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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Has Antonio brown been traded in any of your dynasty leagues lately?
I'm shopping him as I'm needing to address other areas and get younger. I have two okay offers so far but don't really love the value - I'd think I'd get more for a top 5 dynasty asset. But maybe I'm being unreasonable?
I'm shopping him as I'm needing to address other areas and get younger. I have two okay offers so far but don't really love the value - I'd think I'd get more for a top 5 dynasty asset. But maybe I'm being unreasonable?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Ok, so what is reasonable? A very good younger wr plus a couple mid round picks / prospects?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
You’re going to have to be more specific but yeah I’d say a younger wr just outside the top 10 and maybe a mid 1st is reasonable. Gotta find the right team wanting to make a push though.
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jeaton6
Footballguy
A week ago I moved 2018 1/2 from 0-3 team (now 0-4) though I don't expect it to be 1.1 along with Funchess and Carlos Henderson for him. Only regret it if the pick ends up 1.1 and Brown doesn't get me the Ship.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What are the two offers?
I'd personally be willing to add a bit to the likes of Michael Thomas--maybe a mid-to-late 1st. I agree with Fruity though; you're not likely to pull top 5 prices. It might be worth trying to upgrade to OBJ/Evans--or maybe straight up for Hopkins.
The Gator
Footballguy
I offered Alshon, a mid 1st and an early 2nd for AB and was told he'd "that's fair, but I want to try and still win a few games"
Not sure if that helps, but it's a data point
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-OZ-
Footballguy
I tried for Thomas and a 1st, no dice.
Ended up getting Watkins, Jordan Matthews and a mid to late 1st for Antonio and Jamal Charles. Less than I wanted but I like Watkins in LA.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dynasty players always think they have to trade away 29/30 year old WRs (even elite ones) before their trade value fades away completely. Sometimes it makes sense, but sometimes I think they may just be better off riding out the productive string.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I won't disagree, this was more that I like Watkins and Matthews (to a lesser extent) than dislike brown. If Watkins can stay healthy he will be a top receiver imo. Which isn't to say he's near Antonio level, but next tier.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was speaking generally - like I said sometimes it makes sense for a team to do it. Sometimes it seems like team do it because they have to.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sure. You should do it when it makes sense for your team. Like trading stocks, if you do it out of fear you'll probably lose.
Of course I could be really wrong about Watkins...
-OZ-
Footballguy
Depends what you're looking for. In a 16 team league ppr he makes a fine 3 or good 4.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Sorry to beat a dead horse, but another data point on Cooper's value. I offered Ajayi (who I like) to a league-mate and was countered with M.Thomas+Landry. The other owner is a reasonable guy; I'm sure he's just going by the ADP data and dynasty rankings that value Cooper as a top 8 overall asset. But Cooper hasn't had a big game in almost a calander year. I can't think of a more overrated dynasty asset. The more I think about it, the more I feel he's a tier beneath the likes of Thomas and Diggs, despite their warts.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Andrew74
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What schtick are you referring to?
The last page of posts (that I just read) seem positive in regards to him. I know some have been very critical of him as a QB. Citing lack of arm strength and accuracy.
I think there are valid examples of Watson being very inaccurate, so it isn't all unjustified. I like Watkins though. He finds ways to win. Still consider him the best of the four promising rookie QBs from this year. Most recent game only solidifies that perspective for me.
I do think all four of those QB show promise. Just see Watkins as the guy who is has proven the most out of all of them. In college and so far in their very short NFL careers.
The schtick is that people keep calling him Deshaun Watkins when his name is spelled Deshone Watkins.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
My brain put Watson and Hopkins together--and I was calling him Watkins. But thanks to him, Hopson's stock is clearly trending up.
Zyphros
Footballguy
With the recent Derrick Henry talk I figured I'd take my AC question here, don't jump down my throat.
I have an offer of CJ Anderson and Alex Smith for him when I'm in need of RB and QB help (2QB 3RB btw). My real question is what kind of value does Anderson hold. He's 26, with Booker behind him and a spotty offense. How many more relevant years do we give him?
I have an offer of CJ Anderson and Alex Smith for him when I'm in need of RB and QB help (2QB 3RB btw). My real question is what kind of value does Anderson hold. He's 26, with Booker behind him and a spotty offense. How many more relevant years do we give him?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Andrew74
Footballguy
Price check on Zeke. The owner in my league actually is open to trading him, where before he wouldn't discuss. He did draft Hunt this year, so that probably helps. I read some posters' rankings from earlier in September. Any changes given the performance of rookies? Still a top 3 RB?
Pwingles
Footballguy
If you can acquire him, you should, obv. The only situation I would be shying away is if I am a borderline contender and the pieces involved take me out of contention. His weekly ceiling is still top tier RB1 even tho the cowboys are sucking
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Here's how I have the top 10 WRs today: (Tier - Ranking)
1 - 1. Odell Beckham Jr.
2 - 2. Mike Evans
3 - 3. Antonio Brown
3 - 4. Julio Jones
3 - 5. DeAndre Hopkins
3 - 6. A.J. Green
4 - 7. Michael Thomas
4 - 8. Stefon Diggs
4 - 9. Corey Davis
4 - 10. Amari Cooper
OBJ is on a tier of his own; so is Mike Evans. Sizable drop after tier 3. Thomas is a tough call for me. I'm not especially confident, but I'd only trade him for the guys ahead of him, so #7 it is.
1 - 1. Odell Beckham Jr.
2 - 2. Mike Evans
3 - 3. Antonio Brown
3 - 4. Julio Jones
3 - 5. DeAndre Hopkins
3 - 6. A.J. Green
4 - 7. Michael Thomas
4 - 8. Stefon Diggs
4 - 9. Corey Davis
4 - 10. Amari Cooper
OBJ is on a tier of his own; so is Mike Evans. Sizable drop after tier 3. Thomas is a tough call for me. I'm not especially confident, but I'd only trade him for the guys ahead of him, so #7 it is.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Thinking of trading Diggs in a non-ppr. Have a counter of 2018 1 & 2 on the table which seems light but he already rejected my Diggs and 2nd for two firsts.
Is he not worth two firsts as a top 10-ish dynasty WR?
Is he not worth two firsts as a top 10-ish dynasty WR?
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
If you were in the Buy/Low/Sell High thread you'd have the message board police all over you.
However this is what makes the forums busy again and active. I always try to answer within the context of a thread.I think Anderson's value will slowly dip week by week. Charles looks fresh for this year and I think the Broncos will look to replace Anderson within the draft with more upside. That was a fair offer. I'd take Henry.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Here's how I have the top 10 RBs today: (Tier - Ranking)
1 - 1. Zeke Elliott
2 - 2. Todd Gurley
2 - 3. Kareem Hunt
2 - 4. LeVeon Bell
2 - 5. David Johnson
3 - 6. Leonard Fournette
3 - 7. Devonta Freeman
4 - 8. Dalvin Cook
4 - 9. Christian McCaffrey
4 - 10. Jay Ajayi
Gurley looks like himself again, and I'm ready to value him accordingly. Things get messy after Freeman, but--gun to my head?--there it is.
Edit: Changed Cook from 3-8 to 4-8, as was my original intention.
1 - 1. Zeke Elliott
2 - 2. Todd Gurley
2 - 3. Kareem Hunt
2 - 4. LeVeon Bell
2 - 5. David Johnson
3 - 6. Leonard Fournette
3 - 7. Devonta Freeman
4 - 8. Dalvin Cook
4 - 9. Christian McCaffrey
4 - 10. Jay Ajayi
Gurley looks like himself again, and I'm ready to value him accordingly. Things get messy after Freeman, but--gun to my head?--there it is.
Edit: Changed Cook from 3-8 to 4-8, as was my original intention.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's been a while since I've played non-PPR, but I think 2x firsts is a bit much for him, as I don't think his current TD rate will hold. 1/2 is a bit light, depending on where they project to end up.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He's still my #1 back, by a pretty solid margin. He's a good deal younger than Bell and DJ; he doesn't have Gurley's down year or injury history; he's a much better athlete, is actually younger, and has a much longer track record than Hunt. He and OBJ are my top overall assets.Andrew74 said:
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Hi Andy,Andy Dufresne said:
I'd probably take the 1 and 2 for him in NON-PPR and hopefully can use some picks next year to move up and make a run at Barkley who I feel will be mega valuable in your format.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I can't imagine anyone that had the ability to get Barkley giving that up for just about anything.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I'd over-pay but yeah I agree. Our toilet bowl winner gets 1.1 so it's sometimes not the worst overall team making it easier to swing trades.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This thread is appropriate for these types of questions. This brings up some issues relevant to dynasty that would be applicable to other players and situations as well that i will try to go into detail about.Zyphros said:
Anderson has played well for the Broncos when healthy and I can see them sticking with him because of that beyond this year. My opinion about that has changed from last year when I thought Booker would assert himself and take the job. I still believe in Bookers talent but I don't see him having a chance to earn the job outright anymore. Anderson has played too well for them in several different seasons now, even though he has missed games (and might again at some point)
According to sportrac Anderson is under contract for two more seasons beyond this one. They can cut him after this season with no dead cap hit. His salary does increase to $4.5 million next year, but with the cap going up every year, that contract does not seem too expensive for a starting RB relative to the money other starters at RB are getting.
Anderson still hasn't been able to sustain his good performance for a full season yet, in college or the pro level. I do think Elway has some reservations about that and he stated so during the 2016 offseason when Miami tried to sign Anderson, but the Broncos ended up matching. This is part of why I thought the Broncos might be want Booker to take over for Anderson, because of this doubt they had/have about Anderson being able to stay healthy for a full season.
Booker did get that opportunity last year and he didn't do as well as Anderson in the same situation. There are some ancillary reasons for that, the Broncos offensive line was not performing well and IIRC they had injuries there later on in the season, also Booker being a rookie and perhaps not being used in ways that suit his strengths (heavy use of outside zone). They changed coaches from Kubiak so this may not be the case anymore. Booker did get a few carries as he is now healthy but not much, so they seem committed to Anderson even with Booker healthy. They likely just wanted to see how Booker would do on a few carries in preparation for if Anderson is injured again at some point this year.
On a side note I am noticing that Booker is listed as 24 years old as of May 17th of this year, which is different than the information about him last year when he was also listed as 24 years old. I am assuming the current information is correct in regards to this, and makes the outlook for Booker to be slightly improved as compared to him being a 24 year old rookie, which I previously thought was accurate (and a reason to doubt Bookers outlook).
Jamal Charles has played well enough to make the team and they are using him in a COP role (which so far he has performed well) so they will likely stick with that as long as Anderson and Charles are healthy for this year. Charles will be 32 years old next season, so seems unlikely he will be in the mix beyond this year.
At this point I think they will and should stick with Anderson. Even if he does get hurt and misses games due to injury at some point this season. So I can see him maintaining his value for fantasy for another two seasons.
The Broncos could draft another RB highly next season, which might change that outlook, but with Anderson, Booker and also Henderson showing some promise during preseason, it doesn't seem like that should be much of a priority for them.
Derreck Henry has flashed what he could do in week two against Jacksonville but he got stuffed in limited action against the Texans. Also as soon as Murray was healthy again, they have stuck with him. Now Murray didn't have a good game against the Texans either, but he did better than Henry did in that game.
I have Henry in one league so of course I am hoping for the best in regards to him, but this is shaping up to being a similar situation in my view as we saw with the Bears when they signed Thomas Jones and drafted Cedrick Benson very high (higher than the Titans invested in Henry). There were some off the field issues with Benson that Henry does not have (as far as I know) that was a part of this, but Jones just outplayed Benson and because of that, Benson never got a chance to become the Bears featured RB. Benson got his life right and had opportuniy with the Bengals later on in his career, showing that he could play in the NFL although not at as high a level as where the Bears drafted him.
I am getting a similar feeling about the Murray/Henry situation as that although Henry is a more promising prospect than Benson was (with the benefit of hindsight). Murray is 29 years old this season, so conceivable that he could maintain the starting role for the Titans next season and maybe even beyond that if he keeps playing well for them.
Murray is being paid a bit more than Anderson is according to sportrac and they could release him with no cap hit next year. However if they are happy with his play (as they seem to be) his salary isn't going up in the next two years at all, while the salary cap likely is going up, so I don't see them moving on from Murray as long as he keeps performing well for them.
We might be wondering what Henry could do if given the starter role for another year beyond this one, possibly two.
Alex Smith is having a career year right now. I think Mahomes is a promising QB but Smith is under contract with the Chiefs for the 2018 season and as long as he continues playing at a high level I don't see them moving on from him next year. Mahomes will have to wait another year for his chance if thats the case, which so far it is looking like it will be. Smith is a free agent in 2019 and will be 35 years old in 2019 which isn't too old for him to possibly get an extension with the Chiefs of find a new team to start for if they do let him go. That might be part of why Smith is playing so well right now. Feeling the heat of the rookie QB behind him is elevating his play.
In a 2QB league having a high performing QB is very valuable, so I think I would take the deal as offered to you. Even if the long term outlook on Henry may be more promising than Anderson (because of the age difference). The most important season is this one and Anderson+Smith are helping you win more now than Henry will.
Good luck with whatever you decide. I think that is a very solid offer and well worth considering.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Diggs isn't as valuable in standard format as PPR, but as we saw recently he can win contested catch situations in the end zone and might start scoring more TDs which would make him more valuable in standard format.Andy Dufresne said:
I would stand pat with asking for 2 1st round picks, you offering to give a 2nd round pick back as well is pretty reasonable I think.
I don't see any reason to rush your decision or compromise on the price. Diggs is good and the Vikings will likely need to throw the ball more without Cook. Some of those targets that Cook was getting likely going DIggs way.in games ahead.
Diggs is a young promising WR and should maintain his value for many years to come.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Sorry about that.
Cooks= Jordan Howard +?
Michael Thomas=Jordan howard +?
12 team PPR, what type of asset should one be looking for on top of Howard? I was offered Golladay which to me isn't enough.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I value both WR as more than Howard for dynasty.
Hard to say if Cooks or Thomas is the better WR asset.
If you think he needs to give more than either of these receivers for Howard, I would disagree with your point of view about that.
Mainly on the basis of the career length of RBs compared to WR.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
He's saying the opposite. Howard + something for them.
Personally I have Thomas >> Howard > Cooks.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Oh.
I do think all three are pretty close to the same value. In a vacuum I think the WR are worth more than Howard, but not that much more.
For a team that needs a RB to compete this year I could see trading either of those WR straight up for Howard, otherwise I would keep the WR.
Its close enough that Howard + 3rd round rookie pick for either WR would be fair. Howard + 2nd round pick would be paying more than I would want to give for either WR.
I think both WR are valuable, but worth about the same. I have more confidence in the long term outlook for the Patriots post Brady than I do the Saints post Brees.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I like Davis and have had high expectations of Cooper, but I'd probably have Watkins and Keenan Allen over both and diggs. Although it seems I'm higher on Watkins than most.
