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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots


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If  NE's RB usage patterns give you pause something to consider, not a decision maker as there is a lot to consider here but a reason why I think this is a good landing spot for Michel and not worried

Just heard a 15 minute discussion about this exact issue on the radio. Last year, when Michel was in the game he got the ball 85% of the time. Because of that, teams have been playing 8 in the box. As

Let’s not exaggerate. It’s only been 22. 

11 hours ago, Faust said:

NFL MVP Odds: Only 3 players ahead of Carson Wentz

Interesting that only 3 running backs were given better odds than Michel to become league MVP, and those running backs were Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkely.

Running backs with the same odds as Michel? 

Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, and Todd Gurley.

The more interesting thing is that anyone gives a running back higher than 0% odds to win the MVP.

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Patriots placed RB Sony Michel (knee) on the active/PUP.

Michel can be activated at any time and is not expected in danger of missing the beginning of the season. The second-year running back had his knee scoped earlier this offseason but has reportedly been making progress since. Michel's knee troubles go back years and will remain a concern for the rest of his career. The rushing touchdown upside keeps him in play as an RB2, but rookie RB Damien Harris is a name to know.

SOURCE: Field Yates on Twitter

Jul 21, 2019, 4:32 PM ET

 

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Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio announced RB Sony Michel (knee) will return to practice on Saturday.

It was a short stint on the active/PUP list for Michel, but the questions and potential concerns about his knee issue are likely far from over. Michel, who had his knee scoped in the offseason, missed most of OTAs. Still, if we consider the role Michel played at the end of the season for the Patriots, "namely touchdown scorer," Michel could be in for a massive second season if fully fit. Third-round pick Damien Harris looms.

SOURCE: Zack Cox on Twitter

Jul 27, 2019, 9:14 AM ET

 

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The Athletic's Jeff Howe reports the Patriots are "really taking it easy" on Sony Michel's knee in the early days of camp.

Michel has been cleared, but the team is keeping him in bubble wrap. It wouldn't be surprising if the Pats hold Michel out for the entire preseason. For now, third-round rookie Damien Harris is showing well. By all accounts, he is a threat to Michel's workload.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Jul 30, 2019, 5:06 PM ET

 

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Nora Princiotti @NoraPrinciotti

Sony Michel has been split out wide a lot today. Wonder if the Patriots want to use him more as a pass catcher this year

 

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Kevin Duffy @KevinRDuffy

Sony Michel saw increased work for the second straight day. He’s moving well.

 

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The Athletic's Jeff Howe reports Sony Michel is "beating man coverage" and "finding soft spots in zones" as a pass-catcher at Patriots camp.

Howe adds that the second-year pro has looked "far more proficient" as a pass-catcher this year after struggling with route running in his rookie season. It's unlikely the Patriots look to Michel to catch the ball frequently with both James White and Rex Burkhead efficient as they come at the position, but the former's added layer is certainly noteworthy. It's still likely rookie Damien Harris outright splits Michel's role to open the year.

SOURCE: Jeff Howe on Twitter

Aug 5, 2019, 4:14 PM ET

 

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7 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Where are we at on him?  I kind of started backing away from him in mocks, but everything sounds like it's All system's go

IMO, places that are giving Michel a big workload across the season are probably missing that BB will want to keep Michel fresh for the playoffs. Just like last year or Lewis before that, I would expect Michel doesn't get run into the group but will see a lot more work down the stretch. Probably a good player to get in season and then ride during fantasy playoff season. Knock on wood, the other NE backs area ll healthy (unlike many other years), so they will likely use them all in some capacity. I doubt NE really uses him much as a receiver. I think its more the hope of keeping defenses honest to have to account for him running routes. In key situations, White will be the one on the field catching passes, not Michel.

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Don’t know about all the hype. Not buying into it. Love how So little is written and said about James White when he’s clearly the Patriot to own in PPR. He’s got his own role and the rest of the backfield is just a carousel.

Edited by BigAl21
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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

IMO, places that are giving Michel a big workload across the season are probably missing that BB will want to keep Michel fresh for the playoffs. Just like last year or Lewis before that, I would expect Michel doesn't get run into the group but will see a lot more work down the stretch. Probably a good player to get in season and then ride during fantasy playoff season. Knock on wood, the other NE backs area ll healthy (unlike many other years), so they will likely use them all in some capacity. I doubt NE really uses him much as a receiver. I think its more the hope of keeping defenses honest to have to account for him running routes. In key situations, White will be the one on the field catching passes, not Michel.

The thing with Michel is that most of his value is tied to GL TDs so his capped level of touches isn’t quite as concerning to me. 

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4 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

IMO, places that are giving Michel a big workload across the season are probably missing that BB will want to keep Michel fresh for the playoffs. Just like last year or Lewis before that, I would expect Michel doesn't get run into the group but will see a lot more work down the stretch. Probably a good player to get in season and then ride during fantasy playoff season. Knock on wood, the other NE backs area ll healthy (unlike many other years), so they will likely use them all in some capacity. I doubt NE really uses him much as a receiver. I think its more the hope of keeping defenses honest to have to account for him running routes. In key situations, White will be the one on the field catching passes, not Michel.

I've learned not to trust NE RBs until mid season and later, when attrition and the need for stretch run wins force Big Bellie to show his hand. He always saves the best for last. 

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Sony Michel rushed 10 times for 36 yards in New England's Week 3 preseason contest against the Panthers.

He also had two long runs (including an explosive 30-yard dash) nullified by holding penalties. The second-year pro looked extremely shifty in the open field, standing out as more than just a north-south runner. It bodes well that the team leaned on Michel in goal line territory until James Develin punched it in from the one-yard line on a single carry, too. Despite starting the summer with a scroll of red flags, reports out of camp have been nothing but positive for Michel's health entering the season. Thursday's game reaffirmed that. There's still meat on the bone at his current RB24 price tag.

Aug 22, 2019, 8:35 PM ET

 

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New England Patriots: 3 Standouts from Preseason Week 3 vs. Panthers

Excerpt:

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3. Sony Michel, RB

A few weeks ago, Sony Michel was considered the player to look out for whenever he was able to play. This was his first action of the preseason and he looked even better than last year, which is saying a lot. Michel seemed quicker, more agile and like a complete back overall. While his statistics have him sitting at 10 carries for 38 yards, he was far better than that.

3.8 yards per carry isn’t much to write home about for a running back. However, the taps shows that Michel had a run of over 20 yards called back due to a holding penalty that marginally (if at all) affected the second-year back’s run.

Michel had nothing to prove coming into this game and was by far the lead back of this backfield. It would have been nice to see Michel a little in the passing game as reports have said he was working on it during training camp. But seeing him this fresh and loose two weeks before kickoff should excite all the fans.

What might be even better than the cuts he displayed following his knee injury is that he was willing to run through anyone in his way for more yards. Michel was just 69 yards off of 1,000 in his rookie campaign, a number he’s certainly eyeing in the 2019 season and should get to running like this.

 

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1 hour ago, Faust said:

 

 

I doubt it’s a major factor.  

He had 4 TD’s on 6 carries last year.  They know he’s able to punch it in from short. 

Michel still got several TD’s in the post-season.  

I think 3-4 TDs is pretty reasonable for Develin to steal.  

Maybe 18-24 points moves you down, but other rb’s will get vultured by no name running backs a handful of times.

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Kevin Duffy of the Boston Herald believes the Patriots will feed Sony Michel "early and often."

Much of the fantasy community was down on Michel when training camp began, owing to his well-documented knee issues and New England investing a third-round pick on Damien Harris. However, Michel has spent the summer silencing his critics, appearing healthy while looking noticeably more "explosive" than teammates Harris and Rex Burkhead. The 2018 first-rounder is still at risk of losing passing-down work to receiving back James White, but his touchdown upside (he set a rookie record with six touchdowns during the postseason) and expected lead role put him firmly in the RB2 conversation.

SOURCE: Boston Herald

Aug 25, 2019, 10:06 AM ET

 

 

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At first I was having trouble deciding between Fournette and Freeman. But now I’m wondering if Michel is the pick. Freeman doesn’t have Coleman anymore but there is still Ito and Hill who can ball. And he’ll be playing a LOT of games indoors.

Fournette I am still leaning because I think if healthy*, with all the talk of involving him in the passing game and upgrading to Foles, their offense should be improved and he will of course be the focus.

Then we have Michel. Who I essentially wrote off. But word is he has been looking great and you know he is guaranteed 200 carries. Top that off with maaaybe 15 TD’s (it would not surprise me if he led the league) and you have a nice total at seasons end. Question is - will NE move the ball like they have in the past? Blount of course feasted on touches but with Brady older and Gronk gone will they struggle to move the ball in the same fashion they used to? 

I wouldn’t take him over Freeman or Fournette but I’m thinking maybe go receiver over Fournette/Freeman and go Michel in the next round. 

Edited by Elevencents
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Gordon played a bit tonight. The NE offense looked good last week. I do not think the pats Offense will slow down at all, if anything they may run the ball a bit more.... but with more success now that Sony is more acclimated and he is “supposedly” a dual threat back now.

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he's a RB1.take him ahead of the Mixon, Freeman, A. Jones group of RBs. without picking spots, 

barkley,kamara,cmc,conner, elliott, cook, chubb, bell, jacobs(or d. williams ) , gurley - maybe D. Monty, but I'd put michel ahead of the rest of the pack. he's likely to finish as a top 12 RB

probably 1200 yards 12TD

he's golden this season

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So...... am I crazy to think that AB on the Pats makes Sony that much better this season. Pats will be unstoppable, opposing Defenses will have to worry about Edelman, Gordon, and AB..... holy cow. 

Not to mention I imagine the pats should be able to move the ball significantly easier with the best WR in the game.... more leads. More clock to kill. More runs.  

Edited by ahartig
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1 hour ago, santo71 said:

This is my exact thought. If I didn't already have Sony on my squad, I'd spend whatever it took to get him. I think AB makes him a top5 guy.

In PPR leagues,  he won’t sniff top 5 even if healthy all year. And I say that as a fully invested Michel owner.

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2 minutes ago, zamboni said:

In PPR leagues,  he won’t sniff top 5 even if healthy all year. And I say that as a fully invested Michel owner.

Yeah I agree with this. I really want him to pay off for selfish reasons in one league, but despite the offseason reports of his receiving improvement, why give him substantial targets with White being so good as a receiver out of the backfield? If he stays healthy I could see improvement on last year's numbers (over 1,000 yards, maybe double digit TDs?) but that's my most optimistic projection. 

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2 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

guys, you know the Patriots. Michel is going to have his games, but the strength of the Steelers D is the defensive line. It is a long season.

He was in some sort of funk tonight.  I paid attention to him closer in the second half, but the game film will not be kind to him.  He had at least 3 runs in the 4th quarter where he went down with minimal contact.  I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't play much next week either.

The other backs were averaging 5 or 6 ypc.  Sony was at 0.9 on 15 carries. 

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Sony Michel rushed 15 times for 14 yards in the Patriots' Week 1 win over the Steelers.

Michel started and led the Patriots in carries but wasn't effective with his touches. He looked set up for a heavy workload with Damien Harris a healthy scratch, but Rex Burkhead had a larger than expected role. Michel is still the clear favorite for touches going forward. He's in a rebound spot against Miami in Week 2.

Sep 8, 2019, 11:37 PM ET

 

 

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