RC94
Footballguy
He's 26 years old. His value isn't going to crater due to age this offseason or next season.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
I was expanding on Tangfoot's point that you asked about when he said "next season" and "begin" to crater. Because late next season he'll be 28 and that's when people out of contention and/or looking to confirm their bias will talk themselves into the age narrative. And once that happens it goes fast.
northern exposure
Footballguy
Maybe in TE premium, but that team is going to steadily move targets away from the TE as their WRs get healthy and grow into their roles. He’s been all over the place in terms of both targets and production this season, I think he will settle into a mid/late TE1 valuation.
Not worth a high 1st to me, I would rather try to bet on the next Waller at a discount
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Except they kind of do when attempting to make correlations like this. Because in my example it's possible that Tom, Jerry, Bonnie, and Clyde all prefer Evans to Lamb and their prior poll results for based on entirely unrelated reasons - Tom and Jerry because they like Evans plenty but are super high on Moore and Bonnie and Clyde because preferring Lamb is more about that they hate Moore so that one player's divisiveness (Moore's) creates a massive logical fallacy. With more than 50% again voting in the second poll it's entirely possible that those 800 extra voters that were so down on Moore would also have preferred Evans and now you wouldn't be tempted to come to the same conclusion.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t know if I’m being trolled or not. G’night everyone. It was fun.
ZWK
Footballguy
Alright, you guys got me to update my WR rankings. Here they are. My top 12:
Michael Thomas
Calvin Ridley
D.K. Metcalf
CeeDee Lamb
Tyreek Hill
Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins
Amari Cooper
Terry McLaurin
Chris Godwin
D.J. Moore
Mike Evans
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
JFS171
Footballguy
You’re not being trolled - I just think you’re all talking past one another. Applying the transitive property in pure mathematics makes sense (if I’m correctly recalling my HS math which I’ve long forgotten). However, this isn’t pure mathematics with fixed variables A, B, and C. There’s much more subjectivity to this, which lands it more in philosophy than mathematics.
You are both right, truthfully. You can make a transitive argument directionally, IMO, but it’s not necessarily fact because that direct question was never posed. I think the likeliest answer is somewhere in between. Overall the market may prefer Lamb to Moore and may prefer Moore to Evans, but without the data from asking the direct question, maybe Evans to Lamb is closer than Evans to Moore?
The fruit example presented earlier is the best way to think of it. All fruits (Bananas, Apples, oranges) just like all WRs (Lamb, Moore, Evans), but we can’t definitively conclude that Bananas are preferred to Apples if we only know that they’re preferred to Oranges and Oranges are preferred to Apples, unless we have the direct comparison. Even then you get into questions of who comprised the sample - was it all the same people? Do they own these players? Etc.
Overall, you’re saying you’re willing to pay Evans and a late 1 for Lamb. I think others are saying you may not need to even if you personally value it that way.
I think he's approaching the point where his value starts to split between win-now vs rebuilding teams. He's just started his second contract and he's coming off of two consecutive seasons of very high volume (though his usage is a bit unique in that he had 219 carries in 2018 and 287 in 2019, so not the 300+ carries between the tackles that wears down so many RBs). He takes care of himself a la Tomlinson and his receiving role will probably extend his value. But in the one league where I have him, I'm in a closing window and will need to consider rebuilding if I can't contend this year. In that scenario, I am probably looking to trade him as the centerpiece in a rebuild. If I was looking at a win-now window over the next 2-3 years, then I think riding him out makes a lot of sense, mainly because worst case he'll probably retain a high floor with his elite receiving skills.
JFS171
Footballguy
In my experience the year the player turns 30 is the year they fall off from the market’s perception. Diggs turning 27 at the end of November still leaves 2021-2022 as prime seasons IMO (his 27-28, and 28-29 seasons). After that, or possibly during that 2022 season, owners probably need to decide whether they’re holding til the end (as his value to contenders is probably never equaled in trade value) or getting out before the season where he turns 30.
My concerns with Diggs are much less about his age and more about his past propensity to tweak something and not be the same guy playing through it. So to some extent I do see this as a sell window.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Good topic and nice list.Concept Coop said:
- I'd love to buy Gibson but doesn't seem like anyone is selling. I may try and "overpay" in one league though just because he's fun to watch and looks elite to me.
- I'm buying Ronald Jones (even as a former hater). I was desperate for RB2 help in one league a few weeks back and traded Slayton and Edmunds (to Drake owner) for Jones and Perriman and have been pleased despite most people telling me it was a loss at the time. He looks to have improved on his vision and power.
- Dionte Johnson looks like a top 12 WR to me. I already own him in 2 of 5 leagues but the time to buy at a reasonable price is coming to an end.
-
- Justin Herbert has impressed the hell out of me. I know QBs are easy to come by in start 1QB leagues but I'm very interested in trying to acquire him.
- I just sold Kelley for a early/mid second after Ekeler went down. He looks ok but nothing special and Ekeler will be back. I'll take a profit.
- I'm looking to move Gaskin before he gets exposed. I think he's looked good but can't see him as a long term option there.
- I just moved Fournette for a mid/late second before the bottom completely falls off.
- It's too early to write off Ruggs but if I owned him and could recover the cost I would. I think being banged up often in addition to being used more of a specialist is his future.
JFS171
Footballguy
While I’ve not personally checked on his value, I really wonder if owners of Metcalf in generic dynasty leagues realize they have a top-5 WR on their hands. I don’t think Lamb owners do just yet. I should clarify that I think the frequent readers of this forum are likely significantly more savvy than your standard dynasty league.
I kind of wonder if you could get Metcalf + or Lamb + for Tyreek, for example.
Boston
Footballguy
The reason I would say they do is he has produced at a very high level so far this season after having a big time rookie year...combine that with a fantastic QB in his prime (who is now being unleashed) and I gotta believe his Dynasty Owners are very aware what they have on their hands.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Johnson is a great call. I think he should be closer to Juju. If Juju doesn’t re-sign, they could swap places in rankings, depending on the landing spot.
I tried to buy Herbert recently and was essentially told I’d have to pay SF prices in a start 1 league. I agree he’s looked great.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
To the extent that the two samples are representative subsets of the whole, it’s reasonable to conclude that if A>B and B>C that A>C. I know it’s not perfect, which is why I don’t understand the technical arguments against it being perfect. If I asked Ryan to post a direct comparison and asked them both to bet money on a winner, they would act on the data I provided and pick Lamb. It would be silly not to.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I am going to agree that this topic works best with discussion like this. I was tremendously disappointed that it basically turned into an AC forum for dynasty leagues and tried to fight against it at first but was shouted down. I hope it doesn't quickly turn back that way but given certain posters I'm not that hopeful.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I like this call as well. I was a huge fan of him as a prospect. It's frustrating to seem him showcase what he can do only to get back to being buried on the bench. He's the second best WR on that team imo.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Like Concept mentioned it isn't perfect but we can make an extremely confident projection here. We are talking about huge margins in polls with thousands of responses. If McDowell had included a poll with Lamb/Evans in that same post I can say with EXTREME confidence that Lamb likely would have run away with it. Sure it's no guarantee but I'd put a lot of money on that and I doubt the other side would do the same against it.
He's a middling (to high) WR2 on an offense that wants to run and play defense, and he'll be 28 before the end of the 2021 season.
He's rapidly approaching untradeable in dynasty, so if you want to receive the highest possible value in trade for him heed my advice above.
If you are a contending team that feels like he will be a significant point producer for your lineup, I understand wanting to ride out the rest of his career until his trade value approaches zero.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If you think he's going to remain a middle WR1 by the end of this season, I'm going to respectfully disagree.
And if you think you are ever going to receive middle WR1 trade value for him, you better be trading with the country bumpkin.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was talking about the part where the Bills are a "run first" defensive team. Their defense is terrible and they've been one of the more wide-open passing attacks in the league.
I am actually looking to aquire Akers if his owners are spooked. I am actively selling my Henderson shares where I can.Concept Coop said:
My buys: Shenault, Reagor (if you can get a bit of an injury discount), Parris, , Gallup, Edwards, Jeudy (especially if the offense continues to struggle), Jarwin (TE premium leagues only), Swift
Sells: Crowder, Preston, Fuller, Waller, Lamar, Singletary
By design or by necessity? What do you think their offense wants to do going forward? Kyle Allen has made tremendous strides this year, but I think he's stuck in the role that Russ was in for a long time.
Perhaps that changes based on the performances he's putting up, but I still see that team as I described them above.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I believe it's by design. Most of the Bills' fans on this board said all offseason the the Bills would be opening up their offense this season in part to see if Allen was their future and trading for Diggs seems to back that up.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I think this is one of the biggest stories of the season so far. What the Bills are doing. Sure seems deliberate and that it is working.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Henderson should net you a 2nd as long as he doesn't #### the bed again this week (and Akers is out).
I'm not sure you can get Akers off of his owners for less than a late-1st, but a different player/2nd would probably work. That one is really situational, it would have to be a trade with a team that is contending and needs RB help.
JFS171
Footballguy
Complete rebuild in my PPR that drafted Akers at 1.09 (Superflex) said he wouldn’t sell for less than he paid and would be looking for a profit if he moved him at all.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is true and something to be aware of as far as the perceived value for Diggs (or other quality player reaching their age apex).
However we know that WR performance plateaus at age 28 to age 32 so you should still get 4 more years of Diggs at his peak performance before a drop off due to age will happen.
I buy these proven players at this point of their careers if I can get that discount from the folks looking for exit value. Depends on the player. Diggs is awesome.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Without knowing that the population samples are related this is false. 800 more people responded in one poll than another. 1300 vs. 2100 is not a representative data set. Last I'll say on this topic, it's bad logic and use of statistics to make this correlation.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Both samples are representative subsets of the market, the whole, not each other. That sentence doesn’t even make sense.
JFS171
Footballguy
I find that pretty interesting as it seems a lot of his owners are more than willing to move him given what they perceive to be a spike in value while Moss was out. What happens when Moss returns?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FWIW he just turned 28 a few weeks ago.
I am a buyer in TE Premium mainly because the elite TEs right now are so far ahead of everyone else that it's a huge disadvantage not to have one.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I meant to say they are not comparable because they are different. If you prefer beer to wine and your wife prefers wine to scotch that does not mean you both prefer beer to scotch. Maybe you just hate wine and your wife loves it to death but you both have scotch over beer. Unless you know those populations are very closely related (which isn't even possible with the size variation) then you cannot reliably correlate their results.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's where the size of the offense comes in. Even if Moss gets a share there's enough to go around. I also don't think Moss is much threat to Singletary's alpha role as he's not nearly as talented.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think this is the case anymore. I'd be happy leaving a startup with 9 different guys as my TE1. Jonnu, Hock, Fant, Goedert, Ertz and Waller, in addition to the big 3. I wouldn't feel great about Higbee, Gesicki, Hurst, Engram, Henry, Hooper, Shultz or Tonyan, but there are plenty of baseline option available. A great rookie class incoming, too.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's tough for me to get a read on all of those guys because some like Jonnu/Goedert have only played 1 or 2 games this year. The other guys though Waller is outscoring Hock by 5ppg and Ertz by 6ppg in TE Premium. That would be like if you replaced the TE spot with an extra flex spot and you were starting Tyreek Hill there instead of Cole Beasely. It's a pretty major advantage imo.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
That's fair. I'm not currently playing TE premium, for the record, so I shouldn't speak too confidently here. But I think TE is deeper than it's been in a long time. It's a really fun group.
jeter23
Footballguy
Good discussion here and I agree with both sides. Those Twitter polls are certainly flawed in multiple ways but I also think they have some value for savvy dynasty owners. Dismissing them as recency bias is silly because that is something we should be acting on in our own leagues.
Also, I acknowledge the A>B and B>C so A>C is not perfect but it gives us a rough estimate of what the community thinks at that snapshot in time.
Oh, and just for you guys...
https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/1315173631278952450?s=20
Also, I acknowledge the A>B and B>C so A>C is not perfect but it gives us a rough estimate of what the community thinks at that snapshot in time.
Oh, and just for you guys...
https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/1315173631278952450?s=20
rockaction
Footballguy
Anyone have a thought about what Ertz is worth, generally, and especially for the long term? Does anyone watching have any qualms with his speed or age?
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I-ROK
Footballguy
Why do you guys do when you get an offer like this- I don’t really need a tight end. I have four TEs: Hockenson, Engram, Sample, Trautman. I was offered Hunter Henry for my 2022 2nd. Great value for me, obviously, but I’m not sure about Henry and not sure if this even makes sense as I’m not really a buyer for Henry
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I-ROK
Footballguy
That was my thought as well. I don’t particularly like giving up a 2022 pick but I don’t think I can pass up the value. And the depth. Engram looks like his rookie year was an anomaly and I am fairly unproven behind Hock (and even Hock)
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The polls were in the same post I believe so there is likely a ton of overlap in the voters, even if it obviously isn't 1:1.Hankmoody said:
The population samples are obviously related because they're all fantasy football players who follow McDowell on Twitter, who likely saw the two polls at the same time.
But even if we assumed every responder was different they are samples meant to represent the same population and they are each statistically significant sample sizes.
I mean this is basically the methodology used by the FDA to select the standard of care for treating Covid. Each drug wasn't tested against the same sample of people. There were different samples for each drug and then they were then compared to each other to select a standard of care. And those were with only a few hundred people in the sample generally, not thousands. Your standards for projecting whether FF owners generally prefer Lamb to Evans are stricter than the FDA's standards for selecting a drug to give to millions of people with hundreds of thousands of people's life on the line.
In other news, the least surprising poll results ever award goes to...
Which WR do you prefer in a dynasty league, CeeDee Lamb vs. Mike Evans
Totally shocking and unpredictable results.
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frae
Footballguy
If you have Dak and you are playing to win are you selling him a little cheaper or selling him as if he wasn't hurt assuming a rebuilder wants him. The big question will be does he come back at 100% and there is no way to know that so if other owners won't pay full price and you have a window to win do you move him for less? Just curious how people are valuing Dak today.
