There was a recent trade in the offseason thread of Arob for Fournette, so I'm wondering how people are valuing Allen Robinson. Fournette seems easy enough to rank but Robinson is a different story. How high of a value do people put on him?
I would easily trade a late 1st for him. I'd need to see how the combine/draft shake out before giving a more precise value, but right now I'm guessing I'd put his value around 1.09.
2015 is starting to look like an outlier season for Robinson - and those numbers seem to be a bit conflated by the garbage time stats Bortles put up.
I liked him as a prospect and think he has some talent but at some point production is production.
He would be a guy I'd be reluctant to trade for - as I'm just not sure the potential reward is worth the risk of a late pick breaking out.
Let me preface this by saying that I've got zero AR shares and if I ever had any, they were only in redraft. Last offseason I was looking into the impact of garbage time as a whole (I think it started with a discussion about Hopkins and his garbage time) and while garbage time did impact AR positively in 2015 (as it does most players), his stats while the game was not out of hand were actually exceptional already. It's difficult to pull the numbers out accurately because trailing by 2-3 scores will typically lead to more targets, but I want to say if you gave him the same number of targets, but at his non-garbage time rate, he still would have put up ~80/1250/12 that season.
I did the little study using points per target to discern whether garbage time targets were worth more than regular targets (they were). I also figured what % of their stats came from garbage time. IIRC, AR was around 35% which was higher than average but not out of line with some other players like Hopkins who didn't get a bad wrap for garbage time stats. Speaking of Hopkins, they both had equally terrible 2016s (both were at 1.31 points per target in 1ppr).
Just wanted to share that data, but interpretation is up to each individual. Personally I took it as a positive for him... last season he was on my radar. I was ready to snag him in my redraft auctions if the price was right, but I never got him. I also lightly tried to trade for him in dynasty with no success. I think I'm going to give it a go again, as it seems his price is even lower this year. He's 25 and will turn 26 just before the season starts. His points per target last year were respectable (1.64 - 1ppr) although not awe inspiring. However, when taken into context that's not bad - he was dealing with nagging injuries (groin?) all year and the targets were coming from Trubisky who is at least a step down from QBs that most of the top performers were getting targets from.
He's obviously not without risk. Injuries limited him last season and he's only played 16 games in two of five seasons. Additionally, there are people out there who think Anthony Miller will overtake him to be the Bears' WR1. He's unlikely to see 150 targets like he did in JAX, as Chicago ranked 25th in pass attempts under Nagy last season. IMO, a realistic range of outcomes for a healthy AR would be 72/1000/5 to 80/1120/8. So I'd put him in line with players like Golladay, Landry, and Cooper.
