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Joseph Tyler Mixon - Bengals RB


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8 minutes ago, davearm said:

Went into the draft reminding myself that Mixon was unplayable for the first 8 weeks last year, and by the time he got things turned around you were probably too gunshy to put him in your lineup.

But of course he fell to me, and I took him.

I guess the alternatives (Carson, only 6 carries week 1; Conner, injured) aren't looking that hot either.

Picking late sucks this year. It’s a sick feeling when CEH falls one pick before me and now I’m left with scraps at RB. I decided to go with Mixon with the thought of grabbing Jacobs in round two. I got lucky and did get Jacobs so I feel better with Mixon being my number two. I didn’t like the mocks I did when I grabbed Adams in the first. I didn’t feel comfortable going WR/WR and feared all RBs I liked would be gone. 
 

Gio needs to go away.

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...And then tore the ACL in that weakened knee during the game, so maybe not the best example.

What?

Mixon played well. Like in week 1 his play was better than his numbers because he is getting contacted or in some cases completely blown up in the backfield on probably 20 or 25% of his carries.

2 hours ago, Jamesinaz said:

Not the only bust so far.  My lineup is a bust.  Mixon.  A Jones, Conner, A Brown.  Jeez.  My first 4 picks and I'm ready to fade the season already.  Good thing I can still play golf.  LOL

 

 

I’m right there with you. I had the greatest Fantasy season ever last year and just knew variance had to kick in. Just remember it’s a long season. 

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2 hours ago, Smack Tripper said:

Mixon will be gold, they found something with that drive or two using him as a pass catcher.  10 days off, schedule is going to lighten up and Burrow is going to keep defenses honest.  Great buy low.

And then they didn't go back to it the entire rest of the game, which was bizarre.

Putting a little blame on Mixon for a moment, that goaline run he had was just awful.  He puts his head down he probably gets stuffed at the 1 and gets another chance on 2nd down.  Instead he just kind of stood around and couldn't decide what to do, then ran backwards and killed any shot he had at getting another rush in there.

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

And then they didn't go back to it the entire rest of the game, which was bizarre.

Putting a little blame on Mixon for a moment, that goaline run he had was just awful.  He puts his head down he probably gets stuffed at the 1 and gets another chance on 2nd down.  Instead he just kind of stood around and couldn't decide what to do, then ran backwards and killed any shot he had at getting another rush in there.

That was a horrible GL run.   Sadly Gio looked better on the GL.   

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5 hours ago, Mongidig said:

I’m right there with you. I had the greatest Fantasy season ever last year and just knew variance had to kick in. Just remember it’s a long season. 

10 team league:

Mixon

Michael Thomas

Golladay

David Johnson

AJ Brown

So...I got one right...LOOK AT ME!!!!!!!!!1!!!!Juan!!!

Edited by -jb-
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5 hours ago, Mongidig said:

I’m right there with you. I had the greatest Fantasy season ever last year and just knew variance had to kick in. Just remember it’s a long season. 

I had a great season last year too.   Just piled up points every week.  CMC was a big piece of the puzzle but it seemed that every player got me points and I didn’t deal with injuries.   This year is back to the struggle.  You make the best decisions that you can and move on.   So far, Mixon, Ingram and Golladay haven’t been good decisions.   

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3 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

Mixon is excellent buy-low candidate but it's difficult to justify on whether to trade for him with full knowledge of how terrible Bengals OL is.  Joe Burrow is in for a long season this year.

You mean like Kyler Murray last year?

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I am thinking of moving him.  I'm in desperate need of WR help and going to target Lockett straight up.

The guy who lost Saquon is desperate for a RB and I am going to offer Mixon for Lockett....good move?  I think he'll bite....

For context,  I have Jacobs, Taylor, McKinnon, Chase Edwards RB's and the #1 waiver for which I think I am going to snag Davis w/ McCaffery out.  Also have Dak, Hunter Henry/  PLUS T Boyd, Gallup, C Davis, and Em Sanders (who is getting cut) hence the need for WR help.... for additional context, he has JuJu, Malcolm Brown and Thielen.....so I think he would pull the deal given his RB's are Gurley, Hines and Breida. 

I think it would be a good and equitable deal for both parties....

Appreciate any feedback here on if its a good move or not.

Also, think a Kelce owner would do straight for Mixon? 

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1 hour ago, xenon said:

Appreciate any feedback here on if its a good move or not.

Redraft or dynasty? Forget it, it's not a good trade to trade Mixon away for Lockett with your RBs, or with any RBs. You're not that deep. He'd absolutely leap at that deal. 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

Redraft or dynasty? Forget it, it's not a good trade to trade Mixon away for Lockett with your RBs, or with any RBs. You're not that deep. He'd absolutely leap at that deal. 

Agreed.   Mixon should improve his numbers as the season rolls along.   I would hold onto any starting RB on my roster unless you could obtain a WR1.   With RBs dropping like flies, the value of healthy starting RBs just increases.   

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On 9/18/2020 at 7:40 PM, Aznflyer14 said:

Mixon is excellent buy-low candidate but it's difficult to justify on whether to trade for him with full knowledge of how terrible Bengals OL is.  Joe Burrow is in for a long season this year.

I wish Mixon was a buy low in my dynasty league... they want Barkley for Mixon and Conner.

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On 9/18/2020 at 6:40 PM, Aznflyer14 said:

Mixon is excellent buy-low candidate but it's difficult to justify on whether to trade for him with full knowledge of how terrible Bengals OL is.  Joe Burrow is in for a long season this year.

Was offered Mixon and ODB for CEH in redraft. It’s an interesting offer but not sure I can accept, as I feel CEH has so much potential.

Edited by VikingFrog
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33 minutes ago, BearsFan4Life said:

I wish Mixon was a buy low in my dynasty league... they want Barkley for Mixon and Conner.

I’ll get blasted for this but I don’t know that I would give up Mixon for Barkley straight up.  I am VERY concerned about Barkley’s future. 😞

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Watching this guy is frustrating.  The situation isn't good but I see absolutely nothing dynamic about him.  And boy does he suck at the goaline.

I wish I had moved him this offseason when his value was so high.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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On 9/22/2020 at 10:54 AM, Hoh said:

I’ll get blasted for this but I don’t know that I would give up Mixon for Barkley straight up.  I am VERY concerned about Barkley’s future. 😞

I take it back.  Would trade Mixon for one of Barkley’s cleats.

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I mean ... he was horrendous early last year - but ended up being a league winner in the second half.

full disclosure, I don’t watch the Bengals. But is it REALLY Mixon Being the issue? Or is it faulty play calling/ poor run blocking? 
 

Mixon is one of the most talented backs in football imo. Hard to believe that he just “sucks” 

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17 minutes ago, Ray Barboni said:

I mean ... he was horrendous early last year - but ended up being a league winner in the second half.

full disclosure, I don’t watch the Bengals. But is it REALLY Mixon Being the issue? Or is it faulty play calling/ poor run blocking? 
 

Mixon is one of the most talented backs in football imo. Hard to believe that he just “sucks” 

He was RB6 so I'm not sure I would say he was a league winner.

As to who is at fault like I said the line is doing him no favors but he is doing absolutely nothing to help.  This whole situation reminds me EXACTLY of the same discussions I was having as I bailed on Leonard Fournette a year and a half ago.  Much like Fournette then, every conversation with Mixon now starts with "well obviously he's one of the most talented backs in football, but...".

With Fournette I asked people to show me what he does on the field that makes him one of the most talented backs in football, and no one could ever answer it.  I see a lot of the same with Mixon.

Why are we so sure he's one of the most talented backs in football?  Because everyone thought he was talented 4 years ago when he was a draft prospect?  I have Mixon in the same high stakes league I had Fournette in so like Fournette I watch probably every snap he's taken the last few years.  He does NOTHING impressive.  He doesn't make guys miss.  He doesn't run particularly strongly.  He is putrid at the goaline.

The biggest thing he's missing is he has absolutely zero vision or creativity at the 2nd level.  Nick Chubb isn't running behind a good line but he makes the most of his opportunities.  When he gets to the second level he runs through an arm tackle, makes a sick cut to put a DB out of the play, takes a good angle and turns a 7 yard run into a 40 yard TD.  Mixon gets into the second level and kind of just runs straight into 3 guys and falls over.  That's the biggest thing missing in his game relative to other RBs behind bad lines.  He just completely lacks the ability to make a special play when given the opportunity, which is weird to say given that he was exactly that kind of player in college.  It just hasn't translated to the NFL.

One thing you will find lacking in Mixon threads with the people defending him is descriptions of how he is making these incredible runs just to get back to the line of scrimmage or gain 3 yards.  We've seen that a lot with good RBs behind bad lines.  They make a sweet spin move, drag a linebacker, etc just to gain 2 yards.  Mixon never really does that.  There are never these plays where you're like "wow, that was amazing to even get back to the line there".

I think he is what he is.  A slightly above average NFL RB.  He would be fine on a good team.  Maybe the Bengals can become one with Burrow now in town and Mixon can be a decent fantasy asset.  But he is simply, absolutely not this uber talented elite RB that people have treated him as for his entire career.  The only guys that I can ever remember holding his perception of being an elite player without actually doing anything elite on the field for this long are Leonard Fournette and Sam Bradford, and it didn't exaclty work out for those guys.

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Joe Mixon rushed 17 times for 49 yards in the Bengals Week 3 tie with the Eagles.

Mixon couldn't get much going versus the Eagles and wasn't particularly involved in the passing game either. He caught two of his three targets but only managed to produce 16 yards on the two catches. Giovani Bernard saw as many targets and turned one into a 42-yard catch. Mixon is averaging three targets per game while Bernard is pacing at five per game. Without a solid role as a receiver, Mixon is going to have numerous dud weeks as long as the Bengals continue to lose (or tie) games. He's starting to look more like an RB2 with RB1 upside than a weekly RB1 at this point.

Sep 27, 2020, 5:44 PM ET

 

 

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On 9/22/2020 at 12:53 AM, xenon said:

I am thinking of moving him.  I'm in desperate need of WR help and going to target Lockett straight up.

The guy who lost Saquon is desperate for a RB and I am going to offer Mixon for Lockett....good move?  I think he'll bite....

For context,  I have Jacobs, Taylor, McKinnon, Chase Edwards RB's and the #1 waiver for which I think I am going to snag Davis w/ McCaffery out.  Also have Dak, Hunter Henry/  PLUS T Boyd, Gallup, C Davis, and Em Sanders (who is getting cut) hence the need for WR help.... for additional context, he has JuJu, Malcolm Brown and Thielen.....so I think he would pull the deal given his RB's are Gurley, Hines and Breida. 

I think it would be a good and equitable deal for both parties....

Appreciate any feedback here on if its a good move or not.

Also, think a Kelce owner would do straight for Mixon? 

I hope you pulled this off. It will be December before Mixons season totals match what Lockett did today 

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Part of the problem is a lack of creativity on offense. They are predictable with their sub patterns and this puts Mixon and his OL at a disadvantage, especially on early downs and around the goal line. He's a terrific receiver, yet they favor Giovanni on 3rd downs and 2 min drill scenarios. The advanced rushing stats from 2019 will suggest Mixon IS good at YAC and breaking tackles. 2020 will suggest otherwise, but I doubt he's forgotten how to run the ball. 

2019 top 10 in broken tackles and YAC.  2020, not even in the top 20 (granted much smaller sample size).  At this rate you're selling as low as it gets and unless you can get a great deal from a RB needy owner I think it's best to ride it out. They're not winning with this current formula so one would hope the coaches would try something else... But who knows. They pony up and pay the guy only to make him a 2 down RB.  But this is what I get, told myself don't buy into Mixon again...but his touches and seemingly 3 down RB status heading into the year seemed too good to pass up in the 2nd :( 

 

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9 minutes ago, jbz said:

Part of the problem is a lack of creativity on offense. They are predictable with their sub patterns and this puts Mixon and his OL at a disadvantage, especially on early downs and around the goal line. He's a terrific receiver, yet they favor Giovanni on 3rd downs and 2 min drill scenarios. The advanced rushing stats from 2019 will suggest Mixon IS good at YAC and breaking tackles. 2020 will suggest otherwise, but I doubt he's forgotten how to run the ball. 

2019 top 10 in broken tackles and YAC.  2020, not even in the top 20 (granted much smaller sample size).  At this rate you're selling as low as it gets and unless you can get a great deal from a RB needy owner I think it's best to ride it out. They're not winning with this current formula so one would hope the coaches would try something else... But who knows. They pony up and pay the guy only to make him a 2 down RB.  But this is what I get, told myself don't buy into Mixon again...but his touches and seemingly 3 down RB status heading into the year seemed too good to pass up in the 2nd :(

A large part of the difference is you're looking at volume stats and in 2019 he played 16 games with a lot of carries so naturally he compiled more total yac and broken tackles. 

Adjusted per carry he was very mediocre. Just cracked the top 20 tied with guys like Ronald Jones and Chris Carson in yac per carry. 

He was also extremely mediocre at yards over replacement at 0.06. He was 35th in yards created out of 45 rbs included in that calculation. 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

A large part of the difference is you're looking at volume stats and in 2019 he played 16 games with a lot of carries so naturally he compiled more total yac and broken tackles. 

Adjusted per carry he was very mediocre. Just cracked the top 20 tied with guys like Ronald Jones and Chris Carson in yac per carry. 

He was also extremely mediocre at yards over replacement at 0.06. He was 35th in yards created out of 45 rbs included in that calculation. 

This is true...per carry he's still pretty average at best. So that being said...why not give him the volume then? I dunno man, seems odd they pay the guy to NOT use him? He almost looks dejected out there but that could just be how he is LOL.  I mean you watch a guy like Hunt run and he's freaking attacking and making ##### happen. Oh well. I'm still sticking with him as the rest of my post holds true. We're stuck with this guy! 

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19 minutes ago, Ardbeg4ever said:

3/4 of the runs I've watched, he can't get to 1 yard behind LOS without having to elude someone

Their line is not good.  He's a sell in redraft if you can get anything for him.  In dynasty, I think he's a major buy low candidate.

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9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

A large part of the difference is you're looking at volume stats and in 2019 he played 16 games with a lot of carries so naturally he compiled more total yac and broken tackles. 

Adjusted per carry he was very mediocre. Just cracked the top 20 tied with guys like Ronald Jones and Chris Carson in yac per carry. 

He was also extremely mediocre at yards over replacement at 0.06. He was 35th in yards created out of 45 rbs included in that calculation. 

The key to superior fantasy results is a superior understanding of football context. I think your post is a bit lacking in this area because it’s missing surrounding commentary.

 

Joe Mixon is an elite RB stuck in a horrifying fantasy situation. We quite simply do not have statistical models that can accurately quantify horrifying run blocking because offensive line play is not linear. For example if a line’s performance is 3/10 that does not mean it’s half as effective as 6/10. When blocking falls below certain performance thresholds an offense dips into dysfunctional territory, a form of negative chaos infects the data, and every dependent player’s statistical output looks worse than it actually is. Joe Mixon has been playing with dysfunctional blocking for large portions of his career and as a result his performance and football ability is often misunderstood. True football people do not make this error which is why Mixon just got a huge contract and why, for example, Bill Belichick has called him probably the best RB in football. I myself do not think Mixon is the best RB in football and he has had some runs this season that I frankly grade as terrible. But given context his career play is far closer to “miraculous” than it is to “mediocre.” Any analytics that suggest otherwise should be scrutinized closely. There are a lot of heavily subjective metrics compiled by way below average football minds that get tossed around like actual data, be wary of this stuff.

 

In terms of actionable redraft advice for 2020, I would not talk anyone out of selling Mixon as there is no guarantee the blocking will get better. But realize that he’s very talented and that 3 games is a small sample and that the situation may improve over the season like it did last year. And in dynasty I’d be looking much more to buy low on Mixon than sell 

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No reason to sell right now.  You're not going to get better than RB2 prices and he's worth just putting in your lineup as any regular RB2 would be.  He'll get his 7-12 points and maybe they get a goal line where they actually give it to him or he snaps one off. 

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I can't remember if I made my "no way is he a 1st round pick this season" in this thread or another, but this can't be surprising at all that he is not doing well.  He is still on what was the worst team in the NFL last season, and he is an average NFL starting RB at best anyway.  The group think that resulted in this guy having an ADP late in the 1st round must have been drinking heavily.

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6 hours ago, massraider said:

I'm not buying any RB in dynasty that ties himself to the Bengals long term. 

I don't get points for "talented guy in bad situation". 

Nah. This is how you miss out on the Chubb's and AJB's of the world. You bet on talent unless the situation is ridic (see CEH). 

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10 hours ago, massraider said:

I'm not buying any RB in dynasty that ties himself to the Bengals long term. 

I don't get points for "talented guy in bad situation". 

I thought I was nuts for having zero interest in him while others were viewing him as a top 10 talent.  Situation is HUGE unless you are a supreme talent which I don’t believe he is.  I’d deal him for pennies on the dollar to anyone who thinks they may be buying low.

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