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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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58 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Singletary was definitely not a 1st round pick in rookie picks.  You’re betting on an extreme outlier if he does more.  These backup RBs have better ypc than the starters quite a bit because of small sample and breaking a big one.  Most of them don’t work out as bellcows.  Plus he’s a bad athlete that was in a poor conference in college.  All that leads to limited production in the NFL.  

Like I mentioned before, they have 0 talent in that RB room while Gore is almost dead.  No chance they don’t add more next year.  It’s a main “need” for the team, even if Singletary hits.  He’s due for a time share at best.  

Try going through the thread you created. "Post your rookie drafts - 2019..."

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/775182-post-your-rookie-drafts-2019/page/11/

He went in the first round in a few drafts posted there late in August.

Regardless of what you think of him;

-he was a third round NFL draft pick

-had camp hype

-had preseason hype

-the team cut Shady for a number of reasons, one being Devin Singletary

-has looked the part in Buffalo and was a spark plug for them when his number got called

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Singletary was definitely not a 1st round pick in rookie picks.  You’re betting on an extreme outlier if he does more.  These backup RBs have better ypc than the starters quite a bit because of small sample and breaking a big one.  Most of them don’t work out as bellcows.  Plus he’s a bad athlete that was in a poor conference in college.  All that leads to limited production in the NFL.  

Like I mentioned before, they have 0 talent in that RB room while Gore is almost dead.  No chance they don’t add more next year.  It’s a main “need” for the team, even if Singletary hits.  He’s due for a time share at best.  

He went in between picks 7-10 in all three of my leagues :shrug:.  No way you are getting singletary for a second round pick as of today, no one is thinking the way you just posted.  He was a third round pick and has looked good in limited time.

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35 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Biggest hold I've ever seen.  Give him 3 more games at least.  He's going to be a top back this year but nobody is going to pay for it yet.

I don't think anyone is going to pay a high price for a guy that turns 30 this year but if someone is "going for it" then a late first is what I'd expect if I'm selling.

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1 hour ago, ty247 said:

I don't think anyone is going to pay a high price for a guy that turns 30 this year but if someone is "going for it" then a late first is what I'd expect if I'm selling.

If he continues at this rate - getting 15-20 touches and goaline work as the lead back of the ravens - then he becomes the exact kind of one year rental a "going for it" team is looking for.  Considering they're going to be giving you a late first I think you can also get a younger player with upside in the deal.

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6 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

If he continues at this rate - getting 15-20 touches and goaline work as the lead back of the ravens - then he becomes the exact kind of one year rental a "going for it" team is looking for.  Considering they're going to be giving you a late first I think you can also get a younger player with upside in the deal.

I won't argue with that. Mutually agree. 

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Gordon by a mile for me, even though I've never been a huge Gordon fan.

The Gurley situation terrifies me. You can't trust him at all.

Maybe it's a short-term thing, but it goes back to last season, so I'm not so sure.

Just feels like he's never going to be "right" again.

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Singletary was definitely not a 1st round pick in rookie picks.  You’re betting on an extreme outlier if he does more.  These backup RBs have better ypc than the starters quite a bit because of small sample and breaking a big one.  Most of them don’t work out as bellcows.  Plus he’s a bad athlete that was in a poor conference in college.  All that leads to limited production in the NFL.  

Like I mentioned before, they have 0 talent in that RB room while Gore is almost dead.  No chance they don’t add more next year.  It’s a main “need” for the team, even if Singletary hits.  He’s due for a time share at best.  

I got him at 2.09, which seemed on the late side of average at the time. Everything since then has been nothing but positive, so no idea why I’d cash out for roughly the same pick unless I was absolutely smitten with some of the 3rd-tier guys in the 2020 draft and my goal in the first place was just to roll it forward. I’d have to consider a 1, but pretty sure I’d snap reject any 2.

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1 minute ago, EthnicFury said:

I got him at 2.09, which seemed on the late side of average at the time. Everything since then has been nothing but positive, so no idea why I’d cash out for roughly the same pick unless I was absolutely smitten with some of the 3rd-tier guys in the 2020 draft and my goal in the first place was just to roll it forward. I’d have to consider a 1, but pretty sure I’d snap reject any 2.

I'm sure he has his supporters.  I am not one of them.  I'd cash out now if I owned him anywhere.  And if I were to target him in trades, I wouldn't be paying any more than a mid-late 2nd.  Feel free to hold onto him and he might become something, I'm betting against that all day long though.  

If he does more this season, his value is mid 1st rounder, and I'd say cash out again.  His dynasty value, it's due for a plummet, but it might rise in the meantime.  

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2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I'm sure he has his supporters.  I am not one of them.  I'd cash out now if I owned him anywhere.  And if I were to target him in trades, I wouldn't be paying any more than a mid-late 2nd.  Feel free to hold onto him and he might become something, I'm betting against that all day long though.  

If he does more this season, his value is mid 1st rounder, and I'd say cash out again.  His dynasty value, it's due for a plummet, but it might rise in the meantime.  

Fair enough. And I get why some folks aren’t high on him, the measurables were straight-up bad.

But barring a situation where he fell crazy far or was traded as a throw-in, anyone holding him now paid as much or more as you’re recommending selling him for. If your point is “if you can get a 1st for him take it and run” I won’t argue with you (I think he plays way quicker than he tested, and has a chance to be the exception to the rule, but the statistics about which running backs tend to succeed say what they say and nobody ever went broke taking a profit).

I completely agree they will add a back in the off-season, but I think he has this season to overtake Gore and prove whoever they bring in next year should be a backup-level investment.

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Am I missing something...? I realize that no one is paying what Corey Davis is worth on any trade calculator/value chart, but i just had Davis for Chris Thompson declined, from a team who will not make the playoffs but isnt one of the top 3 worst teams (thanks to zeke). 

That's crazy to me... I would at least take a shot for a 28 year old oft-injured-soon-to-be-FA RB... :shrug:. Maybe I'm nuts idk. This league has 28 man rosters...

ETA: He also only has 1 draft pick (1st rd) but has major jeeds at every position. 

 

/rant

Edited by Johnny B. Goode
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9 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Biggest hold I've ever seen.  Give him 3 more games at least.  He's going to be a top back this year but nobody is going to pay for it yet.

The Ingram case is a weird one.

A year and a half ago Shady McCoy was older than Ingram is now and wasn't producing half as much, and people couldn't wait to brag that they got him for just a 1st as everyone patted them on the back for making such a great trade.

Yet here is Ingram.  Younger than Shady was, producing like a top 5 RB (as Shady wasn't), on a great offense (again, as Shady was not), with less wear and tear on his body and no signs of slowing down and you can't even get a 1st for him in most leagues.

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I’m well aware but Ingram, don’t care how productive, will never command a high price from me.  It was worth a chance to a team that shouldn’t be keeping him.  

The classic I want your guy but he sucks approach. These are the best!

Edit - And you shouldn't value him highly because your team sucks. He's worthless! The double zinger at work here. 

Edited by dipandglide
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39 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

The Ingram case is a weird one.

A year and a half ago Shady McCoy was older than Ingram is now and wasn't producing half as much, and people couldn't wait to brag that they got him for just a 1st as everyone patted them on the back for making such a great trade.

Yet here is Ingram.  Younger than Shady was, producing like a top 5 RB (as Shady wasn't), on a great offense (again, as Shady was not), with less wear and tear on his body and no signs of slowing down and you can't even get a 1st for him in most leagues.

He's got WAY less miles on his body too. He's a nice piece if you can snag him for a late 1st or worse. 

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5 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Am I missing something...? I realize that no one is paying what Corey Davis is worth on any trade calculator/value chart, but i just had Davis for Chris Thompson declined, from a team who will not make the playoffs but isnt one of the top 3 worst teams (thanks to zeke). 

That's crazy to me... I would at least take a shot for a 28 year old oft-injured-soon-to-be-FA RB... :shrug:. Maybe I'm nuts idk. This league has 28 man rosters...

ETA: He also only has 1 draft pick (1st rd) but has major jeeds at every position. 

 

/rant

Davis just went s/u for Callaway to a Browns Homer in my league. 

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3 hours ago, dipandglide said:

The classic I want your guy but he sucks approach. These are the best!

Edit - And you shouldn't value him highly because your team sucks. He's worthless! The double zinger at work here. 

The only move that beats this one is...

"Listen to all the reasons why this guy I'm desperately trying to trade is actually awesome."

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7 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Am I missing something...? I realize that no one is paying what Corey Davis is worth on any trade calculator/value chart, but i just had Davis for Chris Thompson declined, from a team who will not make the playoffs but isnt one of the top 3 worst teams (thanks to zeke). 

That's crazy to me... I would at least take a shot for a 28 year old oft-injured-soon-to-be-FA RB... :shrug:. Maybe I'm nuts idk. This league has 28 man rosters...

ETA: He also only has 1 draft pick (1st rd) but has major jeeds at every position. 

 

/rant

Wow.  I thought his value was much higher.  I just asked in the davis for a dynasty value before I saw this, but if it is that low, I may be a buyer in leagues I can afford to hold. 

That offense just isnt the right one for him. I think the guy still has plenty of NFL talent. 

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21 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you doing with Ekeler? - anybody selling or buying?

I don't own him but will be looking to buy. I'm hoping to be able to land him with a late 1st, but expect his value to be all over the place.

a HOLD for me in the only Dynasty league where I own both him and Gordon. If Gordon moves on next year, I hope to have 2 starting RBs.

 

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I’m considering making a move for Ingram in my only dynasty team, as it’s looking like I might contend and could only be one good starter away from having a real go at it, so it’s good to gauge what you are all thinking from the opposite perspective. Thanks for that. I also own Gus Edwards which is some extra insurance. Will report back if I get the trade done 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you doing with Ekeler? - anybody selling or buying?

I don't own him but will be looking to buy. I'm hoping to be able to land him with a late 1st, but expect his value to be all over the place.

I suspect you are right that his value will be all over the place, but a late 1st should be enough. He was RB25 last year (coincidentally both RB25 for the season and RB25 points per game). I like the Ekeler/Jackson combo they've got going, but I'm not confident they'll go into 2020 with that combo if they let Gordon walk in the offseason and I don't think Ekeler's owners should be confident in that, either. So with all the hype around the 2020 class, I think you should be able to strike a deal with a late 1st. But the owner might expect him to be a starter in 2020 in which case you'll be out of luck.

(FWIW, I own zero Ekeler dynasty shares)

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6 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Kerryon?

I like him, but I feel like it’s a great chance to sell.

Got offered Tyreke Hill for Kerryon and Landry.  I like Hill more than kerryon, and I don’t have much love for Landry.

Trying to get a 2020 1st thrown in.  

Wait, you were offered Tyreek for Kerryon and Landry and you haven’t accepted?  You’re trying to get a1st added?  SayWhat?  I hope he pulls the offer.

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37 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Kerryon?

I like him, but I feel like it’s a great chance to sell.

Got offered Tyreke Hill for Kerryon and Landry.  I like Hill more than kerryon, and I don’t have much love for Landry.

Trying to get a 2020 1st thrown in.  

That is an easy sell.  I've been offering up similar deals like this with my Kerryon/ARob package to try and get a high tier player and no one is really interested.

Kerryon is an interesting case, the slow start from an efficiency standpoint is hurting him.  All along everyone was worried about him not getting a big workload but now they've cut his only reliable backup and are giving him a huge share of the work (20 and 26 carries the last 2 weeks) and if anything his value seems to have dropped some.

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Thinking about moving Jaylen Samuels to the guy who has Conner (and he’s a Steeler fan), in exchange for Darrell Henderson.  I took over a team that is a few years from being any good, and am wanting to stockpile talent for 2-5 years out.  Is this decent value for Samuels? 

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2 hours ago, neal cassady said:

Thinking about moving Jaylen Samuels to the guy who has Conner (and he’s a Steeler fan), in exchange for Darrell Henderson.  I took over a team that is a few years from being any good, and am wanting to stockpile talent for 2-5 years out.  Is this decent value for Samuels? 

I'd make that trade in a second for Darrell.  I know he hasn't shown anything this year yet, but he is theoretically the future starting RB for the Rams.

I like Samuels but he seems like a gadget player in a committee to me, long term.

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On 10/1/2019 at 4:45 PM, joey said:

I'd make that trade in a second for Darrell.  I know he hasn't shown anything this year yet, but he is theoretically the future starting RB for the Rams.

I like Samuels but he seems like a gadget player in a committee to me, long term.

Well that didn’t work, but the same guy wants Jaylen Samuels and my 2nd round pick (should be very early 2nd round pick in 12 team league) for Brandin Cooks.  I’m rebuilding, but Cooks seems worth Samuels and a second rounder to me..thoughts are appreciated.  

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26 minutes ago, neal cassady said:

Well that didn’t work, but the same guy wants Jaylen Samuels and my 2nd round pick (should be very early 2nd round pick in 12 team league) for Brandin Cooks.  I’m rebuilding, but Cooks seems worth Samuels and a second rounder to me..thoughts are appreciated.  

Run, don't walk to accept. 

ETA - There are some years, like this one, where I wouldn't trade Cooks for 1.01 pick.  This year that pick was Jacobs in most drafts I saw.  I would have taken Cooks over Jacobs and any of the WRs who were taken early in rookie drafts.  He's worth far more than Samuels and an early 2nd IMO.

Edited by RC94
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2 hours ago, neal cassady said:

Well that didn’t work, but the same guy wants Jaylen Samuels and my 2nd round pick (should be very early 2nd round pick in 12 team league) for Brandin Cooks.  I’m rebuilding, but Cooks seems worth Samuels and a second rounder to me..thoughts are appreciated.  

From a pure value perspective, Cooks is easily worth more.  That said, I think Cooks never recoupes value from here on out during his career, and Jaylen likely is going to go up at some point if what happened last week continues.  Personally I would take the Jaylen side of this deal as I don't want to own Cooks at all, but I favor youth heavily and I hate depreciating assets unless I'm win now.  And even then I don't particularly like them.  

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13 hours ago, DropKick said:

Value check on Waller.  He is a luxury as I have two other elite/solid TE options.  Prefer a starting caliber RB/WR, but would consider a longer term asset with some present value (Metcalf? AJ Brown?)  Doubt I could land a young back in this league.

I’d feel better about him if he was under contract after this year; I worry about him leaving and looking like Jared Cook. That said, I like him enough to have offered Thielen for him in a league where I am deep at WR but starting Witten at TE. 

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Did we overrate Juju?

There’s a security that comes with elite NFL players and I don’t Juju offers that. He’s not situation proof but we treated him like he was. His production was propped up by playing the slot in a pass happy offense with a QB capable of creating outside of the system and a HOFer (based on talent) pulling coverage on the other side. He’s not an elite NFL athlete - and while he has a plus catch radius and huge hands, he doesn’t use them as effectively as Hopkins and OBJ. 

He’s obviously a very talented player and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him becoming an elite receiver eventually. But his situation is unlikely to be as good as it was last season anytime soon, if ever. It’s fair to ask what he is outside of that. 

I know this likely sounds hot takey and the timing is convenient. But if owners are still willing to add to guys like Godwin, Evans, or Adams for Juju, I’m selling. 

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22 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Did we overrate Juju?

There’s a security that comes with elite NFL players and I don’t Juju offers that. He’s not situation proof but we treated him like he was. His production was propped up by playing the slot in a pass happy offense with a QB capable of creating outside of the system and a HOFer (based on talent) pulling coverage on the other side. He’s not an elite NFL athlete - and while he has a plus catch radius and huge hands, he doesn’t use them as effectively as Hopkins and OBJ. 

He’s obviously a very talented player and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him becoming an elite receiver eventually. But his situation is unlikely to be as good as it was last season anytime soon, if ever. It’s fair to ask what he is outside of that. 

I know this likely sounds hot takey and the timing is convenient. But if owners are still willing to add to guys like Godwin, Evans, or Adams for Juju, I’m selling. 

I don't think anyone is buying JuJu at those prices. Especially with Mason for 2019, Big Ben question mark, and Dionte looking legit early on. He's high end wr2 at this point. Think he was ascended by fantasy circles a little too soon. 

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13 hours ago, DropKick said:

Value check on Waller.  He is a luxury as I have two other elite/solid TE options.  Prefer a starting caliber RB/WR, but would consider a longer term asset with some present value (Metcalf? AJ Brown?)  Doubt I could land a young back in this league.

He should be viewed pretty closely to Evan Engram I would imagine.  I still put him below due to age and longevity of production but he's in that conversation.  TE premium he's worth quite a bit more than a good showing rookie.  Not TE premium I think he's pretty close to those types of guys.  

25 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Did we overrate Juju?

There’s a security that comes with elite NFL players and I don’t Juju offers that. He’s not situation proof but we treated him like he was. His production was propped up by playing the slot in a pass happy offense with a QB capable of creating outside of the system and a HOFer (based on talent) pulling coverage on the other side. He’s not an elite NFL athlete - and while he has a plus catch radius and huge hands, he doesn’t use them as effectively as Hopkins and OBJ. 

He’s obviously a very talented player and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him becoming an elite receiver eventually. But his situation is unlikely to be as good as it was last season anytime soon, if ever. It’s fair to ask what he is outside of that. 

I know this likely sounds hot takey and the timing is convenient. But if owners are still willing to add to guys like Godwin, Evans, or Adams for Juju, I’m selling. 

Hindsight he was definitely overrated.  I'm still happy with what he's done in a not so great situation if I paid a 1st round startup pick as a cornerstone of my team.  He's still a highly ranked guy, but he's more WR2 than WR1 for now.  Ben comes back next year and I expect Diontae to take a big step by then, plus whoever else they add in 2020 (which they will).  He just might be undervalued by then.  I expect him to still be a top36 pick next year.  That's a far cry from top10 but he won't plummet more than that.  I wouldn't want to sell him unless it's as if he's a top10 pick still.  And even then it would make me nervous because I know he'll trend up in the future (compared to right now where he's suppressed).  

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35 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What's the value of Juju in dynasty PPR now? I am looking to cash out. I was offered David Johnson straight up, but this is a league that heavily favors WRs (Start 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE + 2 flex) I also have a hole @ TE, but aside from kelce, I can't see a TE I'd move him straight up for.

DJ has what, 2 years left of any good FF production? Not sure I should do it.

If you want out I'd offer JuJu and a second for a young WR you like. Or converse offer JuJu for a vet plus pick(s). TY would be a great target. 

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