As always, in a seller's market you'll have to pay a premium if you're trying to pry a player away from a team that wasn't shopping him, but if you were to be selling RBs to a team with extra WRs in need of RBs, I don't think you'd have to pay a top 15 WR price for Chark, McLaurin, or Sutton. But most importantly, if you were to do a startup right now, I would not expect to see those guys be taken in the top 15 of their position.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Chark and Sutton will be going well before WR15 in off-season startup drafts if their current production holds. It's certainly reasonable to bet against that happening, but that startups aren't taking place right now is kind of the point of the exercise. In general, if you're buying these guys right now it's because you're sold and are paying accordingly.
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These are all guys I would want over Godwin (in no particular order)
Hopkins, Thomas, OBJ, Adams, Thielen, Hill, Julio, Cooper, Allen, JuJu, Evans, Kupp……..
I am not saying Godwin can't beat out any of those guys but I would rather have those other guys over him....It's a toss up for me between Godwin, JuJu, Evans, Allen, Kupp, Thielen, Cooper, Julio……...so I guess I have them all kind of in the same tier so to speak. The other guys would be a tier above.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Intuitively I did not agree with this, so I took a look. First, here are the current top 15 WRs in total points (1 PPR):
- Thomas
- Godwin
- Diggs
- Kupp
- Cooper
- Chark
- Julio
- Hopkins
- Allen
- Lockett
- Edelman
- Sutton
- Thielen
- Robinson
- McLaurin
- Godwin
- Thomas
- Kupp
- Cooper
- Hilton
- Jackson
- Chark
- Robinson
- Julio
- Hopkins
- Allen
- Ross
- Diggs
- Evans
- Lockett
That is 19 total names in those lists above. That group does not include these notable WRs, all of whom were top 15 in ADP as of 9/4/19:
- Adams - ADP 2
- Beckham - ADP 5
- Juju - ADP 6
- Hill - ADP 7
- Antonio Brown - ADP 8
- Thielen - ADP 10
- Cooks - ADP 15
As of today, I expect these guys are locks for top 15 startup value next year, barring catastrophic injury and/or off field events (in no particular order):
- Thomas - top 2 on both lists despite Brees injury; 26 years old
- Godwin - top 2 on both lists despite presence of Evans and subpar QB play; 23 years old
- Kupp - top 4 on both lists despite presence of Cooks and Woods; 26 years old
- Cooper - top 5 on both lists; 25 years old
- Julio - top 10 on both lists; on pace for 6th straight season over 1400 receiving yards; 30 years old
- Hopkins - top 10 on both lists; finished top 4 in 3 of previous 4 seasons; expect he will finish 2019 higher than his current ranking; 27 years old
- Adams - numbers currently down due to transition to new offense and injury that will not linger into future seasons; 26 years old
- Beckham - numbers currently down due to transition to new offense; expect he will finish 2019 higher than his current ranking; expect Kitchens will be gone, creating optimism for improved offense; 26 years old
- Juju - only 6 games in and has played 4.5 games with QB2 Rudolph and QB3 Hodges; expect he will finish 2019 higher than his current ranking; expect Roethlisberger will return, creating optimism for improved offense; 22 (!) years old
- Hill - left game 1 early due to injury, skewing his numbers; his PPG in the 2 full games he has played rank him #3 right now, and that is despite Mahomes playing at less than 100% in those games and QB2 Moore playing most of 1 of them; 25 years old
- Evans
- Diggs
- Allen
- Lockett
- Thelien
- Hilton
- Robinson
- All rookies
- All older veterans (e.g., Edelman, Green, Brown)
- Any other young WR who has a strong performance the rest of 2019 (e.g., Marquise Brown)
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If Chark finishes with the 1,300/11 that he’s on pace for, he’ll go ahead of Kupp, Julio, and Adams, too. Or should. Sutton might need to pick it up just a bit.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Adams seems like the type of guy who will hang onto a high ranking despite the injury plagued year, unless the Packers do something drastic
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t disagree. But those numbers at 23, coupled with the athletic profile and solid draft capital - Chark is going to be a high end dynasty asset if he can keep it up. I think plenty of owners will take Chark and the 3.5 years. I could certainly be wrong, and I do agree that Adams’ value will hold relatively steady.
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Birdie048
Footballguy
I made an offer 3 weeks ago on Carson... 12 Team Dynasty PPR 1/2/2/1 & 2 Flex
Note: Offer was made when Kamara was out and Freeman was healthy... and they needed RB2 help (their RB depth = Ballage & Hines)
Offered ATL RB D Freeman & NOS RB L Murray and a 3rd (late) for Carson ... rejected and no counter or feedback. They have since lost 3 in a row.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
what do we think about juju vs sutton/chark types rest of season? are we sure ben comes back? long term is juju a slam dunk over those types?....
Good question. All 3 arguably have long term QB questions. Even if Ben comes back next year we have to ask what life after his career is like for JuJu. I still have JuJu above Chark and Sutton but I’m guessing his value will vary widely based on how individuals in our leagues view his talent. Recency probably means you’d have to offer JuJu almost straight up for guys in the Chark/Sutton tier; at least that’s what I’d expect in my leagues. I don’t feel comfortable selling at that price.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Rest of season I think Chark and Sutton are clear upgrades over Juju. In terms of dynasty value, I don’t think it’s a slam dunk, but still prefer Juju. He’s younger, has proven more, and has more trade value, should I decide to move him in the near future.
I expect Ben to come back, and the Steelers to put more around Rudolph if not. I think Juju’s situation is likely to improve next season.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Mentioned this in the carson thread but may as well ask here.
What do we think Carson's startup value is right now?
What do we think Carson's startup value is right now?
The Captain
Footballguy
Thoughts on Guice value right now in non-ppr dynasty? Value could either jump or decline once he starts getting touches so if you wanted to sell before he hits the field what would it take?
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Here are some mocks done within the last week that have him at 4.3 on average. That seems a little low to me.
http://mizelle.net/mfl/2019/
ghostguy123
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I own Barkley and pretty much vowed to never trade him.
But, the Kamara owner is sniffing around and he owns 4 first round picks next year, three of them will be mid-late and one will be early-mid.
What's the consensus on Barkley's value at this point. I cant believe that I would find myself turning down Kamara and two 2020 firsts, but I'm not sure I could pull the trigger there.
But, the Kamara owner is sniffing around and he owns 4 first round picks next year, three of them will be mid-late and one will be early-mid.
What's the consensus on Barkley's value at this point. I cant believe that I would find myself turning down Kamara and two 2020 firsts, but I'm not sure I could pull the trigger there.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Guice (IMO) short term is not going to help any competitive team this year... Wash Offense is not firing on the right cylinders....
Long Term - I think they can repair things to for him to be a valuable RB2 but the Off/OL limitations cap his value.
tkrull
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
There's been no offer yet, just some chatting back and forth. I'm really struggling with this one.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Kamara and the early first or Kamara and two late ones would be enough to tempt me. Early plus two late would be more of an offseason move when I no longer needed an RB in a lineup this week.
That said, it is situational. My current home league team has Barkley and is a perennial contender. It doesn’t need more depth so I’d rather consolidate into star players than break them up into multiple lesser assets. I wouldn’t do the deal there.
Another league, where my dynasty is crumbling thsnks to Antonio going nuts and Rivers falling off a cliff, the idea of 2-4 talents in this rich upcoming draft class that could outlast Barkley by years once the rebuild is over, and I’d be happy to move on.
That said, it is situational. My current home league team has Barkley and is a perennial contender. It doesn’t need more depth so I’d rather consolidate into star players than break them up into multiple lesser assets. I wouldn’t do the deal there.
Another league, where my dynasty is crumbling thsnks to Antonio going nuts and Rivers falling off a cliff, the idea of 2-4 talents in this rich upcoming draft class that could outlast Barkley by years once the rebuild is over, and I’d be happy to move on.
RC94
Footballguy
IMO Reynolds, but he will probably have to leave the crowded LAR WRs until he gets a consistent chance to play a significant role.
kutta
Footballguy
Damn. That’s tough.
Chark last. Golladay first. Godwin a close second. Moore and Kirk a close third and fourth.
I think...
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Godwin, Golladay, Chark, Kirk, Moore (somebody had to be last)
I think Kirk is the biggest x-factor out of these for me
And by this do you mean you could potentially see him at the top of this list in a year or so? Because I agree.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Good list. I could see valid points for any order. Many of their QBs are up in the air and Kirk may be on the most solid ground there. If gun to head:
Kenny Golladay. Seems like the one most capable of being a WR1. This is assuming Stafford continues to QB the Lions.
Chris Godwin. Great player but gets the benefit of having Big Mike take the top corners. QB a concern going forward but is a good security blanket for a young signal caller.
DJ Moore. Love him as a player, just not sure he will ever get fed WR1 target amounts. (Edit...he has 10 and 11 targets last two games). Also unsure what the QB situation is going forward.
Christian Kirk. Love the pairing with Murray and showed his upside last week. I just don’t have a good feel for what he is yet. Doesn’t feel like a WR1 but definitely has his place.
DJ Chark. Has had some great weeks and some quiet weeks. New to the production scene so may have caught some defenses by surprise. Least confident based on his short resume.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Godwin
Chark
Galloday
Moore
Kirk
Chark
Galloday
Moore
Kirk
Tau837
Footballguy
This last series of posts reminded me of this post from @Concept Coop
I commented then that I thought it was an overstatement. Looks like there isn't really a consensus on Chark's value yet. Will be interesting to watch the rest of the way.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
Like everyone else I had a hard time with this. Assuming ppr
1a Godwin - expect him to be a yearly 100+ catch 1000+ yard player no matter who's at qb, plus is great yac
1b Golladay - behind Godwin due to the fact that his game is based more on the big play.
3 Kirk - someone needs to be the alpha in the air raid. I'm not quite sure it won't be issabella in 2 years. But for now it's looking like Kirk
4 Chark - will have to see how he works with Foles
5 Moore - this offense runs on CMC. As noted above he's getting a big target share, but when it comes to rz or important downs you know where the ball is going.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is a great question and not one that is easy to answer because I think all of these players are similarly talented and young. I think these players are for the most part in the same tier although some are more proven than others.
If you were to rank them based on career VBD produced so far
Golladay 66
Godwin 62
Chark 36
Sutton 23
Moore 4
Kirk 0
Because these are such young players though, we are more interested in what they will produce in years ahead.
It is hard to project what these players will do in years ahead. Those projections would for me still be based on what they have produced so far. So similar to VBD to date order.
Based on pre NFL draft evaluations I had Moore and Kirk ranked a lot higher than Sutton and I wouldn't change that yet (the players are still too young and unproven at this point)
Chark is a guy I didn't really evaluate as a college prospect. He has been a surprise to me. I do have some fog of war when it comes to the Jaguars who I rarely read about or get to see play.
Based on the VBD Godwin should be in a tier by himself above the other WR.
Considering the situation around the player, I think Kirk gets the biggest bump here because of Murray being the best QB of these teams.
There are a lot of other things I could consider as well, but based on the above factors I would rank them like this:
Tier one
Golladay
Godwin
Tier two
Moore
Kirk
Sutton
Chark
Kind of a coin flip for me between Golladay and Godwin. I think I like Golladays situation better. I could see going either way though and might just depend on what I had for lunch that day.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Nope.
Not sure how I mixed that up but I did.
Golladay currently has 66 VBD which is more than Godwin. He should be in tier one. I will fix that and just leave Sutton in there I guess.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'd bet against it but yeah that's what I was getting at. Or he could drop down a bit.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think I should point out that those tiers are only in vacuum.
If you evaluate the players by VBD and use data for more than just this season, there are WR with much higher career VBD who would be ranked ahead of these guys by a high enough margin to drop them into tier two if we are talking about the WR value overall.
These players are still so young that they haven't had enough time to compete with that. For the older WR with more seasons of data to work with, then you have to look at it more from a VBD per season type basis instead of overall. Thats another step to this as far as overall rankings I didn't do here.
If you evaluate the players by VBD and use data for more than just this season, there are WR with much higher career VBD who would be ranked ahead of these guys by a high enough margin to drop them into tier two if we are talking about the WR value overall.
These players are still so young that they haven't had enough time to compete with that. For the older WR with more seasons of data to work with, then you have to look at it more from a VBD per season type basis instead of overall. Thats another step to this as far as overall rankings I didn't do here.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I was offered Kerryon, Aaron Jones and a 2nd for Barkley today actually. Told him no chance at that price. I didn't counter because I was unsure of what I actually wanted, but my first thought was Kittle, Nuk, and Miles Sanders in TE premium. Didn't send it though cause I'm not sure if I'd even do that.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Godwin
Chark
Golladay
Moore
Kirk
Edit: Swapped Moore and Kirk
Chark
Golladay
Moore
Kirk
Edit: Swapped Moore and Kirk
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Micheal Gallup is out-scoring Golladay, Kirk, and Moore PPG. Is he in the same tier as these guys?
Tau837
Footballguy
What are people thinking about David Johnson right now? AFAIK he is healthy but played just 7 snaps and had 0 touches yesterday. He has seemingly been surpassed by Drake, who has only been with the team for a few weeks.
While I have long felt that Johnson is overrated, I did not see that coming.
While I have long felt that Johnson is overrated, I did not see that coming.
Tau837
Footballguy
To really do justice to some of the WR discussion (which is good), we really should talk about top 25 or 30 WRs.
(He says, hoping others will post rankings.)
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I have to believe his back is a bigger issue than they’re letting on. His contract is such that AZ is stuck with him, so his owners better hope that is the case. In terms of dynasty value, I’d probably sell for an early 2nd at this point.
Tau837
Footballguy
Here are today's consensus PPR dynasty WR rankings from FantasyPros:
- Michael Thomas NO
- DeAndre Hopkins HOU
- JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT
- Davante Adams GB
- Tyreek Hill KC
- Amari Cooper DAL
- Odell Beckham Jr. CLE
- Mike Evans TB
- Chris Godwin TB
- Cooper Kupp LAR
- Keenan Allen LAC
- Julio Jones ATL
- Stefon Diggs MIN
- Kenny Golladay DET
- D.J. Moore CAR
- Calvin Ridley ATL
- Tyler Lockett SEA
- Adam Thielen MIN
- Courtland Sutton DEN
- Brandin Cooks LAR
- D.K. Metcalf SEA
- Allen Robinson CHI
- T.Y. Hilton IND
- Christian Kirk ARI
- Tyler Boyd CIN
- D.J. Chark JAC
- Robert Woods LAR
- N'Keal Harry NE
- Terry McLaurin WAS
- Mike Williams LAC
- Marquise Brown BAL
- A.J. Brown TEN
- Corey Davis TEN
- Sammy Watkins KC
- Michael Gallup DAL
- Curtis Samuel CAR
- Will Fuller HOU
- Jarvis Landry CLE
- Mecole Hardman KC
- A.J. Green CIN O
- Alshon Jeffery PHI
- Deebo Samuel SF
- Robby Anderson NYJ
- Sterling Shepard NYG
- Marvin Jones DET
- Julian Edelman NE
- Dede Westbrook JAC
- Tyrell Williams OAK
- Parris Campbell IND
- Josh Gordon SEA
