Biabreakable
Footballguy
He might. The rest of the league especially AFC East teams would be pretty happy if he did.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
-OZ-
Footballguy
He's not ancient but he is 65 and might want a new challenge.
http://www.weei.com/blogs/weei/bill-belichick-spent-his-free-time-weekend-apple-picking
jeaton6
Footballguy
For more context: 12 Team PPR - Start 2 RB/3 WR/ 1 Flex RB/WR
I have a rebuilding owner coming at me trying to move Jordan Howard for one of my Cooks or Michael Thomas (I have OBJ, AJG, Thomas, Cooks, Landry, Thielen). I'm not actively shopping either or trying to acquire Howard (I have Bell, CJ, Crowell, Monty, Ingram, Powell but I do like Howard). I've told him he needs to add a good deal to Cooks or a lot to Thomas to make it happen as I prefer the WR longevity and likely stability at the position vs RB (especially given the concern/panic we saw with Howard earlier this year and the likelyhood he is only a 2 down guy with Cohens emergence).
Since he's coming to me and Howard isn't an absolute necessity for my squad (I recognize he'd be a nice addition) I really need more value than just even value.
He has Lockett, Njoku, D. Henry, Juju, Golladay, Arob.
So now that we've established even value, in his type of scenario what kind of overpay should one look for?
If this is too specific I can take to AC forum
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That makes sense as he is rebuilding to move a shorter term asset (Howard) for a longer term one (Cooks or Thomas).For more context: 12 Team PPR - Start 2 RB/3 WR/ 1 Flex RB/WR
I have a rebuilding owner coming at me trying to move Jordan Howard for one of my Cooks or Michael Thomas (I have OBJ, AJG, Thomas, Cooks, Landry, Thielen). I'm not actively shopping either or trying to acquire Howard (I have Bell, CJ, Crowell, Monty, Ingram, Powell but I do like Howard). I've told him he needs to add a good deal to Cooks or a lot to Thomas to make it happen as I prefer the WR longevity and likely stability at the position vs RB (especially given the concern/panic we saw with Howard earlier this year and the likelyhood he is only a 2 down guy with Cohens emergence).
Since he's coming to me and Howard isn't an absolute necessity for my squad (I recognize he'd be a nice addition) I really need more value than just even value.
He has Lockett, Njoku, D. Henry, Juju, Golladay, Arob.
So now that we've established even value, in his type of scenario what kind of overpay should one look for?
If this is too specific I can take to AC forum
As I said I think all 3 are pretty close in value. It is up to you how much you think it would take to trade one of them for Howard. Personally I wouldn't want to add much if I were the rebuilding owner, although I agree with what he is trying to do. He is trying to get a WR who can help him in the future as his team isn't competing for a title right now.
Since you do not particularly need Howard, I suppose you could try asking him to add a second round pick in 2018 or maybe one of his other players that you like who have similar value as that.
He really shouldn't be giving up future picks in deals because he is rebuilding and those picks may be high if he does not win many games. So from his perspective, giving up an extra player to make the move would make more sense for his goals in that regard.
Njoku is a guy that might be worth asking for if you need to start a TE? Also depends on roster space and who you would need to cut if you took on a 2 players for one type of deal.
If the owner is willing to move future picks, such as a 2nd round pick in 2018 that might be very appealing to you, as those picks may be higher especially after he gives up Howard. But you may need to send him something back besides the WR to make that happen, for example what if you offered him the WR of your choice (or his if you don't have a strong preference?) and a 3rd round pick in 2018 for Howard and his 2nd round pick in 2018?
I would try something like that if you like that value. Or just ask for the 2nd round pick and see if he counters, with the idea in mind that you will compromise a bit to get it done.
Or just keep what you have. You are in the drivers seat here as he is the one pursuing the trade.
Giving him the choice of the two WR he is interested in can be a nice thing to offer him if you don't have a strong preference between the two WR.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Certainly reasonable. It's likely time to drop Cooper again after Sunday. I'm not a Watkins guy. Allen and Hilton would likely be the next couple guys on the list.
Zyphros
Footballguy
How do people feel about the guys just outside the top10 WR's? There might be a couple of them inside the top10 for some, and outside for others so I just went off names I could think of who might be considered that high. Feel free to add more.
Hilton, Cooper, Cooks, Watkins, Jeffery, Keenan, Arob?
Personally I'd think Hilton is the highest of value in this group but starting to think he'd move down since Luck can't stay healthy.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Allen and Hilton are close for me; call it a coin flip. I'm tempted to put Adams next, as a gamble that he re-signs. I really don't like the other guys at their current ADPs. I'd rank them Cooks, Watkins, Dez, Hill, ARob, Jeffery. (Don't hold me to the order, I'd have to give it some thought before acting on it via trade.) After Adams, however, I'm more includined to go cheap and target Crabtree or Parker.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I would value Parker as a low WR1 and put him over Davis, Allen, Jeffery, Watkins, Dez easily.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Do you feel Parker was a better prospect than Davis was this year?
Edit: I viewed both as top 15 NFL picks, but would take the dice roll over Parker's career to this point.
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One More Rep
Footballguy
Parker looks to be a true 3rd year breakout and is flashing nicely, but I prefer all the above over him outside of Dez.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Oh forgot to add Davis in there, he'd easily be up there to me. Not a fan of Parker myself as a pure dominant guy so it would be really tough for me to put him there in a post-Cutler era. I'd tentatively put Keenan Allen and Alshon Jeffery over him but I'd take Parker > Watkins if I had the choice.
I was a much bigger fan of Davis coming out than Parker coming out so that probably explains it.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think Parker is a better prospect because he's faster and a better jump ball player. Both can be good possession WR (and have basically shown as much). The preseason TD he had against Ronald Darby is the type of thing I don't see Davis doing. I view Davis as you hope he's Keenan Allen, and while TENN is a good situation, it's not an elite situation. I view Parker as you hope he's AJ Green, and MIA is a wild card situation (coach is possibly a positive). Parker's injury history is a little more concerning at this point but I'd still prefer him for perceived upside.
Doing a sanity check against ESPN's rankings Clay has them #23 and #24 overall. It is close and likely who wins may be based more on circumstances like injury and coaching.
I think Jeffery and Dez for Parker are the easiest calls. I respect their talent and 27/28 is not old, but neither of those have been great in three years.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
What is value of DJ right now?
Looking for a little help ....... background info ...currently 2-3 currently tied for 7th - 1 game back of a playoff spot due to bad luck with a starting lineup of Brees, Bell, Ajayi, Green, Dez, Kelce with not much of a bench other than THill, Rawls, Collins, Hurns, CThomspon, Eifert, Engram.
I was approached by the David Johnson owner of trading Green and Hurns for DJ. I feel that this is cheap for DJ due to injury, but do I risk rolling the dice that he returns in week 9 or 10 and hope to stay afloat with my bench or stay put with Green and take those points. If I get DJ, I would need to deal my 1st Round Pick and my 3 2nd Round Picks in some combination to get a wr to help me until DJ is back.
Thanks.
Looking for a little help ....... background info ...currently 2-3 currently tied for 7th - 1 game back of a playoff spot due to bad luck with a starting lineup of Brees, Bell, Ajayi, Green, Dez, Kelce with not much of a bench other than THill, Rawls, Collins, Hurns, CThomspon, Eifert, Engram.
I was approached by the David Johnson owner of trading Green and Hurns for DJ. I feel that this is cheap for DJ due to injury, but do I risk rolling the dice that he returns in week 9 or 10 and hope to stay afloat with my bench or stay put with Green and take those points. If I get DJ, I would need to deal my 1st Round Pick and my 3 2nd Round Picks in some combination to get a wr to help me until DJ is back.
Thanks.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
If you like DJ more than Green I would do the deal. You can get cheap WR help like Garcon, Amendola, Kearse, and Fitzgerald without giving up your 1st. I would do the deal with 2018 in mind and not 2017. DJ should be worth more than Green next year but you are giving up points this year.
Green turns 30 next year which will affect his market value but I feel pretty confident about his expected points if holding until retirement.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I offered Hilton for DJ straight up to a competing team (I'm competing in 2018) and he countered asking for Corey Davis as well. Not sure if that's much help honestly but it's at least a reference point to gauge from. I don't think Hurns carries much value so he's basically a throw in to me, and Green being on the older side I can see doing that deal, with the caveat of getting a WR to replace Green.
ETA: I do think that DJ and Green have roughly the same shelf-life left in their careers so keep that in mind.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
That is a pretty fair offer I think but your WR depth can't really support the move in my opinion. As you mention acquiring another good receiver would be expensive.
If you only have to start two WR I would take the deal, but I am guessing you need to start 3 or more WR each week based on what you expect to have to pay to get a good one.
Perhaps try to see what kind of WR deals you could get from other owners, and if you like one of those deals well enough, then do both trades at the same time.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW just read that Peterson has been traded to the Cardinals for a conditional draft pick (curious about what that pick and the condition is).
I don't really see this affecting the value of David Johnson, but for those considering trades that involve Johnson, another bit of information that you likely want to know.
I don't really see this affecting the value of David Johnson, but for those considering trades that involve Johnson, another bit of information that you likely want to know.
Zyphros
Footballguy
#1 overall dynasty prices - for 2 reasons. 1. He's worth it. 2. If someone wants him, they obviously view him up there so again he's worth it. People are likely trying to buy low on him cause, at least in my leagues, he's WR20 in ppr leagues.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Yeah I have no desire to sell him low. Dude is so young still and there's no reason to not believe in him long-term. I just have been getting crap offers for the most part for him. Just wanted to make sure I wasn't overvaluing him.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
We have different roster formations we can start...but I can start 3 rb 1 wr 1 te ....so looking at Brees, Bell, DJ (when healthy), Ajayi, Dez, Kelce
I may be able to add Keenan Allen for my 1st rounder next year
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ah. I like the deal a lot better for you in that case then.
You are still downgrading at WR though if you move Green. Not an easy player to replace.
I don't have a lot of confidence in Dez holding that down for you. Hill might be a better option, but he isn't exactly reliable either.
As I mentioned previously, try to kick he tires on some other WR deals for more options.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Selfish AC question, kind of. What's Ertz's value in rookie picks?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Good question.
Wentz and Ertz have exceeded my expectations. I can see trading a first round pick for Ertz. Not sure I would give more than that though.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like Parker and respect the call. I do have some fears about his work ethic, injury history, and route running ability. I don't see him win at the first level, the way Green does.thriftyrocker said:
Allen is a solid comp for Davis, perhaps, but I prefer Marshall, who was the better player in his prime.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Here's why I'm buying Dez: He's 28; it would be unusual for him to be falling off at this age. Down years in 15 and 16 can be attributed to injuries to both Dez and Romo. The two injuries to Dez were freakish contact injuries.
Dak preferred to play it safe and target Witten and Beasley early on, but he's now opening things up. Unlike last season, the targets are there.
Looking at 2017--he's faced Jenkins, Harris Jr., Peterson, and Trumaine Johnson to start the season. That's brutal. I'm expecting his production to increase as the schedule lightens up.
I keep hearing that he's lost a step, but I just don't see it. He was never a burner and separation was never his strength. He's still one of the very best 50/50 guys in the league and can still cut off defenders with his shoulder on the slant. I think he's a borderline WR1 rest of season, with a good shot to finish around 80/1,100/10.
Dak preferred to play it safe and target Witten and Beasley early on, but he's now opening things up. Unlike last season, the targets are there.
Looking at 2017--he's faced Jenkins, Harris Jr., Peterson, and Trumaine Johnson to start the season. That's brutal. I'm expecting his production to increase as the schedule lightens up.
I keep hearing that he's lost a step, but I just don't see it. He was never a burner and separation was never his strength. He's still one of the very best 50/50 guys in the league and can still cut off defenders with his shoulder on the slant. I think he's a borderline WR1 rest of season, with a good shot to finish around 80/1,100/10.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I would buy Dez but not at elite WR prices. If you can get washed up WR prices (late 1st or base something on a player like Shepard or the other Bryant). TDs will come in bunches which will swing his value a little. But will the 7-10 reception games? Not reliably.
One More Rep
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Both are great. Dak is a more reliable fantasy asset, and assuming it is your only startable option I would take Dak. I think Wentz has more of a possibility of becoming a top 3/high VBD QB, just based on the mental aspect that elite QB tend to have. Not that Dak is lacking but just Wentz is very high. Late game (which matters little in most leagues since they are both 24) I would rather start Wentz in his 30s.
In one of my superflex I have Dak but not Wentz so this is something that bothers me.
kutta
Footballguy
I have Ertz and it would take probably at least a mid-first for me. High-scoring TE's are very scarce, and he looks like he could be one for quite awhile. The point differential he offers over 8 or 9 other teams in your league is just too big to give up for peanuts.
Charles Clay is the 6th ranked TE in PPR per game, and Ertz is scoring a full five points more than him per game. That's huge.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I underestimated Dak's upside, I think. As a fan, it's reassuring to see him produce on higher volume, with weaker protection, and with less production from the running game. I think I'd take Dak in 4pt leagues and Wentz in 6pt leagues. I'd take both over Mariota, Newton, and Winston today.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
What's his new basline? I'm not ready to count on 100/1,200/6, which is his current pace. I feel great investing in redraft and would likely take him over Kelce, even. In dynasty, I'm worried that he goes back to his respectable but human 75/800/4. TEs are kind of a tricky call for me; so much is opportunity and reading zones.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade for a late 1st but I would for a late 1st and Engram or possibly Henry/Njoku. This includes leagues where I also have Kelce or Gronk.
One More Rep
Footballguy
I think Engram and a 1st would be tough to get. Probably could get one of the other two added to a 1st though.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I wouldn't do that as the Engran/Henry/Njoku owner.
Ertz is putting up much better numbers than they are right now but since we are talking about future picks and dynasty I don't see Ertz as being a better TE than those players are, he is just further along in his development right now and in a better situation. To me they are all pretty equal prospects.
I could see giving up those players and a 2nd round pick to move to a TE who is producing good numbers for me now, but not more than that.
With all the injuries to the Giants WR I could see Engram getting a lot more targets in weeks ahead and I wouldn't want to move him at all right now.
Andrew74
Footballguy
I went back and looked at his games from game 8 last year (11/06/16) through this past week, so 14 games. His totals are (targets/rec/yds/TDs) 134-95-1,053-6. That's basically a whole season. Pro rate it out to 153-109-1,203-7 over 16 games. In my 0.5PPR that 215.77 points. For reference over the past 3 years, the only better TE performance was Gronk in 2014 and 2015 at 225.4 and 219.84, respectively.
I am not sure at what point we can trust this is the new trend, but he's approaching a full season of elite production. It would take a mid-1st for me to think about dealing him, since at present he's at Gronk and (old) Graham-level advantage. Plus, I have Njoku so I am willing to ride this to victory; if he flames out in a year or so, hopefully Njoku is ready to take his place.
Spike
Footballguy
Absolutely. People just took Engram with, at worst, a mid-2nd rookie pick this year. I see no situation in which experienced dynasty leaguers make an offer like a 1st and Engram for Ertz.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't see Ertz for a late 1st as a sign of an experienced dynasty owner either. You sat on a guy for 4 years. He starts producing at an elite level. And you sell for a pick good enough to get a TE like Howard or Engram that might eventually be good or a 25% chance at a startable RB.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Regarding a few of the guys mentioned here lately...
DeVante Parker - Meh, he's a sell to me. 47% of his fantasy points this year have come in the last 2 minutes of games they were trailing by 3+ scores. There is garbage time, and there is GARBAGE time. He hasn't really done anything in regular garbage time. It's taken super duper ultra garbage time. He has been meh when the DBs are trying, meh when the DBs are half trying, and good when the DBs have one foot on the bus home just trying to not get injured.
Dak - A good case of FFers not learning from the past. He was a game manager last year and people are afraid it won't translate to volume. But guys who put up that crazy efficiency he did in a game manager role have pretty reliably transferred to volume. Big Ben, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady. These are the only guys who've been as efficient as a game manager and in all three cases it translated when they moved out of the game manager role. He is a buy to me.
Dez - While it may sound silly given that I am high on his QB, I am not high on Dez even at his current prices. Sure it's not likely he's declined significantly at 28, but it's also a 28 with lower leg injuries. More importantly, teams seem to have figured him out. He's not a burner so play him short and rely on your speed to catch up if he goes over the top. Most of his downfield catches are covered, contested catches and Dak is just a lot less likely to throw those than gunslinger Romo was. He'll still get them every once in a while, but without the dominant underneath game because the DBs have figured out they don't really need to be scared about getting burned, there just isn't the volume there, especially in PPR.
DeVante Parker - Meh, he's a sell to me. 47% of his fantasy points this year have come in the last 2 minutes of games they were trailing by 3+ scores. There is garbage time, and there is GARBAGE time. He hasn't really done anything in regular garbage time. It's taken super duper ultra garbage time. He has been meh when the DBs are trying, meh when the DBs are half trying, and good when the DBs have one foot on the bus home just trying to not get injured.
Dak - A good case of FFers not learning from the past. He was a game manager last year and people are afraid it won't translate to volume. But guys who put up that crazy efficiency he did in a game manager role have pretty reliably transferred to volume. Big Ben, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady. These are the only guys who've been as efficient as a game manager and in all three cases it translated when they moved out of the game manager role. He is a buy to me.
Dez - While it may sound silly given that I am high on his QB, I am not high on Dez even at his current prices. Sure it's not likely he's declined significantly at 28, but it's also a 28 with lower leg injuries. More importantly, teams seem to have figured him out. He's not a burner so play him short and rely on your speed to catch up if he goes over the top. Most of his downfield catches are covered, contested catches and Dak is just a lot less likely to throw those than gunslinger Romo was. He'll still get them every once in a while, but without the dominant underneath game because the DBs have figured out they don't really need to be scared about getting burned, there just isn't the volume there, especially in PPR.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yep. He's my top player in dynasty especially after OBJ's injury. I would need Corey Davis (or another similar receiver but if I'm trading Evans u have to get a guy I like) plus a useful asset - 1st or a good player.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I've been watching closely as an Ajayi owner, and I'm not sure it's fair to fault Parker for that--the entire offense is broken. Nothing happens until garbage time.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
As an unlucky Dolphins fan I've been watching closely too and I think he is contributing to that broken offense. Landry has been getting his pre-garbage time and this was supposed to be a QB much more suited to throw to Parker than Landry.
I wonder what his value would be if AJ Green didn't exist. So many people seem to value Parker highly because he has the same body type as AJG so people think he can be him. But by this point in his career AJG was working on his 3rd pro bowl season, one of those with a rookie QB who was basically a poor man's Ryan Tannehill at the time.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Cooper Kupp - where would you take him in the list of WRs if you started your rookie draft over today? Has he shown enough to warrant a big bump compared to where he was ranked in May?
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I have an extreme ownership % of Kupp but I would still not put him higher than 3rd '17 WR and a late 1st valuation, only slightly above Zay and Golladay.
NFL-ons
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Man I would give a late 1st for him in a flash. I'd give quite a bit more. Not Engram more, because I see Engram as worth his own mid-first right now, but I would definitely sweeten the pot for Ertz.
