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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Yep same for me and my son. Wife got it. Didn't isolate. We never got it. I tested negative and recently got antibody test and that was negative also.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My personal sense is that the rest of the nation is still mentally stuck in January (or November maybe) and hasn't fully grasped how big a deal widespread vaccination is. If I were governor of a state with a mask mandate and various lockdown orders -- both of which I strongly supported a few months ago -- I would not be lifting them yet, but I'd be making plans to do so in the near future. If I were suddenly made governor of a state that didn't have those measures in place, I wouldn't bother spending political capital on them at this point.
I'm seeing a lot of this stuck-in-two-months-ago mindset in my corner of academia at the moment. This is the time of year when we need to seriously firm up our plans for the upcoming fall semester. Under normal circumstances that's completely routine and no big deal at all, but I'm hearing lots of chatter along the lines of "What is fall going to be like?" It seems like it should pretty obvious to everyone that the fall semester is going to be mostly or entirely normal, but that's not obvious at all to a lot of people, because they're looking at case counts right now and not really thinking ahead to what case counts are going to look like six months from now.
Old people, health care workers, and other folks who used to be "high risk" that we worried about a lot, are now way down in the "basically zero risk" category. We're not quite there yet, but it won't be long at all before people like us -- late-40s or early-50s, basically good health -- are the highest-risk people remaining. And honestly, there's little justification for continuing to shut down society on our account.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
There is a huge difference between planning to lift restrictions and doing so now. Being close to doing so safely makes it even dumber to doing it prematurely.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
Our state announced an expansion of vaccines to essential workers yesterday, and I had found out Monday that we are considered essential. Jumped onto Walgreen's site and luckily found an appointment for Thursday. Almost feel guilty for how quickly I am getting it.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Yeah, I am also NC. Pretty much the same story
Our state announced an expansion of vaccines to essential workers yesterday, and I had found out Monday that we are considered essential. Jumped onto Walgreen's site and luckily found an appointment for Thursday. Almost feel guilty for how quickly I am getting it.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I feel like now that we have multiple vaccine options and will have enough supply for the entire adult population before summer, that it is irresponsible to lift mandates, when we are so close and some have sacrificed so much to get to this light at the end of the tunnel.
While percentages are looking better vs the winter, we actually had an uptick in cases and deaths again this week, and as far as gross infections per day, that is still up.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I would have agreed with this argument a few months ago, but I don't think I do anymore. Things have changed a lot since January.
I agree that it would be silly and irresponsible for people like me -- unvaccinated and no immunity whatsoever to covid -- to stop wearing masks or start hanging out in bars. No argument there. But I don't need any sort of mandate to wear a mask or avoid bars. I've been doing that on my own for a year now.
On the other hand, we now have a pretty large chunk of people who are no longer at any serious risk of contracting covid, either because they've been vaccinated or because they achieved immunity the hard way. There's no particular reason for those people to walk around wearing masks, and there's definitely no reason why they shouldn't be able to enjoy a draft beer or a restaurant meal. The fact that I can't do that stuff isn't a good reason for other people to sit at home.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
The issue I see is that there are far too many people that would take advantage of the situation and engage in those activities even though they weren't vaccinated and didn't have natural immunity from getting COVID before. Those people would be putting people like you and I at increased risk. If states were issuing COVID passports like Israel is doing, that's a different story.
TL;DR - People are dumb and selfish and that will inevitably increase spread. #nannystate
We aren't far from what you are saying, but we aren't that close either in many places. I would like to see 60-70+% of the adult population vaccinated before mask mandates are lifted.
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Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
Almost all of those states are in the top 25 of deaths per capita (Alaska and Montana were lower because of obvious reasons). A great comparison is North and South Carolina. I live in North Carolina, who just last week finally allowed bars to serve people inside. South Carolina has been wide open since May. South Carolina has almost 600 more deaths per million people than North Carolina. Yes, I am sure that business was better for certain industries in SC than in NC, and I am sure that a couple of businesses I saw close in my city would have stayed open with less restrictions. But lives were saved. Some could argue that the businesses should have been saved, but I'm not one of those people. I think we are so close to the finish line that it shouldn't be that hard to keep some restrictions for the next month or two, as we still have vulnerable people who have not been vaccinated.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Well that isn't entirely true, as we know that virus can likely still be transmitted. And without mandates from the state it is up to retailers to become the bad guy and enforce what is still the CDC guidance. And with vaccination still less than 20% you still have large exposure potential for people. Plus that folks will interpret the lifting of mandates of meaning we are back to 2019 behavior, and that simply is not true at this point.
Doug B
Footballguy
And furthermore, this is a huge mystery about this disease (and many other viral infections). It's not something they can test for in a person and determine one way or another.
Coach Morris Buttermaker
Footballguy
FLA has the 2nd oldest population, CALIF has the 5th youngest, they both roughly have the same deaths per capita. CALIF unemployment rate is 9%, FLA 6%. Won't even get into how many businesses have closed in CALIF.
beer 30
Footballguy
SC here. While we've been wide open, mask usage, at least when I am out, is high. Most all businesses require masks to be worn, banks appointments need to be scheduled, the only really big exception is restaurants. I haven't been to one since March 2020 other than take out so not familiar with how good/bad they are about mask usage. I'm on a local restaurant FB page for my area (Fort Mill) and pretty much across the board it seems that masks are being used by servers/hostess's. Wife & I have certainly curtailed our activities but we still live our lives. Haven't been to any big gatherings other than one church service indoors where her and I and about 5 others were wearing masks in a room of about 37, socially distanced. Normally our church is in the parking lot and everyone stays in their cars.Daughter is in school at USC in Columbia and the school is doing it's best to enforce mask usage. The surrounding community is too but the campus bar scene is the problem there. That and dumb kids but it's college.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
I think this is the part that evades a lot of people. People scream "open it up" like its as simple as flicking a light switch and bars and restaurants will be packed again. Intelligent people arent going to act normal until they get the vaccine. The government mandates aren't in place for people who understand and respect science.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Just had this conversation with my wife. She's on the board of our kids' school, so from time-to-time she shares school topics partly to (seemingly) test whether or not I'll get annoyed. She said something like "Yeah, everyone is really stressed out trying to assess all the different possibilities for school in the fall." My reply......failed whatever test she had for me: "Are they all morons? By fall, nobody is staying home from school. We'll have enough vaccines to give ever adult a shot by June or July, and kids basically barely get or transmit the virus. School is happening in the fall; there is nothing to plan for."
Anyway, that was evidently the wrong response. And when I doubled down with "I'm happy to get on a Zoom with the board and the administration if nobody understands math and logic" that went over poorly too.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Most of those people are doing these things anyway. We've seen neighbors and family members host dinner parties (or post photos on FB from bars, restaurants, plane travel, family vacations in crowded places, etc) throughout the past 6 months. The reason we've had rampant spread is because the govt mandates don't work in the US. We have an individualistic-minded society, right or wrong, good or bad. It's part of what makes us the greatest nation on earth -- and 90% of the time that is great, 10% of the time it really sucks.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
I'm conservative when it comes to being careful about the virus and I agree with this 100%. Especially when it comes to schools.Just had this conversation with my wife. She's on the board of our kids' school, so from time-to-time she shares school topics partly to (seemingly) test whether or not I'll get annoyed. She said something like "Yeah, everyone is really stressed out trying to assess all the different possibilities for school in the fall." My reply......failed whatever test she had for me: "Are they all morons? By fall, nobody is staying home from school. We'll have enough vaccines to give ever adult a shot by June or July, and kids basically barely get or transmit the virus. School is happening in the fall; there is nothing to plan for."
Anyway, that was evidently the wrong response. And when I doubled down with "I'm happy to get on a Zoom with the board and the administration if nobody understands math and logic" that went over poorly too.
belljr
Footballguy
My kid school started to go everyday this week. Still only half days but every day. They have been hybrid all along with a couple bumps along the way. We are pretty careful also (my wife a little "crazy" compared to me) - I have taken my daughter to indoor facilities for training at off times so there was no crowd - thats about how risky we've been.
Shes 15 so cant get a vaccine. However - I have been driving her to school and away meets to keep her off the bus, shes worried about that for now. If I'm still wfh in the fall - i may drive her but any sports she will be on the bus. Not sure how softball is going to work.
But having her in school is "worth the risk" to us
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I think you are right about schools being open. I think the question is whether they will be wearing masks, have distancing, have barriers etc. because I don't think kids will be vaccinated by then. There have been kids with complications from COVID and then there is still the whole unknown longer term or long hauler impact of infection as well.Just had this conversation with my wife. She's on the board of our kids' school, so from time-to-time she shares school topics partly to (seemingly) test whether or not I'll get annoyed. She said something like "Yeah, everyone is really stressed out trying to assess all the different possibilities for school in the fall." My reply......failed whatever test she had for me: "Are they all morons? By fall, nobody is staying home from school. We'll have enough vaccines to give ever adult a shot by June or July, and kids basically barely get or transmit the virus. School is happening in the fall; there is nothing to plan for."
Anyway, that was evidently the wrong response. And when I doubled down with "I'm happy to get on a Zoom with the board and the administration if nobody understands math and logic" that went over poorly too.
Doug B
Footballguy
Quoted for truth. I'm not going to support very many businesses until I'm satisfied that I'm in the clear.
Doug B
Footballguy
I could end up being way wrong ... but my spidey-sense about the variants is that they won't end up being all that impactful in the end. They exist, yes, and any one could "bust loose" and evade vaccinations effort as happens every so often with the flu ... but I don't think a COVID variant will ever turn into another 18-month response like the original sets of strains.
belljr
Footballguy
the article I just read suggests many experts fear thats exactly going to happen after reviewing the data the last couple months
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I agree with this. In fact I will go further and say the variants are straight up propaganda thus far.
I have yet to see real world data showing anything close to the predictions that have been bouncing around for months now.
Even the predictions of higher infectivity are all over the place. I just read a BBC article today that mentioned the UK variant could be as low as 10% more infectious.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yea, crazy for something that they were saying was so transmutable and easily caught through the air etc. There is just so much that is not known for sure known.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Open businesses up. I don't see the harm in wearing masks longer though.Texas + Mississippi.
I hope others follow suit. Time to ditch the masks.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Case counts in PA are no longer declining -- flat the last 10 days and still higher than last spring. We are CLOSE. Vaccination rates are going to grow exponentially now. Don't give in to fatigue yet -- we can kill this thing in 60 days!
I NEED TO GET OUT OF THIS HOUSE!!
I NEED TO GET OUT OF THIS HOUSE!!
Doug B
Footballguy
Are they making hard calls and firm predictions of what will happen, or are they talking more in terms of probabilities and what could happen? Scientists and researchers typically will not rule out the worst outcomes of something, even when the data makes them feel pretty optimistic about how things will actually turn out. The popular media instead aims to deal in certainties, and thus often interprets that equivocation as doom-casting which yields effective clickbait.
Capella
Footballguy
Look I am not a “the media is bad” kinda guy but the variants are straight up clickbait at this point. There is just very little scientific evidence that suggests they are anything to be worried about long-term or even short-term really.
Here’s a fantastic Twitter thread about it:
https://twitter.com/k_g_andersen/status/1365461953775235073?s=21
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Sounds like the exact scenario of somebody I know. Tested negative 3 times. Wife teacher, ranch, two kids, etc.
They were asymptomatic. Only got tested because the wife and kids were exposed to a symptomatic case.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
belljr
Footballguy
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belljr
Footballguy
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2AV1T1 
Murray had until recently been hopeful that the discovery of several effective vaccines could help countries achieve herd immunity, or nearly eliminate transmission through a combination of inoculation and previous infection. But in the last month, data from a vaccine trial in South Africa showed not only that a rapidly-spreading coronavirus variant could dampen the effect of the vaccine, it could also evade natural immunity in people who had been previously infected.
“I couldn’t sleep” after seeing the data, Murray, director of the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Reuters. “When will it end?” he asked himself, referring to the pandemic. He is currently updating his model to account for variants’ ability to escape natural immunity and expects to provide new projections as early as this week.
Murray had until recently been hopeful that the discovery of several effective vaccines could help countries achieve herd immunity, or nearly eliminate transmission through a combination of inoculation and previous infection. But in the last month, data from a vaccine trial in South Africa showed not only that a rapidly-spreading coronavirus variant could dampen the effect of the vaccine, it could also evade natural immunity in people who had been previously infected.
“I couldn’t sleep” after seeing the data, Murray, director of the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Reuters. “When will it end?” he asked himself, referring to the pandemic. He is currently updating his model to account for variants’ ability to escape natural immunity and expects to provide new projections as early as this week.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Also in that article, not that it's a determinative statement -- just an example of the usual scientific equivocation:
Furthermore, the researchers in that article lean very hard on the South African variant and what it might do in the near term. But counter to that: Someone's got to explain why numbers in South Africa itself have been dropping so much. Why isn't the South African variant raising havoc on its home turf? The researchers in the article don't touch on that.
nirad3
Footballguy
Both of my elderly parents and my wife got it, but my kids and I did not. We are around my parents here and there.
I go shopping at least once a week, and hang out with friends in an outdoor capacity at least once a month. I mask up when indoors.
There's gotta be some weird set of body-related criteria that dictates who gets what.
I have also never had the flu.
That all said I will get vaccinated as soon as I'm able.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I am still on the fence. I will prob get tested in a week or so. If I had/have it like I suspect, I will skip the vaccine.
If I do not/did not... not sure. Honestly leaning towards no now where as before my daughter/son got it I was leaning to yes.
culdeus
Footballguy
Except nothing is opening up and we are just ditching mask requirements, somewhere, not sure where.
belljr
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Stretching the imagination a bit ... I can think of reasons why a dangerous variant hasn't run roughshod over a region (e.g. if it was identified in a remote area and went ape-schmidt out of the way of population centers). But still.
Doug B
Footballguy
mrip541 posted this in the Political Forum's thread, but it ties in nicely to today's discussion here: 5 Pandemic Mistakes We Keep Repeating (The Atlantic, Zeynep Tufenki, 2/26/2021). It's a little too long to quote in full, but I'll pull a few choice quotes.
There's a ton more in there ... those quotes are just a taste.
There's a ton more in there ... those quotes are just a taste.
