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Fanduel Week 8 (1 Viewer)

Murray got faded hard!  based on what my games show.   Less than 10% owned
I didn't believe you so I had to poke around myself.  :shock:

Looks like what reel smooth posted above, the more "cash" the game was, the lower owned he was.  I had him in about 30 entries last night.  The highest I saw him in a 2x or 50/50 was 14%, and that was just once.  Most of the time it was right around 10% and dipped as low as 6-7% on a couple as well.  The 5xs and Mini Dives I was in were the opposite, 20% in the 5xs, and 25%+ in the Dives.  Weird. 

I guess people were playing that to get Tenn D in there, because the numbers for them were the opposite.  I was seeing ownerships of 17-20% in cash games and 10% and under in the gpps. 

On a side note, I need to stop playing not great Ds vs. not great Os.  Def is one position that I haven't been able to get right this year besides the one KC call when they had a huge game.   I didn't see a lot I liked this week as a lot of the good Ds were on the road and not great matchups - Az, Seattle, Philly.  Maybe I should have just gone with 100% Minn D?

 
Was looking at the Fantasy Aces owership % for their gpp this morning HERE

Booker at 72%?  :lol:

Surprises at <10% that should be looked at with gpp maybe?

QB:

Brady - come on, it's Tom ####in' Brady.  I get it, he is the hardest of the elite to get a stack going for, but maybe have some naked Brady? :wub:

Brees/Winston - Wilson was just under 10%, but Brees at 3?  I get that Seattle is a good D, but on the road, Brees' Superdome mojo, and Seattle has been had by teams with multiple weapons and a good QB.  This was one of the games I was looking at hard, and surprised to see the lower ownership. 

Fitzpatrick - Come on, it's the Browns, and the beard is pissed off.  It's been a long time since the Browns haven't let 300yds or multiple TD in for a game. 

RB:

Blount - 4%.  I think people are too much into the "we don't know what is going on with the NE Rbs" mentality.  Blount still gets his.  If Waldman's article comes true, it's the week where teams play man that are Blount weeks, and that is this week.  Dodds' game predictor has NE going for 120 yds, and the Buff D is middle of the road or worse vs. run: 12th most RB pts allowed, 6th most yds/game, and in the middle for yds/attempt. 

L.Miller - I am sure this was a bit to do with the injury uncertainty, and more than a bit to do with the turd Houst dropped in Denver all around.  Det's rush D is middle of the road at best. 

WR:

This could be a fun week for the WRs, just like last week it might be dominated by a handful of guys with good matchups as Evans, Montgomery, Hilton, Julio, Cooper, Marshall were all over 10%.  That leaves a ton of options left.  This looks like another week to stay pretty chalk at Rb and try some different WRs.  Like with the Brees selection, there wasn't a NO WR more than 3% owned here.  You can do a lot worse than sticking with that David/Booker combo and throwing a Brees/Cooks stack in there just based on their home production and high o/u. 

Based on the Ds they are going against, it might be time to fire up guys like Hopkins/Fuller or Diggs.  Maybe even throw in a guy coming off injury like Dez or Moncrief?

TE:

Glad to see my boy CJ F getting some love here.  Other low owned guys that stood out: Rudolph, Fleener, and the NE TEs. 

 
Yep,Murray only 7% owned in my 50/50 and hardly anyone used Thurs players for a change so Im tied for 4th with 6 others.

noticed I have an entry for the detroit sportsrich showdown, Did everyone with an nfl team nearby get one of theses? 50k max entries winner gets tix to lions vs bears and 2-5 get 4800 FD points.

 
There isn't nearly enough Matt Ryan and Brandon Marshall love in here this week. These guys are going to crush it. Throw in Booker and Julio and the lineup kind of builds itself. #analysis

 
Yep,Murray only 7% owned in my 50/50 and hardly anyone used Thurs players for a change so Im tied for 4th with 6 others.

noticed I have an entry for the detroit sportsrich showdown, Did everyone with an nfl team nearby get one of theses? 50k max entries winner gets tix to lions vs bears and 2-5 get 4800 FD points.
Ya I got one for Chargers.  I put in a crappy team so I don't win and am forced to go watch them play ;)

 
anyone play a lot of h2h?  ive been seeing its good to reduce variance as opposed to just all 50/50s, but do you just open your own for anyone to join or are you supposed to join open ones hoping to find less experienced guys?

 
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There isn't nearly enough Matt Ryan and Brandon Marshall love in here this week. These guys are going to crush it. Throw in Booker and Julio and the lineup kind of builds itself. #analysis
Oh, trust me - I got a serious man-crush on Ryan & Marshall this week; Enunwa too. A GPP w/ Fitz & Mashall is definitely in play - Ryan a must in cash. 

 
anyone play a lot of h2h?  ive been seeing its good to reduce variance as opposed to just all 50/50s, but do you just open your own for anyone to join or are you supposed to join open ones hoping to find less experienced guys?
Any h2h I post on FD is scooped up by a player with the highly experienced badge within minutes (at most). If you post a bunch at a time then the first "shark" to notice will scoop all your games instantly. The only way I can get H2Hs against people without thousands of wins is to scroll through the entire H2H lobby every once in a while hoping to find 1 or 2 less experienced guys. Also gotta stick to the $1-$2 games. It's much easier on DK where you can keep each opponent from taking more than 1 of your h2hs. IMO it's easier to beat the single entry 50/50s than h2hs.

 
I do have a blue badge myself so that probably makes a difference if you dont, but when I post 25-50 H2H contests at a time I notice that I get alot of opponents without badges.  They never fill and I end up getting auto matched with whoever else also has contests posted, but the opponents prior to lock are a pretty even 50/50 split.  I also have a non-descript bot-esq user name and a ridiculous picture of Richard Nixon so that might help too.

 
Highest-owned guys in Thursday GPPs on FantasyDraft this week:


Quarterback


Own %


Matt Ryan


16


Jameis Winston


13


Andrew Luck


9


Aaron Rodgers


9


Tom Brady


7


Matthew Stafford


5


Derek Carr


4


Drew Brees


3


Cam Newton


2


Russell Wilson


2


Dak Prescott


2


Brock Osweiler


2




Running Back


Own %


Devontae Booker


59


Spencer Ware


39


David Johnson


34


Devonta Freeman


24


Ezekiel Elliott


22


Jacquizz Rodgers


19


Christine Michael


12


Melvin Gordon


8


Matt Forte


8


Latavius Murray


8


Matt Asiata


6


LeGarrette Blount


6




Wide Receiver


Own %


Mike Evans


47


Julio Jones


32


Ty Montgomery


21


T.Y. Hilton


16


Davante Adams


9


Michael Crabtree


9


Doug Baldwin


8


Amari Cooper


6


Michael Thomas


6


Brandon Marshall


6


DeAndre Hopkins


6


Golden Tate


5


Stefon Diggs


5


Randall Cobb


4


Emmanuel Sanders


4


Will Fuller


4


Larry Fitzgerald


3


Jordy Nelson


3


Cole Beasley


3


Willie Snead


2


Marvin Jones


2




Tight End


Own %


C.J. Fiedorowicz


18


Rob Gronkowski


14


Jack Doyle


14


Jimmy Graham


10


Kyle Rudolph


8


Gary Barnidge


6


Greg Olsen


6


Travis Kelce


5


Cameron Brate


3


Antonio Gates


2


Martellus Bennett


2




Defense


Own %


Minnesota Vikings


24


Denver Broncos


8


NY Jets


6


Arizona Cardinals


6


Seattle Seahawks


5


Dallas Cowboys


4


New England Patriots


3


Philadelphia Eagles


3


Cleveland Browns


2


San Diego Chargers


2


Tampa Bay Buccaneers


2




 
Darius Slay is out,  definitely gonna have more exposure to Hopkins then i was thinking to start the week

 
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Any h2h I post on FD is scooped up by a player with the highly experienced badge within minutes (at most). If you post a bunch at a time then the first "shark" to notice will scoop all your games instantly. The only way I can get H2Hs against people without thousands of wins is to scroll through the entire H2H lobby every once in a while hoping to find 1 or 2 less experienced guys. Also gotta stick to the $1-$2 games. It's much easier on DK where you can keep each opponent from taking more than 1 of your h2hs. IMO it's easier to beat the single entry 50/50s than h2hs.
H2hs on fanduel are so tilting. I don't understand why they don't put a matchup limiter. I gave up on even trying. 

 
Highest-owned guys in Thursday GPPs on FantasyDraft this week:


Quarterback


Own %


Matt Ryan


16


Jameis Winston


13


Andrew Luck


9


Aaron Rodgers


9


Tom Brady


7


Matthew Stafford


5


Derek Carr


4


Drew Brees


3


Cam Newton


2


Russell Wilson


2


Dak Prescott


2


Brock Osweiler


2




Running Back


Own %


Devontae Booker


59


Spencer Ware


39


David Johnson


34


Devonta Freeman


24


Ezekiel Elliott


22


Jacquizz Rodgers


19


Christine Michael


12


Melvin Gordon


8


Matt Forte


8


Latavius Murray


8


Matt Asiata


6


LeGarrette Blount


6




Wide Receiver


Own %


Mike Evans


47


Julio Jones


32


Ty Montgomery


21


T.Y. Hilton


16


Davante Adams


9


Michael Crabtree


9


Doug Baldwin


8


Amari Cooper


6


Michael Thomas


6


Brandon Marshall


6


DeAndre Hopkins


6


Golden Tate


5


Stefon Diggs


5


Randall Cobb


4


Emmanuel Sanders


4


Will Fuller


4


Larry Fitzgerald


3


Jordy Nelson


3


Cole Beasley


3


Willie Snead


2


Marvin Jones


2




Tight End


Own %


C.J. Fiedorowicz


18


Rob Gronkowski


14


Jack Doyle


14


Jimmy Graham


10


Kyle Rudolph


8


Gary Barnidge


6


Greg Olsen


6


Travis Kelce


5


Cameron Brate


3


Antonio Gates


2


Martellus Bennett


2




Defense


Own %


Minnesota Vikings


24


Denver Broncos


8


NY Jets


6


Arizona Cardinals


6


Seattle Seahawks


5


Dallas Cowboys


4


New England Patriots


3


Philadelphia Eagles


3


Cleveland Browns


2


San Diego Chargers


2


Tampa Bay Buccaneers


2
Thanks for posting this again, Dan.  I think you said last week, but which of the two main dfs sites is Fantasydraft more like?

 
The more I am thinking about TE this week the more I am like Barnidge.  I am sure the reason DeMarco was only 10% is everyone is planning on rostering Julio, Evans, and either TY or Cooper again so they have to pay down at RB.  Doyle is almost certainly going to soak up a huge percentage of the TE exposure paying down there.  Barnidge has been seeing alot of targets.  If its raining, and with a huge upgrade to mediocre at QB thats where I think Im going.  Weather permitting of course.

 
I am basically dialed into Barnidge,  Rudolph,  and Graham .   I am having a hard time diversifying at WR.  Having a hard time also coming off Minn D to allow diversity . 

 
The more I am thinking about TE this week the more I am like Barnidge.  I am sure the reason DeMarco was only 10% is everyone is planning on rostering Julio, Evans, and either TY or Cooper again so they have to pay down at RB.  Doyle is almost certainly going to soak up a huge percentage of the TE exposure paying down there.  Barnidge has been seeing alot of targets.  If its raining, and with a huge upgrade to mediocre at QB thats where I think Im going.  Weather permitting of course.
I have a lot of Barnidge.  Don't he and McCown have a FF bromance?

 
The way Cleveland runs through QBs Im not sure.  I do know hes alot better than whos been throwing to Barnidge the last few weeks though.

 
My line-ups for tomorrow; as always, thoughts welcome.

SUN 0930-Mon 8:30: 

Cash LU: QB/ Winston RB/ D. Johnson, Freeman WR/ Evans,Cooper,Fitzgerald TE/ Rudolph K/ Bryant DEF/ NY Jets

GPP#1 LU: QB/ Ryan RB/ C. Michael,Asiata WR/ J. Jones, Evans, J.J. Nelson TE/ Reed [if active] K/ Catanzaro DEF/ MINN

GPP#2 LU: QB/ Fitzpatrick RB/ Ware, Blount WR/ Evans,Marshall,Diggs TE/ Olsen K/ McManus DEF/ NE

SUN 1:00 Main:

GPP LU: QB/ Winston RB/ Forte,Ty Montgomery WR/ J. Jones,Evans,Hopkins TE/ Barnidge K/Aguayo DEF/ NY Jets

Footballguys.com subscriber Freeroll LU: QB/ Brady RB/ Michael,Ware WR/ J. Jones,Marshall,J. Kearse TE/ Bennett [if active] K/ Sturgis DEF/ DEN

Baltimore Sportsrich Showdown [even though I live just over the border in Pa.] LU: QB/ Newtown RB/ D. Johnson, Booker WR/ J. Jones, D. Adams, R. Shepard TE/Olsen K/Bailey DEF/DEN

 
My line-ups for tomorrow; as always, thoughts welcome.

SUN 0930-Mon 8:30: 

Cash LU: QB/ Winston RB/ D. Johnson, Freeman WR/ Evans,Cooper,Fitzgerald TE/ Rudolph K/ Bryant DEF/ NY Jets

GPP#1 LU: QB/ Ryan RB/ C. Michael,Asiata WR/ J. Jones, Evans, J.J. Nelson TE/ Reed [if active] K/ Catanzaro DEF/ MINN

GPP#2 LU: QB/ Fitzpatrick RB/ Ware, Blount WR/ Evans,Marshall,Diggs TE/ Olsen K/ McManus DEF/ NE

SUN 1:00 Main:

GPP LU: QB/ Winston RB/ Forte,Ty Montgomery WR/ J. Jones,Evans,Hopkins TE/ Barnidge K/Aguayo DEF/ NY Jets

Footballguys.com subscriber Freeroll LU: QB/ Brady RB/ Michael,Ware WR/ J. Jones,Marshall,J. Kearse TE/ Bennett [if active] K/ Sturgis DEF/ DEN

Baltimore Sportsrich Showdown [even though I live just over the border in Pa.] LU: QB/ Newtown RB/ D. Johnson, Booker WR/ J. Jones, D. Adams, R. Shepard TE/Olsen K/Bailey DEF/DEN
Wait, what is this?

 
I guess that, as an Insider Pro/Subscriber to Footballguys.com, they enter me in this everyweek. I think it's kinda like a survivor-type game; need to stay in a top percentage every week to move on .......... I think. 

 
I guess that, as an Insider Pro/Subscriber to Footballguys.com, they enter me in this everyweek. I think it's kinda like a survivor-type game; need to stay in a top percentage every week to move on .......... I think. 
Ah, so you had to start at the beginning of the season for it?

 
I do have him in 2 cash LU's for the Thursday-Monday slates; guess I wanted to diversify a little. Using the IVC, they give me a total of 135.1 for the above LU.

 
Man I just can't stop tweaking these lineups. Need to stop reading articles,LOL

Now cash LU look like this

Brady/Freeman/Booker/Evans/Fits/Cobb(will move to DAdams if needed)/Gronk/Augayo/NE-$25 GPP

Winston/Michael/Book/Crab/Evans/BMarsh/Olsen/Santos/NYJ-$25 GPP

Rogers/DJ/Freeman/Evans/Fitz/Cobb(dadams option)/Barnidge/Santos/Houst-$25 GPP and 10 $2 DBLUPS

Brady/Free/Book/Evans/Fits/Cobb/Olsen/Santos/Den- 15 $2 DBLEUPS and 15 $2 H2Hs

GPPs

Rogers/DJ/Book/Evans/Fitz/Jordy/CJFed/Vinati/Houst- $2

Rogers/DJ/Ware/Evans/Fitz/Adams/CJFed/Cantan/Clev- $2

Brady/Michael/Book/Evans/Fitz/MThom/Gronk/Aguayo/NE-$2

Brees/DJ/Elliot/MTHom/Fitz/Evans/Doyle/Santos/KC $5

Rogers/Ware/Book/Evans/BMarsh/Adams/Graham/Santos/Den $5

1pm only

Newton/Michael/Ware/Evans/BMarsh/MThom/Graham/Aguao/Houst $2 and $5

Staff/Michael/Forte/Evans/BMarsh/MThom/Graham/GostkowNE $2 and $5

Brady/Ware/JWhite/Evans/BMash/MThom/Gronk/Aguyo/NE $2 and $5

Wislon/Michael/Ware/Evans/Marsh/Baldwin/CJFed/Gano/NE $2 and $5

4pm only

Rogers/Gordon/Book/JJones/Jordy/Adams/Tamme/MB/Den $2 and $5

Ryan/Free/Book/JJones/Adams/ESanders/Gates/McMan/Den $2 and $5

Seiman/Gordon/Free/JJones/Sanders/Jordy/Tamme/MB/Den $2 and $5

 
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I do have him in 2 cash LU's for the Thursday-Monday slates; guess I wanted to diversify a little. Using the IVC, they give me a total of 135.1 for the above LU.
Diversity just for the sake of diversity usually doesn't work out well. I wouldn't overthink it. 100% Booker and find diversity in another place. Put a different qb/wr stack around it. 

Dodds had a good post about this on his blog. 

 
Better cash play this week, Ryan or Luck? I keep flip flopping and can't make up my damn mind. 
I am starting to lean more to the Luck side by just a tad.  Luck is getting more weapons back and Gore isn't going to go off for 120 and 3 TDs or anything.   I think Cobb's unknown status makes me nervous for that game because Rodgers keeps losing weapons.  I wonder if Atlanta will have an easier time and Ryan won't have to air it out quite so much. 

Can't go wrong with either, and that's why my indecisive ### goes with too many cash LUs.

 
Diversity just for the sake of diversity usually doesn't work out well. I wouldn't overthink it. 100% Booker and find diversity in another place. Put a different qb/wr stack around it. 

Dodds had a good post about this on his blog. 
Especially in cash. 

This really has the feel of last week with Rodgers opening up a lot of options for WRs, and just like last week a lot of studs have decent matchups.  Very little margin for error. 

That said, I think the pricing this week is a bit easier, and there are 4-5 (IMO) great options at rb this week.  If you feel strongly about another guy or two, I see no reason to be 100% on Booker.  But yeah, don't diversify just to diversify in cash.  That's what gpps are for. 

 
So a few more interesting stats I pulled up last night.  The numbers below in parenthesis are combine 40 yard times.

The Green Bay Packers allow a passer rating of 158.3 on the right side to passes beyond 15 yards.  Yes that is a perfect passer rating through 7 games.  19% of Julio's targets are beyond 15 yards on the right side. 

John Brown (4.35) v. Daryl Worley (4.58)
Julio Jones (4.35) v. LaDarius Gunter (4.65)
Ted Ginn (4.28) v. Marcus Cooper (4.45)
TY Hilton (4.33) v. Steven Nelson (4.43)
Amari Cooper ( 4.42) v. Vernon Hargreaves III (4.50)
DeSean Jackson (4.35) v. Dre Kirkpatrick (4.5)

 
Appreciate all the input guys. 

As far as the above stats; Does Jones run only 19% of his targets to the right side? Or just beyond 15 yds on the right side? Wondering what the further breakdown is of his routes/targets; not that I'm going to bench him or anything, just a curiosity thing.  

 
The 19% number is his percentage of his targets on the right beyond 15 yards.  That is not the percentage of his routes.  To be honest I am not even really sure where to look for the routes info.  I know NFL.com has the data, and Matt Harmon tweets the cool next gen route maps out, but its only for select players each week as far as I can tell.

 
Theres a few more, but I didnt feel like writing them all out.  Heres the player props so far

Passing Yards:

Tyrod Taylor: 219.5
Andrew Luck: 275.5
Brock Osweiler: 250.5
Phillip Rivers: 220.5

Passing TDs:
Andrew Luck: 1.5 (-200)
Brock Osweiler: 1.5
Phillip Rivers: 1.5 (+130)

Receiving Yards:
AJ Green: 95.5
Spencer Ware: 25.5
Randall Cobb: 67.5
Jordy Nelson: 67.5

Rushing Yards:
Spencer Ware: 82.5
Christine Michael: 72.5
Andrew Luck: 21.5
Matt Forte: 80.5

 
Yeah, Im skipping cash this week except for the Football guys $10 doubleup.  Everyone is going to have Booker and 3 of Julio, Hopkins, TY, or Evans. 

 
I dont know why,  but I have a hard time putting freeman in my line ups.   Im just man crushing on Spencer Ware.  Helps i am a KC fan. 

 

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