Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
ZWK's 2019 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ZWK
- Start date
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
From the bottom of the linked article:
I'm guessing that Wentz was dinged by QBASE for strength of schedule coming out of FCS (as would Garoppolo if he weren't mysteriously absent), as well as (like Watson) his relatively short track record as starter.
Note how FO tries to cover their tracks on this score by saying, "Expand the list of quarterback prospects to those with just two years of starting experience, and this group of passers still has a lousy track record. The best of the two-year starters are Joe Flacco, Michael Vick, and Alex Smith. The jury's still out on players such as Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson." The jury's still out? I mean, come on. If an NFL-wide dispersal draft were held today they'd be two of the first 5 players chosen.
ZWK
Footballguy
Garoppolo wasn't in the list because he came out in 2014. He would slide in between Murray and Haskins.
The 2016 QBASE article gives a better explanation of what their formula is based on, as well as a big table of QBASE projections for QBs in the 1996-2016 draft classes.
The 2016 QBASE article gives a better explanation of what their formula is based on, as well as a big table of QBASE projections for QBs in the 1996-2016 draft classes.
ZWK
Footballguy
Football Outsiders has also posted their RB and WR projections, currently behind an ESPN paywall (but they'll post a free and more detailed version at some point).
At RB they love Darrell Henderson, are down on Josh Jacobs, and see the rest of the class as pretty meh (though it has several decent prospects).
At WR they don't see any elite prospects at the top. They're highest on Hakeem Butler before taking projected draft position into account, but after adjusting for draft position he falls to 4th behind Marquise Brown, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and AJ Brown.
I'll post more details once they do.
At RB they love Darrell Henderson, are down on Josh Jacobs, and see the rest of the class as pretty meh (though it has several decent prospects).
At WR they don't see any elite prospects at the top. They're highest on Hakeem Butler before taking projected draft position into account, but after adjusting for draft position he falls to 4th behind Marquise Brown, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and AJ Brown.
I'll post more details once they do.
Zyphros
Footballguy
This is where staying ahead of the curve a bit gets me in trouble. I've loved AJ Brown for months, he gets so little hype and yet he's still behind those guys in someone's rankings? I start to get nervous a little bit about what opinions I've made on certain players with how little they are talking about them. AJ Brown being the best example.
ZWK
Footballguy
With pro days mostly in, here is how this RB class is looking (using my standard tier labels):
Wow: Darrell Henderson
Guys I like a lot:
Guys I like:
Awkwardly between tiers: Darwin Thompson
Guys who have a decent chance: Darrin Hall, Trayveon Williams, Miles Sanders, Damarea Crockett, Bryce Love, Justice Hill, Dexter Williams
Guys I can't rule out: Mike Weber, Kerrith Whyte, Jr., Devin Singletary, Ty Johnson, Devine Ozigbo, Travis Homer, Alex Barnes, Damien Harris, David Montgomery, Qadree Ollison, Ryquell Armstead, A.J. Ouellette, Josh Jacobs, Benny Snell, Jr., Karan Higdon, Alexander Mattison, Myles Gaskin, Rodney Anderson
Historically, guys on Henderson's tier have usually been named "Saquon", the "like a lot" and "like" tiers have usually contained players, guys on Thompson's tier and above usually get drafted in the first 3 rounds, the "decent chance" tier doesn't have a great hit rate but includes some studs and solid RBs, and the "can't rule out" tier has a pretty awful hit rate despite the occasional Kenyan Drake or Chris Carson. In other words, the formula says go get Henderson, Thompson is a good value, and it's worth looking into the next 7 guys but probably not in rd1.
I decided to take a closer look at the 3 Dars that my formula is spitting out on top, since it's a pretty unusual top 3 and if I rely on this formula I might wind up drafting them in a bunch of leagues. So I brought up some game videos and broke out my old elusiveness charting spreadsheet which I used to use for my Hard to Tackle ratings (before PFF rendered my efforts not worth the time).
I think my charting has two important advantages over PFF. First, I separate plays into "in traffic" and "in space", which helps pinpoint how much the RB is adding since it's much easier to generate yards after contact and missed tackles in space (and some RBs get many more of their touches in space). Second, I use "capped yards after contact", because if an RB slips a tackle at the line of scrimmage and then goes 80 yards untouched for a score then crediting him with 80 yards after contact is giving him way too much credit for that bit of elusiveness.
PFF's yards after contact & missed tackle numbers show Dar. Henderson with otherworldly elusiveness (way ahead of any other RB on record), Dar. Thompson with elite elusiveness (near the front of the pack), and Dar. Hall with really good elusiveness.
My charting rates Henderson & Thompson as having really good elusiveness, and Hall as averageish. Their numbers are here (you need to check other tabs to see how they stack up).
Henderson was amazing in space, especially at the 2nd/3rd level where he was able to make DBs/LBs miss while continuing at speed. That led to a bunch of long TDs and other big plays. Other than that, he seemed averageish at beating defenders (and he rated a bit below average in traffic). He profiles similar to Dalvin Cook and Kenneth Dixon. He doesn't look like he belongs in the "Wow" tier, but I do like him.
Thompson had very good elusiveness numbers both in traffic and in space. Although at least some of that was the weak competition - those extra yards that he picked up against New Mexico State weren't showing up against Michigan State. So he continues to be hard for me to evaluate after watching his games, but I think there is enough there for him to at least like him as a sleeper.
Darrin Hall looked like nothing special, and I would take him behind many of the other guys who my formula has in the same tier.
Wow: Darrell Henderson
Guys I like a lot:
Guys I like:
Awkwardly between tiers: Darwin Thompson
Guys who have a decent chance: Darrin Hall, Trayveon Williams, Miles Sanders, Damarea Crockett, Bryce Love, Justice Hill, Dexter Williams
Guys I can't rule out: Mike Weber, Kerrith Whyte, Jr., Devin Singletary, Ty Johnson, Devine Ozigbo, Travis Homer, Alex Barnes, Damien Harris, David Montgomery, Qadree Ollison, Ryquell Armstead, A.J. Ouellette, Josh Jacobs, Benny Snell, Jr., Karan Higdon, Alexander Mattison, Myles Gaskin, Rodney Anderson
Historically, guys on Henderson's tier have usually been named "Saquon", the "like a lot" and "like" tiers have usually contained players, guys on Thompson's tier and above usually get drafted in the first 3 rounds, the "decent chance" tier doesn't have a great hit rate but includes some studs and solid RBs, and the "can't rule out" tier has a pretty awful hit rate despite the occasional Kenyan Drake or Chris Carson. In other words, the formula says go get Henderson, Thompson is a good value, and it's worth looking into the next 7 guys but probably not in rd1.
I decided to take a closer look at the 3 Dars that my formula is spitting out on top, since it's a pretty unusual top 3 and if I rely on this formula I might wind up drafting them in a bunch of leagues. So I brought up some game videos and broke out my old elusiveness charting spreadsheet which I used to use for my Hard to Tackle ratings (before PFF rendered my efforts not worth the time).
I think my charting has two important advantages over PFF. First, I separate plays into "in traffic" and "in space", which helps pinpoint how much the RB is adding since it's much easier to generate yards after contact and missed tackles in space (and some RBs get many more of their touches in space). Second, I use "capped yards after contact", because if an RB slips a tackle at the line of scrimmage and then goes 80 yards untouched for a score then crediting him with 80 yards after contact is giving him way too much credit for that bit of elusiveness.
PFF's yards after contact & missed tackle numbers show Dar. Henderson with otherworldly elusiveness (way ahead of any other RB on record), Dar. Thompson with elite elusiveness (near the front of the pack), and Dar. Hall with really good elusiveness.
My charting rates Henderson & Thompson as having really good elusiveness, and Hall as averageish. Their numbers are here (you need to check other tabs to see how they stack up).
Henderson was amazing in space, especially at the 2nd/3rd level where he was able to make DBs/LBs miss while continuing at speed. That led to a bunch of long TDs and other big plays. Other than that, he seemed averageish at beating defenders (and he rated a bit below average in traffic). He profiles similar to Dalvin Cook and Kenneth Dixon. He doesn't look like he belongs in the "Wow" tier, but I do like him.
Thompson had very good elusiveness numbers both in traffic and in space. Although at least some of that was the weak competition - those extra yards that he picked up against New Mexico State weren't showing up against Michigan State. So he continues to be hard for me to evaluate after watching his games, but I think there is enough there for him to at least like him as a sleeper.
Darrin Hall looked like nothing special, and I would take him behind many of the other guys who my formula has in the same tier.
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK
Footballguy
Football Outsiders WR rankings. Here are the top 143 WRs since 2014 according to their Playmaker Rating (which does not take into account projected draft position - the writeup on their site instead highlights a different rating which does take that into account and has Marquise Brown on top for this draft class).
Year Name College
2016 Corey Coleman Baylor
2017 Jalen Robinette Air Force
2017 Curtis Samuel Ohio State
2017 Carlos Henderson Louisiana Tech
2017 John Ross Washington
2014 Brandin Cooks Oregon St.
2015 Amari Cooper Alabama
2016 Will Fuller Notre Dame
2019 Hakeem Butler Iowa State
2017 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU
2018 Tre'Quan Smith Central Florida
2018 DJ Moore Maryland
2018 Richie James Middle Tennessee State
2014 Marqise Lee USC
2019 Marquise Brown Oklahoma
2017 Corey Davis Western Michigan
2015 Sammie Coates Auburn
2016 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh
2019 N'Keal Harry Arizona State
2015 Stefon Diggs Maryland
2016 Pharoh Cooper South Carolina
2016 Rashard Higgins Colorado State
2014 Davante Adams Fresno St.
2015 Nelson Agholor Southern California
2014 Allen Robinson Penn St.
2014 Paul Richardson Colorado
2014 Kelvin Benjamin Florida St.
2019 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside Stanford
2015 Breshad Perriman UCF
2017 Chris Godwin Penn State
2014 Mike Evans Texas A&M
2014 Austin Franklin New Mexico St.
2015 DeAndre Smelter Georgia Tech
2017 KD Cannon Baylor
2019 Diontae Johnson Toledo
2015 Titus Davis Central Mich.
2019 Andy Isabella Massachusetts
2019 Dillon Mitchell Oregon
2017 Isaiah Ford Virginia Tech
2014 Martavis Bryant Clemson
2016 Roger Lewis Bowling Green
2017 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M
2014 Sammy Watkins Clemson
2014 Willie Snead Ball St.
2018 Courtland Sutton SMU
2018 Byron Pringle Kansas State
2019 A.J. Brown Ole Miss
2014 Bruce Ellington South Carolina
2019 Antoine Wesley Texas Tech
2017 Shelton Gibson West Virginia
2014 Jarvis Landry LSU
2015 Jaelen Strong Arizona St.
2015 Tyler Lockett Kansas St.
2014 Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
2017 Malachi Dupre LSU
2016 Michael Thomas Ohio State
2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster Southern California
2016 Demarcus Ayers Houston
2017 Taywan Taylor W. Kentucky
2017 Josh Malone Tennessee
2017 Jerome Lane Akron
2016 Bralon Addison Oregon
2018 Korey Robertson Southern Mississippi
2019 Greg Dortch Wake Forest
2018 Anthony Miller Memphis
2017 Isaiah McKenzie Georgia
2018 Christian Kirk Texas A&M
2018 Jordan Lasley UCLA
2019 Darius Slayton Auburn
2014 Cody Latimer Indiana
2018 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
2016 Leonte Carroo Rutgers
2019 Lil'Jordan Humphrey Texas
2015 Devin Smith Ohio St.
2017 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
2019 D.K. Metcalf Ole Miss
2019 Mecole Hardman Georgia
2014 Brandon Coleman Rutgers
2018 Cedrick Wilson Boise State
2014 Josh Huff Oregon
2017 Kenny Golladay Northern Illinois
2015 Devin Funchess Michigan
2018 Deontay Burnett Southern California
2018 Quadree Henderson Pittsburgh
2016 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma
2017 Mike Williams Clemson
2016 Josh Doctson TCU
2019 Anthony Johnson Buffalo
2018 Michael Gallup Colorado State
2019 Cody Thompson Toledo
2018 James Washington Oklahoma State
2018 Auden Tate Florida State
2015 Darren Waller Georgia Tech
2016 Laquon Treadwell Mississippi
2018 Calvin Ridley Alabama
2019 Jovon Durante West Virginia
2017 Chad Hansen California
2018 DJ Chark LSU
2015 Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri
2015 Tony Lippett Michigan St.
2019 Kelvin Harmon North Carolina State
2014 Damian Copeland Louisville
2014 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
2014 Jeremy Gallon Michigan
2019 Jakobi Meyers North Carolina State
2019 David Sills West Virginia
2017 Travis Rudolph Florida State
2015 Antwan Goodley Baylor
2016 Demarcus Robinson Florida
2019 Riley Ridley Georgia
2019 Jalen Hurd Tennessee
2017 Keevan Lucas Tulsa
2015 Phillip Dorsett Miami (FL)
2016 Jalin Marshall Ohio State
2015 Ty Montgomery Stanford
2014 Josh Stewart Oklahoma St.
2016 Mike Thomas Southern Miss.
2014 Tevin Reese Baylor
2018 Simmie Cobbs Indiana
2017 Devante Noil Texas A&M
2016 Cayleb Jones Arizona
2015 Jamarcus Nelson UAB
2015 Da'ron Brown Northern Ill.
2014 Chris Boyd Vanderbilt
2016 Ricardo Louis Auburn
2019 Deebo Samuel South Carolina
2019 Miles Boykin Notre Dame
2018 Deon Cain Clemson
2019 Emanuel Hall Missouri
2014 Quincy Enunwa Nebraska
2015 Chris Conley Georgia
2018 J'Mon Moore Missouri
2016 De'Runnya Wilson Mississippi State
2019 Gary Jennings West Virginia
2017 Artavis Scott Clemson
2018 Antonio Callaway Florida
2016 Kenny Lawler California
2017 Noah Brown Ohio State
2014 Jalen Saunders Oklahoma
2016 Keyarris Garrett Tulsa
2019 Parris Campbell Ohio State
2019 Stanley Morgan Nebraska
Year Name College
2016 Corey Coleman Baylor
2017 Jalen Robinette Air Force
2017 Curtis Samuel Ohio State
2017 Carlos Henderson Louisiana Tech
2017 John Ross Washington
2014 Brandin Cooks Oregon St.
2015 Amari Cooper Alabama
2016 Will Fuller Notre Dame
2019 Hakeem Butler Iowa State
2017 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU
2018 Tre'Quan Smith Central Florida
2018 DJ Moore Maryland
2018 Richie James Middle Tennessee State
2014 Marqise Lee USC
2019 Marquise Brown Oklahoma
2017 Corey Davis Western Michigan
2015 Sammie Coates Auburn
2016 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh
2019 N'Keal Harry Arizona State
2015 Stefon Diggs Maryland
2016 Pharoh Cooper South Carolina
2016 Rashard Higgins Colorado State
2014 Davante Adams Fresno St.
2015 Nelson Agholor Southern California
2014 Allen Robinson Penn St.
2014 Paul Richardson Colorado
2014 Kelvin Benjamin Florida St.
2019 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside Stanford
2015 Breshad Perriman UCF
2017 Chris Godwin Penn State
2014 Mike Evans Texas A&M
2014 Austin Franklin New Mexico St.
2015 DeAndre Smelter Georgia Tech
2017 KD Cannon Baylor
2019 Diontae Johnson Toledo
2015 Titus Davis Central Mich.
2019 Andy Isabella Massachusetts
2019 Dillon Mitchell Oregon
2017 Isaiah Ford Virginia Tech
2014 Martavis Bryant Clemson
2016 Roger Lewis Bowling Green
2017 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M
2014 Sammy Watkins Clemson
2014 Willie Snead Ball St.
2018 Courtland Sutton SMU
2018 Byron Pringle Kansas State
2019 A.J. Brown Ole Miss
2014 Bruce Ellington South Carolina
2019 Antoine Wesley Texas Tech
2017 Shelton Gibson West Virginia
2014 Jarvis Landry LSU
2015 Jaelen Strong Arizona St.
2015 Tyler Lockett Kansas St.
2014 Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
2017 Malachi Dupre LSU
2016 Michael Thomas Ohio State
2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster Southern California
2016 Demarcus Ayers Houston
2017 Taywan Taylor W. Kentucky
2017 Josh Malone Tennessee
2017 Jerome Lane Akron
2016 Bralon Addison Oregon
2018 Korey Robertson Southern Mississippi
2019 Greg Dortch Wake Forest
2018 Anthony Miller Memphis
2017 Isaiah McKenzie Georgia
2018 Christian Kirk Texas A&M
2018 Jordan Lasley UCLA
2019 Darius Slayton Auburn
2014 Cody Latimer Indiana
2018 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
2016 Leonte Carroo Rutgers
2019 Lil'Jordan Humphrey Texas
2015 Devin Smith Ohio St.
2017 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
2019 D.K. Metcalf Ole Miss
2019 Mecole Hardman Georgia
2014 Brandon Coleman Rutgers
2018 Cedrick Wilson Boise State
2014 Josh Huff Oregon
2017 Kenny Golladay Northern Illinois
2015 Devin Funchess Michigan
2018 Deontay Burnett Southern California
2018 Quadree Henderson Pittsburgh
2016 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma
2017 Mike Williams Clemson
2016 Josh Doctson TCU
2019 Anthony Johnson Buffalo
2018 Michael Gallup Colorado State
2019 Cody Thompson Toledo
2018 James Washington Oklahoma State
2018 Auden Tate Florida State
2015 Darren Waller Georgia Tech
2016 Laquon Treadwell Mississippi
2018 Calvin Ridley Alabama
2019 Jovon Durante West Virginia
2017 Chad Hansen California
2018 DJ Chark LSU
2015 Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri
2015 Tony Lippett Michigan St.
2019 Kelvin Harmon North Carolina State
2014 Damian Copeland Louisville
2014 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
2014 Jeremy Gallon Michigan
2019 Jakobi Meyers North Carolina State
2019 David Sills West Virginia
2017 Travis Rudolph Florida State
2015 Antwan Goodley Baylor
2016 Demarcus Robinson Florida
2019 Riley Ridley Georgia
2019 Jalen Hurd Tennessee
2017 Keevan Lucas Tulsa
2015 Phillip Dorsett Miami (FL)
2016 Jalin Marshall Ohio State
2015 Ty Montgomery Stanford
2014 Josh Stewart Oklahoma St.
2016 Mike Thomas Southern Miss.
2014 Tevin Reese Baylor
2018 Simmie Cobbs Indiana
2017 Devante Noil Texas A&M
2016 Cayleb Jones Arizona
2015 Jamarcus Nelson UAB
2015 Da'ron Brown Northern Ill.
2014 Chris Boyd Vanderbilt
2016 Ricardo Louis Auburn
2019 Deebo Samuel South Carolina
2019 Miles Boykin Notre Dame
2018 Deon Cain Clemson
2019 Emanuel Hall Missouri
2014 Quincy Enunwa Nebraska
2015 Chris Conley Georgia
2018 J'Mon Moore Missouri
2016 De'Runnya Wilson Mississippi State
2019 Gary Jennings West Virginia
2017 Artavis Scott Clemson
2018 Antonio Callaway Florida
2016 Kenny Lawler California
2017 Noah Brown Ohio State
2014 Jalen Saunders Oklahoma
2016 Keyarris Garrett Tulsa
2019 Parris Campbell Ohio State
2019 Stanley Morgan Nebraska
They do not pro-rate stats for missed games, which works against guys like DK Metcalf and Emanuel Hall.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think it is interesting that FBO rated DeDe Westbrook ahead of Marquise Brown. My brief impression of watching the two players tends to agree with that, which is why I wonder about how highly some have Brown ranked.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here are a few top 8 WR prospect lists, each from analytics-minded folks.
ZWK Formula
D.K. Metcalf
Emanuel Hall
Hakeem Butler
A.J. Brown
N'Keal Harry
Gary Jennings
Andy Isabella
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Playmaker Rating
Hakeem Butler
Marquise Brown
N'Keal Harry
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Diontae Johnson
Andy Isabella
Dillon Mitchell
A.J. Brown
PFF Grade
Andy Isabella
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Parris Campbell
Marquise Brown
Greg Dortch
Emanuel Hall
Damion Willis
Preston Williams
Hayden Winks PPR Projection
Andy Isabella
N’Keal Harry
Kelvin Harmon
D.K. Metcalf
A.J. Brown
Gary Jennings
KeeSean Johnson
Parris Campbell
None of these take into account projected draft position. The PFF Grade is only based on 2018 season on-the-field performance; the others use formulas which also incorporate things like combine workouts, age, and previous seasons. Hayden Winks PPR Projection was only done for WRs who worked out at the combine (so JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Marquise Brown aren't included).
I went with top 8 because there is a clear tier drop in the ZWK Formula after WR8.
Only one name appears on all 4 lists: Andy Isabella. On 3 lists there's N'Keal Harry, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and A.J. Brown (with Arcega-Whiteside ineligible for the 4th list because he skipped the combine workout). On 2 lists are Hakeem Butler, D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, Emanuel Hall, and Gary Jennings. And on just 1 list we have Kelvin Harmon, Greg Dortch, Diontae Johnson, KeeSean Johnson, Damion Willis, Dillon Mitchell, and Preston Williams.
ZWK Formula
D.K. Metcalf
Emanuel Hall
Hakeem Butler
A.J. Brown
N'Keal Harry
Gary Jennings
Andy Isabella
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Playmaker Rating
Hakeem Butler
Marquise Brown
N'Keal Harry
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Diontae Johnson
Andy Isabella
Dillon Mitchell
A.J. Brown
PFF Grade
Andy Isabella
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Parris Campbell
Marquise Brown
Greg Dortch
Emanuel Hall
Damion Willis
Preston Williams
Hayden Winks PPR Projection
Andy Isabella
N’Keal Harry
Kelvin Harmon
D.K. Metcalf
A.J. Brown
Gary Jennings
KeeSean Johnson
Parris Campbell
None of these take into account projected draft position. The PFF Grade is only based on 2018 season on-the-field performance; the others use formulas which also incorporate things like combine workouts, age, and previous seasons. Hayden Winks PPR Projection was only done for WRs who worked out at the combine (so JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Marquise Brown aren't included).
I went with top 8 because there is a clear tier drop in the ZWK Formula after WR8.
Only one name appears on all 4 lists: Andy Isabella. On 3 lists there's N'Keal Harry, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and A.J. Brown (with Arcega-Whiteside ineligible for the 4th list because he skipped the combine workout). On 2 lists are Hakeem Butler, D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, Emanuel Hall, and Gary Jennings. And on just 1 list we have Kelvin Harmon, Greg Dortch, Diontae Johnson, KeeSean Johnson, Damion Willis, Dillon Mitchell, and Preston Williams.
ZWK
Footballguy
I also rate Westbrook ahead of Marquise Brown as a prospect. Westbrook had a bigger year in 2016 than Brown did in 2018. 80/1524/17 receiving for Westbrook vs. 75/1318/10 for Brown, and Westbrook's season also comes out ahead in other stats like YPT or market share. Apart from production: Westbrook's big weakness was how thin he was but Brown's BMI is just as low; Brown's big strength is his speed but I have Westbrook with a 4.41 (pro day time after adjustment) and it's hard to project a guy who didn't run as much faster than that.
ZWK
Footballguy
One RB analysis that has been going around is Adam Levitan's minimum RB thresholds. He defines a minimum threshold on each of 6 combine numbers (ht, wt, bench, 40, vert, broad), picking the threshold so that about 90% of his sample of 26 successful RBs met each threshold. Then he notes how many of the thresholds each RB in this draft class met.
I am not a fan of this style of analysis. One problem is that it doesn't do a good job of distinguishing between stats that are very important vs. stats that are slightly important (or even completely unimportant). If you pick any stat (even something silly like "day of month on which player was born") it will have some distribution, and then you can pick a cutoff such that about 90% of the successful RBs met that cutoff. Extreme scores on any distribution are rare, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're a bad sign - e.g. it's fairly unusual for a RB to be born on the 28th of the month or later, but that doesn't mean that we should be worried that Ryquell Armstead was born on October 29th. From my look at historical RBs, 40 time is very important, weight is important, vertical & broad are both important (but they're basically measuring the same thing so it's better to combine them into an overall explosiveness rating), bench only matters slightly, and being short is completely irrelevant except insofar as it's related to low weight (so it's better to ignore height and just look at weight). So doing something with 40 time, weight, and jumps seems useful, while throwing bench & height in there on the same footing is mostly just adding noise.
There is also a risk of overfitting to historical data when you set thresholds. A broad jump of 118" isn't that different from 117" or 119"; if there happened to be several successful RBs who jumped 118" but (almost) none who jumped 117" then you can set your threshold in between those lengths and it will look like a better fit to historical data. But then you're basically just fitting it to noise in how things happened to cluster. That can make it seem like you're on to something (that successful RBs met these thresholds more often than unsuccessful RBs), especially if you get to fine-tune 6 different thresholds, but you shouldn't actually expect much difference between a new RB prospect who jumps 117" and one who jumps 118".
But the biggest problem with using thresholds is that most of the stats that matter for predicting NFL success don't have a threshold nature. RBs don't basically divide into those that are too slow (over 4.60 forty time) and those whose speed is fine (sub 4.60). Speed helps a RB succeed, and the faster the better. Going from 4.65 to 4.55 helps, and going from 4.55 to 4.45 helps, and going from 4.45 to 4.35 helps too by about as much. And so if you just look at "Did this guy run a 4.60 or faster?" then you're throwing away most of the information that you get from the 40. You're successfully noting that guys like Devin Singletary are worryingly slow, but you're not distinguishing at all between the 4.35 guy and the 4.55 guy (you're similarly not distinguishing between Kareem Hunt's 4.62 and Antonio Andrews's 4.82).
My preferred way to look at combine numbers is to take a weighted average. That lets every 0.01s of 40 time matter, and it lets you choose to place more importance on 40 time than on bench press. Here are those numbers again (using my weights; someone else who took a weighted average would presumably do some things differently but I expect that their ratings would be highly correlated with mine):
I am not a fan of this style of analysis. One problem is that it doesn't do a good job of distinguishing between stats that are very important vs. stats that are slightly important (or even completely unimportant). If you pick any stat (even something silly like "day of month on which player was born") it will have some distribution, and then you can pick a cutoff such that about 90% of the successful RBs met that cutoff. Extreme scores on any distribution are rare, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're a bad sign - e.g. it's fairly unusual for a RB to be born on the 28th of the month or later, but that doesn't mean that we should be worried that Ryquell Armstead was born on October 29th. From my look at historical RBs, 40 time is very important, weight is important, vertical & broad are both important (but they're basically measuring the same thing so it's better to combine them into an overall explosiveness rating), bench only matters slightly, and being short is completely irrelevant except insofar as it's related to low weight (so it's better to ignore height and just look at weight). So doing something with 40 time, weight, and jumps seems useful, while throwing bench & height in there on the same footing is mostly just adding noise.
There is also a risk of overfitting to historical data when you set thresholds. A broad jump of 118" isn't that different from 117" or 119"; if there happened to be several successful RBs who jumped 118" but (almost) none who jumped 117" then you can set your threshold in between those lengths and it will look like a better fit to historical data. But then you're basically just fitting it to noise in how things happened to cluster. That can make it seem like you're on to something (that successful RBs met these thresholds more often than unsuccessful RBs), especially if you get to fine-tune 6 different thresholds, but you shouldn't actually expect much difference between a new RB prospect who jumps 117" and one who jumps 118".
But the biggest problem with using thresholds is that most of the stats that matter for predicting NFL success don't have a threshold nature. RBs don't basically divide into those that are too slow (over 4.60 forty time) and those whose speed is fine (sub 4.60). Speed helps a RB succeed, and the faster the better. Going from 4.65 to 4.55 helps, and going from 4.55 to 4.45 helps, and going from 4.45 to 4.35 helps too by about as much. And so if you just look at "Did this guy run a 4.60 or faster?" then you're throwing away most of the information that you get from the 40. You're successfully noting that guys like Devin Singletary are worryingly slow, but you're not distinguishing at all between the 4.35 guy and the 4.55 guy (you're similarly not distinguishing between Kareem Hunt's 4.62 and Antonio Andrews's 4.82).
My preferred way to look at combine numbers is to take a weighted average. That lets every 0.01s of 40 time matter, and it lets you choose to place more importance on 40 time than on bench press. Here are those numbers again (using my weights; someone else who took a weighted average would presumably do some things differently but I expect that their ratings would be highly correlated with mine):
I think Brown is a slightly better player than Westbrook, but Westbrook has also been unlucky to be saddled with Bortles/Kessler his entire pro career. If he'd have been drafted by say, New Orleans, maybe he's putting up big numbers.
I have Brown as a 1st/2nd border pick, and had Westbrook as a mid 2nd rounder. Westbrook only went later in the draft because he had 2 separate domestic violence arrests.
On the other hand, if he had been born on February 29th it would completely skew his breakout age and age-adjusted dominator metrics: ”He had 1000 yards and accounted 35% of his team’s offense, and hasn’t even reached his sixth birthday yet!”
(Seriously though...excellent post. Good analysis of why some analytics are more rational than others.)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Maybe he is. Maybe he is more than slightly better, as well. Only time will tell.
Im just not sure Brown will be a 1st round pick or be in the top 3 WR drafted, despite some folks who seem to think that he will. Its something that has made me wonder about why Brown is ranked so highly by prominent members of the draft media as he is, when I do not recall similar interest in Westbrook when he was coming out.
You bring up a good point about the character issues with Westbrook. He was drafted in the 4th round by the Jaguars. Maybe if not for the baggage he would have been a 2nd or 3rd round pick instead.
Brown did perform at a younger age than Westbrook did. Westbrook was a 24 year old rookie, so perhaps another reason he wasn't drafted higher than he was.
There seems to be a lot of similarities between the 2 players. Same school. Similar size. Similar speed. Similar production in college although Westbrook was doing this at an older age.
I had to look it up and I had Westbrook as borderline tier two, at the top of tier 3. in my 2017 rankings. My memory was fonder of him than where I ranked him. I forgot some of the flaws he had and why I wasn't willing to make him tier two.
It will be interesting to see how high he actually goes in the NFL draft.
Contrary to recent rumors, I think the 1st round will be very WR heavy. I could easily see as many as 5 WR's go in round 1, and I expect Brown(both Browns for that matter) to be among them. A lot of teams in that 20-32 range could be looking at WR, and each one will likely rank them differently.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah maybe it will. I just don't think Brown is one of them.
If so then folks like McShay and Kiper are more off than usual.
I do think Marquise Brown is a good player. He is so small though, it is hard for me to see him going in the 1st round.
TY Hilton would be the most recent comparison to have success in the NFL. He was a 3rd round pick.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Big difference is M. Brown went to a major college program while TY went to FIU.
The level of competition is quite different.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think so too. especially with a lot of teams in the back half of the round needing some wrs
Why do you see Marquis Brown going round 1? I just dont understand the hype behind him at all. He will look like a JV player out there with how small he is...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thats fair. I was trying to think of a successful WR of similar size recently. Tyreek Hill would be another one.
I can't think of one as light as Brown who has been a 1st round pick.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
That would be a better example.
This isn't meant to nitpicked because everyone has a different history, He probably would have been a D1 player without his history. I think he took his college route due to his troubled youth. But since he didn't end up at D1 his level of competition is more similar to TY.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
I think with the way passing games are being built more and more in recent years, size is becoming less and less of a prerequisite. Hollywood separates as well as anyone, and is very good after the catch. I think there is this idea that he's a deep threat only, and that isn't really true. He's a very good WR in the intermediate levels, and can be schemed away from jams, in much the way that Tyreek Hill often is. I think people would like Brown more if he'd had a combine, he likely would have been around a 4.30 40. He ran a 4.33 when he transferred from JUCO, and that was with almost no exposure to weight training or nutrition.
I think Hollywood might be a bit of a mold breaker. I think, if he had the same quicks, and route running skill and weighed 190, he'd be the WR1 on everyone's board, and a top-10 pick. He'll get slowed by some more physical corners, but what if they whiff on jams? That was always a big issue when physical guys played prime D-Jax. They'd shut him down most of the game, but then they'd miss once or twice, and he'd finish with 3-75-1, and DB's seemingly get away with less holding now, then even 5 years ago.
Then again, I could be wrong, and I could just like him more than the NFL does. I'm a separation is the #1 trait for a WR guy. Its part of why I have almost no interest in Harmon, and very little in Harry, yet am a huge fan of Isabella and Hollywood.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Even Hilton has 17 pounds on Brown. Brown is basically inbetween JJ Neslon and Desean Jackson.
Last edited by a moderator:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
interesting.
I think so many people want the next Hill, which is why Brown has appeal I guess.
Even if he had 15 pounds I'd feel better. I just cant get over it...
Who do you like better long term- Brown or Anthony Miller?
I admit, he looks electric and unguardable due to his speed.
Last edited by a moderator:
Brown by quite a bit, and I'm a Bears fan. Brown will likely end up in at least as good an offense, and almost certainly will have a better QB.
I wouldn't rule out Brown gaining some more weight. By his own admission, he never lifted weights until 2017.
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK
Footballguy
Draftscout now has everyone's pro day numbers. Arcega-Whiteside's solid 40 time holds up in their numbers at 4.50, as do the fast times of WR Damion Willis (4.51), RB Kerrith Whyte (4.37), RB Ty Johnson (4.40), and TE Dawson Knox (4.59). Some others do not: updated slower 40 times cause Darwin Thompson (4.55), Darrin Hall (4.52), Damarea Crockett (4.50), and Devine Ozigbo (4.65) to slide down my RB rankings.Pro day results so far (mostly from draftscout and Walter Football
WR Preston Williams (draftscout): 4.61 forty, 31.5 vert, 116 broad, 4.35 shuttle, 7.11 cone
WR Greg Dortch (draftscout): 4.59 forty, 33 vert, 109 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.89 cone
WR Anthony Johnson (draftscout): 4.55 forty
WR Scott Miller (draftscout): 4.36 forty, 34 vert, 123 broad, 4.02 shuttle, 6.97 cone, 15 bench
WR John Ursua (news): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 120 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.77 cone, 17 bench
WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams (news): 4.46 forty, 35, vert, 14 bench
WR Damion Willis (wf): 4.48 forty, 7.00 cone
WR Antoine Wesley (wf) 4.65 forty
RB Josh Jacobs (draftscout): 4.64 forty, 35 vert, 112 broad, 18 bench
RB D.J. Knox (draftscout): 4.75 forty, 29.5 vert, 108 broad, 4.46 shuttle, 7.54 cone, 30 bench
RB Devine Ozigbo (wf): 4.54 forty, 37 vert, 124 broad, 19 bench
RB Darrin Hall (wf): 4.42 forty, 32 vert, 122 broad, 6.72 cone, 27 bench
RB Damarea Crockett (wf): 4.40 forty, 37 vert
RB Kerrith Whyte, Jr. (wf): 4.36 forty, 42 vert, 132 broad, 21 bench
EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (wf): 4.75 forty, 32 vert, 117 broad, 24 bench, 6'4" ht, 271 lb., 34.3" arms
These are the forty times that the source reported, but for my ratings I'm adding an additional 0.02 to the draftscout forty times and 0.05 to all the other forty times given here since pro day forty times tend to run fast. (Do pro day short shuttle and 3 cone times also tend to run fast? I haven't looked into that, but it's less important since they play a much smaller role in my evaluations.)
At WR, Scott Miller & Damion Willis move up, Antoine Wesley moves down. The 3 of them are now rated close to each other in the WR10-15 range between Stanley Morgan and Anthony Johnson.
At RB, Darrin Hall, Damarea Crockett, and Kerrith Whyte move up and Jacobs moves down. Darrin Hall is the big riser - my formula now has him at the top of the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier - so I'm going to take a closer look at him and fill in some missing data. Crockett, Whyte, and Jacobs are all in the "can't rule him out" tier.
I would like to see workout numbers for WR Marquise Brown, WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Keelan Doss, WR Jalen Hurd, RB Darwin Thompson, RB Maleek Irons, RB Bryce Love, RB Ty Johnson, RB AJ Ouellete, TE CJ Conrad, EDGE Nate Harvey, EDGE EJ Ejiya, and EDGE Ronheen Bingham. Early reports are that Ty Johnson ran fast but they are extremely sketchy reports.
QB Kyler Murray didn't work out and I think that RB Rodney Anderson isn't going to work out either.
WR Preston Williams (draftscout): 4.61 forty, 31.5 vert, 116 broad, 4.35 shuttle, 7.11 cone
WR Greg Dortch (draftscout): 4.59 forty, 33 vert, 109 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.89 cone
WR Anthony Johnson (draftscout): 4.55 forty
WR Scott Miller (draftscout): 4.36 forty, 34 vert, 123 broad, 4.02 shuttle, 6.97 cone, 15 bench
WR Antoine Wesley (nflds): 4.68 forty
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside (nflds): 4.50 forty, 34 vert, 119 broad, 4.41 shuttle, 7.23 cone
WR Jalen Hurd (nflds): 4.64 forty, 35.5 vert, 124 broad, 4.15 shuttle
WR John Ursua (nflds): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 120 broad, 4.16 shuttle, 6.77 cone, 17 bench
WR Damion Willis (nflds): 4.51 forty, 33.5 vert, 110 broad, 4.50 shuttle, 7.04 cone, 13 bench
WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams (nflds): 4.57 forty, 35 vert, 126 broad, 4.38 shuttle, 6.90 cone, 14 bench
WR Keelan Doss (nflds): 4.56 forty, 36 vert, 124 broad
TE Dawson Knox (nflds): 4.59 forty, 34 vert, 122 broad, 4.31 shuttle, 7.02 cone
TE CJ Conrad (nflds): 4.80 forty, 33 vert, 113 broad, 4.41 shuttle, 7.14 cone, 21 bench
RB Josh Jacobs (draftscout): 4.64 forty, 35 vert, 112 broad, 18 bench
RB D.J. Knox (draftscout): 4.75 forty, 29.5 vert, 108 broad, 4.46 shuttle, 7.54 cone, 30 bench
RB Maleek Irons (news): 4.59 forty, 33.5 vert, 119 broad, 4.21 shuttle, 7.20 cone, 18 bench
RB AJ Ouellete (nflds): 4.56 forty, 36.5 vert, 117 broad, 4.09 shuttle, 6.84 cone, 32 bench
RB Darrin Hall (nflds): 4.52 forty, 32 vert, 122 broad, 4.03 shuttle, 6.94 cone, 27 bench
RB Damarea Crockett (nflds): 4.50 forty, 37 vert, 119 broad, 4.32 shuttle, 7.43 cone, 21 bench
RB Ty Johnson (nflds): 4.40 forty, 34.5 vert, 123 broad, 13 bench
RB Devine Ozigbo (nflds): 4.65 forty, 37 vert, 124 broad, 4.27 shuttle, 6.95 cone, 19 bench
RB Kerrith Whyte, Jr. (nflds): 4.37 forty, 42 vert, 132 broad, 4.37 shuttle, 7.20 cone, 21 bench
RB Darwin Thompson (nflds): 4.55 forty, 39 vert, 126 broad, 4.30 shuttle, 6.93 cone, 23 bench
RB Nico Evans (nflds): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 122 broad, 4.38 shuttle, 7.41 cone, 22 bench
RB LJ Scott (nflds): 4.70 forty
EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (nflds): 4.82 forty, 32 vert, 117 broad, 5.12 shuttle, 8.08 cone, 24 bench
EDGE Nate Harvey (nflds): 5.01 forty, 29 vert, 106 broad, 4.45 shuttle, 7.24 cone, 20 bench
EDGE EJ Ejiya (nflds): 4.82 forty, 35.5 vert, 118 broad, 4.30 shuttle, 7.22 cone, 18 bench
DL Ed Oliver (nflds): 4.73 forty, 4.22 shuttle, 7.15 cone
It looks like WR Marquise Brown, RB Bryce Love, RB Rodney Anderson, and EDGE Ronheen Bingham won't be working out due to injury, and QB Kyler Murray won't by choice.
Well these aren't up to the minute, they are all official athletic stats from recruitment, and better than nothing.
Marquise Brown was clocked at 4.33 in the 40 as a JUCO transfer in 2017.
Bryce Love clocked in at 4.30 in the 40, 4.21 shuttle and 37 inch vertical as a 2015 prospect.
Rodney Anderson had a 4.63 40, 3.97 shuttle, and 36 inch vertical as a 2015 prospect.
Ronheen Bingham had a 4,78 40 as a JUCO transfer in 2017.
Kyler Murray had a 4.38 40 time as a JUCO transfer in 2017, while just recovered from a hamstring pull while playing baseball. Many teammates believe him to be faster than Marquise Brown. Beats Vick's time(4.41) in 2001.
ZWK
Footballguy
No, those are the numbers being reported by Draftscout. I add another 0.02 to their 40 times for my estimates. I have been adding 0.05 to other sources but it looks like I should up that to 0.07 given the gap between these new Draftscout times and the earlier reports.
Those tell us something, but these "someone with the team claimed" times are less reliable than Draftscout pro day numbers and probably also less reliable than news reports of Pro Day times.
I did find this tweet about Marquise Brown's on-the-field speed, although I don't know the methodology behind it:
ZWK
Footballguy
Players who are attending the draft:
QB Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones
TE: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant
WR: DK Metcalf, Marquise Brown
RB: Josh Jacobs
(Plus a bunch of guys who don't get yards or touchdowns.)
Dwayne Haskins is the most notable missing name. I'm not sure if he didn't get an invite or if he turned it down. This gives some teeth to the rumors that he is not as high on draft boards as the public draft community thought.
My analytics aren't especially high on Daniel Jones, Marquise Brown, or Josh Jacobs, but this is a strong sign that they have a good chance of getting drafted in the first round. I do think that the evaluations of NFL teams tell us a lot about players (even though this thread is mostly about me trying to form my independent impressions which ignore that sort of thing). If all 3 are in fact 1st rounders, then I'll wind up being most on board with Marquise Brown (who had had good production but is hurt in his ratings by his lack of size) and least on board with Daniel Jones (who had mediocre production), with Josh Jacobs in between and closer to Brown.
QB Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones
TE: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant
WR: DK Metcalf, Marquise Brown
RB: Josh Jacobs
(Plus a bunch of guys who don't get yards or touchdowns.)
Dwayne Haskins is the most notable missing name. I'm not sure if he didn't get an invite or if he turned it down. This gives some teeth to the rumors that he is not as high on draft boards as the public draft community thought.
My analytics aren't especially high on Daniel Jones, Marquise Brown, or Josh Jacobs, but this is a strong sign that they have a good chance of getting drafted in the first round. I do think that the evaluations of NFL teams tell us a lot about players (even though this thread is mostly about me trying to form my independent impressions which ignore that sort of thing). If all 3 are in fact 1st rounders, then I'll wind up being most on board with Marquise Brown (who had had good production but is hurt in his ratings by his lack of size) and least on board with Daniel Jones (who had mediocre production), with Josh Jacobs in between and closer to Brown.
ZWK
Footballguy
It looks like Matt Harmon's Reception Perception will not be producing data on this WR class. Apparently he doesn't have access to college all-22 film, which he was able to get for the previous few draft classes. He is still doing writeups about a bunch of WR prospects which make for interesting reads, but IMO those are much less useful than the hard numbers (especially in terms of how much new insight they add beyond what is already part of the draft discussion). His summary of what he's up to:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
If Marquise Brown goes in the late 1st round to an averageish situation then he's probably around dynasty WR #27 (before adding the other rookies) and a mid to late 1st round rookie pick. Similar to Lockett, Watkins, Sutton. Probably similar to Arcega-Whiteside and Isabella if they go in the 2nd round.
Biggest plus is the combination of early draft pick and strong college production. If a highly drafted WR has poor college production that's the easiest way to find busts, and Brown hits the production bar just fine.
Biggest negative is how small he is, with low BMI and very short too. A bit smaller than DJax. Other early round WRs with similar BMI who were a bit taller include Harry Douglas, Ted Ginn, Titus Young, Brandon Tate, Will Fuller, Paul Richardson, and Dante Pettis. His size is a negative sign even after accounting for draft position. Brown's speed (which I think is probably legit even though he didn't run a 40) partially counteracts that concern (since there have been some successful small superfast WRs). If he had also produced as a returner or runner that would help counter it even more, but he didn't.
Another downside with Brown is that speedy deep threats have more NFL value than fantasy value - both because they force the defense to adjust, and because of how PPR rewards receptions.
The praise that he gets for his route running seems like another good sign.
Biggest plus is the combination of early draft pick and strong college production. If a highly drafted WR has poor college production that's the easiest way to find busts, and Brown hits the production bar just fine.
Biggest negative is how small he is, with low BMI and very short too. A bit smaller than DJax. Other early round WRs with similar BMI who were a bit taller include Harry Douglas, Ted Ginn, Titus Young, Brandon Tate, Will Fuller, Paul Richardson, and Dante Pettis. His size is a negative sign even after accounting for draft position. Brown's speed (which I think is probably legit even though he didn't run a 40) partially counteracts that concern (since there have been some successful small superfast WRs). If he had also produced as a returner or runner that would help counter it even more, but he didn't.
Another downside with Brown is that speedy deep threats have more NFL value than fantasy value - both because they force the defense to adjust, and because of how PPR rewards receptions.
The praise that he gets for his route running seems like another good sign.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
wow. thanks.
Any concern about his late breakout age?
He is amazing on film. Sometimes I wonder if it's on Fast Forward!
His breakout age is concerning, along with his size. I'll be in a position in all of my dynasty leagues to potentiall draft him if his value is a mid to late 1st
Last edited by a moderator:
deadlyrange0321
Footballguy
The thing is that if he goes mid-late 1st in the NFL draft, pretty much anywhere except Baltimore, he’ll most likely be actually picked in the early 1st in rookie drafts.
ZWK
Footballguy
He had at least pretty good production every year of his career: 50/754/10 in 10 games as a freshman at College of the Canyons, then 57/1095/7 as a sophomore at Oklahoma, then 75/1318/10 as a junior at Oklahoma. When Player Profiler calculates breakout age they ignore his freshman year since it was junior college (which is potentially reasonable) and they rate his sophomore year as not a breakout because it didn't meet their market share threshold. So they count him as a junior year (2018, age 21.3) breakout with his 75/1318/10 season. I think that's a problem with using market share as your only production stat, rather than a problem with Brown. His first 1000 yard season was plenty good to count as a breakout.
They also have him with a not good Dominator Rating, which again seems like a problem with relying only on market share. Good NFL receivers had good college production across a bunch of metrics, including ones that Brown excelled at like YPT and number of 25+ yard receptions, and I don't think it should count against him too much that he didn't dominate targets in an extremely prolific passing offense.
deadlyrange0321
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
Marquise Brown went 14th & 12th in the two drafts that have been posted in the Post your rookie drafts thread, and 14th in the Shark Pool polls for PPR leagues.
IMO there are a few players who went ahead of him in one or more league who should not have (Kelvin Harmon in all 3 leagues, Parris Campbell in 1, Deebo Samuel in 1) and no players who went after him who definitely should have gone before him (although some are close calls). So late 1st seems right currently, and if he does go in the 1st then I imagine that will move him up a little (though it depends on where others go).
IMO there are a few players who went ahead of him in one or more league who should not have (Kelvin Harmon in all 3 leagues, Parris Campbell in 1, Deebo Samuel in 1) and no players who went after him who definitely should have gone before him (although some are close calls). So late 1st seems right currently, and if he does go in the 1st then I imagine that will move him up a little (though it depends on where others go).
Interseptopus
Footballguy
DLF discussion has people mentioning him as high as wr2 or 1.1. This place is very down on him, but that place is bonkers for him
Interseptopus
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
That doesn't show up in their rankings or mock draft ADP.
DLF staff rookie rankings have M Brown 10th (and no one has him higher than 7th), DLF rookie mock drafts have him 16th (behind Rodney Anderson), and DLF startup mock drafts have him as the 14th rookie off the board and the 50th WR (behind James Washington and Golden Tate).
But maybe their message board is a separate community from those?
ZWK
Footballguy
Here's a look at this TE class heading into the draft.
First, the top 35 TE prospects since 2006 according to my TE formula. This is a pretty simple formula which is just based on standard production stats (I posted about these TEs' production ratings a few months ago) and workout numbers, and doesn't account for more advanced stats like drop rate (or even market share).
Vernon Davis 2006
Evan Engram 2017
Noah Fant 2019
Ladarius Green 2012
Coby Fleener 2012
Mike Gesicki 2018
Dustin Keller 2008
Rob Gronkowski 2010
Jermaine Gresham 2010
George Kittle 2017
Jace Amaro 2014
MyCole Pruitt 2015
Rob Housler 2011
Bucky Hodges 2017
David Njoku 2017
Tyler Higbee 2016
Adrien Robinson 2012
Jonnu Smith 2017
Dennis Pitta 2010
Dallas Goedert 2018
Jace Sternberger 2019
Michael Egnew 2012
Gerald Everett 2017
Jared Cook 2009
Thomas Duarte 2016
T.J. Hockenson 2019
Ben Braunecker 2016
Tony Scheffler 2006
Pharaoh Brown 2017
Luke Willson 2013
Caleb Wilson 2019
Eric Ebron 2014
O.J. Howard 2017
Lance Kendricks 2011
Travis Kelce 2013
There's a pretty big gap here, so for the rest I'll cut out most of the TEs from prior classes and only include guys who have had some success in the NFL. Continuing from Kelce:
Travis Kelce 2013
Delanie Walker 2006
Gary Barnidge 2008
Aaron Hernandez 2010
Greg Olsen 2007
Jimmy Graham 2010
Charles Clay 2011
Tyler Eifert 2013
Kahale Warring 2019
Irv Smith 2019
Dawson Knox 2019
Foster Moreau 2019
Jordan Cameron 2011
Owen Daniels 2006
Josh Oliver 2019
C.J. Conrad 2019
Martellus Bennett 2008
Julius Thomas 2011
Brent Celek 2007
Alize Mack 2019
Zach Ertz 2013
Brandon Pettigrew 2009
Keenen Brown 2019
Jordan Reed 2013
Drew Sample 2019
Kaden Smith 2019
Kyle Rudolph 2011
Zach Gentry 2019
Jermichael Finley 2008
Isaac Nauta 2019
The formula loves Fant, and is high on Sternberger, Hockenson, and Wilson. Fant has amazing athleticism and good production, and the formula doesn't know about his awful drop rate. Sternberger has amazing enough production to make up for his below average production. Hockenson has good production and good size/athleticism. Wilson has very good production, and averageish size/athleticism (undersized with a fast 40 but bad jumps & agility drills).
The two Iowa TEs are likely first rounders. My formula gives a strong thumbs up to both of them, especially Fant. The consensus favors Hockenson. I'm inclined to agree with the consensus. For one thing, Fant has one of the worst drop rates in this draft class (even worse than Hakeem Butler) and Hockenson has one of the best. My formula doesn't take that into account. For another, Fant's rating by my formula is based on his most productive season, 2017. His 2018 production wasn't as good, as Hockenson overtook him as Iowa's top TE. As with Clemson 2012 (when DeAndre Hopkins overtook Sammy Watkins), this is a good sign for Hockenson and a bad one for Fant. And then there are the scouting reports, and the PFF grades, and the projected draft position. Given all that, Hockenson is looking like one of the strongest, cleanest high-end prospects in the draft, and the track record for first round tight ends is very good. He has a reasonable case for being the #1 fantasy pick in TE premium, even though his lack of elite athleticism reduces chances of having Gonzalez/Sharpe/Gates upside. Fant seems more boom-or-bust; I actually feel pretty similarly about him and Hakeem Butler.
Irv Smith is widely seen as the 3rd TE in this class. The big negative there is his size. At at just 6'2.4" with 31.5" arms, his length is at the extreme low end for a TE and would middle of the pack for a WR (e.g., 53rd percentile among this set of successful NFL WRs, close to Eric Decker, Davante Adams, Torrey Smith, and Tyler Boyd). But there have been some smallish TEs who had plenty of receiving success, like Shannon Sharpe, Aaron Hernandez, and Delanie Walker, so the size is not a dealbreaker. So I'm more on board with him than my formula is, especially since his size is really obvious to NFL teams and he is likely to get drafted in the first 2 rounds.
Jace Sternberger had a ridiculously productive 2018, whether you look at raw stats or PFF grade. But he has below average athleticism, and an unusual career path which involved a transfer and almost no production before this year. The fact that he is generally seen as a 3rd rounder seems like a pretty strong endorsement from NFL, which makes his unusual path less concerning. And his athletic numbers are in a similar ballpark to guys like Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, Jermichael Finley, and Kyle Rudolph; they're a negative but not a dealbreaker. So I'm pretty excited about him, relative to most NFL 3rd rounders, especially in TE premium leagues (which are less dependent on upside).
Caleb Wilson is an unusually extreme case: he had tons of production, he has good speed, he has a great PFF grade, and scouting reports are scathing. There is also an unusually large mismatch between his 40 time (very good) and his other drills (not so good). I'm going to like him more than his draft position, but if he falls to rd5 as projected then it'll be hard to see him as more than a flier. The odds don't seem great, but maybe he's the next George Kittle.
The rest of the TE class doesn't look particularly notable to me, although if someone in the next batch (Warring, Knox, Moreau, Oliver, Conrad) gets drafted in the first 3 rounds or so then he'll be worth considering. Oliver looks to have the best chance of getting drafted then - he had averageish size/athleticism (highlighted by a 4.63 forty) and averageish production (good totals, bad YPT, not many TDs).
First, the top 35 TE prospects since 2006 according to my TE formula. This is a pretty simple formula which is just based on standard production stats (I posted about these TEs' production ratings a few months ago) and workout numbers, and doesn't account for more advanced stats like drop rate (or even market share).
Vernon Davis 2006
Evan Engram 2017
Noah Fant 2019
Ladarius Green 2012
Coby Fleener 2012
Mike Gesicki 2018
Dustin Keller 2008
Rob Gronkowski 2010
Jermaine Gresham 2010
George Kittle 2017
Jace Amaro 2014
MyCole Pruitt 2015
Rob Housler 2011
Bucky Hodges 2017
David Njoku 2017
Tyler Higbee 2016
Adrien Robinson 2012
Jonnu Smith 2017
Dennis Pitta 2010
Dallas Goedert 2018
Jace Sternberger 2019
Michael Egnew 2012
Gerald Everett 2017
Jared Cook 2009
Thomas Duarte 2016
T.J. Hockenson 2019
Ben Braunecker 2016
Tony Scheffler 2006
Pharaoh Brown 2017
Luke Willson 2013
Caleb Wilson 2019
Eric Ebron 2014
O.J. Howard 2017
Lance Kendricks 2011
Travis Kelce 2013
There's a pretty big gap here, so for the rest I'll cut out most of the TEs from prior classes and only include guys who have had some success in the NFL. Continuing from Kelce:
Travis Kelce 2013
Delanie Walker 2006
Gary Barnidge 2008
Aaron Hernandez 2010
Greg Olsen 2007
Jimmy Graham 2010
Charles Clay 2011
Tyler Eifert 2013
Kahale Warring 2019
Irv Smith 2019
Dawson Knox 2019
Foster Moreau 2019
Jordan Cameron 2011
Owen Daniels 2006
Josh Oliver 2019
C.J. Conrad 2019
Martellus Bennett 2008
Julius Thomas 2011
Brent Celek 2007
Alize Mack 2019
Zach Ertz 2013
Brandon Pettigrew 2009
Keenen Brown 2019
Jordan Reed 2013
Drew Sample 2019
Kaden Smith 2019
Kyle Rudolph 2011
Zach Gentry 2019
Jermichael Finley 2008
Isaac Nauta 2019
The formula loves Fant, and is high on Sternberger, Hockenson, and Wilson. Fant has amazing athleticism and good production, and the formula doesn't know about his awful drop rate. Sternberger has amazing enough production to make up for his below average production. Hockenson has good production and good size/athleticism. Wilson has very good production, and averageish size/athleticism (undersized with a fast 40 but bad jumps & agility drills).
The two Iowa TEs are likely first rounders. My formula gives a strong thumbs up to both of them, especially Fant. The consensus favors Hockenson. I'm inclined to agree with the consensus. For one thing, Fant has one of the worst drop rates in this draft class (even worse than Hakeem Butler) and Hockenson has one of the best. My formula doesn't take that into account. For another, Fant's rating by my formula is based on his most productive season, 2017. His 2018 production wasn't as good, as Hockenson overtook him as Iowa's top TE. As with Clemson 2012 (when DeAndre Hopkins overtook Sammy Watkins), this is a good sign for Hockenson and a bad one for Fant. And then there are the scouting reports, and the PFF grades, and the projected draft position. Given all that, Hockenson is looking like one of the strongest, cleanest high-end prospects in the draft, and the track record for first round tight ends is very good. He has a reasonable case for being the #1 fantasy pick in TE premium, even though his lack of elite athleticism reduces chances of having Gonzalez/Sharpe/Gates upside. Fant seems more boom-or-bust; I actually feel pretty similarly about him and Hakeem Butler.
Irv Smith is widely seen as the 3rd TE in this class. The big negative there is his size. At at just 6'2.4" with 31.5" arms, his length is at the extreme low end for a TE and would middle of the pack for a WR (e.g., 53rd percentile among this set of successful NFL WRs, close to Eric Decker, Davante Adams, Torrey Smith, and Tyler Boyd). But there have been some smallish TEs who had plenty of receiving success, like Shannon Sharpe, Aaron Hernandez, and Delanie Walker, so the size is not a dealbreaker. So I'm more on board with him than my formula is, especially since his size is really obvious to NFL teams and he is likely to get drafted in the first 2 rounds.
Jace Sternberger had a ridiculously productive 2018, whether you look at raw stats or PFF grade. But he has below average athleticism, and an unusual career path which involved a transfer and almost no production before this year. The fact that he is generally seen as a 3rd rounder seems like a pretty strong endorsement from NFL, which makes his unusual path less concerning. And his athletic numbers are in a similar ballpark to guys like Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, Jermichael Finley, and Kyle Rudolph; they're a negative but not a dealbreaker. So I'm pretty excited about him, relative to most NFL 3rd rounders, especially in TE premium leagues (which are less dependent on upside).
Caleb Wilson is an unusually extreme case: he had tons of production, he has good speed, he has a great PFF grade, and scouting reports are scathing. There is also an unusually large mismatch between his 40 time (very good) and his other drills (not so good). I'm going to like him more than his draft position, but if he falls to rd5 as projected then it'll be hard to see him as more than a flier. The odds don't seem great, but maybe he's the next George Kittle.
The rest of the TE class doesn't look particularly notable to me, although if someone in the next batch (Warring, Knox, Moreau, Oliver, Conrad) gets drafted in the first 3 rounds or so then he'll be worth considering. Oliver looks to have the best chance of getting drafted then - he had averageish size/athleticism (highlighted by a 4.63 forty) and averageish production (good totals, bad YPT, not many TDs).
Last edited by a moderator:
Zyphros
Footballguy
Those are 3 of my favorite sleeper TE's. The profiles of Warring, Knox, and Moreau make for quite appealing prospect's. I don't know about San Diego State (Warring) and their scheme, do they use TE's a lot? If not then he might be the best TE sleeper. Knox on the other hand, why would they use him when they have Metcalf, Brown, Lodge in 3WR sets almost every play? Same with Moreau in LSU's offense, if they're still a team that has one of the worst track records for QB's and passing ability, then he might be a better pro than college player. I really know nothing about Oliver or Conrad but I was glad to see those other 3 mentioned. It's easy to see why these guys are under the radar but they could pay off huge.
ZWK
Footballguy
Warring, Knox, and Moreau never reached 400 receiving yards or 4 receiving TDs in a season.
It's pretty rare for a TE to have much NFL success after having that little college production. TEs who never reached 400 receiving yards in a college season: Jimmy Graham, George Kittle, Kyle Rudolph, Owen Daniels, Jordan Cameron.
Rudolph & Daniels had pretty decent receiving totals on an adjusted basis. Rudolph had 328 in 6 games, Daniels had 391 yards on a Wisconsin team that only threw for 2006 (19.5% market share).
Graham & Cameron were basketball players who had weird college careers. They were also both elite athletes (e.g., sub 4.55 forty).
That leaves Kittle. He was also an elite athlete (sub 4.55), and he had 6 TDs and 12.5 YPT in 2015 which flashed much more receiving potential than any of Warring, Knox, and Moreau have shown.
Some other fun stats:
Dawson Knox never scored a touchdown in college.
Kahale Warring has a career 13.5% drop rate.
Foster Moreau was 6th on his team in receiving yards this year.
I guess Moreau has the best chance of the three, but I don't see much to get excited about with any of them.
It's pretty rare for a TE to have much NFL success after having that little college production. TEs who never reached 400 receiving yards in a college season: Jimmy Graham, George Kittle, Kyle Rudolph, Owen Daniels, Jordan Cameron.
Rudolph & Daniels had pretty decent receiving totals on an adjusted basis. Rudolph had 328 in 6 games, Daniels had 391 yards on a Wisconsin team that only threw for 2006 (19.5% market share).
Graham & Cameron were basketball players who had weird college careers. They were also both elite athletes (e.g., sub 4.55 forty).
That leaves Kittle. He was also an elite athlete (sub 4.55), and he had 6 TDs and 12.5 YPT in 2015 which flashed much more receiving potential than any of Warring, Knox, and Moreau have shown.
Some other fun stats:
Dawson Knox never scored a touchdown in college.
Kahale Warring has a career 13.5% drop rate.
Foster Moreau was 6th on his team in receiving yards this year.
I guess Moreau has the best chance of the three, but I don't see much to get excited about with any of them.
ZWK
Footballguy
Top 15 edge rushers according to my formula (with minor changes since I posted a comparison with previous draft classes):
Josh Allen Kentucky
Montez Sweat Miss St
Brian Burns FSU
Ben Banogu TCU
Nick Bosa Ohio State
Sutton Smith N Illinois
Porter Gustin USC
Maxx Crosby E Mich
Anthony Nelson Iowa
Charles Omenihu Texas
Chase Winovich Michigan
Oshane Ximines ODU
Clelin Ferrell Clemson
Quinnen Williams Alabama *
Malik Carney N Carolina
Top 15 edge rushers according to Football Outsiders' SackSEER rating:
Brian Burns Florida State
Montez Sweat Mississippi State
John Cominsky Charleston *
Josh Allen Kentucky
Ben Banogu Texas Christian
Porter Gustin USC
Anthony Nelson Iowa
Oshane Ximines Old Dominion
Maxx Crosby Eastern Michigan
Rashan Gary Michigan
Zach Allen Boston College
Nick Bosa Ohio State
Jordan Brailford Oklahoma State
Justin Hollins Oregon
Jamal Davis Akron
* Football Outsiders didn't run the stats for Quinnen Williams since he's actually an interior lineman, and I didn't run the stats for John Cominsky since he's non-FBS.
A lot of agreement, both on some highly regarded top prospects (Allen, Burns, Sweat) and on mid-to-late round guys (Banogu, Gustin, Crosby, Nelson). Although FO is not quite as high as on Josh Allen, and their formula has Bosa down even farther than I do.
PFF does love both Bosa and Josh Allen. Among the later round guys, they're especially high on Maxx Crosby & Anthony Nelson.
This is looking like a strong edge rusher class, in terms of both high-end talent at the top and depth.
Josh Allen Kentucky
Montez Sweat Miss St
Brian Burns FSU
Ben Banogu TCU
Nick Bosa Ohio State
Sutton Smith N Illinois
Porter Gustin USC
Maxx Crosby E Mich
Anthony Nelson Iowa
Charles Omenihu Texas
Chase Winovich Michigan
Oshane Ximines ODU
Clelin Ferrell Clemson
Quinnen Williams Alabama *
Malik Carney N Carolina
Top 15 edge rushers according to Football Outsiders' SackSEER rating:
Brian Burns Florida State
Montez Sweat Mississippi State
John Cominsky Charleston *
Josh Allen Kentucky
Ben Banogu Texas Christian
Porter Gustin USC
Anthony Nelson Iowa
Oshane Ximines Old Dominion
Maxx Crosby Eastern Michigan
Rashan Gary Michigan
Zach Allen Boston College
Nick Bosa Ohio State
Jordan Brailford Oklahoma State
Justin Hollins Oregon
Jamal Davis Akron
* Football Outsiders didn't run the stats for Quinnen Williams since he's actually an interior lineman, and I didn't run the stats for John Cominsky since he's non-FBS.
A lot of agreement, both on some highly regarded top prospects (Allen, Burns, Sweat) and on mid-to-late round guys (Banogu, Gustin, Crosby, Nelson). Although FO is not quite as high as on Josh Allen, and their formula has Bosa down even farther than I do.
PFF does love both Bosa and Josh Allen. Among the later round guys, they're especially high on Maxx Crosby & Anthony Nelson.
This is looking like a strong edge rusher class, in terms of both high-end talent at the top and depth.
I'm a huge Josh Oliver fan. I have him as TE5, and could argue him as high as TE3, as I'm not a big Irv Smith fan, and Sternberger has a low ceiling, though a high floor. Oliver has decent size(6-4 250) and really good quicks(4.63, 4.47, 7.21) he's basically the same athlete as Smith, but bigger. Of course, San Jose State isn't Alabama, so that would be my biggest reason not to rank Oliver higher. Oliver also spent a lot of time playing in the slot, or even split out wide, which I felt showcased his ability to make contested catches, which he may be the best TE in the class at.Zyphros said:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I know Warring's production was low but that offense doesn't throw the ball. Warring has a breakout age of 20.4 (71st percentile) and 19.6% dominator (60th percentile) so in the context of the SD State offense, he was productive and from a pretty young age for TE. On top of that, he is a high-level athlete for the TE position. I like his chances to develop in a couple of years.Zyphros said:
Warring was SD State's leader in receptions and receiving TDs in 2018. He was 3rd in receptions and led the team in receiving TDs in 2017.
Last edited by a moderator:
