This is an interesting WR class, tricky to evaluate. My
rating formula is in love with them. It rates DK Metcalf as the best WR prospect
since I've been doing this (going back to the 2006 draft class), and this draft class is neck-and-neck with 2014 (the Watkins/Evans/Beckham draft) for its top rated draft class.
But looking at the draft class through my own eyes rather than through my formula, pretty much everyone has serious causes for concern. No one matches Evans & Watkins.
I've made a bunch of posts about WRs already in this thread. I'm not going add links in this post, but many were linked
here and it shouldn't be too hard to search through a 6-page thread to find others.
8 WRs get a clear thumbs up from the formula: D.K. Metcalf, Emanuel Hall, Hakeem Butler, A.J. Brown, N'Keal Harry, Gary Jennings, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Andy Isabella.
And 4 of those guys are among the top 15 highest rated receivers by the formula:
D.K. Metcalf Miss 2019
Stephen Hill Ga Tech 2012
Mike Evans Texas A&M 2014
Vernon Davis Maryland 2006
Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech 2007
Sammy Watkins Clemson 2014
Emanuel Hall Missouri 2019
Amari Cooper Alabama 2015
Justin Blackmon Okla St 2012
Brandin Cooks Oregon St 2014
Robert Meachem Tennessee 2007
Hakeem Butler Iowa State 2019
DeVante Parker Louisville 2015
Leonte Carroo Rutgers 2016
A.J. Brown Miss 2019
You can see from the top 5 what the formula is looking for at the very high end - college production, plus a freakish size/speed combo. Metcalf has that (crediting him for pro-rated 2018 stats), Hall is up there but on the thin side and is penalized for his drops, Butler also fits the Mike Evans type but is penalized for his drops and age. AJ Brown is not so freakish but has solid size+athleticism and 2 years of strong production.
Metcalf is the highest rated receiver of all time by my formula and a likely first round pick. And yet, I don't feel confident. He looks too one-dimensional. His workouts and tape suggest a
Derek Zoolander comparison - not much of a turner (in either direction, in Metcalf's case). He had a mediocre PFF grade, yet PFF still has him as their top WR, but
the profile where they make the case for him does not exactly inspire confidence: they note that he was extremely effective on go routes, back shoulder throws, and end zone fades and not good on other routes (and his three good routes basically just amount to one route on any given play). And given that his production mainly rates highly in my formula due to efficiency & deep balls rather than volume, maybe we should be thinking of him in more of a field-stretcher DJax/Fuller/Stills type role rather than as a go-to WR. Though on the plus side, agility drills have historically had very little relationship with WR success, Metcalf's contested catch skills give him more hope to be a high-target option, and he's still young.
The other 7 guys who get a clear thumbs up from my formula aren't even consensus first rounders - Metcalf is the only one of the 8
attending the draft. I could similarly list concerns about the others in the top 8, like Butler's drops and late breakout - it's definitely easier to look like a man among boys when you're 6'5" and 22 years old. Or Harry's separation issues.
Ignoring projected draft position, my own impression is that Hakeem Butler has the most tantalizing upside (closely followed by Metcalf) and AJ Brown is the safest of the bunch. But even Brown has some concerns/risk, what with his slot-heavy usage and his solid but unspectacular PFF grade.
If I take all information into account, including projected draft position, then that's an obvious downgrade to all the non-first rounders. Especially Jennings (a likely day 3 pick), and to a lesser extent Hall, Isabella, and Arcega-Whiteside (currently projected for rd 3).
After these 8 who my formula gives a clear thumbs up, there are a bunch of WRs who my formula rates as borderline prospects: Stanley Morgan, Scott Miller, Marquise Brown, Antoine Wesley, Deebo Samuel, Anthony Johnson, Damion Willis, Cody Thompson, Greg Dortch, Preston Williams, Lil'Jordan Humphrey.
Parris Campbell is also an interesting case, where his production totals aren't good but he only played half the snaps so his per-route numbers are good. But only playing half the snaps is a negative, and being used almost exclusively underneath is also a negative, so I'm wary of him even though I'm not downgrading him as much as the other guys who my formula says to avoid due to lack of production.
If I had to draft now, I think I'd have a top WR tier of DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler, and N'Keal Harry. Then a 2nd tier of Arcega-Whiteside, Marquise Brown, and Andy Isabella, and a 3rd tier of Deebo Samuel, Emanuel Hall, and Parris Campbell. I'm generally avoiding guys like Kelvin Harmon, Riley Ridley, Miles Boykin, and Terry McLaurin who don't have the production, although if they somehow fell I'd consider them later in the draft alongside sleepers like Gary Jennings, Stanley Morgan, and Anthony Johnson.