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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
James Robinson for a late first doesn't appear to even start a conversation in non-ppr dynasty.
Boston
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think that makes sense though. He's not as young as Lamb/Metcalf and not as productive as Hopkins/Thomas/Adams.
He turns 27 in two weeks and has a career best finish of WR14 in ppg (WR9 overall). WR21 in PPG so far this year. That is just boring production for a 27 year old in the modern era.
ARob is the same age and has beaten Golladay's career best 3 times.
Given what we talked about on the prior page about the current overflow of great fantasy WRs, I can see why he's being overlooked. He's a year younger than guys like Lockett/Woods, with less production, for twice the cost.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I have Robinson in my only non-PPR league and wouldn't sell him for a late 1st.
Non-ppr is all about the RBs. That also makes late 1sts less valuable than a typical PPR league since 2nd tier WR prospects like Ruggs, Pittman, etc aren't as valuable there and you have to REALLY hit on a true stud (like Jefferson this year) to get much out of the pick.
I think Robinson is probably worth somewhere around a late 1st in PPR, maybe a little more. In non-PPR which both increases his value and decreases the value of the pick, I would pretty quickly reject it if that offer came my way, personally.
Non-ppr is all about the RBs. That also makes late 1sts less valuable than a typical PPR league since 2nd tier WR prospects like Ruggs, Pittman, etc aren't as valuable there and you have to REALLY hit on a true stud (like Jefferson this year) to get much out of the pick.
I think Robinson is probably worth somewhere around a late 1st in PPR, maybe a little more. In non-PPR which both increases his value and decreases the value of the pick, I would pretty quickly reject it if that offer came my way, personally.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
People say this a lot. I have not found it to be true. I think it's a variant of the Mandela Effect.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think he’s worth more than that in PPR leagues, even. At best you’re looking at RBs with 3rd round pedigree in a questionable landing spot in the later part of the first round of rookie drafts. We’ve been spoiled recently by guys like Hunt and Kamara, but they’re outliers. You’re lucky if your late first round RB ever has the opportunity that Robinson has today. Those who appear to on draft day (Montgomery comes to mind) go early/mid. You’re usually looking at Zack Moss types. I guess if you’re not at all sold on the talent, a late 1st makes sense. But draft pedigree should be all but moot by now. It’s clear that the NFL missed and Robinson would be drafted in a redo. Likely ahead of Moss, Dillon, and maybe even Akers, in my opinion.
Likewise, it's few and far between that undrafted rookie RBs who flash a bit sustain any form of long term value. I think Robinson has looked solid, but he's not special. I'm insta-trading Robinson for a late 1st in ppr leagues without giving it much consideration. Especially for a 2021 1st, as that WR class looks stacked once again.
JFS171
Footballguy
I think @Concept Coop and @FreeBaGeL are exactly right on this, and it’s a shift in my usual mindset as I typically lean on WRs and throwing spaghetti at RBs in my PPR dynasty leagues. That said, the WR advantage just doesn’t feel like it exists anymore, and with the depth of the position, nobody ever wants one in a trade - especially not for a RB.
This got me to thinking, what young-ish RB1 or RB2 types could you realistically acquire right now for a reasonable price. James Robinson has been discussed quite a bit, but he strikes me as one you may be able to acquire with a young upside WR. The other that jumped out at me is not a rookie, but is younger than Saquon, Chubb, Mixon, and Miles Sanders, and is only six months older than Josh Jacobs ... one Ronald Jones, who despite entering his third year in the NFL was mothballed year 1 and still just turned 23 in early August.
Everyone interpreted Tampa’s moves this offseason as an indictment of Jones - as looking to replace Jones, though I argued in his thread at the time they may simply be a reflection of the depth they felt they lacked. They drafted Vaughn (who’s older than Jones by three months) to upgrade Ogunbowale who served as their third down back in 2019 (and was summarily cut this year). They then realized how far behind he was (partially due to COVID) and signed McCoy. They then realized he was basically washed and signed Fournette as cheap insurance.
At this point, I can’t see them taking RB1 duties away from Jones with how he’s playing. It feels like they’d lose the locker room given his production - play the best players after all. At the same time, the narrative that Arians will screw with him and/or Fournette will take his job is making him available and/or cheaper than he should be.
Again, Jones was basically mothballed as a rookie, just turned 23, and essentially is entering his second season and playing like a stud RB1 over the past month. How much would that player typically cost? Far more than it takes to acquire Jones right now.
This got me to thinking, what young-ish RB1 or RB2 types could you realistically acquire right now for a reasonable price. James Robinson has been discussed quite a bit, but he strikes me as one you may be able to acquire with a young upside WR. The other that jumped out at me is not a rookie, but is younger than Saquon, Chubb, Mixon, and Miles Sanders, and is only six months older than Josh Jacobs ... one Ronald Jones, who despite entering his third year in the NFL was mothballed year 1 and still just turned 23 in early August.
Everyone interpreted Tampa’s moves this offseason as an indictment of Jones - as looking to replace Jones, though I argued in his thread at the time they may simply be a reflection of the depth they felt they lacked. They drafted Vaughn (who’s older than Jones by three months) to upgrade Ogunbowale who served as their third down back in 2019 (and was summarily cut this year). They then realized how far behind he was (partially due to COVID) and signed McCoy. They then realized he was basically washed and signed Fournette as cheap insurance.
At this point, I can’t see them taking RB1 duties away from Jones with how he’s playing. It feels like they’d lose the locker room given his production - play the best players after all. At the same time, the narrative that Arians will screw with him and/or Fournette will take his job is making him available and/or cheaper than he should be.
Again, Jones was basically mothballed as a rookie, just turned 23, and essentially is entering his second season and playing like a stud RB1 over the past month. How much would that player typically cost? Far more than it takes to acquire Jones right now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He’s the only undrafted rookie RB In history to produce this much this early. The sample is one. I don’t see value in correlating by UDFA status anymore. It won’t play a role in him keeping or losing the job, which I think he is on his way to securing for the foreseeable future. None of the rookies have looked special, but Robinson has looked better than all of them, with the exception of CEH. He hasn’t just flashed a bit, he’s been one of the better backs in the league. If your only exposure and context was watching the 2020 season, would anyone say Zeke is a better football player than James Robinson, for example?
JFS171
Footballguy
Additionally, go look at his thread for the combine metrics I posted from him. Other than his 40-time, everything jumped off the page. Let’s not forget it was a COVID year where he didn’t get to run a pro day 40-time (and improve on his 4.65, which isn’t really problematic anyway) or have any in-person team visits to wow a team and become a 4th rounder.
If he had Josh Kelley’s draft slot, would anyone be doubting this? I kinda don’t think so.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I think my biggest problem with Robinson is that he's a Jaguar.
Good talk on the lower tier RBs...
I've sold Robinson for a later 1st, and have him in my weekly lineup for contending teams. I have no problem turning a quick profit. And almost had one owner accept a straight Robinson for Akers trade. Robinson has a high floor in PPR. I don't know what kind of competition or coaching staff he will have in 2021, but he's making a case for Jax to spend resources elsewhere. I'd buy for a late first if i was a contender, maybe high second if not if i had lots of draft capital (down on RBs in 2021, but WRs, TEs and QBs will fall to the 2nd and 3rd next year)
I sold Montgomery early this year in a rebuild (late 1st and 2nd), and targeted him in a couple leagues when I lost McCaffrey. Had to "settle" for Jones for a devy depleted 1st round rookie pick. Liking that trade since he has performed well and is still young enough to get better.
I've sold Robinson for a later 1st, and have him in my weekly lineup for contending teams. I have no problem turning a quick profit. And almost had one owner accept a straight Robinson for Akers trade. Robinson has a high floor in PPR. I don't know what kind of competition or coaching staff he will have in 2021, but he's making a case for Jax to spend resources elsewhere. I'd buy for a late first if i was a contender, maybe high second if not if i had lots of draft capital (down on RBs in 2021, but WRs, TEs and QBs will fall to the 2nd and 3rd next year)
I sold Montgomery early this year in a rebuild (late 1st and 2nd), and targeted him in a couple leagues when I lost McCaffrey. Had to "settle" for Jones for a devy depleted 1st round rookie pick. Liking that trade since he has performed well and is still young enough to get better.
This is the beauty of dynasty leagues. Odds are one of us is going to be likely very clearly correct. If Robinson maintains his role as feature back for a few years, he’s easily worth a late 1st. If he doesn’t, his value most definitely isn’t a 1st. Consider me as betting on the latter. Additionally, IMO despite solid production to date, draft pedigree absolutely plays a role in sustainability of value in dynasty leagues. If Robinson and Swift both blow out their ACLs this week and you don’t think their draft pedigree and the investment of the 35th overall pick vs UDFA plays any role in future opportunities, we’d have to disagree.
Will be fun to watch. Great discussion.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If there isn't disagreement, there are fewer trades.
Apple Juice
Footballguy
They've been just about as bad as can be and he's still producing. Not sure what could happen that would make his situation worse other than losing lineman to injury or free agency.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
How long is a flash?
We're half way through the fantasy season and James Robinson is RB7, currently averaging 17 ppg. And he's doing it with pretty good efficiency metrics too, on a team that everyone said a RB couldn't do that on when top 5 pick Leonard Fournette was slamming into the back of his linemen for 3 years.
So who are these examples, and how long were their flashes? I couldn't find a single undrafted rookie RB that averaged 15ppg or more in their first 6 games (it's possible I'm missing someone as my query options are somewhat limited). Robinson is averaging 17.
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
Easily Mims. Would expect their values to head in opposite directions next year. Ekeler returns from injury, and Mims likely gets a generational QB talent in Lawrence.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t know if we disagree.
Draft capital is most valuable to us an indicator of how the NFL viewed the player at the time they were drafted. There is more guess work involved with someone like Robinson, as we don’t have that. We can safely assume he’d be drafted, I think, but we don’t know where like we do with Swift. So draft capital is certainly a valuable datapoint for us this early in a player’s career, but only in the abstract. I don’t think an ACL tear would have been more damning for Arian Foster 7 weeks into his breakout season than it would have for Ben Tate.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Robinson is eighth in points for the season but 13th the last three weeks (although the difference from 6 to 13 is admittedly small) so he's trending downward. The last part is what makes some jumpy.
waiver wire
Footballguy
14 owner dynasty idp superflex te premium league
35 man roster
start 7 with 2 flex
1 -2 qb , 1-3 rb ,3-5 wr , 1-2 te , 1k
looking for an outside perspective on player value
14 Aaron Rodgers 128.85 pts 25.770 ppg
26 Baker Mayfield 88.95 pts 14.82511.65 ppg
what is the draft pick difference between those 2 players
I'm having problems with coming up with a value
its the age old dilemma : youth and possible high expectations VS age (2-3 good years left) and consistent production
the top 5 qb in the league at this time
1.Murray, Kyler ARI QB 180.10 pts 30.017 ppg
2.Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB 176.85 pts 29.475 ppg
3.Allen, Josh BUF QB 173.30 pts 28.883 ppg
4.Wilson, Russell SEA QB 166.05 pts 33.210 ppg
5.Prescott, Dak DAL QB 165.25 pts 33.050 ppg
35 man roster
start 7 with 2 flex
1 -2 qb , 1-3 rb ,3-5 wr , 1-2 te , 1k
looking for an outside perspective on player value
14 Aaron Rodgers 128.85 pts 25.770 ppg
26 Baker Mayfield 88.95 pts 14.82511.65 ppg
what is the draft pick difference between those 2 players
I'm having problems with coming up with a value
its the age old dilemma : youth and possible high expectations VS age (2-3 good years left) and consistent production
the top 5 qb in the league at this time
1.Murray, Kyler ARI QB 180.10 pts 30.017 ppg
2.Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB 176.85 pts 29.475 ppg
3.Allen, Josh BUF QB 173.30 pts 28.883 ppg
4.Wilson, Russell SEA QB 166.05 pts 33.210 ppg
5.Prescott, Dak DAL QB 165.25 pts 33.050 ppg
And his last 5 (of 6) games have included 4 of the worst 7 teams in the league against the rush, with the fifth being against the Lions (14th worst).
rockaction
Footballguy
Just offered Zeke for a combination of Aaron Jones/Justin Jefferson or Kareem Hunt/Justin Jefferson/1st rounder and was pretty much rejected out of hand because the owner didn't want to part with receiver a in start-nine offense (1-5 RB, 2-5 WR, 1-5 TE, 1 QB). Zeke's value is not what it once was.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
He’s looked pretty average this year. He’s not the same player he was as a rookie. Signing him to that massive contract was a huge mistake and it’s going to look worse and worse until they cut him in a couple years.
rockaction
Footballguy
He looked, to me, better than he did last year. His line is just in shambles. I totally agree with what you're saying about not the same as a rookie or that contract. I happened to inherit him on a dynasty team and I'm sort of looking to get out from under it while it still has albatross-looking value.
northern exposure
Footballguy
I was going to bring up Arian Foster. But, when I looked up his stats, I found he played 6 games his 1st NFL season and broke out in his first full (16 game) season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is an interesting idea. Do you have access to start up ADP data? I suppose the mizelle data could be used for this. I noticed that goes several years back last time I looked at it. Yeah 2013 so we could compare the 2014 ADPs to 2020 for WR using this.
As someone who tries to do rankings I think at least part of the reluctance to change rankings mid seasons is that there is actually quite a bit of research and work that goes into those rankings that is just hard to do on a weekly basis and probably not necessary as these things are so fluid one week should not make a huge difference. I usually do look at things in 4 week frames. So a new ranking after 4 weeks would make some sense I guess. Perhaps my process for ranking isn't easy enough for that to be practical.
I certainly do react to things in real time as you are talking about. I had Claypool ranked really low going into the season and my view on him has completely changed now. There is a lot of merit to what you and Connskins are talking about.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This season scoring is up across the board and most of it is going to the WR position. So the tide is lifting all boats. More viable choices at WR because of that right now.
If your opponents are savvy enough they should be able to find match ups that mitigate your advantage somewhat. That doesn't mean that the players they are starting that week are more valuable than your WR every week.
The scarcity issue has always been there. Not many teams have more than two or so viable RB starters so anyone trading away a RB needs to have 4 or more good ones or they are hurting their starting line up. That said if you make a strong enough offer you should be able to get a top RB if you are willing to give up Hopkins or Hill for one.
This sounds like something I have been saying for years except I would never say to put all of your capital into a certain position of players. Its still BPA.
When I have 6 or more good WR it isn't really hurting me to give up one of my best ones for a RB or draft picks to be used on a RB next year if I need one is the point of this.
Passing up a good player for a meh one is always a bad idea. Jefferson was a 1st round pick, Vaughn was a 3rd round RB with a questionable starter already on the team.
I have traded top RB for top WR before. Even when I don't necessarily need the WR but the trade allows me to upgrade.
I think the key to roster management is being proactive. Its always harder to make trades if your team is in a pickle of your own making. Its all about timing.
Dynasty owners are a pita to trade with. No doubt about that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well Aaron Jones has outperformed him for the last two seasons and (I think) is younger - but agree Zeke's trade value is not the same. I've had trouble trying to find anyone that wants to give fair value.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Agreed...they are end-of-bench cross your fingers guys...they would barely hold any value to me as far as a deal I was doing.
Boston
Footballguy
Pretty obvious there are is a ton of young high-end talent at the WR position with another solid rookie crop coming this year...on the flip-side there seems to be a lot questions creeping up at the QB position:
Nearing the end-Brees, Brady, Big Ben, Rivers
Still questions about future-Jimmy G, Bridgewater
Change possibly coming-Darnold, Newton, Minshew, Foles
Probably safe but a little rocky right now-Mayfield, Lock, Cousins
Change definitely coming-WFT
Not looking to quibble about these categories because I am sure we can debate a few of them...just curious how Dynasty Owners are factoring in the QB position when evaluating WRs and how much it influences them when choosing between two WRs that are about even...
Nearing the end-Brees, Brady, Big Ben, Rivers
Still questions about future-Jimmy G, Bridgewater
Change possibly coming-Darnold, Newton, Minshew, Foles
Probably safe but a little rocky right now-Mayfield, Lock, Cousins
Change definitely coming-WFT
Not looking to quibble about these categories because I am sure we can debate a few of them...just curious how Dynasty Owners are factoring in the QB position when evaluating WRs and how much it influences them when choosing between two WRs that are about even...
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Mark Football
Footballguy
1QB? I would consider doing that.hispeedthinmint said:
Mark Football
Footballguy
jtd13
Footballguy
I think he's already the favorite for WR1 in the offseason. 1.01 overall? I have trouble seeing that. There are just so many startable WRs that I think most will prioritize elite RBs.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I agree on the plethora of WRs but I'm not sure there is going to be a clear cut RB to take at the top. The current elite crop are hitting the age where dynasty owners start to lose interest that early, and the really young guys haven't played well enough to go that early.
I could definitely see DK going over Zeke who will be 26 by then, Saquon, Dalvin, CEH, and JT. That leaves CMC as the real major competition for 1.01 but he'll be 25 and if they reduce his touches the back half of this year with Mike Davis looking like a guy plenty capable of getting 30% of the touches instead of 5% then that could really put the kabosh on the huge scoring advantage he was offering the last couple years.
Not saying it will for sure happen, but there is a pretty reasonable path to it. In established leagues I don't think people would trade those RBs straight up for him but things are different in startup drafts where people are working from a blank slate and think they'll have plenty of time to take care of RB needs throughout the draft.
Maybe I’m just a bit slow to catch on but this seems crazy to me. Even WR1 does.
To me, he’s in a fairly big group of young, high upside WRs who are already producing. That’s great, but I don’t see what he’s done to get all this WR1 hype this last couple of weeks. He’s been very good but so have plenty of other guys. He’s also only caught more than 4 passes in one game this year. That’s a bit shaky to me.
I do understand ranking him over a couple of those slightly older guys now because age is such a huge factor for market value but it’s getting crazy IMO. Dynasty is surprisingly reactionary sometimes.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He's WR3 in PPG at age 22 and is tied to one of the league's best quarterbacks for likely the majority of his career.
And of course he has that salivating size/speed combo that everyone always craves. Usually those guys end up being complete trash that never do anything (DGB, St Brown, etc) or Hall of fame studs that are top 3 startup picks for half a dozen years (Moss, Megatron). DK certainly doesn't look like he falls into the former category.
Unless he has a huge regression the rest of this season there will likely be no reasonable price you can pay to acquire him next offseason.
As to the last comment about people being reactionary, I have talked about that a lot, I think as recently as just a few pages back. Simply put, I find most dynasty owners to be UNDERreactionary. At this time last year people were still asking for a 1st on top of OBJ to get Tyreek Hill, and people wanted 2-3 1sts on top of Aaron Jones to get JuJu even though the writing was on the wall.
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