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Dynasty & Redraft: J.K. Dobbins, Ravens


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I have Lamar and I'm wondering if I'm limiting myself.  I basically have two RBs from the Ravens (Lamar and Dobbins) who will siphon goal line and running plays from one another.  Oh and then there's Gus taking some of that too.  I'm wondering if I should move Dobbins.  I want to keep Lamar.

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Mark Ingram scored 15 total TD's last year

I see Devonte Freeman, no deep speed, so I am probably out at his price.  I'm a raging Buckeye fan so would love to buy in, but if people are putting him in the conversation with Swift and Taylor I th

Ingram has two years left on his contract. I don't know what his cap hit is if he gets cut after the next season but, if Dobbins is as good as advertised, I could see Baltimore letting him go after 20

12 hours ago, LawFitz said:

Dude has juice and wiggle that Ingram/Edwards don't. I could see this evolving into a bigger split for Dobbins as the season wears on.

Ingram will be the odd man out. Gus is an excellent football player and will carry the load with Dobbins. 

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10 hours ago, steelwind said:

I have Lamar and I'm wondering if I'm limiting myself.  I basically have two RBs from the Ravens (Lamar and Dobbins) who will siphon goal line and running plays from one another.  Oh and then there's Gus taking some of that too.  I'm wondering if I should move Dobbins.  I want to keep Lamar.

Could also think of it as, while they are all getting some yards most likely, you have twice as much of a chance of getting a player into the endzone. Although, it was much more appealing last year when they were scoring many more TDs.

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11 hours ago, steelwind said:

I have Lamar and I'm wondering if I'm limiting myself.  I basically have two RBs from the Ravens (Lamar and Dobbins) who will siphon goal line and running plays from one another.  Oh and then there's Gus taking some of that too.  I'm wondering if I should move Dobbins.  I want to keep Lamar.

I have Lamar and I was offered Dobbins in a  package deal in dynasty.  Tempting, but not only is he part of a 3 headed monster, I don't want Lamar and a Ravens rb....Lamar is the leading ravens rb.  Yes, the two other guys may both be gone next year and dobbins would be good if he was a bell cow despite Lamar running too, but I'm in win now mode.

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Week 9 pressing fantasy football questions: Is J.K. Dobbins the key to turning Ravens offense around?

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There are a couple of solutions here. J.K. Dobbins is coming off acing his first shot as the clear primary back last week. With Mark Ingram not practicing mid-week, he could easily find himself back in that role. Greg Roman and company could try to get him more involved in screens and passes to the flat. He already leads the backs in routes run. 

 

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Week 10 Dynasty Risers and Fallers: Brandin Cooks remains undervalued

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FALLER: RB J.K. DOBBINS, BALTIMORE RAVENS

Dobbins came out of Ohio State as a player who checked all of the boxes. He carried the ball 301 times for 2,003 yards and 21 scores while adding at least 20 receptions in all three of his collegiate seasons. He checked all of the boxes on film, as well. 

From PFF's Mike Renner’s breakdown of him in the spring, “Dobbins has arguably the best vision in the class. … Dobbins is consistent with his pacing as he approaches the line of scrimmage, and he's decisive with his cuts.” The Ravens affirmed his talent by spending a second-round pick on him in the 2020 NFL Draft. 

Since then, things have gone downhill for Dobbins. Even with Mark Ingram sidelined for the past two weeks, Dobbins has not assumed a three-down or even two-down role. He has split carries with Gus Edwards (27-27) evenly. Edwards, who did not have a reception on the year heading into Week 8, also saw just one fewer target than Dobbins (4 to 3) in those two games. 

As a runner, Dobbins has shown nothing but excellence. His 3.6 yards after contact per attemptranks top five (min. 50 carries) among backs. His usage remains the problem. No level of efficiency will get Dobbins to an RB1 season if he continues to split his backfield with Edwards and Ingram, who is expected to return this week. 

Dobbins’ unquestionable talent should win out in the long run, so it’s reasonable to buy the dip here. However, it’s not a guarantee that he ever moves beyond operating in a committee. Acquiring Dobbins in dynasty leagues is a high-upside, modest-floor move that is risky but worth the cost.

 

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J.K. Dobbins had five carries for 13 yards in Week 10 against the Patriots.

Dobbins saw fewer touches than Mark Ingram (7) and Gus Edwards (8). It was more of the same from OC Greg Roman, with Baltimore using all three backs with little effectiveness. Dobbins flashed during Ingram's absence but it didn't translate into a larger role. He'll likely remain in the lesser half of a committee in Week 11 against the Titans.

Nov 15, 2020, 11:48 PM ET

 

 

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30 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

I feel like Linus sitting in a pumpkin patch at this point.  

More likely we are Charlie Brown and Lucy is the coaching staff....all lined up and ready to go...errrr....nope

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2 hours ago, gruecd said:

Is he droppable in redraft?

Yes, if you can get someone like Wayne Gallman or Salvon Ahmed at the RB position.   

That three-headed monster situation in Baltimore just makes all Ravens RB unstartable.   You're just hoping that they'll manage to fall in the end zone, though Lamar will more than likely vulture any TD.   

 

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On 11/17/2020 at 10:56 AM, knowledge dropper said:

I am mulling that move for waivers tonight.   He did not seize the opportunity when Engram went down. It’s back to a 3 player platoon. 

I'm not sure he was ever given an true opportunity to seize  He only had two games without Ingram.  One great, one subpar:

Week 8 - v. Pitt; 15/113 yds - 7.5 yds/carry; Edwards had good stats too - 16/87 5.4 yds/carry

Week 9 -  v. Colts 12/30 yds 2.5 yds/carry;  Edwards slightly worse - 11/23 - 2.1 yds/carry

I don't think Baltimore ever planned on moving away from the three-headed cluster.

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Last week he saw 29 snaps, to 17 for Ingram and 15 for Edwards. Obviously touches were invented (6,7,8) but he ran a lot of routes and watching the game was the "lead" back. I feel like he has a couple big weeks before the end of the year but good luck predicting when they'll be. 

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Is Harbaugh ever going to let this guy loose and get majority of the touches at any pt this season? I honestly think Dobbins is on the wrong team to succeed. Lamar steals 30 percent of the running plays and rarely if every checks down. Dobbins seems like he would be fantastic on screen plays too but I can’t remember the last game I’ve seen Baltimore run one. 

Just curious on some others thoughts?  Is the best yet to come or more of the same?

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20 minutes ago, The Show said:

Is Harbaugh ever going to let this guy loose and get majority of the touches at any pt this season? I honestly think Dobbins is on the wrong team to succeed. Lamar steals 30 percent of the running plays and rarely if every checks down. Dobbins seems like he would be fantastic on screen plays too but I can’t remember the last game I’ve seen Baltimore run one. 

Just curious on some others thoughts?  Is the best yet to come or more of the same?

I think at some point he'll get a shot to he the guy, whether it's this year or not, who knows.

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19 minutes ago, The Show said:

Is Harbaugh ever going to let this guy loose and get majority of the touches at any pt this season? I honestly think Dobbins is on the wrong team to succeed. Lamar steals 30 percent of the running plays and rarely if every checks down. Dobbins seems like he would be fantastic on screen plays too but I can’t remember the last game I’ve seen Baltimore run one. 

Just curious on some others thoughts?  Is the best yet to come or more of the same?

I think Ingrams 2019 season will be roughly what JK posts in year 2 with Ingram fully out of the picture. 1,000 yards, 10tds.... probably little more than ingrams 25 receptions. I think from there his role with grow but only incrementally. This year, though, he will be wholey unreliable in my opinion...

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10 hours ago, The Show said:

I wonder if it was was Harbaugh playing the hot hand or if Dobbins is slowly taking over. This 3 headed backfield seems to mirror the Colts. 

As mentioned a bit upthread, I sense a changing of the guard here, not unlike Swift in Detroit. Gus Edwards may still have a meaningful place, but I think the wheels have fallen off Ingram. Lot of tread on those tires.

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10 minutes ago, Sir Psycho said:

NFL Update

@MySportsUpdate

· 2m

#Ravens RBs Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins are the two players to test positive out of Baltimore, per @MikeGarafolo. They are out for Thursday night vs. Pittsburgh.

COME ON!!!

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29 minutes ago, Sir Psycho said:

NFL Update

@MySportsUpdate

· 2m

#Ravens RBs Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins are the two players to test positive out of Baltimore, per @MikeGarafolo. They are out for Thursday night vs. Pittsburgh.

 

18 minutes ago, Rig24 said:

COME ON!!!

ESPN's Chris Mortenen just said the same thing earlier this hour.

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Just now, knowledge dropper said:

Since he tested positive does that also put him out through at least week 13?

I think you're forced to stay away from team activities for 2 weeks if you have Covid, so that would put him at one day after his Week 13 game. 

So yes.

Which sucks ### because I was holding Dobbins specifically for his Week 13 matchup. 

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5 hours ago, zamboni said:

As mentioned a bit upthread, I sense a changing of the guard here, not unlike Swift in Detroit. Gus Edwards may still have a meaningful place, but I think the wheels have fallen off Ingram. Lot of tread on those tires.

This may be. 

I was looking into the mileage idea again recently and one study I found points to 1800 carries as being a point of no return for 8 RBs.

Ingram is currently at 1580. His highest touch season was 288, for carries its 230. He hasn't had a large workload in any season, splitting time with other RB for most of his career.

He is 31 years old though. Maybe thats it.

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8 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

This may be. 

I was looking into the mileage idea again recently and one study I found points to 1800 carries as being a point of no return for 8 RBs.

Ingram is currently at 1580. His highest touch season was 288, for carries its 230. He hasn't had a large workload in any season, splitting time with other RB for most of his career.

He is 31 years old though. Maybe thats it.

I'm no doctor, but his recent injuries may have a more debilitating effect after 1580 carries than, say, 1000 carries ago.  

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2 minutes ago, zamboni said:

I'm no doctor, but his recent injuries may have a more debilitating effect after 1580 carries than, say, 1000 carries ago.  

hmm thats interesting.

I haven't put to bed the mileage idea yet.

I am looking for something better than the 1800 carry threshold that has been presented as an argument for it being a thing and open to suggestions about that.

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1 hour ago, The Show said:

I believe player testing positive can return after 10 days if he’s asymptomatic. 

After reading up on it, he can apparently return in 5 days with 3 consecutive negative tests 24-hours removed from one another. 

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Tom Pelissero @TomPelissero

#Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram will now be eligible for Wednesday’s game against the #Steelers, per me and @RapSheet. Their-day isolation period after positive COVID-19 tests will be over. 

Baltimore still will be down a dozen players, including QB Lamar Jackson.

https://twitter.com/tompelissero/status/1333555289635872768?s=21

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20 minutes ago, dtroitkid said:

Bloom really likes Dobbins this week vs. the woeful Dallas D.

Personally, I need to see him be the lead back for one more week. But I have the luxury of other options.

Anybody rolling him out there?

I am. Started him along side Carson and Montgomery over Hyde,Gaskin and Snell.

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1 hour ago, dtroitkid said:

Bloom really likes Dobbins this week vs. the woeful Dallas D.

Personally, I need to see him be the lead back for one more week. But I have the luxury of other options.

Anybody rolling him out there?

Yeah, pretty much my best option in a few spots. Now that the Sunday slate is over I would gladly bench him for Henderson or Gaskin and take my ~16, but I still like the decision and could still pay really nice.

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