@Birdie048 got me thinking about bye week conflicts, and more specifically, which types of conflicts are worse than others. Here is what I've come up with, ranked in order from worst to acceptable type:
1)
Two or more studs at the same position. If you are rolling with a RB corps of Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Chris Carson, Matt Breida, and Ito Smith, it should be quite clear week 9 will be brutal. Avoid at all costs.
2)
Multiple studs at different positions. David Johnson, Keenan Allen, and Travis Kelce don't mix. That's $84 off at the same time, and likely your top dog at each position. Remember this guy from last year's contest?
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105400.php
3)
Multiple players at RB/WR/TE. Remember, you will need a total of 7 usable scores each week from this group. With the vast majority seeming to be smaller rosters this year, it's something to watch out for. An example of this would be:
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/7 - $35
RB - Devonta Freeman - ATL/9 - $23
RB - Lamar Miller - HOU/10 - $17
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/12 - $16
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/6 - $25
WR - Stefon Diggs - MIN/12 - $23
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/10 - $14
WR - Quincy Enunwa - NYJ/4 - $6
WR - DJ Chark - JAX/10 - $5
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/10 - $24
TE - Darren Waller - OAK/6 - $8
It may not jump out at first glance, but I've left myself no room for error in week 10. I am forced to use the scores for every other player. If a guy is sidelined, I am taking a goose egg. If a player has a tough matchup (i.e. Freeman vs NO) I have to hope for the best. This may be the most commonly overlooked flaw with smaller roster submissions this year.
4)
QB matchups during byes. This is particularly important if you plan on taking only 2. You may have noticed I didn't mention QB until now. That is because I kind of view them as an independent position (kickers and defenses are also independent positions). Now, if I went the stud/dud route (i.e. Mahomes & Flacco) I would consider adding them in the above categories. Getting back to matchups during byes, take the combo of Carson Wentz and Drew Brees. When Wentz is off week 10, Brees faces ATL
but when Brees is off week 9, Wentz faces CHI
I certainly won't put a ton of stock in this, but it's something to consider. I want my Winston/Cousins duo this year, and their byes mesh quite well. A QB like Mahomes may be matchup-proof, but if you chose to pair him with only Jones, you will be hurting in week 12 when the rookie faces CHI. I know last year's contest pricing made larger rosters a more viable option, but here are a few numbers from 2018 to chew on - 2 QB (60/4814 = 1.25%), 3 QB (134/6989 = 1.92%), 4 QB (51/2275 = 2.24%). Those numbers make me wanna throw a few bucks at a 3rd QB, but I may just risk going with 2.
5)
D matchups during byes. Same as with QB's above. You really don't want your only defense on a given week facing the Saints. Instead, hunt for a team like Tampa Bay, who gave up 3X more points to opposing D's. Sacks & INT's were the bread and butter for D's, while fumble recoveries and TD's were few and far between. Fun facts - Deshaun Watson gave up 62 sacks = 62 points. Tampa Bay gave up 26 INT's = 52 points. The Saints gave up 20 sacks and 7 INT's = 34 points.
6)
Kicker matchups during byes. I put about 1% stock in this, which basically means it's a non-factor. Just grab a few kickers and hope they don't lose their jobs. That is by far the most important thing when choosing your kickers. This year, I would love to roster Greg Joseph, but after last year, watching my Caleb Sturgis lose his job, I worry it may happen to Joseph.
@ZWK posted a kicker job security probability scale in the kicker thread, and it's worth a peek. I would like to roster 3 each at D & K, but if I can only do one of them, it would be kicker. D's are not at risk of losing their jobs or getting injured.
Just remember, the smaller the roster, the more relevance you have to place on bye conflicts. What are some other bye week pitfalls to avoid?
