Smith plays very conservatively and that measures very favorably with QB rating. He started off the year playing excellent football. He has become quite average in the last 4 weeks. He might have the highest QBR in football, but if you asked 32 league GMs, do you think they'd name him a top 10 QB in the league? I highly doubt it.
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RB Kareem Hunt, CLE (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
kutta
Footballguy
My apologies if I misappropriated the intent of your statement. But you just said again there was no reason to think it was possible that he keep performing at that level. Of course no one is going to bet their house on it, but you thought it was possible he keeps up the pace. I don’t see the problem.
And “Now I suppose eventually they will be right” is not the same thing as saying Hunt will have a bad game.
I’ll go ahead and leave you Hunt guys to your thread. It’s obviously too hard for some of you to admit when you might have been wrong about someone.
Edit fix Biak quote.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
You wouldn't need to appologize if you would just read what I said without adding your own agenda to it.
No read what you quoted. That isn't what I said.
I would be happy to admit I was wrong about something if I actually was.
What I said:
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gianmarco
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Sorry for the misquote - that was unintentional.
I guess I just read what you wrote differently than your intent - not adding an agenda at all. If you aren't saying that you think he could keep up the pace the rest of the way, I'm not sure what you are saying.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What I was saying is that based off of the first three games, 3 games being a trend, that I didn't see any reason why it wouldn't be possible for him to keep doing that each game moving forward.
When making projections I will use a 3 game sample to project forward until more data becomes available.
I did say prior to that that he will likely have a bad game at some point, as all players do. It just hadn't happened yet.
Possible means "able to be done; within the power or capacity of someone or something." but that is very different than saying probable or what is expected to happen.
kutta
Footballguy
So are you saying that after the third game, you projected Hunt to continue that pace the rest of the way? Or am I misunderstanding that too?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That was the only information I had to project him with at that time yes.
Did I expect him to maintain that? No. I was just saying it was possible. I was open to that being one outcome. That is kind of what possible means.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Honestly I was thinking it's you having a hard time admitting you were wrong about arguing against something that no one actually said (that Hunt could keep up that pace).
As a Hunt owner, I'm still happy with his production since I had no delusions that he was going to score 50 points a game and he still looks good to me. I see better games coming in the future as TDs are unpredictable for the most part. This past week was his worst game and it wasn't horrific. Most backs have some down weeks.
I'm not saying that no one got carried away after a hot start, but that seems pretty natural. However outside of Hot Sauce Guy, who to be fair was schticking it up a bit, most people did not even think 20 TDs was all that realistic.
As to you being hung up on those that said they wouldn't trade him for Bell, Elliot or DJ, I do not see that as too outlandish still to be honest. He's the youngest of the group and has shown he can be as productive. In the only league I own him, I also have DJ so I couldn't speak to that but given Johnson's age and potential terrible situation going forward I could see Hunt over him. I surely prefer Bell, because he's an elite talent and still only 25, but I don't see Zeke v. Hunt as one sided as you do. Zeke is a better talent, but his situation helps him tremendously as well and that o-line may not stick together. There's also a potential "knucklehead" factor with Zeke and some just don't like dealing with those headaches.
Tau837
Footballguy
Your quote was that 20 TDs was "downright reasonable". That is different than saying it is within the realm of possibility. Do you see the difference?
No premonitions are required to expect that a player who opened the season with 3 unexpectedly great games would be unlikely to sustain that performance. No premonitions are required to realize that NFL teams are likely to suffer injuries throughout the season that cause players to miss time, which in turn affects the other players around them.
No idea what the bolded is supposed to mean. People were right to doubt that Hunt would sustain his early performance.
It's too early to say. He still has 7 more games to play. Based on his season to date, he would not be a top 8 overall pick for me, and probably not a first round pick either.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think I have talked about the dangers of projecting from a small sample size at least 100 or more times in various topics around here over the years. I have said it so much that I have kind of gotten tired of saying it. As I am talking with a lot of the same people here in regards to this, I was kind of working from the assumption that most of us here know this already.
Apparently not.
To be clear projecting off of a 4 game sample is going to have more error in it than a 8 game sample will. An 8 game sample is still likely too small, but I think the accuracy of a 8 game sample will be twice as good as a 4 game sample will be. A full 16 game sample is twice as good as a 8 game sample will be as well.
A 48 game sample will be a lot better than a 32 game sample or a 16 game sample. I prefer to use 3 years of data whenever possible to make projections.
The axiom that one of something is an isolated event, two of something could be a coincidence and three of something could be considered a trend is something that I apply here. 3 seasons is the preferred sample size for me. 3 games is the smallest sample size I would consider using.
As JWB and I were discussing recently in the dynasty value thread, it is also important to make calls as quickly as you can in regards to players. So at the beginning of the season, I will wait until the first 3-4 games are played before adjusting projections made prior to the season.
Hunt being a rookie player after the 3 games was the soonest time I could possibly consider trying to project for him. I certainly did not have a high level of confidence in those numbers carrying forward for the whole season, that would be pretty silly in my view, but it was the only information for Hunt to draw upon at that time that could be considered actionable. Obviously the sample becomes better with each additional game in regards to projecting him forward.
This is a process that I would apply equally to all players.
Apparently not.
To be clear projecting off of a 4 game sample is going to have more error in it than a 8 game sample will. An 8 game sample is still likely too small, but I think the accuracy of a 8 game sample will be twice as good as a 4 game sample will be. A full 16 game sample is twice as good as a 8 game sample will be as well.
A 48 game sample will be a lot better than a 32 game sample or a 16 game sample. I prefer to use 3 years of data whenever possible to make projections.
The axiom that one of something is an isolated event, two of something could be a coincidence and three of something could be considered a trend is something that I apply here. 3 seasons is the preferred sample size for me. 3 games is the smallest sample size I would consider using.
As JWB and I were discussing recently in the dynasty value thread, it is also important to make calls as quickly as you can in regards to players. So at the beginning of the season, I will wait until the first 3-4 games are played before adjusting projections made prior to the season.
Hunt being a rookie player after the 3 games was the soonest time I could possibly consider trying to project for him. I certainly did not have a high level of confidence in those numbers carrying forward for the whole season, that would be pretty silly in my view, but it was the only information for Hunt to draw upon at that time that could be considered actionable. Obviously the sample becomes better with each additional game in regards to projecting him forward.
This is a process that I would apply equally to all players.
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kutta
Footballguy
That's fair. And here's the problem in this thread.
I made a comment that some people did not expect Hunt to maintain his early pace. People took that litterally to mean that I thought there were people who thought he would score 32 TD's and rush for a bazillion yards, when what I meant was that many of us really thought he would drop way back to earth, and trading DJ, Bell, or Zeke for him was a mistake. So the only reason I am making a big deal about your projection, is that it actually is a projection of him scoring 32 TD's and rushing for a bazillion yards (or whatever it was).
I understand your process, and I get that it is hard to do after 3 games. And, I appreciate the work you put into your stuff on this board. So I will leave this here and move on.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
20 TD in a season is something that has only occurred 28 times in the entire history of the NFL
It is very unlikely for any player to score 20 TD even ones who have done that in one season before. This includes David Johnson.
It is very unlikely for any player to score 20 TD even ones who have done that in one season before. This includes David Johnson.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Tons of negativity in here so Ill post this as a Hunt owner/realist ( I knew he wasn't going to average 30 lol)
They were 6-0, they're now 6-3. A bye to rest up and figure out there offense again.
If they were 9-0, 11-2, etc... I could definitely have seen Hunt getting max rest down the stretch. As is, they'll be fighting for a spot so if they can get the ground game running again-- he could have some monster touch games down the stretch.
They were 6-0, they're now 6-3. A bye to rest up and figure out there offense again.
If they were 9-0, 11-2, etc... I could definitely have seen Hunt getting max rest down the stretch. As is, they'll be fighting for a spot so if they can get the ground game running again-- he could have some monster touch games down the stretch.
Dizzy
Footballguy
We've all seen this play out before with Reid-coached teams... they start off the season looking like world-beaters... all the creativity, all the formations, everything seems to work... then the mid-point of the season where every play that was "nifty" 6-7 weeks ago is now part of the standard routine and things just stop working.
Same goes for the running game... how many pressers have we seen where a reporter asks Reid specifically about the (low) number of touches the RB receives, and he actually looks surprised, every time, to hear the number. Then he says, "That's on me. We need to get him more involved."
Hopefully they come out of the bye with some new wrinkles. They really need to work on their running game. It honestly feels like they have 2 RB-designed running plays with one of those being a QB keeper option.
Also wondering if this new, greatly improved, heaving that #### downfield Alex Smith hasn't been ruined by the success he had earlier this season. Seems like he has gone off the deep end and now prefers to force the mid-to-long range ball or run/throw away versus checking down to the RB out of the backfield. Even outside of Hunt... where are West's touches as the 3rd down back... what happened to the screen game?
Same goes for the running game... how many pressers have we seen where a reporter asks Reid specifically about the (low) number of touches the RB receives, and he actually looks surprised, every time, to hear the number. Then he says, "That's on me. We need to get him more involved."
Hopefully they come out of the bye with some new wrinkles. They really need to work on their running game. It honestly feels like they have 2 RB-designed running plays with one of those being a QB keeper option.
Also wondering if this new, greatly improved, heaving that #### downfield Alex Smith hasn't been ruined by the success he had earlier this season. Seems like he has gone off the deep end and now prefers to force the mid-to-long range ball or run/throw away versus checking down to the RB out of the backfield. Even outside of Hunt... where are West's touches as the 3rd down back... what happened to the screen game?
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
The thing is I'm not sure how else we're supposed to take it. It's very dangerous on forums to try to interpret or assume anything, so I tend to take people at their exact words. I'm not trying to be combative, I'm trying to stick to what I read. Because if someone says they like JJSS over Corey Davis I can't sit here and assume they hate Corey Davis - that's a logical fallacy and will create all kinds of problems in a non-verbal communication medium like forums.
kutta
Footballguy
But there were issues with me taking Biak at his exact words. It goes both ways.
Anyway, good luck with Hunt the rest of the way.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No, I think you're splitting hairs. The point remains that hindsight is always 20-20. The fact remains that he was on pace for much more than 20, and had the KC OL not suffered injuries, and had Reid not seemingly abandoned the run since week 4, 20 TDs is still "downright reasonable" and "within the realm of possibility". So it's disingenuous to use that 20-20 hindsight to quote a month-old post and say "see! I told you it was impossible!" - because it was entirely possible. Just like it's now impossible for ARod to throw for 4000 yards, or Jordy Nelson to catch 15 TDs. All of those things were downright reasonable before circumstances changed, and since no one here is psychic you cannot apply 20-20 hindsight as an "I told you so".
And again - many of us agreed that Hunt would not sustain that performance. That's why we didn't project 32 TDs and 5000 yards. 20 TDs seemed entirely likely for a guy who was scoring 2+ per game at the time, even counting for a missed game, and a decline in production.
20 TDs over 15 games is 1.3/game (assuming he'd miss a game). So again, it is disingenuous to look back as though we're comparing apples to apples regarding current vs past production.
And I was largely in agreement with those people, because his early performance was ridonkulous. However projecting 60-70% of that performance didn't seem worthy of the criticism heaped upon those who were making early Hunt projections.
And more significantly, it is not a talent issue that's caused Hunt's numbers to decline. It's the circumstances around him. When I watch him work this week I see every bit the talent level that led to his early success.
And that seems to be a major disconnect among his naysayers. Much of the early criticism of Hunt and his expected crash to earth came off as schadenfreude by those who missed taking him in the later rounds of drafts this year. Seems like there's still quite a bit of that in the "I told you so" crowd.
I'd be shocked to not see a top 5 ADP for Hunt, barring injury. The Chiefs are one of the most run-heavy teams when they have their druthers, and they're one of the rare teams that prefers a feature back to RBBC. So unless Hunt suffers an injury or the Chiefs bring in a RB to steal carries in the offseason, I'd happily take him top 8.
But we all have our preferences...Each to their own.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He certainly looked like he'd be the 29th guy to do it.
If the OL had stayed intact I think he'd be well on his way.
Ah well. Sad trombone. (we really need a sad trombone emoji)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Given the rarity of any player scoring 20 TD I would never project that for any player.
If **** Vermiel was still coaching, then maybe I would consider it for his feature RB. 3 of those 28 instances were Vermeil coached teams with stellar KC offensive line at the time and the whole offense running through their RBs. No other coach has really done that.
You have LT and Emmitt Faulk Priest and Alexander as the only RB to score 20 TD more than once. That is a pretty strong indicator to me that David Johnson won't score 20 or more TD again, although I would say its possible, since he has done it once, and he does have strong TD/game numbers when you look at his second half of the 2015 season tear in there. If anyone were to do it I would guess him. LeVeon Bell does not make this list.
It just isn't a realistic expectation in my opinion. 16 TD is likely about how high I would be willing to go for any projection of a RB, and that RB would need to have strong TD/game numbers over more than a full season for me to really consider projecting them with that many.
TD are really fluky to be honest, and not a stat I spend a lot of time trying to project accurately. I may be a bit too conservative with my TD projections, but I would rather not overshoot and over value players when it comes to projecting TDs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s all splitting hairs. We’re putting things in writing so it’s easy to take each other literally.
It’s just football.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Yes I still stand by my initial position. The problem is not Hunt, and given what he has shown I’m sure not pulling him from my lineup in favor of a low RB2. Give Zeke or Bell 9 carries in a game and odds are they aren’t going to put up great numbers either.
Football Outsiders have KC ranked as the 19th best run blocking line in the league yet Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yds despite his 9 carry effort last game. Why is that? Hunt is also their number 2 ranked RB behind only Zeke, and it’s close between them with a very wide margin to get to RB3.
I’ll ask again. Have you seen him play? The guy has some very special and unique talent. if you watch him you can see it. If you owned him in FF would you sit him? For how many other RBs? Please list them.
.
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kutta
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would agree. As a hunt owner I think the time to get AB was week 3 or 4. And even then it woulda been a tough get as many AB owners would be skeptical still.
i could see Hunt for Baldwin 1:1, but would absolutely need to improve the deal in a 2:2 or 3:3.
i would suggest you counter offer though - check his roster and see what you want. You’ve got the better commodity so you should be able to take the lead in this deal.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
In my league a trade of Hunt and Corey Coleman for Julio, CJA and Booker just went through. I like the Hunt/Corey Coleman side personally.
NREC34
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So hindsight is often 20-20 then?NREC34 said:
Hankmoody
Footballguy
About as often as expecting historic-level performances to trail off is.So hindsight is often 20-20 then?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Looks like a pretty good mix of defenses to varying degree.
BUF & NYJ have been good & bad against the run - pretty much all those teams are jeckyl & Hyde.
If Snacks is out, the Giants interior gets a lot softer.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I was close to getting AB for Hunt this week but ultimately fell short.
The matchups don't shy me away at all. Andy Reid slowing down his workload or forgetting he's on the roster does.
The matchups don't shy me away at all. Andy Reid slowing down his workload or forgetting he's on the roster does.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The latter has been the most frustrating. I don't see Hunt's ability as the issue - Reid abandoning his run game and preferring to run goofy trick plays is a major problem for Hunt the last 3-4 games. We'll see if that changes with the seasons. Winter is often better for the ground game. We'll see what Reid does - the next 2 weeks will be a good indicator IMO.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think 9 games is a decent sample size from which to project from. I like that Hunt has a dud game in the sample size now as well, as that shows us his downside, even though that game may not be representative of what his ability is or what he will do on average in a game. Stuff happens, so good to have that data in the sample.
9 games 155 rushing attempts 800 rushing yards 4 TD 37 targets 32 receptions 331 yards 2 TD. On a per game basis this is 17 rushing attempts 89 yards .44 TD 4 targets 3.6 receptions 37 yards .22 TD about 16 points per game moving forward.
If Hunt maintains this average over the next 7 games he will end up with 274 rushing attempts 1423 yards 7 TD 65 targets 57 receptions 590 yards 3 TD 260 points in standard 317 points in PPR which would be RB two last year in standard and RB three last year in PPR.
As I already mentioned earlier in the thread the total receiving yards are likely to be lower than his current pace by the end of the season. Maybe he winds up with 500 receiving yards as I would expect his yards per reception to fall more towards the average for a RB of 7 instead of his current 10.3 ypr
Happy to have him back this week, my teams definitely have missed his contribution while on bye.
9 games 155 rushing attempts 800 rushing yards 4 TD 37 targets 32 receptions 331 yards 2 TD. On a per game basis this is 17 rushing attempts 89 yards .44 TD 4 targets 3.6 receptions 37 yards .22 TD about 16 points per game moving forward.
If Hunt maintains this average over the next 7 games he will end up with 274 rushing attempts 1423 yards 7 TD 65 targets 57 receptions 590 yards 3 TD 260 points in standard 317 points in PPR which would be RB two last year in standard and RB three last year in PPR.
As I already mentioned earlier in the thread the total receiving yards are likely to be lower than his current pace by the end of the season. Maybe he winds up with 500 receiving yards as I would expect his yards per reception to fall more towards the average for a RB of 7 instead of his current 10.3 ypr
Happy to have him back this week, my teams definitely have missed his contribution while on bye.
All of those defenses are below average in run defense rankings. In the Giants and Raiders case, bottom of the barrel. Buffalo is starting a new QB which could be disastrous. Miami & LA will be out of it by the time they play. Assuming Reid actually gives him some touches, Hunt should be able to get back to putting up some strong numbers the rest of the season.
zoonation
Footballguy
I think we see an uptick in proldcution from the last few games going forward here. Line is healthier. And, Smith is t winning big games in winter with his arm. Let’s be clear about that. They need Hunt to produce and keep the ball way more in offense. That D can’t carry this team. They need a running game.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I traded him today. Sorry guys, im off the bandwagon for now.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Hopefully Andy Reid spent his bye week watching the Saints play... "Oh, maybe it will be fun to expand on the (original) Techmo Bowl book of running plays."
zoonation
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I decided I didn't have a team to win it all so I made a two part move
1. Hunt and Russell Wilson for Deshaun Watson and Gurley
got Gurley so I could do the 2nd
2. Gurley for Zeke
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Excellent post. And seemingly a very realistic projection.
Just like the stinker game, you also have to consider a boom game or two being possible down the stretch. He seems overdue for a 50+ yard TD, and he could have a couple monster games like he started with.
But as you said, a pretty fair indicator of his floor.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And getting worse with injury. Losing Snacks Harrison is a significant blow to the Giants run defense. He was a wall. I got thenimoresik he wouldn’t speedily return to play. Raiders D has taken a few hits last couple games as well.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m not sure I’d rather have Zeke than Gurley. Watson/Gurley is tremendous value. Maybe Zeke is better than Gurley - I dunno....situationally the Rams are on the rise. Cowboys D isn’t as good & I’m still not sure how legit Dak is.
Not a bad deal though either way. Gratz.
zoonation
Footballguy
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