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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (8 Viewers)

5-6 games don't mean you've "proven it" in the NFL, as many pros can look good for small stretches of time. I do think Fournette is going to have a strong career, but if you put Barkley on an NFL team today then I think you'd see similar or better performance.

I wouldn't trade Fournette for the 1.01 if I had a team in contention, but in terms of remaining career value (like in a startup draft) I would rather have Barkley.

 
Whats OBJs value right now? If you were a contender would you give up your season to get him for the likes of the older stud WRs, guys like Antonio, Julio, AJ Green?

 
What's Zeke's dynasty PPR value now? I was just offered Julio & Gio for Zeke & Alfred. I'd be left with Miller, Lynch, Ingram, Collins & McGuire at RB. I am thinking counter asking for Kamara instead of Gio.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Whats OBJs value right now? If you were a contender would you give up your season to get him for the likes of the older stud WRs, guys like Antonio, Julio, AJ Green?
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#1 dynasty WR, in the running for #1 overall dynasty player still for me.  I would easily trade any of those guys for OBJ whether I was a contender or not.

 
Magic_Man said:
What's Zeke's dynasty PPR value now? I was just offered Julio & Gio for Zeke & Alfred. I'd be left with Miller, Lynch, Ingram, Collins & McGuire at RB. I am thinking counter asking for Kamara instead of Gio.
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Basically Julio for Zeke and I'd have Zeke waaaaaaay over Julio.

 
Magic_Man said:
What's Zeke's dynasty PPR value now? I was just offered Julio & Gio for Zeke & Alfred. I'd be left with Miller, Lynch, Ingram, Collins & McGuire at RB. I am thinking counter asking for Kamara instead of Gio.
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Well, he rejected my counter as expected because it was a lofty counter. However, he sent another offer of Julio, Landry & D. Murray for Zeke, Morris & Marvin Jones.

 
Two Odell trades in two different competitive leagues

1. Julio and Ogletree for Odell. Ogletree is worth a high 2nd.

2. Odell for basically Antonio straight up

both teams trading Odell had championship aspirations. 

 
Magic_Man said:
Well, he rejected my counter as expected because it was a lofty counter. However, he sent another offer of Julio, Landry & D. Murray for Zeke, Morris & Marvin Jones.
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I think that's still a great deal for you.

ETA: Not sure if I'm reading which side you are on right.  I like the Zeke side.

 
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What would people say Julio Jones value is in a PPR now?  TY Hilton and Brandin Cooks?  McCaffery and Mixon?  Hopkins and a sure-fire top-3 rookie pick?

Asking for a friend.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I think that's still a great deal for you.

ETA: Not sure if I'm reading which side you are on right.  I like the Zeke side.
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I did the deal. I was the 1 that traded Zeke away. I'm now shopping Julio. I have an offer for Julio & Njoku (I have Gronk) for his Tyreek Hill & Ajayi. I'm going to accept it if the other league member with Melvin Gordon does not come back with a better counter. If I land Gordon or Ajayi, I will shop Murray and/or Lynch.

 
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Spike said:
What would people say Julio Jones value is in a PPR now?  TY Hilton and Brandin Cooks?  McCaffery and Mixon?  Hopkins and a sure-fire top-3 rookie pick?

Asking for a friend.
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Auto accept any of those. No one I know would move Hopkins++. It would be Julio++ for Hopkins. Maybe someone would do McCaffry+Mixon  but not me.

 
Spike said:
What would people say Julio Jones value is in a PPR now?  TY Hilton and Brandin Cooks?  McCaffery and Mixon?  Hopkins and a sure-fire top-3 rookie pick?

Asking for a friend.
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I would take all of those packages over Julio, easily.  But I think Julio is pretty overrated right now.

 
Spike said:
What would people say Julio Jones value is in a PPR now?  TY Hilton and Brandin Cooks?  McCaffery and Mixon?  Hopkins and a sure-fire top-3 rookie pick?

Asking for a friend.
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Julio's not worth anything close to that anymore, and I own him.

 
What's AP worth?  Am I crazy to think he's worth a high 2nd round pick to a competing team?  He's 32 YO, but he's also Adrian-freaking-Peterson.  

 
Concept Coop said:
What's AP worth?  Am I crazy to think he's worth a high 2nd round pick to a competing team?  He's 32 YO, but he's also Adrian-freaking-Peterson.  
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I think you are a little crazy. Most competing teams will be picking in the later part of round 2 so they won'y have an early round 2. I could see a competing team in dire need of RB help maybe gambling a late round 2 pick but it has been one decent game and the threat of David Johnson being back come playoff time should cool the boil.  If you find the right owner you might get lucky and get that late round 2/early round 3 pick value.

 
Warhogs said:
I think you are a little crazy. Most competing teams will be picking in the later part of round 2 so they won'y have an early round 2. I could see a competing team in dire need of RB help maybe gambling a late round 2 pick but it has been one decent game and the threat of David Johnson being back come playoff time should cool the boil.  If you find the right owner you might get lucky and get that late round 2/early round 3 pick value.
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Certainly fair.  I was really impressed by his play, but you make good points.  It's more than just one decent game to me, personally, however.  He looked like the 2015 version of himself yesterday.  Perhaps I'm putting too much into that, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect another year of startable production from AP, on top of what he provides this season.  

 
I don't want to dismiss his strong game this weekend and he has always been a beast but at his age and with all the punishment he has taken in his career I think there is a big question about his ability to hold up. So why do you think he can be startable both this year and next? No David Johnson coming back this year? I assume you feel he would be startable on another new team next year since David Johnson is in Arizona? I'm just not as optimistic and if I were looking to cash in on AP I would gladly take any round 2 pick if offered.

 
Warhogs said:
I don't want to dismiss his strong game this weekend and he has always been a beast but at his age and with all the punishment he has taken in his career I think there is a big question about his ability to hold up. So why do you think he can be startable both this year and next? No David Johnson coming back this year? I assume you feel he would be startable on another new team next year since David Johnson is in Arizona? I'm just not as optimistic and if I were looking to cash in on AP I would gladly take any round 2 pick if offered.
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In terms of punishment, it's worth pointing out that he's essentially missed 2 of the last 3 seasons; one of which was not injury related.  

I do assume he's on another roster next year.  He's made it clear that he expects touches, will be a distraction otherwise, and AZ knew that when they traded for him.  I'm guessing he's cut (at his request) and signs a 1 year deal somewhere else.  That's not certain, of course, so the risk that he's stuck behind DJ should be accounted for.

I know it doesn't make sense to have much faith in a 32 YO RB, but Adrian Peterson has done a lot of things that don't make sense.  We all know his story, so I'll spare the hyperbole. But I just think it makes sense to treat a 32 YO AP differently than you would just about anyone else at that age.  He didn't look 32 YO yesterday.    

But I think your stance is perfectly reasonable.  If I'm selling--if I don't have the spot in my starting lineup or am rebuilding--I'd take a 2nd myself.    

Edit: He looks to have more juice left than Demarco Murray, FWIW.  

 
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Concept Coop said:
What's AP worth?  Am I crazy to think he's worth a high 2nd round pick to a competing team?  He's 32 YO, but he's also Adrian-freaking-Peterson.  
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That's ambiguous, hopefully people use "early" or "late" for clarity.  I wouldn't do a 2nd.  Yes, it's AP but it might be as few as 2 games since DJ is eligible to return for week 10.

 
It looks like Arians is changing his tune from Christmas to potentially Thanksgiving for a DJ return.  Of course AP would need to play into the fantasy playoffs to justify a 2nd round investment.  I still say he's got more juice than Murray and maybe even McCoy.  He'll be a strong buy low candidate for me once DJ is back.  AP's not done.  

 
Concept Coop said:
What's AP worth?  Am I crazy to think he's worth a high 2nd round pick to a competing team?  He's 32 YO, but he's also Adrian-freaking-Peterson.  
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I got him for a 3rd in a 10 team league about 5 minutes after the news broke they traded him to Arizona.  It is 1QB 3RB 5WR 2TE plus a flex (most people use it as super flex), and full IDP so those picks are a little more inflated.  

 
Concept Coop said:
It looks like Arians is changing his tune from Christmas to potentially Thanksgiving for a DJ return.  Of course AP would need to play into the fantasy playoffs to justify a 2nd round investment.  I still say he's got more juice than Murray and maybe even McCoy.  He'll be a strong buy low candidate for me once DJ is back.  AP's not done.  
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Rotoworld misquoted Arians from the beginning. He has said all along that DJ will be back by "Thanksgiving or Christmas" and Rotoworld just reported the Christmas part.

https://www.google.com/amp/arizonasports.com/story/1240122/cardinals-bruce-arians-hopes-david-johnson-back-thanksgiving-christmas/amp/

http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/10404/david-johnson

 
I have a general question that I think belongs here instead of assistant coach. 

Semi-dynasty; we keep ten each year and draft the other ten for our roster. I am currently in first place and am a likely playoff team. We do weekly waivers based on current record.

I had amassed four third round picks. I traded two of them to the GM who currently has the worst record. In exchange, he is allowing me to choose to use his waiver position any two weeks until the playoffs begin.

The team with the second worst record -- these teams are 1-5, and there is only one 2-4 team -- reached out to me to see if I wanted to do the same deal with him for my other two thirds. I probably won't end up with a keeper from any of these spots, but not only is the potential value there to get guys who help this year, but if I hit on a waiver stud I could potentially trade him for a first or second. 

The real question is -- in dynasty, how do you value draft picks over and against waiver priority?

 
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Concept Coop said:
What's AP worth?  Am I crazy to think he's worth a high 2nd round pick to a competing team?  He's 32 YO, but he's also Adrian-freaking-Peterson.  
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I would not give a high 2nd for him in dynasty. I wonder if the AP owner in my 1 league will be thinking sell high & trade him to me for Lynch. I doubt it

 
doog7642 said:
I had amassed four third round picks. I traded two of them to the GM who currently has the worst record. In exchange, he is allowing me to choose to use his waiver position any two weeks until the playoffs begin.
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Next year switch to blind bid budget instead of waiver priority. It is easier to trade bb$ instead of waiver priority. I would value 100% of yearly budget as about the same as a 2nd round pick (another way to say, I would bid 100% on anyone I think is worth a 2nd round pick).

 
doog7642 said:
I have a general question that I think belongs here instead of assistant coach. 

Semi-dynasty; we keep ten each year and draft the other ten for our roster. I am currently in first place and am a likely playoff team. We do weekly waivers based on current record.

I had amassed four third round picks. I traded two of them to the GM who currently has the worst record. In exchange, he is allowing me to choose to use his waiver position any two weeks until the playoffs begin.

The team with the second worst record -- these teams are 1-5, and there is only one 2-4 team -- reached out to me to see if I wanted to do the same deal with him for my other two thirds. I probably won't end up with a keeper from any of these spots, but not only is the potential value there to get guys who help this year, but if I hit on a waiver stud I could potentially trade him for a first or second. 

The real question is -- in dynasty, how do you value draft picks over and against waiver priority?
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I would value it as collusion. 

 
I don't know that I would call it collusion but in my leagues it would probably be considered an illegal trade. In my leagues you can't trade future undefined considerations. Trading the ability to use a future waiver claim not defined would be illegal. Also, in my leagues all assets to be traded need to happen at the same time so trading a future pick now for players to be determined through future waivers not yet defined now would not be allowed. Now, if you traded a pick for the guys waiver pick this week (or probably better defined in my leagues the team with the waiver spot would have to pick said player and then trade that player to me) that could be constructed and allowed.

 
Yeah I agree it's not actual collusion because both teams are getting value out of it, but it's bad optics to give something now for something you get to define later/when.   Also, it's stupid by him.  One week's waiver claims might not look very good, then the next week you have Tarik Cohen or Tyreek Hill on your hands.  He just gave your choice of the two best uses.  He should have just waited for each week and let you know "hey, it's available for a 3rd" and you wouldn't have any optics issue.  Curious, did your league mates have any issues with it?

There's no way to answer the actual question.  It's fully dependent upon the league specifics and changes literally every week.  It's probably never going to be much higher than a future 2nd, and most weeks probably a 3rd or 4th at best.

 
I just turned down an offer of Kelce straight up for my Diggs in dynasty PPR. I have Gronk already. I could flex Kelce or then try to move Gronk straight up for another WR, but I like Diggs more. Maybe I'm nuts.

 
Hankmoody said:
Yeah I agree it's not actual collusion because both teams are getting value out of it, but it's bad optics to give something now for something you get to define later/when.   Also, it's stupid by him.  One week's waiver claims might not look very good, then the next week you have Tarik Cohen or Tyreek Hill on your hands.  He just gave your choice of the two best uses.  He should have just waited for each week and let you know "hey, it's available for a 3rd" and you wouldn't have any optics issue.  Curious, did your league mates have any issues with it?

There's no way to answer the actual question.  It's fully dependent upon the league specifics and changes literally every week.  It's probably never going to be much higher than a future 2nd, and most weeks probably a 3rd or 4th at best.
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Thanks much for taking the time here. Nobody in the league has raised objection. I'm still trying to decide whether to do the deal the second time.

 
Hankmoody said:
Yeah I agree it's not actual collusion because both teams are getting value out of it
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It is not a requirement that only one team gets something out of it to be collusion.  See the thread about someone sending over a pick to "rent" a player for a week, or teams swapping around players back and forth to cover each other's bye weeks.  Both of those are well defined as collusion even though in both cases both teams benefit.

If there is no mechanism built into the software to trade waiver priority and no rules stipulating that it can be done then it is not a tradeable asset, and two owners conspiring (!) to get around those limitations is collusion the same way that renting players from each other or trading for assets outside the league is.  Obviously if the league doesn't object then no harm no foul I guess, but it's a fairly dangerous precedent that will probably end up getting thrown back in his face at some point down the line when another team pushes things a little further and he tries to object.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
It is not a requirement that only one team gets something out of it to be collusion.  See the thread about someone sending over a pick to "rent" a player for a week, or teams swapping around players back and forth to cover each other's bye weeks.  Both of those are well defined as collusion even though in both cases both teams benefit.

If there is no mechanism built into the software to trade waiver priority and no rules stipulating that it can be done then it is not a tradeable asset, and two owners conspiring (!) to get around those limitations is collusion the same way that renting players from each other or trading for assets outside the league is.  Obviously if the league doesn't object then no harm no foul I guess, but it's a fairly dangerous precedent that will probably end up getting thrown back in his face at some point down the line when another team pushes things a little further and he tries to object.
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That may be your definition but it's not mine.  Collusion is when two owners work together to benefit only one of them within the framework of the league, or one of them in an extremely imbalanced manner so as not to be fairly competitive.  If both players are getting real value out of it, then it's a trade.  It might be a bad trade, or a dumb trade, or a morally ambiguous temporary trade but it's a trade. 

Anyway, on topic of the thread....

 
Hankmoody said:
That may be your definition but it's not mine.  Collusion is when two owners work together to benefit only one of them within the framework of the league, or one of them in an extremely imbalanced manner so as not to be fairly competitive.  If both players are getting real value out of it, then it's a trade.  It might be a bad trade, or a dumb trade, or a morally ambiguous temporary trade but it's a trade. 

Anyway, on topic of the thread....
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iii: No morally ambiguous, temporary trades.

 
He's WR3 right now and shows no sign of slowing down, he's gotta be late 1/early 2 unless he falls off a cliff later this year.

 
Concept Coop said:
At 30?  I'll be surprised to see him go round 1.  He'll be bumped for Fournette, Hunt, Hopkins, etc., in my opinion.
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Sure, but he'll also bump guys like Cooper/Julio too.

Bell
DJ
EZE
Fournette
Gordon
Gurley
Hunt
AB
Evans
Hopkins
OBJ

Who else?  Julio?  Gimmie AJG all day.  Michael Thomas?  Possibly, depending on Brees.  Plus you'll have some flavor picks in there.  Does Gurley revert to 2016 form?  Can Hunt keep it up to be definitive?  Does Bell change teams?  Does Big Ben return (throwing doubt on AB and Bell both)?  AJG is only a year older than AB.

I think he's definitely a candidate for late round 1 but I did say late 1/early 2 initially.

 
Hankmoody said:
Who else? 
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Barkley.  I think a few others as well.  Guys like CMac, Mixon, Cooper, Davis, Julio, and Thomas could all be in that mix, depending on what happens rest of season.  I think early-to-mid 2nd is where he'll be coming off the board.  There's something scary about the big 3-0, that early in startups.  Although, I could certainly some owners targeting two of Julio/Brown/Green at the turn.  

 
Calvin Johnson turned 30 in 15 and his adp was about 14 that year (WR10). The 3 players above him were Jeffery, Lacy, and Cobb. The 3 players behind him were Hopkins, Watkins and Rodgers.

Brandon Marshall turned 30 in 14 and his adp was about 14 that year (WR9). The 3 players above him were Bernard, Cobb, and Allen. The 3 players behind him were Bell, Brown, and Martin.

 
What's Sammy worth these days?  Headed somewhere next year in FA, is a hold and suffer until he lands next year or do you try and ship him?

I have gotten 4-5 lowball offers in my opinion

I give Watkins  I get Rudolph early 18 2nd

I give Watkins I get ASJ early 18 2nd

I give Watkins I get Engram.

What is everybody doing with Sammy?

 
Matt's Eagles said:
What's Sammy worth these days?  Headed somewhere next year in FA, is a hold and suffer until he lands next year or do you try and ship him?

I have gotten 4-5 lowball offers in my opinion

I give Watkins  I get Rudolph early 18 2nd

I give Watkins I get ASJ early 18 2nd

I give Watkins I get Engram.

What is everybody doing with Sammy?
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I'd sell him for Engram in a heartbeat.

 
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