Don’t think we have seen enough of him and SF’s current system to pull the trigger where he is currently going. Think his floor/ceiling are way too variable right now. Maybe that would clear up a bit in preseason. But I am excited about SF in general just don’t know I want to hang my FF season on any of their parts.
Where are you seeing him go?
According to
this ADP Kittle is being drafted at 128 or round 11 in a 12 team league. He is the 10th TE selected.
Now Hunter Henry is still being drafted in this sample at 107 so you likely should anticipate that Kittle might be drafted as high as that, in the 9th round as the 10th TE selected.
According to this ADP Kittle is being drafted 121 or round 11 in a 12 team league. He is the 12th TE selected.
This ADP seems more recent to me. Makes a bit more sense than the MFL ADP.
The TE being selected after Kittle are Njoku and OJ Howard who I would likely take before him because I think they are better players, but any of these 3 are players who I would like to have on my team.
As a rookie Kittle was TE 19 last season. In 15 games with 7 starts he had 63 targets 43 receptions 515 yards 12 ypr 2 TD 68% catch rate.
These are not bad numbers for a rookie TE and if he can improve slightly with a better catch rate for example, as well as gets more targets, he could finish higher than TE 19 which is perhaps what to consider as his floor numbers or worth.
In the 5 games with Garoppolo KIttle had 19 targets 15 receptions 324 yards in those last 5 games. The last 3 games being pretty solid, so showing him growing in the offense.
He generated 62% of his yards with Garapolo in these last 5 games, although he did break out in game 5 of the season against the Colts with 9 targets 7 receptions 83 yards and a TD. That game was followed by 8 targets 4 receptions 46 yards against Washington. This was 88% of Kittles total yards from these two games and the last 5 weeks of the season. He missed game 10 and he pretty much disappeared (was hurt) from games 7-12 the 49ers did play a difficult stretch of defenses over this time frame as well perhaps contributing to that also.
If I extrapolate the 5 games of Kittles production with Garoppolo to a 16 game season it would be 61 targets 48 receptions (79% catch rate) 1037 yards 3 TD
The yards are so high because Kittle averaged 21.6 yards per reception from Garoppolo. Now that is not likely sustainable, but the big play ability is there and Garoppolo knows how to find him. This is a terrific number showing Kittles speed is translating and that he has big play ability. The catch rate is well above average as well, showing that there is going to be some consistency of these two connecting.
I think Kittle could have 80 targets this season, which would be a slight increase to 5 targets per game instead of the 4.2 targets per game he had as a rookie. The upside would be 100 targets and downside 60 targets (about what he did last year).
80 targets at 73% catch rate would be 58 receptions at 12 ypr is 701 yards 3 TD 88 points in standard scoring leagues or 146 in PPR leagues. These points would have finished as TE 12 using the average points scored of the last 3 years
So I think he is worth the price at around pick 120 where current ADP shows him to be. I don't think I would take him over Njoku though. Howard is a tougher call for me as Brate is still there in his way. Kittle is in a better situation to be their most targeted TE as he was last season.