rockaction
Footballguy
I guess I wouldn't. I think they're about equal value right now, but Jacobs has been no more than a future 3rd away from 1.01 this whole time. Sanders is a different story. He's been more like a current second away from 1.01.
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RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter BigTex
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh absolutely. I'm holding it until the draft ends. I want people to know it's negotiable. Even if Swift winds up in Tampa (I fear he's headed for the other Fla. team) it's still negotiable. Depends what the other person is willing to give. At this point, too many good landing spots for RBs is bad. That makes the 1.01 less valuable to those holding lower first-rounders, and therefore, lower second rounders that one might covet by sliding a few spots.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I think you're right about this, but if true, that would then strengthen the argument to just take your guy there instead of trading back. It's still less optimal than if the 1.01 maintained it's edge, but I guess that ship would have sailed.
MAC_32
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It might if Pittman goes somewhere good today. I would strongly consider that. Roster dependent decision. I suspect most don't like Pittman as much as I do, and we will be finding out more one way or the other today, But imagine Pittman goes to the Packers, Texans, Colts, maybe Jets or even another Raiders pick. Another Eagles WR could start, too. Mims and some others, too.
rockaction
Footballguy
I see what you're saying. I might trade back and take a WR that I covet, though. That would be trading back for me. Otherwise, like you said, I wouldn't trade back for a running back, I'd just take my guy.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am as well. I just can't figure out why he fell. I read a blurb that the Cowboys didnt even interview Lamb because they didnt think they had a shot at him. I wondered if he came across poorly in interviews.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I wouldn't consider it unless you changed the 2021 pick to a #1. If I'm giving up a premium asset I want a shot at another one.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I mean the 1.01 will still command a ton, even if the 1.02 and 1.03 end up comparable. Trade back further to get a WR and get a good deal, sure.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't think he really fell. Oakland prioritized speed, San Francisco clearly has a type, and a bunch of teams in front of them needed OT's. I think the only head scratching pick in front of him was Terrell. And Atlanta wasn't drafting a WR.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
He went at 17 and Jeudy at 15.
I wouldn't really say they "dropped". Teams have needs other than receiver. That's all.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I understand it wasn’t that big of a drop. I just thought he would be the first WR drafted and surprised that he fell to Dallas. I do like the landing spot though.
Dez
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
When was a RBBC established? Hunt was a bell cow for a season and a half. When they released him Williams finished the year as a bell cow. Williams and McCoy started the season is a RBBC until Williams got hurt. Once Williams came back McCoy was inactive most weeks and Williams was a bell cow through the playoffs.
Will it be a RBBC in KC next season? Maybe, but Reid will likely ride the hot hand once one is established. CEH is most likely more talented than Williams, and would likely be at worst the bigger part of the RBBC.
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ffmail4me
Footballguy
I have the 1.1 and 1.2 in one of my dynasty leagues and its hard to imagine 2 more RBs landing in better positions to actually NOT take "right turn Clyde" with one of my picks. If that does happen, all the better for all our rookie drafts as those mid and late firsts will be even better!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Didn’t you back Devonte Booker being the lead back over the rookie in the Freeman thread?
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Zyphros
Footballguy
Reading through this thread is exhausting.
In 2019 there was only 1 RB over 90% snap share, only 2 RB's over 80% snap share, and only 2 more with over 70% snap share last year. He doesn't need to play every down to be a dominant fantasy asset. He's the 1.01 in PPR rather easily IMO.
The top12 RB's last year with the most receptions: Christian McCaffrey (93.4%), Austin Ekeler (56.9%), Alvin Kamara (58.7%), Tarik Cohen (49.8%), Leonard Fournette (82.9%), James White (42.5%), Le'Veon Bell (77.1%), Devonta Freeman (56.7%), Ezekiel Elliott (83.4), Dalvin Cook (59.4), Saquon Barkley (68.2%), Miles Sanders (52.9%). Those are the top12.
Barkley missed a few games, Zeke was being eased in due to missing pre-season and all so their % is probably a little lower than normal. Anyway's my point is that most of these guys are not high % snap share players. CEH is not special, and he won't get a super high snap share. That doesn't mean he won't be good. He's a system RB that landed in the perfect system. I think a plus version of James White is very much realistic. 50-60% seems reasonable. And by the way, 11 of these 12 finished higher than Josh Jacobs last year in full PPR leagues. Yes he's the 1.01 in PPR.
In 2019 there was only 1 RB over 90% snap share, only 2 RB's over 80% snap share, and only 2 more with over 70% snap share last year. He doesn't need to play every down to be a dominant fantasy asset. He's the 1.01 in PPR rather easily IMO.
The top12 RB's last year with the most receptions: Christian McCaffrey (93.4%), Austin Ekeler (56.9%), Alvin Kamara (58.7%), Tarik Cohen (49.8%), Leonard Fournette (82.9%), James White (42.5%), Le'Veon Bell (77.1%), Devonta Freeman (56.7%), Ezekiel Elliott (83.4), Dalvin Cook (59.4), Saquon Barkley (68.2%), Miles Sanders (52.9%). Those are the top12.
Barkley missed a few games, Zeke was being eased in due to missing pre-season and all so their % is probably a little lower than normal. Anyway's my point is that most of these guys are not high % snap share players. CEH is not special, and he won't get a super high snap share. That doesn't mean he won't be good. He's a system RB that landed in the perfect system. I think a plus version of James White is very much realistic. 50-60% seems reasonable. And by the way, 11 of these 12 finished higher than Josh Jacobs last year in full PPR leagues. Yes he's the 1.01 in PPR.
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Taylor and Dobbins have better resumes. It's tough to make a parallel case with Swift since he produced for more seasons, but with that offensive line and in a weak SEC East Swift should've been much better in 2019. So I don't necessarily agree that there is a large gap between what Swift is and what CEH is. The whole idea that we know what any of these guys "are" is tricky anyway, and as yet undetermined in the NFL. If I am ranking them in order of "is" then I'd go Taylor, Dobbins, and then CEH/Swift. If we're accepting the premise of "is" that is
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
This may have been the most anticipated pick I've watched in a long time. Can't imagine going anywhere else with 1.01, even in superflex. Way too much potential as a 5 year KC RB.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Your post on Saquon Barkley. He finished #1 PPR in year 1. You’re lucky the guy didn’t take your bet.
im not calling you out, i’ve been wrong 100x’s of times. nobody in this hobby can be 100% correct. Even the great Wooters.
‘First, internet bets aren't exactly binding.
But sure, if you want to bet on Barkley being a superstar in year 1, then cool. Let's do it. Seems to me that superstar is essentially a top 4 player at his position. If Barkley finishes as a top 4 RB in typical PPR scoring, then I will never post on FBG again and I will delete this account. However, if he finishes outside the top 4, then both of you delete your accounts and never post on FBG again. Deal?”
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Everyone makes mistakes. That’s why no one should talk in absolutes and just give your opinion. No one is an idiot for taking CEH at 1.01. There’s plenty of logic in doing so. Of course he may fail, but to some he’s one of the more talented RBs in the draft and to some he went to one of the best situations. If you believe both of those things it’s far from crazy to take him at 1.01 or favor him over a guy like Jacobs. At this point no one is right and no one is wrongs. Discussion is a good thing though so we can all see the other side.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach texted his quarterback, Pat Mahomes, to gauge his thoughts on who the team should select with their first-round pick.
“I said, ‘Give me a name and don’t think about it,’” Veach said. “He said, ‘Clyde.’ I said, ‘Good.’ ”
“I said, ‘Give me a name and don’t think about it,’” Veach said. “He said, ‘Clyde.’ I said, ‘Good.’ ”
Not really.
If people have discussion about NFL players, we ask they do it here. And less of the bet and challenge stuff.
That's just how we're going to do things here. Thanks for being a part of the boards.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Just in case there is any misunderstanding, I was saying "weird that the other poster didn't understand what *you, Joe Bryant* were saying".
I love these boards and appreciate the way you're trying to do this. I hope I wasn't out of line by playing board mallcop or something. I'm not into the bet/challenging/personal attacks stuff either.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL
Last night, Clyde Edwards-Helaire became the 15th RB drafted by HC Andy Reid, though only the first picked in Round 1.
Here is how the previous 14 fared as rookies:
LINK to chart of 14 RBs drafted by Andy Reid production rookie year
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Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL
Definitely not the high-end production I think many expected to see. Keep in mind Andy was raving about Spencer Ware in 2017 before a torn PCL vaulted Hunt to lead back duties.
Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL
Apr 24
Of course, CEH is the first Day 1 pick during Andy's tenure, so it's a new ball game. I think Damien Williams isn't going away this offseason, but the rookie will get his shot to steal lead back duties in a hurry.
Last night, Clyde Edwards-Helaire became the 15th RB drafted by HC Andy Reid, though only the first picked in Round 1.
Here is how the previous 14 fared as rookies:
LINK to chart of 14 RBs drafted by Andy Reid production rookie year
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL
Definitely not the high-end production I think many expected to see. Keep in mind Andy was raving about Spencer Ware in 2017 before a torn PCL vaulted Hunt to lead back duties.
Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL
Apr 24
Of course, CEH is the first Day 1 pick during Andy's tenure, so it's a new ball game. I think Damien Williams isn't going away this offseason, but the rookie will get his shot to steal lead back duties in a hurry.
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The Finist
Footballguy
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massraider
Footballguy
It's the best system for him to succeed as an NFL player. Hey, good for him.
I wonder if it's the best system for him to be a consistent fantasy producer. With their current passing game, it feels like Reid is all about scheming his athletes, and it's not about feeding this guy or that guy.
For him to be an RB1, he's gonna need to command a lot of targets. I'm not sure I see that as a foregone conclusion.
High floor, no doubt. Dunno if I wanna take the high floor guy at 1.01.
I wonder if it's the best system for him to be a consistent fantasy producer. With their current passing game, it feels like Reid is all about scheming his athletes, and it's not about feeding this guy or that guy.
For him to be an RB1, he's gonna need to command a lot of targets. I'm not sure I see that as a foregone conclusion.
High floor, no doubt. Dunno if I wanna take the high floor guy at 1.01.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Doesn't he also have a high ceiling? Hunt and Williams were pretty damn productive in this offense - and Williams is a JAG.
massraider
Footballguy
I think his ceiling is Alvin Kamara. I also think a guy like Swift's ceiling is Alvin Kamara. I'm wondering which player is more talented, and how Reid might deploy his backs.
I'm completely on the fence, and am going to be open to the notion that Reid sees Brian Westbrook. What I'm really wondering is is CEH a talented enough runner of the football on an NFL level to reach that ceiling. I have no doubt he's a passing game weapon. Is he a good enough runner to be Kamara, and not James White?
I'm asking, I really don't know. Sorting these top backs is fascinating to me.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
good god it's a fantasy football message board......not sunday school.....it's ok to call people out when they miss on something.....if we are allowed to sit around and pat each other on the back all day for great calls and predictions, etc......we should be allowed to also point out when others are wrong.....we can learn from being wrong as well, and maybe decide what posters opinions we want to give more credit too......I can't believe how sensitive it is around here......there is nothing wrong with some back and forth....I'll say it again, the puppies and rainbows mentality around here is so soft.....can we really not handle a little "I told you so"....or something.....again, it should be a two way street, if you can give props you should also be able to give some negative....."ohhhh.....but negative posts destroy threads and it's been our experience it never ends well".....it's not excellent.....whatever.....suck it up buttercups....
barack....this wasn't really meant to just go to you.....just overall in general about the softness around here.......
eta: the team loves Williams and what he has brought to the table since KC kind of "took a chance" on him so to speak....he is still going to get touches when healthy...
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I think he’s a talented enough runner to produce really well in the NFL, and I think you’re right about what will ultimately determine if he’s a RB1. I’m not as good at tracking down full game clips as some on the board but if you look up the Auburn game and the Alabama game from 2019 you’ll see two games where LSU leaned on him especially as a runner to make the offense work. You’ll see receiving highlights in there too but if the clips are sequential there are stretches where he takes over drives as a runner. Against Auburn this was essential bc Derrick Brown and the rest of that d line was terrorizing Burrow. The Bama game was more of a shootout; without CEH that is probably a loss. He took over for stretches and allowed us to pull away.massraider said:
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Exactly. Most of us looking for information and content do not enjoy the back and forth cat fights that eat up a lot space.
If the catfights are including pertinent information and back-up info for each side of the argument they have value. When they reference personal attacks not so much. There is a way to "argue" and a way not to.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Agree with that as well. What I am talking about is the personal attacks or constant "egging" on a poster with mindless banter.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Because as slam dunk as the top 3-4 appear to be, there's the chance one's not. And we don't want to miss out on the guy we should have taken, so we try to predict the future and...round and round we take ourselves.
Terpman22
Footballguy
This is a tough read. Seems to me Andy learned from all his bad beats.
Had Mcnabb, got a super sized version of him in Mahomes
Had Desean.....Tyreek Hill
Now he literally said CEH could be better than Westbrook, who Andy didn't really give a full shot until his 4th year.
First RB he ever drafted in round 1. I guess we can argue 4.60 40 times or proven production, but I mean, is this guy gonna ever see loaded boxes?
1.1 seems like the easiest decision ever for me.
Had Mcnabb, got a super sized version of him in Mahomes
Had Desean.....Tyreek Hill
Now he literally said CEH could be better than Westbrook, who Andy didn't really give a full shot until his 4th year.
First RB he ever drafted in round 1. I guess we can argue 4.60 40 times or proven production, but I mean, is this guy gonna ever see loaded boxes?
1.1 seems like the easiest decision ever for me.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
From a runner standpoint? I don’t see how anyone who watches him RUN the football and not come away impressed. Fumbles, pass protection, receiving skills to some degree...I see that. Not sure how anyone could criticize him as a runner.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Dez
Footballguy
https://player.fm/series/in-this-league-fantasy-football/episode-262-rookie-dynasty-ranks
This site ranks Edwards-Helaire the #4 rookie.
This site ranks Edwards-Helaire the #4 rookie.
