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QB Lamar Jackson, BAL


massraider

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1 hour ago, fightingillini said:

If you have the #1, it's either Lamar or CMC in a superflex.

Mahomes is still in the conversation for 1.01.

My board currently goes. 

Mahomes

Jackson

Watson

Barkley

CMC

I think you an make a great argument for Watson over him too. Watson is more proven... and when Lamar gets hurt taking stupid, unnecessary hits we are all going to say "we saw that coming." 

Our collective recency bias blinds us to that last sentence though. 

I predict what happens next is:  to counter Jackson, NFL defensive coordinators try to adapt the strategy that used to be great at discouraging the old school triple option at the NFL level.  That strategy was "we're going to force the pitch, and by the way we will legally and absolutely destroy your QB every time we can.  We'll bet we are willing to sacrifice the big run more times than you will allow your QB to get decleated."

Edited by kittenmittens
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5 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Mahomes is still in the conversation for 1.01.

My board currently goes. 

Mahomes

Jackson

Watson

Barkley

CMC

I think you an make a great argument for Watson over him too. Watson is more proven... and when Lamar gets hurt taking stupid, unnecessary hits we are all going to say "we saw that coming." 

Our collective recency bias blinds us to that last sentence though. 

I predict what happens next is:  to counter Jackson, NFL defensive coordinators try to adapt the strategy that used to be great at discouraging the old school triple option at the NFL level.  That strategy was "we're going to force the pitch, and by the way we will legally and absolutely destroy your QB every time we can.  We'll bet we are willing to sacrifice the big run more times than you will allow your QB to get decleated."

How are they going to do that? They don’t run the option with Lamar out on the wing defenseless very often.

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42 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

How are they going to do that? They don’t run the option with Lamar out on the wing defenseless very often.

Excellent question, haha. I meant they have to find a new way to implement that old concept of punishing the QB for running in traffic too much. 

Even if they find a way though, the Ravens have the counter of just playing it a bit safer with Lamar.  He can slide and gain a few less yards instead of getting tackled. I think gaining 7 yards per play instead of 9 will continue to move the chains just fine. 

They really need to be proactive about it.  He got hit pretty hard at the beginning of that Jets game and those are not the kind of hits you want the MVP taking.  Don't be letting your QB get blasted by a linebacker while breaking tackles against a completely inferior opponent. 

I totally respect his toughness and ability to not take hard hits, but the toughness applies more to "hurt" than it does to "injured," and it only takes one weird pile up or tackle. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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I get why many will see Jackson as a 1st round pick next year in fantasy, but how many times have we seen this before?  A QB has a monster year and is taken very early in drafts the following season...and doesn't live up to that draft spot.  It happens every time.  It happened with Cam Newton.  It happened this year with Patrick Mahomes.  And it will likely happen next year with Lamar Jackson.  

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7 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Mahomes is still in the conversation for 1.01.

My board currently goes. 

Mahomes

Jackson

Watson

Barkley

CMC

I think you an make a great argument for Watson over him too. Watson is more proven... and when Lamar gets hurt taking stupid, unnecessary hits we are all going to say "we saw that coming." 

Our collective recency bias blinds us to that last sentence though. 

I predict what happens next is:  to counter Jackson, NFL defensive coordinators try to adapt the strategy that used to be great at discouraging the old school triple option at the NFL level.  That strategy was "we're going to force the pitch, and by the way we will legally and absolutely destroy your QB every time we can.  We'll bet we are willing to sacrifice the big run more times than you will allow your QB to get decleated."

Then he will destroy that defense with his arm

Edited by need2know
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1 hour ago, need2know said:

Then he will destroy that defense with his arm

Indeed.  Running QBs who are smart and can pass like Lamar are a precious treasure.

He's so good he doesn't need to risk his body to dominate the league.  The are a precious, but fragile treasure... 

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3 hours ago, Ghost Rider said:

I get why many will see Jackson as a 1st round pick next year in fantasy, but how many times have we seen this before?  A QB has a monster year and is taken very early in drafts the following season...and doesn't live up to that draft spot.  It happens every time.  It happened with Cam Newton.  It happened this year with Patrick Mahomes.  And it will likely happen next year with Lamar Jackson.  

Yeah, you should have taken Saquon Barkley instead! Yeah! Or, uh, Todd Gurley! Alvin Kamara! Tyreek Hill!

Jackson right now is very clearly a top-5 fantasy player. In 2019 he's #1 or #2.

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1 hour ago, Uruk-Hai said:

So,  assuming the season stopped right now and we were transported to the 2020 season - 12 team superflex redraft..........how many picks before you'd take Jackson? And who would those picks be?

 

Really tough question with several dimensions.

Working against Lamar:

  1. Regression: What Lamar is doing is historic and while all signs point to him being a historically great player, even the most elite players have ebbs and flows in their seasons: injuries (to themselves or their supporting cast) slow them down, teams opponents develop new, successful schemes, bad luck (drops, fumbles, tipped passes, tackled at the 1, etc).  Lamar's rushing and TD% are like nothing we have ever seen and it's just hard to imagine that he is able to do this consistently. However, the same can be said for CMc and Michael Thomas. This is where the big difference is...
  2. Supply and Demand. The QB spot is just so much easier to replace than the RB or WR spot. I am feeling it right now. Lamar is my QB and that might be enough to win me my league but I lost Evans and Chark the week before. Now my WR group is really screwed. I am looking at starting 2 guys like Allen Hurns, James Washington and Marcus Johnson. They could give me 0 this week. If things were reversed and I lost Lamar instead of Evans/Chark, I could play Rivers, Trubisky, Eli vs Miami, Minshew vs Oak. Their floors and ceilings are so much better than the WW WRs I am forced into playing.

Working in Lamar's favor:

  1. The best floor and ceiling of any player in fantasy football
  2. Worth the risk: if you are going to spend your most valuable pick, why not bet it on the guy averaging 30+ points a game? 
  3. He is really fun to watch and isn't part of this to have fun?
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1 hour ago, Uruk-Hai said:

So,  assuming the season stopped right now and we were transported to the 2020 season - 12 team superflex redraft..........how many picks before you'd take Jackson? And who would those picks be?

 

Superflex? No one.

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Fun little breakdown, if you split Lamar Jackson into 2 players: Lamar the runner and Lamar the thrower

Lamar the runner would be around RB 13-15 in standard near Mixon, Lindsay and Bell. 

Lamar the thrower would be around QB 9-11 near Rodgers, Wentz and Jimmy G. 

So Lamar is truly like getting to start an extra player. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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5 hours ago, CalBear said:

Yeah, you should have taken Saquon Barkley instead! Yeah! Or, uh, Todd Gurley! Alvin Kamara! Tyreek Hill!

Jackson right now is very clearly a top-5 fantasy player. In 2019 he's #1 or #2.

I understand that he is the number 1 or 2 player in 2019.  That doesn't mean that he will be the number 1 or 2 player in 2020.  As I stated before, NFL history is loaded with quarterbacks who had monster, historically great seasons, and then came back to earth the following season.  Now, with Jackson's skill set, he could certainly be the outlier and it wouldn't surprise me at all, and with his ceiling I get why many will view him as one of the first picks in next year's draft.  I am just throwing out a little caution and a reminder that history is not on his side.  Did you see that hit he took on the run the other night when he broke Vick's record?  More hits like that are likely and it is much tougher for a QB who runs a lot to stay healthy than a pure pocket passer, as the running lends itself to getting hit.  Many thought Mahomes was going to duplicate this year what he did last year and he has not come close. 

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18 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Really tough question with several dimensions.

Working against Lamar:

  1. Supply and Demand. The QB spot is just so much easier to replace than the RB or WR spot.

I totally disagree with this in a 12 team SUPERFLEX league.  Jackson is so much more valuable in a superflex.  In a superflex league, you need 3 solid QBs, and only half the league will possess that.  QBs will fly off the board in a way similar to RBs in a typical start 1QB league.   

Say you have the 1.1 in a superflex and passed on Jackson and take CMC.  Nothing wrong with that.  But your next two picks at 24-25 almost HAVE to be QBs, since by pick 48, probably most (if not all) of the decent starting QBs will be off the board.  With the 1.1, I would definitely consider taking Jackson 1.1 and taking the two best players available at 24-25.  Gives me more flexibility.

To answer the question Uruk-Hai asked......I would never let Jackson slide past 1.02 in a superflex league.  And the only player that I MAY take before Jackson is CMC (if the league is a PPR league).  You could make an argument for Mahomes over Jackson, but I like Jackson's upside more.

In start 1 QB leagues, it's much more of a fascinating question.  Jackson will go in the late 1st round in many leagues.  Personally, I wouldn't take Jackson until the early-mid 2nd round (if I even do that).

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25 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

I totally disagree with this in a 12 team SUPERFLEX league.  Jackson is so much more valuable in a superflex.  In a superflex league, you need 3 solid QBs, and only half the league will possess that.  QBs will fly off the board in a way similar to RBs in a typical start 1QB league.   

Say you have the 1.1 in a superflex and passed on Jackson and take CMC.  Nothing wrong with that.  But your next two picks at 24-25 almost HAVE to be QBs, since by pick 48, probably most (if not all) of the decent starting QBs will be off the board.  With the 1.1, I would definitely consider taking Jackson 1.1 and taking the two best players available at 24-25.  Gives me more flexibility.

To answer the question Uruk-Hai asked......I would never let Jackson slide past 1.02 in a superflex league.  And the only player that I MAY take before Jackson is CMC (if the league is a PPR league).  You could make an argument for Mahomes over Jackson, but I like Jackson's upside more.

In start 1 QB leagues, it's much more of a fascinating question.  Jackson will go in the late 1st round in many leagues.  Personally, I wouldn't take Jackson until the early-mid 2nd round (if I even do that).

Well yeah in superflex, he’s a top 2 lock.

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4 hours ago, Ghost Rider said:

I understand that he is the number 1 or 2 player in 2019.  That doesn't mean that he will be the number 1 or 2 player in 2020.  As I stated before, NFL history is loaded with quarterbacks who had monster, historically great seasons, and then came back to earth the following season.  Now, with Jackson's skill set, he could certainly be the outlier and it wouldn't surprise me at all, and with his ceiling I get why many will view him as one of the first picks in next year's draft.  I am just throwing out a little caution and a reminder that history is not on his side.  Did you see that hit he took on the run the other night when he broke Vick's record?  More hits like that are likely and it is much tougher for a QB who runs a lot to stay healthy than a pure pocket passer, as the running lends itself to getting hit.  Many thought Mahomes was going to duplicate this year what he did last year and he has not come close. 

Mahomes was more worthy of his draft spot than any of the other players I listed. He's still top-5 on a PPG basis unlike the other players taken near the top of the draft. According to MFL Mahomes ADP was #16. (#16!) At least half the people ahead of him were worse picks than he was. 

Top QBs are actually more reliable than top RBs or WRs, with very few exceptions.

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34 minutes ago, CalBear said:

Mahomes was more worthy of his draft spot than any of the other players I listed. He's still top-5 on a PPG basis unlike the other players taken near the top of the draft. According to MFL Mahomes ADP was #16. (#16!) At least half the people ahead of him were worse picks than he was. 

Top QBs are actually more reliable than top RBs or WRs, with very few exceptions.

True but middle QB1 isn’t nearly as valuable as a low end RB1. Mahomes VBD this year wont end up that impressive. 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

True but middle QB1 isn’t nearly as valuable as a low end RB1. Mahomes VBD this year wont end up that impressive. 

Mahomes missed a game and most of another. On a per-game basis his VBD will be top-20. 

But the point is, lots of sure-fire RBs and WRs that are taken high in the draft don't wind up performing as expected. But top QBs can pretty much be expected to perform like top QBs. Yes, QB6 is not as valuable as RB12, but the RB you take with pick 1.04 is way more likely to end up as RB24 than Mahomes/Jackson is to wind up as QB12.

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22 hours ago, Ghost Rider said:

I get why many will see Jackson as a 1st round pick next year in fantasy, but how many times have we seen this before?  A QB has a monster year and is taken very early in drafts the following season...and doesn't live up to that draft spot.  It happens every time.  It happened with Cam Newton.  It happened this year with Patrick Mahomes.  And it will likely happen next year with Lamar Jackson.  

2007 Manning ADP 1.10. Finished as QB3.

2009 Brees ADP 1.11.  Finished as QB2.

2010 Rodgers ADP 1.07.  Finished as QB1.

2011 Rodgers ADP 1.09.  Finished as QB2.

2012 Rodgers ADP 1.02.  Finished as QB2.

2012 Brady ADP 1.05.  Finished as QB3.

2012 Brees ADP 1.07.  Finished as QB1.


There have been very few QBs with ADP in the first round since then.  Even after Newton's huge year, his ADP was in the 3rd round.  Someone else mentioned RG3 but after his big year, his ADP was in the 7th round.

 

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13 hours ago, turkishkamel said:

I had Lamar and still lost. That's not easy to do. 

I had Lamar, went 6-7, snuck into the playoffs and now I'm onto the Championship. I felt dumb almost not making the playoffs because one Podcast I listen to was laughing about how they couldn't imagine a team with Lamar missing the playoffs.

Edited by Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
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Regarding the Superflex question. The points to the contrary notwithstanding about his running style leaving him available to be injured (that hit against the Jets was a lot bigger and harder than people made it out to be during he telecast -- he might have been leveled and the mic pop it generated certainly reverberated) I can't imagine my own personal self running up to the podium with 1.1 and having anybody's name other than Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes on it. And then I'm grabbing Winston on the turn and everybody's head can go explode (not so much with Jameis after this year, but you all get what I'm saying).  

I think I learned firsthand this year how swimming upstream you are with poor quarterbacking in a Superflex, and how you must have three, however friendly the league is. It can't really be stressed enough. It's like pounding RB-RB into the first two rounds of standard a while back. There'd better be a really darn good reason to jump over a good QB. To wit: Jameis and Brees just teamed up to beat M. Thomas and McCaffrey in one of note to me personally. 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

I think I learned firsthand this year how swimming upstream you are with poor quarterbacking in a Superflex, and how you must have three, however friendly the league is. It can't really be stressed enough. It's like pounding RB-RB into the first two rounds of standard a while back. There'd better be a really darn good reason to jump over a good QB. To wit: Jameis and Brees just teamed up to beat M. Thomas and McCaffrey in one of note to me personally. 

As with everything, your mileage may vary.  It really depends on the number of starters your league has, how many teams, and what the scoring rules are.  But that applies to just about every roster design situation.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

As with everything, your mileage may vary.  It really depends on the number of starters your league has, how many teams, and what the scoring rules are.  But that applies to just about every roster design situation.

Very true, and I should have caveated. 

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Buddy of mine is Pats fan, during the 2018 draft I was terrified the Pats were gonna draft Lamar. Buddy we making the "better athlete than QB" statements that seem laughable now. 

On the same day that Lamar sets Ravens TD pass record, and also sets record for most TD passes in season by ANY Heisman winner ever, with one game left, I am currently smoking Pats friend in finals, who a few weeks ago was still making the dumb "if he develops as a passer, he'll be scary, derp derp derp" comments we still read here. 

Sweet sweet Christmas week. 

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Quote

Lamar Jackson completed 20-of-31 passes for 238 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Ravens' 31-15, Week 16 win over the Browns.

Jackson added 103 scoreless yards on the ground. He put together another largely brilliant performance, demonstrating his usual electric rushing ability along with underrated skills to dice up defenses from the pocket. Both of his touchdown passes to Mark Andrews were well placed dimes, while the score to Mark Ingram was more of a coverage bust. It’s tough to imagine a scenario where Jackson won’t be named the 2019 NFL MVP. Putting average draft position into consideration, Jackson is easily fantasy football’s MVP.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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On 12/17/2019 at 1:18 PM, rockaction said:

Regarding the Superflex question. The points to the contrary notwithstanding about his running style leaving him available to be injured (that hit against the Jets was a lot bigger and harder than people made it out to be during he telecast -- he might have been leveled and the mic pop it generated certainly reverberated) I can't imagine my own personal self running up to the podium with 1.1 and having anybody's name other than Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes on it. And then I'm grabbing Winston on the turn and everybody's head can go explode (not so much with Jameis after this year, but you all get what I'm saying).  

I think I learned firsthand this year how swimming upstream you are with poor quarterbacking in a Superflex, and how you must have three, however friendly the league is. It can't really be stressed enough. It's like pounding RB-RB into the first two rounds of standard a while back. There'd better be a really darn good reason to jump over a good QB. To wit: Jameis and Brees just teamed up to beat M. Thomas and McCaffrey in one of note to me personally. 

My only rebuttal to this is that good QBs are available later. For example in our FBG league, I didn’t touch QB until round 5 and ended up with Stafford, Dak and Jimmy G. I was great at QB. My issue was the 2 of the WRs I loaded up on early were hurt most of the year (Thielen and Adams) and my RB shots of Sony and Montgomery were total whiffs. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

My only rebuttal to this is that good QBs are available later. For example in our FBG league, I didn’t touch QB until round 5 and ended up with Stafford, Dak and Jimmy G. I was great at QB. My issue was the 2 of the WRs I loaded up on early were hurt most of the year (Thielen and Adams) and my RB shots of Sony and Montgomery were total whiffs. 

I hear what you're saying and think of your draft as contra to prevailing wisdom. I think that was a specific league with specific draft tendencies and you likely weren't getting Jimmy, Dak, and Stafford that late in many other drafts according to those league specifications. So it's really a situation where you, in that instance, read the draft exceptionally well and were able to pull those QBs late. I don't think that would happen again if we did it again. I think your point/joke last week or so about the scrap heap of QBs so eagerly awaited with open arms in a Superflex is a good one that speaks to the level of the league's specs when paralleled with real football. IOW, how close are the important positions, and how are they reflected in scoring in FF? 

But I take your point. And there's always this notion in that a Superflex league, one has to start a quarterback. But certain circumstances, players, and web sites can remind one that one has the option to do just that: Superflex. Really, if you have no better options for a week at QB, you've got the option to pull any old matchup body into the fold and go from there. 

I guess I would argue that QBs would go much quicker in other drafts than ours, so waiting isn't always as much an option as in 1QB redraft or something like it. As for ours anecdotally, I whiffed on QBs this year; that was my issue. I pulled some utterly rancid scores from starters from 6 to -2.7 or so, with a four and a doughnut thrown in there for good measure. Just cringeworthy. And I had to take players later that you really had to hope panned out, which they largely did. 

But that's about all I got.

Lamar is awesome. Deion gives the edge to Mahomes over the next five years. Whatever it brings, I hope it brings continued health for both of them. They're stunning to watch at their age.

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I have got to thank LJ for the #1 seed and one of the best seasons ever in my dyno. 

Unfortunately, with Cook, Henry, Fournette & Conner as my top 4 RB's, I lost in the semi-final and will likely lose the consolation game also - unless Adams goes for 170 and 2 tds. 

Oh well, it was a run. Even with the early exit, this is tied for my favorite season ever. 

Now, I will be rooting for Reality Football. 

Go LJ, keep being great. And, thnx for the joy. 

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‪Lamar has now played 8 games after the season changing game at Seattle, which makes it easy to extrapolate his stats since then for a full 16-game season

Only 2950 yards passing. But 50 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 130 passer rating which would be the highest ever. Plus 1260 yards rushing and 8 more TDs. ‬

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On 12/23/2019 at 11:14 AM, The_Man said:

‪Lamar has now played 8 games after the season changing game at Seattle, which makes it easy to extrapolate his stats since then for a full 16-game season

Only 2950 yards passing. But 50 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 130 passer rating which would be the highest ever. Plus 1260 yards rushing and 8 more TDs. ‬

Did a little more research on this - Lamar's passer rating over the last 8 games is 130.9. I've found only 3 other QBs who ever put up a QB rating of more than 130 during any 8-game stretch.

Brady, 2007 - in Games 1-8 and 3-10
Manning, 2004 - Games 6-13
Montana, 1989 - Games 3-10, 5-12, and 6-13

Those are all regarded among the greatest QB seasons of all time. If you expand the QB rating to 125 over an 8-game stretch, you get a lot more

Rodgers in 2011, Games 1-8
Brees last year from Games 3-10 and also Wilson last year, Games 5-12
Steve Young in 94 and Brady in 2010
and then two big surprises to me: Kirk Cousins the last 8 games of 2015 and Nick Foles the last 8 games of 2013

Remember last year when the big storyline was that defenses had a big advantage the second time they faced Lamar?

This year's first games vs Cincy and Cleveland combined: 90.6 passer rating, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 sacks
This year's second games vs Cincy and Cleveland combined: 142.4 passer rating, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 sacks

 

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20 minutes ago, The_Man said:

Remember last year when the big storyline was that defenses had a big advantage the second time they faced Lamar?

I don't think this was ever a "big storyline," it was just pointed out that the Chargers were the only team to face him twice last year, and they played him much better the second time.

Among all of his impressive accomplishments, I don't think dominating Cincy and Cleveland rank terribly high on the list...

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to QB Lamar Jackson, BAL

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