Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[Concept Coop]

25 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Moss's last good season came at age 32. If Green ages as well as Moss then his last good season will be in 2020.

I could be way off, but I think I remember feeling like Moss was done mentally before he was physically, that he could have continued playing at a high level if he cared to, but he mailed it in. I could certainly be misremembering or could have been wrong about that at the time.

[Zyphros]

42 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Moss's last good season came at age 32. If Green ages as well as Moss then his last good season will be in 2020.

Different era and all players generally play a little longer, so add a year or 2.  Green has had no substantial injuries to date either, unless you count the torn hamstring, which I don't call that major.  

13 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I could be way off, but I think I remember feeling like Moss was done mentally before he was physically, that he could have continued playing at a high level if he cared to, but he mailed it in. I could certainly be misremembering or could have been wrong about that at the time.

I had that same impression I believe when he left the Pats.  It was either that or coaches didn't use him in the same way, and production dropped off a cliff.  

Whatever the case, I feel like AJ has 2-3 more WR1 type years in front of him, and possibly more.  

[NeverEnough]

Price check on Doctson. I have an owner trying to get him from me, but don't know what sort of ask is fair. PPR.

[tombonneau]

2 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

Price check on Doctson. I have an owner trying to get him from me, but don't know what sort of ask is fair. PPR.

Try this thought exercise: If Doctson had been in your free agent pool for your rookie draft, where would you have taken him? That spot tells you how much you value him. Personally, I'd have considered him somewhere in mid-second, after Miller but before Pettis.

[NeverEnough]

11 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

Try this thought exercise: If Doctson had been in your free agent pool for your rookie draft, where would you have taken him? That spot tells you how much you value him. Personally, I'd have considered him somewhere in mid-second, after Miller but before Pettis.

About where I value him. I turned down Doyle for him a minute ago.

[NeverEnough]

How does the community feel about Doctson vs Crowder?

Also, has Hunt secured the job or will Ware still get some significant work?

[Andy Dufresne]

3 minutes ago, Magic_Man said:

How does the community feel about Doctson vs Crowder?

Also, has Hunt secured the job or will Ware still get some significant work?

Really?

[NeverEnough]

56 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Really?

I worded it badly, but we know what I mean.

[Dan Hindery]

On 6/21/2018 at 3:00 PM, tangfoot said:

Sure, Green's game could make it another 4 years, but what about Dalton, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals offensive line?  Older players get punished in dynasty startups, but I think the reticence to draft Green is due to things that affect the team/situation.

Maybe a homer take, but the OL should be mostly fixed. Cordy Glenn is a proven talent at LT and first-round centers (Billy Price) have hit at a really high rate in recent years, so have to feel pretty good there. Considering all the offensive issues last season, Dalton actually played ok. 

I think Green has a big season and that he'll age relatively well. I think he's a nice trade target after his birthday this summer when he turns 30. I still wouldn't take him in the 2nd round of a startup though. Taking 30-year-olds that high leaves you bleeding value. 

[Dr. Octopus]

13 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

I worded it badly, but we know what I mean.

I don't think it was your wording that was surprising - I think the answer is pretty obvious no matter how you present the question.

Hunt is the bell-cow back in KC. Ware may potentially see more work than Charcandrick West did (or he may not make the team) in the back-up role but in any case his workload will not be significant. 

[Andrew74]

On 6/22/2018 at 11:26 AM, Magic_Man said:

Price check on Doctson. I have an owner trying to get him from me, but don't know what sort of ask is fair. PPR.

I have someone sniffing around for him and my thought was a mid 2nd. 

[NeverEnough]

I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.

[NeverEnough]

On 6/28/2018 at 9:44 PM, Andrew74 said:

I have someone sniffing around for him and my thought was a mid 2nd. 

He tried Doyle & Crowder for my Doctson & Ware. I declined.

[fruity pebbles]

15 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.

Very light

[Blick]

16 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.

Reading posts about JuJu’s value, I realize that I might be overvaluing him a little.  However, I would not trade him straight up for anyone in this draft other than Barkley. Coming out of his rookie year, he’s as close to can’t miss stud as we’ve seen in some time at WR and that’s where I’d currently value him. A young WR1. 

[Dez]

JuJu was traded in 1 of my leagues twice a couple months ago.

JuJu + 2019 1st + 2019 3rd for Landry

Then JuJu traded for a 2019 1st

[JPeso]

2 hours ago, Dez said:

JuJu was traded in 1 of my leagues twice a couple months ago.

JuJu + 2019 1st + 2019 3rd for Landry

Then JuJu traded for a 2019 1st

Those are both terrible.

[Andrew74]

22 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

He tried Doyle & Crowder for my Doctson & Ware. I declined.

He offered to swap 2019 3rds.  I said I’d take a 2019 2nd (playoff team) and a 2019 3rd (top half) and he thought that was ridiculous.  Guess he’s staying on my roster.  

[NeverEnough]

2 hours ago, Andrew74 said:

He offered to swap 2019 3rds.  I said I’d take a 2019 2nd (playoff team) and a 2019 3rd (top half) and he thought that was ridiculous.  Guess he’s staying on my roster.  

Same here.

[Zyphros]

Rank these guys please:  I expect very different results but they seem to be going in rounds 2-4 range in startups.

Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill

[tangfoot]

3 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Rank these guys please:  I expect very different results but they seem to be going in rounds 2-4 range in startups.

Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill

In order of who I want going forward:

JuJu

Cooper

Hill

Robinson

[FF Ninja]

40 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Rank these guys please:  I expect very different results but they seem to be going in rounds 2-4 range in startups.

Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill

Robinson - most complete WR
Cooper - has some warts, but good size and speed
Tyreek - enticing, but small and still has work to do on his game
JuJu - possible mirage, need to see more 

Disclaimer: would not heavily target any of them in a startup

[menobrown]

40 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

In order of who I want going forward:

JuJu

Cooper

Hill

Robinson

Cooper

Hill

JuJu

Robinson

 

[Pwingles]

Pick a side. 12 team PPR

Nuk, C. Hyde

Gurley, Kirk

[Concept Coop]

5 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

Pick a side. 12 team PPR

Nuk, C. Hyde

Gurley, Kirk

Gurley and Kirk for me, but it’s essentially a coin flip.

[smbkrypt24]

1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Rank these guys please:  I expect very different results but they seem to be going in rounds 2-4 range in startups.

Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill

I'm going:

Hill

Cooper

Robinson

JuJu

[Gottabesweet]

Who are the players on your roster that you are having the most difficulty shopping/selling?

For me it's:   Eifert (finally sold) but took forever for obvious injury concerns.  Targeted a team that missed out on rookie TE's in the draft.

Collins, AJ Green, Kelan Cole are tough sells as well.  Started to shop Julio but my price is high.

 

 

[smbkrypt24]

1 minute ago, Gottabesweet said:

Who are the players on your roster that you are having the most difficulty shopping/selling?

For me it's:   Eifert (finally sold) but took forever for obvious injury concerns.  Targeted a team that missed out on rookie TE's in the draft.

Collins, AJ Green, Kelan Cole are tough sells as well.  Started to shop Julio but my price is high.

 

 

Currently, the players I have had trouble selling are Ware and J. Hill.  I tried to shop Ware to Hunt owner, but they don't think he will make the roster.  Same owner owned Burkhead and he believed the same of J. Hill.  The second one he might be right on due to the small contract and Patriots drafting Michel.  I am highly surprised he thought Ware wouldn't even make the team.

[Gottabesweet]

Just now, smbkrypt24 said:

Currently, the players I have had trouble selling are Ware and J. Hill.  I tried to shop Ware to Hunt owner, but they don't think he will make the roster.  Same owner owned Burkhead and he believed the same of J. Hill.  The second one he might be right on due to the small contract and Patriots drafting Michel.  I am highly surprised he thought Ware wouldn't even make the team.

Yeah if I owned those players, I would only maybe be offering a pick upgrade in the mid-later rounds. But its something for sure.

 

[smbkrypt24]

2 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Yeah if I owned those players, I would only maybe be offering a pick upgrade in the mid-later rounds. But its something for sure.

 

I'm happy to sit on both to see if they have a role.  small chance, but like you said worth something.  Eifert for your player hard to trade I actually traded for.  He is from my hometown city and think I value him more than everyone else.

[Buckna]

2 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Currently, the players I have had trouble selling are Ware and J. Hill.  I tried to shop Ware to Hunt owner, but they don't think he will make the roster.  Same owner owned Burkhead and he believed the same of J. Hill.  The second one he might be right on due to the small contract and Patriots drafting Michel.  I am highly surprised he thought Ware wouldn't even make the team.

I don't know if I would go so far as to say I expect Ware to not make the team, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's cut either. Coming off an injury, no guaranteed money with a sizeable 1.5M base, last year of his contract. They signed Damien Williams, Kerwyn Williams, Darrel Williams and kicked the tires on Rawls and some others. I would expect that it is likely that one of West or Ware will be gone for the cap savings and it will probably come down to who is healthiest among all those guys. Once this situation settles, I might be interested in Ware then as a Hunt owner.

Edited July 6, 2018 by Buckna

[kutta]

5 hours ago, tangfoot said:

In order of who I want going forward:

JuJu

Cooper

Hill

Robinson

this is exactly my order

[Jello_Biafra]

6 hours ago, tangfoot said:

In order of who I want going forward:

JuJu

Cooper

Hill

Robinson

Yeah.

[voiceofunreason]

9 hours ago, tangfoot said:

In order of who I want going forward:

JuJu

Cooper

Hill

Robinson

Hill

juju

robinson

cooper

[Biabreakable]

7 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Currently, the players I have had trouble selling are Ware and J. Hill.  I tried to shop Ware to Hunt owner, but they don't think he will make the roster.  Same owner owned Burkhead and he believed the same of J. Hill.  The second one he might be right on due to the small contract and Patriots drafting Michel.  I am highly surprised he thought Ware wouldn't even make the team.

If Ware didn't make the team because he sucks, yes that would be bad.I don't think he sucks though, so him going to another team might actually be a positive for his outlook.

Damien Williams is a decent utility RB and KC did also sign Kerwynn Williams from the Cardinals as well as West. So it is possible I suppose.

 

[Acrobat7]

What are you getting offered for Brady, or what do you think is a fair value (pick or player)? I‘m talking 1QB PPR dynasty here.

I took over a team which won‘t be competing this year or the next, so I was thinking about offering him to some contenders. 

[tombonneau]

1 hour ago, Acrobat7 said:

What are you getting offered for Brady, or what do you think is a fair value (pick or player)? I‘m talking 1QB PPR dynasty here.

I took over a team which won‘t be competing this year or the next, so I was thinking about offering him to some contenders. 

I think he should be worth a first to a contender weak at QB. But we play in a QB friendly league, depends on how a top 3 QB is valued in your league. 

[Snorkelson]

On 7/6/2018 at 0:51 PM, Gottabesweet said:

Who are the players on your roster that you are having the most difficulty shopping/selling?

For me it's:   Eifert (finally sold) but took forever for obvious injury concerns.  Targeted a team that missed out on rookie TE's in the draft.

Collins, AJ Green, Kelan Cole are tough sells as well.  Started to shop Julio but my price is high.

 

 

Dez

robert woods

dixon

[voiceofunreason]

5 hours ago, tombonneau said:

I think he should be worth a first to a contender weak at QB. But we play in a QB friendly league, depends on how a top 3 QB is valued in your league. 

A 2nd at the most.

[tombonneau]

2 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

A 2nd at the most.

Like I said depends on the league. In ours he would go for first easy. But people go Lady Gaga for QBs. 

[joey]

6 hours ago, Acrobat7 said:

What are you getting offered for Brady, or what do you think is a fair value (pick or player)? I‘m talking 1QB PPR dynasty here.

I took over a team which won‘t be competing this year or the next, so I was thinking about offering him to some contenders. 

If you can wait (or don’t get a reasonable offer now) , hold a Win Now player like Brady til week 4 or 5, and hopefully there’s a team in contention that needs a top QB to put them over the top. That’ll be selling for max value.

[barackdhouse]

I can't move Brady. Everyone in the two leagues I own him in knows he is available. Not so much as a nibble. Not even a lowball offer. I get lowball offers for other guys all the time. If I add Brady into a larger deal it kills it. In FFPC, though, so it's hard to carry more than one QB. Probably holding until he retires.

[JPeso]

11 minutes ago, joey said:

If you can wait (or don’t get a reasonable offer now) , hold a Win Now player like Brady til week 4 or 5, and hopefully there’s a team in contention that needs a top QB to put them over the top. That’ll be selling for max value.

Only downside is if the best teams already are getting good QB play, then you risk getting nothing because there are only a couple buyers to begin with. In theory you are right but holding does not always work out in an established league. If the playoff teams are led by Wentz Cam Rodgers Brees maybe even a couple other guys who will be run-rating like Brady or close to it, they won’t be giving you more than a mid to late 2nd if that

[JPeso]

2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I can't move Brady. Everyone in the two leagues I own him in knows he is available. Not so much as a nibble. Not even a lowball offer. I get lowball offers for other guys all the time. If I add Brady into a larger deal it kills it. In FFPC, though, so it's hard to carry more than one QB. Probably holding until he retires.

I have Brady in only 1 league, which as you point out FFPC leagues do not value bench QBs, and that is exactly the plan to ride him until retirement. Find someone when I need to 

[joey]

10 minutes ago, JPeso said:

Only downside is if the best teams already are getting good QB play, then you risk getting nothing because there are only a couple buyers to begin with. In theory you are right but holding does not always work out in an established league. If the playoff teams are led by Wentz Cam Rodgers Brees maybe even a couple other guys who will be run-rating like Brady or close to it, they won’t be giving you more than a mid to late 2nd if that

Mid to late 2nd for Brady sounds great. Offer accepted

[JPeso]

13 minutes ago, joey said:

Mid to late 2nd for Brady sounds great. Offer accepted

That’s kind of my point, if that’s the best you get mid season, better off taking a late 2nd valuation/equal player now which I think is doable because you have more trade partners, some of which have false hope 

[joey]

Just now, JPeso said:

That’s kind of my point, if that’s the best you get mid season, better off taking a late 2nd valuation/equal player now which I think is doable because you have more trade partners, some of which have false hope 

Ah. Got it.  Fair enough.

Yeah, all these trade value discussions are meaningless if you can’t find an actual trade partner in an actual league you’re in. So trying to trade now when there are theoretically more potential tide partners makes sense. 

[Hankmoody]

23 hours ago, JPeso said:

That’s kind of my point, if that’s the best you get mid season, better off taking a late 2nd valuation/equal player now which I think is doable because you have more trade partners, some of which have false hope 

That's why I don't draft rookie QB's in 1 QB leagues.  Too many guys are holding onto their Trubisky/Dak/Winston dreams and are making room for them by dumping guys like Brady, Rivers, and Big Ben for peanuts.  I have plenty of peanuts for those guys, I would rather carry guys like RSJ or Keelan Cole and hope for the next Robby Anderson or Adam Thielen (who I can then trade for Brady +). 

Except Lamar Jackson.  I have mad lust for him because I love his ceiling.

[menobrown]

On 7/8/2018 at 1:05 PM, barackdhouse said:

I can't move Brady. Everyone in the two leagues I own him in knows he is available. Not so much as a nibble. Not even a lowball offer. I get lowball offers for other guys all the time. If I add Brady into a larger deal it kills it. In FFPC, though, so it's hard to carry more than one QB. Probably holding until he retires.

I did a startup an FFPC startup in 2013 and got Brady in the 12th round as my QB1 because of his age, just shows how lightly valued QB's are in that format. I still have him on that team and just plan to ride him out till the end. Got another FFPC league I dealt him for a second near trade deadline last year to contending team with some QB issues, pick ended up being 2.2 and that's more then I would have thought I could get for him but  when the trade was made I just knew it was a second, could have been much later.

My take is your best bet to move someone like him is if you can get a situation like I encountered last year with a contending team in need of a QB.  That was going around a good amount last year due to QB injuries so not sure that same chance will present itself this year.

In FFPC leagues this offseason I saw Big Ben, Goff, Ryan, Rivers, Dak and Winston all just flat cut and that's just off the top of my head what I can recall.  Almost every year you can nab a Rivers, Big Ben type in  round 4 of your rookie draft. I got Big Ben at 5.11 of one this year. Hard to get a big price on Qb's in that market, at least until need comes creeping on a contending team or you got a QB viewed as a true difference maker or someone who looks like long term top 5 lock guy.

[barackdhouse]

8 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I did a startup an FFPC startup in 2013 and got Brady in the 12th round as my QB1 because of his age, just shows how lightly valued QB's are in that format. I still have him on that team and just plan to ride him out till the end. Got another FFPC league I dealt him for a second near trade deadline last year to contending team with some QB issues, pick ended up being 2.2 and that's more then I would have thought I could get for him but  when the trade was made I just knew it was a second, could have been much later.

My take is your best bet to move someone like him is if you can get a situation like I encountered last year with a contending team in need of a QB.  That was going around a good amount last year due to QB injuries so not sure that same chance will present itself this year.

In FFPC leagues this offseason I saw Big Ben, Goff, Ryan, Rivers, Dak and Winston all just flat cut and that's just off the top of my head what I can recall.  Almost every year you can nab a Rivers, Big Ben type in  round 4 of your rookie draft. I got Big Ben at 5.11 of one this year. Hard to get a big price on Qb's in that market, at least until need comes creeping on a contending team or you got a QB viewed as a true difference maker or someone who looks like long term top 5 lock guy.

Yeah I picked up Rodgers in a deal last year and then at cut down time I only kept him as my one QB. Someone gave me grief about it and offered a couple QBs so that I would have a backup (so nice for him to be concerned). I declined and then drafted Eli in the 6th round. But yeah Ben, Dalton, a bunch of others were/are available on waivers. Some teams are holding 4 QBs. I don't get it.