bostonfred said:
I don't really agree with this.
The team had cut hunt, had ware on his final year and williams.
Williams was at the end of a 1 year 1.8m deal and the team signed him to an incentive laden contract extension that could be worth over 4 million a year for the next two years.
From his perspective, coming off a 1 year deal for under 2 million this represented a big raise based off a couple good games and the opportunity to set himself up for life. Lots of good rbs didn't get a call this off season.
From the team's perspective, why lock him up, even for back up money, before the season ended? They already had him for the rest of the year, and if he gets hurt they cost themselves money. It's because they intended to use him and they knew his price could go up. That's literally the only reason to sign him to an extension when they did.
You say they signed him to backup money and backup money usually means a backup role. I agree when the player is signed in the off season. These kinds of in season extensions for players who go from third string to starting the afc championship game are rare. The last comparable deal i can think of was dion, like you mentioned.
What i see is a relatively young player with low wear and tear averaging over 100 yards and 1.4 touchdowns the last 5 weeks, who can play all 3 downs and can run and catch and score touchdowns in one of the top offenses in the NFL.
Is it possible he gets usurped? Of course. Is it likely? Maybe, but I'd say much less likely after what he did to the colts, but it could certainly happen.
I absolutely would not prefer an early second in a relatively weak rb draft class to a guy with the potential to put up Kareem hunt numbers. Even if the chiefs draft or sign someone - and williams loses the job in training camp - he's still a highly valuable backup. Good backup rbs can be league winners.
Why lock him up for backup money? Why not? That's just good business. Like has been mentioned, Ware is a FA and they have no other depth. They are going to need bodies in the RB room next year. Might as well sign him now. The deal is structured to be a win-win (sort of). If they use him as a backup, they pay him as a backup. If he hits all his incentives, he gets $4M/year which is almost low-end starter money. So not a great win-win for the player, but like you said, that's enough money to be set for life (if you're smart about it).
But I think you are overstating things:
(1) The "over $4 million" is actually $4.05
if he hits
every single incentive over two years. Also, by signing him this year they were able to put his signing bonus on this current season, so next year he only accounts for $1.2M and $2.3M the following year. So that's another possible answer to "why lock him up this year?" There's only a $533k cap hit if they cut him after 2019. If they had given him a $1.6M signing bonus after this year, that is only split over 2 years instead of 3.
(2) As for being "relatively young" he will be 27 next season in a league where, this season, a 27 year old CJA had a hard time finding a job, 29 year old Doug Martin was considered washed up, and 30 year old Demarco Murray is retired. I'm not saying he's old, but relatively young he is not.
It sounds like you are hoping for a running back savior. Why else does it matter that this is a weak RB draft class when talking about an early 2nd round pick? The important thing about that early 2nd is that it grows in value during the draft. You can usually fetch far more than you should for that pick if you trade it while on the clock. And I mentioned it to Dr.O, but this RB class (from what I've read) is not strong at the top, but is strong at the middle. So if you were to go RB hunting in the draft, an early 2nd would not be a bad pick for this class. The articles and opinions I've read could be wrong, but supposedly this draft is loaded with RBBC/contributor level talent at RB.
All I'm saying is I'd pump the brakes on this "the window has closed for an early 2nd" talk. That's still a hell of a deal for the seller if the seller is the type of player who plays the odds.
Dr. Octopus said:
This is a good point that gets overlooked, since he was a league winner down the stretch this season in that role we know it can be possible again.
That describes basically half the handcuffs in the league. Jerome Harrison once put up 3 amazing games in a row at the end of the season... never to be heard from again. If I hadn't blocked an opponent from picking up CJA, he'd have been a league winner, too. Jamaal Williams was a league winner for some people. Latavius Murray had a nice stretch earlier this year. Derrick Henry averaged like 3 yards per carry for 12 games before exploding. Being a backup with league winning capabilities is not rarefied air. I hope nobody was trading early 2nds for Mewelde Moore back in the day.
