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RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (5 Viewers)

Dr. Dan said:
Just stop...

Abdullah: 5’9, 205 pounds,  BMI 30.3

Henderson: 5’8, 208 pounds, BMI 31.6

This is about where their similarities stop. so you can be lazy and stop here and say they are "pretty similar" or you can read on and see how they couldnt be less similar. 

Abdullah:

42.5” vertical

130” broad jump

40 yard: 4.60 sec

Bench: 24 reps

Henderson:

33.5” vertical

121.0” broad jump

40 yard dash: 4.49”

Bench: 22 reps

Last 2 college season averages:

Abdullah: 272.5 attempts, 1650.5 yards (6.0 YPC), 14 TDs

Henderson: 171 attempts, 1531.5 yards (8.9 YPC), 15.5 TDs

Yeah…… practically twins :rolleyes:
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I can't be the only one who looks at this post several times and goes...wut?

Same size, similar metrics that show Abdullah more explosive but Henderson faster, similar production (ypc easily explained by competition)...

Seems like a reasonable comp to me.

 
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Biabreakable said:
Christine Michael was a combine star. He wasn't that productive as a college player and was outperformed by team mates Ben Malena as a senior, and Cyrus Gray for the two seasons before that.
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Seahawks did the same thing again this year with Metcalf. Monster on paper. Not so much on stats or tape. They love those SPARQ guys.

As for the Henderson/Abdullah talk, anyone who says Abdullah had "tight hips" is mistaken. Cuts/agility are his signature trait as a football player. Ask Eric Weddle about that. I liked Abdullah a lot as a prospect, but the one glaring flaw for him as a runner was that he was a small guy who also lacked speed. He had no second gear. He's a lighter back who ran 4.6. I loved everything else about his game and still thought he could succeed, but that's not a combination that you want to see. Small backs can succeed without elite track speed. LeSean McCoy is a good example. He ran about a 4.50 IIRC. Fast, but not burner fast. They need to compensate with other elite traits though.

Henderson's run style and physique have little in common with Ameer despite a comparable BMI. Ameer is an east-west runner. Lots of cuts and jukes. Good in space. Comparable to the RBs the Eagles drafted under Andy Reid such as Westbrook, Moats, and McCoy. The same species as Sproles, but not as good. Henderson is a different animal, a gliding north-south slasher. He deflects some tackles because he's able to turn solid hits into glancing blows with subtle leans and cuts, but you're not going to see him breaking a lot of ankles and making a lot of nasty lateral cuts on his tape. It's just not his game.

I don't like Henderson as a tier one talent and even as a tier two guy I'm not completely sold. I just passed on him in the 1.11 slot tonight for Marquise Brown, who I don't necessarily love either. Thin draft class. I think Henderson is more of a second round rookie pick than a guy you'd be excited to spend a first on. You'd want this style of back to be a little bit faster. With a questionable path to the starting role, you could spend 2-3 years waiting on a payoff that never comes ala Tevin Coleman. His tape also doesn't quite pop for me, which is always something that scares me.

Still, he's a guy who really shines from a production metrics standpoint. He led the nation with 27 runs of 20+ yards last season, and he did it on just 214 carries (34th in the nation). That means he broke a long run on 12.6% of his carries, which is one of the highest marks you'll see in any draft. For the sake of comparison, Abdullah had a long run on 6.8% of his carries in his final college season. In that same draft class, Melvin Gordon was at 10.2% and Zeke was at 5.1%. Zeke's NFL success shows that this stat isn't the be-all end-all, but it can offer hints about a player's big play capabilities and this is an area where Henderson shined very brightly. The trick is deciding how much of it was him vs. the system/competition, and how much will translate to the NFL level. To me, he's draftable, but ideally as a guy who falls to you in the second rather than a guy you position yourself to grab in the first. The risk/reward equation isn't too scary there because missing on a healthy chunk of your 2nd round rookie picks is to be expected given the quality of players typically available in that range.

 
EBF said:
Seahawks did the same thing again this year with Metcalf. Monster on paper. Not so much on stats or tape. They love those SPARQ guys.

As for the Henderson/Abdullah talk, anyone who says Abdullah had "tight hips" is mistaken. Cuts/agility are his signature trait as a football player. Ask Eric Weddle about that. I liked Abdullah a lot as a prospect, but the one glaring flaw for him as a runner was that he was a small guy who also lacked speed. He had no second gear. He's a lighter back who ran 4.6. I loved everything else about his game and still thought he could succeed, but that's not a combination that you want to see. Small backs can succeed without elite track speed. LeSean McCoy is a good example. He ran about a 4.50 IIRC. Fast, but not burner fast. They need to compensate with other elite traits though.

Henderson's run style and physique have little in common with Ameer despite a comparable BMI. Ameer is an east-west runner. Lots of cuts and jukes. Good in space. Comparable to the RBs the Eagles drafted under Andy Reid such as Westbrook, Moats, and McCoy. The same species as Sproles, but not as good. Henderson is a different animal, a gliding north-south slasher. He deflects some tackles because he's able to turn solid hits into glancing blows with subtle leans and cuts, but you're not going to see him breaking a lot of ankles and making a lot of nasty lateral cuts on his tape. It's just not his game.

I don't like Henderson as a tier one talent and even as a tier two guy I'm not completely sold. I just passed on him in the 1.11 slot tonight for Marquise Brown, who I don't necessarily love either. Thin draft class. I think Henderson is more of a second round rookie pick than a guy you'd be excited to spend a first on. You'd want this style of back to be a little bit faster. With a questionable path to the starting role, you could spend 2-3 years waiting on a payoff that never comes ala Tevin Coleman. His tape also doesn't quite pop for me, which is always something that scares me.

Still, he's a guy who really shines from a production metrics standpoint. He led the nation with 27 runs of 20+ yards last season, and he did it on just 214 carries (34th in the nation). That means he broke a long run on 12.6% of his carries, which is one of the highest marks you'll see in any draft. For the sake of comparison, Abdullah had a long run on 6.8% of his carries in his final college season. In that same draft class, Melvin Gordon was at 10.2% and Zeke was at 5.1%. Zeke's NFL success shows that this stat isn't the be-all end-all, but it can offer hints about a player's big play capabilities and this is an area where Henderson shined very brightly. The trick is deciding how much of it was him vs. the system/competition, and how much will translate to the NFL level. To me, he's draftable, but ideally as a guy who falls to you in the second rather than a guy you position yourself to grab in the first. The risk/reward equation isn't too scary there because missing on a healthy chunk of your 2nd round rookie picks is to be expected given the quality of players typically available in that range.
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Really good breakdown.  To be clear, I wasn't comparing them as runners, just the tale of the tape.  They're pretty similar on paper.

But you're definitely right, very different types of runners.  I question Henderson's competition, every clip seems like he's running untouched through gaping holes.  I know he broke a tremendous amount of tackles, but I wonder how many of those were with a full head of steam at the second level or arm tackles through the hole.  I do like him, probably slightly more than you, but it's reflective of this draft class that folks see him as a mid first.  

 
EBF said:
Seahawks did the same thing again this year with Metcalf. Monster on paper. Not so much on stats or tape. They love those SPARQ guys.

As for the Henderson/Abdullah talk, anyone who says Abdullah had "tight hips" is mistaken. Cuts/agility are his signature trait as a football player. Ask Eric Weddle about that. I liked Abdullah a lot as a prospect, but the one glaring flaw for him as a runner was that he was a small guy who also lacked speed. He had no second gear. He's a lighter back who ran 4.6. I loved everything else about his game and still thought he could succeed, but that's not a combination that you want to see. Small backs can succeed without elite track speed. LeSean McCoy is a good example. He ran about a 4.50 IIRC. Fast, but not burner fast. They need to compensate with other elite traits though.

Henderson's run style and physique have little in common with Ameer despite a comparable BMI. Ameer is an east-west runner. Lots of cuts and jukes. Good in space. Comparable to the RBs the Eagles drafted under Andy Reid such as Westbrook, Moats, and McCoy. The same species as Sproles, but not as good. Henderson is a different animal, a gliding north-south slasher. He deflects some tackles because he's able to turn solid hits into glancing blows with subtle leans and cuts, but you're not going to see him breaking a lot of ankles and making a lot of nasty lateral cuts on his tape. It's just not his game.

I don't like Henderson as a tier one talent and even as a tier two guy I'm not completely sold. I just passed on him in the 1.11 slot tonight for Marquise Brown, who I don't necessarily love either. Thin draft class. I think Henderson is more of a second round rookie pick than a guy you'd be excited to spend a first on. You'd want this style of back to be a little bit faster. With a questionable path to the starting role, you could spend 2-3 years waiting on a payoff that never comes ala Tevin Coleman. His tape also doesn't quite pop for me, which is always something that scares me.

Still, he's a guy who really shines from a production metrics standpoint. He led the nation with 27 runs of 20+ yards last season, and he did it on just 214 carries (34th in the nation). That means he broke a long run on 12.6% of his carries, which is one of the highest marks you'll see in any draft. For the sake of comparison, Abdullah had a long run on 6.8% of his carries in his final college season. In that same draft class, Melvin Gordon was at 10.2% and Zeke was at 5.1%. Zeke's NFL success shows that this stat isn't the be-all end-all, but it can offer hints about a player's big play capabilities and this is an area where Henderson shined very brightly. The trick is deciding how much of it was him vs. the system/competition, and how much will translate to the NFL level. To me, he's draftable, but ideally as a guy who falls to you in the second rather than a guy you position yourself to grab in the first. The risk/reward equation isn't too scary there because missing on a healthy chunk of your 2nd round rookie picks is to be expected given the quality of players typically available in that range.
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We’ll have to agree to disagree about Abdullah’s “loose” hips. He’s pretty tight which is a fatal flaw given his other attributes (or lack thereof).

Both Abdullah & Henderson can juke laterally in the right situation, but having loose hips is the key to elusiveness in tight quarters as well as the open field. They both are upright jukers which isn’t nearly as effective as being able to tilt your body at the last instant. Think Jamal Charles & Matt Forte. Barry Sanders had very loose hips, but used them a little differently (wider base).

 
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College tape shows that Henderson is a much better runner after contact IMHO.  Which makes sense given his slightly better BMI.

 
skinfanjon said:
Really good breakdown.  To be clear, I wasn't comparing them as runners, just the tale of the tape.  They're pretty similar on paper.

But you're definitely right, very different types of runners.  I question Henderson's competition, every clip seems like he's running untouched through gaping holes.  I know he broke a tremendous amount of tackles, but I wonder how many of those were with a full head of steam at the second level or arm tackles through the hole.  I do like him, probably slightly more than you, but it's reflective of this draft class that folks see him as a mid first.  
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You’re on the right track. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a RB have such misleading production as Henderson. He’s going to have a difficult time both breaking tackles & eluding defenders consistently at a high level in the pros (as a feature back).

 
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EBF said:
Seahawks did the same thing again this year with Metcalf. Monster on paper. Not so much on stats or tape. They love those SPARQ guys.

As for the Henderson/Abdullah talk, anyone who says Abdullah had "tight hips" is mistaken. Cuts/agility are his signature trait as a football player. Ask Eric Weddle about that. I liked Abdullah a lot as a prospect, but the one glaring flaw for him as a runner was that he was a small guy who also lacked speed. He had no second gear. He's a lighter back who ran 4.6. I loved everything else about his game and still thought he could succeed, but that's not a combination that you want to see. Small backs can succeed without elite track speed. LeSean McCoy is a good example. He ran about a 4.50 IIRC. Fast, but not burner fast. They need to compensate with other elite traits though.

Henderson's run style and physique have little in common with Ameer despite a comparable BMI. Ameer is an east-west runner. Lots of cuts and jukes. Good in space. Comparable to the RBs the Eagles drafted under Andy Reid such as Westbrook, Moats, and McCoy. The same species as Sproles, but not as good. Henderson is a different animal, a gliding north-south slasher. He deflects some tackles because he's able to turn solid hits into glancing blows with subtle leans and cuts, but you're not going to see him breaking a lot of ankles and making a lot of nasty lateral cuts on his tape. It's just not his game.

I don't like Henderson as a tier one talent and even as a tier two guy I'm not completely sold. I just passed on him in the 1.11 slot tonight for Marquise Brown, who I don't necessarily love either. Thin draft class. I think Henderson is more of a second round rookie pick than a guy you'd be excited to spend a first on. You'd want this style of back to be a little bit faster. With a questionable path to the starting role, you could spend 2-3 years waiting on a payoff that never comes ala Tevin Coleman. His tape also doesn't quite pop for me, which is always something that scares me.

Still, he's a guy who really shines from a production metrics standpoint. He led the nation with 27 runs of 20+ yards last season, and he did it on just 214 carries (34th in the nation). That means he broke a long run on 12.6% of his carries, which is one of the highest marks you'll see in any draft. For the sake of comparison, Abdullah had a long run on 6.8% of his carries in his final college season. In that same draft class, Melvin Gordon was at 10.2% and Zeke was at 5.1%. Zeke's NFL success shows that this stat isn't the be-all end-all, but it can offer hints about a player's big play capabilities and this is an area where Henderson shined very brightly. The trick is deciding how much of it was him vs. the system/competition, and how much will translate to the NFL level. To me, he's draftable, but ideally as a guy who falls to you in the second rather than a guy you position yourself to grab in the first. The risk/reward equation isn't too scary there because missing on a healthy chunk of your 2nd round rookie picks is to be expected given the quality of players typically available in that range.
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We agree on Henderson for the most part, though. I’m not trashing Henderson as much as I’m surprised the FF community is so high on him (as a whole).

 
Football Jones said:
You’re on the right track. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a RB have such misleading production as Henderson. He’s going to have a very difficult time both breaking tackles & eluding defenders consistently at a high level in the pros.
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Watch Henderson's tape vs. UCF, a team ranked in the top 10.   Over 200 rushing yards and over 13.0 YPC.

As a Junior.

 
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Football Jones said:
We’ll have to agree to disagree about Abdullah’s “loose” hips. He’s pretty tight which is a fatal flaw given his other attributes (or lack thereof).

Both Abdullah & Henderson can juke laterally in the right situation, but having loose hips is the key to elusiveness in tight quarters as well as the open field. They both are upright jukers which isn’t nearly as effective as being able to tilt your body at the last instant. Think Jamal Charles & Matt Forte. Barry Sanders had very loose hips, but used them a little differently (wider base).
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Agility and cuts are the only reason Abdullah was even draftable, as his size/speed were nothing special on their own. His game is all about elusiveness. The clip that I posted above shows that he isn't an "upright runner", as you can see him sinking his hips very low on those cuts.

Charles and Forte were both very fast, which was perhaps as essential to their success as their quickness. Charles had high level track speed and Forte was a 4.4 guy at 215+ pounds. Sometimes a few tenths in the 40 is all it takes to separate a success from a flop. It's why I'm wary of David Montgomery.

Many years ago there was a back I really liked named Tim Flanders from Sam Houston State. He was a prolific college player and his tape was excellent, showing loose hips and elite footwork/fluidity. Here's the problem: He ran a 4.75 at the combine. That's not enough juice for the NFL. He went undrafted, got cut by the Saints, and currently plays in the CFL. Shave 2-3 tenths off his 40 time and he's probably a starter somewhere in the league.

As I've said in other threads, movement skills are a combination of fluidity and explosiveness. Being merely explosive without being fluid (ala Michael Dyer) is not enough. Being merely fluid without explosiveness (ala Tim Flanders) is not enough. The ideal back has a healthy combination of both. Abdullah was fluid and showed good explosiveness in jumps and short splits, but his 4.6 40 time always raised some questions. To me, that's a bigger flaw than anything involving his elusiveness. Myles Gaskin is the same type of guy in this year's draft and he faces similar challenges.

 
EBF said:
Agility and cuts are the only reason Abdullah was even draftable, as his size/speed were nothing special on their own. His game is all about elusiveness. The clip that I posted above shows that he isn't an "upright runner", as you can see him sinking his hips very low on those cuts.

Charles and Forte were both very fast, which was perhaps as essential to their success as their quickness. Charles had high level track speed and Forte was a 4.4 guy at 215+ pounds. Sometimes a few tenths in the 40 is all it takes to separate a success from a flop. It's why I'm wary of David Montgomery.

Many years ago there was a back I really liked named Tim Flanders from Sam Houston State. He was a prolific college player and his tape was excellent, showing loose hips and elite footwork/fluidity. Here's the problem: He ran a 4.75 at the combine. That's not enough juice for the NFL. He went undrafted, got cut by the Saints, and currently plays in the CFL. Shave 2-3 tenths off his 40 time and he's probably a starter somewhere in the league.

As I've said in other threads, movement skills are a combination of fluidity and explosiveness. Being merely explosive without being fluid (ala Michael Dyer) is not enough. Being merely fluid without explosiveness (ala Tim Flanders) is not enough. The ideal back has a healthy combination of both. Abdullah was fluid and showed good explosiveness in jumps and short splits, but his 4.6 40 time always raised some questions. To me, that's a bigger flaw than anything involving his elusiveness. Myles Gaskin is the same type of guy in this year's draft and he faces similar challenges.
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Slowing down to sink your hips (which automatically happens) isn’t the same as having loose hips. Evaluating hip looseness has been a huge part of scouting RBs for me.

That said, FFers tend to use different things as criteria & that’s ok. Everybody sees things their own way. What matters is how successful you are at using your criteria.

 
EBF said:
Seahawks did the same thing again this year with Metcalf. Monster on paper. Not so much on stats or tape. They love those SPARQ guys.

As for the Henderson/Abdullah talk, anyone who says Abdullah had "tight hips" is mistaken. Cuts/agility are his signature trait as a football player. Ask Eric Weddle about that. I liked Abdullah a lot as a prospect, but the one glaring flaw for him as a runner was that he was a small guy who also lacked speed. He had no second gear. He's a lighter back who ran 4.6. I loved everything else about his game and still thought he could succeed, but that's not a combination that you want to see. Small backs can succeed without elite track speed. LeSean McCoy is a good example. He ran about a 4.50 IIRC. Fast, but not burner fast. They need to compensate with other elite traits though.
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Yeah I know. I wasn't even going to go there. I dunno what else to say than this is an ignorant statement. Ameer is all about elusiveness. His best trait.

Henderson's run style and physique have little in common with Ameer despite a comparable BMI. Ameer is an east-west runner. Lots of cuts and jukes. Good in space. Comparable to the RBs the Eagles drafted under Andy Reid such as Westbrook, Moats, and McCoy. The same species as Sproles, but not as good. Henderson is a different animal, a gliding north-south slasher. He deflects some tackles because he's able to turn solid hits into glancing blows with subtle leans and cuts, but you're not going to see him breaking a lot of ankles and making a lot of nasty lateral cuts on his tape. It's just not his game.
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Well I somewhat disagree with this. I think Henderson is elusive when it is appropriate to be. However he does not waste motion with all these jukes and extra cuts like you see Ameer and other backs do. Those backs cuts are more exaggerated, in part because they are missing the burst to make that cut a bit cleaner. There are plays where he is using elusiveness and cuts to go laterally across the field to find daylight. He just doesn't do this if he doesn't have to. I think he is efficient with his footwork and cuts so that he doesn't have to break defenders down that way as much as you see guys like Sanders and Montgomery doing. It is the burst he has.

I don't like Henderson as a tier one talent and even as a tier two guy I'm not completely sold. I just passed on him in the 1.11 slot tonight for Marquise Brown, who I don't necessarily love either. Thin draft class. I think Henderson is more of a second round rookie pick than a guy you'd be excited to spend a first on. You'd want this style of back to be a little bit faster. With a questionable path to the starting role, you could spend 2-3 years waiting on a payoff that never comes ala Tevin Coleman. His tape also doesn't quite pop for me, which is always something that scares me.
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Well I do think he is a tier one RB. That said when I ranked him with the two previous draft classes before the draft he was near the end of that list.

I have a tier 11 for guys like Gurley and Barkley, but I have no problem putting Henderson in the same tier as I have Ronald Jones, Sony Michel ect.

Now that is just a talent level evaluation. His situation is difficult, as Gurley is (or at least he was) a tier 11 RB. So from that perspective the short term opportunity is blocked too much for him to be a top 12 RB.

I think we agree for the most part. I just think more of Henderson as a talent than you do.

 
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I had no idea the hype had risen so much on this guy. I snap accepted an offer of Henderson and Njoku for Damien Williams last night, but that's because I really wanted Njoku in TE Premium and considered Henderson a great add-on. Now I'm intrigued. 

 
Great twitter thread on him:

https://twitter.com/AnOutragedJew/status/1126882227449618432

Soon after signing a $3 million deal with the Rams, the oft-injured back landed on the “physically unable to perform” list. He touched the ball in just two games in 2017, never quite regaining his explosiveness. The next March, he was cut.

Ever since, the Rams have been searching for the right fit for a role McVay has long viewed as crucial to his offense. They considered a few options in the middle rounds of last year’s draft – a group which included the likes of Colts running back Nyheim Hines and Atlanta’s Ito Smith. But, Rams general manager Les Snead said, “a couple of enemies chose those change-of-pace backs ahead of us.”

They couldn’t let the same scenario play out again. Whether or not Gurley’s knee is worse than the team has led on, the Rams already acknowledged the need to lighten his load. So they did their due diligence on many of the draft’s running backs. They were looking for “a very specific human being,” as Snead put it – a compact, explosive runner, with great hands and great vision, who could motion into the slot and run routes, but also take an off-tackle handoff, break through tackles and go the distance on a stretch play.

By draft night, the Rams were sure they’d found their guy. His measurables suggested he was a perfect fit. They wondered if he might add “a Kamara element” to an offense that was already quite explosive without such a weapon. They even considered pouncing with the 45th overall pick to make sure another team wouldn’t swoop in.

“We’ll play against him and you’ll feel it,” Snead warned the war room.

So the Rams traded up, sacrificing a valuable compensatory third-round pick to move to No. 70.

University of Memphis coach Mike Norvell was watching as picks ticked off the board in the third round, crossing his fingers that the Tigers’ top running back would wind up in an offense that suited his unique abilities. When the Rams finally selected Darrell Henderson, Norvell rejoiced.

It was a perfect marriage, he thought.

“I don’t know if there’s a better fit in the NFL for him than the Rams,” Norvell said.

Norvell had already digested hours of the Rams offense over the past year, gleaning what he could. He noted how similarly he and McVay used running backs, deploying them all over the field. Memphis handed off to its backs out of shotgun formation more frequently. But like the Rams, the Memphis offense subsisted on a heavy dose of outside zone runs, which asked backs to run off tackle while patiently reading the defense before cutting upfield.

The Rams ran more outside zone than any other team in the NFL last season. That scheme can be a difficult adjustment for some backs, but for the 5-foot-8 Henderson, it shouldn’t be an adjustment at all. Over the past two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus, he led all of college football with a staggering 10.7 yards per carry on such runs. Highlight reels offer endless examples of how Henderson’s extraordinary vision could translate to an NFL zone blocking scheme.

“The number of explosive runs he’s had on stretch plays is incredible,” Norvell said. “I think he was the most dynamic back in college football last year because of it.”

Henderson won’t even be the most dynamic back in his own backfield with the Rams, assuming Gurley returns to full health. But operating out of a committee isn’t a new concept for him, either. Even as he finished second in the nation in rushing last season, Henderson accounted for fewer than 35 percent of his own team’s rushing attempts.

What the Rams will ultimately get from the 2017 NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2019 remains somewhat of a mystery. After missing two games at the end of last season with knee inflammation, then struggling through the playoffs, Gurley said in mid-April that his knee felt “pretty good”, but otherwise didn’t offer much detail. When asked if Henderson’s selection had anything to do with Gurley’s health, McVay shook his head.

“This had to do with (Henderson’s) skillset,” McVay said. “He was a player that we identified as a unique playmaker. He can obviously do some things as a runner, but the versatility that he provides and some of the things he can do are what’s so enticing for us.”

How quickly might we see that skillset at work? Norvell has seen enough of Henderson to know it probably won’t take long. Whether Gurley is healthy or not.

“I don’t think Darrell is a guy that you want to put any limitations on what he can or can’t do,” Norvell said. “I believe he can do it all.”
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https://www.ocregister.com/2019/05/11/rookie-darrell-henderson-might-be-perfect-fit-in-rams-change-of-pace-role/

 
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joey said:
so, you're saying he should be the 1.1 rookie pick. Got it  ;)
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If I can't find a trade partner to allow me to move down from 1.1 I may strongly consider it.

I'm not a huge fan of Jacobs and Montgomery is so so to me. Sanders intrigues me but his ceiling is not as high as Henderson. Truly a put your money where you mouth is moment. I do think we will look back in 2-3 years and some may wonder how they missed 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
If I can't find a trade partner to allow me to move down from 1.1 I may strongly consider it.

I'm not a huge fan of Jacobs and Montgomery is so so to me. Sanders intrigues me but his ceiling is not as high as Henderson. Truly a put your money where you mouth is moment. I do think we will look back in 2-3 years and some may wonder how they missed 
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man. that's definitely ballsy. I have the 1.1 in one of my non-ppr dynasty leagues (earned it :( ) and I'm going "safer" with either Jacobs or Harry.

I also have the 1.9 so fingers crossed he makes it down to me there.

 
joey said:
man. that's definitely ballsy. I have the 1.1 in one of my non-ppr dynasty leagues (earned it :( ) and I'm going "safer" with either Jacobs or Harry.

I also have the 1.9 so fingers crossed he makes it down to me there.
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I have Henderson #2 behind harry, and he may be #1. Not becuase of Henderson, but I'm adding a tad on Harry. I earned 1.1 but my team isnt awful. I want to trade down but if I can't I'll just take the guy I want

 
Dr. Dan said:
I have Henderson #2 behind harry, and he may be #1. Not becuase of Henderson, but I'm adding a tad on Harry. I earned 1.1 but my team isnt awful. I want to trade down but if I can't I'll just take the guy I want
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The guy at 1.2 owes you a Ruth's Chris Bone-in filet with appetizers, sides, drinks, an Uber home, and a high-class hooker if you take Henderson 1.1.

 
menobrown said:
I don't know a single redraft league Kamara was not drafted in either. I was using 8th-10th round picks on him BEFORE the NFL draft.
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I drafted Kamara in both my dynasty leagues as a rookie.  I had no confidence in Peterson so Kamara was a great "sleeper".

However, I don't think he was often picked that early in redraft...  We draft in late August and, yes, Kamara was a Saint by then.  The Saints had Ingram and ADP so there were questions about how many touches Alvin would get...  In redraft, he just wasn't an appealing option from a risk/reward perspective.

Your draft preceded the NFL draft and Kamara may have had MORE value before he landed on a team with seemingly good RB depth.  Had he landed in a RB needy situation, people in my drafts would have been all over him.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Why?  Because Jacobs is a sure thing?
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No not at all.  Trent Richardson...that was a sure thing.

I dont think I am alone in thinking that Jacobs sits in his own tier at the top of this draft, even though he isnt a sure thing.  I understand that its a weak draft and a weak 1.1 in comparison to other drafts, but he is still in his own tier at the top.

 
Jacobs is a bust waiting to happen.

I have Henderson, Montgomery, and Sanders ranked higher than Jacobs for dynasty purposes.

Alabama RBs...a road to mediocrity or a straight up Trent Richardson bust.   

 
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ChuckLiddell said:
What about his game screams bust to you.  Curious, not questioning your opinion.
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5.3 YPC with limited usage, behind one of the best offensive lines in college football

History of Alabama RB underperformance

"Limited Combine"

Limited wiggle

5'10" 220   

It's astonishing to me the fantasy "experts" are on this guy.   We must have been watching different tape.

 
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ChuckLiddell said:
No not at all.  Trent Richardson...that was a sure thing.

I dont think I am alone in thinking that Jacobs sits in his own tier at the top of this draft, even though he isnt a sure thing.  I understand that its a weak draft and a weak 1.1 in comparison to other drafts, but he is still in his own tier at the top.
Click to expand...


Being part of group think isn’t proof of being correct.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
What about his game screams bust to you.  Curious, not questioning your opinion.
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All of his potential comes from what scouts have seen him do in practice.  During games he got the least amount of carries, sat out the combine, had a terrible proday.

I had 1.1 (my team deserved it). Traded back and picked up 4 and 12 and couldn't be happier.

Made another move back from 4 to 7 (got a 2nd and a DT in the process) with my sights on picking Henderson.

 
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ChuckLiddell said:
No not at all.  Trent Richardson...that was a sure thing.

I dont think I am alone in thinking that Jacobs sits in his own tier at the top of this draft, even though he isnt a sure thing.  I understand that its a weak draft and a weak 1.1 in comparison to other drafts, but he is still in his own tier at the top. 
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You may not be alone but you sure aren't in a consensus either.  A whole bunch of people have Harry #1 and he's gone before Jacobs in two of my drafts.

 
Here is another fantastic Henderson thread on twitter. It’s so hard to not be overly excited for this guy. I know Gurley is there and if Gurley is healthy it’s just going to be really tough getting steam behind him to be overly productive but man this is a match in heaven if Gurley has any problems.

 
After seeing 2 posters in here tout Henderson>Jacobs if they couldn't trade down, I sent out an offer (devy league).

Darrell Henderson and Eno Benjamin

For

Josh Jacobs

Was laughed off the face of the planet. 

Had to check given some of these posts

 
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You can rank a guy #1, but that doesn't mean you need to take him there. I have Deebo as a top 5 prospect in this WR/RB class, but I haven't taken him higher than #7 and have usually risked letting him fall to #10-11. Obviously the cheaper you can get your guy, the better. Even if I loved Henderson (I don't), I wouldn't take him higher than ~6th-8th in this draft because there shouldn't be any need to do so. Only the biggest stans are even going to consider him that high.

Based on generic odds of a 1st round back vs. a 3rd round back, Jacobs is worth maybe two Hendersons. Nobody on the side giving Jacobs should make that trade because it's totally lopsided. If you have a top 2-3 pick and you go with Henderson there, you're gambling against the house, sacrificing value, and narrowing your margin for error. Better to jump down a couple spots, pick up some extra value, and still get your guy.

 
No matter how much you like a guy, overdrafting or reaching in the first round is a surefire way to sink your team.  Take value, make deals, draft guys you don't necessarily want to keep in order to facilitate deals, but don't reach half a round for no reason.  

 
skinfanjon said:
No matter how much you like a guy, overdrafting or reaching in the first round is a surefire way to sink your team.  Take value, make deals, draft guys you don't necessarily want to keep in order to facilitate deals, but don't reach half a round for no reason.  
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Most agree with this.

 
skinfanjon said:
No matter how much you like a guy, overdrafting or reaching in the first round is a surefire way to sink your team.  Take value, make deals, draft guys you don't necessarily want to keep in order to facilitate deals, but don't reach half a round for no reason.  
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You might wanna ask all the Mike Thomas owners that reached for him over Treadwell about that.  Or better yet, ask all us guys who "took value" while "hoping to get Thomas at 1.05" how they felt when that didn't happen.  Or us Kamara owners that said "he's in an RBBC, I'll get him later" and then drafted Corey Davis "for value".

The surefire way to fix your team is to be right.  It's nice to be right late, but it's far more important to just be right.  You know what sucks?  Being right about those two guys but watching them tear is up on some other dude's roster.  I can live with being wrong, that's learnable and fixable.  I can't live with being right and letting someone else reap the reward.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
Being part of group think isn’t proof of being correct.
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This was not about correct or incorrect.  I just said that the guy at 1.2 would be psyched.  For some reason, you want to take it down some strange path and start an argument.  You think the guy at 1.2 is gonna say "Darn it!  I was gonna take Henderson at 2!  Now what am I gonna do?  Anyone want to give me a couple 2s for my pick?"

 
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skinfanjon said:
No matter how much you like a guy, overdrafting or reaching in the first round is a surefire way to sink your team.  Take value, make deals, draft guys you don't necessarily want to keep in order to facilitate deals, but don't reach half a round for no reason.  
Click to expand...


That should be taken with a caveat.  I’d argue that drafting the wrong guy will sink your team a lot faster than picking the right guy higher than the group wisdom thinks they should be picked.  All it takes is one owner ahead of you in the draft who recognizes the value of a player and uses your greed to their advantage after you’ve traded down.  If you have targeted a guy who you are convinced is the right guy, it’s better to reach for them a bit to make sure you get them.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
This was not about correct or incorrect.  I just said that the guy at 1.2 would be psyched.  For some reason, you want to take it down some dark path and start an argument.  You think the guy at 1.2 is gonna say "Darn it!  I was gonna take Henderson at 2!  Now what am I gonna do?  Anyone want to give me a couple 2s for my pick?"
Click to expand...


You were the one who supported your position by stating that a lot of others think similarly.  Dark path?   :lol:

 
Bronco Billy said:
You were the one who supported your position by stating that a lot of others think similarly.  Dark path?   :lol:
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Yes.  The position that the guy at 1.2 would be psyched - a theory that groupthink trends actually would support.  Perhaps I should have included the guy at 1.3 among those who would be psyched for those who think Harry is the guy in this draft - my bad!  Then maybe I could have avoided this kind of nonsensical conversation that is derived from a post where I was just being whimsical.  Some people just like to argue - I get that.  I dont.  Can we just be done now?  

 
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