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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It isn't clear to me how they gathered the ADP yet. But they seem pretty rigorous about it.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd say 1.08-1.10. The upside is there, as is his path to production. I take some comfort in the fact that the two injuries were unrelated. He is less of an injury concern than DT was at this point.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think the 1.01 gets drafted quite a bit higher than Fournette right now, since you don't have to make the call on a single player pre NFL draft. In my startup, the 1.01 went 1.12. In the consensus rankings, it went 1.11, IIRC. That might be a bit high, since Davis, Cook and maybe even Fournette have seen their stock dip a bit; but I think it's closer than 22, personally. I'd be stoked to get the 1.01 at 22 myself. I'd be interested in hearing where others value it.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah those picks did go higher in he recent polls and there is an effect that you describe of the pick being one of several possible players instead of being specifically locked down to one player.
Everyone has a different opinion. I value the the top 50 or so veteran players pretty highly, at the same time I did draft Elliot with pick 1.10 in a start up last year. So it isn't that strange to value them highly if you really believe in the player.
That said Elliot to Dallas was a special case. I may be overly conservative about valuing the rookies in the pre NFL draft process.
Just looking at the dynasty rankings I worked on back in January, Corey Davis is my top rookie prospect for 2017 and going down my list, I could see drafting him over Jarvis Landry, maybe?
Odell Beckham
David Johnson
Ezekiel Elliot
Mike Evans
Antonio Bryant
Julio Jones
LeVeon Bell
Amari Cooper
Sammy Watkins
TY Hilton
AJ Green
DeAndre Hopkins
Allen Robinson
Keenan Allen
Brandin Cooks
Rob Gronkowski
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon
Devonta Freeman
Michael Thomas
20 Corey Davis??
Javis Landry
Travis Kelce
DeMarius Thomas
Jordan Howard
Dez Bryant
Alshon Jeffrey
27 Dalvin Cook??
28 Christian McCaffrey ??
29 Leonard Fournette ??
Jay Ajayi
Stefon Diggs
Doug Baldwin
Jordy Nelson
Golden Tate
35 Evan Engram ??
Jordan Reed
LeSean McCoy
38 OJ Howard
39 David Njoku
Derrick Henry
Carlos Hyde
Lamar Miller
Corey Coleman
Michael Crabtree
Mark Ingram
46 Joe Mixon
DeMarco Murray
Tyler Lockett
Devantae Adams
Devantae Parker
Kelvin Benjamin
Randall Cobb
53 John Ross
Jamison Crowder
Willie Snead
56 Zay Jones
John Brown
Donte Moncrief
59 Samaje Perine
60 D'Onta Foreman
Josh Doctson
Larry Fitzgerald
Julian Edelman
Sterling Shephard
61 Curtis Samuel
And so on.
I think I have missed several players in my overall rankings, which I didn't finish. So there are some holes here. Obviously missing players are ones I don't that much care about (but maybe should). or I just wasn't sure where to rank them.
By using the same tier system for how I rank rookies, however does allow me to slot them in the overall list. For example Derrick Henry was the first player of my tier two guys last year. I have the 3 TE as tier one prospects, so they would slot higher than him for me. I value the top 3 TE similarly to Jordan Reed so I start thinking about ranking them there as my last tier one players. So I think this is close to how I would value them after you fill in some holes of players I didn't rank (pushing the rookies down the list somewhat).
Everyone has a different opinion. I value the the top 50 or so veteran players pretty highly, at the same time I did draft Elliot with pick 1.10 in a start up last year. So it isn't that strange to value them highly if you really believe in the player.
That said Elliot to Dallas was a special case. I may be overly conservative about valuing the rookies in the pre NFL draft process.
Just looking at the dynasty rankings I worked on back in January, Corey Davis is my top rookie prospect for 2017 and going down my list, I could see drafting him over Jarvis Landry, maybe?
Odell Beckham
David Johnson
Ezekiel Elliot
Mike Evans
Antonio Bryant
Julio Jones
LeVeon Bell
Amari Cooper
Sammy Watkins
TY Hilton
AJ Green
DeAndre Hopkins
Allen Robinson
Keenan Allen
Brandin Cooks
Rob Gronkowski
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon
Devonta Freeman
Michael Thomas
20 Corey Davis??
Javis Landry
Travis Kelce
DeMarius Thomas
Jordan Howard
Dez Bryant
Alshon Jeffrey
27 Dalvin Cook??
28 Christian McCaffrey ??
29 Leonard Fournette ??
Jay Ajayi
Stefon Diggs
Doug Baldwin
Jordy Nelson
Golden Tate
35 Evan Engram ??
Jordan Reed
LeSean McCoy
38 OJ Howard
39 David Njoku
Derrick Henry
Carlos Hyde
Lamar Miller
Corey Coleman
Michael Crabtree
46 Joe Mixon
DeMarco Murray
Tyler Lockett
Devantae Adams
Devantae Parker
Kelvin Benjamin
Randall Cobb
53 John Ross
Jamison Crowder
Willie Snead
56 Zay Jones
John Brown
Donte Moncrief
59 Samaje Perine
60 D'Onta Foreman
Josh Doctson
Larry Fitzgerald
Sterling Shephard
61 Curtis Samuel
And so on.
I think I have missed several players in my overall rankings, which I didn't finish. So there are some holes here. Obviously missing players are ones I don't that much care about (but maybe should). or I just wasn't sure where to rank them.
By using the same tier system for how I rank rookies, however does allow me to slot them in the overall list. For example Derrick Henry was the first player of my tier two guys last year. I have the 3 TE as tier one prospects, so they would slot higher than him for me. I value the top 3 TE similarly to Jordan Reed so I start thinking about ranking them there as my last tier one players. So I think this is close to how I would value them after you fill in some holes of players I didn't rank (pushing the rookies down the list somewhat).
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If you liked the Josh Gordon comeback, you'll LOVE the Antonio Bryant comeback!I love how much play "Antonio Bryant" still gets on these boards, though tier 3 and 5 overall is a bit high. At least for me.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Why do you have Johnson above Bell? Just curious. I know some people do it thinking that Johnson is younger, even though he's actually 3 months older.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
Putting a name to the pick instantly devalues it IMO. The 1.01 is worth a lot more than just what Corey Davis is worth, especially this year pre-draft when there are 6~7 very talented prospects and many of them could end up in good situations were they could be a bell-cow or could be the go-to WR (history has shown that likely not all of them will though.) Everyone has their preferences, but I would take this years 1.01 over 6~8 guys on your list here and could make an argument in a startup that I would prefer the 1.01 to 3~4 others due to their age, injuries or other issues.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I value the 1.01 a lot more than that, myself. I'm a Landry guy, but I'd pack his backs for the 1.04, even. For me, the question is: 1.01 or Gurley? Robinson? Hopkins? Green? Gronk? Thomas? Freeman? Sammy?Biabreakable said:
I go back and forth on who my 1.01 is, but I'll take Fournette (Jax @4) over Gurley, FWIW.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Vegas has Joe Mixon at +160 to go in the first round. If he does, he's my 1.01.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What would you add to Kelce for Gronk?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'd rather just sit tight with Kelce to be honest. Gronk is worth more but I'd hold onto whatever asset it would take for the upgrade.
Same. KC has been kicking the tires on a lot of the rookie QB's too. If they take one early I would be pretty excited by the idea of someone other than Alex Smith throwing him passes.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In this draft "yes". Gronk is a clear advantage over every other team, when healthy, but Kelce is an advantage over most other teams as well. With Gronk's chronic back issues, my fear would be that the Pats decrease his workload a bit to keep him fresh and healthy. They added Cooks, traded for Dwayne Allen, signed Gillislee and Burkhead. We saw James White emerge. I think all of this adds up to limiting their reliance on Gronk.
That's not to say that he won't still be highly productive or that Kelce plus 2.01 blow Gronk away, it's just that Gronk is starting to show some cracks in the armor and there is some risk that he no longer become the huge advantage he once was for his owners.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think this is fair. I think I could go as high as 1.08, in addition to Kelce. (But don't hold me to that.) I don't love the 1st round after the top 6 and Kamara. If Kelce didn't have the microfracture stuff, I'd likely be right there with you; but both guys have the injury flag. I think your concerns are certainly valid and am not sure I'd pull the trigger on Kelce/1.08, but I would happily add the 2.01 to upgrade. Thanks for your thoughts.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Good catch. I have been playing this game for too long. Wires cross a lot.jeaton6 said:I love how much play "Antonio Bryant" still gets on these boards, though tier 3 and 5 overall is a bit high. At least for me.
Bryant was good but not quite as good as Brown.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Mainly because of concern about furute suspension. There isn't that big of a difference, I just see less risk from Johnson.steelers1080 said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Jordan Reed has the concussion history.
Players who play TE get hurt a lot. Because of this I see those top 5 TE spots changing to a younger group of players in a couple years.
I still think I am likely valuing the rookie TE about 30 spots higher than I would actually draft them (because of ADP) I just don't think the tier two rookie players are more valuable than the TE.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I would prefer real drafts to mock drafts.
I like the site though, it has some interesting features for entering you teams roster or just looking at a specific player. I might try using it more.
The MFL ADP doesn't make a lot of sense right now as if you sort by after Dec 2016 the results have Tom Brady as the number one player. That ADP looks like it was for playoff leagues mostly.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I see that from the polls and so on.Buckna said:
But is the pick really worth more? As you say once you make the pick it devalues it, so isn't that the picks actual value?
The value is inflated if it loses value once you make the pick. So why not account for that?
As far as who you might take a rookie player over, everyone will have a different opinion about that. My opinion is that rookie bust about 50% of the time and to become relevant in fantasy is an even higher bar for these players to reach. Seems too optimistic to me. I am even catching rookie fever a bit now and think I am slotting the rookies at their absolute upside as it is. Post NFL draft I mostly see players going down rather than up, because you will be placing a name to the picks then.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
The NFL draft will drastically change how players are valued. It's not the act of making the pick that deflates the value. It's the risk of a player seeing his value drop on draft night. If Leonard Fournette goes top 4, he'll be drafted well ahead of his current ADP, and likely where the 1.01 is now. Same with Mixon going in the 1st or Davis going top 5.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
The pick loses value because, on average, once you name it some people are going to hate the name. As long as it's 1.01 Xue can say "I love 1.01 more than Gurley" but he wouldn't say that if you plop Fournette in there, who may be someone else's #1. In other words, the 1.01 is always the "perfect pick" for every person participating in the poll. Not only that but player values aren't yet set because landing spot isn't known. I love Mixon, and might put him at #16 overall, but if he goes to Cincinnati I might have to go with Cook 1.01 who I would have put at 20 just because Mixon went to a sub-optimal spot.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would say all of that should caution us to not over value the picks at this point of time in trades and so on.
As Coop points out if Fournette (or McCaffrey or whoever) goes to Jax as the 4th overall pick, for people who really like that player, it is going to increase the perceived value of the pick and what people will pay for it.
I personally don't see any of the RB going in the top 10 and I am not sure Corey Davis will either. So I am not anticipating that the tier one players are going to gain value, at least for me. If I am wrong about that then I will reconsider. I have already pretty much decided that Mike Williams will not move up to tier one post NFL draft for me, even if he is a high pick as expected.
The NFL draft will surprise me though and I will change my mind about the rookies because of that. I haven't spent much time reading mock drafts or listening to people talk about it as most years. So my idea of where the players will be drafted may be very different than what actually happens. So those differences will cause me to rethink things, as well as how I see the player fitting in with their new offense. I will have players on that team to compare the rookie to, and guess where they will fit into their offense.
As Coop points out if Fournette (or McCaffrey or whoever) goes to Jax as the 4th overall pick, for people who really like that player, it is going to increase the perceived value of the pick and what people will pay for it.
I personally don't see any of the RB going in the top 10 and I am not sure Corey Davis will either. So I am not anticipating that the tier one players are going to gain value, at least for me. If I am wrong about that then I will reconsider. I have already pretty much decided that Mike Williams will not move up to tier one post NFL draft for me, even if he is a high pick as expected.
The NFL draft will surprise me though and I will change my mind about the rookies because of that. I haven't spent much time reading mock drafts or listening to people talk about it as most years. So my idea of where the players will be drafted may be very different than what actually happens. So those differences will cause me to rethink things, as well as how I see the player fitting in with their new offense. I will have players on that team to compare the rookie to, and guess where they will fit into their offense.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
If Jax takes Fournette #4 it doesn't prove anything other than Jax is a dysfunctional franchise. I think he's a much more known commodity than the other players. If Davis, Mike Williams, or Howard goes top 10 I think it offers more of a boost to value. Cook going 19 or 2nd round is a big swing as well.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Jacksonville has done some nice things lately, including a fantastic draft class last year. It's not a huge boost to Fournette, but it cements his value. Watching him slide, and watching McCaffery go ahead of him at 8, would hurt it. I do agree with your other comments.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Jax could be a good Ray Rhodes/Andy Reid type story where the previous coach put all the defensive pieces in place. But drafting Fournette would be a same stuff different day scenario repeating the Ivory signing last year, likely with similar impact. I doubt Coughlin will do it, although if Marrone's drafts in Buffalo are any indication, it could happen. If the Panthers, Jets, Giants, Eagles, Colts get him instead, to me he is the same player. If he drops past the Colts it will definitely get interesting.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You don't think Fournette drastically helps that offense? I wouldn't take him at 4 either. (As I Cowboys fan, I'd happily move Zeke for Bosa or Ramsey.) But I see him having a big impact, should he land there.
I start worrying at 10, personally, especially if he's not the top back selected. He's still likely in the 1.01 mix, but it's harder to ignore the concerns if he's not the top 10 pick I thought he was. I see the Bengals as his floor, currently.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't view Fournette as the type of RB you build an offense around. He is a huge improvement over Ivory but does not make them an above average offense without QB improvement. They will still live and die with Bortles' development (or replacement). Elliott doesn't happen without the line and the QB, both. Even Peterson's earlier years were aided by good to elite veterans down the left side.
I'd have no concerns if a team takes McCaffery over him. Fournette has to fit with your offense. It would be like a 4-3 team taking a 3-4 DE. Ok that happens all the time because teams are dumb, but it is a legitimate reason to pass on Fournette. It is like Will Fuller last year. He was taken due to fit, and did not affect the value of the players taken right after him. I would be concerned if a similar RB was taken over him, but there aren't any until you get to Foreman.
Granted there are teams he could be a fit for that may pass, like Carolina.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That's fair. I think Fournette is a guy you build your offense around, especially if you take him top 5 (but I know that wasn't your point). In order for him to do anything close to Elliott, Bortles, Robinson, and Albert need to play at 2015 levels. I'm not counting on it. That said, I think they win 8+ games with an average offense, and think Fournette get them there..
I certainly see your point about fit. JAX, NYJ, CAR and CIN all look like fits on paper. All of them passing would worry me, as a 1.01 owner.
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Yeah, we will see in a 48 hours but I do think this year is special (or at least more like the old drafts a decade ago.) Fournette and McCaffrey look like locks for the 1st round and possibly the top 10. If Mixon didn't have the video and Cook hadn't of faceplanted at the combine I think they would be locks for the 1st as well. I don't think either will go in the 1st but they may still. Then you have 3 WR's as possible locks for the 1st and a couple of TE's that are possible as well. It's a heck of a year for fantasy.
Honestly I think Fournette doesn't make it past 4 but stranger things have happened. We may end up with something like a Gurley type landing spot where a not so obvious team because of other needs takes him because of how talented he is.
Honestly I think Fournette doesn't make it past 4 but stranger things have happened. We may end up with something like a Gurley type landing spot where a not so obvious team because of other needs takes him because of how talented he is.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Value check on a very polarizing player......Will Fuller. PPR league, what draft pick is he worth in this years draft? Use a number since league sizes differ, a late first in a 10 team league is much different than a late first in a 16 team league. My feeling is pick 14-16
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't like him, so much so I didn't draft him last year and traded out of the mid 2nd when he was the last player left in that tier, but I think he's worth more than that. I think he's worth more than Ross who's 1.9 in Biabreakable's poll rankings. If somehow HOU drafts Mahomes (or Watson, but particularly Mahomes due to the arm strength). I think his value goes up even more. Somewhere in 1.9 to 1.12 range. I think Howard, Kamara, and Foreman will clearly be worth more, and Ross, Njoku and Perine will be worth about the same. Lower in TE premium due to the 3 TEs. His upside is capped but selling him for less than a late 1st is giving in to rookie fever.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't necessarily like Ross that much but I do think he is a better prospect that Fuller.
The Texans QB situation should improve eventually. I just don't think Fuller is ever going to get enough targets to be more than a WR 2 in PPR format, He is worth a bit more in standard scoring leagues because of the big play potential, but I think there are a lot of WR who can do that similarly well as Fuller.
I see that Mike Clay has John Ross slotted just ahead of Fuller, so he must see them as pretty similarly valued. This is for standard scoring format. So Fuller would be a bit lower in a PPR league presumably.
According to DLF mock drafts Fuller is going with pick 80 overall. This slots him after Mixon but before Kamara as far as rookies go and Kamara is the 7th rookie overall, so according to this he is being drafted between 1.06 and 1.07
The Texans QB situation should improve eventually. I just don't think Fuller is ever going to get enough targets to be more than a WR 2 in PPR format, He is worth a bit more in standard scoring leagues because of the big play potential, but I think there are a lot of WR who can do that similarly well as Fuller.
I see that Mike Clay has John Ross slotted just ahead of Fuller, so he must see them as pretty similarly valued. This is for standard scoring format. So Fuller would be a bit lower in a PPR league presumably.
According to DLF mock drafts Fuller is going with pick 80 overall. This slots him after Mixon but before Kamara as far as rookies go and Kamara is the 7th rookie overall, so according to this he is being drafted between 1.06 and 1.07
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't think either is DeSean Jackson, so both present WR2-WR4 value. He definitely has a chance to be better but I don't think it is anywhere near a lock. If presented a choice given the lack of upside I'd take the proven player with a defined role . Bloom says Fuller is Ross's floor but I don't think that is true.I think Dorsett has more talent than Fuller but wouldn't bet on Dorsett straight up. The knock on Fuller going in is size (no different than Ross) and hands. He did have too many drops last year (5 in 90 or so targets) but not a big enough number it affects his usage. Additionally, I feel more comfortable about Fuller's injury history. I could have a different view Thursday after he is picked but I would prefer Fuller now given most of the possible landing spots.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Price check on Kenneth Dixon? Another forum has a consensus value of a late first (10-12). That's madness, right? If drafted in this class, he's a 5th or 6th rounder lost in the shuffle with 10 other guys--many in better situations. This before getting popped for PEDs and losing the passing down work to Danny Woodhead.
ZWK
Footballguy
I'd put Dixon in the same tier as guys like Mack, Gallman, and Jamaal Williams. Late 2nd or so.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I own him in one league and was disappointed to see the Mike Williams pick. I thought Tyrell looked very good. I doubt he has any trade value now. I'd hold onto him in case Allen suffers another injury in which case he'll at least be startable.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I agree with the Dr., hes a firm hold. He is a solid asset still who's trade value has taken a perceived hit. Honestly, in a league that I didnt own him in, I would be inquiring about him, or trying to get him added to a deal on draft day as a 'throw in'. Allen is a beast but only when healthy. Mike Williams is talented, and will get some opportunities, but TW proved his worth last year, and the chemistry and trust he has built up with Rivers is worth something, IMO. Guy is 24 (might be 25 this year, not sure) great measurables and a decent amount of experience gained last year. Shown he is capable of being dynamic and can score. He is a solid buy low candidate.
squistion
Footballguy
You might get a 3rd for him, but I am not even sure of that. Definite hold if you have the roster space due to the injury concerns with Allen plus the fact that TW will be a free agent in 2018 IIRC.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
I had a sneaky feeling before the draft that they were going to take a pass catcher but I thought it would be later. I tried to trade Tyrell before all of this happened and got very little bites for 3rd round picks or something of the sort. I wanted a late 1st, now I have to wait and see what happens while he clogs up a roster spot. I might still move him for a 10 - 16 draft pick, but that's the minimum and after the Mike Williams pick, I doubt I get that.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I wouldn't buy for anything more than a late 2nd at this pointaaj1997 said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'll buy for a mid-to-late 2nd.
