ZWK
Footballguy
This thread is for my analysis of the 2019 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2018 draft class, 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class.
Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets. WR, RB, QB are up and running (though some of the numbers will be weird for the first few weeks of the season while sample sizes are tiny). I should also have TE and pass rusher spreadsheets for this season coming eventually, though maybe not till the season is over. Also: birthdates, VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings.
My main source of data is cfbstats, and I also get some things from PFF, Football Study Hall, Reception Perception, and other sources (though often not until after the season).
My thoughts on players at the end of last year:
Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets. WR, RB, QB are up and running (though some of the numbers will be weird for the first few weeks of the season while sample sizes are tiny). I should also have TE and pass rusher spreadsheets for this season coming eventually, though maybe not till the season is over. Also: birthdates, VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings.
My main source of data is cfbstats, and I also get some things from PFF, Football Study Hall, Reception Perception, and other sources (though often not until after the season).
My thoughts on players at the end of last year:
Here's a look ahead at future draft classes. My formulas are designed to evaluate players who are entering the draft, but I can also use them to get a look at which college players seem look good prospects based on their production so far and estimated size/speed.
First, the guys who already have the numbers of strong prospects. I would've been relatively high on these guys if they had entered the draft this year.
Top Prospects:
RB: Damien Harris (Alabama), Bryce Love (Stanford)
WR: A.J. Brown (Miss)
QB: Alex Hornibrook (Wisconsin), Drew Lock (Missouri), Jake Fromm (Georgia), Trace McSorley (Penn State), McKenzie Milton (UCF)
Though I am much less confident about these QBs than about the RB/WRs, since QBs with good production often correctly fall in the draft because scouts can see that they don't have NFL skills.
Next, the guys with decent numbers so far. I would've seen them as okay/borderline prospects if they'd entered this year's draft, and top prospects often rise from this level over their last season (or two).
Decent Prospects:
RB: J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State), Devin Singletary (FAU), Benny Snell, Jr. (Kentucky), Myles Gaskin (Washington), Mike Weber (Ohio State), Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin), Ty Johnson (Maryland), Rodney Anderson (Oklahoma), David Montgomery (Iowa State), Darrell Henderson (Memphis)
WR: Cody Thompson (Toledo), JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Stanford), Denzel Mims (Baylor), Anthony Johnson (Buffalo), Tyler Johnson (Minnesota), Stanley Morgan Jr. (Nebraska), Greg Dortch (Wk Forest), Nick Westbrook (Indiana)
QB: Jake Browning (Washington), Will Grier (WVU), Jalen Hurts (Alabama), Deondre Francois (FSU)
Within each position, these lists are each in order from best to worst and there is a decent size gap between the first guy on these lists and the last one, e.g. Dobbins had significantly better numbers than Henderson.
It generally is not worth going deeper, but at WR (where production matters most) it seems worth including the next batch as players to keep an eye on.
Keep An Eye On:
WR: David Sills V (WVU), Diontae Johnson (Toledo), Chris Platt (Baylor), John Ursua (Hawai'i), Emanuel Hall (Missouri), James Gardner (Miami OH), N'Keal Harry (Ariz St), Jaylen Smith (Louisville), Marquise Brown (Oklahoma), Trevon Brown (ECU)
I made similar posts one year ago and two years ago, so you can see how my one-year-early lists have done with the past couple draft classes.