Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
how about Keenan Allen, in 2017 draft what rookie pick would you need for him?
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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joey
Footballguy
yeah. I'm holding for sure and riding him into the ground since my team is a contender.
If you want to sell him, wait til next year when he's still putting up numbers early in the season, and sell him to a contender then for a 1st rounder.
If the trade offer for Keenan Allen was
1.1, Yes,
1.2 Still yes
1.3 Probably,
1.4 Maybe
1.5 No
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
There is nothing wrong with Hoplins the player. Still capable of putting up big numbers if he gets the opportunity and he got some primo opportunity this year, just that Brock Lobster is worse than Brian Hoyer.
2015 was most likely the outlier season for him, and therefore expectations for him too high. He had 192 targets in 2015. That is a level of opportunity that even the elite WR cannot maintain from year to year.
There were no WR to have this many targets in 2016. The most targeted player was Mike Evans with 173 targets. 192 targets is obviously an outlier when some seasons (including the most recent one) zero players get that level of opportunity.
2016 Hopkins had 151 targets, so still the 7th in the league in terms of targets although 41 less opportunities than last season. Worse QB play is the main issue here. Hopkins in his 4th season declined in efficiency stats, such as catch percentage and yards per target. I put most of that on the QB play, more than Hopkins.
So Hopkins was not exposed or anything like that imo. They just had worse QB play and Hopkins regressing in terms of targets pretty normal as well, and not reflection of his talent, role or ability in the offense.
mashedbananas
Footballguy
So what is Aaron Rodgers worth in rookie picks?
steelers1080
Footballguy
For both (Depending on where they go in the draft):
- Yes - Cook/Fournette
- Yes - Cook/Fournette
- Yes - Williams
- Yes - Davis
- Yes - McCaffrey
- Yes - Foreman
- Yes - Mixon
- No
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I would trade 1.5 for Watkins without really thinking about it too much. I could see risking a higher pick up to 1.3. He's a better player than Williams. Yeah he gets hurt a lot. So far. He's also 23. Only what 16 months older than Williams.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Watkins could end up being better, but I'd rather gamble if Williams goes to a team with a good situation. All the above were based on where people fell. If Cook goes to the Rams, then I'd rather have Watkins since he'd never get #1 RB carries.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
80/1,100/6ish is my baseline for him. Certainly a bounce back, but not 111/1,500/11.
I currently put his value right around the 1.02, in terms of rookie picks. I'd love to call him a buy, but according to ADP/rankings, he's still a top 10 dynasty asset. You're not getting much of a discount, based on that.
FWIW, I moved Dez + L.Murray for him in season, prior to what appeared to be a friendly stretch of games. It didn't work out as I had hoped, but I'd still pull the trigger on that today.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
1.06, maybe? It's certainly a buyer's market. Most teams have a guy they feel good about already, and it's cheap enough to supplement that with immediate production (Brees/Brady/Ben) or upside (Mariota/Winston/Dak).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How do you value last years top WRs in 2017 draft picks?
I'm thinking, roughly:
Thomas - 1.03
Coleman - 1.05
Shepard - 1.07
Doctson - 1.10
Fuller - 1.12
Treadwell - Early 2nd
I'm thinking, roughly:
Thomas - 1.03
Coleman - 1.05
Shepard - 1.07
Doctson - 1.10
Fuller - 1.12
Treadwell - Early 2nd
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm guessing Dotson is Mitchell?
Honestly, I'm not sure I'd pursue any of them at those prices. I'd rather take my chances on this year's class if I owned those picks.
Thomas is intriguing of course, but I think he may be a bot overrated after last season. I'm not sure he can keep up that pace, even in that offense.
I'm also a fan of Shepard - but I think his ceiling may be a bit lower than some of the guy's available in this class in that range. With that said, In the league where I own him I'd likely not move him for that pick since he's a solid WR3/4 for me on that team and that's all I really need there.
Coleman, Mitchell and even Treadwell all still have potential of course, and I am not writing them off, and maybe I'm just falling for "shiny new toy" syndrome, but right now the unknown of a rookie this season at those picks just seems more intriguing to me.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Thomas is a safe bet to maintain his production short-term, personally. Maybe a slight dip, but I see a slight increase as even more likely. I'd agree that his current situation is inflating his value, relative to talent level. But it's hard not value another year or two of what I see as likely WR1 production. And after that, he'll be where Alshon is today. That justifies a top 3 pick, IMO. I wouldn't fault anyone for preferring Williams and/or Davis due to upside. But anything outside of the 1.04 and I think we're getting too cure.
I share your thoughts on Shepard. I think he's a Golden Tate level player. I really like his situation, however. I've been trying to move him where I own him, but no luck. I tried for 1.04, 1.05, 1.06 + 2.06 and didn't get a counter, even. But I him to be a long-term advantage at my flex spot, and that has value.
What's your take on Coleman?
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This seems spot on except for Thomas. His stats are in-line with Snead but with a few more targets, so I feel like he's just a product of Brees/Payton. I'd be a little gun shy about trading 1.05 for Coleman due to him missing basically half the season and thus we have a very small sample size for him and that sample is polluted by bad QBs. However, I think he's worth it. Like has been mentioned, Shepard doesn't have the WR1 upside allure, but I think his rookie year proved he's an NFL starter with "perennial fantasy WR2" written all over him. I'd definitely trade 1.07 for him. I agree he's a Tate level fantasy player, but I think a true NFL comparison would be pre-2015 Cobb (when he was consistent).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think there's a reason Thomas saw a lot more targets than Snead. Thomas outproduced Cooks and played in one less game. I think it's fair to say that Brees/Payton inflated his production, but I'm not willing to say it was a "product" of them.
Thomas got 8 targets per game, Snead got 7. Not exactly a lot more targets. I just don't expect him to ever catch 76% of his targets again, especially if Payton leaves NO and when Brees starts to decline. I won't be shocked if 2016 turns out to be Thomas' career year for fantasy purposes. (Not sure Snead ever sniffs 1000 yards again, either). I'm not much of a Cooks fan, so outproducing him doesn't mean a lot. Thomas appears to be a good player, but I wouldn't bet on him having a better career than someone like Shepard or Coleman.
bostonfred
Footballguy
2011 24/369/1
2012 80/954/8
2013 31/433/4
2014 91/1287/12
2015 79/829/6
2016 60/610/4
6 year career average 61/745/6
I think you mean his career year, 2014
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I guess I don't see what targets have to do with it, then. He was much more productive per target, and from week 3 on was clearly ahead of Snead in the pecking order.
He was great after the catch, showed great hands, and (from what I've read; not pretending to have watched the All-22) ran very good routes. I certainly agree that his rookie production is not a sign of his ceiling outside of his current situation, but with a 1 to 2 year head start (not counting 2016), I'd happily bet on Thomas over Shepard and Coleman. As of now, I'd include Williams and Davis on that list, but let's see what the pros think and how the landing spots look.
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One could argue he was just as much of an asset to Brees as vice versa. Thomas production seems to be getting marginalized as some as a product of the system. Brees is great, it's a great offense but let's delve into this some more.
Thomas, as best I can recall, just had the best fantasy season of Saints WR in the Brees/Payton era and he just did it in 15 games as a rookie. So right there we can start with notion he's better than what Saints have had at WR in this era, not someone just made to look good by Brees.
Now Brees is incredibly accurate so tendency to see Thomas 76% catch rate and think it's Brees. For sure Brees helps big time, but Brees completion rate when not throwing to Thomas drops about 8% vs when he throws to Thomas. So ok, people probably assume he just ran a lot of shorter routes and made easier throws. Brees YPA jumps up a whopping 2 yards per attempt more when throwing to Thomas vs anyone else. Now next thing people might want to mention is that of course your yards per catch/attempt should be higher when you are catching a higher percentage of passes but just on catches made Brees is getting 1.5 yards more to completion to Thomas than to rest of team.
Maybe people should start trying to wrap their heads around fact that Thomas just happens to be a bona fide NFL stud WR who happens to also have luxury of playing with a future HOF QB.
If I'm looking at last years draft as a re-do he's pick 1.2. Coleman for me would be pick 5 or 6. In this years draft 1.3 seems about right.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Game to game he was pretty consistent once he became a reliable starter in 2012 through the end of 2014. Just not consistent in putting together a whole season.
He was still mostly a prospect heading into 2012 and didn't really play a ton early on. He essentially had 70-860-8 over his last 12 games in 2012, then had 31-433-4 in 6 games in an injury shortened 2013, and then the big year in 2014. Those are all pretty similar on a ppg basis. He was never consistent season to season, but on a game by game basis he was actually scoring essentially the same (slightly less) from his breakout in week 5 of 2012 through the end of 2014.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
To add, PFF graded Thomas as a top 10 WR, credited him with 20 broken tackles and only 4 drops on 121 targets. He was second in Football Outsiders DVOA and his EffYards were a good deal higher than his actual yards. I don't take PFF grades as gospel and DVOA isn't a perfect metric--but good signs.
It's still hard for me to make the call on the Brees/Payton impact, but he's player.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I wasn't quite as high on him as others coming into the league, and it's hard to really glean much from an injury plagued year in a bad offense. Personally I'd rather have Williams, Davis or Mixon with the 1.05, but I could see me having some interest with any pick after that.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Colston's 2nd year was better than Thomas this year. Cooks' 2nd year was essentially identical (Thomas outscored him by 2 fantasy points). If we expand to TE's Graham had a much better year, and he's not exactly lighting the league up without Brees.
And what does the best Saints WR of this era really say anyway? They've been pretty terrible there, all in all. Not just a bunch of bad fits either, as all of these guys have been worse at their next destination than they were in New Orleans. Is there a single guy that has put up better numbers without Brees/Payton than they put up with them? What would Marques Colston have been without them?
That's not to say that Thomas isn't just a great WR that happens to have ended up with a HoF QB, just that I'm not buying a good year as any proof of that yet. Doing well with Brees is a nice start, but he's far from the first, and every one of those guys has been a lot worse without Brees than he was with him.
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I like Thomas a lot but Colston put up better numbers multiple times and missed games doing it as well. Colston's rookie year was pretty comparable as well. In fact looking back, Colston's numbers were pretty consistently at the same stat line that Thomas just posted especially when you pro-rate since Colston missed games nearly every year. Graham had some huge years as a TE too.menobrown said:
Edit; or what FreeBaGel said.
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Sorry but can't say Colstons year was better but Cooks was essentially identical. If anything say they were all identical but on per target basis Thomas was better across the board.FreeBaGeL said:
Funny to me you say what does best Saints era WR have to do with this and than introduce a TE into the conversation??? If you really want to break down Grahams post-Brees production you'll find a player who has actually increased his catch to target completion percentage and his yards per catch and doing most of this coming off a torn patella tendon. He just does not get same targets and high targets are not something in Thomas favor right now either.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Good call on Colston's career year. (Although, the advanced metrics still favor Thomas' season by a fair amount.) Accounting for Thomas' missed game, his season comes in at #2. But we're talking about a 10 year stretch--so that's impressive.FreeBaGeL said:
You make a good point on Jimmy Graham, but utilization is so important when it comes to TE production. Of course his numbers were going to drastically drop going from the slot in NO to inline in SEA. I still think Jimmy Graham is an elite receiving TE, so I don't see that dip as a comment on him as a player. Granted, he was never likely to maintain his NO production, which I believe was your point. Still, slightly different for TEs.
I meant as a player, not as fantasy production. Shepard will never approach Cobb's 2014 production unless he gets traded to Green Bay within the next 2 years. I could see Shepard reaching 127 targets, but Eli targets just aren't as good as Rodgers targets.bostonfred said:
They were both putting up 12.4 ypr and Snead is a mediocre talent. I was just highlighting what Brees/Payton can do to inflate value. Just like I think last year might be Thomas' career year, I think 2015 and 2016 will be the high water marks for Snead's career. I just think that situation is all too often ignored when people compare players. I think 2016 is possibly the best situation Thomas will ever be in. As a slot guy, I don't think he's as versatile as Shepard or Coleman, so given unknown future situations, I'd bet on those two guys. But like you said, I'm no expert either.Concept Coop said:
Colston had about 5-6 years that were similar or better. So we can stop with that notion.menobrown said:
And yes, of course Brees' catch rate declines when not throwing to a guy that had a possible outlier of a catch rate this year. And of course Brees' YPA jumps when throwing to Thomas because that's yards per attempt, not yards per reception, thus when someone has a ridiculous catch rate, they accumulate more yards per attempt while not actually doing anything special after the catch. I'd assume his yards per reception is right in line with everyone else.
I addressed every thing you just said already as I knew someone would bring it up. As I said, his yards per catch, not just attempt but catch, was 1.5 yards higher than when throwing to rest of the team.
As for Colston I'll grant that despite needing 20 something more targets he had one year he was better, I missed that but I can concede Colston's raw numbers were better that year. I think you could also say 2012 was close and 2011 pretty close but only one year I thought could be termed better. If we looked at this as fantasy points per target Colston's best year was his 4th season where he had 2.18 per target which is only season he outdid Thomas.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Not per target; make of that what you will. Looking again, it doesn't appear that a recent Saints receiver has ever been more productive per target, and that includes Graham. Thomas' catch rate wouldn't hold outside of his current situation, but as we're comparing him to guys in similar situations, I don't think we should write it off. The guy has great (and big) hands.
Fun conversation.
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Except that's wrong. Cooks = 15.0 ypc, Snead = 12.4 ypc, Thomas = 12.4 ypc. You must be including the RBs and TEs who had shorter aDoT.
Scoring system also impacts Colston's ppg. If we're just talking about things that matter in rea life (yards and TDs) then several of Colston's years were better. Either way, this is kind of a trivial argument.
I had just mentioned this in a previous post and many ways to look at per target production but since my interest is fantasy that's what I tend to hone in on. So in terms of PPR format Coltsons 4th season, where he only got 106 targets I think, was his best season for per target fantasy production and one season he was better than Thomas. Colston was 2.18, Thomas was 2.14. That, like Colstons second year vs Thomas rookie season, is close to being equal but techincally Colston was better.
So if you want to use raw total season production while it was close and they had several other years of Colstons career I thought close I only saw one year which Colston was better if you look at just production and one year he was better if you want to use metric of fantasy production per target. Either way I own mistake of saying Thomas had best season of Saints WR in this era, more like second best depending on how you look at it but a lot of really similar seasons.
Again, we need to see if that 76% catch rate was an aberration. Because right now it's a bit of a chicken/egg argument here. Whenever you see a crazy catch rate like that you're always going to see great per target numbers.
Sorry if it's boring. I wasn't trying to get into Thomas so much. I was just commenting on the values.
I'm talking about Brees yards per attempt when throwing to everyone else versus Thomas. So no, I"m not wrong. And yes the RB's and TE's had shorter aDot which would mean if I include all passes Brees threw to people other than Thomas it would stand to reason he had lower completion percentgage, except it went up 8% instead.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't know that I completely disagree, but I'm not going to assume it's an aberration. Compared to other Saints WRs of the last 10 years, it sticks out. I think that's a testament to Thomas, even if it dips a bit moving forward.
I wasn't being facetious--I'm enjoying the conversation.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
12 team dynasty value question for FFPC. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex.
I am speaking here about the combination of Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. If you had another decent QB on your team and are competing but also looking to swap Nelson for a high end younger piece, what ONE player would you be willing to take for these two players. Please be realistic, cause you most likely aren't getting OBJ, Elliot, Bell..............at least I wouldn't think so.
On the flip side, if you are looking to make a push and need a QB, what is the best ONE player you would be willing to move for both guys?
I have no idea where ROdgers and Nelson are going to go in startup drafts. Trade value and start up value are not always super similar, especially with QBs, but I would imagine it's at least a starting point to try and figure out the total value if you are going to try and negotiate with someone.
I am speaking here about the combination of Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson. If you had another decent QB on your team and are competing but also looking to swap Nelson for a high end younger piece, what ONE player would you be willing to take for these two players. Please be realistic, cause you most likely aren't getting OBJ, Elliot, Bell..............at least I wouldn't think so.
On the flip side, if you are looking to make a push and need a QB, what is the best ONE player you would be willing to move for both guys?
I have no idea where ROdgers and Nelson are going to go in startup drafts. Trade value and start up value are not always super similar, especially with QBs, but I would imagine it's at least a starting point to try and figure out the total value if you are going to try and negotiate with someone.
What's everyone's explanation on Treadwell not getting on the field as a rookie? I see him being priced as a late 1st/early 2nd round rookie pick and that is assuming he wasn't able to grasp the offense etc. But imo it's more likely the coaches being dumb (an old school coach not giving playing time to a rookie, making him "earn it")
Why even bother comparing ypa of a WR to RBs and TEs? It's such a slanted argument. You seem to be here purely hunting for confirmation bias. Want me to just tell you Thomas is the greatest of all time? The truth is we don't have enough information but you seem intent on creating a narrative that he's definitely some special talent.
Well, I don't want to assume one way or another, but when doing redraft and/or dynasty startups we all have to pick a side and right now I lean towards aberration. Out of 12 people in any given league I'm sure somebody is going to be 100% sure his 1st year was just the beginning for him and he'll continue to gain fantasy momentum, so I'm already just writing him off as if he'll be on zero of my teams next year. Too much risk - catch rate normalizing, new coach/system, Brees' age...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Speaking of startups, it's obviously early, but is there any data on this anywhere?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Dynastly League Football does mock drafts every month and generates startup ADPs from them. I believe it's pay content, however. Not sure of anything else, this early.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think it's a big red flag, personally. Not sure what's going on, but it's a bad sign. I like Zimmer and would give him the benefit of the doubt. Especially considering that when we did see Treadwell on the field, he was running the wrong routes. I'm not completely writing him off, but am not really looking to buy at his reduced price either. I wasn't especially high on him during rookie drafts, FWIW.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'd do a dynasty start up mock with commentary if anyone else wants to join.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I will just provide commentary 
Warhogs
Footballguy
My biggest concern with Treadwell is that Diggs seems to be locked in at a WR and Thielen is probably locked in at the other spot. Thielen played really well. I don't see any immediate opportunity for Treadwell so I would avoid him.
I don't remember any pre-draft concerns regarding Treadwell not being smart/focused enough to pick up the playbook, and it's not like his routes were ugly.
Actually after digging into it a bit more, I'm leaning toward Zimmer just being a nut. The below is from a preseason article. Bottom line for me is I think his value is roughly what it was as an incoming rookie, with maybe a slight hit due to opportunity concerns.
