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RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter BigTex
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm willing to come around on him. He had a great night tonight, for sure. I was being cheeky. Did you know that a broken clock is incorrect for one day by twenty-three hours fifty-nine minutes and fifty-eight seconds?
That's one to grow on.
I have him in one dynasty league and I could (might) consider moving him for a similarly valued WR or adding to him to go after an upper tier WR. But this is context- and philosophy-specific for me. I have taken a boring, middle of the road position on CEH: I think he has a future as a solid RB1 with a somewhat capped weekly ceiling unless he establishes the kind of receiving volume projected for him this offseason. I think he is being underrated as a runner by his critics, but he does have some limitations there (esp. power and long speed) so explosive scoring may be hit and miss. Last night served as a good reminder of how he can compile yardage in chunks, which is pretty valuable.
All of that said, my leagues are ppr/flex and TE premium, so I almost always try to build around WR and trade for top TEs. I understand the scarcity argument on RBs and there probably aren't many young dynasty RBs I prefer over CEH. He's really valuable considering the turnover coming among the elite guys on their second contracts (CMC, Kamara, Zeke, Cook, Henry and so on); that's the main argument for not moving him Imo. But my parameters for must-hold at RB are pretty narrow (picked in the top half of the NFL draft?; record of elite college production?). I know that approach won't be agreeable to everyone.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
8 teams in the league allow more rushing yards per game than the Bills and if you go by yards per carry there's 11 teams worse than the Bills. Of course these stats include CEH running through them which makes them look worse.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The haters are left to grasp at straws. Love it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I’d go with a 60-40 split as well. Looked good last night. Wish he were a little bit faster. That 31 yard run he couldn’t pull away from Ed Oliver.
I-ROK
Footballguy
He is a bit game script dependent. It was clear KC was trying to run the clock and force the Bills to score fast to win. KC doesn’t run as often as they did, which is the whole point made a very long time ago when addressing how many touches KC RBs get. The counter argument was CEH (or any RB in this offense) doesn’t need a lot of touches to be effective.
CEH currently has 85% of the touches and averages 17.8 touches per week. If he loses 15% of those he would be at 15 touches per week. He currently averages 0.74 points per touch. So he would be looking at 11.1 points per week. RB32 currently
CEH currently has 85% of the touches and averages 17.8 touches per week. If he loses 15% of those he would be at 15 touches per week. He currently averages 0.74 points per touch. So he would be looking at 11.1 points per week. RB32 currently
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rockaction
Footballguy
Buffalo is 29th in DVOA defense, 24th against the run. They're terrible.Dr. Octopus said:
rockaction
Footballguy
That said, I don't know how you can ask more out of Helaire than what you got yesterday. He looked good out there.
eta* I think he heard his Swiftian Lilliputian friend had outdone him in Detroit and wanted to step it up a bit.
I kid, but Swift really shone in Detroit and Helaire probably topped that, minus the scores. Swift also got angled from behind on a long run, too. Neither of them is a true take-it-to-the-house guy.
eta* I think he heard his Swiftian Lilliputian friend had outdone him in Detroit and wanted to step it up a bit.
I kid, but Swift really shone in Detroit and Helaire probably topped that, minus the scores. Swift also got angled from behind on a long run, too. Neither of them is a true take-it-to-the-house guy.
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I-ROK
Footballguy
Yes. I think it’s important to realize that almost every team faces a bad defense, and we shouldn’t be quick to point and make big sweeping conclusions based off those outlier games, just as we shouldn’t make sweeping conclusions based off a single bad game vs a tough defense. The fantasy world is fickle in this way
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
At risk of being called a hater, let me state MY position on CEH:
Strengths
I suspect that in a few weeks he'll be averaging weekly output along the lines of:
As always, just my opinion.
Strengths
- Great lateral agility
- Phonebooth quickness
- Good vision
- Lacks power
- Does rookie things
- Not a great pass protector
- No speed
I suspect that in a few weeks he'll be averaging weekly output along the lines of:
- 15 carries for 65 yards
- 2 catches for 15 yards
- .4 TDs
As always, just my opinion.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think most of the people that own him have to admit Bell is a blow to his production. How big of a blow is really unknown no matter how much we discuss it. I’d be worried as a redraft owner I guess. I’m not concerned about his long term as long as he continues to look good.I-ROK said:
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Who plays in a league where a rb who regularly scores over ten points is bottom rb2? Where are these 10 team leagues everyone must be a part of?
Middle of the pack? Sure. I can buy that in a 12-14 teamer. In my 16 team league he's a high end rb2.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Ok, that's precisely why I got very specific with my expectations. I think after Bell gets up to speed CEH will be the 18th-20th best RB. Obviously if you are in a 14 or 16 team league that is a high end RB2. I was obviously assuming a 12 team league when I placed my be on him being a bottom-end RB2. I just think the TDs will be hard to come by. Hope I am wrong and either Bell is washed or Andy is telling the truth. I just think neither is likely.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I don't disagree about tds being hard to come by but I tend to think, especially because he had the game he needed to have Monday, that we're going to be looking at a 70/30 or 60/40 split with CEH on the top end. Yes, his ceiling and floor drop, but with the injuries that happen to RBs he's safely in the middle of that rb2 pack.
I’m thinking in terms of dynasty, so one of the top rookie WRs (e.g. Lamb or Claypool) or a young WR in that range. In redraft I don’t know though I probably wouldn’t move him there bc I think too many people will still ding him for this season bc of Bell.
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I don't know about split percentages but I expect CEH to be primary, not only but primary RB on first and second non obvious passing downs when not inside the opposing teams 10 yard line. I expect Bell to be the primary RB on third downs, obvious passing downs and inside the opposing teams 10 yard line. In fantasy the good news for Bell is that is the "money touches", receptions and TD's. The good news for CEH is if he never saw a touch on third down or inside the other teams 10 yard line he'd not be missing much.
Let me explain.
True story. CEH touched the ball on third down yesterday for the first time since week 2. He's got a grand total of 21 yards rushing and 2 catches for 14 yards this year on third down. In PPR fantasy that's .9 points a game.
Inside the opponents 10 yard line, an area were this CEH truther will admit he's been absolutely awful, he's got 11 carries for a grand total of 3 yards and zero receptions on a target. In PPR that .05 points per game.
So if CEH never gets a third down touch the ROS, never gets a touch inside the opposing teams 10 yard line because 100% of those got to Bell or whoever, he'll lose a whopping .95 points fantasy points a game. OMG, however will CEH owners survive?
As for Bell I expect him to be better at those area's then CEH, especially inside the 10 yard line.
In Mahome's full two years as QB the PPR total team RB production(not counting FB's) was about 24 points last year and about 26 the previous season when he had Hunt for 11 weeks. With the way teams are playing them right now and talent level of CEH/Bell I think this number will tick up a tad but for now I'm going to use 25 points a week up for grabs and just assume Bell and CEH own most of it.(Chargers last year had 33 or 34 PPR points game from their RB's last year so Chiefs situation is good, not quite the gold mine everyone assumes-mainly because Mahomes is opposite of checkdown Charlie).
My guess is CEH will hit 13-15 points a week and Bell will come in somewhere around 10-12 PPR points. For CEH that won't be that big of a dropoff in his actual production to date(15.86). Where it will hurt CEH owners like myself, especially those who used a first round redraft pick on him, is Bell caps his theoretical upside.
Let me explain.
True story. CEH touched the ball on third down yesterday for the first time since week 2. He's got a grand total of 21 yards rushing and 2 catches for 14 yards this year on third down. In PPR fantasy that's .9 points a game.
Inside the opponents 10 yard line, an area were this CEH truther will admit he's been absolutely awful, he's got 11 carries for a grand total of 3 yards and zero receptions on a target. In PPR that .05 points per game.
So if CEH never gets a third down touch the ROS, never gets a touch inside the opposing teams 10 yard line because 100% of those got to Bell or whoever, he'll lose a whopping .95 points fantasy points a game. OMG, however will CEH owners survive?
As for Bell I expect him to be better at those area's then CEH, especially inside the 10 yard line.
In Mahome's full two years as QB the PPR total team RB production(not counting FB's) was about 24 points last year and about 26 the previous season when he had Hunt for 11 weeks. With the way teams are playing them right now and talent level of CEH/Bell I think this number will tick up a tad but for now I'm going to use 25 points a week up for grabs and just assume Bell and CEH own most of it.(Chargers last year had 33 or 34 PPR points game from their RB's last year so Chiefs situation is good, not quite the gold mine everyone assumes-mainly because Mahomes is opposite of checkdown Charlie).
My guess is CEH will hit 13-15 points a week and Bell will come in somewhere around 10-12 PPR points. For CEH that won't be that big of a dropoff in his actual production to date(15.86). Where it will hurt CEH owners like myself, especially those who used a first round redraft pick on him, is Bell caps his theoretical upside.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Going into last week the difference between Edwards-Helaire being an RB6 and an RB12 (where he was at) was literally two TDs... if he didn't have those two called back he's a Top 7 RB. Even with his now capped upside and assuming 60-40 split if he could just go through positive TD regression he'd arguably be a Top 10 RB. I don't worry about 3rd down stuff because you can't lose what you hardly had in the first place. I don't worry about the goal line because there is a distinction from his usage in the Red Zone (Inside the 20), the Green Zone (Inside the 10) and the goal line (Inside the 5). The only thing we as owners can do is watch how the carries play out the next 2 weeks and see how the carries play out.
It should be noted... how much of Darrell Williams will we see? He's still the most trusted back in Pass Pro; will we see him in situation instead of Bell or CEH?
It should be noted... how much of Darrell Williams will we see? He's still the most trusted back in Pass Pro; will we see him in situation instead of Bell or CEH?
The Frankman
Footballguy
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Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Lateral quickness, but no great burst, no power, questionable route running and hands. At worst Bell is gonna be 1b to CEH's 1a. 25% chance Bell relegated CEH to COP back within the next few weeks.
As always. Just my opinion.
As always. Just my opinion.
The Frankman
Footballguy
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SproutDaddy
Footballguy
The Chiefs just aren't running the ball period.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Andy Reid has a tendency to forget about running and then says he needs to do a better job of getting the running game going but then forgets about it again on game day.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Roto has some weird ax to grind against certain players sometimes. Based upon the spin in these last few articles, CEH must be one of them. Bell was 4 for 8 yards and caught one pass for -5. He rushed 6 times for 7 yards last week, he’s terrible. Darryl Williams has had a total of 2 targets for 2 catches the last 3 games yet he is destroying CEH’s upside?SproutDaddy said:
The Frankman
Footballguy
It's that Williams seeing the field at all destroys his upside. If it's a 2-back role that's one thing, but if D. Williams sees the field for his role (remember he was the obvious passing down back and goal line guy before Bell), then that's another back that keeps CEH off the field. CEH needs as many snaps as he can get with some of the weird game scripts he's going through. the good news is he's the lead back, the bad news is like I said in the KC/Carolina game thread; if teams keep playing these fronts to try and stop the run and pass, KC is going to pass. If they sell out on the pass, then they'll go run-dominant (Bills game) with the occasional deep shot.Roto has some weird ax to grind against certain players sometimes. Based upon the spin in these last few articles, CEH must be one of them. Bell was 4 for 8 yards and caught one pass for -5. He rushed 6 times for 7 yards last week, he’s terrible. Darryl Williams has had a total of 2 targets for 2 catches the last 3 games yet he is destroying CEH’s upside?
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
looked great last night.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
He's not bad, just completely unnecessary for that offense.
This is even crazier than the Rams' Greatest Show on Turf. Faulk was an integral part of that. I don't know that we've ever seen something like this Chiefs downfield offense.
This is even crazier than the Rams' Greatest Show on Turf. Faulk was an integral part of that. I don't know that we've ever seen something like this Chiefs downfield offense.
