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Jones touches are such a wild card with J.Williams and D Adams to compete with. 70 rushing yards and no TDS? Or 40 yards and 3 TDS? I hate AJs floor, so I prefer the guarantee targets of Perriman.
Health was always the concern, and he has shown he can do it. Hes a beast. Once GB gets a competent wr2 his volume in the passing game should go down, but both him and Williams look like a great combo this year and next.
Thrilled with him this year
Won my fantasy title by 4 pts after his td run last night. The guy was incredible this season as an early third rounder in redraft. Thanks Aaron!
Have you considered Ockham? That he's a touchdown-dependent guy and you might need to calibrate your expectations next year?
I don’t question his ability/talent. I question the regime. I’m not sure they realize what they have, or maybe they do and aren’t as impressed as I am. My point is I got him on the cheap in dynasty, as I imagine most did, and therefore I have other RB talent as well. I don’t think that despite his high finish I will able to auto-start him every week. To be fair, I am the king of paralysis by analysis. How about you...if you have other viable options, do you think Jones is matchup proof yet?
No, I don't think he's match-up proof at all. I think he's really touchdown-dependent right now, and that is going to regress to the mean at some point unless the circumstances next year are similar to this one's. I wish I'd drafted him, but considering the next most touchdowns to his is around fifteen, and only two guys have that? He's an RB1 this year solely based on opportunity.
I actually am really just looking at numbers as I only saw Green Bay play three or four times this year, and Jones seemed to be firmly implanted in the end zone all the time. Others that rostered him probably have a better idea of what it's like to have him on your team with the claimed (I'm not sure that's totally correct) variance he brings.
Absolutely in agreement with you about how you have to look at talent and efficiency. There are times we should be rewarding guys who are efficient, not fading them because of some regression that may never happen. That's why I said I'd only seen him three or four times and don't know. He looked really good to me, if a bit on the frail side for an every down RB, which he wasn't, ceding work to WIlliams.
Right. It's interesting to me. If he were a 24 year old running back that had just finished with 1500 yards, 50 catches, 10 TDs instead of 1500 yards, 50 catches, 20 TDs I don't think his value would be any different than it is right now. I wonder if it might even be higher since people wouldn't be as excited to scream "regression!" every time his name popped up.
See, even better
Elliott was a top four back, likely top overall if not for the home out, back during draft time. Will likely be top 4 again. Jones was late 3rd early 4th in many leagues, and probably mid late second next year.
In my experience yards are more sticky year over year compared to TD so it is only natural to not expect those numbers to repeat in 2020 while if the player is gaining yards, that is something more sustainable in general,
I like Jones a lot, even with some regression, but I absolutely would keep Godwin.I fear the regression is coming, just doesn't seem like 19 TDs is sustainable. To the point, right or wrong, that I was offered him in a PPR league for Godwin, and I rejected.
I told him if he'd add the 1.7 rookie pick I'd do it (because I need a RB) but he refused. So yeah, I'm keeping Godwin. Man his future with Arians looks VERY bright...
….as long as they get a decent QB to throw to him...…..There is a non-zero chance that he takes a downgrade at QB from the fantasy perspective.
Which really makes no sense from a matchup standpoint. He was a mismatch and was really good. It should be relied on more not less.....but I am sure you are right and it will be less work in the passing game from him.
It doesn't make sense... and I could very well be wrong. I always approach this kind of stuff from a pie chart perspective...
Everything you said makes sense. My issue is with the coaches moving away from utilizing Jones more in the passing game. He was a mismatch that gave the Packers a big advantage. When they through to him down the field on wheel routes and seam routes he was open and made big plays. I just don't understand why they didn't try it every game.
I agree with your methodology on this but I think the depth chart is going to churn more than you are saying here. I think they draft a stud WR early. They need to. As deep as the class is it wouldn't be terrible to draft two. I know they've taken many in recent drafts, but I just don't think Lazard and Allison are what they want or need. If they actually do go out and get Austin Hooper, their offense is going to look completely different from a targets piechart perspective. Adams gets 170 because he is their dominant #1 WR and that's how that's going to be. But Lazard and Allison will be getting scraps behind the new rookie and Hooper (if he goes there, who knows if he does). To be clear, if they don't get Hooper, I am still saying this early rookie will ascend and take the #2 spot.
I agree with them taking a wr very early, I'm just not sure he ends up the starter this season or right away. We dont see that very often in general in the NFL... or maybe just as Packer fans we dont see that often. Even Adams was third string for a while as a 2nd rounder. I cant remember the last rookie who went right into a wr2 role... maybe Jordy Nelson? Javon Walker?
