie DBs: DEF 3rd RDEF 3rd COV 2nd)
LB	Jack Campbell	266	46.3
DI	Benito Jones	253	43.8
ED	Charles Harris	236	55.7
CB	follow #25 bc that's where the Chargers will be throwing it but the coaches love him Will Harris	175	46.3
S	devastating loss - torn pec. very vocal leader & hard hitter C.J. Gardner-Johnson	134 (IR)	70.7
ED	Romeo Okwara	119	71.5
DI	Lions are 4-1 when Buggs is active #freebuggs Isaiah Buggs	110	69.3
S	Ifeatu Melifonwu	100	75.8
DI	Levi Onwuzurike	66	59.2
LB	Malcolm Rodriguez	58	38.7
ED	Josh Paschal	56 (IR-R)	63.7
ED	Julian Okwara	44 (IR-R)	61.4
ED	James Houston	31 (IR-R)	47.2
DI	Brodric Martin	11	49.6
CB	Khalil Dorsey	10 (IR-R)	65.8
LB	Jalen Reeves-Maybin	5	62.8
CB	Steven Gilmore	2	61.8
CB	tore left ACL 2022 (with SF) tore right ACL 2023 on his 2nd snap Emmanuel Moseley	2 (IR)	60.6

 

[BobbyLayne]

Chargers Offense

#10, #13, and #30 are really good

 

[BobbyLayne]

All 22 Films: Can the Lions Defense solve Justin Herbert & the L.A. Chargers?

 

[loser]

at Aaron Glenn getting a head coaching job.

 

[BobbyLayne]

User name checks out

---

Top NFL Head Coaching Candidates for 2024 and Well Beyond

Ben Johnson, unsurprisingly, is a lock as the next hot candidate.

First Defensive Coordinator listed is Aaron Glenn.

As much as Dan Campbell is an emotional tone-setter in the Lions’ building, Glenn, a three-time Pro Bowler cornerback, generates immediate respect. He has interviewed for head coaching jobs each of the past two seasons. While this was not stated to me, one factor to consider for Glenn is his access to really strong offensive coaches: Beyond Ben Johnson, the Lions are thought to be a few talented coaches deep. Glenn has also worked with Kyle Shanahan in Cleveland and Sean Payton in New Orleans.

I asked Bill Parcells, who had Glenn as a coach twice and still keeps in contact with his former player, for his thoughts: “He’s very bright, interested. He’s serious about his job, very dependable, reliable. He put the work in. He was just one of those people you never have to worry about, whether he’s going to prepare himself. I’ve talked to him after he’s gotten into coaching, he spent a lot of time on this. He’s very energetic and always looking to learn something. That’s the best part about him. He’s really a bright young guy.”

I asked Parcells whether Glenn’s curiosity and drive to learn were uniquely valuable traits when it comes to coaching.

“You have to have that,” Parcells said. “None of us have all the answers.”

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Hoping it won't happen but there is a more than decent chance Lions lose both coordinators in the off-season. Something that quite literally happens to the best of teams.

 

[Tau837]

We are talking about this upcoming game, right? How much of this is relevant to this game? Can't tell.

I didn't post any of that to try to compete on who has had a tougher go with injuries this season, who has the best next man up mentality, etc. I was addressing this game.

You were expecting Williams and Palmer to play this week? Because I was not expecting James Houston IV or Emmanuel Moseley or CJGJ to suit up for Detroit.

Obviously not. I was pointing out that their absence has had significant negative impact on the Chargers offense, and that wasn't accounted for in your game-related information. It's not a criticism, I was adding context to the information you provided.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Hoping it won't happen but there is a more than decent chance Lions lose both coordinators in the off-season. Something that quite literally happens to the best of teams.

They've been training Tanner Engstrand for just such an inevitabiliy. TE coach last year, Passing Game Coordinator this year. He's been shadowing Ben's pregame prep all of this year since he doesn't have to coach any specific positional group.

Less clear who would replace AG. Hoping it is someone creative who can make adjustments in game. He's a leader of men and I actually think he'll be a better HC than a DC. Good dude.

Hope they both crush their next gig, I would love to see an MCDC coaching tree. Would be hilarious given how little respect the media gave the hire 34 months ago (& to some extent, still do.)

edit word

 

[BobbyLayne]

We are talking about this upcoming game, right? How much of this is relevant to this game? Can't tell.

I didn't post any of that to try to compete on who has had a tougher go with injuries this season, who has the best next man up mentality, etc. I was addressing this game.

You were expecting Williams and Palmer to play this week? Because I was not expecting James Houston IV or Emmanuel Moseley or CJGJ to suit up for Detroit.

Obviously not. I was pointing out that their absence has had significant negative impact on the Chargers offense, and that wasn't accounted for in your game-related information. It's not a criticism, I was adding context to the information you provided.

Context is important.

Similarly, the grittiness of Detroit is typified by the way they have overcoming potentially devastating injuries to leaders of their team on both sides of the ball.

GL today.

 

[Tau837]

L.A. Chargers Defense

Defensive Starters	Name	Snaps	PFF Grade
LB	Kenneth Murray Jr.	533	62.9
CB	Asante Samuel Jr.	526	75.1
CB	Michael Davis	498	50.2
S	Derwin James Jr.	436	60.7
ED	Khalil Mack	436	88.9
CB	Ja'Sir Taylor	398	54.4
ED	Tuli Tuipulotu (5 GS but now a key reserve)	368	70.4
S	Alohi Gilman (speculation could shadow ARSB)	346	85.7
LB	Erick Kendricks	342	74.8
DI	Sebastian Joseph-Day	312	63.3
Defensive Reserves	Name	Snaps	PFF Grade
ED	Joey Bosa (3 GS in 7 g including the last 2)	260	78.9
S	Dean Marlowe	242	62.9
DI	Nick Williams	235	57.7
DI	Morgan Fox	216	63.9
LB	Nick Niemann	157	68.2
DI	Scott Matlock	131	35.7
ED	Chris Rumph II	103	58.2
CB	J.C. Jackson (traded)	85	48.2
S	Raheem Layne (IR)	76	61.5
S	J.T. Woods (NFI-R)	61	54.8
DI	Otito Ogbonnia	37	82.9
CB	Deane Leonard	27	74.3
LB	Daiyan Henley (rookie starting to come on)	27	64.7
CB	Essang Bassey	27	80.6
S	AJ Finley	22	63.8
ED	Brevin Allen	12	29.8
ED	Andrew Farmer	10	55.5
LB	Amen Ogbongbemiga	5	71.1

Good info but you only identified 10 starters and for some reason only identified 1 IDL with 3 CBs. The Chargers starters tomorrow should be:

1. IDL Austin Johnson
2. IDL Sebastian Joseph-Day
3. Edge Khalil Mack
4. Edge Joey Bosa
5. ILB Eric Kendricks
6. ILB Kenneth Murray
7. Outside CB Michael Davis
8. Outside CB Asante Samuel Jr.
9. S Derwin James
10. S Alohi Gilman
11. Either IDL Nick Williams or Slot CB Ja'Sir Taylor, depending on what formation they open in

 

[Ilov80s]

I have a hard time seeing the Lions win today. I think Detroit has the talent to match the Chargers but just the road trip to Cali, the ebb and flow of the NFL season,etc. makes me think this is a loss. I will be happy to be proven wrong though.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Good info but you only identified 10 starters and for some reason only identified 1 IDL with 3 CBs.

Yeah just listed out the 10 guys with the most snaps + put a note on the first reserve (Bosa) that he was starting again. Think I wrote that in 19th hour of the day lol.

On Detroit's side we rarely play base 4-3. It’s more like 4-3 with 3-4 personnel on 1st/early rushing downs & the nickel as the base. Slot Corner Brian Branch is a downhill box safety who functions as a fast light Will.

The D line is where short descriptors truly fail.

• Hutch is generally a hand in the dirt Wide 9. Unless he stands up. Or drops off in coverage. Or lines up as a 4-i or 3-tech. But mostly Edge. Except when he's not.
• Alim McNeil - you still hear casuals in the media call him the NT. Cut 13% of his body fat while maintaining weight this off-season, has gone from above average to Elite 3-tech.
• John Cominsky is a multiple - 3-tech, 5-tech, underrated rotational pass rusher.
• Benito Jones and Isaiah Buggs don't grade out well at PFF but they're the dirty work guys who clog the middle.
• Okwara brothers - Romeo was the starting Edge opposite Hutch, usually on the right side. His brother plays Sam but mostly rushese the passer.
• Paschal is another multiple if he's active today; usually inside as 4-i, they wanted him to be another Brockers, can't stay healthy. Usually lines up with Hutch.

Lions don't blitz or run stunts. Typically rush 4 and win your battle. They get pressure but seldom get home. Versus the overwhelmed Raiders line they both blitzed and ran twists; 6 sacks, whaddayaknow. Chargers have a mid OL without C Corey Linsley (IR heart condition) - heard he's functioning as another assistant these days - so it will be interesting to see what AG dials up. If you have success early you'll probably move it all day, we seldom make adjustments on defense.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I have a hard time seeing the Lions win today. I think Detroit has the talent to match the Chargers but just the road trip to Cali, the ebb and flow of the NFL season,etc. makes me think this is a loss. I will be happy to be proven wrong though.

and the obligatory reverse jinx has arrived

 

[Tau837]

As an NC State alum, I love McNeil. Really enjoyed watching him play for the Wolfpack.

I watched Hard Knocks last year, and really came away very impressed with Campbell. He was hired in the same offseason as Chargers HC Staley, and I would definitely rather have Campbell. Other than in this game, I am rooting for the Lions this season. Great story.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Will be very nice to enjoy this after the SF Jags early game. Good test for both of these teams as we don’t exactly know how good each is. I’ll take Lions 24-23 as LAC make a mistake at the wrong time.

 

[BobbyLayne]

As an NC State alum, I love McNeil. Really enjoyed watching him play for the Wolfpack.

I watched Hard Knocks last year, and really came away very impressed with Campbell. He was hired in the same offseason as Chargers HC Staley, and I would definitely rather have Campbell. Other than in this game, I am rooting for the Lions this season. Great story.

Boy on paper it looked like the Chargers crushed it and once again the Lions whiffed. I still think he's a brilliant DC but those coordinators don't always have the right stuff.

Campbell is a pretty bright guy but not really an Xs and Os guy. But man does he know what it takes to succeed in this league. If this were a personna (looking at you Rex Ryan) it would not work. He's authentic, and the players would run through a proverbial brick wall for him. Well, heck, so would most of our fans. He is a podium entertainer but when he's not yucking it up he spends a lot of time teaching. Working with LaPorta, or making it clear how he wants his positional guys to coach up their guys. Detroit has a very young team and a staff full of ex-NFL players is the perfect fit.

His in game is one of his weaker aspects but he's grown and gotten better each year. Heck, each month sometimes. He has learned to dial back the aggression so he doesn't jurt the team by being reckless. He'll still run a ton of 4th downs and they're 7 out of 8 on fake punts (the lone failure was a perfect pass but the dude dropped it.) Love him. Best coach of my lifetime. Brad Holmes is the best GM the Lions have ever had.

I have literally waited my entire life for a season like this.

 

[Tau837]

Boy on paper it looked like the Chargers crushed it and once again the Lions whiffed. I still think he's a brilliant DC but those coordinators don't always have the right stuff.

He has the reputation of being a brilliant DC, but it hasn't shown up for the Chargers. Rankings in yards allowed in his 2+ seasons to date: 23, 20, 30. Ranking in points allowed in his 2+ seasons to date: 29, 21, 21. If they don't turn around this season's performance, the Chargers haven't had a 3 year run of defense this bad since the mid-1980s.

I have literally waited my entire life for a season like this.

Very happy for you GB. And all long suffering Lions fans.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Boy on paper it looked like the Chargers crushed it and once again the Lions whiffed. I still think he's a brilliant DC but those coordinators don't always have the right stuff.

He has the reputation of being a brilliant DC, but it hasn't shown up for the Chargers. Rankings in yards allowed in his 2+ seasons to date: 23, 20, 30. Ranking in points allowed in his 2+ seasons to date: 29, 21, 21. If they don't turn around this season's performance, the Chargers haven't had a 3 year run of defense this bad since the mid-1980s.

I have literally waited my entire life for a season like this.

Very happy for you GB. And all long suffering Lions fans.

Interesting to hear your perspective. It's just parroting narrative street but I think most think Staley is a bonehead analytics HC but will revert back to being an elite DC once he inevitably gets fired.

I appreciate all your posts here in the lead up, has helped my understanding of where the Chargers are at this week a lot.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Had hoped to post the Chargers offense and Lions defense but probably won't get to it.

It's pretty simple though, right? The Chargers have three offensive stars and Detroit has Hutchinson. Giddy up, LFG. /s Personally I don't think either of these defenses can stop the offenses.

Dealing with some family stuff. While I was killing time in the hospital today I wrote out some random notes.

---

NFL Pressure Leaders:

1. Maxx 53
2. Micah 49
3. Hutch 46

Lions PR loves trotting this one out bc then they can gloss over the fact he has 4.5 sacks with basically the second most true pass set opportunities.

The Lions have the fourth-slowest average time to pressure at 2.65 seconds. Quarterbacks’ average time to throw, the Lions have allowed the second longest time to throw at 2.99 seconds. And then average time to sack, the Lions have the slowest average time to sack in the NFL at 4.17 seconds.

Detroit ranks 25th in pass rush win rate, 30th in run stop win rate on defense and 15th in pass block win rate on offense and 23rd in run block win rate. Those of us who have closely observed Aaron Glenn have noted he is not a DC known to make adjustments. Their basic philosophy is "Here is what we do. We think our dudes can beat your dudes." When things go south, we hear the same thing over and over: "Guys have to trust the man beside them. Do your job and trust your teammate will do his job. The scheme is fine, we just have to win our individual battles."

Man do I sincerely hope that guy gets a HC gig in the offseason. Would be nice to upgrade and land two 3rd round picks for doing so.

---

Whenever there is a close spread, we often revert to cliches like “well this will come down to the turnover battle.” Since most close games do follow that narrative, usually it’s a pretty safe branch to step out on.

Consider this:

• 2023 Detroit Lions are even steven on that front, with the 5th fewest 10 turnovers (5 INT, 5 FL) AND 6th fewest 10 takeaways (7 INT 3 FR.) Record: 6-2-0
• 2023 LA Chargers have never lost the turnover battle this season; it’s been 11 games since they lost it in a game. This year they’re 4-1 when they win it, and 0-3 when the turnovers are even. They are second with only 6 turnovers (4 INT, league-low 2 FL) AND 15 takeaways (6 INT, league-best 9 FR.) Record: 4-4-0

Well this week I’m going with another cliche: this game will be won in the trenches. The Chargers have 3 awesome Edge rushers and Detroit has two elite Offensive Tackles. Something’s gotta give.

---

Sunday marks six weeks since Justin Herbert’s bone punctured the skin of his left middle finger, completing the timeline originally given for him to heal from the injury. Whether Herbert plays without the splint he’s had on since breaking the finger is yet to be determined.

---

Power rankings are a tedious exercise with little value, but play along with me for a minute.

Chargers Wins:

• On the road #12 Vikings (really? OK I grabbed CBS PR, they moved them up 11 spots lol)
• #23 Raiders
• #29 Bears
• #20 Jets

Chargers Losses:

• #8 Dolphins
• #21 Titans
• #7 Cowboys
• #4 Chiefs

Lions Wins:

• On the road #4 Chiefs
• #22 Falcons
• On the road #28 Packers
• #32 Panthers
• On the road #25 Buccaneers
• #23 Raiders

Lions Losses:

• #11 Seahawks
• On the road #2 Ravens

Confession: I started this blurb with the thought “OK let me demonstrate how weak those Bolts are by showing they only beat bad teams and lose to good teams.” Typing out the Lions wins was pretty humbling TBH. What the heck have we accomplished?

First NFC team to ever beat Mahomes in Kansas City. OK, can't take that away. Do you get a banner for that?

---

Have to keep winning. Chargers are hungry, this one is going to be a dogfight. Get out of here with a hard fought dub and this season might end up being something special.

Detroit 30 Villains 21

Hope things are ok on the personal side BL

 

[BobbyLayne]

Had hoped to post the Chargers offense and Lions defense but probably won't get to it.

It's pretty simple though, right? The Chargers have three offensive stars and Detroit has Hutchinson. Giddy up, LFG. /s Personally I don't think either of these defenses can stop the offenses.

Dealing with some family stuff. While I was killing time in the hospital today I wrote out some random notes.

---

NFL Pressure Leaders:

1. Maxx 53
2. Micah 49
3. Hutch 46

Lions PR loves trotting this one out bc then they can gloss over the fact he has 4.5 sacks with basically the second most true pass set opportunities.

The Lions have the fourth-slowest average time to pressure at 2.65 seconds. Quarterbacks’ average time to throw, the Lions have allowed the second longest time to throw at 2.99 seconds. And then average time to sack, the Lions have the slowest average time to sack in the NFL at 4.17 seconds.

Detroit ranks 25th in pass rush win rate, 30th in run stop win rate on defense and 15th in pass block win rate on offense and 23rd in run block win rate. Those of us who have closely observed Aaron Glenn have noted he is not a DC known to make adjustments. Their basic philosophy is "Here is what we do. We think our dudes can beat your dudes." When things go south, we hear the same thing over and over: "Guys have to trust the man beside them. Do your job and trust your teammate will do his job. The scheme is fine, we just have to win our individual battles."

Man do I sincerely hope that guy gets a HC gig in the offseason. Would be nice to upgrade and land two 3rd round picks for doing so.

---

Whenever there is a close spread, we often revert to cliches like “well this will come down to the turnover battle.” Since most close games do follow that narrative, usually it’s a pretty safe branch to step out on.

Consider this:

• 2023 Detroit Lions are even steven on that front, with the 5th fewest 10 turnovers (5 INT, 5 FL) AND 6th fewest 10 takeaways (7 INT 3 FR.) Record: 6-2-0
• 2023 LA Chargers have never lost the turnover battle this season; it’s been 11 games since they lost it in a game. This year they’re 4-1 when they win it, and 0-3 when the turnovers are even. They are second with only 6 turnovers (4 INT, league-low 2 FL) AND 15 takeaways (6 INT, league-best 9 FR.) Record: 4-4-0

Well this week I’m going with another cliche: this game will be won in the trenches. The Chargers have 3 awesome Edge rushers and Detroit has two elite Offensive Tackles. Something’s gotta give.

---

Sunday marks six weeks since Justin Herbert’s bone punctured the skin of his left middle finger, completing the timeline originally given for him to heal from the injury. Whether Herbert plays without the splint he’s had on since breaking the finger is yet to be determined.

---

Power rankings are a tedious exercise with little value, but play along with me for a minute.

Chargers Wins:

• On the road #12 Vikings (really? OK I grabbed CBS PR, they moved them up 11 spots lol)
• #23 Raiders
• #29 Bears
• #20 Jets

Chargers Losses:

• #8 Dolphins
• #21 Titans
• #7 Cowboys
• #4 Chiefs

Lions Wins:

• On the road #4 Chiefs
• #22 Falcons
• On the road #28 Packers
• #32 Panthers
• On the road #25 Buccaneers
• #23 Raiders

Lions Losses:

• #11 Seahawks
• On the road #2 Ravens

Confession: I started this blurb with the thought “OK let me demonstrate how weak those Bolts are by showing they only beat bad teams and lose to good teams.” Typing out the Lions wins was pretty humbling TBH. What the heck have we accomplished?

First NFC team to ever beat Mahomes in Kansas City. OK, can't take that away. Do you get a banner for that?

---

Have to keep winning. Chargers are hungry, this one is going to be a dogfight. Get out of here with a hard fought dub and this season might end up being something special.

Detroit 30 Villains 21

Hope things are ok on the personal side BL

Thanks, friend, I'm good - MIL is having a health crisis. Support and peacemaker roles come easy for me. It is stressful, though.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Lions are going with the icy Whites today

Last 4 times they have worn white on white were all road wins in big games:

• 2022 at NYG (who were 7-2 at the time)
• 2022 at GB season finale
• 2023 at KC banner night, opening game of NFL season
• 2023 at GB not the same Pack we're used to but Lambeau is always a big deal for us

Dan Campbell makes these decisions. The players are aware the icy Whites are always for a tough road game.