Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Lawrence is not hyped. He's performed like a pro in just about every college game he's played in...and he's gotten better along the way.
If he fails, nobody will have seen it coming. Nobody.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
If he fails, nobody will have seen it coming. Nobody.
Boston
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I get where youre coming from because almost every year a QB is taken #1. There's really no way to differentiate between them despite some clearly being better than others.
But then again there's no way differentiate them. With what we know about the inaccuracy of scouting, I find it inconceivable to count on any rookie to outperform the top qbs out there right now. Maybe that's just me.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
@Concept Coop used the word 'hype' to begin with. You said well it's not 'hype' because everybody thinks he's going to be good. Pretty clearly semantics right?I guess I don't know WHAT you're trying to say.
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I don’t like paying a first for Lawrence. The margin for error on return is so low in a 1QB league. He could ‘succeed’ and be in the muck of replaceable QB starters in the low QB1- early QB2. You are really looking for top 5 fantasy production. In a situation that will likely highly variable in the outset with new coaches/scheme/players.
You draft an RB and top 24 production becomes an asset, or a WR and top 36 becomes an asset. The math points you where to bet.
Lawrence will be good, but not sure I think he is a better prospect than Watson other than height. Watson went late 2nd
You draft an RB and top 24 production becomes an asset, or a WR and top 36 becomes an asset. The math points you where to bet.
Lawrence will be good, but not sure I think he is a better prospect than Watson other than height. Watson went late 2nd
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I guess I do.
"Hyped" typically means exaggerated.
In the case of athletes, that normally means that the on field performance has still left lingering questions. There is very little question when it comes to Lawrence. He's the most sure thing at the position since at least Andrew Luck.
But if you need me to say that's just my opinion, well, that's just my opinion.
rockaction
Footballguy
You forgot to say "man" at the end of "just my opinion." We'll forgive you this time.
I have the 4th and 5th in my league. I have Mahomes. I also have three 2nds. I am sorely tempted to take Lawrence, but won't in the end. I just don't see the fourth and fifth guys as being as sure a thing as Lawrence. I've watched the highlights of the top-rated guys according to DLF, too. Not seeing some of the love for 5'9" receivers and the like.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Some people play in super flex or 2 QB leagues and that changes the dynamic of the value dramatically.
In general I do not want to use 1st round picks on the QB position in start one leagues unless I think that player is going to be special in some way, like Lamar Jackson, or I think that player will be a good QB for a long time.
Its not easy to evaluate the QB position. Even the professionals get this wrong a lot. For example the Bears taking Trubisky ahead of Watson. You also had Mahomes in that draft along with Fournette, CMC, Cook, Joe Mixon, Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Aaron Jones, 3 1st round TE and some WR pushing Watsons spot down and he was under valued by the consensus all along. That doesn't mean he is the same player as Lawrence or that he will be selected this late in 2021 rookie drafts.
I wouldn't expect him to go before pick 9 in a rookie draft but I have seen some guys reach if they really like the QB and have a need. A lot of the time where the first QB gets picked tells you where the tier of value at other positions has ended. I am going to guess Lawrence ends up being picked at 10-12 as I don't think there are enough stars to push him down further than that, but it would be pretty cool if Im wrong.
In general I do not want to use 1st round picks on the QB position in start one leagues unless I think that player is going to be special in some way, like Lamar Jackson, or I think that player will be a good QB for a long time.
Its not easy to evaluate the QB position. Even the professionals get this wrong a lot. For example the Bears taking Trubisky ahead of Watson. You also had Mahomes in that draft along with Fournette, CMC, Cook, Joe Mixon, Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Aaron Jones, 3 1st round TE and some WR pushing Watsons spot down and he was under valued by the consensus all along. That doesn't mean he is the same player as Lawrence or that he will be selected this late in 2021 rookie drafts.
I wouldn't expect him to go before pick 9 in a rookie draft but I have seen some guys reach if they really like the QB and have a need. A lot of the time where the first QB gets picked tells you where the tier of value at other positions has ended. I am going to guess Lawrence ends up being picked at 10-12 as I don't think there are enough stars to push him down further than that, but it would be pretty cool if Im wrong.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, DLF did an early rookie draft and Lawrence and Fields were the first off the board in the draft.
I can only assume they were drafting Superflex, as they never specified. Sort of an oversight to publish without specifying.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I misuse words all the time without realizing it. Don’t fight on my account.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Looking at Golladay as a potential buy low. What's a realistic price? Maybe moreso - where does he rank among guys like Chark and Ruggs? Still well ahead?
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Well he was pretty overvalued beforehand based off production. He's already 27 and has two 1,000 yard season. Robert Woods, 28, also has about the same yards/game the last three seasons but Golladay is still more regarded. Dude is valued about as much as Allen Robinson, 27, who has better a history of production in much worse circumstances.
Kenny G's price still has some coming down for me to call him a buy low.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Gase is so dumb. I feel sorry for whichever stupid team hires him as their OC after he gets fired.
It really grinds my gears how these morons keep getting hired and fired and re-hired and then re-fired when they should be working middle-management at some bank or pumping gas. Must be white privilege.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Is Golladay + a late 2021 1st too much or not enough to give for Zeke in dynasty PPR?
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Competing owner looking to upgrade at TE. I have George Kittle who's no good to him but I also have Logan Thomas. What's his value? A late third? A late third and a first round pick swap? More?
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
sheerterror
Footballguy
Sounds even on paper, rosters notwithstanding - but not sure if Zeke is starting to get cooked or its a perfect storm with all the injuries on that offense.Helaire-ious said:
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
He is currently TE 8 in PPR scoring. To me that seems worth more than a 3rd round pick.Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
He is 29 years old though. So that should be some form of a discount.
I guess I would try for a 2nd round pick here as the base value. If you can do things like swap picks to get to that value go for it.
You could sell him for a 3rd round pick I suppose but I might rather just keep him over that.
kutta
Footballguy
I’m probably in the minority, but I wouldn’t give Golladay straight up for Zeke. Golladay was a top 10 WR last year, and he still has a lot of good years left.Helaire-ious said:
It feels to me that Zeke is going downhill fast. We can blame it on no Dak, but honestly, Pollard looks better than Zeke a lot of the time.
I’m not certain Zeke is going to be “the man” again. I’m pretty certain Golladay will be.
zamboni
Footballguy
Not a value question per se, but more of a situation gauge.
Thoughts on the San Francisco RB situation next year?
Coleman and McKinnon are UFAs and out of the picture anyway for the most part. That may leave the oft-injured Mostert and Wilson as the main guys unless another body or two are brought in via FA or the draft.
With the injury situations and Shanahan's RBBC propensity, just wondering if either of those two can be had for cheap.
Thoughts on the San Francisco RB situation next year?
Coleman and McKinnon are UFAs and out of the picture anyway for the most part. That may leave the oft-injured Mostert and Wilson as the main guys unless another body or two are brought in via FA or the draft.
With the injury situations and Shanahan's RBBC propensity, just wondering if either of those two can be had for cheap.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Mostert and WIlson are worth having sure. Not sure what the price for them is right now.
There will likely be another RB maybe 2 in the mix next season as well though. I do think eventually a RB will distance themselves from the pack, but I think that guy is just as likely to be one not on the team right now as it being one of those two.
If SF actually uses a high draft pick on a RB that would be different, seems unlikely to me that they will do that though. QB and DB have to be the priorities for them I would think right now.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Any Lamar Jackson trades lately in start 1 QB leagues? I want off the traiin
rockaction
Footballguy
You think you can/you think you can.
Just looked at DLF's Trade Finder for you. He went for Sanders and a first in one league (overpay for him, IMO), straight up for Rodgers in another (underpaid for him, IMO), and one for a package of players including Dak and Joey Bosa in another. Burrow and Pittman went for him and A.J. Green in another back in Nov.
Other than that, not much in twelve-team start one leagues.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
The only deal there I think is remotely ok is the Sanders deal. I assume that guy had another quality QB. I need a QB in return as my others are Cousins & Tua
kutta
Footballguy
Admittedly I’ve had a LOT to drink tonight. But this doesn’t make sense to me.
I’m going to have another drink and hope this clears up
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I could be wrong kutta but I think he is saying that he would want more than that to trade away Elliot but that he wouldn't offer as much for Elliot as the Golladay + 1st round pick.
So a classic example of having a double standard and not treating others the way you would like to be treated. Happens all the time.
So a classic example of having a double standard and not treating others the way you would like to be treated. Happens all the time.
kutta
Footballguy
OK. I’m sober now. And it still doesn’t make sense.
He’s saying he wouldn’t offer Golladay and a first for Zeke. So if he has Golladay and a first, he’d keep them over Zeke. But then says he wouldn’t give up Zeke for that.
I still don’t get it.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
I think we have all learned that Zeke is not worth Golladay & a 1st, but also is worth Golladay & a 1st. 
I wonder what type of WR would be the right value with that 1st then....
I wonder what type of WR would be the right value with that 1st then....
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I am likely reading it wrong somehow also.
I will let him answer.
FWIW I think Elliot is worth more than Golladay and a 1st round pick.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Mouth breathing McCarthy is staying in Dallas from what I heard. So if I'm trading Golladay for Zeke, I better be getting the 1st. Am I wrong?
Zyphros
Footballguy
What I mean is that if I owned Zeke (which I do in 1 league), I'd rather keep the more valuable piece which overall is the RB. In this league, I'm quitting after this year because I don't enjoy that league anymore so I don't really care enough to shop him around and see what I could get.
If I didn't own Zeke, he wouldn't be a trade target of mine at all. If anything I'd use those pieces to trade up in the 1st because I'd put the top3 RB's in 2021 > Zeke right now. He's my RB13 in dynasty right now, not including those 3 2021 rookies. So offering a questionable WR1 and a 1st seems like too much for a guy who has not looked good.
Both are in value hell like I mentioned, and there's a lot of questions surrounding both. Perhaps it's a little too much recency bias towards both of them, but I wouldn't be trying to trade for either.
Overall I don't buy low on players unless they're young, and my #1 rule in dynasty is to not pay the high price for age. Golladay because of injury gets a little bit of a slide that he'll be undervalued next year for sure, but there's a lot of injuries piling up for him now. Zeke is not productive and older and not injured, I want nothing to do with him as a buy candidate.
I see Zeke's value basically either maintaining a little because Dak comes back and that offense is likely to be very good all around and he'll have good opportunity. OR he looks the same as he has this year, they work Pollard or whoever else in more and Zeke would then officially be a RB2/3. I see 1 more year of high productivity at best, and then a cliff of value drop. It'll drop quickly when he gets there and I'm getting off the ride ASAP.
If I didn't own Zeke, he wouldn't be a trade target of mine at all. If anything I'd use those pieces to trade up in the 1st because I'd put the top3 RB's in 2021 > Zeke right now. He's my RB13 in dynasty right now, not including those 3 2021 rookies. So offering a questionable WR1 and a 1st seems like too much for a guy who has not looked good.
Both are in value hell like I mentioned, and there's a lot of questions surrounding both. Perhaps it's a little too much recency bias towards both of them, but I wouldn't be trying to trade for either.
Overall I don't buy low on players unless they're young, and my #1 rule in dynasty is to not pay the high price for age. Golladay because of injury gets a little bit of a slide that he'll be undervalued next year for sure, but there's a lot of injuries piling up for him now. Zeke is not productive and older and not injured, I want nothing to do with him as a buy candidate.
I see Zeke's value basically either maintaining a little because Dak comes back and that offense is likely to be very good all around and he'll have good opportunity. OR he looks the same as he has this year, they work Pollard or whoever else in more and Zeke would then officially be a RB2/3. I see 1 more year of high productivity at best, and then a cliff of value drop. It'll drop quickly when he gets there and I'm getting off the ride ASAP.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I can’t decide if Zeke is a buy low or not. I sold him last season and have avoided him since.
He’s not the same guy anymore, but he can still handle all of the touches they can give him and can do everything they ask him to. And while I wouldn’t count on it happening, I think shedding 10 pounds would do wonders for him. So there is some chance he regains a step.
He won’t be cut this offseason and will likely be on the team in 2022 as well, based on his contract. That’s 2 seasons in a high volume role on an offense that is likely to be much better than it is today. The carries, targets, and goal line work will all be there. That’s certainly valuable.
The kind of deal I could see myself making is downgrading from another 25+ YO back and getting Zeke and a sizable piece in return. Cook or Henry for Zeke and Akers or Dobbins, for example. I’m not sure if that’s doable though. I’m not interested in moving any of the young backs for him. I have him behind Robinson, Gibson and Sanders, for example.
He’s tricky.
He’s not the same guy anymore, but he can still handle all of the touches they can give him and can do everything they ask him to. And while I wouldn’t count on it happening, I think shedding 10 pounds would do wonders for him. So there is some chance he regains a step.
He won’t be cut this offseason and will likely be on the team in 2022 as well, based on his contract. That’s 2 seasons in a high volume role on an offense that is likely to be much better than it is today. The carries, targets, and goal line work will all be there. That’s certainly valuable.
The kind of deal I could see myself making is downgrading from another 25+ YO back and getting Zeke and a sizable piece in return. Cook or Henry for Zeke and Akers or Dobbins, for example. I’m not sure if that’s doable though. I’m not interested in moving any of the young backs for him. I have him behind Robinson, Gibson and Sanders, for example.
He’s tricky.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I understood you the first time and was slightly miffed people took shots at you for somehow being a backhanded trader or something. Just because you say you like the value on something doesn't mean you're obligated to make a deal.Zyphros said:
I can't even count how many times I've turned down an offer where I've said I think the value is fair but that I'm not interested.
Anyway the value hell idea made perfect sense the first time.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm not trading for either player for the same reasons.
kutta
Footballguy
Not to beat this goat any more, but the issue I had understanding his point was that it would seem to me that, at this point in time, you would prefer A (Golladay and a 1st) or B (Zeke). I understand saying they are in value hell, but we are talking about the same two pieces (A and B), and not comparing to some third piece (C).
His explanation above made sense, seeing he is leaving the league after next year. But I still contend that, all else being equal, we should be able to make a decision on A or B.
Smokin Okie
Footballguy
12 team - 12 player keeper league - Full PPR - IDP
I missed the playoffs by 11 points (so this trade is more for next season) and am very weak at the RB position. My WRs are stacked so I made the following trade with someone who needed help at WR in the playoffs:
Received:
RB Antonio Gibson
1st round pick
Gave:
WR Davante Adams
I missed the playoffs by 11 points (so this trade is more for next season) and am very weak at the RB position. My WRs are stacked so I made the following trade with someone who needed help at WR in the playoffs:
Received:
RB Antonio Gibson
1st round pick
Gave:
WR Davante Adams
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A few buy highs I like (and Julio):
Darren Waller’s season is on par with any of Kelce’s previous campaigns. He’s 3 years younger than Kelce. If we see him keeping this up he’s a bargain. Even coming off of some huge games, his price is likely lower than what Kelce was going for in the offseason. If I can downgrade from Kelce or Kittle and get something like a late 1st with Waller - I’m in. Anything less than 4th round startup value is a win.
Miles Sanders is one of the more talented backs in the NFL. For some reason he hasn’t been able to catch footballs this season, so he’s losing out on passing down work, which has destroyed his floor. Last year he only had 2 drops on ~60 targets and his hands were seen as a plus coming out of school. If we think this year is a fluke he’s easy money.
Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the Buffalo Bills are legit. Both players are a tier lower than they should be. Allen should be in the Watson tier, ahead of Wilson and Dak. Diggs should be next to Terry and Ridley, ahead of the Juju and Moore types.
Keenan Allen at 28 should at least be as valuable as Julio was at 30. Like Diggs, it’s worth giving up a few years (Juju and Moore) to get the better player IMO, if you’re competing. Get a piece of the Justin Herbert offense. He could take another step without Lynn holding him back next season.
Julio Jones is still worth a late 1st round pick to contenders.
Darren Waller’s season is on par with any of Kelce’s previous campaigns. He’s 3 years younger than Kelce. If we see him keeping this up he’s a bargain. Even coming off of some huge games, his price is likely lower than what Kelce was going for in the offseason. If I can downgrade from Kelce or Kittle and get something like a late 1st with Waller - I’m in. Anything less than 4th round startup value is a win.
Miles Sanders is one of the more talented backs in the NFL. For some reason he hasn’t been able to catch footballs this season, so he’s losing out on passing down work, which has destroyed his floor. Last year he only had 2 drops on ~60 targets and his hands were seen as a plus coming out of school. If we think this year is a fluke he’s easy money.
Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the Buffalo Bills are legit. Both players are a tier lower than they should be. Allen should be in the Watson tier, ahead of Wilson and Dak. Diggs should be next to Terry and Ridley, ahead of the Juju and Moore types.
Keenan Allen at 28 should at least be as valuable as Julio was at 30. Like Diggs, it’s worth giving up a few years (Juju and Moore) to get the better player IMO, if you’re competing. Get a piece of the Justin Herbert offense. He could take another step without Lynn holding him back next season.
Julio Jones is still worth a late 1st round pick to contenders.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
JUst to be clear it was not my intent to take shots at Zyphros.
I didn't understand his statement. So my guess about what he meant (which was wrong) was just based on my interpretation of the phrasing, then adding personal experience of trading with people who are inconsistent in their valuation of players depending on whos team those players happen to be on at the time. If the guy is on my team he is worth more reasoning.
I apologize if it seemed like I was taking shots at Zyphros. Not my intent at all. My comment was more of shot at the community as a whole because these inconsistencies happen a lot.
I have misunderstood Zyphros before and I should know better to just wait for further explanation instead of guessing.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It's all good, not necessary, I probably walked into the middle of something I didn't have the full context on, so I'm sorry too. I'm still not sure I understand the misunderstanding or how his further explanation made a difference, but it's no biggie.
I'm guilty of using the phrase "in a vacuum" all the time, but if I understood the context of this whole thing correctly, then I would prefer Zeke over Golladay and a late 1st, "in a vacuum". But I am simply not moving Golladay and a 1st for him if that's my side of a potential deal. Roster composition and team structure are more important (sometimes) than the simple value comparison. That said if I had Zeke I would likely move him for a late 1st and a WR that I liked over Golladay (for my own reasons that aren't relevant to this - I just don't like him). Sure as hell not targeting Zeke, though.
I disagree with @kutta about the A vs B but not C thing. On a message board or in reference to a calculator, it is perfectly reasonable to expect someone to take a stand based on the value "in a vacuum" and to say, no you have to pick A or B. But there is zero obligation to make a deal on that basis. Because deals have never happened in a vacuum in the history of the universe, so C is absolutely relevant. And to me C outweighs the difference between A and B, which is to say I don't like either player, they *are* in value hell, it doesn't help my team in a way to make me want to do it (in either direction), and I think I can do better with either A or B in terms of eventually finding a deal that makes C palatable for me. C could also include, and often does, the analysis of whether swapping a RB for a WR will hurt one's ''compete now'' chances.
I forget the details but there was a trade I turned down earlier in the season that seemed to scream value on my side, but it would have torpedoed my RB corp and my then playoff bound team would never have made it. A was greater than B in my favor but C was even greater. Because vacuums don't exist in trades.
